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**bryce** · 07-07-2010, 05:06 PM

Good luck Stardust!

**StarDust Bum** · 07-07-2010, 05:22 PM

Five teams go for sweeps on Wednesday

Another full schedule of 15 baseball games awaits on Wednesday night, and interestingly, in one-third of them, one of the teams is looking to wrap up a 3-game sweep of its opponent. The Cubs, Tigers, Rays, Yankees, and Royals all have a chance to finish off already successful series’. Let’s take a look at those matchups, focusing specifically on the sweep aspect and how we might take advantage for Wednesday. Get all of the key betting information for these and all 10 other MLB games on the GAME MATCHUPS page.

(963) CHICAGO CUBS (DEMPSTER) at (964) ARIZONA (JACKSON) 9:40 PM
With a road record of 17-24 this season, sweeps are obviously a rarity for the Cubs when away from Wrigleyville. In fact, it has only happened one time in 2010, that being a 3-game set back in Milwaukee in late April. The Diamondbacks have been swept twice at home this season, as they lost six straight games to the Brewers and Dodgers back in May.

Tonight’s pitching matchup features Ryan Dempster vs. Edwin Jackson. The Cubs are just 6-11 in Dempster’s starts, while Arizona has won four straight games with Jackson on the hill, including the no-hitter at Tampa on June 25th.

One of the more interesting trends for today’s game concerns the Cubs’ struggles as road chalk this season:

CHICAGO CUBS are 5-12 (-11.4 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.2, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)

Dempster and the Cubs are playing as -115 favorites, but the ******* Game Estimator indicates the line should be only -107. With Jackson pitching well of late, I’d say there’s a better chance the D-Backs avoid the sweep than the opposite.

(969) BALTIMORE (BERGESEN) at (970) DETROIT (SCHERZER) 7:05 PM
The most likely sweep on the board today finds the Tigers looking for their third straight win over the Orioles. Detroit is a heavy -235 favorite according to Sports.com with Max Scherzer (5-6, 4.88 ERA) taking the hill for the hosts and Bradley Bergesen (3-5, 6.64) going for the O’s. Baltimore is of course no stranger to seeing the brooms on the road, having been swept five times already in 2010. The Tigers are looking for their fifth home sweep themselves, and boast the American League’s best home mark overall at 29-12.

While the price on this one seems fairly steep with Scherzer’s overall 2010 numbers, the fact that he has a 1.69 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 25-2/3 innings in his last four starts makes it even tougher to back the underdogs. Plus, how can you overlook a trend like this:

BALTIMORE is 10-40 (-24.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.1, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 3*)

(971) BOSTON (WAKEFIELD) at (972) TAMPA BAY (PRICE) 7:10 PM
When I focused on Game 1 of the 3-game set between the Red Sox and Rays on Monday night, I pointed out the following trend, which now includes back-to-back losses over the last two nights:

BOSTON is 3-19 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 3.0, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 4*)

Having been turned back in consecutive one-run games, the Red Sox turn to Tim Wakefield to stop the bleeding. Unfortunately, Boston is only 5-8 in his starts this season and he is matched by a pitcher enjoying a breakout season in David Price (11-4, 2.42 ERA).

Perhaps the one thing going for the Sox here today is that WAKEFIELD is 18-6 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.79 and a WHIP of 1.249.

At -175, the Rays have been favored by a nickel more in each of the three consecutive contests. Considering that Boston has not been swept on the road since the beginning of May, and actually did the sweeping last time in Tampa (5/24-5/26), I’d be leery of laying this high price for Wednesday. The Sox left 11 men on base on Tuesday and are scoring 5.8 runs per game vs. lefties in 2010. They could be due for a breakout game.

(977) NY YANKEES (BURNETT) at (978) OAKLAND (GONZALEZ) 10:05 PM
As far as season numbers go, the A’s and Mariners have distinct starting pitching advantages in their quests to avoid getting swept at home. The A’s match Gio Gonzalez (7-5, 3.50 ERA) against the Yankees’ A.J. Burnett (6-7, 4.90). The latter has been on the hill for six straight Yankees’ losses. Although he pitched very well in his last outing at Toronto, Burnett’s five prior starts amounted to 29 runs allowed in 23 innings. Gonzalez meanwhile, has only allowed five or more runs in two of his 17 starts this season, and has allowed just one run in 19-2/3 innings in his last three starts. Even with all of this info available for both pitchers, oddsmakers have installed the Yankees as -120 favorites. It all sets up for a very powerful system backing the home dogs:

Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. (56-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.9%, +38.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The A’s offense is struggling right now, but it might not matter with Gonzalez on the hill. Look for Oakland to avoid a second 3-game home sweep of 2010.

(979) KANSAS CITY (DAVIES) at (980) SEATTLE (FISTER) 10:10 PM
Don’t look now but the Royals are playing very good baseball, and they will look for their first series sweep of 3-games or more in 2010 when they take on Seattle Wednesday night. Oddsmakers don’t like their chances, installing the Mariners are -145 favorites behind Doug Fister, but when sifting through the facts & figures, bettors may see things differently.

First and foremost, the Royals are killing the baseball of late, pounding out 125 hits during their current 9-3 surge. While leaving men on base has been a problem, they are getting just enough pitching to come out on the right end of the scoreboard most often.

The Mariners have gone just 4-8 since their season long 7-game winning streak was snapped a couple weeks back. The magic number for them has been five runs, as they are 4-0 in the 12-game stretch when reaching that figure as opposed to 0-8 when coming up short.

One other angle going for Kansas City is that Fister, while boasting strong stats for 2010 overall (3.22 ERA, 1.047 WHIP), has struggled his last three times out, yielding 14 runs in 16-1/3 innings.

Davies has been pretty effective for the Royals against lesser hitting teams on the road lately:

DAVIES is 8-3 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was DAVIES 5.7, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)

Don’t be surprised to see the Royals finish this one off, despite oddsmakers’ indications.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-07-2010, 05:28 PM

Wednesday Tips

The Wednesday baseball card is a busy night slate highlighted by plenty of solid matchups. The White Sox and Angels continue their four-game set at U.S. Cellular Field, while the Giants try to knock off the Brewers once again in Milwaukee. We'll start in the Sunshine State with a pair of rivals that looking to one-up each other in the AL East.

Red Sox at Rays - 7:10 PM EST

Tampa Bay pulled off a massive rally to stun Boston on Monday night, 6-5, coming back from a 5-1 deficit. It was only the second time in 10 meetings this season that the home team has won, while the Sox suffered their first loss at Tropicana Field in four tries.

All-Star David Price (11-4, 2.42 ERA) looks to bounce back from a loss in his last start, allowing four hits and two earned runs in eight innings of a 2-1 setback at Minnesota. Run support is key for the southpaw, as the Rays are 0-5 when they score less than three runs for Price, but 11-0 when they plate at least four runs. This doesn't help totals players, with the 'unders' and 'overs' fluctuating all season for Price, even though the Rays have hit three straight 'unders' for the lefty. Price hasn't faced the Red Sox this season, as the Rays split his two starts against Boston in 2009.

Tim Wakefield (3-6, 4.96 ERA) takes the ball for the Sox, looking to capitalize off a victory in his last start against the Orioles. Wakefield scattered seven hits and two earned runs in eight innings, the third straight quality start for the knuckleballer. Unfortunately, Wakefield's numbers against Tampa Bay have been dreadful, giving up 16 earned runs in his last three outings versus the Rays (1-2).

The 'over' has profited recently for the Rays, hitting in six of the last seven games, with Tampa Bay tallying at least five runs six times in this span. Following the 'over' in Monday's loss, the 'over' has hit in four of the previous six on the road for the Sox.

Giants at Brewers - 8:10 PM EST

San Francisco drew first blood in this four-game set with a 6-1 victory on Monday, scoring six late runs for just their second win in the last ten games. Milwaukee's offense has dried up over the last two days, scoring only two runs combined after putting up 12 runs on Saturday at St. Louis.

Reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum (8-4, 3.28 ERA) has hit the skids over his previous two starts, allowing eight earned runs in losses to the Red Sox and Rockies. Lincecum went 4-0 in June, but faced weak offenses in Baltimore, Oakland, Houston, and Pittsburgh. The diminutive ace struggled against the Brewers on Opening Day last season, allowing four hits and three earned runs in three innings, but got off the hook as San Francisco pulled out a 10-6 win.

Chris Narveson (7-5, 5.29 ERA) has seen his most success at Miller Park, winning each of his last three starts at home against the Rangers, Twins, and Mariners. Narveson was on the wrong end of a 5-0 loss at St. Louis his last time out, giving up seven hits and four earned runs in five innings, the fourth straight road start in which the southpaw hasn't picked up a win.

The Giants are just 1-4 the previous five games as a road favorite, while going 5-2 to the 'over' in their last seven road games overall. Milwaukee is 2-4 the last six at home, while winning each of its last three as a home underdog.

Angels at White Sox - 8:10 PM EST

Chicago continues its push towards the top of the AL Central, sitting one game behind Detroit heading into Tuesday's action. The Sox blew out the Angels in the opener of a four-game set at U.S. Cellular Field, dropping Los Angeles to 3 ½ games behind Texas in the AL West race.

Freddy Garcia (8-3, 4.65 ERA) has turned into Chicago's most profitable pitcher, as the Sox have won his last seven starts. Garcia's numbers at home (5-2) is nearly similar to the road (6-2), which has made the veteran a solid play regardless of the locale. The righty hasn't faced the Angels since 2006, as the Sox have won his last six starts in this series.

The inconsistent Joe Saunders (6-8, 4.59 ERA) takes the mound for the Halos, going for his second win since June 10. The southpaw has delivered consecutive quality starts after allowing 11 earned runs in losses to the Brewers and Cubs. Saunders has performed well on the road with a mark and ERA of 3.32 on the highway, while winning earlier this season on the South Side by scattering four hits and one run in a 3-2 victory.

The Sox have won eight of their previous nine games at U.S. Cellular Field, while four of their last six at home have finished 'under' the total. The Angels are 13-5 the last 18 on the road, but have dropped two straight on the highway.

Cardinals at Rockies - 8:40 PM EST

St. Louis looks to make up ground in the NL Central on Cincinnati, as the Redbirds continue their series at Coors Field against the Rockies. Colorado is playing well of late, winning five of seven games, including a home series victory over San Francisco. The Cards try to find consistency as Tony LaRussa's squad has split their last ten games, while playing under .500 teams like the Royals, Diamondbacks, and Brewers.

Rookie Jaime Garcia (8-4, 2.10 ERA) has shined as the third ace of this Cardinals' staff, coming off a dominating seven-inning scoreless effort over Milwaukee. Unfortunately, the Cards have alternated wins and losses in each of his last eight starts. Garcia has turned into nearly an automatic 'under' play, cashing it in 13 of 16 outings, including seven of eight on the road.

Aaron Cook (3-5, 4.63 ERA) is the ultimate home-road dichotomy, with the Rockies winning five of his seven starts at Coors Field. Cook shut down the Giants his last time out, putting together a quality start in each of his previous three trips to the mound. The Rockies were 0-6 in Cook's six career starts against the Cardinals prior to last season, but the righty bounced back with two victories over St. Louis in 2009.

Colorado grabbed six of seven meetings last season, while the Rockies own an 18-9 mark in Game 2's this season. The Cardinals have scored five runs or more in six of the last eight games, as St. Louis is 5-1 in those contests.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-07-2010, 05:32 PM

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

Pirates at Astros – The Astros are 0-5 since July 07, 2009 when Brian Moehler starts after the team won his last two starts for a net profit of $545 when playing against.

Yankees at Athletics – The Yankees are 9-0 since June 08, 2009 after a win in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $910. The Yankees are 0-6 since May 09, 2010 when A.J. Burnett starts after the team won their last two games for a net profit of $830 when playing against. The Athletics are 0-6 since July 30, 2009 when Gio Gonzalez starts after a quality start and ts:site=away and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Twins at Blue Jays – The Twins are 9-0 since April 25, 2009 when Kevin Slowey starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $945. The Twins are 0-9 since May 15, 2009 within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $920 when playing against. The Twins are 7-0 since May 14, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after allowing 6+ runs win for a net profit of $755. The Blue Jays are 0-9 since September 01, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base as a dog for a net profit of $900 when playing against.

Giants at Brewers – The Giants are 8-0 since May 26, 2009 when Tim Lincecum starts as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $800. The Giants are 0-6 since April 18, 2009 when Tim Lincecum starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $855 when playing against.

Cubs at Diamondbacks – The Cubs are 0-5 since June 06, 2009 when Ryan Dempster starts vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $560 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 5-0 since May 17, 2010 when Edwin Jackson starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $660.

Marlins at Dodgers – The Marlins are 6-0 since August 26, 2009 when Josh Johnson starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $620. The Marlins are 5-0 since April 29, 2009 when Josh Johnson starts when he is off a start in which the bullpen allowed more runs that they did and lost for a net profit of $580.

Royals at Mariners – The Royals are 5-0 since August 11, 2009 when Kyle Davies starts on the road after his team won the last time he started vs. this opponent for a net profit of $740. The Mariners are 0-9 since May 06, 2010 after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $935 when playing against.

Reds at Mets – The Reds are 5-0 since September 30, 2009 when Bronson Arroyo starts within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a quality start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $535. The Mets are 9-0 since April 20, 2010 at home within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $955. The Mets are 8-0 since August 05, 2009 when Jonathon Niese starts at home vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $885.

Padres at Nationals – The Padres are 0-8 since June 13, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Nationals are 0-6 since May 29, 2010 when J.D. Martin starts for a net profit of $615 when playing against.

Braves at Phillies – The Braves are 6-0 since August 20, 2009 as a dog when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $740. The Braves are 6-0 since May 08, 2010 when Kris Medlen starts as a ‘dog vs. a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $696. The Phillies are 5-0 since June 11, 2009 when Jamie Moyer starts the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $590.

Indians at Rangers – The Indians are 6-0 since April 24, 2010 as a road dog after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $965. The Rangers are 10-0 since July 31, 2009 as a home favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000.

Red Sox at Rays – The Red Sox are 0-9 since August 06, 2009 as a road dog vs a team that has won at least their last three games for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Red Sox are 0-7 since August 05, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Rays are 0-5 since August 20, 2009 as a home favorite vs. a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $880 when playing against.

Cardinals at Rockies – The Cardinals are 8-0 since June 23, 2009 as a road favorite after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $800.

Orioles at Tigers – The Orioles are 0-7 since May 19, 2009 when Bradley Bergesen starts as a road dog after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Tigers are 11-0 since April 29, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $1155.

Angels at White Sox – The Angels are 0-6 since August 25, 2009 when they are off two losses in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $760 when playing against.

**Udog** · 07-07-2010, 07:40 PM

Great reading, Bum! Thanks! Good luck!

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