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**StarDust Bum** · 07-03-2010, 10:02 AM

Top MLB Holiday Weekend Power Trends 7/2-7/4

CINCINNATI at CHICAGO CUBS

CHICAGO CUBS are 15-31 (-15.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.4, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 1*)

PHILADELPHIA at PITTSBURGH

PITTSBURGH is 21-55 (-31.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 2.9, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 3*)

NY METS at WASHINGTON

WASHINGTON is 45-25 UNDER (+16.6 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.0, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*)

FLORIDA at ATLANTA

FLORIDA is 38-22 (+18.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.9, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)

SAN FRANCISCO at COLORADO

SAN FRANCISCO is 9-16 (-10.4 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 3.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)

MILWAUKEE at ST LOUIS

ST LOUIS is 47-25 UNDER (+18.7 Units) vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.4, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)

LA DODGERS at ARIZONA

LA DODGERS are 22-11 OVER (+10.8 Units) vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 5.7, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)

HOUSTON at SAN DIEGO

HOUSTON is 9-2 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 5.5, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 3*)

TORONTO at NY YANKEES

TORONTO is 35-23 OVER (+11.0 Units) as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 4.7, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 0*)

SEATTLE at DETROIT

SEATTLE is 11-20 (-10.9 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was SEATTLE 3.7, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)

OAKLAND at CLEVELAND

CLEVELAND is 16-32 (-17.9 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)

BALTIMORE at BOSTON

BALTIMORE is 3-18 (-13.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 2.9, OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 1*)

CHI WHITE SOX at TEXAS

TEXAS is 45-23 (+18.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was TEXAS 5.6, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*)

TAMPA BAY at MINNESOTA

MINNESOTA is 40-18 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.4, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 0*)

KANSAS CITY at LA ANGELS

LA ANGELS are 65-35 (+21.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.4, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)

**StarDust Bum** · 07-03-2010, 10:04 AM

Fox Saturday Baseball

Possible playoff matchups, divisional battles and seeing a phenom in the flesh are all on deck with Fox’s Saturday baseball. We’ve got three games showcasing those particular options for us for national broadcast. Let’s take a look at the matchups.

Marlins (37-41, -592) at Braves (46-33, +884) – 4:10 p.m. EDT

Atlanta is making the most of Bobby Cox’s final season as manager by holding onto the top spot in the National League East. Meanwhile, the Marlins are just hoping to keep relevant under new manager Edwin Rodriguez.

Tommy Hanson (7-5, 4.50) will get the starting nod to make things happen on Saturday afternoon. This game could be just what the doctor ordered for the young right-hander. Hanson hasn’t lasted four innings in his last two starts, giving up 14 earned runs in the process. However, he gone 2-0 with a 3.00 earned run average in three career starts against the Fish.

Florida comes into this game having a less than stellar start to the Rodriguez Era, going 3-5 since Fredi Gonzalez was relieved of his duties on June 23.

The Marlins will be looking to Anibal Sanchez (7-4, 3.18) for a jumpstart over the weekend. Sanchez is coming off of a great outing where he allowed just one earned run in six innings last Sunday at home against the Padres in a 4-2 losing decision. Florida has fared well in his recent road starts, evidenced by a 3-1 record in his last four starts away from Sun Life Stadium.

Florida has lost six of its last seven road games against NL East foes. The ‘under’ holds a slight 4-3 mark in those contests.

The Marlins also have an issue against right-handed pitching in day games as they’ve gone 2-4. Atlanta, on the other hand, is 8-1 against righties in afternoon tilts at Turner Field.

Rays (45-32, -152) at Twins (42-35, -60) – 4:10 p.m. EDT

There are always decent ways to spin a team that has won just four of their last 10 games. In the case of the Rays, they have picked up those last two games against Boston and hard fought series opener with Minnesota. We shouldn’t be surprised since Tampa Bay is 26-13 in fixtures played outside of Tropicana Field.

One of the bigger issues that Tampa Bay has had to deal with is poor backend pitching from Wade Davis (5-9, 4.08). The youngster had a respectable opening to the season. However, Davis has dropped five straight decisions. To be fair to him though, he did go 7.1 innings and allowed just two earned runs in a 2-1 loss at home to the D-Backs last Sunday. Unfortunately for bettors backing the Rays, Davis has lost three of his last four starts on the road.

Minnesota is experiencing similar problems when it comes to bad starts with Francisco Liriano (6-6, 3.47), who will be taking the mound on Saturday. Liriano has dropped his last three appearances for the Twins. And Target Field hasn’t been friendly to the former dead-eye as the Twinkies have lost four of his last five starts at home.

Tampa Bay has dropped four of its last six road day games this season. Focus on those tilts against southpaws and you’ll see the Rays split those two battles. The ‘under’ cashed in both of those contests.

The Twins have done well in home daytime affairs this season by going 9-7. But they’ve won five of their last eight tests at Target Field.

Mets (44-35, +882) at Nationals (35-45, -57) – 4:10 p.m. EDT

The Mets are only two games out of first place in the NL East right now, but might as well be 20 games out. New York has to feel like that right now after suffering its ninth walk-off defeat in a 2-1 decision at Nationals Park on Thursday night.

R.A. Dickey (6-1, 2.98) will take the ball for New York on Saturday after a five ER, five inning performance that lead to a 10-3 loss at Florida on June 28. No reason to worry for Mets fans as Dickey had won six straight before the setback to the Marlins. Plus, the Mets are 3-1 in his last four road tests.

Washington will play with its new toy on national television as Stephen Strasburg (2-2, 2.27) heads out for his next chance for the likes of Tim Kurkjian to go into a flop sweat. The Nats have lost his last three starts. Yet Strasburg has pitched well enough to win those three games by striking out 26 hitters and walking two. The Nationals’ bats have done nothing to help out by scoring just one run in those three outings.

The Nationals are big $2.00 home favorites (risk $200 to win $100) for this contest. And they haven’t been home faves against NL East teams this season. Over the past five years, however, they are 5-7 in this role…losing three of their last four in this role.

New York hasn’t been a great team to back as a road pup against divisional rivals this year, losing both contests. The ‘over’ cashed tickets in both games as well.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-03-2010, 04:07 PM

Underdogs can prove lucrative at Daytona

It’s had a handful of different names over the years, including Firecracker 400, Pepsi 400 and now Coke Zero 400, but Saturday night’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Daytona is always one of the best on the yearly schedule. This race is how NASCAR honors the 4th of July weekend, and it is well-recognized for fireworks both on and off the track. The combination of night racing, superspeedway action at the circuit’s most famous track, and holiday pageantry make the Coke Zero 400 “must-see TV”. On top of all that, Daytona is always competitive down to the final pass of the start-finish line, and while there are certain favorites who will be out front for much of Saturday’s race, underdogs are certainly capable of winning. Consider Jamie McMurray, winner of February’s Daytona 500, and owner of three straight Top 2 finishes on plate tracks. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com show him at an intriguing 16-1 price.

There are a handful of drivers who have consistently set the pace at Daytona and Talladega since the introduction of the COT in NASCAR back in ’07. In fact, there are four drivers that have led over 200 laps in the 11 plate races run in the new cars. Those would include Kyle Busch (310 LL, 13-2 odds), Denny Hamlin (244, 18-1), Tony Stewart (242, 6-1), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (201, 10-1). Of the four, Hamlin and Junior haven’t registered a win in that span, while Busch and Stewart have recorded two each. Jamie McMurray is the only other driver with multiple plate wins in that time frame. Furthermore, Stewart, Busch, and McMurray make up the last five winners of this race, with Stewart having accomplished the feat three times, including last July. As you analyze the stats for the plate tracks, note that they can be deceiving, as Busch and Stewart, despite their lofty laps led totals and multiple wins, are tied for just fourth in average finish in plate races since October ’07, with 15.91. A driver is just as likely to score a Top 10 finish in these races as he is to wreck and DNF.

As I just indicated, average finish statistics at Daytona can be misleading. Look no further than the fact that the driver with the lowest average finish in his career here is Clint Bowyer (14-1), with a very modest 17.9. He only owns two Top 5’s without a win in eight career starts. Jeff Gordon (8-1) paces the field with six career DIS wins but has not reached Victory lane at this prestigious venue since February ’05. Therefore, with the favorites being recognized earlier, albeit some with less than favorite odds, are there any other darkhorses to consider? Of course, and I would start with Kurt Busch (8-1), Matt Kenseth (12-1), Kevin Harvick (13-1), and Ryan Newman (22-1), each of whom is highly regarded for his plate-track prowess. In fact, the driver with the best record during the past three years is Kurt Busch. He entered this year's Daytona 500 with a five-race streak of top-10s; better still, four of these were top-fives and that means he was in contention to win on any given weekend. He hasn't won on this track yet, but with three second-place finishes, he's come close. His willingness to push other drivers across the finish line is actually part of his strength, in fact, because it means he is less likely to get into trouble while trying to make an ill-timed pass. Kenseth, Harvick, and Newman have all actually benefitted recently from Busch’s help, each with a recent Daytona 500 win to his credit. Their timing has proven to just be a little better than that of Busch. Juan Montoya, David Ragan, Elliott Sadler, and Kasey Kahne are also capable plate racers.

You may have noticed that I’ve yet to mention the name of Jimmie Johnson, the four-time defending series champion and winner of the series’ last two events. The truth is that Daytona has been far from his best track with just one win, 59 total laps led, and an average finish of 21.2 in 16 career starts. Sportsbook.com oddsmakers don’t seem to be taking him all that seriously for Saturday, listing him at 10-1 odds, well below his normal standard. In the COT, his average Daytona finish dips to 23.6 and he’s only been out front only five laps in five races. Jeff Gordon’s numbers haven’t been strong either, as he seems to have lost some of the plate track touch that highlighted the early part of his career. In the 11 COT plate races, he has a win, but that is his only top 5 in that span with an average finish of 24.8. Martin Truex has been even worse, with an average finish of 25.0 in those 11 starts and just a single Top 10. Of course, you can’t talk about plate track racing without mentioning the name of Mark Martin, whose disdain for it is well documented. The stats reflect it too. Though qualifying very well (5.9 average start), Martin has been bumped back often, with an average finish of 22.9 in his last eight starts.

I personally have attended this race three times in my near-decade long fandom of NASCAR. I’m telling you that very few sporting events can match the atmosphere like the Daytona summer race. Not only that, but the racing is breathtaking as well. Restrictor plate racing is a sight to see, and winning at Daytona is a coveted feat for any driver. Thus the action on the track is intense and competitive. There are a few things that are important to success at Daytona. Foremost is the ability to draft, while horsepower, and good aerodynamics run a close 2nd and 3rd. Aggressive drivers and rookies tend to be shunned out of the draft by the veterans. If this happens on the race’s last lap, a driver can fall as many as 15 spots in finishing position. The best plate drivers know how and when to make their move. One thing that isn’t all that important at Daytona, or plate tracks in general nowadays, is qualifying. As evidence, McMurray started 13th here in February, and only one of the last seven Daytona winners started in the Top 6. The chance for making up spots quickly is great. However, that said, it is good to at least demonstrate some horsepower in qualifying and practice. The lineup will be set on Friday at 4:10 PM ET.

It should be a colorful, exciting, and patriotic event as always, as the Sprint Cup Series runs its 18th race of the season, reaching the halfway point. The Green Flag is set to drop on Saturday at 7:49 PM ET on Saturday night. As always, the ******* NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are here to prepare you for all of the high speed excitement…

**StarDust Bum** · 07-03-2010, 07:34 PM

Two season rematches on Saturday Arena slate

Two of the three games on the Saturday Arena Football betting board are rematches from games earlier this season. Many football bettors believe that there is a lot to be gained by analyzing the most recent game between two clubs. Let’s breakdown this angle and any other info in the two contests to see if we can’t uncover any edges that might help us beat the Sportsbook.com lines available.

(359) ALABAMA at (360) JACKSONVILLE - 7:05 PM
Line: Jacksonville by 6.5
If the playoffs started today in Arena League, both Alabama & Jacksonville would represent the American Conference. However, for the visiting Vipers, a loss here could change that, as Orlando is breathing down their necks. For Alabama, the next four weeks will make or break the season, as they will square off against four straight playoff contenders after facing the league’s easiest schedule to date. In fact, when comparing the two schedule strength ratings of these foes, the difference is a full 5.6 points according to the ******* Power Ratings.

Schedule strengths aside, one of the Vipers’ biggest wins of the season came early against this same Jacksonville squad, 63-49 on April 9th. In that game, Alabama held the Sharks to a season low 190 yards of offense. The game seemed to be a wake-up call for Jacksonville though, as it went on to six straight wins. However, it has since lost two in a row against a pair of other hot teams.

It’s interesting to note that Jacksonville was a 4-point favorite last time around at Alabama. Also, the Sharks have gone OVER the total in three straight games.

The ******* Outplay Factor Ratings indicate Jacksonville should be favored by 9.3 points, counting 3-points for home field advantage. The Sharks are 4-1 at home in 2010, outscoring opponents by 7 PPG.

(363) OKLAHOMA CITY at (364) BOSSIER-SHREVEPORT - 8:05 PM
Line: Oklahoma City by 6
Saturday’s game between Oklahoma City and Bossier-Shreveport is a rematch of the highest scoring contest of the season, as OKC defeated BS 88-79 back on May 8th. However, as a sign of how much things have changed for the teams, perhaps starting with that game, the Yard Dawgz are now a 6-point road favorite after playing as a pick em’ in that earlier contest at home.

So what has exactly changed since then to sway the line so greatly? Well, first off, Bossier has won just one of its last nine games, that being a 1-point decision at lowly Dallas. The Battle Wings have struggled with quarterback play with Ray Philyaw being in and out of the lineup.

Oklahoma City is just 2-4 since that win and currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, but does have a very manageable schedule the rest of the way and could make a playoff push. They hope that started last week with the 35-31 win in Dallas. The Yard Dawgz have gone under the total in three straight games. However, according to this FoxSheets’ system, that makes them an attractive road favorite for tonight’s contest:

Play On - Favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. (24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The ******* Power Line shows OKC by 9. However, whether you have enough stomach to back a road favorite that hasn’t won a game in five tries away from home this season is for you to decide.

The other game on the Saturday night slate matches Cleveland and Orlando. This contest is the FREE FoxSheet of the Week, with the Predators playing as 4-point favorites.

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