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**StarDust Bum** · 07-09-2010, 06:54 PM

Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 7/9-7/11

This weekend in Major League Baseball offers up the last set of games before the all-star break, and these series’ are often looked at as key indicators of what we might expect from teams as they come out the break. Over the next few days, teams can either build confidence or momentum that they can savior in the three days off, or be left to think about how they’ll pick up the pieces once the action resumes next Thursday. Some clubs, like the Yankees, Rays, White Sox, and Rockies have already started building for a second half run. Others like the Angels, Red Sox, and Cardinals need to stop the bleeding this weekend. Let’s take a look at the action on tap for the next three days and reveal this weekend’s list of Top ******* Power Trends to consider as you build your wagering lineup.

In the American League, two of the three division leaders will be battling the bottom feeders in their opposite divisions. The Rangers, who lost the first of a four-game set at home versus the lowly Orioles, will look to sweep the rest of the weekend, figuring to be heavily favored in each game. Baltimore is an atrocious 10-34 on the road this season, while the Rangers have gone 31-16 at home. The Yankees are in Seattle for the weekend, riding a league-best six-game winning streak. They took the first game vs. the Mariners on Thursday, but are just 2-3 in their L5 against Seattle, having mustered only 12 runs. Elsewhere, in another hot vs. not matchup, the Rays, also winners of their last six games and sitting atop the wildcard standings, take on the last place Indians in Tampa.

The Red Sox will try to break a second-half trend of road woes that began last season when they visit Toronto. Boston comes off a sweep at the hands of the Rays and has now lost four straight games, losing a game on each occasion in the standings to the front-running Yankees. The Sox are now 5-games out, but they have fared quite well vs. the Jays in 2010, going 5-1, including a sweep in Toronto back in April. Finally, in Detroit, the streaking Tigers, 7-3 in their last 10 games, welcome the Twins to town. Detroit is scoring 5.9 runs per game during the surge and has pounded out double-digit hits in eight of the 10 games. Minnesota meanwhile, is reeling, just 5-11 in its L16 games. However, the Twins boast an impressive 19-10 mark in divisional games this season, including 6-3 vs. the Tigers.

The National League slate for the weekend is highlighted by two key series’ pitting the top two teams from the East and West divisions against one another. In the East, the Mets, currently trailing by 3-games to Atlanta, welcome the Braves to town, looking to repeat a late-April sweep at Citi Field in which the visitors mustered a total of three runs. Atlanta, the league’s best home team, has not played nearly as well on the road, going just 20-25, but does come off a key series victory at Philadelphia. Out West, the Padres will visit the Rockies, with Colorado also looking to slice into a 3-game deficit in the standings. The hosts have won eight of their L10 games, with their bats having awoken. The Rockies have topped the 10-hit mark in seven straight games but will be tested by the league’s top pitching staff. The Padres allow a league-best 3.3 runs per game with opponents batting just .235 on the season.

Get in on all of this weekend’s action before the break, and don’t forget to consult our list of Top ******* Power Trends before you hit the confirm button on your wagers.

SAN FRANCISCO at WASHINGTON

WASHINGTON is 38-82 (-25.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.1, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)

CINCINNATI at PHILADELPHIA

CINCINNATI is 23-12 (+10.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 5.1, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)

ATLANTA at NY METS

NY METS are 10-2 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was NY METS 4.7, OPPONENT 2.4 - (Rating = 1*)

ST LOUIS at HOUSTON

ST LOUIS is 29-14 UNDER (+13.1 Units) vs. a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.2, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)

PITTSBURGH at MILWAUKEE

MILWAUKEE is 18-29 (-19.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.1, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 2*)

SAN DIEGO at COLORADO

SAN DIEGO is 20-9 (+15.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.7, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 3*)

FLORIDA at ARIZONA

ARIZONA is 15-34 (-21.1 Units) against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 4.7, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 2*)

CHICAGO CUBS at LA DODGERS

CHICAGO CUBS are 16-34 (-18.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.3, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*)

BOSTON at TORONTO

BOSTON is 3-13 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 3.3, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 1*)

MINNESOTA at DETROIT

MINNESOTA is 7-22 (-15.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 3.3, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 1*)

CLEVELAND at TAMPA BAY

TAMPA BAY is 18-5 (+10.3 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 5.7, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 0*)

BALTIMORE at TEXAS

BALTIMORE is 11-37 (-20.6 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.3, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 2*)

KANSAS CITY at CHI WHITE SOX

KANSAS CITY is 23-12 (+13.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 4.8, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)

LA ANGELS at OAKLAND

LA ANGELS are 16-6 (+10.0 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.0, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)

NY YANKEES at SEATTLE

NY YANKEES are 27-11 UNDER (+14.3 Units) in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 4.3, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)

**StarDust Bum** · 07-09-2010, 06:57 PM

Diamond Trends - Friday

Cardinals at Astros – The Cardinals are 13-0 since July 17, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1300. The Cardinals are 9-0 since July 23, 2009 after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $915. The Cardinals are 0-6 since April 24, 2010 when Adam Wainwright starts on the road after a quality start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $735 when playing against.

Angels at Athletics – The Angels are 8-0 since May 27, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $800. The Angels are 6-0 since May 16, 2010 when Joel Pineiro starts as a favorite for a net profit of $600.

Red Sox at Blue Jays – The Blue Jays are 5-0 since September 28, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $715. The Blue Jays are 5-0 since June 05, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts at home after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $540.

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Pirates at Brewers – The Brewers are 0-8 since May 12, 2010 when they are off two losses in which they never led for a net profit of $865 when playing against.

Marlins at Diamondbacks – The Marlins are 7-0 since April 28, 2009 when Ricky Nolasco starts within 20 cents of pickem after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $735. The Diamondbacks are 7-0 since April 22, 2009 when Dan Haren starts as a favorite after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $700.

Cubs at Dodgers – The Cubs are 8-0 since September 20, 2009 as a road dog when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $1015. The Cubs are 6-0 since April 08, 2010 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $765.

Yankees at Mariners – The Yankees are 6-0 since May 20, 2009 when Philip Hughes starts after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $600.

Braves at Mets – The Braves are 7-0 since April 20, 2010 when Tommy Hanson starts after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $705. The Braves are 6-0 since August 20, 2009 as a dog when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $740. The Mets are 7-0 since April 23, 2010 at home vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $790.

Giants at Nationals – The Giants are 0-6 since September 22, 2009 when Matt Cain starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $680 when playing against. The Nationals are 7-0 since September 28, 2009 at home after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $815.

Reds at Phillies – The Reds are 0-9 since May 17, 2009 on the road after a one run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $932 when playing against.

Indians at Rays – The Indians are 0-9 since September 15, 2009 as a 170+ dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Indians are 0-6 since June 04, 2009 when Fausto Carmona starts as a road dog after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Padres at Rockies – The Padres are 6-0 since June 10, 2009 when Kevin Correia starts as a dog when he is off a start in which he needed fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter for a net profit of $800. The Rockies are 6-0 since July 03, 2009 when Jorge De La Rosa starts as a favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.

Twins at Tigers – The Twins are 8-0 since June 23, 2009 after a loss in which they left fewer than 10 men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $830. The Twins are 0-5 since July 09, 2009 when Francisco Liriano starts vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $530 when playing against. The Tigers are 7-0 since September 14, 2009 when Justin Verlander starts at home after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $720.

Royals at White Sox – The White Sox are 9-0 since June 11, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $900. The White Sox are 6-0 since June 27, 2009 when Mark Buehrle starts at home after a quality start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $620.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-09-2010, 07:10 PM

Series Preview, Braves-Mets

With the All-Star break looming after this weekend, the Mets and Braves are set to tangle in Queens for a crucial three-game set that could set the tone for the rest of the National League East race.

With Atlanta (50-35, +1071) taking two of three from the Phillies in the City of Brotherly Love this week, it is now 14-1-3 in its last 18 series. Also, the Braves have taken a commanding six-game lead over third-place Philadelphia.

New York (47-38, +856) opens this series three games behind Bobby Cox’s squad. The Mets just lost two of three at home to Cincinnati, including Wednesday’s 3-1 loss as minus-130 favorites. Nevertheless, they still maintain a 29-14 home record at Citi Field.

Atlanta is only 20-25 on the road, but it has played better away from Turner Field lately. In fact, the Braves are 15-11 in their last 26 road games.

The ‘under’ is on a 14-4 run in the Mets’ last 18 home games. For the year, the ‘under’ is 43-38 overall for New York, 25-17 in its home outings. Meanwhile, Atlanta has watched the ‘under’ go 42-39 overall. Totals have been a wash for the Braves (22-22) in their road assignments.

Now let’s take a look at the pitching matchups for all three games of this series…

Friday, 7:10 p.m. Eastern – Tommy Hanson vs. R.A. Dickey

--Atlanta RHP Tommy Hanson (8-5, 4.19) had a pair of horrendous starts before bouncing back in his last outing. The right-hander worked 6 2/3 scoreless innings in a 4-1 home win over Florida. Hanson fanned eight batters.

--Hanson is 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA in eight road assignments this year. He is 6-4 with a 3.59 ERA in his 12 starts at night.

--Hanson faced the Mets earlier this season at Citi Field, working five innings and giving up just one unearned run while striking out eight batters. He took the loss as the Braves fell by a 1-0 count. For his career, Hanson is 1-1 with a 0.00 ERA in 12 innings pitched against the Mets. He’s walked five and struck out 16.

--Hanson owns a 19-9 record and 3.45 ERA in 38 lifetime starts.

--R.A. Dickey (6-1, 2.62) is 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA in three home outings this season. The knuckleballer is 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA in seven starts at night this season.

--The Mets are 6-3 in Dickey’s nine starts.

--Atlanta slugger Troy Glaus is 0-for-7 against Dickey, while Melky Cabrera is 0-for-4 against him. Erick Hinske is 2-for-10 off Dickey with one double.

Saturday, 4:10 Eastern on FOX – Tim Hudson vs. Mike Pelphrey

--Atlanta RHP Tim Hudson (8-4, 2.44) is 10-5 with a 3.77 lifetime ERA against the Mets. The veteran righty from out of Auburn is 3-2 with a 2.88 ERA in 10 road starts this season.

--The Braves are only 9-8 in Hudson’s 17 starts this year. He is 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA in five starts for day games.

--New York RHP Mike Pelphrey (10-3, 3.39) has already beaten the Braves twice this year in a pair of starts, compiling a 1.42 ERA. However, he’s just 4-5 with a 5.21 ERA in 11 career starts against Atlanta.

--Pelphrey is coming off a rough outing in an 8-6 loss to the Reds. The right-hander was reached for seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings pitched.

--The Mets are a lucrative 14-4 in Pelphrey’s 18 outings this year.

--Pelphrey is 6-1 with a 2.83 in 10 home starts at Citi Field this season. He has been less effective in day games, going 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA.

--Jason Bay is 5-for-13 (.385) off Hudson with a double and one homer, while David Wright is 10-for-44 (.227) with just one home run. Rod Barajas is 5-for-10 off the righty for a .500 average with three doubles and one dinger.

--Atlanta slugger Chipper Jones is 6-for-21 (.286) with a double and two homers against Pelphrey. Hinske is 3-for-3 off Pelphrey with a double and a homer. Brian McCann has really feasted on Pelphrey, going 13-for-31 (.419) with six doubles and one home run. Ditto for Martin Prado, who belted a pair of homers in Wednesday’s win at Philadelphia. Prado is 7-for-15 (.467) against Pelphrey with four doubles and one homer.

Sunday, 1:10 p.m. ET. – Derek Lowe vs. Johan Santana

--Atlanta RHP Derek Lowe (9-7, 4.40) is 3-4 with a 7.01 career ERA against the Mets.

--Lowe got no run support in his last outing, a 3-1 loss at Philadelphia against Roy Halladay. He’s 0-2 in his last three starts despite posting an outstanding 2.75 ERA.

--Lowe is 3-4 with a 4.75 ERA in nine road assignments this year. However, the veteran righty is 4-0 with a 2.53 ERA in five starts for day games this season.

--New York LHP Johan Santana (6-5, 3.15) has always had tough luck against the Braves, posting a 1-5 record despite a 2.25 ERA in nine career starts.

--Santana is 5-3 with a 3.13 ERA in nine home starts, but he is 1-4 with a 4.03 ERA in eight starts for day games.

--Matt Diaz recently came off the DL for the Braves and hit his first home in Wednesday’s win at Philadelphia. Diaz will certainly be in the lineup vs. Santana because he’s 12-for-23 (.522) with a double and a homer off the southpaw.

--Glaus is 9-for-26 (.346) off Santana with three doubles and two homers.

--Wright is 7-for-19 (.368) off Lowe with a pair of doubles, while Barajas is 5-for-9 (.556) with a double. On the flip side, Bay is hitless in 15 career at-bats vs. Lowe.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Who said Billy Wagner didn’t have anything left? The veteran southpaw closer is 5-0 with 19 saves and a 1.27 ERA for the Braves this season. Wagner has fanned 55 batters in 35 1/3 innings pitched. He worked a perfect ninth and threw just 12 pitches in Wednesday’s close-out game at Philadelphia. Therefore, with Thursday’s off day, he’ll certainly be available if a save opportunity arises Friday night.

--Atlanta is 17-10 in day games this year, while the Mets are 12-13 in afternoon affairs.

--Atlanta is 14-13 against lefties this season.

**bryce** · 07-09-2010, 07:10 PM

Good luck SDB

**jt4545** · 07-09-2010, 07:17 PM

Good luck and thanks

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