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**Kaptain** · 07-10-2010, 09:07 AM

gl today Star Dust

**StarDust Bum** · 07-10-2010, 09:21 AM

Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 7/9-7/11

SAN FRANCISCO at WASHINGTON

WASHINGTON is 38-82 (-25.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.1, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)

CINCINNATI at PHILADELPHIA

CINCINNATI is 23-12 (+10.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 5.1, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)

ATLANTA at NY METS

NY METS are 10-2 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was NY METS 4.7, OPPONENT 2.4 - (Rating = 1*)

ST LOUIS at HOUSTON

ST LOUIS is 29-14 UNDER (+13.1 Units) vs. a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.2, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)

PITTSBURGH at MILWAUKEE

MILWAUKEE is 18-29 (-19.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.1, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 2*)

SAN DIEGO at COLORADO

SAN DIEGO is 20-9 (+15.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.7, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 3*)

FLORIDA at ARIZONA

ARIZONA is 15-34 (-21.1 Units) against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 4.7, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 2*)

CHICAGO CUBS at LA DODGERS

CHICAGO CUBS are 16-34 (-18.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.3, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*)

BOSTON at TORONTO

BOSTON is 3-13 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 3.3, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 1*)

MINNESOTA at DETROIT

MINNESOTA is 7-22 (-15.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 3.3, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 1*)

CLEVELAND at TAMPA BAY

TAMPA BAY is 18-5 (+10.3 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 5.7, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 0*)

BALTIMORE at TEXAS

BALTIMORE is 11-37 (-20.6 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.3, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 2*)

KANSAS CITY at CHI WHITE SOX

KANSAS CITY is 23-12 (+13.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 4.8, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)

LA ANGELS at OAKLAND

LA ANGELS are 16-6 (+10.0 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.0, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)

NY YANKEES at SEATTLE

NY YANKEES are 27-11 UNDER (+14.3 Units) in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 4.3, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)

**StarDust Bum** · 07-10-2010, 09:22 AM

CFL Week 1 underdog winners square off

Three of the opening weekend CFL games resulted in underdogs winning outright. Two of them, Saskatchewan and British Columbia square off in an intriguing Week 2 contest Saturday night. Of course, one of the teams has to move to the role of favorite for this game, and the host Lions do so, laying 2-points with a total of 52.5 according to Sportsbook.com. Let’s take a closer look at the game, which happens to be the FREE FoxSheet of the Week.

Saskatchewan comes off a season opening win over defending champ Montreal, a 54-51 double-overtime decision which may wind up going down as the game of the year when the season’s all said and done in November. In that game, Roughriders’ QB Darian Durant threw for 478 yards, leading an offensive outburst that produced 657 yards in all. Not bad for a team that went into the game as a 3.5-point home dog.

British Columbia’s opening win was more about old fashioned football, defense and the ground game, as the Lions knocked off Edmonton, 25-10, on the road. Running back Jamal Robertson led the charge, carrying the ball 11 times for 168 yards with a touchdown. B.C. was also a 3-1/2 point dog in Week 1. Perhaps most important to B.C.’s opening week effort was the solid performance put in by new quarterback Casey Printers, who threw for 218 yards on 20 for 34 passing.

In looking at some of the key bullet points from this report, you’ll find several key bits of info, all seeming to side with the visiting Roughriders.

First, take a look at this system indicating to fade home favorites off an early season divisional win:

Play Against - Home favorites (BRITISH COLUMBIA) - off a win over a division rival, in the first half of the season. (24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*)

The ******* Game Estimator and Power Line both indicate that Saskatchewan should be about a 4-point road favorite here. The simulation calls for a 29-25 win on average. It is a rare but good sign when the two models agree exactly on the expected margin of win.

From a trend perspective, Saskatchewan has been good of the road versus division foes and in early season games:

SASKATCHEWAN is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 22.6, OPPONENT 26.9 - (Rating = 0*)

SASKATCHEWAN is 39-18 ATS (+19.2 Units) in July games since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 27.1, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 1*)

It sure appears from all intents and purposes that oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com may have this one wrong on the side. As far as the total is concerned, note that Saskatchewan is on a 9-1 under run in road divisional games, and the last five games between these teams in B.C. have gone UNDER the total.

Kickoff is set for 10:00 PM ET on Saturday night on TSN.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-10-2010, 09:23 AM

Saturday's FOX Notes

As the pro baseball season heads into the All-Star break, we’re starting to see the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders. Saturday’s slate on FOX features two big battes between teams that have a great shot to be playing against one another this October. Let’s take a closer look at all the televised tilts, which are scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT.

Atlanta at N.Y. Mets

The Braves and Mets continue their rivalry from Citi Field this afternoon. New York has taken four of the first five battles against Atlanta this season, three coming at home. Even though the Mets have played better, all of the five affairs were decided by three runs or less and three of them by exactly one run. The ‘under’ cashed in all five as well. The Braves captured a 4-2 decision on Friday as they knocked back-to-back homeruns in the seventh inning. The ‘under’ cashed again and is now 6-0 in the six meetings this season between the pair.

Tim Hudson (8-4, 2.44 ERA) will take the hill for Atlanta and while he’s been a great find for the club this year, the club has dropped four of his last six starts, including three straight on the road over this span. Hudson hasn’t faced the Mets this season but he’s gone 10-5 with a 3.77 ERA in 16 starts over his career. Total players might want to make a note that the Braves have watched the ‘under’ go 5-0 in Hudson’s last five appearances.

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The Mets will counter with Mike Pelfrey (10-3, 3.39 ERA), who lost his first decision at home on Monday to Cincinnati (6-8). Pelfrey was battered for nine hits and seven earned runs in the loss and that came after giving up 12 hits and four earned runs in his prior start to the Marlins. The right-hander has faced the Braves twice this season and he’s earned two wins (3-2, 1-0).

Hudson has been installed as a short road favorite (-115) and the total is listed at 7 ½ runs, shaded to the ‘under’ (-115).

Minnesota at Detroit

The Twins’ hold on the AL Central has quickly slipped away and all of the reasons point to a dismal road record (19-24). After taking two of three at Philadelphia, the Twins have gone 2-8 in their last 10 and they now trail the Tigers by three games for the division lead. Minnesota could have trouble closing the first-half of the season strong considering they play at Detroit, who owns an AL-best 31-12 home record. The Tigers have won six of seven at Comerica Park albeit against the Mariners and Orioles. Minnesota should have confidence for this series, considering it has taken six of the first 10 against Detroit this season, but they did lose two of the three at Comerica Park in late April and they suffered a 7-3 setback last night.

The Twins’ Nick Blackburn (7-6, 6.00 ERA) helped the team go 8-1 in his first nine starts but they’re 1-6 in his last seven appearances. During this skid, he’s played four games on the road and he’s been hammered for 32 hits and 23 earned runs over a little less than 12 innings. Ironically, Blackburn’s lone win in his last seven came against Detroit (11-4), plus he earned a 4-3 decision against the Tigers on May 4, but both of those victories were at Target Field.

Jeremy Bonderman (4-6, 4.81 ERA) looks to keep Detroit rolling along but that could be trouble since the right-hander is 4-6 with a 5.40 ERA in his career against Minnesota. In his one appearance against the Twins this season, he notched a 7-5 win on June 28, surrendering nine hits and four earned runs. Despite his up and down numbers, Bonderman is listed as a healthy favorite (-150). The total opened at 9 ½ runs.

Saturday’s Best and Worst Clubs

Atlanta has gone 10-3

The L.A. Angels have gone 10-3

San Diego is 9-4

Boston has gone 9-4

Tampa Bay has gone 9-4

Houston and Kansas City have both gone 2-11

Baltimore has gone 4-10

**Udog** · 07-10-2010, 09:27 AM

Great reading, as usual, Bum! Thanks! Good luck today!

**StarDust Bum** · 07-10-2010, 10:56 AM

HEY Good Luck to you Boys......KAPT and UDOG......go kick some butt today.......and slap the man.......

**StarDust Bum** · 07-10-2010, 11:00 AM

Arena Football Week 15 Betting Outlook

With four weeks left in the Arena Football League regular season, the playoff picture is sorting itself out, and several teams are streaking to the finish, both positively and negatively. The pointspreads have ballooned as bettors have taken advantage by riding hot teams and fading others that have proven far from competitive. Let’s take a look at the games on the Week 15 slate to see if we can’t find some holes in oddsmakers’ numbers. Lines are courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Friday, 7/9/2010
(301) ALABAMA at (302) ORLANDO 8:00 PM
Line: Orlando by 6, Total: 103
Orlando opened as a 3-point favorite for this mid-level Southern Division showdown but has quickly been bet up to minus-6 as bettors are getting a grip on the ramifications of the season-ending injury to Alabama QB Kevin Eakin, who broke his foot last week.

The Vipers are 6-6 on the season, one game ahead of Orlando, but have gone just 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in their L8 games. Scorign has been off considerably for Alabama since a hot start, as they have not topped the 56-point mark since averaging 62.3 PPG in their first four. Orlando isn’t playing its best ball of the season either, just 2-4 in its L6 games, but at least the Predators have the schedule to blame. They have endured a brutal slate during that time frame, and the fun doesn’t end yet, as they still have trips to Milwaukee and Tampa Bay on the docket.

This will be a rematch from earlier this season when the Predators won in Alabama, 48-31, as 9-1/2 point underdogs. This line is obviously a large swing, but perhaps bettors have embraced this powerful system:

Play Against - Any team (ALABAMA) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 42 points, off a road loss versus a division rival. (28-7 since 1996.) (80%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*)

(303) TAMPA BAY at (304) DALLAS 8:00 PM
Line: Tampa Bay is 13.5, Total: 107.5
Tampa Bay is the hottest team in the American Conference, having won seven straight games since opening 2-3. However, there’s little room to breathe yet as Jacksonville remains just a game back in the quest for the Southern Division title and a bye in the first round of the postseason. The Storm opened as 12-point favorites for this clash in Dallas, losers of nine straight games, but still the line has only moved up a single point. Bettors may be of the belief that Dallas isn’t nearly as bad as some of the league’s other struggling teams.

In fact, if you look at Dallas’ log of games during the 9-game skid, you’ll see that the Vigilantes have lost by a touchdown or less in five of them. They have in fact proven very competitive against a difficult schedule. If you compare these two teams’ schedule strengths to date, you’ll see a significant difference: Tampa Bay 46.4, Dallas 50.3, meaning Dallas has played teams with a 4-point higher power rating on average.

With as hot as Tampa is, bettors must consider that only one of the opponents making up the 7-game winning streak has a winning record currently. Still, if you believe in history, the hot streak could continue:

TAMPA BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 64.7, OPPONENT 50.6 - (Rating = 2*)

(313) JACKSONVILLE at (314) UTAH 9:05 PM
Line: Jacksonville by 20.5, Total: 110.5
Utah has been head & shoulders the league’s worst team in 2010, and the Blaze come into this home contest vs. Jacksonville on an 8-game losing streak. As a sign of just how badly they have played, their scoring margin in the last seven games of the streak has been an ugly -31 points per game and they haven’t covered a single pointspread in that time. Could this finally be the week Utah emerges to at least beat the oddsmakers’ number? Currently they are a 20.5-point dog to an 8-4 Sharks team.

One thing you’ll want to consider as you analyze Utah’s chances to stay within three touchdowns is that Jacksonville has not been anything higher than a 6.5-point favorite on any occasion this season. The Sharks also aren’t one of the league’s elite scoring teams, ranking 8th at 55.4 PPG.

The ******* Power Line calls for a 17-point win by Jacksonville, which of course would leave Utah ATS backers with the winning ticket.

Saturday, 7/10/2010

(305) SPOKANE at (306) CLEVELAND 7:00 PM
Line: Spokane by 3
Spokane has won eight straight games and owns the league’s best record at 10-2. However, bettors aren’t completely sold on the Shock’s chances of winning at Cleveland on Saturday, as they have been bet down from 4-point opening line favorites to 3-points at last check. Why might this be? I, for one, can think of a few reasons. If you agree, perhaps an underdog play here is the way to go…

First off, Spokane has struggled offensively the last four weeks, scoring just 53.8 PPG after averaging 68.9 PPG prior to that. In the last two games, the Shock have gained just 225.5 yards per, and were fortunate to escape both games with wins.

Cleveland is the best 6-7 team in the league if there is such a thing. The Gladiators are on a run of 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS, and actually have a quarterback in John Dutton who was voted the league’s best at his position in a poll I saw online.

Finally, Cleveland handed Spokane one of its two season losses back on May 1st on the road. The Gladiators won that game 72-68 as 6.5-point dogs, gaining what was a season-high 408 yards of offense before last week’s 77-point, 421-yard outburst in Orlando.

(307) BOSSIER-SHREVEPORT at (308) TULSA 8:00 PM
Line: Tulsa by 17
This game is the ******* Free FoxSheet of the Week, get all of the handicapping details you need for it on that offering.

(309) ARIZONA at (310) CHICAGO 8:00 PM
Line: Chicago by 2
Two of the top contenders in the National Conference square off when Chicago hosts Arizona. The Rush lead the Midwest Division at 9-4 but come off a loss at Tampa Bay. The Rattlers also come off a loss, 37-36 at Spokane, a setback which ended a 6-game winning streak for the club.

Breaking down this game, you’ll see that both teams have been nearly equally effective on the road as at home, thus the reason why it seems that oddsmakers have given Chicago very little home field advantage. The Rush are 5-2 at home, 4-2 on the road, while Arizona boasts a 4-2 mark in both.

Chicago opened as a 4-point favorite in this game only to be bet down to the current position of 2-points. Be sure to follow the line throughout the day on Saturday since bettors seem to be providing a strong opinion on who will win this game just based upon the move. They may also be getting swayed by trends like this one:

ARIZONA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games vs. poor scoring defenses - giving up 52 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 61.4, OPPONENT 52.2 - (Rating = 1*)

You have to wonder then if the previous meeting of these teams in 2010, a 70-56 win by Chicago in Arizona in April, means anything to the current contest. After all, the Rush were a bigger road favorite (-5.5) in that game than they are as hosts here.

(311) IOWA at (312) OKLAHOMA CITY 8:05 PM
Line: Oklahoma City by 4
If any team seems capable of making a postseason push down the stretch, it might be the Oklahoma City Yard Dawgz. As winners of their last two games, OKC doesn’t face a team with better than a 7-5 record the rest of the way. They are on a 6-2 ATS run overall, and have proven more than competitive in that stretch against the league’s hottest teams, Spokane, Tampa Bay, and Arizona. The Dawgz actually covered the pointspread in all three of those contests.

Here the Yard Dawgz are back in Oklahoma City, where they own a 4-2 SU & ATS mark in 2010. They will be welcoming a Barnstormers’ club that has gotten back to .500 by winning three of four games. However, Iowa owns only one win over a team with a winning record all season long.

This also is a rematch of an earlier contest, in which Iowa turned back OKC 68-60, despite being outgained by a 391-263 count. Iowa was a 6-point home favorite in that game. The ******* Power Rating shows this line is exactly where it needs to be, OKC -4.

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