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**StarDust Bum** · 07-04-2010, 10:15 AM

4th celebrates America, baseball, betting

The 4th of July holiday celebrates America’s independence, and nothing signifies one’s freedom more than being able to lay down a few wagers on baseball, America’s game, on America’s birthday. As much as our elected officials seem to want to go to any length to deny us of that freedom, it’s still a passion that all of us reading this piece share. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the recent holiday history of Major League Baseball’s 30 teams, in hopes of uncovering which clubs are sparklers and which play like duds on this most celebratory of days.

Before getting to each team, it’s important to note that overall, home field advantage has been significant in 4th of July games. In fact, since ’97, the year since which all the records below are noted, home teams have gone 116-78, good for a 59.8% win rate and +23.1 units of profit on this holiday. You have to figure that teams are more comfortable playing in front of the home folks in what is one of the most family-friendly days of the year. That said, let’s get to the teams and their performances on July 4th since ’97.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
4th of July Record Overall: 8-4, +5 Units (#4 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 6-3-3
At Home: 2-2
On the Road: 6-2
Trend(s): Arizona has lost two in a row at home and four of five overall and will be hosting the Dodgers Sunday.

ATLANTA BRAVES
4th of July Record Overall: 9-4, +4.7 Units (#5 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 6-7-0
At Home: 7-2
On the Road: 2-2
Trend(s): Braves have won five of L6 July 4th games at home.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
4th of July Record Overall: 7-7, +3.1 Units (#6 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 9-4-1
At Home: 2-1
On the Road: 5-6
Trend(s): Six of L7 July 4th games for the Orioles have gone OVER the total, while they have yielded 8.1 runs per game.

BOSTON RED SOX
4th of July Record Overall: 7-6, -1.9 Units (#21 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 9-4-0
At Home: 2-2
On the Road: 5-4
Trend(s): Boston is on an 8-2 OVER the total run on the 4th, having scored 8.6 RPG, and will be facing Baltimore, another OVER trending team, on Sunday.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
4th of July Record Overall: 5-8, -5 Units (#27 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 6-7-0
At Home: 4-4
On the Road: 1-4
Trend(s): The White Sox have lost four straight 4th of July road games, all as favorites, and will be in Texas this year.

CHICAGO CUBS
4th of July Record Overall: 4-9, -7.4 Units (#29 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 6-7-0
At Home: 2-3
On the Road: 2-6
Trend(s): The Cubs have struggled on this holiday over the last 11 years, going just 2-9 while scoring just 2.2 RPG.

CINCINNATI REDS
4th of July Record Overall: 6-7, -1.4 Units (#20 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 4-7-2
At Home: 4-5
On the Road: 2-2
Trend(s): Cincinnati is on a 4-2 run in 4th of July games but hasn’t played on the road since ’06.

CLEVELAND INDIANS
4th of July Record Overall: 6-8, -3.6 Units (#24 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 9-5-0
At Home: 6-2
On the Road: 0-6
Trend(s): Including a 19-1 thrashing of the Yankees in ’06, Cleveland has won its L4 games on this holiday at home and will host Oakland this season.

COLORADO ROCKIES
4th of July Record Overall: 5-8, -4.4 Units (#25 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 7-6-0
At Home: 4-3
On the Road: 1-5
Trend(s): Colorado has played its L6 July 4th games at home, going 4-2 and 4-2 OVER. Those games produced an incredible 18.2 RPG.

DETROIT TIGERS
4th of July Record Overall: 7-8, -0.4 Units (#14 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 7-7-1
At Home: 3-1
On the Road: 4-7
Trend(s): This year’s game versus Seattle will be just Detroit’s second home 4th of July game since ’01. The Tigers have lost their L7 on the road but won the sole home game in that span.

FLORIDA MARLINS
4th of July Record Overall: 7-6, +2 Units (#9 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 5-7-1
At Home: 5-1
On the Road: 2-5
Trend(s): Florida has lost its L3 Independence Day road games, but by a combined four runs.

HOUSTON ASTROS
4th of July Record Overall: 4-9, -7.2 Units (#28 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 7-6-0
At Home: 2-6
On the Road: 2-3
Trend(s): The 4th holiday has been a struggle for the Astros, as they are just 4-9 since ’97 for -7.2 units, better than only two other clubs.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
4th of July Record Overall: 6-7, +0.9 Units (#11 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 7-5-1
At Home: 5-2
On the Road: 1-5
Trend(s): Kansas City will look to avoid a 5-game 4th of July road losing streak in Anaheim on Sunday.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS
4th of July Record Overall: 6-7, -2.3 Units (#22 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 7-5-1
At Home: 3-5
On the Road: 3-2
Trend(s): Four of the L5 Angels’ Independence Day games have gone OVER the total, as they’ve scored 8.0 RPG themselves.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS
4th of July Record Overall: 8-5, +2.7 Units (#8 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 4-8-1
At Home: 3-2
On the Road: 5-3
Trend(s): The Dodgers are on a 4-2 run overall on the 4th of July and 3-1 on the road and will be in Arizona on Sunday.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
4th of July Record Overall: 6-7, -1.2 Units (#19 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 6-4-3
At Home: 2-4
On the Road: 4-3
Trend(s): Milwaukee has enjoyed its most recent 4th of July games, going 4-1 in its L5 while outscoring opponents 31-12.

MINNESOTA TWINS
4th of July Record Overall: 6-7, -1.1 Units (#18 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 6-5-2
At Home: 3-3
On the Road: 3-4
Trend(s): Minnesota will look to extend a 3-game holiday winning streak when it hosts Tampa Bay for its first 4th of July game at new Target Field.

NEW YORK METS
4th of July Record Overall: 7-6, +1.1 Units (#10 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 6-6-1
At Home: 5-0
On the Road: 2-6
Trend(s): The Mets have lost their last three 4th of July games, all on the road, and will put that skid on the line at Washington.

NEW YORK YANKEES
4th of July Record Overall: 5-8, -7.6 Units (#30 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 8-4-1
At Home: 4-5
On the Road: 1-3
Trend(s): The Yankees have been the biggest duds in baseball on this specific holiday, going 5-8 for a league worst -7.6 units since ’97. The OVER the total is 6-0-1 in the L7, with opponents bashing New York pitching for 8.6 RPG.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
4th of July Record Overall: 6-6, -0.5 Units (#15 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 5-7-0
At Home: 3-3
On the Road: 3-3
Trend(s): Six of the L8 Oakland games on Independence Day have gone UNDER the total.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
4th of July Record Overall: 10-3, +6.8 Units (#2 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 6-7-0
At Home: 6-3
On the Road: 4-0
Trend(s): Philadelphia, the city where our country’s Independence was born, has the best profit record of any team in baseball on the 4th of July since ’98, going 10-2 while outscoring foes 63-30.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
4th of July Record Overall: 6-7, +0 Units (#12 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 8-4-1
At Home: 3-3
On the Road: 3-4
Trend(s): Little changes for Pittsburgh on this special holiday when compared to every other day of the season, as the Pirates are just 1-4 dating back to ’05, outscored 36-16.

SAN DIEGO PADRES
4th of July Record Overall: 8-4, +5.6 Units (#3 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 6-5-1
At Home: 6-2
On the Road: 2-2
Trend(s): San Diego is on a strong 6-1 run at home on the 4th of July and welcomes lowly Houston for the 4-game series finale on Sunday.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
4th of July Record Overall: 6-8, -3.6 Units (#23 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 7-6-1
At Home: 4-4
On the Road: 2-4
Trend(s): Six of the L7 San Francisco 4th of July games have gone over the total. Average Score – Giants 7.1 , Opponents 6.7

SEATTLE MARINERS
4th of July Record Overall: 7-6, -0.2 Units (#13 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 4-9-0
At Home: 2-1
On the Road: 5-5
Trend(s): Seattle, in Detroit on Sunday, has won three straight Independence Day road games, holding opposing lineups to three total runs. Plus, overall, eight of the L9 Mariners’ games on this holiday have gone UNDER the total.

ST LOUIS CARDINALS
4th of July Record Overall: 8-5, +3 Units (#7 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 6-4-3
At Home: 4-3
On the Road: 4-2
Trend(s): St. Louis has lost back-to-back 4th of July games after winning the prior eight.

TAMPA BAY RAYS
4th of July Record Overall: 3-9, -4.9 Units (#26 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 7-5-0
At Home: 3-2
On the Road: 0-7
Trend(s): The Rays have never won a 4th of July road game in seven tries, getting outscored 58-31. They’ll put that skid on the line in Minnesota on Sunday.

TEXAS RANGERS
4th of July Record Overall: 10-3, +9.6 Units (#1 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 7-6-0
At Home: 9-2
On the Road: 1-1
Trend(s): Texas has put up 4th of July offensive fireworks in going 10-3 since ’97, scoring 7.4 RPG, while producing a league best 9.6 units of profit.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
4th of July Record Overall: 6-6, -0.7 Units (#17 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 7-5-0
At Home: 3-0
On the Road: 3-6
Trend(s): Fittingly, Toronto’s last nine 4th of July games have been on American soil. The Jays are 3-6 in those and OVER the total is 7-2.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
4th of July Record Overall: 6-7, -0.7 Units (#16 of 30)
Totals (O-U-P): 6-7-0
At Home: 5-3
On the Road: 1-4
Trend(s): The Nationals’ franchise is a profitable 6-3 for +3.8 units in its L9 4th of July games.

Enjoy the holiday and all baseball the action on Sunday. Hopefully your bankroll explodes like a firecracker!

**StarDust Bum** · 07-04-2010, 10:16 AM

Top MLB Holiday Weekend Power Trends 7/2-7/4

CINCINNATI at CHICAGO CUBS

CHICAGO CUBS are 15-31 (-15.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.4, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 1*)

PHILADELPHIA at PITTSBURGH

PITTSBURGH is 21-55 (-31.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 2.9, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 3*)

NY METS at WASHINGTON

WASHINGTON is 45-25 UNDER (+16.6 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.0, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*)

FLORIDA at ATLANTA

FLORIDA is 38-22 (+18.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.9, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)

SAN FRANCISCO at COLORADO

SAN FRANCISCO is 9-16 (-10.4 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 3.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)

MILWAUKEE at ST LOUIS

ST LOUIS is 47-25 UNDER (+18.7 Units) vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.4, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)

LA DODGERS at ARIZONA

LA DODGERS are 22-11 OVER (+10.8 Units) vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 5.7, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)

HOUSTON at SAN DIEGO

HOUSTON is 9-2 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 5.5, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 3*)

TORONTO at NY YANKEES

TORONTO is 35-23 OVER (+11.0 Units) as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 4.7, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 0*)

SEATTLE at DETROIT

SEATTLE is 11-20 (-10.9 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was SEATTLE 3.7, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)

OAKLAND at CLEVELAND

CLEVELAND is 16-32 (-17.9 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)

BALTIMORE at BOSTON

BALTIMORE is 3-18 (-13.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 2.9, OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 1*)

CHI WHITE SOX at TEXAS

TEXAS is 45-23 (+18.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was TEXAS 5.6, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*)

TAMPA BAY at MINNESOTA

MINNESOTA is 40-18 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.4, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 0*)

KANSAS CITY at LA ANGELS

LA ANGELS are 65-35 (+21.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.4, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)

**Kaptain** · 07-04-2010, 12:42 PM

gl today my man.....have a fun but SAFE 4th.....appreciate your contributions hgere.....keep em coming

**StarDust Bum** · 07-04-2010, 02:38 PM

To all....have a happy and safe 4th...........

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