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**StarDust Bum** · 07-05-2010, 11:21 AM

Monday's Tip Sheet

Tonight’s diamond action has an eight-pack of evening battles on tap and even though we haven’t reached the All-Star break just yet, three of the matchups could be potential playoff clashes. Let’s take a closer look at the trio on tap.
Atlanta (48-34, +924) at Philadelphia (42-38, -966)

Most pundits expected Philadelphia to be the class of the National League East, considering its claimed the division three years in a row and the club acquired All-Star pitcher Roy Halladay (9-7, 2.42 ERA) in the offseason. However, the Phillies have been plagued by injuries and the team trails Atlanta by five games in the NL East. The club will have a chance to cut into the gap this week, when the Braves come to town for a three-game set. Halladay already faced the Braves this season (4/21) and he earned a complete game victory (2-0) on the road. However, that’s when the pitcher was dominating and he was garnering a little more support too.

The Phillies started the season by winning six of Halladay’s first seven appearances but the team has only managed to go 3-8 over his last 11 starts and it’s hard to blame the right-hander. In all of the eight losses, the offense has been held to three runs or less. The inconsistent attack has been plagued by injuries and the latest casualty is second baseman Chase Utley (thumb). Even without Utley in the lineup, the Phillies put up 17 runs against the Pirates over the weekend but they still dropped two of three.

Atlanta has definitely overachieved this season, largely due to a league-best 30-10 record at home. Including this series, the Braves will finish the All-Star break with six straight games outside of Georgia and they’ve only produced an 18-24 road mark. Plus, 15 of their last 18 were at home and the three road tilts during this stretch were all losses – to the White Sox. Derek Lowe (9-6, 4.53 ERA) enters this game off a 7-2 loss last week to Washington, lasting 5 2/3 innings while giving up eight hits and four earned runs. Lowe has faced the Phillies three times this season and was roughed up for losses in his first two starts, but rebounded in his most recent appearance (6/2) for a 2-1 victory.

The Braves have won five of the nine encounters against the Phillies this season, but have gone 1-2 in Philadelphia. The ‘under’ is 6-3 during this span and that includes a perfect 3-0 mark at Citizens Bank Park. Tonight’s total is listed at 8 runs, and Halladay has been made a healthy favorite (-180) at home.

Cincinnati (47-36, +933) at N.Y. Mets (46-36, +959)

The Reds and Mets are arguably two of the biggest surprises this season and the pair will find out whose better when they go head-to-head for a three-game set at Citi Field. Cincinnati has been successful at home (27-19) this season, plus it owns a solid road record (20-17) as well.

Dusty Baker’s team has also been able to stroke the long ball this season. They’ve hit 102 home runs, which is tied with Milwaukee for the most in the majors. Over this weekend, the Reds took three of four from the Cubs at Wrigley Field and they drilled nine homers during the series. Cincy will look to close the All-Star break strong with Aaron Harang (6-7, 5.02 ERA) taking the mound tonight. The Reds have gone 7-10 in his 17 appearances and that includes a 1-5 road mark.

Harang will have to bring his best stuff to the hill tonight because the Mets are countering with Mike Pelfrey (10-2, 2.93 ERA) and he’s been nasty. New York has won 14 of his 17 appearances, and that includes eight of nine from Flushing. Despite the high marks at home, Pelfrey has only been installed as a $1.30 favorite (Bet $130 to win $100) at most outfits.

Cincinnati took two of three from the Mets in early May but all three of the decisions were decided by exactly one run. The total went 1-1-1 and tonight’s number is listed at 8 ½ runs.

Boston (49-33,+268) at Tampa Bay (48-38, -38)

The Red Sox and Rays continue their rivalry from Tropicana Field for a quick three-game set and the latest trends in this series have leaned toward the visitor. In the first nine meetings this season, the road team has gone 8-1, which includes a three-game sweep by Boston over Tampa in late May. Despite being swept at home, the Rays have won five of six at Boston this season. Total players have watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 in the first nine encounters.

Tonight’s matchup will be a pitching rematch between Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka (5-3, 4.50 ERA) and Tampa’s Matt Garza (9-5, 4.80 ERA), who squared off last Wednesday from Fenway Park. The Rays led 3-1 after seven strong innings from Garza before both teams erupted in the eighth inning for nine runs, six of them coming from Tampa. The 9-4 victory for the Rays snapped the Red Sox’s seven-game home winning streak. Dice-K went six innings in the loss and only surrendered four hits and three earned runs.

Boston went 2-1 over the weekend at home against Baltimore, while Tampa Bay took three of four from Minnesota on the road. Garza has been installed as a decent favorite (-140) over the Red Sox and most books have the total listed at 9, shaded to the under (-120).

**BettorsChat** · 07-05-2010, 12:23 PM

gl Stardust

**StarDust Bum** · 07-05-2010, 01:44 PM

Handicapping deck stacked against Boston?

The Red Sox and Rays are both nipping at the heels of the A.L. East-leading Yankees, each within 2-games of the top spot. Boston currently leads the wildcard race by a half-game. It goes without saying that the teams will open a meaningful series on Monday night at 7:10 PM ET in Tampa. The Rays are -140 favorites according to Bookmaker.com but that could end up being much higher when bettors get their hands on the following powerful systems and trends backing the hosts from FoxSheets.

One of the first things I like to consider is the status of the bullpens. We all know that betting lines are predicated first and foremost on starting pitching. It is for that reason that line value can be pulled from less obvious factors. Note that despite the 5-2 record in their last seven games, the Red Sox bullpen has been awful during the stretch, with an ERA of 8.15. At the same time, the Rays are only 4-3 in their L7 games, but their relief staff has been stellar, with a 0.962 WHIP during the stretch. That difference sets up for a very strong system for tonight:

Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (BOSTON) - with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 10 games against opponent with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games. (69-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.9%, +34.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The other thing that stands out to me is the drastic differential in home/road dichotomy between these teams. In fact, there are two angles so powerful on each side of the coin that there seems to be only one way to bet tonight’s game. Take a look.

BOSTON was 3-17 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of last season. The average score was BOSTON 3.0, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 3*)

TAMPA BAY is 46-20 (+22.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 5.2, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)

That first angle is actually quite shocking. With Boston having played its 82nd game yesterday, we are now officially into the second half of the season. Unless something changes in 2010, this angle could have a profound effect on Boston’s playoff chances. The Sox face potentially 11 different series’ the rest of the way against winning teams on the road, including two each at both Tampa and New York.

Tampa Bay is convinced the recent swoon is finally behind them. The Rays, who struggled for more than a month after racing to a 32-12 start, enters this seven-game homestand on an upswing after taking three of four from Minnesota, capped by Sunday's 7-4 victory.

Boston, which begins a six-game road swing with this contest, was denied a sweep of last-place Baltimore on Sunday with a 6-1 defeat.

Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka (5-3, 4.50 ERA) gets his second crack at Matt Garza (9-5, 4.08) and the Rays in five days. The right-hander has struggled with his control since coming off the disabled list due to a strained forearm, walking eight in 11 innings over two starts.

He lasted six innings versus Garza on Wednesday, giving up three runs and four hits with four walks in a 9-4 defeat. Matsuzaka is 2-5 with a 4.10 ERA in 10 starts against the Rays, but did get a victory in his most recent outing at Tampa Bay in 2008.

Garza appears to be finding his groove as he tries to become Tampa Bay's second 10-game winner along with David Price. He yielded three runs in seven-plus innings against the Red Sox for his fourth win in five starts.

The right-hander is 2-1 in three starts versus Boston this season, with the loss coming at home May 26. Garza is 7-3 with a 3.40 ERA in 15 career starts against the Red Sox.

The ******* Power Line indicates that the Rays are slightly overpriced, indicating that they should be a favorite of only -124.

**Kaptain** · 07-05-2010, 02:30 PM

gl today BUM....especially with the GOY

**StarDust Bum** · 07-05-2010, 05:06 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday

Yankees at Athletics – The Yankees are 8-0 since May 15, 2009 as a favorite after a one run win and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800. The Yankees are 0-4 since April 14, 2010 when Javier Vazquez starts as a favorite after giving up 2 or more home runs for a net profit of $590 when playing against.

Giants at Brewers – The Brewers are 8-0 since September 06, 2009 as a favorite when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $800.

Cubs at Diamondbacks –The Cubs are 0-4 since April 11, 2010 when Tom Gorzelanny starts after his team won the last time he started vs. this opponent for a net profit of $525 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 6-0 since April 20, 2009 at home after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $700.

Marlins at Dodgers – The Marlins are 5-0 since April 14, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a one run win for a net profit of $805. The League is 0-4 since June 25, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $770 when playing against. The Dodgers are 7-0 since May 06, 2010 when John Ely starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $775.

Royals at Mariners – The Royals are 0-8 since May 23, 2009 as a 140+ dog after being shutout for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The League is 0-4 since June 25, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $770 when playing against.

Reds at Mets – The Reds are 0-7 since April 05, 2010 when Aaron Harang starts as a dog after his team lost the last time he started vs. this opponent for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Reds are 5-0 since August 07, 2009 on the road after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $730. The Mets are 5-0 since September 06, 2009 when Michael Pelfrey starts at home when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $555.

Braves at Phillies – The League is 0-15 since October 01, 2009 as a road 140+ dog after a loss in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings for a net profit of $1500 when playing against. The Braves are 9-0 since May 08, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $941. The Braves are 7-0 since August 29, 2009 when Derek Lowe starts on the road after his team won the last time he started vs. this opponent for a net profit of $835. The Phillies are 0-3 since May 18, 2010 when Roy Halladay starts as a home favorite after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $620 when playing against.

Red Sox at Rays – The Red Sox are 7-0 since June 02, 2009 when Daisuke Matsuzaka starts after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $740. The Rays are 0-6 since April 14, 2009 when Matt Garza starts as a favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits on the road for a net profit of $840 when playing against.

Orioles at Tigers – The Tigers are 8-0 since April 29, 2010 at home after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $960.

Angels at White Sox – The White Sox are 7-0 since June 09, 2010 when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $815. The Angels are 5-0 since May 22, 2010 when Scott Kazmir starts on the road for a net profit of $605.

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