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**StarDust Bum** · 07-07-2010, 11:51 PM

Thursday's Afternoon Tips

It’s a busy Thursday in Major League Baseball with 12 games on the schedule, including four afternoon battles. We’ll get to see a pair of hurlers in a series finale in Denver that could start in next Tuesday’s All-Star Game. Let’s take a look at the businessman specials on the diamond.

Pirates (30-53, -696) at Astros (33-51, -529) – 2:05 p.m. EDT

Not much has gone right in Pittsburgh when it comes to baseball. Yet they do have some reason to be happy at the moment as the Pirates have won four of their last six contests. Houston hasn’t had much luck either, having dropped six of its past 10 tests.

The Pirates will task Ross Ohlendorf (1-6, 4.39) to close out this series on a high note. You can look at the right-hander’s record and think he’s garbage, but the numbers are misleading. In the nine losses the Bucs have had with Ohlendorf on the hill, he allowed three or fewer earned runs in five of those games. Adding insult to injury is a total lack of run support for him as Pittsburgh has crossed the plate three times or fewer in seven of those defeats.

Houston counters with Roy Oswalt (5-10, 3.32) on Thursday afternoon. Oswalt can’t catch a break is seems right now as he’s lost his last three starts, which were all setbacks for the Astros. He pitched well enough to win a pair of those games but his offense mustered a total of two runs in his last three appearances.

The ‘under’ was the smart wager to take on with the Pirates when on the road, evidenced by a 6-3-1 mark. Houston has watched the ‘over’ post a 4-2-1 record in its past seven games at Minute Maid Park. However, the ‘Stros have seen the ‘under’ go 8-4-1 when listed as home faves this season.

Angels (46-40, +339) at White Sox (44-38, +448) – 2:05 p.m. EDT

There are plenty of series for any team during the season that can potentially make or break their playoff hopes. This is indeed one of those battles with the White Sox sitting only a game behind Detroit for first place in the AL Central and the Halos 3 ½-games in back of Texas in the American League West.

Ervin Santana (8-6, 3.95) gets the starting nod from the Angels for the final match of this four-game set. Santana hasn’t pitched on the road since early June, but he’s made the most of it by winning three of his last four starts outside of the O.C.

Chicago will give the ball over to John Danks (7-7, 3.58) for this contest. The White Sox have failed to capture victory in his last two starts, which makes sense as he’s been a bit streaky this season. The ChiSox went 4-1 to start the year with Danks on the hill. Since then, they’ve seen him go into a 1-5 slump to along with his recent struggles. It also doesn’t help that Danks is 1-3 with a 3.16 earned run average in seven career starts against Los Angeles.

What the White Sox do have for bettors to back up their wagers is that they’ve won nine of their last 10 games at U.S. Cellular Field. The ‘under’ cashed in six of those fixtures. Los Angeles has dropped five of its past seven games this year. The Halos have watched the ‘over’ has hit in six of their past eight road contests.

Giants (43-40, -195) at Brewers (37-47, -1,087) – 2:10 p.m. EDT

Could the Giants actually be swinging big bats again? It looks like that is a possibility after scoring 26 runs in their last four games. Bettors have taken note that San Francisco has won three of those four tests.

San Fran will look to Barry Zito (7-4, 3.75) to keep the good feelings going. Zito didn’t get the win against the Rockies, but he did enough to help the Giants to win 11-8 last Saturday in Denver. It was their first victory with the southpaw on the mound since a 5-4 triumph at home against Oakland on June 12. Zito has been a bit more of a risk on the road this season (2-3, 4.86) for gamblers over his outings at AT&T Park (5-1, 2.83).

Manny Parra (3-5, 4.45) is coming off of a 12-5 win for the Brewers in St. Louis on July 3. At Miller Park, however, Parra has been forgettable with a 1-3 record and an ERA of 4.36.

Milwaukee has won its last three games as a home underdog. San Francisco has lost six of its last nine as a road favorite against left-handed pitching.

Cardinals (45-38, -834) at Rockies (45-38, +64) – 3:10 p.m. EDT

As if a battle between two possible playoff teams isn’t enough, we’re getting a pair of the better pitchers facing off in the Senior Circuit. The only problem is that they are both coming off of shaky performances.

St. Louis’s Chris Carpenter (9-2, 3.16) has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the game with his team winning 13 of his 18 starts. But you’re only as good as your last start for some, which isn’t good for Carpenter. He lasted just three innings after allowing seven earned runs on nine hits as the Brew Crew rolled to a 12-5 road win last Saturday.

Ubaldo Jimenez (14-1, 2.27) has been on another planet when taking the mound for the Rockies this year. Colorado has won all but two of his 17 starts in 2010. But Jimenez has been vulnerable as of late by giving up 17 earned runs in his last three starts. To give you an idea how big a drop-off that is for the Rockies’ ace, he gave up 13 earned runs in his first 14 starts of the year. Gamblers can take heart in the fact that he is 5-0 with a 3.94 ERA at Coors Field this season.

Colorado has dropped four of its last six games this year as a home “chalk” against teams from the National League Central this year. The ‘under’ is 4-2 in those games.

Carpenter has only been a road ‘dog 10 times since joining the Cardinals in 2004. St. Louis has gone 7-3 in this situation.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-08-2010, 05:47 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
07/08/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
07/07/10 17-12-1 58.62% +2265 Detail
07/06/10 16-12-1 57.14% +1835 Detail
07/05/10 12-10-0 54.55% +690 Detail
07/04/10 13-16-0 44.83% -1735 Detail
07/03/10 12-17-0 41.38% -2600 Detail
07/02/10 17-11-1 60.71% +3290 Detail
07/01/10 12-9-0 57.14% +220 Detail
Totals 102-88-3 53.68% +4915

Evening Games:

Cincinnati - 7:05 PM ET Cincinnati -102 500
Philadelphia - Under 9 500 *****

San Diego - 7:05 PM ET San Diego -145 500
Washington - Over 7.5 500 *****

Minnesota - 7:07 PM ET Minnesota +116 500 *****
Toronto - Under 9 500

Cleveland - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -210 500
Tampa Bay - Over 9 500

Baltimore - 8:05 PM ET Baltimore +241 500 *****
Texas - Over 9.5 500

Florida - 9:40 PM ET Florida -115 500 *****
Arizona - Over 9.5 500 *****

NY Yankees - 10:10 PM ET NY Yankees -154 500
Seattle - Under 7.5 500 *****

Chi. Cubs - 10:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +181 500 *****
LA Dodgers - Under 7 500

-----------------------------------------------------------

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
07/07/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
07/06/10 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
07/03/10 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
07/01/10 4-4-0 50.00% -200 Detail
Totals 10-16-0 38.46% -3800

Thursday, July 8Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tulsa - 7:00 PM ET Indiana -14 500 *****
Indiana - Over 154 500 *****

San Antonio - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota -2.5 500 *****
Minnesota - Over 153.5 500 *****

Good Luck !

**StarDust Bum** · 07-08-2010, 06:21 PM

Hot starting pitchers on the hill for Thursday night

The Thursday night baseball betting board has a handful of hurlers taking the mound looking to extend a run of hot pitching. All five of them are favorites, but of varying degrees, meaning there is still some value to be found. Let’s take a look at these surging starting pitchers and whether or not it's worth laying some chalk tonight with any. For more key betting info on all of Thursday’s games, be sure to visit the GAME MATCHUPS page.

(907) SAN DIEGO (LATOS) at (908) WASHINGTON (ATILANO) 7:05 PM
No one in all of Major League Baseball is hotter than Mat Latos of San Diego right now, and that includes Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, or any other team’s ace. Latos has been near unhittable for the last two-plus months. In fact, in his last 12 starts, Latos boasts a WHIP of just 0.819 and an ERA of 1.70, having yielded just 15 earned runs in 79-1/3 innings.

Oddsmakers at YouWager.com list the Padres as -145 favorites right now on the road in Washington as the N.L. West Division leaders look to salvage a win in their 3-game set with the Nationals. Having lost the first two games by a run on each occasion, bettors may be interested to know that:

SAN DIEGO is 9-1 (+9.1 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 5.1, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 1*)

(909) CINCINNATI (CUETO) at (910) PHILADELPHIA (KENDRICK) 7:05 PM
Everyone’s degree of hot from here on out won’t reach the level of Mat Latos of San Diego, but still there are some noteworthy recent performances that you’ll want to consider as you handicap Thursday night’s action. Cincinnati’s Johnny Cueto is one of the pitchers to note. He has had a pair of 4-game hot stretches this season in which he has sparkled. His current stretch finds him having allowed just a pair of earned runs in his last 25-2/3 innings, for an ERA of 0.70.

Cueto has been really solid on the road against good teams of late:

CUETO is 6-0 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was CUETO 6.0, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 1*)

Perhaps most important though, Cueto’s teammates are playing as good as they have all year long, having gone 12-4 in their L16 games to open up a 3-game lead in the N.L. Central over the Cardinals. YouWager lists Cincinnati as a slight -115 favorite over slumping Philadelphia.

(913) CHICAGO CUBS (WELLS) at (914) LA DODGERS (KERSHAW) 10:10 PM
The Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw has been relatively quietly putting up one of the best seasons for a starter in the National League, quietly because he isn’t even an all-star. Since being roughed up by the Brewers back in his first start of May, Kershaw has been on fire. In 11 starts since, he has gone 73-2/3 innings while allowing just 18 earned runs for an ERA of 2.20 and WHIP of 1.032. Perhaps the best indicator of his dominance has been the fact that he has struck out 80 hitters in that span.

Kershaw’s dominance combined with the Cubs recent struggles at the plate make him a -195 favorite for Thursday, but according to this extremely powerful betting system, that price shouldn’t even be given a second thought:

Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (CHICAGO CUBS) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. (54-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.5%, +42.6 units. Rating = 4*)

(921) BALTIMORE (GUTHRIE) at (922) TEXAS (HUNTER) 8:05 PM
Tommy Hunter has only been in the Texas rotation since the start of June, but his solid pitching has been one of the catalysts behind the Rangers’ recent surge. They are 6-0 in his starts, and while his stats are impressive (1.98 ERA, 1.156 WHIP), perhaps the most unbelievable number comes from the fact that Rangers’ hitters have provided him with 9.6 runs per game of support.

Texas is a heavy -260 favorite according to YouWager.com but according to the following trend, the Rangers should be nearly automatic against the lowly O’s:

BALTIMORE is 1-19 (-17.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 2.8, OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 4*)

(923) NY YANKEES (PETTITTE) at (924) SEATTLE (VARGAS) 10:10 PM
Andy Pettitte has to be given some props for his performance of late as well, and you can trace his run of success back all the way to the 2009 ALCS. Including three postseason starts, the Yankees are 16-3 in his last 19 outings, and he owns a personal record of 13-2 in that span. While not as scintillating as some of the other numbers posted earlier, Pettitte has been in a word “solid”. In those 16 starts, his ERA has been 2.99 with a WHIP of 1.184. Most importantly, the Yankees have been winning with him on the hill. Matched against another southpaw in Jason Vargas of Seattle, Pettitte and New York are -155 favorites.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-08-2010, 06:22 PM

Crazy-good pitching matchup in Colorado Thursday

Thursday’s Major League Baseball betting board boasts some interesting starting pitcher matchups, none more scintillating that that in Colorado, where the aces of the Rockies and Cardinals will square off in a matinee. It’s Ubaldo Jimenez (14-1) for the hosts and Chris Carpenter (9-2) for the visitors. What makes this even more interesting is that both pitchers come off arguably their worst outings of the season, and will look to turn it around in their final starts before the all-star break. Jimenez is a -140 favorite according to oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com, but most of the key betting info indicates that is an overpricing.

For all the momentum the Colorado Rockies have heading into their series finale with the St. Louis Cardinals, their best player is lacking in that area. All-Star pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez tries to regain his dominant form and help the Rockies sweep a three-game set from the Cardinals on Thursday afternoon.

The Rockies (46-38) have rallied in dramatic fashion for both their victories in this series. After erasing a six-run deficit with a nine-run ninth inning Tuesday, Colorado gradually wiped away a 5-0 fifth-inning deficit to win 8-7 on Chris Iannetta's leadoff homer in the ninth Wednesday.

Colorado's surge could continue if Jimenez (14-1, 2.27 ERA) reverts to form. The right-hander has struggled in his last three outings - giving up 17 runs and 19 hits in 17 2-3 innings - after a phenomenal 14-start stretch to open 2010 in which he conceded 13 runs in 101 1-3 innings.

Jimenez, in fact, may have endured what likely will be his worst single inning of the year Saturday. San Francisco reached him for seven runs in the third, but the Rockies bailed out their staff ace by rallying to take a lead before eventually losing 11-8. Jimenez allowed five hits and walked four in six innings, but he still has a personal eight-game winning streak.

Despite his recent woes, a victory would make Jimenez the first pitcher to have 15 wins by the All-Star break since David Wells did so for Toronto in 2000. Greg Maddux was the last NL pitcher to accomplish the feat back in 1988 with the Cubs.

Jimenez is 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA in four starts against the Cardinals (45-39).

Chris Carpenter (9-2, 3.16) looks to help the Cardinals avoid the sweep. The right-hander had a personal five-game winning streak snapped Saturday when Milwaukee tagged him for eight runs and nine hits in three-plus innings of a 12-5 defeat, pushing his ERA up nearly one-half run following his worst outing of the year.

Carpenter did not get a decision in his only start against the Rockies last year despite limiting them to one run in seven innings. He is a phenomenal 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA in five outings versus Colorado, going 1-0 with a 0.63 ERA in two starts at Coors Field.

There is a fairly strong FoxSheets Super Situation indicating that the edge in this battle of the aces could go to Carpenter. Take a look:

Play Against - Any team (COLORADO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 80%. (39-19 since 1997.) (67.2%, +20.3 units. Rating = 2*)

The ******* Power Ratings show that St. Louis should be a -105 favorite, not an underdog, so the value really seems to be on that side of the line.

Carpenter has proven to be a good stop gap for his team on the road when dealing with defeat:

CARPENTER is 54-31 (+22.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was CARPENTER 5.6, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)

Still, the Cardinals ace will need to slow a Colorado offense that has pounded out 83 hits in the L6 games while leaving 79 men on base.

Game start time is 3:10 PM ET from Coors Field.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-08-2010, 06:23 PM

Thursday Late Tips

The Thursday night baseball card wraps up with three games out west, as these clubs begin their final series before the All-Star Break. The Yankees, Cubs, Marlins all continue West Coast swings against non-division opponents, as we'll start in the desert with the Fish trying to swim past the Snakes.

Marlins at Diamondbacks - 9:40 PM EST

Two struggling teams get together at Chase Field for a four-game series as both clubs try to end the first half on a solid note. The D-Backs are just 1-4 since the firing of manager A.J. Hinch last Thursday, while scoring only 10 runs in the four losses. The Marlins picked up a series opening victory over the Dodgers, but were trounced on Tuesday at Los Angeles, 7-3.

Rodrigo Lopez (4-7, 4.43 ERA) looks to rebound after getting knocked around by the Dodgers his last time out, allowing nine runs (two earned) in 3.2 innings of a 14-1 drubbing. The veteran beat the Yankees and Rays in his two previous outings as healthy underdogs, but Lopez owns a 2-4 mark at Chase Field with an ERA of 5.08. Lopez has never faced the Marlins in his career, while Arizona is 2-5 in his seven home starts as a 'dog.

The Marlins send out Anibal Sanchez (7-5, 3.35 ERA), who tries to turn around his luck following consecutive losses to the Braves and Padres. Florida is 2-4 the previous six times Sanchez has started, but the righty has put together quality outings in seven of his last 10 trips to the hill. The Marlins have struggled in Sanchez's career as a road favorite, putting together a 2-6 mark, with the two wins coming this season at Baltimore and Houston.

Florida and Arizona split a two-game series at Sun Life Stadium in mid-May, as that series was dominated by the Hanley Ramirez controversy in which the All-Star shortstop was reprimanded for not hustling after a flyball. The Marlins and D-Backs split a four-game set in Phoenix last July, which included a 14-7 Florida victory as the Fish rallied from a 7-0 deficit to stun Arizona.

Cubs at Dodgers - 10:10 PM EST

Going out west was the cure to Chicago's ills, as the Cubs grabbed a series over the lowly D-Backs. Lou Piniella's team tries to keep its winning ways alive on the road at Chavez Ravine, taking on a Dodgers' club that has captured six of their past eight games.

Clayton Kershaw (8-4, 3.02 ERA) cruised to an easy win over Arizona in his last start, but went only 5.2 innings with eight strikeouts. The last time the southpaw took the mound at Dodger Stadium, Kershaw left with a 5-2 lead over the Yankees, as the Los Angeles bullpen blew the game and Dodgers lost in extras. The 'over' has cashed in five of Kershaw's last six starts, while the Dodgers are 6-3 in his nine home outings.

The inconsistent Randy Wells (4-6, 4.67 ERA) looks for his third straight quality start, coming off a solid victory over the NL Central-leading Reds last Saturday. Wells has allowed one earned run in each of his last two outings, but both those starts came at Wrigley Field. Pitching on the highway has been a different story for Wells, as the Cubs are 0-3 in his last three starts away from the North Side.

The Cubs took two of three games at Wrigley Field over the Dodgers back in late May, as both Chicago victories came via the shutout. The Dodgers are 6-2 the last eight home contests in this series, including a 3-1 mark last season.

Yankees at Mariners - 10:10 PM EST

New York is looking to avenge a home series loss to Seattle last week as the venue shifts to Safeco Field for this weekend set. The M's were led by aces Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez in underdog victories in the Bronx, but Seattle couldn't pull off the sweep when CC Sabathia shut down the Mariners in the series finale.

The Yankees started this West Coast swing with a series victory at Oakland, as veteran Andy Pettitte (10-2, 2.82 ERA) takes the mound. The All-Star lefty has pitched his best on the road, winning all three decisions, while the Yanks are 5-1 in his six away starts. The 'over' is 3-0 in each of Pettitte's last three starts, as New York averaged 9.3 runs/game in each of those victories.

Jason Vargas (6-4, 3.22 ERA) should be happy to be pitching back at Safeco Field following consecutive road losses to Detroit and Milwaukee. Vargas didn't receive any run support in the defeats, with the Mariners plating one run in those games. At home, the M's are 7-2 in Vargas' nine starts, including victories over the Angels, Twins, and Cubs.

The Yankees won four of seven games at Safeco Field last season, but the M's have held their own by splitting the last 14 meetings in this series. New York is 6-1 in its previous seven games on the road, while Seattle has dropped three straight at home following a five-game hot streak at Safeco.

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