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**StarDust Bum** · 07-01-2010, 12:52 AM

Intriguing carryover system in CFL opener

The 2010 CFL season opens on Thursday, Canada Day, with a rematch of the 2009 Grey Cup title game between Montreal and Saskatchewan. The Alouettes are the defending league champs, having survived a tight 28-27 thrilling championship contest, but the host Roughriders are back and hungry after spending the last seven months thinking about what might have been. Interestingly, a nice carryover angle from FoxSheets, along with a pair of strong trends reveal that Saskatchewan has a good shot at payback, playing as 3-point dogs according to Sportsbook.com.

The betting system you’ll want to consider as you analyze Thursday’s game focuses on how well Montreal played down the stretch last season and reads as follows:

Play Against - Favorites (MONTREAL) - first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, team that had a winning record last season. (29-8 since 1996.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 2*)

En route to the Grey Cup title, the Alouettes outscored opponents by 15.7 points per game, and they were easily the league’s best club in both points scored and allowed. But if they win the Grey Cup again in 2010, this could be the last of the Popp/Trestman duo in Montreal. On the surface, there’s little reason to believe the Alouettes won’t be as good as last year with Anthony Calvillo back under center. There is one offensive concern, as Bryan Chiu, the anchor of the line having announced his retirement on the first day of training camp. Head coach Marc Trestman is back for 2010 as well, and knows his team will be the “hunted” all season long, making a repeat a tough proposition.

The Roughriders feel they have unfinished business to attend to in 2010. What’s best is that Saskatchewan has no QB controversy going into the season, music to head coach Ken Miller's ears. Darian Durant (N. Carolina) squashed all doubters last season and looks to continue to improve under the direction of new offensive coordinator Doug Berry. Durant will continue to throw to the 'Canadian Air Force' of receivers Andy Fantuz, Rob Bagg, Chris Getzlaf, and Jason Clermont, who combined for 190 receptions and 2,537 yards last season. There is some concern on defense though after the team lost pass-rushing defensive ends John Chick and Stevie Baggs in the offseason without any replacements made from outside the organization. The defense was ranked just 4th in points allowed last season, two spots worse than the offense, so that unit needed to improve for this team to reach championship level.

Historically, Saskatchewan has been a great bet early in the season:

SASKATCHEWAN is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in the first month of the season since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 26.2, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 1*)

The Roughriders have also been nearly automatic as a short home underdog:

SASKATCHEWAN is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 28.7, OPPONENT 22.3 - (Rating = 2*)

With most power rating type analysis showing that Montreal should be favored by at least 4-5 points, you have to wonder whether or not oddsmakers know that Saskatchewan will be “extra motivated” here.

Kickoff is set for 7:00 PM ET.

Following the Montreal-Saskatchewan contest, Toronto and Calgary will kickoff at 10:00 PM ET to wrap up the holiday offering north of the border.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-01-2010, 12:53 AM

July’s Good and Bad Baseball Pitchers

Firecrackers and the MLB All-Star game signal the month of July. It also signifies the start of the 2nd half of the MLB campaign. The key to each and every team’s fortune lies on the pitching staff. Can they sustain or will they fold like a deck of cards? Stay tuned. What we do know is certain pitchers love hurling this time of the season while others tend to get lit up like a roman candle.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of July. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in July team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each July over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with August’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Burnett, A.J. [9-2]
If there is one pitcher in baseball glad to see the calendar change it is Burnett (6-7, 5.25 ERA). For the month of June he was 0-5, with gargantuan 11.34 ERA. If you caught any of his pitched games, this is a hurler really struggling mentally. Of the 35 hits he allowed last month, 11 of them went over the wall. Burnett and the Yankees hope he turns around this month around quickly.

Cook, Aaron [12-6]
The Colorado pitcher is finding his groove after a rocky start (intentional play on words), lowering his ERA to 4.69. Cook (2-5) pitches to contact and his fastball has had more sink in the last several starts and if the Rockies are going to make run at NL West crown, they will need Aaron to be cookin’.

De La Rosa, Jorge [11-5]
De La Rosa has been out since April 25 with torn tendon band in the middle finger of his throwing hand. He’s at Triple-A Colorado Springs working to get to big club.

Hamels, Cole [12-4]
He’s still only 26-years old, but the lefthander just hasn’t risen to the same level of excellence he achieved during the 2008 postseason. His 54-40 career record shows too many cement-mixer curve balls and change-ups left up in the zone. The Phillies bats have been quieter this season and Hamels (4.08) has to be better than 6-6 this season.

Haren, Dan [12-4]
Throwing for Arizona is not a comfortable position for starting pitcher. As a starter you fill like you have to throw a complete game since they have combustible bullpen. This has caused Haren (7-6, 4.56) to attempt to be too fine and he touched for 19 home runs and .282 batting average compared to career number of .253. Interesting to follow if he can retain July’s previous good fortune.

Johnson, Josh [8-2]
Johnson (8-3, 1.83) hasn’t given up three earned runs in a game since May 8, which covers nine starts. At 6’7, 250-pounds, he’s imposing figure and his mid-to-high 90’s heat jumps late, causing bad swings and misses. With the way the Marlins ace is throwing, he could be in for special month.

Lackey, John [14-3]
Lackey is a Texas native and heats up like the weather when it comes to wins and losses. He’s no longer the hard thrower that can go thru a line-up more than twice without making adjustments on the run. His 9-3 record is mixed with good fortune as his 4.46 ERA is run of the mill. In Lackey’s last seven starts, Boston has averaged 8.1 runs per game.

Lester, Jon [10-1]
The left-hander continues to quietly keep rising in the elite ranks of pitchers in baseball. His 51-19 career mark is among the best since 2006 and this season he been even more impressive with 9-3 record and 2.86 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .205 against him.

Lowe, Derek [10-5]
At 37, Lowe (9-6. 4.53) is no longer the pitcher worms used to fear, with opponents incessantly beating the ball into the ground for outs. The vast majority of outs Lowe still induces are still ground balls, but his command has been a little iffier in 2010, presently heading towards a career high in free passes. If he finds the groove, he and Atlanta should have another strong month.

Oswalt, Roy [10-2]
Oswalt (3.55) is heading towards his first losing season with 5-10 record playing for an inferior Houston club. Trade rumors abound for the 32-year pitcher, who would appreciate a change of scenery to recharge the competitive juices. If a team is interested in Oswalt, it should make a move now based on July figures.

Saunders, Joe [9-3]
Manager Mike Scioscia is known for his great patience in understanding the season is 162 games long and players are going to have ups and downs. Joe Saunders (6-8, 4.88) has been testing Scioscia’s resolve with a rollercoaster campaign. Saunders has been far more effective on the road (3.35 ERA vs. 6.18 at the Big A) and if he straightens out that part of game and pitches inside to RH hitters, he should have typical July.

Vazquez, Javier [10-5]
After a VERY choppy beginning, Vazquez (6-6, 5.16) is becoming the type of hurler GM Brian Cashman was hoping for. Vazquez has 3.78 ERA in last 10 starts and has better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Duke, Zach [2-9]
It’s becoming more a mystery why Duke (3-8, 5.49) stays in the Pittsburgh rotation. Yes, the Pirates are brutal, but do you really need a starter that opposing batters are slugging .322 against? This Duke is a dog. (As in “Here Duke”)

Greinke, Zach [2-8]
Last year’s Cy Young winner has had a rough go of it this season, with a combination of Kansas City bullpen failings and Greinke (3-8, 3.72) trying to do too much. He’s been sharper of late and might improve on this month’s historical record with a little support.

Harden, Rich [4-9]
On the DL with gluteal strain and is scheduled for a few bullpen sessions to start the month.

Parra, Manny [3-7]
Strictly a back of the rotation guy, Parra (2-5, 4.12) was returned to the Milwaukee rotation after they had nowhere else to turn to. His 3.98 ERA as starter isn’t all that bad, however this southpaw is being crushed by lefty hitters, conceding .380 BA.

Wellemeyer, Todd [4-8]
The Giants fifth starter has been on the DL since June 11 and according to team reports is expected to return to club in mid-July.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-01-2010, 12:55 AM

Thursday Daytime Tips

The calendar has officially turned over to July and that means we’re inching closer to the All-Star Break. Before we get to those festivities in Anaheim, we have some baseball to discuss. Thursday has three games on the afternoon docket with one of those teams sitting pretty in terms of making the playoffs.

Blue Jays (40-38, +552) at Indians (27-47, -888) – 12:05 p.m. EDT

If the Blue Jays were in almost any other division, they’d have a realistic shot at first place. Unfortunately for them, they’re sitting eight games back of the Yankees in the American League East. And Toronto is falling behind further as they’re mired in a three-game slide. A big reason for that slump is an offense that is averaging just over two runs per game at the present.

Toronto will look for a strong pitching performance out of Shawn Marcum (7-3, 3.14) to offset its cold bats. Marcum has the goods to turn things around as he’s won two of his last three starts. But he’s also posted a strong 3-1 mark in his seven starts, while the Jays are 5-2 in those outings. Marcum has a 4.12 earned run average, which is well above the 2.41 he has at Rogers Centre. The result of that higher ERA is seeing the ‘over’ go 4-2-1 in those road spots.

The Indians will send Justin Masterson (2-7, 5.21) out to close out this series. Masterson looked like he might be turning the corner by posting back-to-back wins over the White Sox and Red Sox in the middle of June. In his last three starts, he’s gone 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA.

Cleveland might not be a great wager in this spot as they’re 4-5 in nine home day games against right-handed pitching. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, can boast a 7-2 mark when on the road for afternoon showdowns this season. It also doesn’t hurt that Toronto is 6-3 this year when playing AL Central foes away from home.

Mariners (32-44, -1,319) at Yankees (47-29, +55) – 1:05 p.m. EDT

Seattle looked like it might be ready to fall back down with a two-game slid after a six-game win streak. But the M’s might have a little bit of solid footing at the moment after winning two of their last three contests.

The Mariners will try to leave the Big Apple on a high note with Ryan Rowland-Smith (1-7, 6.18) on the mound. It hasn’t been a great year for the Australian hurler. And it really has stunk for Rowland-Smith when pitching away from Safeco Field, evidenced by an 0-5 mark with a 8.10 ERA.

New York will give the starting nod to C.C. Sabathia (9-3, 3.49) on Thursday afternoon. All Sabathia has done is peel off five consecutive victories that he’s lasted at least seven innings in for the Bronx Bombers. And the former Indian is a pleasant 5-0 with a 2.57 ERA in seven starts at Yankee Stadium in 2010.

The Yanks have had good success against lefties in home day matches this year by going 4-2 in the six opportunities. New York has also gone 5-2 against AL West clubs as a home “chalk” this year, covering the run line in each of those contests.

Reds (43-35, +565) at Cubs (34-43, -1,731) – 2:20 p.m. EDT

Cincinnati is finally living up to the hype that experts have doled out upon them over the past few years. Only thing that the Reds are really doing now is running neck and neck with St. Louis for the top spot in this NL Central. Cincy is currently just a ½-game out of first place, but that can change at the drop of a hat.

The Reds are looking for a big boost out of Travis Wood on Thursday, who is making his first start of the season. He was in the running for the fifth starting role in the rotation, but was kept in the minors due to control issues. There is no certainty that his command has improved at Triple-A Louisville, where Wood was 5-6 with a 3.12 ERA in 15 starts. The young lefty also had allowed 23 walks to 97 strikeouts in 98 innings of work.

The Cubbies are content in sending Carlos Silva (8-2, 3.01) out to the mound to open this series. Silva has lost his last three starts for Chicago, but he pitched well enough to win all three of those spots. He gave up no more than three earned runs in any of those games and lasted at least six innings. What killed Silva in those starts was either his batting order not backing him up or the bullpen failing him. He has done well enough at the friendly confines in 2010, evidenced by a 4-2 record and an ERA of 2.98.

The Reds are a solid team to fade when on the road for day games this season. Cincy has gone 3-7 in 10 afternoon fixtures away from Great American Ballpark. Chicago, however, has won all three of its matches during the day at Wrigley Field versus left-handed pitching.

**Kaptain** · 07-01-2010, 02:42 PM

GET EM BUM......as always..........thanks and best to ya

**StarDust Bum** · 07-01-2010, 07:00 PM

There's the Kapt...............

Evening MLB Games:

Thursday, July 1Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oakland - 7:05 PM ET Oakland -137 500
Baltimore - Over 8.5 500 *****

NY Mets - 7:05 PM ET Washington +122 500 *****
Washington - Over 8 500 *****

Philadelphia - 7:05 PM ET Philadelphia -191 500
Pittsburgh - Under 9 500 *****

Tampa Bay - 8:10 PM ET Tampa Bay +108 500
Minnesota - Over 8.5 500 *****

Milwaukee - 8:15 PM ET St. Louis -125 500
St. Louis - Under 9.5 500

San Francisco - 8:40 PM ET San Francisco +131 500 *****
Colorado - Under 9.5 500 *****

Texas - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels -121 500
LA Angels - Under 8 500

Houston - 10:05 PM ET San Diego -235 500 *****
San Diego - Under 7.5 500 *****

Thursday's Early Game Results:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
07/01/10 3-2-0 60.00% +475 Detail
Totals 3-2-0 60.00% +475

Good Luck This Evening !

**StarDust Bum** · 07-01-2010, 07:26 PM

Four Thursday MLB games boast powerful trends

One of the things I make sure to do every morning throughout the baseball season is to dig through the FoxSheets Power Searches for the best available betting angles for that day’s action. Over the last couple of days I shared some of the best systems that I found intriguing. For Thursday, I’m concentrating on some interesting trends that are sure to affect four different nighttime games. Let’s take a look at those. For more key betting info, visit the GAME MATCHUPS page and the FREE FoxSheet, Tampa Bay at Minnesota. Lines courtesy of YouWager.com.

(955) NY METS (SANTANA) at (956) WASHINGTON (HERNANDEZ) - 7:05 PM
Line: Mets -130, Total: 8 OV-105
The first game of interest finds the Mets coming back from Puerto Rico to visit Washington. The pitching matchup is a good one, with Johan Santana squaring off against Livan Hernandez. There are two interesting trends that could produce a correlated parlay for the game:

NY METS are 17-4 UNDER (+12.5 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. The average score was NY METS 3.1, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*)

JOHAN SANTANA is 73-13 (+48 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. The average score was SANTANA 5.1, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 3*)

The bottom line is that Santana is usually at his best against the league’s lesser teams, while at the same time, the Mets as a club don’t typically hit well when matched against weaker hitting foes. By the looks of these angles, this game has all the makings of a 4-3 Mets win.

(959) SAN FRANCISCO (BUMGARNER) at (960) COLORADO (COOK) 8:40 PM
Line: Colorado -140, Total: 9.5 -110

COLORADO is 14-1 UNDER (+13 Units) after allowing 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 4.4, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 4*)

Colorado comes off a huge series win at San Diego, where it took two of three games. Unfortunately, Game 3 was the stinker, with the Padres whipping the Rockies 13-3. It sets up for a nice angle on an UNDER the total for today’s series opener with San Francisco though. After a big game in which the pitching staff was rocked, Colorado has come back well, holding opponents to just 3.6 runs per game. When you consider that many of these contests are at Coors Field, the allowance is even more impressive. Of course, it shouldn’t be all that shocking, as the Rockies’ bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this season with a WHIP of 1.276. It’s not often they are shelled in back-to-back games.

(967) OAKLAND (CAHILL) at (968) BALTIMORE (ARRIETA) 7:05 PM
Line: Oakland -140, Total: 8.5 OV-105
The A’s Trevor Cahill is quietly putting together one of the better seasons in the American League this year among starting pitchers. His WHIP is just 1.080 and his team is 9-3 in games he starts in 2010. His success leads to another side/total parlay opportunity:

BALTIMORE is 1-16 (-14.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 2.8, OPPONENT 6.5 - (Rating = 2*)

TREVOR CAHILL is 18-5 UNDER (+12.2 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CAHILL 4, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 2*)

In essence, Baltimore can’t hit good pitchers and Oakland’s offense typically isn’t good enough to produce OVER’s in such situations. Coming off Wednesday’s 9-6 win by the Orioles, expect a more focused pitching effort by the A’s.

(969) TAMPA BAY (NIEMANN) at (970) MINNESOTA (PAVANO) 8:10 PM
Line: Minnesota -115, Total: 8.5 OV-105
The Rays and Twins start a 4-game set from Minnesota on Thursday and the series opener is today’s FREE FoxSheet. On it you’ll find several strong trends, among them…

JEFF NIEMANN is 12-0 (+12 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NIEMANN 7.8, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 2*)

JOE MADDON is 13-41 (-27.5 Units) against the money line in road games in July games as the manager of TAMPA BAY. The average score was MADDON 3.4, OPPONENT 6.1 - (Rating = 3*)

Most teams that beat Niemann do so by hitting the long ball. The Twins have hit just 22 in their first 39 games at Target Field. However, this game actually produces a very strong conflicting trend as well, as the Rays have struggled horribly on the road in July under Joe Maddon. Perhaps you’re as surprised as me to hear that. With the Twins one of the better home teams in baseball, and the Rays one of the best to date on the road, it figures to be a good game either way. You’re on your own for this one though! Hopefully you’ll find something else that servers as your golden nugget on today’s FREE FoxSheet.

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The Bum's Thursday's Best Bets MLB-WNBA-CFL !

The Bum's Thursday's Best Bets MLB-WNBA-CFL !

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