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**StarDust Bum** · 07-18-2010, 11:14 AM

Sunday's Finale

The MLB All-Star break is behind us as the second-half is in full gear and all of the division races are up in the air. It’s fair to say that most pundits didn’t expect the Padres, Rangers and Reds to be sitting in first place but that’s the case and a large part of their success has come at home. All three clubs have posted stellar records on their turf, plus they’ve been great on the road as well.
With 3 ½ months of baseball in the books, tendencies like the above become more known to the public and solid trends develop. Even though this writer believes all things balance out in the long run, sometimes the pendulum doesn’t swing the other way.

One glaring trend that has developed in the first-half has been based on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. Through the first 15 installments on the network, the home team has busted out of the gates with a 12-3 record and two of the losses by the host came in extra innings.

2010 Sunday Night Baseball Log
Date Result ATS Result Total
April 4 N.Y. Yankees 7 at Boston 9 Home, Favorite (-115) OVER 9
April 11 St. Louis 7 at Milwaukee 8 Home, Underdog (+135) OVER 7
April 18 N.Y. Mets 3 at St. Louis 5 Home, Favorite (-270) OVER 7
April 25 Atlanta 0 at N.Y. Mets 1 *Home, Underdog (+105) *UNDER 7
May 2 N.Y. Mets 5 at Philadelphia 11 Home, Underdog (+122) OVER 9
May 9 N.Y. Yankees 3 at Boston 9 Home, Pick'em (-105) OVER 9
May 16 Philadelphia 4 at Milwaukee 2 Away, Favorite (-150) UNDER 10
May 23 N.Y. Yankees 4 at N.Y. Mets 6 Home, Underdog (+128) OVER 7
May 30 Texas 3 at Minnesota 6 Home, Favorite (-135) OVER 8.5
June 6 Milwaukee 4 at St. Louis 3 Away, Underdog (+180) UNDER 8.5
June 13 Chi. White Sox 0 at Chi. Cubs 1 Home, Favorite (-140) UNDER 8.5
June 20 L.A. Dodgers 0 at Boston 2 Home, Favorite (-153) UNDER 9.5
June 27 N.Y. Yankees 8 at L.A. Dodgers 6 Away, Favorite (-110) OVER 7.5
July 4 Kansas City 0 at L.A. Angels 11 Home, Favorite (-180) OVER 9.0
July 11 Chicago Cubs 0 at L.A. Dodgers 7 Home, Favorite (-140) UNDER 7.5
*Game was called after six innings

Delving into the above table further, you can see that favorites have gone 9-5 over this stretch. The May 9 battle between the Yankees and Red Sox closed at -105 each way. Gamblers chasing with the ‘chalk’ on Sunday could have earned a profit of $255 ($900-$645) based on one-unit plays, which isn’t the greatest number but still profitable. If you take out the Brewers’ 4-3 upset on June 6 over the Cardinals, that’s a $200 difference.

Playing favorites and the ‘over’ is a common theme amongst the majority of gamblers in all sports but most bettors understand that baseball is a different animal. “Our baseball lines are set on a game-by-game basis,” said Sportsbook.com oddsmaker Jeremy Ryan. “We rarely adjust a side with a televised matchup but we may favor the ‘over’ slightly, since most customers like to wager on the high side, but even then it’s only 5 cents.”

Total players watched the ‘over’ go 7-2 in the first nine games in the primetime slot, but the ‘under’ closed the first half with a 4-2 run.

The first ESPN encounter of the second-half will feature two NL clubs, Philadelphia and Chicago, going head-to-head. The Phillies have played in the primetime spot twice and they’ve come out victorious each time. The Cubs have played two times as well, and they’ve gone 1-1, winning at home and losing on the road.

Can Chicago keep the home trend rolling tonight? The Cubbies took the first two games (12-6, 4-3) against the Phillies but they blew a lead on Saturday. Holding a 1-0 lead in the ninth with two outs, Plácido Polancohit a game-tying single off Carlos Mármol and then watched the pitcher walk an additional two more runs. The Phillies wound winning 4-1 and cashed tickets as road favorites (-120). The combined five runs never threatened the closing total of five runs.

To no surprise, the Phillies have been made favorites (-165) for the fourth and final game of this series and its all about the pitching matchup.

Roy Halladay (10-7, 2.19 ERA) was the prize acquisition this offseason for Philadelphia and the ace started the season by winning six of his first seven starts. Things tempered a bit in May and June as the Phillies went 3-7 over his next 10 appearances. Fortunately, he got things right and closed the first-half of the season with two solid outings, tossing two complete games and surrendering just one run. Halladay hasn’t faced the Cubs this season but he did face them twice during interleague play when he was with Toronto. Chicago won both those games, but Halladay only gave up four earned runs over 12 innings.

Countering Halladay tonight for the Cubs will be Tom Gorzellany (4-5, 3.16 ERA) and he’s been in and out of the bullpen this season. Even though the lefthander has only had 12 starts, his last three appearances were solid. He’s notched 16 innings over this span, and only gave up 15 hits and five earned runs, while striking out 17. The Cubs have gone 2-1 during this stretch, with the offense scoring 16 runs in his two wins, and zero in the loss. The Phillies have gone 10-11 against lefties this season, but seven of those victories have come on the road. Gorzelanny faced Philadelphia on the road in mid-May and he threw 6 2-3 shutout innings and the Cubs notched a 4-1 win. He gave up three hits, two walks and struck out five in the victory.

After this series, Philadelphia will head to St. Louis for its second straight four-game set against NL Central foes. The Cubbies will remain at Wrigley for six more games, starting with a three-game series against the Astros on Monday.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-18-2010, 11:15 AM

Torre undecided on managing future

ST. LOUIS (AP) -Joe Torre wants to wait a few more months before deciding whether he wants to manage after this season.

Torre, who'll be 70 on Sunday, is in the final year of a three-year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Before the season, talks were cut off.

Torre said Friday he wanted to make sure he retired when he was still healthy and active. Attending Wimbledon is one of the things Torre said he wanted to do.

``I'm not making any long-range plans,'' Torre said Friday. ``Not that I'm concerned about anything, I just know there are other things I want to do while I still feel good enough to continue to be active.

``I'm just going to wait toward the end of the year.''

By September, Torre expects to have a good idea what he'd like to do.

As for now, he said managing is still exciting for him, although he's not enamored of all the travel. The Dodgers were in third place in the NL West, four games back, after dropping the first three games of a four-game series against the Cardinals to start the second half of the season.

``It's still exciting, the game in the dugout is still exciting,'' Torre said. ``If you do it right, this job consumes you.''

**StarDust Bum** · 07-18-2010, 11:18 AM

At the Gate - Sunday

Paddy O’Prado sure looked like an underlay at 3/5 in yesterday’s $600,000 Virginia Derby (G2) at Colonial Downs, but the colt showed his Colonial Turf Cup (G2) win over the same turf course was no fluke.

The colt overcame a less than perfect trip to draw clear smartly in the stretch and drew off to win by 1 ½ lengths over my top pick Interactif, returning $3.20.

The recommended exacta returned $9.00, not exactly the type of payoff that gets the pulse racing. Neither did the $2 trifecta payoff of $32.60.

Today is closing day at Belmont Park, with racing resuming next Friday with the start of the 40-day Saratoga meeting.

Racing at the Spa will be six days a week, with Tuesday dark, and will offer up 35 graded stakes over the course of the meet.

The marquee event is the $1 million Travers (G1), which appears likely to draw a stellar field of three year olds including the Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, Preakness winner Lookin At Lucky, and Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer.

Others pointing toward the race include First Dude, Ice Box, and Fly Down, and Trappe Shot.

I will have a preview of the Spa meeting early next week, and of course will offer my full card analysis each day of the meeting.

To purchase my full card report for Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.

To purchase my full card report for Monmouth Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.

Here is the opening race from Monmouth Park to get our day off to a good start:

MTH Race 1 Md $25,000 (12:50 ET)
#9 The Duke Rules 6/1
#6 Time to Be Royal 6/1
#8 Tamaqua 20/1
#5 Bavaria 9/2

Analysis: #9 The Duke Rules was sent off as the 5/2 favorite in his debut, but was bumped coming out of the gate, raced wide much of the trip, and never threatened in a well beaten ninth place finish. The son of Peace Rules drops a notch in class and I am going to give him another look here as the barn has been sending out live runners and breaking from the outside with a better break figures to be in the mix in this spot, and we might see a decent price.

#6 Time to Be Royal returns off a year layoff for the Perkins barn that is 11% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. This guy showed some promise in his debut, dueling for the early lead and holding on well for the runner up spot. The works are nothing special, but this is not a real tough group, and t least we know this guy has shown some early speed.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 6,9 / 5,6,8,9
TRI: 6,9 / 5,6,8,9 / 2,5,6,8,9

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 9 Clm $25,000N2L (5:17 ET)
#7 Australis Princess 3/1
#6 Playa Bonita 7/2
#5 Lost At Dawn 8/1
#2 Cougar Cruise 10/1

Analysis: #7 Australis Princess stretches back out to a route here after racing wide in a fifth place finish going seven furlongs, beaten two lengths for the top spot. The filly can handle the extra ground and she appears headed in the right direction as she makes her third start off the claim by the underrated DiPrima barn. Her maiden score came over the turf here at today's distance.

#6 Playa Bonita was off a beat slow, had to steady briefly turning for home and then again nearing the eighth pole, came through some traffic and finished up well for the runner up spot. A clean trip makes her tough here as she makes her third start of her current form cycle for the Dutrow barn.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 2,5,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 2,5,6,7 / 2,4,5,6,7,10

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:

MTH Race 8 Clm $22,000 (4:21 ET)
#7 Storming Off 9/2
#1 Zappa 3/1
#11 Bon Marie 7/2
#8 Polished 20/1

Analysis: #7 Storming Off was bumped coming out of the gate, made a good middle move and took over the lead briefly, then ran out of steam, fading to finish fifth. It was a decent effort considering the 7 1/2 month layoff and he should be tighter for his second start off the bench. The gelding has a pair of wins over the grass here including a win against $25K foes last fall.

#1 Zappa came with a good late rally and came up just a head shy last out. He was claimed from the Miller barn and goes for the Rigatteri barn that is 21% winners first off the claim. He could regress off his last pair of hard fought efforts, but the barn does pretty good work with recent claims and is overdue for a few wins at the meet.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,7,8,11
TRI: 1,7 / 1,7,8,11 / 1,.2,3,7,8,11

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R3: #1 Been a Pleasure 8/1
R5: #2 Of All Times 15/1
R6: #4 Call the General 12/1
R8: #8 Rosie’s Run 10/1
R8: #7 Holy Blitzer 8/1
R9: #5 Lost At Dawn 8/1
R9: #2 Cougar Cruise 10/1
R10: #1 Golda Karakorum / #1a Hookedon Karakorum 8/1

Good luck today!

**Kaptain** · 07-18-2010, 11:52 AM

gl today Bum...thanks

**bigdog237** · 07-18-2010, 12:10 PM

good luck SDB

**StarDust Bum** · 07-18-2010, 01:31 PM

Added......late line

Sunday, July 18Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit - 1:05 PM ET Detroit -134 500
Cleveland - Over 10 500

Philadelphia - 8:05 PM ET Philadelphia -164 500
Chi. Cubs - Under 7.5 500

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