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**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2010, 06:25 PM

MLB Handicapping Study – Divisional Dogs

I had a conversation last week with a FoxSheets subscriber who claimed to have consistent success in betting baseball by following just a short list of fundamental concepts and strategies. While some of them were FoxSheets info-related in terms of systems and power ratings, etc, one of them was much more straight forward and it involved simply looking for value-laden underdogs in divisional games. Of course this piqued my curiosity, and to scratch that itch, I went back and did a study analyzing the performance of divisional dogs over the last decade.

One of the most fundamental beliefs in anyone who puts more weight in divisional games is that there is a familiarity that decreases the theoretical talent margin between two teams. They face each other so many times each season that they are well-versed in the strengths and weaknesses of each player and thus the opponent as a whole. Realistically, the oddsmaker doesn’t take this into account as much, since they are typically building their lines from a more universal set of power ratings that doesn’t recognize situational factors such as divisional play. Obviously the underlying thought is that this disconnect should lend value to anyone who believes in the power of the rivalry.

So, having theoretically been convinced that there was some merit to this divisional underdog theory, I set out to find out the actual results. I took all of the divisional games played in Major League Baseball between 2000 and this past Sunday (July 11th) and tabulated the wins, losses, and betting units won had a bettor backed every divisional dog in that time frame. The results are below.

Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Season (2000-2010)

Season: W-L (PCT), UNITS
2000: 224-293 (43.3%), +24.4 Units
2001: 284-376 (43.0%), +8.2 Units
2002: 251-417 (37.6%), -57 Units
2003: 265-404 (39.6%), -2.5 Units
2004: 283-403 (41.3%), +4.9 Units
2005: 318-400 (44.3%), +43.9 Units
2006: 301-411 (42.3%), +2.1 Units
2007: 306-377 (44.8%), +53.4 Units
2008: 308-406 (43.1%), +22.1 Units
2009: 270-421 (39.1%), -39.6 Units
2010: 134-187 (41.7%), +1.4 Units
TOTAL: 2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units

Average Road Underdog Line: -158
Average Return on Investment = 0.9%

As you can see, the divisional road underdog has been generally successful, producing 61.3 units of profit over the last decade-plus, with a R.O.I. of about 0.9%. Now, that isn’t enough to really wow a systems handicapper, but it does suggest that the strategy of backing road divisional dogs will at least keep the average joe in the fight against the oddsmakers. One important thing to note from the season-by-season results is that in only three of the 11 seasons has the road divisional dog netted a loss. So it can be said that the results of 2002 & 2009 in particular skew the numbers of what would be an otherwise more solid theory.

Divisional Home Underdogs in MLB by Season (2000-2010)

Season: W-L (PCT), UNITS
2000: 127-112 (53.1%), +49.5 Units
2001: 157-215 (42.2%), -22.4 Units
2002: 156-210 (42.6%), -4.2 Units
2003: 171-199 (46.2%), +25.6 Units
2004: 150-187 (44.5%), +11 Units
2005: 133-185 (41.8%), -14.9 Units
2006: 162-187 (46.4%), +15.3 Units
2007: 152-184 (45.2%), +0.8 Units
2008: 147-160 (47.9%), +12.2 Units
2009: 143-184 (43.7%), -14.4 Units
2010: 74-77 (49.0%), +13.3 Units
TOTAL: 1572-1900 (45.3%), +71.8 Units

Average Home Underdog Line: +129
Average Return on Investment = 2.1%

The divisional home underdog has proven over doubly effective than those on the road in terms of R.O.I., producing about 2.1% over the last 11 seasons, with a net profit of 71.8 units. Again, only four seasons netted a loss during that time span, with 2002 & 2009 again being part of the group. It is interesting to see that divisional home dogs up through the all-star break in 2010 have won 49% of their games, the highest winning percentage since 2000, with a R.O.I. of 8.8%.

Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)

HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS
-300 or higher: 24-66 (26.7%), +5.7 Units
-250 to -299: 58-148 (28.2%), -9.6 Units
-220 to -249: 143-252 (36.2%), +47.8 Units
-190 to -219: 236-410 (36.5%), +25.7 Units
-170 to -189: 305-501 (37.8%), +4.4 Units
-150 to -169: 529-801 (39.8%), -25.7 Units
-130 to -149: 786-973 (44.7%), +29.2 Units
-116 to -129: 435-477 (47.7%), +12.5 Units
-106 to -115: 428-467 (47.8%), -28.7 Units
TOTAL: 2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units

As you can see, there are some distinct breaks in success rates by divisional road dogs when you consider the line range in which they are playing too. There is a so-called “sweet spot” when the home team is favored in the -190 to -249 range. In these games since 2000, the road divisional dog has only won about 36.4% of its games, but has produced 73.5 units of profit. That equates to a R.O.I. of 7.1%. Now that type of return is something that mutual fund managers would kill for nowadays. If only us bettors had dropped our 401K money into this option rather than on Wall Street!

Divisional Home Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)

HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS
+105 to -104: 440-456 (49.1%), -5.2 Units
+106 to +120: 456-480 (48.7%), +40.8 Units
+121 to +154: 475-585 (44.8%), +54.7 Units
+155 to +199: 167-289 (36.6%), -6.2 Units
+200 or higher: 34-90 (27.4%), -12.3 Units
TOTAL: 1572-1900 (45.3%), +71.8 Units

The break in line range performance by home divisional dogs is very transparent. Those playing in the +106 to +154 range have been a solid investment over the last decade-plus, going 931-1065 for +95.5 units of profit. Compare that to the home divisional dogs in every other range that have netted -23.7 units of loss. Considering that 1,996 games have produced 4.8% R.O.I. over the 11-year span, bettors have a strategy in front of them that has produced both handsomely and consistently. At an average of 190 games per season, bettors can expect to have an opportunity to take advantage about once a night during the baseball season.

Summary
The results of the divisional dogs study are encouraging as it doesn’t take a whole lot of digging to come up with plays that should produce profits over the long haul, assuming of course that proper money management techniques are held to. Of course, this study was conducted using dime lines as the basis, and bettors paying higher vig than that is just cheating themselves. I would have no problem recommending the divisional dog strategy as a basis for beginning your baseball handicapping each day. When you spice in bullpen analysis, systems, and other key strength indicators, you should have all you need to build a nice bankroll each summer.

**bryce** · 07-15-2010, 06:25 PM

Good luck SDB.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2010, 06:27 PM

Thursday Tips

The second half of the baseball season resumes on Thursday with a seven-game card as the countdown towards the trade deadline and the postseason begins. Four games involve both teams in playoff contention, including Tim Lincecum and the Giants hosting the Mets. We'll focus on some of the earlier first pitches, starting with the top club in the NL East returning home off a successful road trip.

Brewers at Braves - 7:10 PM EST

Atlanta dropped nine straight games at the end of April, but those days are over for Bobby Cox's squad as they own a four-game lead in the NL East heading into a home matchup with Milwaukee. The Braves grabbed four of six against the Phillies and Mets on their recent trip, while the Brewers concluded the first half with a three-game home sweep of the Pirates.

Jair Jurrjens (1-3, 5.40 ERA) has pitched well in his two starts since getting activated off the disabled list at the end of June. Jurrjens scattered two hits and three earned runs in six innings of a no-decision at Philadelphia his last time out. The Braves managed a 6-3 victory in extra-innings, the second straight win for Atlanta when Jurrjens takes the hill. In the right-hander's lone start against the Brewers last June, Jurrjens was on the wrong side of a 4-0 shutout, despite eight strikeouts and seven innings.

The Brewers send out veteran Dave Bush (4-6, 4.14 ERA), who is coming off a solid month of starts. The righty has put together five straight quality starts, even though each of his last four outings has come at Miller Park. Bush has won each of his last two starts as an underdog against the Angels and Cubs, including a victory as a $1.70 road 'dog at Anaheim.

The Braves swept the Brew Crew at Miller Park in mid-May, outscoring Milwaukee, 28-7 in the three-game sweep. The road team is 12-4 in this series dating back to 2008, as the Brewers are 6-3 the last nine games at Turner Field.

Rangers at Red Sox - 7:10 PM EST

Texas has busted out of the gate as the team to beat in the AL West, owning a 4 ½-game advantage over Los Angeles heading into the second half. The Red Sox are sitting in third place in the AL East, but possess the third-best mark in the American League.

Tim Wakefield (3-7, 5.22 ERA) turned in his worst start in over a month by allowing six earned runs in 5.2 innings in a 6-4 setback at Tampa Bay. The Sox have now alternated wins and losses in each of Wakefield's last seven starts, while Boston has beaten Baltimore and Los Angeles in his previous two home outings. Wakefield's career numbers against the Rangers aren't spectacular, giving up at least five earned runs in each of his last three meetings with Texas. The knuckleballer allowed six earned runs in six innings against the Rangers in mid-April, but the Sox bailed out Wakefield with a 7-6 victory.

The Rangers send out talented right-hander Tommy Hunter (5-0, 2.34 ERA), who is coming off a no-decision in his last start against Baltimore. The Rangers' bullpen gave up a late one-run lead in a 6-4 setback as $2.50 home 'chalk.' The overwhelming majority of Hunter's starts have come in Arlington, with his lone road outing coming at Florida in which the 24-year old lasted 2.1 innings against the Marlins. The Rangers picked up a road win, the only start all season in which Hunter has been listed as an underdog. Hunter beat the Sox last season in Arlington as a $1.60 'dog, scattering four hits and one earned run in six innings.

The Sox picked up a pair of one-run victories over the Rangers to grab the April home set, but Texas avoided a sweep with a 3-0 shutout in the series finale. Since the start of the 2009 season, the Rangers are 8-4 against the Red Sox, including a 3-2 mark at Fenway Park.

White Sox at Twins - 8:10 PM EST

The three-horse race in the AL Central has a new leader after Chicago has pulled off eight straight victories to take a ½ game lead over Detroit. Minnesota, who led the division for the duration of the first half, has dropped eight of ten.

Since losing two of three to the woeful Indians in early June, the Sox have won 25 of 31 games, including an 11-4 mark on the road. John Danks (8-7, 3.29 ERA) is fresh off his best start of the season, a complete-game, two-hitter against the Angels, ending a two-game skid. The Sox are 0-6 in Danks' last six starts versus Minnesota, including a pair of one-run setbacks this season. Four times the southpaw has delivered a quality start in those six defeats, but Chicago tallied three runs or less in each of those games.

Kevin Slowey (8-5, 4.64 ERA) has not been productive over the last month, giving up at least five earned runs in four of his last five starts. The only outing in which he pitched well was a home victory over the Tigers on June 30, allowing four hits and one earned run in six innings of a 5-1 triumph. The Twins lost as a $1.75 home favorite the last time Slowey faced the Sox in May, giving up five earned runs in just 4.2 innings of a 5-2 defeat.

Minnesota has taken three of five meetings this season, as the two teams split a two-game set at Target Field two months ago. The 'under' has turned into a profitable play between these division rivals, hitting in the last eight meetings in Minnesota.

Dodgers at Cardinals - 8:15 PM EST

The rematch of last season's NLDS takes place at Busch Stadium as the Cards and Dodgers each try to make up ground in their respective divisions. St. Louis sits one game behind Cincinnati in the NL Central, while Los Angeles and Colorado are tied for second place in the NL West behind San Diego.

Former Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter (9-3, 3.29 ERA) looks to get back on track following losses in each of his last two outings to the Brewers and Rockies. The numbers weren't too pretty in those defeats, allowing 18 hits and 12 runs (11 earned) in just nine innings of work. Carpenter had given up 12 runs in his seven previous starts combined, as St. Louis looks to improve on the 8-2 mark in his ten home outings. The last time Carpenter faced the Dodgers in June, the Cards lost 1-0. Carpenter wasn't too blame for the defeat, giving up six hits in seven scoreless innings as the Dodgers grabbed their lone run in the eighth inning off the St. Louis bullpen.

The Dodgers send out ace Clayton Kershaw (9-4, 2.96 ERA), who struck out a season-high 12 in a 3-2 victory over the Cubs last Thursday. The three runs scored by the Dodgers was only the second instance in his last eight starts that L.A. has plated three runs or less. Kershaw is facing a Cardinals squad that is batting just .247 at home against left-handed pitching, while St. Louis is 4-4 in its previous eight home games versus southpaw starters.

The Dodgers pulled off a three-game sweep of the Cardinals at Chavez Ravine in June as Los Angeles managed a pair of one-run wins. St. Louis' best mark in any game of a series is the opener, owning a 20-9 mark.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2010, 06:28 PM

Diamond Trends - Thursday

Mariners at Angels – The Mariners are 0-5 since April 25, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base as a dog for a net profit of $510 when playing against.

Brewers at Braves – The Brewers are 7-0 since April 25, 2009 on the road after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $880. The Brewers are 0-6 since April 17, 2009 when David Bush starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Braves are 9-0 since April 16, 2010 at home when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $910. The Braves are 0-6 since July 03, 2008 when Jair Jurrjens starts at home vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $900 when playing against.

Dodgers at Cardinals – The Dodgers are 6-0 since June 21, 2009 when Clayton Kershaw starts on the road after more strike outs than hits allowed and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $650. The Dodgers are 5-0 since April 21, 2010 on the road when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $500.

Phillies at Cubs – The Phillies are 5-0 since May 05, 2010 after a win in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $590. The Phillies are 0-5 since May 27, 2010 on the road when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $515 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-4 since April 29, 2010 at home after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $525 when playing against.

Mets at Giants – The Mets are 0-6 since June 24, 2010 when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $695 when playing against.

Rangers at Red Sox – The Rangers are 0-5 since June 25, 2010 and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $915 when playing against. The Rangers are 0-4 since July 02, 2010 after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $880 when playing against. The Red Sox are 6-0 since May 11, 2010 at home after a one run win for a net profit of $600

White Sox at Twins – The White Sox are 9-0 since June 10, 2010 after scoring 6+ runs win for a net profit of $940. The White Sox are 8-0 since June 09, 2010 when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $915. The Twins are 8-0 since April 12, 2010 at home vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $825.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2010, 06:29 PM

NL 1st Half Review

The first half of the baseball season is finally complete, but not without plenty of highlights and lowlights from inside the National League. The three current division leaders didn't make the postseason last year, while the surging Colorado Rockies are the only playoff club from a season ago that would qualify for play in October if the playoffs started today. The storylines have been shocking to say the least with the success of teams that weren't given a chance to go along with the squads that have underachieved to this point.

Brave New World

Bobby Cox wasn't thrilled with Atlanta's 8-14 start that dropped the Braves to the cellar of the NL East at the end of April. The Braves have tomahawk chopped the competition with a 42-21 run since the beginning of May to take hold of the division. Atlanta has taken care of its home field with a 20-4 mark at Turner Field over the last 24 games. Bettors are thrilled with the 14-1 ledger the Braves own as a home favorite of $1.40 or less, while going 10-2 as home 'chalk' of $1.50 or higher the last 12 games.

The Braves open the second half with a seven-game homestand against the Brewers and Padres, followed by a nine-game road trip at Florida, Washington, and Cincinnati. Atlanta owns a solid 9-4 mark the last 13 games as a road favorite, which will definitely come up in at least four of the first six games on that road swing.

Super Padres

The other team in Southern California has made the most noise with little flair inside the competitive NL West. San Diego's secret is simple, own the league's best pitching staff and let the offense provide enough runs for a victory. With Jake Peavy shipped off to Chicago last summer, there wasn't an ace on the staff. Somehow, the entire rotation banded together with a strong bullpen to own a league-best 3.21 ERA and 12 shutouts. Padres' backers have benefited by banking 16 units overall, with most of the damage coming on the highway. San Diego is 16-12 the last 28 games as a road underdog which doesn't seem overly impressive, but has cashed 10 units in this span.

The Padres didn't end the first half on a good note by dropping five of six, but two of the first three opponents following the break are last-place clubs. San Diego opens up a three-game set with Arizona at Petco Park, then Bud Black's team heads on the road to take on the Braves at Turner Field and the Pirates at PNC Park for six contests.

Simply Red

The league's largest division usually has the fewest teams that have a realistic shot on winning it with the Pirates and Astros struggling. The Cardinals have been up and down while the Brewers and Cubs search for consistency. The club leading the NL Central at the midway point is the surprising Cincinnati Reds. Dusty Baker's team is tops in the National League in runs scored and batting average, despite middle-of-the road numbers for the rotation.

Cincinnati's been through a roller-coaster ride at times this season, which included a five-game skid in April and 1-6 run in mid-June. Nearly half of the Reds' wins have come against their division opponents, as 25 of Cincinnati's 49 victories are versus the division. The Reds are the only profitable team in the NL Central (+7.6 units), while closing the first half on a 16-4-1 run to the 'under' on the road.

Despite getting swept at Philadelphia to wrap up the first half, the Reds play 10 of their first 13 games after the break against Washington, Houston, and Milwaukee. The only problem is the Reds start the second half against the red-hot Rockies.

Rock the Boat

The Colorado Rockies must feel motivated when the summer months hit, because this team never plays its best the first few months of the season. The Rockies could barely bust above the .500 mark despite a superb first half from ace Ubaldo Jimenez, starting the season 20-22. Since May 22, Jim Tracy's team is 29-17, and is not relying only on Jimenez as young hurlers Jason Hammel and Jhoulys Chacin have stepped up over the last five weeks.

The Rockies are 13-4 the last 17 games as a home favorite after Houston stole three of four at Coors Field in mid-June. It hasn't hurt Colorado's efforts by playing 23 of the final 32 games prior to the break at home, making up five games from first-place San Diego in the last week inside the division. The Rockies hit the highway out of the gate for 11 games starting Friday at Cincinnati. Colorado then heads to Florida for four games, while wrapping up the trip in Philadelphia.

North Side Going South

Two seasons ago, the Cubs owned the best record in the National League, but were promptly swept out of the playoffs by the Dodgers. Chicago faltered last season with an 83-78 mark, while falling 10 games below .500 at 39-49 heading into the break. Bettors aren't too thrilled either with the Cubs, who are the least profitable team in all of baseball by losing backers over 20 units.

Breaking down the Cubs' season from a betting perspective is extremely simple. Carlos Silva has turned into the ace of this staff with Chicago going 11-5 in his 16 starts. The Cubs are 28-44 with anybody else starting, including a disturbing 3-9 mark against the woeful Pirates. Wrigley Field hasn't been as friendly as many think, with the Cubs going 13-18 (-14.5 units) as a home favorite when Silva doesn't start.

Is there any shot at a rally? The Cubs can improve on their home mark with ten straight contests on the North Side following the break. Chicago welcomes in Philadelphia, Houston, and St. Louis, as the Cubs are a division-worst 15-25 against the NL Central.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2010, 06:30 PM

AL 1st Half Review

Major League Baseball has finally reached its halfway point of the season with the upcoming All-Star Game in Anaheim. We’ve learned plenty of things in the first half of the 2010 campaign in the Junior Circuit. Let’s take a look at the opening 3 months of play.

A Square’s Paradise…

We’re all familiar with chalk-eaters in our trials of gambling. Hell, I’m sure that we’ve been accused of being such a person at one time or another. Normally, these lovers of betting only favorites will get bitten in the ass eventually down the road. That, oddly enough, hasn’t happened just yet.

If you were to wager on nothing but the “chalk” in the first half of the season, you would have won 58 percent of the time (760-547). Definitely not a bad productivity level for the squares in 2010, yes? And if we are to tighten that up to focus on just the Junior Circuit, that gets kicked up to 60 percent.

Eastern Clout…

Most of those victories have come from arguably the toughest division in all of baseball, the AL East. The Yankees (50-28), Rays (40+27) and Red Sox (42-26) have been favored far more than any other teams in the league. Of course, that means you’re going to have to pony up a fair amount on each team. This trio will normally go around minus-150 (risk $150 to win $100) at most betting shops, if favored. Regardless of the cost, they continue to be a public and profitable play.

We’re going to see a lot of more chalky play out of the Yanks and Rays as soon as the All-Star Break. They’ll face one another in the Bronx, but after that bettors will have a chance to cash on both of them. Tampa Bay has six more games on its road trip with three games against the Orioles and the rest against the Indians. The Yankees have a quick two-game set against the Halos before four tests with the Royals.

Not for Profit West…

The AL West was the only division in baseball that had all of its teams turn a profit in 2009. Fast forward to this year and nobody in the group is in the black. The Angels were the only team turning a profit on Sunday by being up 35 units. But that disappeared after a 5-3 loss as $1.10 road favorites against Oakland to go into the All-Star Break.

There is plenty of reason to believe things will turn up for some of the clubs for the gambling public. For one thing, Texas is hands down the most complete team of the four. Now that they picked up Cliff Lee from the cellar-dwelling M’s, the Rangers have a much more formidable pitching rotation. Of course, that also means you’re going to see some obscene lines when he’s on the mound. Hopefully nothing like the minus-400 they closed at for Lee’s home debut on July 10.

The Angels have enough talent to push themselves back into the good graces of the public. After all, they get a four-game home stand with Seattle to warm up before heading out to New York once league play resumes.

**bigdog237** · 07-15-2010, 08:25 PM

good luck bum...meant in a good way,lol

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