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**BettorsChat** · 07-06-2010, 05:22 PM

gl Stardust

**StarDust Bum** · 07-06-2010, 05:31 PM

Smokin' aces: Top MLB pitchers to play and fade

All season long, I’ll isolate two starting pitchers to play and two to fade in a two-week window.

I’m looking for pitchers that boast value. That means I won’t always be targeting Cy Young candidates.

Here’s a look at this week’s list.

Money makers

Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox ace got off to an awful start, going winless through his first three starts of the season while allowing 15 earned runs. But he’s certainly made up for it since.

Since May 20, Lester has started nine games. He’s held eight of those nine opponents to two earned runs or less. Lester was outstanding in his first July start, shutting down the Orioles over seven innings in a 9-3 Red Sox win. That should come as no surprise, as he’s a career 9-2 pitcher with a 2.92 ERA in 18 appearances in the month of July.

The good news for Lester backers is that there’s some value to be had with the Red Sox missing a number of key bats. This isn’t a team short on depth and they’ve certainly held their ground in the absence of guys like Pedroia, Martinez and Ellsbury.

Mat Latos, San Diego Padres

All this kid does is win ball games.

Latos is 9-4 on the season and has gone 8-1 dating back to May 7. He’s absolutely locked in right now, allowing a grand total of one earned run over his last three starts, spanning 20 2-3 innings pitched.

The one deficiency Latos has shown is his control or lack thereof. However, he seems to be working on those issues, having tossed just seven walks over his last five starts.

Now is the time to back Latos and the Padres. He may start to show some signs of wear later in the season. Keep in mind, he threw just over 50 innings as a rookie in 2009. He’s already up to 99 2-3 innings this season.

The Padres still aren’t being priced as a true contender, yet they currently reside atop the NL West standings, holding a 3.5-game edge over the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Bankroll burners

Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels

There was a four-start stretch in late May and early June where Santana looked to be unbeatable. He’s fallen on hard times since.

The Angels have won just two of Santana’s last five starts and he’s allowed at least seven hits and three earned runs in all five outings.

At the start of June, his ERA sat at a season-low 3.29, but it’s now approaching four, currently at 3.95. Opponents have been teeing off, collecting 40 hits in his Santana’s last 32 innings of work.

To make matters worse, the Angels will play 13 of their next 17 games on the road, where Santana owns a career ERA north of 5.00.

July has traditionally been his worst month, posting an 11-12 record to go along with a 5.79 ERA and 1.51 WHIP.

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies

Cole Hamels is having a tough time getting out of his own way right now.

The Phillies are just 1-6 in his last seven outings, with Hamels posting a 1-5 record over that stretch.

It’s not that is numbers have been all that dreadful over that stretch, but he’s had a tough time avoiding the long ball and has been issuing free passes with regularity. Hamels has allowed at least at least one home run in five of his last six starts and has walked two or more in all six.

Not helping matters are the Phillies’ offensive struggles. With Chase Utley and Placido Polanco both sidelined, there are gaping holes in the lineup. That’s not to mention the fact they’re without their top two catchers.

Hamels has traditionally been a strong finisher, so we can expect him to turn it around as the month progresses. For now, he’s on our fade list, as are the struggling Phillies.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-06-2010, 05:37 PM

Pitching mismatch in Orioles-Tigers contest

If you consider nothing more than stats, there are some decisive starting pitching mismatches on the Tuesday night baseball slate, perhaps none bigger than that in Detroit between the Tigers’ Armando Galarraga and the Orioles’ Jake Arrieta. Not only that, but Detroit is in first place in the A.L. Central Division while Baltimore is in last in the A.L. East. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com opened the line for Tuesday’s contest at Tigers -170, but it has quickly shot up to -190 and could go much higher by game time, if bettors get a hold of a powerful system in play.

Galarraga (3-2, 4.50 ERA) was the talk of the majors when he essentially retired all 28 batters he faced June 2, the last after umpire Jim Joyce blew what would have been the game's final out at first base. However, he has a lowly 6.00 ERA since his controversial one-hitter, and the Detroit Tigers right-hander will look to bounce back from his shortest outing of the season when he takes the mound against the visiting Orioles.

Though it seemed like that might be an indication that Galarraga was reverting back to his form from his rookie 2008 season (13-7, 3.73 ERA), he has since looked more like the pitcher that went 6-10 with a 5.64 ERA last season.

If there's hope for Galarraga, it's that he's pitched well at home even aside from the one-hitter. He's 2-0 with a 2.22 ERA in five games at Comerica, but just 1-2 with a 7.78 ERA on the road.

Additionally, the Tigers (44-37) have proven difficult to beat at home regardless of who's on the mound. Detroit is an AL-best 28-12 at home.

Going for the Orioles, is Jake Arrieta (2-2, 5.81), who has the potential to be great, and the rookie right-hander won his first two major league starts while posting a 2.77 ERA. Since though, he's 0-2 with an 8.78 ERA in his last three.

Interim manager Juan Samuel certainly wasn't happy after Baltimore's fourth loss in five games Monday, hinting at roster changes - likely in his taxed bullpen - before the series continues.

"We're looking at a lot of things - whether we need an extra pitcher after using the 'pen so much today or whether we need another hitter," he said.

The extensive usage of the bullpen sets up against the Orioles in a very powerful FoxSheets Super Situation, one that has won six of every seven games over the last five seasons:

Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start, after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings. (59-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.5%, +41.2 units. Rating = 4*)

Galarraga’s success also draws a huge trend indicating to fade Baltimore:

BALTIMORE is 1-18 (-16.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 2.7, OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 3*)

Baltimore has done very little well this season, and playing on the road (9-32, -17.0 units) and at night (16-42, -21.8 units) have been two of the worst situational spots. Tonight of course, they combine.

The ******* Power Rating Line shows Detroit -200, and it’s a good bet that the actual line at Sportsbook.com reaches that level or higher by first pitch, which is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-06-2010, 05:39 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

Pirates at Astros - The Astros are 7-0 since May 08, 2009 when Wandy Rodriguez starts at home after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $710. The Astros are 0-6 since July 26, 2009 at home when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $730 when playing against.

Yankees at Athletics - The Yankees are 10-0 since April 11, 2009 as a road 140+ favorite after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $1000. The Yankees are 6-0 since May 14, 2009 when CC Sabathia starts on the road after he went at least eight innings in his previous start and they won for a net profit of $605. The Athletics are 7-0 since September 02, 2009 when Trevor Cahill starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $780.

Twins at Blue Jays - The Twins are 0-5 since June 18, 2010 and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $570 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 0-5 since April 27, 2010 after scoring 6+ runs loss for a net profit of $500 when playing against.

Giants at Brewers - The Giants are 0-8 since April 26, 2009 on the road after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $840 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-6 since April 14, 2009 as a home favorite after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $830 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-6 since April 17, 2010 when Randy Wolf starts as a favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Cubs at Diamondbacks - The Cubs are 0-5 since August 30, 2009 as a favorite after a win in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $815 when playing against.

Marlins at Dodgers - The Marlins are 6-0 since April 14, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a one run win for a net profit of $970. The Marlins are 0-6 since May 10, 2009 when Christopher Volstad starts as a dog after the team won their last two games for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Dodgers are 12-0 since July 18, 2009 as a 140+ favorite vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1200.

Royals at Mariners - The Royals are 0-6 since May 09, 2009 when Zack Greinke starts after giving up no walks at home for a net profit of $705 when playing against.

Reds at Mets - The Reds are 6-0 since April 28, 2010 on the road after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $730. The Mets are 5-0 since May 11, 2010 at home when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $570.

Padres at Nationals - The Nationals are 5-0 since May 04, 2010 when Livan Hernandez starts at home in the first game of a series for a net profit of $520.

Braves at Phillies - The Braves are 0-7 since June 16, 2009 when Jair Jurrjens starts after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $990 when playing against. The Braves are 6-0 since April 22, 2009 when Jair Jurrjens starts vs a team that lost their starters last three starts for a net profit of $600. The Phillies are 0-5 since June 21, 2009 when Cole Hamels starts as a favorite after a quality start and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $725 when playing against.

Indians at Rangers - The Indians are 0-9 since August 25, 2009 when Justin Masterson starts after throwing more than 100 pitches at home for a net profit of $910 when playing against. The Indians are 0-8 since April 19, 2009 as a dog when they are off a game in which they scored in at least five separate innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Rangers are 8-0 since April 27, 2010 when C.J. Wilson starts as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $800.

Red Sox at Rays - The Red Sox are 0-8 since May 14, 2009 as a road dog after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Rays are 0-3 since April 08, 2010 when Jeff Niemann starts as a home favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $555 when playing against.

Cardinals at Rockies - The Cardinals are 0-6 since April 20, 2010 as an underdog vs a team that has a worse record for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Rockies are 0-5 since April 10, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $820 when playing against.

Orioles at Tigers - The Tigers are 10-0 since April 29, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $1055. The Tigers are 9-0 since April 29, 2010 at home after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $1060.

Angels at White Sox - The White Sox are 0-7 since August 02, 2009 at home after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $940 when playing against. The White Sox are 7-0 since June 10, 2010 after scoring 6+ runs win for a net profit of $740. The Angels are 6-0 since April 26, 2009 when Jered Weaver starts vs a team that has averaged fewer than six strikeouts per game for a net profit of $605.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-06-2010, 05:40 PM

Tuesday Tips

The All-Star Game is one week away in Anaheim as teams look to finish up the first half on a solid note. Several clubs trying to make their way up in their respective divisions meet on the South Side when the White Sox host the Angels, while the Rays and Red Sox renew acquaintances at Tropicana Field. We'll start in Philadelphia with the struggling Phillies taking on the Braves.

Braves at Phillies - 7:05 PM EST

Philadelphia's push towards the top of the NL East took a hit this past week with series losses at Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, but the Phillies started their series on a strong note with a 3-1 victory over the Braves on Monday. Atlanta failed to capture a sweep over Florida on Sunday, but the Braves finished a nine-game homestand at 6-3.

Jair Jurrjens (1-3, 5.59 ERA) makes his second start since getting activated from the disabled list with a hamstring injury. Jurrjens threw 85 pitches in five innings of work his last time out, a 4-1 home victory over the Nationals. The righty scattered six hits and one earned run to pick up only his first win of the season, coming off a 14-victory campaign in 2009. The Braves split Jurrjens' four starts against the Phillies last season, but the righty delivered seven innings in each of the last three outings.

The Phillies send out southpaw Cole Hamels (6-7, 4.07 ERA), who has failed to pick up a victory in his last three trips to the hill. Hamels put together a solid start his last time out, allowing five hits and three earned runs in seven innings of work in a 3-2 road loss to the Pirates. The former World Series MVP has delivered four quality starts in his previous five outings, but the Phillies are 1-4 in this span. Hamels recorded just two outs the last time he faced the Braves at Turner Field, as a rain delay ended the left-hander's night in a 7-3 defeat.

The season series is knotted up at 5-5 after Roy Halladay's complete-game gem last night. Philadelphia grabbed two of three over Atlanta at Citizens Bank Park in early May, as all three meetings finished 'under' the total.

Reds at Mets - 7:10 PM EST

The Mets return to the Big Apple after trips to Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C. over the past week to host the surging Reds. Cincinnati has rebounded following its embarrassing offensive showing in Seattle two weeks ago by winning 10 of 13 games to pull into first place of the NL Central.

The task won't be easy for the Reds, who face Johan Santana (5-5, 3.41 ERA) in the second game of this series. The Mets' ace put up his first quality start in a month with a no-decision at Washington, but New York lost in walk-off fashion to the Nats, 2-1. Santana gave up six hits and one earned run in seven innings at Washington, but the Mets dropped to 1-6 in his last previous seven starts. New York is a perfect 4-0 against Cincinnati in Santana's four starts since he signed with the Mets in 2008.

Aaron Harang (6-7, 5.02 ERA) was scratched on Monday due to tightness in his back, as the tall righty looks to go tonight. The Reds have struggled when Harang starts on the road, racking up a 1-5 mark in his six outings on the highway. Harang hopes to lift the Reds to another underdog victory, as Cincinnati has won seven straight games when listed at plus-money.

The Reds have held opponents to three runs or less in eight of their last 11 road contests, while cashing the 'under' seven times. The 'under' has hit at a nice rate for the Mets at Citi Field over the previous five weeks, going 12-4.

Red Sox at Rays - 7:10 PM EST

Don't look now, but those pesky Red Sox have passed the Rays in the AL East with Terry Francona's club continuing their series at Tampa Bay. The best thing to happen to the Rays was them leaving town, as Joe Maddon's squad grabbed four of six on their road trip, including three of four at Minnesota.

These two division rivals met a week ago at Fenway Park with each team capturing a victory. The road team is now 8-2 in this season's series, as the Rays rallied for a 6-5 triumph in the series opener on Monday. The Sox send out rookie Felix Doubront (1-0, 5.40 ERA), who gets his first nod since beating the Dodgers in his big-league debut on June 18. The southpaw wasn't spectacular against Los Angeles, allowing five runs (three earned) in five innings, but the Sox managed to give Doubront strong run support in a 10-6 win.

Jeff Niemann (6-2, 2.80 ERA) has been an amazing road pitcher in his short tenure with the Rays, while pitching at home hasn't yielded the same results. Tampa Bay is 8-0 in his eight road starts this season, but just 4-4 in Niemann's outings at Tropicana Field. The former Rice Owl hasn't recorded a win since a complete-game shutout against Toronto on June 8, while posting a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts. Niemann was the tough-luck loser of Edwin Jackson's 149-pitch no-hitter on June 25, suffering a 1-0 loss to Arizona despite striking out eight in 7.1 innings.

The beat-up Sox have managed to pick up some ground in the division even though Dustin Pedroia and Victor Martinez were placed on the disabled list over the last ten days. Boston owns a 7-3 mark the last nine games as a road underdog, while Tampa Bay is just 4-7 the previous ten contests at the Trop.

Angels at White Sox - 8:10 PM EST

The two teams that met in the 2005 ALCS continue their series at U.S. Cellular Field with both clubs throwing out their aces. Jered Weaver and Jake Peavy each take the ball, as the Sox bounced the Halos last night, 9-2.

Weaver (8-3, 2.65 ERA) has been dominating over the last six weeks, with the Angels winning five of his previous seven outings. In this stretch, the righty has not allowed a run in four starts, while striking out at least six in all seven trips to the mound. Weaver's totals have been interesting, with the 'over' cashing in eight of his nine road starts, but the 'under' going a perfect 7-0 at home. The Angels have won all five of Weaver's career starts against the White Sox, with each start finishing 'under' the total.

Peavy (7-6, 4.70 ERA) has excelled following a slow start to the season, putting together five straight quality starts, while allowing seven earned runs in this span. The former Cy Young Award winner suffered a loss his last time out at Kansas City, giving up three earned runs in a 7-6 loss as a short underdog. Peavy looks to bounce back against an Angels' squad that knocked around the ex-Padre to the tune of eight hits and six earned runs in six innings of a 6-5 home loss on May 20.

The Sox have won eight of their past nine at home, with five of those games finishing 'under' the total. Interestingly enough, the Angels have played 15 of their previous 19 games at home with the lone road trip to the Windy City. However, the Halos battled the Cubs in interleague play and took two of three from Chicago as each game sailed 'over' the total.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-06-2010, 07:19 PM

Penny sent home after bullpen session

DENVER (AP) -Cardinals right-hander Brad Penny was sent back to St. Louis after experiencing tightness in his injured right arm during a bullpen session Tuesday.

Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa said Penny experienced tightness in his triceps and lat muscle when he got on the mound to throw a simulated game. Penny was sent to St. Louis to be examined.

LaRussa added the setback was ``a big negative. It is what it is but you can't belabor it because it's not good for the club.''

Penny was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a right lat strain May 22. He is 3-4 with a 3.23 ERA in nine starts this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-06-2010, 07:20 PM

Phillies send Happ to minors

PHILADELPHIA (AP) -J.A. Happ has to earn back his spot in the rotation.

The Philadelphia Phillies activated the left-hander from the disabled list and sent him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday.

``I was honest with him. I think he just wasn't pitching well enough to be in our rotation right now,'' general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said. ``I think he will soon. But just from the way we evaluated him and the way he threw, he's making progress, but not well enough to break into our rotation at this time.''

Happ, a 12-game winner as a rookie last year, had been sidelined with a left forearm strain since April. He made six rehab starts in the minors, going 1-1 with a 6.93 ERA. Happ said Monday that he was ready to rejoin the team, but the Phillies want him to get more work in the minors.

``He should get down there and work to get back up as soon as possible,'' pitching coach Rich Dubee said. ``We've seen progress. It just didn't come fast enough.''

Happ finished 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 35 games, including 23 starts, last season. He was second to Florida's Chris Coghlan in voting for the NL Rookie of the Year award.

Happ most likely would replace Kyle Kendrick in the rotation at some point. Kendrick is 5-3 with a 4.70 ERA.

The two-time NL champion Phillies entered Tuesday night's game against Atlanta four games behind the first-place Braves. Injuries have been a problem. Five-time All-Star Chase Utley and Placido Polanco, the team's leading hitter, are currently sidelined. So are catcher Carlos Ruiz and key relievers Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin.

Amaro said he's exploring help through trades, focusing more on helping the pitching staff rather than adding an infielder to replace Utley or Polanco.

``I'm always more concerned about the pitching,'' Amaro said. ``At the end of the day, our team should be able to handle the loss of a couple of these guys offensively. It's difficult, but with the talent that we have offensively we should be able to absorb that. But you can never have enough pitching.''

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