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**StarDust Bum** · 07-02-2010, 05:34 PM

Top MLB Holiday Weekend Power Trends 7/2-7/4

The 4th of July holiday weekend is upon us and so is another full schedule of baseball action as we cruise towards the all-star break in just a week-and-a-half. Many experts believe this is a key point in the baseball season, as teams hope to set the tone for the unofficial second half of the season by making a push before the break. Some teams like the Reds, Brewers, White Sox, and Rangers are surging now, while others like the Jays and Giants are skidding. This weekend’s action will continue the pre-break patterns. Let’s take a look at what’s on tap for this weekend and reveal our list of Top ******* Power Trends that you’ll want to consider in your weekend wagering.

The interesting thing about the National League slate for this weekend is that only two teams with winning records are paired up, meaning the chasers have a chance to gain key ground but they need to play well. In Chicago, the Cubs may be reaching a point of desperation, and nothing shy of taking the final three games of a 4-game set with the Central-leading Reds will suffice. Cincinnati already won the series opener on Thursday in extra innings, putting the Cubs 10-1/2 games out. In that same division, the Brewers have a chance to make up some ground too, but unlike the Cubs, they got off to a good start in their own 4-game set with the Cardinals by winning 4-1 on Thursday. Milwaukee is playing some of its best baseball of the year, 8-3 in its L11 games, outscoring opponents 55-37 in that span. The Brewers have actually played very well in St. Louis too, going 15-7 over the last three seasons.

In the N.L. East, division leading Atlanta is at home against the Marlins. That is certainly good news for the Braves, who own the league’s best home mark at 28-9. They are currently two games up on New York who is in Washington this weekend and four games ahead of Philadelphia, who visits Pittsburgh. Both the Mets and Phillies got off to slow starts in their 4-game sets, losing the series openers. Out West, reeling San Francisco will be in Colorado hoping to snap a skid of 1-8 in its L9 games. Both teams are looking up at San Diego (home vs. Houston this weekend) and Los Angeles (at Arizona) in the standings.

In the American League, there are two key series’ to keep an eye on, both matching teams right in the thick of the playoff hunt. In Texas, the surging Sox come to town, although since winning 15 of 16 games entering Monday’s play, they have since lost three of four. The Rangers have also played very well of late, going 21-7 since the beginning of June to take over the West Division. In Minnesota, two teams that are struggling to recapture some earlier season magic are going head-to-head, as the Twins host the Rays. Tampa Bay won the series opener on Thursday night but is just 7-12 since June 10th, having slipped into third place in the East. The Twins have won just three of their last 10 games and have allowed both the Tigers and White Sox to creep to within a couple games of the Central lead.

The other current division leader in the Junior Circuit is New York, and the Yankees will host the sliding Jays this weekend. Toronto has lost nine of its L11 games and could be close to becoming a “seller” by the July 31 trade deadline. The Yankees have struggled with their pitching a bit of late, having allowed 5.6 runs per game in their L9. Boston is just 1-1/2 games back of New York right now and has what figures to be the easiest series on paper this weekend, hosting the Orioles, owners of the league’s worst record at 24-54. Baltimore has only won eight of 37 games on the road this season.

Now, let’s get to those Top ******* Power Trends we promised earlier….

CINCINNATI at CHICAGO CUBS

CHICAGO CUBS are 15-31 (-15.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.4, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 1*)

PHILADELPHIA at PITTSBURGH

PITTSBURGH is 21-55 (-31.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 2.9, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 3*)

NY METS at WASHINGTON

WASHINGTON is 45-25 UNDER (+16.6 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.0, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*)

FLORIDA at ATLANTA

FLORIDA is 38-22 (+18.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.9, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)

SAN FRANCISCO at COLORADO

SAN FRANCISCO is 9-16 (-10.4 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 3.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)

MILWAUKEE at ST LOUIS

ST LOUIS is 47-25 UNDER (+18.7 Units) vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.4, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)

LA DODGERS at ARIZONA

LA DODGERS are 22-11 OVER (+10.8 Units) vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 5.7, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)

HOUSTON at SAN DIEGO

HOUSTON is 9-2 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 5.5, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 3*)

TORONTO at NY YANKEES

TORONTO is 35-23 OVER (+11.0 Units) as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 4.7, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 0*)

SEATTLE at DETROIT

SEATTLE is 11-20 (-10.9 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was SEATTLE 3.7, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)

OAKLAND at CLEVELAND

CLEVELAND is 16-32 (-17.9 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)

BALTIMORE at BOSTON

BALTIMORE is 3-18 (-13.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 2.9, OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 1*)

CHI WHITE SOX at TEXAS

TEXAS is 45-23 (+18.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was TEXAS 5.6, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*)

TAMPA BAY at MINNESOTA

MINNESOTA is 40-18 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.4, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 0*)

KANSAS CITY at LA ANGELS

LA ANGELS are 65-35 (+21.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.4, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)

**StarDust Bum** · 07-02-2010, 05:36 PM

Totals worthy of consideration in Friday Arena

The totals for Arena Football have only been out for about five weeks now, but it seems that a pattern is developing, that being lower scoring each consecutive week. The four games on Friday night had totals released early with an average of 112.3, however, the numbers ranged all the way from 99 to 127. It’s clear there is margin for improvement by oddmakers on this wagering options. Let’s take a look at some strong FoxSheets systems in play for the Friday night games that look ready to pounce on the potential total mistakes.

Before digging into the games though, here’s a look at how scoring has gone in Arena Football by week this season. As you can see, it’s been all over the map, with the Week 13 games producing the second few average points of any week to date. In fact, scoring for the last four weeks has trended downward, perhaps not coincidentally with the first totals being released by oddsmakers in Week 10.

Week 1 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 113
Week 2 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 118.2
Week 3 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 114.3
Week 4 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 129.3
Week 5 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 116.7
Week 6 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 123.9
Week 7 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 104.1
Week 8 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 101.3
Week 9 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 111.9
Week 10 - Average Total: 110.5, Average Scoring: 115.1
Week 11 - Average Total: 112.6, Average Scoring: 114
Week 12 - Average Total: 113.7, Average Scoring: 113.4
Week 13 - Average Total: 112.2, Average Scoring: 102.1

Does this mean we’re headed for the lowest scoring week of 2010? Or should we expect an offensive outburst again, like that of Weeks 4 & 6? According to a few FoxSheets systems, I’d say the former. Take a look:

(351) CHICAGO at (352) TAMPA BAY - 8:00 PM
Tampa Bay and Chicago own the #1 and #3 ranked defenses in the Arena League in points allowed, respectively. However, both teams offenses have been on fire of late. Tampa Bay has won its last six games by scoring 60.7 PPG. Chicago is on a 3-game winning streak in which it has averaged 62.7 PPG. Apparently, bettors believe defense will still rule the day, as the total has been bet down from its opening number of 108 to its current position of 105. This strong system tends to agree:

Play Under - Any team when the total is greater than or equal to 100 (TAMPA BAY) - good team - outscoring opponents by 5 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 106 total points or more were scored. (109-65 over the last 10 seasons.) (62.6%, +37.5 units. Rating = 2*)

The ******* Game Estimator calls for about 116 points though. We’ll see what wins out.

(353) IOWA at (354) DALLAS - 8:30 PM
The Iowa-Dallas total has dropped a bunch too from its opening number of 103. It is now at 99, despite the fact that Iowa erupted for 68 points last week. That fact actually leads to a system suggesting to play the OVER:

Play Over - Any team when the total is between 90 and 99.5 points (IOWA) - after scoring 58 points or more last game. 79-41 over the last 10 seasons.) (65.8%, +33.9 units. Rating = 2*)

Dallas had a rough outing last week, posting just 31 points on Oklahoma City, but did score 57 PPG in its prior four contests.

(355) MILWAUKEE at (356) UTAH - 9:00 PM
Milwaukee has posted four games of 70+ points this season and Utah allows 66.7 on average. By doing some simple interpolation, you could probably determine that Milwaukee is bound for about 70 points this week, assuming no injuries or other unusual circumstances arise. With the total for the Iron-Blaze game set at 118, that would mean that Utah needs to get about 50 to take this game OVER the number. According to the following system, Utah should score 50, but Milwaukee will get nowhere near the 70 projected:

Play Under - Any team against the total (UTAH) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 60 or more points/game, after allowing 53 points or more in 3 straight games. (46-21 since 1996.) (68.7%, +22.9 units. Rating = 2*) The average total posted in these games was: 111.6 The average score in these games was: Team 50.7, Opponent 55.4 (Total points scored = 106.1)

Not only then does this angle offer up a good total opportunity, it also suggests the game might be much closer than oddsmakers have projected. Since opening as 22-point road favorites, Milwaukee has since been bet down to minus-20.

(357) ARIZONA at (358) SPOKANE - 11:00 PM
Arizona and Spokane have won with offense this season, as they are the top two scoring teams in all of the Arena League. In most cases, this would mean that a shootout is expected when the teams get together in Spokane on Friday night. Such is not the case in the history of the AFL, as both teams qualify for a frequent but profitable ******* Super Situation:

Play Under - Any team when the total is greater than or equal to 110 (ARIZONA) - good offensive team - scoring 55 or more points/game. (163-98 over the last 10 seasons.) (62.5%, +55.2 units. Rating = 2*)

This game pits two of the better overall teams in the league and should be good regardless of whether it goes over or under the posted total of 127.

This is a huge week for systems on the FoxSheets in Arena Football, both on sides and totals, some with as high as 93% success rates and 5 stars on our rating scale. Be sure to take advantage by signing on to the site anytime before Friday’s Week 14 kickoffs.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-02-2010, 05:38 PM

Friday's Triple Play

Fourth of July weekend is a time for good friends, good food, beer and injuries caused by illegal fireworks. It’s also the time for plenty of baseball. We’ve got a full slate on Friday to keep us entertained. Let’s take a look at a pair of those battles.

Mariners (33-45, -1,274) at Tigers (41-36, +393) – 7:05 p.m. EDT

Seattle makes the trip into the Motor City after dropping a 4-2 decision to the Yankees as a $3.00 road pup. Still, the Mariners have won three of their last five games to cut ease some of the pain.

The M’s will trot out Doug Fister (3-3, 2.81) to get this series off to a good start. Fister hasn’t been a bad option for Seattle to put out on the mound for the most part as he’s alternated wins and losses in his last five starts. The Mariners do take solace in knowing that they’ve won two of his last three road starts in 2010.

The Tigers know that games against the lower-tier clubs are important to win if they want to catch Minnesota for the AL Central crown. And you can be damn sure they want to pull the same type of fast one that the Twins did to them at the end of the 2009 campaign.

Detroit sends Mark Scherzer (4-6, 5.26) out to the mound on Friday evening. This isn’t a terrible for Jim Leyland to put him out there as Scherzer has won his last two decisions and pitched well enough to win three straight games last Saturday on the road against Atlanta. Also, the former Diamondback is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA for his career against the Mariners. And Scherzer has won his last three starts at Comerica Park.

The Motor City Kitties have fared well since 2008 as home favorites against AL West opponents, going 26-10. That includes a recent stretch of 15-5 in the last 20 matchups.

Seattle has dropped two of its three games as a road pup versus teams out of the AL Central. Stretch that out to the 2008 campaign and the M’s have posted a horrendous 12-30 mark in this situation.

Giants (40-37, -363) at Rockies (41-37, -167) – 8:10 p.m. EDT

Most people felt like these two teams would be the ones fighting for the National League West crown. Now they’re just trying to stay relevant as we delve into the depths of summer.

San Francisco has fallen on hard times as of late by losing seven of its last eight games. The Giants continue to have issues at the plate, scoring two or fewer runs in their past five contests – all losses, mind you.

The Giants will aim for their best offense being a good pitching performance out of Tim Lincecum (8-3, 3.13). One thing we can be certain of is that Lincecum will have some added incentive for this game after a lousy outing against the Red Sox on June 27. He gave up four earned runs on five hits and walked three batters in just three innings of work. That’s only the third time Lincecum has lasted three full innings. San Fran can look to his 3-0 record and earned run average of 2.54 (3.69 at home) away from AT&T Park for some encouragement. Surprisingly enough, the ‘over’ is 5-1-1 in his seven road appearances for San Francisco.

Colorado has to feel good about its chances to make a run towards at least the NL Wild Card since they’re coming back home. The Rockies have won seven of their last nine matches held at Coors Field. And Jim Tracy’s club is starting up a nice nine-game homestand to give them a shot at making that run.

For the Rox to keep some of that homespun momentum, they’ll need Jhoulys Chacin (4-7, 3.51) to pitch well. That isn’t fair to say since he’s actually done quite well in his last three starts, giving up four earned runs in 17.2 innings. Chacin has just had no support at the plate or from his defense. You can’t say that for every game recently as he has lost five of his last six starts.

Colorado has enjoyed success at home against the Giants, winning five of its eight home tests with them last season. The ‘over’ is just 4-3-1 in those games as well.

The Rockies have been a great team to back when listed a home ‘dogs, evidenced by a solid 4-1 mark in 2010. San Francisco, on the other hand, has gone 1-4 in five matches as a road “chalk” against NL West foes.

Rays (44-32, -255) at Twins (42-34, +53) – 8:10 p.m. EDT

Could this be a matchup we’ll see come October? Well, it sure as hell is a possibility. The only thing we need is both clubs to get back onto track.

The Rays have dropped four of their last 10 contests as they’ve fallen to third place in the AL East. That sounds pretty bad until you realize that is just two games behind the Yankees. Tampa Bay does have the advantage on the road this year as they are the best in the big leagues with a 25-13 record away from Tropicana Field.

David Price (11-3, 2.44) has arguably been the best pitcher for Tampa Bay. Price is coming off of a great 5-3 home win over the Diamondbacks on June 26. He gave up just two earned runs on seven hits in eight innings. It also doesn’t hurt that his command has been in good shape as he’s struck out 20 hitters, while giving just three free passes to first base. Another thing to note about Price is that he’s 6-2 with an ERA of 2.88 in his eight road starts this season.

Minnesota is still in first place in the AL Central, but they can no doubt feel the Tigers breathing down its neck. One way for the Twins to return a comfortable cushion with themselves and the rest of the division is to win at home. And they’re do just that at Target Field by going 25-14 in the new digs.

The Twinkies will aim for Scott Baker (6-7, 4.97) to get back on track for the chance to win this game. Baker has given up 11 earned runs in his last two starts this season. On the plus side, he’s gone 5-2 with a 3.55 ERA in eight home starts in 2010. But Baker has dropped his last two starts against the Rays.

Minnesota has feasted upon left-handed pitching at home this year, evidenced by an impressive 8-2 record. The ‘under’ is 7-3 in those games. Although the Twins have dropped two of their last three games as home pups.

The Rays have made the most of being road favorites by going 15-8 this season, which includes a recent 6-3 run. But they are just 7-16 against as road faves against the AL Central dating back to last year.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-02-2010, 05:39 PM

Diamond Trends - Friday

Royals at Angels – The Angels are 0-8 since October 20, 2009 at home after a one run win for a net profit of $985 when playing against.

Marlins at Braves – The Marlins are 13-0 since May 24, 2009 when Josh Johnson starts after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $1325. The Marlins are 6-0 since May 04, 2009 after a loss in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $845. The Braves are 0-7 since June 04, 2010 after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $710 when playing against.

Brewers at Cardinals – The Brewers are 5-0 since September 13, 2009 as a road dog when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $710. The Cardinals are 12-0 since July 17, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1200. The Cardinals are 7-0 since May 20, 2009 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start for a net profit of $760. The Cardinals are 0-5 since April 23, 2010 when Jaime Garcia starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $675 when playing against.

Reds at Cubs – The Reds are 7-0 since August 07, 2009 on the road after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $930. The Reds are 5-0 since May 11, 2009 when Bronson Arroyo starts on the road after losing as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $600. The Cubs are 7-0 since June 14, 2009 as a favorite when they are off two losses in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700.

Dodgers at Diamondbacks – The League is 8-0 since June 18, 2010 when they are off two wins in which they never trailed and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1105. The Dodgers are 5-0 since June 23, 2009 when Hiroki Kuroda starts within 20 cents of pickem when the bullpen has allowed at least one run for two straight games for a net profit of $505.

Athletics at Indians – The Athletics are 4-0 since July 05, 2009 when Gio Gonzalez starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters at home for a net profit of $705. The Indians are 4-0 since April 27, 2010 when Mitch Talbot starts as a dog after a quality start on the road for a net profit of $630.

Mets at Nationals – The Mets are 5-0 since July 25, 2009 when Jonathon Niese starts when the team is seeking immediate revenge for a loss as a favorite for a net profit of $540.

Astros at Padres – The Astros are 6-0 since June 01, 2009 when Roy Oswalt starts after the team lost his last two starts for a net profit of $650. The Padres are 7-0 since May 19, 2009 as a favorite when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $700.

Phillies at Pirates – The League is 0-9 since April 10, 2009 as a home 140+ dog when they are off two wins in which they never trailed for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-7 since June 19, 2009 when Ross Ohlendorf starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

White Sox at Rangers – The White Sox are 6-0 since April 29, 2010 on the road when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $710. The Rangers are 7-0 since September 21, 2009 as a favorite after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $700.

Orioles at Red Sox – The Orioles are 0-11 since August 09, 2009 as a road dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $1100 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-10 since May 21, 2009 as a 170+ dog after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Red Sox are 12-0 since June 09, 2009 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1200.

Giants at Rockies – The Giants are 0-5 since April 18, 2009 when Tim Lincecum starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $740 when playing against.

Mariners at Tigers – The Mariners are 0-8 since May 18, 2009 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Rays at Twins – The Rays are 8-0 since July 09, 2009 when David Price starts vs a team that lost their starters last two starts for a net profit of $810. The Rays are 7-0 since May 07, 2010 when David Price starts as a favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $700. The Twins are 10-0 since May 08, 2009 when Scott Baker starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $1000.

Blue Jays at Yankees – The Blue Jays are 0-9 since July 08, 2009 as a road dog after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 6-0 since August 31, 2009 when Brett Cecil starts as a dog in the first game of a series for a net profit of $800. The Yankees are 9-0 since August 08, 2009 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last four games for a net profit of $900.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-02-2010, 08:39 PM

Underdogs can prove lucrative at Daytona

It’s had a handful of different names over the years, including Firecracker 400, Pepsi 400 and now Coke Zero 400, but Saturday night’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Daytona is always one of the best on the yearly schedule. This race is how NASCAR honors the 4th of July weekend, and it is well-recognized for fireworks both on and off the track. The combination of night racing, superspeedway action at the circuit’s most famous track, and holiday pageantry make the Coke Zero 400 “must-see TV”. On top of all that, Daytona is always competitive down to the final pass of the start-finish line, and while there are certain favorites who will be out front for much of Saturday’s race, underdogs are certainly capable of winning. Consider Jamie McMurray, winner of February’s Daytona 500, and owner of three straight Top 2 finishes on plate tracks. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com show him at an intriguing 16-1 price.

There are a handful of drivers who have consistently set the pace at Daytona and Talladega since the introduction of the COT in NASCAR back in ’07. In fact, there are four drivers that have led over 200 laps in the 11 plate races run in the new cars. Those would include Kyle Busch (310 LL, 13-2 odds), Denny Hamlin (244, 18-1), Tony Stewart (242, 6-1), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (201, 10-1). Of the four, Hamlin and Junior haven’t registered a win in that span, while Busch and Stewart have recorded two each. Jamie McMurray is the only other driver with multiple plate wins in that time frame. Furthermore, Stewart, Busch, and McMurray make up the last five winners of this race, with Stewart having accomplished the feat three times, including last July. As you analyze the stats for the plate tracks, note that they can be deceiving, as Busch and Stewart, despite their lofty laps led totals and multiple wins, are tied for just fourth in average finish in plate races since October ’07, with 15.91. A driver is just as likely to score a Top 10 finish in these races as he is to wreck and DNF.

As I just indicated, average finish statistics at Daytona can be misleading. Look no further than the fact that the driver with the lowest average finish in his career here is Clint Bowyer (14-1), with a very modest 17.9. He only owns two Top 5’s without a win in eight career starts. Jeff Gordon (8-1) paces the field with six career DIS wins but has not reached Victory lane at this prestigious venue since February ’05. Therefore, with the favorites being recognized earlier, albeit some with less than favorite odds, are there any other darkhorses to consider? Of course, and I would start with Kurt Busch (8-1), Matt Kenseth (12-1), Kevin Harvick (13-1), and Ryan Newman (22-1), each of whom is highly regarded for his plate-track prowess. In fact, the driver with the best record during the past three years is Kurt Busch. He entered this year's Daytona 500 with a five-race streak of top-10s; better still, four of these were top-fives and that means he was in contention to win on any given weekend. He hasn't won on this track yet, but with three second-place finishes, he's come close. His willingness to push other drivers across the finish line is actually part of his strength, in fact, because it means he is less likely to get into trouble while trying to make an ill-timed pass. Kenseth, Harvick, and Newman have all actually benefitted recently from Busch’s help, each with a recent Daytona 500 win to his credit. Their timing has proven to just be a little better than that of Busch. Juan Montoya, David Ragan, Elliott Sadler, and Kasey Kahne are also capable plate racers.

You may have noticed that I’ve yet to mention the name of Jimmie Johnson, the four-time defending series champion and winner of the series’ last two events. The truth is that Daytona has been far from his best track with just one win, 59 total laps led, and an average finish of 21.2 in 16 career starts. Sportsbook.com oddsmakers don’t seem to be taking him all that seriously for Saturday, listing him at 10-1 odds, well below his normal standard. In the COT, his average Daytona finish dips to 23.6 and he’s only been out front only five laps in five races. Jeff Gordon’s numbers haven’t been strong either, as he seems to have lost some of the plate track touch that highlighted the early part of his career. In the 11 COT plate races, he has a win, but that is his only top 5 in that span with an average finish of 24.8. Martin Truex has been even worse, with an average finish of 25.0 in those 11 starts and just a single Top 10. Of course, you can’t talk about plate track racing without mentioning the name of Mark Martin, whose disdain for it is well documented. The stats reflect it too. Though qualifying very well (5.9 average start), Martin has been bumped back often, with an average finish of 22.9 in his last eight starts.

I personally have attended this race three times in my near-decade long fandom of NASCAR. I’m telling you that very few sporting events can match the atmosphere like the Daytona summer race. Not only that, but the racing is breathtaking as well. Restrictor plate racing is a sight to see, and winning at Daytona is a coveted feat for any driver. Thus the action on the track is intense and competitive. There are a few things that are important to success at Daytona. Foremost is the ability to draft, while horsepower, and good aerodynamics run a close 2nd and 3rd. Aggressive drivers and rookies tend to be shunned out of the draft by the veterans. If this happens on the race’s last lap, a driver can fall as many as 15 spots in finishing position. The best plate drivers know how and when to make their move. One thing that isn’t all that important at Daytona, or plate tracks in general nowadays, is qualifying. As evidence, McMurray started 13th here in February, and only one of the last seven Daytona winners started in the Top 6. The chance for making up spots quickly is great. However, that said, it is good to at least demonstrate some horsepower in qualifying and practice. The lineup will be set on Friday at 4:10 PM ET.

It should be a colorful, exciting, and patriotic event as always, as the Sprint Cup Series runs its 18th race of the season, reaching the halfway point. The Green Flag is set to drop on Saturday at 7:49 PM ET on Saturday night. As always, the ******* NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are here to prepare you for all of the high speed excitement…

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