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**StarDust Bum** · 07-17-2010, 01:10 PM

Saturday FOX Tips

The Saturday FOX baseball card employs only two games, but each matchup looms large in the playoff race. The Cardinals grabbed each of the first two games from the Dodgers in convincing fashion to cut into the Reds' lead atop the NL Central. We'll look at the rematch of last season's NLDS between St. Louis and Los Angeles, but start in the Big Apple with the top two dogs in the American League.

Rays at Yankees - 4:10 PM EST

These two clubs are separated by just three games inside the AL East as they continue a three-game weekend set in the Bronx. A.J. Burnett put a halt to a six-start winless streak by beating the A's his last time out, while Jeff Niemann looks to keep his winning ways going for the Rays.

Burnett (7-7, 4.75 ERA) rebounded from a rash of subpar outings to silence the Oakland bats in a 6-2 victory last Wednesday. The Yankees' right-hander scattered five hits and two earned runs in seven innings, his second straight quality start following five consecutive non-quality outings. Many of Burnett's horrible starts came on the highway, as the Little Rock native owns a 2.96 ERA at Yankee Stadium. Unfortunately, his worst home outing came against these Rays on May 19 as Burnett allowed nine hits and six earned runs in 6.2 innings of a 10-6 setback.

Niemann (7-2, 2.77 ERA) continues to be nearly an automatic win every time he toes the rubber for Tampa Bay. The Rays are 14-4 in his 18 starts, including a perfect 8-0 mark on the road. Niemann has been involved in five straight outings decided by one run, as the Rays are 4-1 in this stretch (the lone loss came on the Edwin Jackson no-hitter against Arizona). The ex-Rice Owl has faced the Yankees three times in his career, all in 2009. The Rays went 2-1 in those three starts, including a road victory last May as a $1.55 underdog, despite tossing just 3.1 innings in an 8-6 win.

The Yankees are 7-2 the last nine meetings in the Bronx, as New York pulled off a walk-off victory in the series opener last night. All six matchups have finished 'over' the total this season, while five of Niemann's seven road starts have sailed 'over' the total.

Dodgers at Cardinals - 4:10 PM EST

St. Louis has avenged a June three-game sweep by Los Angeles at Chavez Ravine by outscoring the Dodgers, 15-5 in two victories of this series. The logjam in the NL West continues to get tighter with the first-place Padres leading the fourth-place Giants by 3 ½ games. The Dodgers sit one game ahead of San Francisco and 2 ½ behind San Diego, but Colorado is still lurking three games off the pace.

The Cardinals are hanging tough in the NL Central behind the Reds, only a ½ game behind entering Friday's action. Adam Wainwright (13-5, 2.11 ERA) looks for his 10th home win of the season, owning a ridiculous 9-0 mark at Busch Stadium, as the Cards are outscoring opponents by nearly five runs a game. The former closer has allowed just one earned run in his last three starts, all victories. Wainwright was on the losing end of a 4-3 decision at Dodger Stadium on June 9, giving up eight hits and four earned runs in six innings of work. The Cardinals' righty dominated the Dodgers at home last July by tossing eight scoreless innings in a 10-0 drubbing of Los Angeles.

Hiroki Kuroda (7-7, 3.87 ERA) has hit the skids following a strong start to the season, going 2-6 after a 5-1 run out of the gate. Kuroda is not getting squeezed either, allowing 14 earned runs his previous three outings, including losses to the Marlins and Diamondbacks. The Dodgers own a 4-1 mark when Kuroda pitches as a road favorite, but an 0-3 ledger when he is listed as a road underdog. Unfortunately for the righty, Kuroda opened as a $1.50 'dog. Fortunately, Kuroda held the Cardinals' bats in check by scattering four hits in seven scoreless innings of a 1-0 shutout of St. Louis on June 8.

Since the start of last season, the home team is 11-4 in this series, including a 5-0 mark in 2010. St. Louis has taken five of the last seven meetings at Busch Stadium with the teams combining for eight runs or less five times in this span.

What else to watch for:

-- The NL Central-leading Reds will get a boost for their rotation as Edinson Volquez makes his first start of the season against the Rockies. Volquez, who finished 17-6 in his All-Star season of 2008, is recovering from Tommy John surgery last summer. Another fireballer takes the ball for Colorado, as Jorge De La Rosa gets the ball for only his second start since late April. The southpaw missed nearly two months with a left middle finger injury.

-- The Rangers and Red Sox continue their four-game set at Fenway Park with a pair of aces taking the mound. Cliff Lee makes his second start in a Texas uniform, trying to rebound from a loss in his Rangers' debut to the Orioles as a $3.80 favorite. John Lackey goes for the Sox, looking for his first win in three starts after losing to Toronto and Baltimore. Last season, the Angels went 1-4 in Lackey's five starts against Texas, which included the famous two-pitch outing in Arlington in which the righty was ejected for beaning Rangers' second baseman Ian Kinsler.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-17-2010, 01:13 PM

For those who doesn't have enough action here are some HORSE Action.......

At the Gate - Saturday

A power outage knocked out racing on Friday at Belmont Park, but all indications are we will be back in action in the Big Apple on Saturday.

The feature is the $200,000 Jaipur (G3), a six furlong sprint on the turf that drew a field of seven.

There are two stakes on the Monmouth Park card for today, the $100,000 Klassy Briefcase and the $100,000 Serena’s Song.

In today’s column, I included the $600,000 Virginia Derby (G2), the marquee race at the summer meeting at Colonial Downs.

The race has produced some top three year old turf runners in past years, including Kitten’s Joy, Gio Ponti, English Channel, and Go Between.

This year’s renewal is a battle between three runners that went down the Triple Crown Trail this spring.

Paddy O’Prado is the likely favorite off his win in the Colonial Turf Cup (G2), while Stately Victor and Interactif are looking to bounce back off sub par efforts in Triple Crown races.

To purchase my full card report for Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.

To purchase my full card report for Monmouth Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.

Here is the opening race from Monmouth Park to get our day off to a good start:

MTH Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:50 ET)

#3 Souper Spectacular 3/1

#1 Unprecedented / #1a Ulterior Motive 9/5

#7 Capital Market 8/1

#2 Enchanted Circle 4/1

Analysis: #3 Souper Spectacular stretches out to a route for his second career start after making a mild late rally to finish fourth in his debut. The $1.1 million purchase should appreciate the extra ground as she is by Giant's Causeway out of the mare Vertgineux, who has dropped three stakes winners including $6 million earner Zenyatta and $1 million earner Balance, who both are better going long. The former Pletcher assistant Benzel usually does not have them fully cranked first time out, so no doubt this colt will move forward with a race under his belt.

#1 Unprecedented had to check at the break and was unable to catch a loose on the lead gate to wire winner last out in a runner up finish. The $400K purchase makes her second start off a five-month layoff for the Dutrow barn. She is the stronger half of the entry.

Wagering

WIN: #3 to win at 5/2 or better.

EX: 1,3 / 1,2,3,7

TRI: 1,3 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,7,8

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 9 The Jaipur G3 (5:17 ET)

#7 Perfect Officer 5/1

#5 Formidable 9/5

#4 Stradivinsky 2/1

#2 Dubai Rainbow 10/1

Analysis: #7 Perfect Officer may get a perfect set up here as the fractions should be sharp and this gelding could be flying late. Last out he made a mild late run to finish fourth in the Wolf Hill at Monmouth Park going 5 1/2 furlongs. The winner of that race was Silver Timber, who ran second in the McSorley in his next start. The runner up True to Tradition came back to beat $25K starter allowance foes and then run third in the Seabiscuit at Suffolk. Fifth place finisher Heros Reward ran second in a Grade 2 at Woodbine in his next start. The gelding popped a bullet work for the Weaver barn that is always tough on turf, and we should catch a fair price.

#5 Formidable pressed the early pace and weakened to finish fourth last out on the main track. The five year old has only been on turf twice with a win and a fourth, earning solid numbers in both of those efforts. The hall of fame barn has been on fire at the meet, hitting at a 39% clip.

Wagering

WIN: #7 to win at 4/1 or better.

EX: 5,7 / 2,4,5,7

TRI: 5,7 / 2,4,5,7 / 2,4,5,6,7

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:

MTH Race 11 The Serenas Song (5:50 ET)

#6 Millennia 6/1

#2 C C's Pal 2/1

#1 Classic Affair / #1a Happy Week 8/5

#3 Silver La Belle 9/2

Analysis: #6 Millennia was a good looking winner last out on turf versus Alw-1 foes and was flattered when the runner up Sea Gull came back to beat Alw-1 foes in her next outing on June 26. The filly has only been on conventional dirt once in her career, a runner up finish two back going seven furlongs. Pedigree wise this gal seems better suited for dirt. She is a half to multiple stakes winner Fatal Bullet ($1 million). Decent value in this spot if we see most of the 6/1 ML.

#1 C C's Pal beat Alw-2 foes last out after coming up short in three graded stakes in her previous outings. She did not fire at Pimlico two back, but her efforts in the Comely (G3) and Florida Oaks (G3) are good enough to be in the mix here.

Wagering

WIN: #6 to win at 4/1 or better.

EX: 2,6 / 1,2,6

TRI: no play

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Colonial Downs:

CNL Race 12 The Virginia Derby G2 (6:00 ET)

#3 Interactif 3/1

#7 Paddy O’Prado 7/5

#2 Krypton 7/2

#8 Stately Victor 8/1

Analysis: #3 Interactif is coming off a disappointing seventh place finish in the Belmont Stakes (G1) where the colt was up close to the pace and tired to finish nine lengths behind the winner. The colt won his first two starts on grass as a two-year-old, taking the With Anticipation and Bourbon, both Grade 3’s. He was only beaten ¾ of a length in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G2) in a third place finish. He started his three-year-old campaign with a game nose loss in the Hallandale Beach on turf at Gulfstream Park in February. That is four solid efforts on turf, and he figures to offer a bit more value for the top spot than our second choice.

#7 Paddy O’Prado bounced back off a poor effort in the Preakness Stakes (G1) with a good looking win in the Colonial Turf Cup (G2) at Colonial Downs, and this guy has not run badly on turf in his five starts, which include a third behind our top pick last year in the With Anticipation. The colt owns the top last out speed fig and is a logical threat to repeat here, but at odds of even money or 6/5, I am looking elsewhere for value.

#2 Krypton tracked the early pace and finished well to take the Hill Prince (G3) last out at Belmont Park. The colt earned a career top speed figure in that effort, but he really did not beat a very tough field, facing just four foes. His two previous starts on turf were a fourth and a second in Alw-1 company at Gulfstream Park, and he did catch above average fields in those two losses. He appears to outclass the rest of the field in here, but we would have to see more than the 7/2 morning line to make him look attractive enough to beat the top pair in here.

Wagering

WIN: Interactif to win at 5/2 or better.

EX: 3,7 / 2,3,7,8

TRI: 3,7 / 2,3,7,8 / 1,2,3,7,8

Live Longshots:

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park

R2: #6 Wollaston Bay 8/1

R3: #3 Five Boroughs 12/1

Good luck today!

**StarDust Bum** · 07-17-2010, 01:14 PM

Florida showdown on Saturday Arena board

Much of the power in the Arena Football League resides in the state of Florida, where all three teams are in the playoff hunt. Two of them will get together on Saturday night in a game which could decide the Southern Division championship and corresponding top seed in the American Conference Playoffs. Tampa Bay has won eight straight games since losing to Jacksonville in early May at home. The rematch finds the Storm on the road, and oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com are gauging the game as a tossup. Let’s look at this key game plus some tidbits from the four others on the Saturday board.

Tampa Bay (10-3) is the league’s hottest team and leads Jacksonville by a game in the standings. However, the fact that the Sharks won the first game between the teams back in May gives them the tie-breaker edge should it come down to that in three weeks. Jacksonville gained a season-high 342 yards through the air in that 46-43 decision, but the game really came down to the Storm turning the ball over five times.

Jacksonville has only lost once this year at home, to Arizona last month, and is yielding just 49.5 PPG in front of the home folks. QB Aaron Garcia and the offense have gotten hot of late as they’ve topped the 60-point mark in back-to-back games for the first time this year. Garcia is a savvy veteran capable of leading the Sharks on a postseason run.

Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS on the road, having won its last five, including the last two by 20+ points each time.

The Storm has won eight straight games since a 2-3 start but has only beaten one team with a winning record during that span. They have beaten the pointspread in five straight games. One of the most intriguing handicapping aspects about this game concerns the schedule strengths. Tampa Bay has actually faced the league’s weakest schedule to date, with opponents averaging a 45.8 ******* Power Rating. Conversely, Jacksonville has faced the league’s 7th toughest schedule with an average rating of 49.8, a full 4.0 difference. That leads to a ******* Outplay Factor Rating which finds Jacksonville as a 1.5-point favorite.

This week’s hottest bit of handicapping information from the FoxSheet favors Tampa Bay though. It is a long-running successful system:

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TAMPA BAY) - with a good offense - averaging 6.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 330 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. (23-6 since 1996.) (79.3%, +16.4 units. Rating = 2*)

The ******* Power Rating shows that Tampa Bay should be favored by 3 points here. Kickoff is slotted for 7:05 PM ET on local markets in Florida.

The rest of the Arena Football Betting Board for Saturday shows four games. Here they are with a key FoxSheets tidbit from each:

(355) OKLAHOMA CITY at (356) CLEVELAND (-5.5) 7:00 PM
Oklahoma City puts its 3-game winning streak on the line at Cleveland. The Gladiators are hot offensively, having scored 75 points or more in three of their last six games. Their offensive prowess leads to a nice FoxSheets system:

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEVELAND) - with an excellent offense - averaging 320 or more total yards/game. (44-21 since 1996.) (67.7%, +20.9 units. Rating = 1*)

(359) DALLAS at (360) CHICAGO (-16.5) 8:00 PM
Chicago is one of four teams that has clinched a playoff berth and has what should be a cakewalk lined up for Saturday, hosting Dallas, who has lost its L10 games. The Rush won the earlier meeting between these teams, but only by 7 points in Dallas. This time around they’ll need to be much better to cover the much bigger number. Note that neither of the ******* Game Estimators calls for a Chicago cover, averaging a win of just 58-49.

(361) ORLANDO at (362) MILWAUKEE (-8) 8:00 PM
Orlando has been drowning in a schedule that has seen them face nine straight opponents that currently have at least six wins. Saturday’s game at Milwaukee will be #10 in a row. Amazingly, the Predators have managed to stay right in the thick of the playoff picture at 6-7, having gone 5-4 during the brutal 9-game stretch. They will be looking to sweep Milwaukee on the season, having beaten the Iron 58-54 back in May at home. This game presents a rare situation where a team is actually playing as a smaller underdog on the road than it was at home to the same opponent earlier in the season. However, in reality the Iron are trending down and Orlando would be trending up if not for the brutal schedule.

(363) TULSA (-4) at (364) ALABAMA 8:30 PM
Tulsa is rather quietly becoming a team to watch out for on the Arena Football landscape. The Talons are in control of the Southwest Division at 8-5 and can clinch the division title with a win. However, Tulsa has been a different team on the road this season as compared to at home, and will need to turn that trend around before the postseason if they should hope to make a run. While going 6-1 in front of the home folks, the Talons are just 2-4 on the road while yielding 61.3 PPG. It’s been much of the same for Alabama, who boasts a 4-2 mark at home and is in need of a critical victory here. Tulsa is the road favorite, but home/road dichotomy seems to suggest the Vipers could be worthy of your betting dollar as the dog.

**Kaptain** · 07-17-2010, 05:30 PM

as always.....gl and thanks SD Bum

**StarDust Bum** · 07-17-2010, 08:21 PM

Thanks Kapt.....day's off to a rather good start so far........

**StarDust Bum** · 07-17-2010, 08:23 PM

Preview: Mets (48-42) at Giants (49-41)

Game: 3
Venue: AT&T Park
Date: July 17, 2010 9:05 PM EDT

Superb pitching has the San Francisco Giants surging. It also has the New York Mets baffled.

Matt Cain will try to give the Giants another stellar effort on the mound Saturday night and help San Francisco beat the sputtering Mets for the third straight game.

San Francisco (49-41) has won four straight and nine of 11 to get back into the thick of the NL West race. Outstanding pitching has been the biggest reason.

Barry Zito turned in the latest stellar effort Friday, going eight innings and combining with closer Brian Wilson on a three-hitter in a 1-0 win over the Mets (48-42). That came one night after ace Tim Lincecum opened this four-game series with a six-hitter in a 2-0 Giants victory.

"That just goes to show how good our pitching staff is," said first baseman Aubrey Huff, who is 4 for 6 in this series. "If we can just scratch across a few here and there we have a great chance of winning every night."

New York hasn't shown much punch at the plate recently, batting .222 and totaling six runs during a 1-5 stretch that's included three shutout losses.

The Mets are trying to avoid being shut out three times in a row for the first time since July 25-27, 1992.

"You can say that (Zito) pitched really well, but I still believe at some point that we have to unlock this offense a little bit," manager Jerry Manuel said. "We've got to do a better job."

Cain (6-8, 3.34 ERA) will try to take advantage of the struggling Mets to get his first win since June 13, when he capped a personal four-game winning streak by beating Oakland. The right-hander is 0-4 with a 7.45 ERA in five starts since compiling a 0.55 ERA in his previous four.

Cain was roughed up in his most recent outing July 9, giving up eight runs - four in the seventh - and 11 hits including two homers in 6 2-3 innings of an 8-1 loss at Washington.

Cain is 3-3 with a 4.26 ERA in seven starts versus the Mets. He limited them to three runs over 13 1-3 innings in two starts last year. Both games resulted in San Francisco wins, with Cain getting credit for one.

Injuries are becoming a nuisance for the Mets, who are five games behind NL East-leading Atlanta after losing the first two contests of their key 11-game road trip.

Shortstop Jose Reyes was a late scratch Thursday due to pain in his right side, and will not be available until at least Sunday.

On the mound, the club had to push Mike Pelfrey's scheduled Saturday start back to Monday at Arizona after he complained of stiffness in his neck following a flight to San Francisco.

"If we stay healthy as a team we're going to be fine," said center fielder Carlos Beltran, who has a hit in each of his first two games since returning from offseason knee surgery.

Hisanori Takahashi (7-3, 4.15) was Monday's original scheduled starter, but will instead replace Pelfrey.

The rookie left-hander's last appearance was three scoreless innings of relief during last Saturday's 4-0 defeat to Atlanta as Pelfrey took the loss.

Takahashi's only appearance against the Giants also came in relief, as he struck out two in a perfect 11th to get the win in a 5-4 victory May 8 at home.

Takahashi is 3-0 with a 3.80 ERA in four road starts.

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