Announcement

**Udog** · 07-11-2010, 09:08 PM

There are no games scheduled in any pro sports on Monday. All that's happening today is the Home Run Derby.

WNBA resumes Tuesday, CFL on Wednesday and MLB is back on Thursday.

**Udog** · 07-11-2010, 09:09 PM

2010 National League All-Stars

Below is the complete roster for the National League All-Star team.

STARTERS
POS PLAYER TEAM ALL-STAR APPEARANCES
C Yadier Molina St. Louis 2
1B Albert Pujols St. Louis 9
2B * Chase Utley Philadelphia 5
3B David Wright N.Y. Mets 5
SS Hanley Ramirez Florida 3
OF Ryan Braun Milwaukee 3
OF * Jason Heyward Atlanta 1
OF Andre Ethier L.A. Dodgers 1

PITCHERS
POS PLAYER TEAM ALL-STAR APPEARANCES
RHP Jonathan Broxton L.A. Dodgers 2
RHP Chris Carpenter St. Louis 3
RHP Matt Capps Washington 1
RHP Yovani Gallardo Milwaukee 1
RHP Roy Halladay Philadelphia 7
RHP Tim Hudson Atlanta 3
RHP Ubaldo Jimenez Colorado 1
RHP Josh Johnson Florida 2
RHP Tim Lincecum San Francisco 3
RHP Evan Meek Pittsburgh 1
LHP Arthur Rhodes Cincinnati 1
RHP Adam Wainwright St. Louis 1
RHP Brian Wilson San Francisco 2
LHP # Hong-Chih Kuo L.A. Dodgers 1

RESERVES
POS PLAYER TEAM ALL-STAR APPEARANCES
C Brian McCann Atlanta 5
1B Ryan Howard Philadelphia 3
1B Adrian Gonzalez San Diego 3
1B @ Joey Votto Cincinnati 1
2B & Martin Prado Atlanta 1
INF Omar Infante Atlanta 1
SS # Rafael Furcal LA Dodgers 2
SS * Troy Tulowitzki Colorado 1
SS * Jose Reyes N.Y. Mets 2
2B Brandon Phillips Cincinnati 1
3B Scott Rolen Cincinnati 6
OF Michael Bourn Houston 1
OF Marlon Byrd Chicago Cubs 1
OF Corey Hart Milwaukee 2
OF Matt Holliday St. Louis 4
OF Chris Young Arizona 1
* -- unable to play; # -- replacement; & -- will start for Utley; @ -- won NL's Final Vote

**Udog** · 07-11-2010, 09:09 PM

2010 American League All-Stars

Below is the complete roster for the American League All-Star team.

STARTERS
POS PLAYER TEAM ALL-STAR APPEARANCES
C Joe Mauer Minnesota 4
1B *Justin Morneau Minnesota 4
2B Robinson Cano N.Y. Yankees 2
3B Evan Longoria Tampa Bay 3
SS Derek Jeter N.Y. Yankees 11
OF Ichiro Suzuki Seattle 10
OF Josh Hamilton Texas 3
OF Carl Crawford Tampa Bay 4
DH Vladimir Guerrero Texas 9

PITCHERS
POS PLAYER TEAM ALL-STAR APPEARANCES
RHP *Clay Buchholz Boston 1
RHP Trevor Cahill Oakland 1
RHP Fausto Carmona Cleveland 1
RHP Neftali Feliz Texas 1
RHP Phil Hughes N.Y. Yankees 1
LHP Cliff Lee Texas 2
LHP Jon Lester Boston 1
LHP #Andy Pettitte NY Yankees 3
LHP David Price Tampa Bay 1
RHP Mariano Rivera N.Y. Yankees 11
LHP CC Sabathia N.Y. Yankees 4
RHP Joakim Soria Kansas City 2
LHP Matt Thornton Chicago White Sox 1
RHP Jose Valverde Detroit 2
RHP # Jered Weaver L.A. Angels 1
# -- replacement player

RESERVES
POS PLAYER TEAM ALL-STAR APPEARANCES
C * Victor Martinez Boston 4
C # John Buck Toronto 1
1B Miguel Cabrera Detroit 5
1B #Paul Konerko Chicago 4
2B * Dustin Pedroia Boston 3
2B # Ian Kinsler Texas 2
SS Elvis Andrus Texas 1
3B Alex Rodriguez N.Y. Yankees 13
3B Adrian Beltre Boston 1
INF Ty Wigginton Baltimore 1
OF Torii Hunter L.A. Angels 4
OF Vernon Wells Toronto 3
OF Jose Bautista Toronto 1
OF @Nick Swisher N.Y. Yankees 1

DH David Ortiz Boston 5
* -- unable to play; # -- replacement; @ -- won AL's All-Star Final Vote

**Udog** · 07-11-2010, 09:10 PM

Seeing stars: How sharps bet the MLB All-Star Game

Bettors aim to cover all the bases when handicapping a baseball game.

From what a slugger's batting average is against the opposing starter to how the shortstop's range might be affected by his **** meal, the goal is to anticipate and predict what is most likely to happen in the game.

It gets a lot harder to do that when you don't know which players are playing, or when.

That's the challenge facing both bettors and oddsmakers when handicapping Major League Baseball's All-Star Game. With managers trying to utilize as many players as possible on their 33-man roster, it seems almost impossible to accurately project the probable result.

Still, there are ways to get an edge when it comes to betting the Midsummer Classic. Just don't expect to find one every time.

"We will always take a look," says David Malinsky. "We won't always find something we can work with."

The unknowns of which pitchers will pitch and who they'll face obviously generate the biggest challenge for handicappers. But that also can create headaches for the oddsmakers.

"There are matchups that are often overlooked by the oddsmakers," says Steve Merril. "The key to the MLB All-Star Game is rating the offensive lineups, especially the starting lineups. Pitching is also a key and, by checking recent start dates, you can often get an idea of the probable rotation and which pitchers are likely to see action."

Malinsky says he generally finds an edge on the all-star game once every three or four years, whether it is a side or a total.

His natural inclination is to lean to the under, given the quality of pitchers in the game, but Malinsky notes the oddsmakers factor that into the line as well. The last three all-star games have been low-scoring affairs, totaling 21 runs, but the previous four contests were slugfests (52 runs).

"The total is the toughest thing to figure out," adds oddsmaker Michael Perry. "You have to pay some attention to the ballpark when assessing the total."

The obvious trend in recent all-star games has been the dominance of the American League. The Junior Circuit has not lost to the National League since 1996, posting an 11-0-1 record during that span.

"They've just simply been better," Malinsky says of the AL, pointing to high-spending teams like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox as reasons for the disparity. "We take that into consideration, but so do the oddsmakers. The first thing they do is make adjustments for that."

Making the MLB All-Star Game a more viable bet is that the result actually matters to most of its participants, unlike basketball, football and hockey.

Following a 7-7 debacle in Milwaukee six years ago, MLB commissioner Bud Selig decided to award home field in the World Series to the league that wins the all-star game. Malinsky says that incentive ensures added effort from managers as well as players.

"The managers who are in charge, for the reasons they are in charge (reaching the World Series the previous year), understand that home field could particularly matter to them later on," he says. "It's no secret that the better teams have more players in the all-star game, and the better teams are the ones who think 'We can be there come October.' That really does come into play."

Bettors don't seem to have any concerns about effort in the MLB All-Star Game either. It is the most bet-on all-star game of the four main professional sports, with the NBA showcase a distant second.

"Even before the incentive of home-field advantage, baseball's all-star game was played with (the most) effort," Perry says.

**Udog** · 07-11-2010, 09:14 PM

Using run differential to find value in MLB's second half

Baseball is a statistics-driven sport. Bettors are constantly searching for the right stat, or combination of, to break the hardball banks.

One stat that is thrown into every oddsmaker’s power rankings equation is run differential. Examining total runs scored by a team against total runs allowed provides the best assessment of a club’s value, despite where it’s stationed in the standings.

"The one stat that I now believe in above all others is run differential,” Washington Post columnist Michael Wilbon said in 2008. “I believe those stats show all around what you're capable of doing."

Below, we take a look at two teams that could excel from a wagering standpoint in the second half of the season based on run differential as well as two that could regress.

*Statistics compiled prior to Friday’s games.

Minnesota Twins (+40 run differential, -2.09 units)

The Twins have fallen back to third place in the AL Central standings but their run differential (RD) indicates they should be the best team in the division. The White Sox hold a RD of +10 while the first-place Tigers have only outscored opponents by seven runs this season.

The other 12 teams in baseball that have a RD of 40 or higher combine for +60.73 units on the year. The average moneyline profit between the dozen is +5.06.

Minnesota is unfortunate to be in the red at this point of the season and bettors should expect a profitable turnaround in the second half. The Twinkies earned 6.16 units post All-Star break in 2009.

Kansas City Royals (-32 RD, +6.11 units)

The Royals have been a surprise to bookies and bettors through the first half of the 2010 campaign. The Boys in Blue have played well under manager Ned Yost, going 27-23 (+11.47 units) since he took over for Trey Hillman.

But Kansas City’s run differential suggests the team has been playing well above its heads. Nine other MLB squads have a RD of -30 or higher and none of them are in the black. In fact, the composite moneyline total of the bottom nine RD teams is -122.69 units.

The Royals will be sellers throughout the trading period and have already been shopping Jose Guillen. Although this is one of the best hitting lineups in baseball from an average standpoint, Kansas City just doesn’t get the job done with runners in scoring position and that will be costly post-break.

St. Louis Cardinals (+52 RD, -10.4 units)

How in the world are the Red Birds double digits in the hole halfway through the season? Well, inflated moneyline losses here and there with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright or Jaime Garcia on the mound are the primary reasons.

The Cardinals are the only team in MLB with a run differential greater than 50 that is in the negative from a betting perspective. St. Louis is also the only squad with the highest RD in its division that isn’t in first place (Reds +49).

Tony La Russa’s clubs are known for being second-half teams. The Cards went 42-29 in the after the break last season and much of the same can be expected this year.

Houston Astros (-116 RD, -3.29 units)

The Astros started the season much like the Nets with everyone calculating projected win totals to see if they would go down in history with their sports’ all-time worst record. But Houston has rebounded a bit over the last two months and should be happy to be just three units down with that horrendous run differential.

Of Houston’s 51 losses, only 11 have come by a margin of one run so playing against the ‘Stros on the runline has been a profitable betting system. The team’s -116 RD is the third-worst in the bigs and the other two teams below that have lost a minimum of nine units.

The Astros brass announced about the third week of the season that everyone was on the trading block. Roy Oswalt will likely be donning another uniform soon while sluggers like Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman could also be on the move. Houston won’t be favored in many games during the second half and they won’t win many either.

**The Orange Chef** · 07-11-2010, 09:32 PM

can the AL win again ?
I hate betting the all star game.

**Udog** · 07-12-2010, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by The Orange Chef View Post

can the AL win again ?
I hate betting the all star game.

That's a good question, Chef. As a fan of a NL team, I sure hope not!

I hate to say it but, if I were going to bet the game, I'd tend to go along with the strong recent history that shows the AL owning this thing. I usually hang a loss when I decide to buck a trend that strong.

Good luck if you decide to bet it!

**Udog** · 07-12-2010, 07:00 PM

Verlander, Bailey, Weaver, Kuo late All-Star additions

Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander, Oakland Athletics reliever Andrew Bailey, Los Angeles Angels pitcher Jared Weaver and Los Angeles Dodgers relief pitcher Hong-Chih Kuo were added to the rosters for Tuesday's All-Star Game, MLB.com reported.

Due to a new rule, pitchers who start on the final Sunday before the break are ineligible to pitch in the Midsummer Classic. That ruled out CC Sabathia of the New York Yankees and Trevor Cahill of the Athletics.

Weaver also pitched Sunday and is ineligible for the contest, but he will be introduced before the home fans in Anaheim.

Kuo has been selected to take injured Atlanta Braves outfielder Jason Heyward's spot on the NL's All-Star Game roster.

NL manager Charlie Manuel originally picked Houston Astros reliever Billy Wagner to join the roster but he declined due to a sore ankle, the report said. Milwaukee's Corey Hart will take Heyward's starting spot in the outfield.

Kuo, who is 3-1 on the season with a 1.03 ERA, becomes the second Dodger to get the All-Star nod due to injury. L.A. shortstop Rafael Furcal is taking over for injured New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes.

**Udog** · 07-12-2010, 07:08 PM

Bombs Away: Betting the Home Run Derby

Dingers. Taters. Jacks. Round-trippers. Four-baggers. You can call them what you want, but you can’t call them boring.

Even in a year when pitching is dominating the sport, there’s a soft spot in every baseball fan’s heart for a deep fly ball that’s going, going, gone. It’s like Greg Maddux once told us so eloquently on behalf of Nike, “Chicks dig the long ball.”

Here’s our rundown of Monday’s Home Run Derby.

*All statistics compiled prior to Sunday’s games.

Corey Hart +510 (20 HR)

The lanky outfielder – not the Canadian-born pop singer who wore his sunglasses at night – has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing year for Milwaukee. The towering young slugger seems to have finally grown into his power swing. Hart leads the Brewers in RBIs (65) and slugging percentage (.565), and his 20 homers are just four shy of his career best.

Chris Young +1000 (15 HR)

Chris Young will be the only leadoff hitter in this year’s competition. In an unconventional move, manager Kirk Gibson recently moved Young to the top of Arizona’s lineup, despite his 15 homers and 75 strikeouts. He will try to become Arizona’s first Home Run Derby winner since Luis Gonzalez took home the hardware in 2001, amid his 57-big fly campaign.

David Ortiz +300 (17 HR)

This will be Big Papi’s fifth Home Run Derby, making him the elder statesman of this year’s competition. It’ll be Ortiz’s first appearance since 2006, a season in which he hit a career-high 54 homers. His best days as a player are behind him, but Ortiz’s experience and classic pull swing make him a serious contender.

Hanley Ramirez +1000 (13 HR)

We don’t know who Fredi Gonzalez will be rooting for in this year’s contest, but we’re reasonably sure it won’t be Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez has clearly established himself as an elite player for the offensive versatility he brings to his position, but frankly, we don’t think Ramirez has the raw power to win this contest. Fortunately for most Floridians, they’ll be too caught up in LeBron-a-mania to notice.

Matt Holliday +550 (15 HR)

In terms of home run hitting, nobody in the field is hotter than Holliday. He’s hit nine dingers over the last month, including four this week alone. Holliday participated in the 2007 Derby in San Francisco, where he hit 13 homers but fell one short of the final round.

Miguel Cabrera +280 (22 HR)

Is anyone in baseball having a better year at the plate than Cabrera? The Detroit first baseman is leading baseball in batting average (.346), slugging percentage (650) and RBIs (76), and is tied for second with 22 home runs.

Nick Swisher +510 (15 HR)

Robinson Cano was originally chosen to participate in this year’s contest, but was later removed by Yankees management. Thanks to Nick Swisher, New York will be represented after all. Swisher, who made the All-Star team by beating out Kevin Youkilis in the closest final vote in history, is batting .303 with 15 homers on the year. He was selected to participate on Saturday afternoon and celebrated Saturday night by taking Felix Hernandez deep.

Vernon Wells +750 (19 HR)

Wells has been colder than a Toronto winter at the plate lately. He’s batting just .186 over the last two weeks and his one home run over that span is the lowest total of any player in the field. His season totals of 19 long balls and 49 RBIs are impressive, but you’d hate to put your money on a player who enters the Home Run Derby in that deep a funk.

The Pick: We hate to give you chalk, but it seems like 2010 is Miguel Cabrera’s year. Right now, Cabrera is a legitimate Triple-Crown candidate, and the favorite to be named American League MVP. With Cabrera this locked in, we’ll say he beats out Matt Holliday for the 2010 Home Run Derby crown.

Announcement

Monday's Trends and Indexes 7/12 (Misc.)

Monday's Trends and Indexes 7/12 (Misc.)

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment