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**StarDust Bum** · 06-30-2010, 12:20 AM

Wednesday Afternoon Tips

The final day of June provides bettors with plenty of afternoon action, including four games involving both teams in playoff contention. The NL West showcases its top four teams playing getaway day games, including the Giants hosting the Dodgers and the Padres entertaining the Rockies. We'll start first in Cincinnati with Dusty Baker's red-hot club trying to close out the Phillies.

Phillies at Reds - 12:35 PM EST

Cincinnati has slowly reclaimed the offense that it lost it Seattle, as the Reds are averaging 5.5 runs/game in a 6-1 run that has put them atop the NL Central. The Phillies' offense has been resurrected after a cold streak at the end of May, but Philadelphia needs to leap-frog a pair of teams in the NL East.

Roy Halladay's (9-6, 2.29 ERA) record may not look as sterling as you would expect with his ERA, as the Phillies' ace is coming off seven innings of scoreless baseball against his ex-mates in a 7-0 shutout of Toronto. Halladay has actually put up better numbers on the road, compiling a 5-2 mark on the highway to go along with an ERA of 2.09. The last time the righty faced the Reds was in 2008 as a member of the Jays, as Toronto tagged Halladay for five runs in a 6-5 road win.

The Reds counter with Aaron Harang (6-7, 5.07 ERA), who has been the model of inconsistency this season. Harang, who finished 16-6 in 2007, has won just 18 games over the last three seasons combined. The tall right-hander is coming off consecutive quality starts, even though it came against Cleveland and Seattle. Harang has actually pitched well against this Philadelphia club, beating the Phillies twice last season by allowing four earned wins in the two victories.

Cincinnati is 7-3 the last ten home day games, while cashing the 'under' in four straight day games overall. The Phillies have lost five of their previous seven road games under the sun, which includes a 1-1 mark over the weekend against the Jays in mythical away games at Citizens Bank Park.

Tigers at Twins - 1:10 PM EST

Minnesota is going backwards quickly inside the AL Central after dropping the series opener to Detroit on Monday night, 7-5. That marks the sixth loss in seven games for Ron Gardenhire's team, who is in a three-horse race with the Tigers and White Sox in the division. Kevin Slowey looks to stop the bleeding for Minnesota, but he's going to have to fix his woes if the Twins want to win.

Slowey (7-5, 4.79 ERA) has allowed 17 earned runs in his last three starts, which totals to an ERA of 12.41. Somehow, the Twins managed to win one of those games, rallying from five runs down in the ninth inning to shock the Phillies, 13-10 in extra innings. Slowey has always been a great control pitcher, issuing only 17 walks in 14 starts. The good news is that's not his problem; instead, Slowey is getting knocked all over the diamond by allowing at least six hits in eight of his last ten outings.

Rookie Andrew Oliver (0-1, 3.00 ERA) makes his second start, after falling in his debut at Atlanta, 3-1. The ex-Oklahoma State southpaw showed promise by delivering six innings of five-hit ball, but the Tigers' bats did little against Kris Medlen and the Braves. Oliver faces a Minnesota club that has been ruthless at home against left-handed starters, compiling a 7-2 mark at Target Field versus southpaws.

The Twins own a perfect 4-0 day record at home against left-handers, but are just 2-5 at Target Field in the third game of a series. The Tigers are 1-4 the last five matinees on the road, after starting the season 6-3 in this situation.

Rockies at Padres - 3:35 PM EST

Colorado drew first blood with a 10-6 victory on Monday night as Ubaldo Jimenez captured his league-leading 14th win of the season. The Rockies are now 5-2 against the leaders of the NL West, as the Padres try to hold onto the lead inside the division.

A pair of left-handers takes the mound at Petco Park as Jeff Francis and Clayton Richard square off. Francis (2-2, 3.53 ERA) has been a welcome return to the pitching staff after missing the entire 2009 season due to left shoulder surgery. The British Columbia native is coming off three straight quality starts, despite receiving credit for only one win (Colorado won all three games). Francis has been involved in five one-run games out of eight starts, while six outings have finished 'under' the total.

Richard (5-4, 2.75 ERA) won for the first time in four starts in a 3-0 victory at Florida last Friday. The ex-White Sox lefty has been the victim of poor run support, with the Padres providing less than three runs an outing for Richard. The Padres are 1-3 in Richard's last four home starts, as San Diego fell to a pair of AL cellar-dwellers in the Orioles and Mariners his last two outings. The Rockies have beaten Richard twice this season, including a 6-5 extra-innings win back in early May at Petco Park.

Colorado has won five of its past six matinee contests on the road, while seven of its last 11 day games on the highway have finished 'under' the total. The Padres have claimed four of six home games under the sun, but all four wins have come against below .500 teams.

Dodgers at Giants - 3:45 PM EST

San Francisco plays its final home game prior to the All-Star Break, as the Giants hit the road for a three-city, 11-game trip following Wednesday's matchup with Los Angeles. The Dodgers bounced back from Sunday's meltdown to the Yankees by knocking off the Giants in the series opener, 4-2.

Jonathan Sanchez (6-5, 3.03 ERA) hasn't been particularly sharp recently, allowing five earned runs and nine walks in his last two starts (8 IP). The Giants have won five of the southpaw's last six starts, despite only two of those outings being quality ones. The Dodgers beat Sanchez in four of five games last season, as the lefty didn't last past the fifth inning in any start.

Veteran Vicente Padilla (1-2, 5.82 ERA) is winless since coming off the disabled list on June 19, falling to the Red Sox and Yankees in one-run setbacks. Padilla is coming off a strong outing against New York, giving up six hits and two earned runs in seven innings, but the Dodgers provided little run support in a 2-1 defeat. Padilla limited the Giants four hits and three earned runs in seven innings of a 10-8 victory at Chavez Ravine back in April.

The Dodgers are 9-4 the last 13 meetings with the Giants, including the series victory in Los Angeles in April. San Francisco is 6-2 the previous eight day games at AT&T Park, while going 6-1 the last seven Game 3's at home.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-30-2010, 05:47 PM

Evening Games:

Oakland - 7:05 PM ET Oakland -114 500
Baltimore - Under 9 500 *****

Toronto - 7:05 PM ET Toronto -122 500
Cleveland - Over 10 500 *****

Seattle - 7:05 PM ET Seattle +139 500 *****
NY Yankees - Over 8 500

Tampa Bay - 7:10 PM ET Boston +100 500
Boston - Over 9.5 500

Washington - 7:10 PM ET Washington +159 500 *****
Atlanta - Under 9 500

NY Mets - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -110 500
Florida - Under 9.5 500*****

Chi. White Sox - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox +111 500 *****
Kansas City - Under 7 500

Texas - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels -115 500
LA Angels - Over 10 500 *****

Good Luck !

**StarDust Bum** · 06-30-2010, 06:09 PM

Hot pitchers mean hot betting system in K.C.

In yesterday’s feature baseball game, we spotted a run line system that we coined a “sure-fire” winner, and Cliff Lee and the Mariners delivered with a 7-4 win in New York. For tonight, there’s another very strong run line system AND trend that figure to impact the game between the White Sox and Royals from Kansas City. The teams’ aces will collide as Jake Peavy matches up with Zack Greinke, with the latter installed as a -115 money line favorite according to Sports.com, with a run line of -1.5, +170.

Chicago right-hander Jake Peavy is starting to show the stuff that earned him a Cy Young Award. So is Kansas City's Zack Greinke. Peavy will look to extend his 21-inning scoreless stretch Wednesday when the visiting White Sox try to snap Greinke's recent stretch of solid outings.

The 2007 NL Cy Young winner while with San Diego, Peavy got off to a poor start in his first full season with the White Sox, going 4-5 with a 5.90 ERA in 12 starts.

Peavy (7-5, 4.71 ERA), though, thrived against NL opponents in his last three starts, winning each outing while posting a 0.78 ERA. He struck out a season high-tying nine and gave up three hits in Friday's 6-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs. The right-hander is now two innings of shy of matching his career-best scoreless stretch.

Peavy, 4-1 with a 3.77 lifetime ERA versus the Royals, will look to win his fifth straight start against Kansas City (33-45).

Greinke (3-8, 3.72) is 5-10 with a 4.46 ERA in 19 starts against Chicago. He'll make his first start versus Chicago this season after going 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in five starts against them during his 2009 Cy Young season.

Greinke was far from last season's form in his first 13 starts - going 1-8 with a 4.05 ERA. The right-hander, however, is 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in his last three outings, striking out 23 while walking just two during that stretch.

The fact that both pitchers have been at their best of late leads to a highly profitable run line system from FoxSheets, backing Greinke and the Royals:

Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (KANSAS CITY) - with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. (31-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.8%, +21.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (30-12 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.6, money line price: +105
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 23 (54.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1, +0.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-7, +9.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (59-52, +2.2 units).

If that weren’t enough, there is also a noteworthy trend to consider based upon Kansas City’s recent bullpen success.

KANSAS CITY is 10-0 against the run line (+12.3 Units) in home games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.7, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 4*)

Visit the GAME MATCHUP page for more key betting info on this contest.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-30-2010, 06:11 PM

Wednesday Evening Tips

Wednesday’s pro baseball card features eight primetime battles, which is highlighted by an American League West matchup between the Rangers and Angels from Los Angeles. Let’s take a closer look at that divisional affair, plus hit on some other quick diamond notes as well.
Texas (46-30, +1365) at L.A. Angels (43-35, +753)

Prior to the start of the 2010 season, oddsmakers at SPORTSBETTING.com listed Seattle as a 7/4 choice (Bet $100 to win $175) to win the AL West. Texas (2/1), Los Angeles (11/5) and Oakland (13/5) weren’t far behind the Mariners, which told you that this was easily the tightest group to gauge.

With almost three months and nearly half the season in the books, the Rangers sit atop the group and the three-time defending division champs, the Angels, are just 3 ½ games behind them. It’s still too a little too early to write off either the Athletics (38-40) or Mariners (32-44) just yet but the pen is certainly out.

One major reason why Texas and Los Angeles have emerged from the pack is based upon their success during interleague play. The Rangers went 14-4 versus the NL, while the Angels posted a solid 11-7 mark.

Another key factor in their rise has been their stellar play in the month of June. The Rangers’ 20-6 record in the third month of the season has helped them post their best record in team history through 75 games.

The Angels haven’t been too shabby in June either, going 18-8, which includes a 6-5 win over Texas last night. Joel Pineiro pitched six strong innings and the bullpen did enough to stifle the explosive Rangers’ offense. Vladimir Guerrero made his return to L.A. after spending six seasons with the Angels and he didn’t disappoint last night, going 3-for-4 with a homerun and three RBIs in the loss. Also, Josh Hamilton extended his hitting streak to 22 games with a single in the third inning.

The Rangers have a good chance of bouncing back tonight, since the Angels are tossing Scott Kazmir (7-6, 5.42 ERA) to the mound. Kazmir has won four of his last five starts but all of those victories came on the road. His main issue this season has been at home (2-3, 6.84 ERA), which is where he’s lost three straight starts, including a lopsided decision (6-10) to the Dodgers last Thursday. Total players should make a note that the lefthander has watched all five of his appearances at home go ‘over’ the number, easily too. The Rangers are averaging 5.2 runs per game against southpaws this season, which has helped produce a 13-10 ledger.

Unlike a lot of other teams, the Rangers don’t have a fifth starter on their roster at this time. Tonight, they’re turning to Omar Beltre, who was called up Oklahoma City (AAA) this week. The right-hander has helped the minor league affiliate in all areas of the bullpen but he’s gone 0-2 with a 1.25 ERA in five starts.

Despite the poor outings from Anaheim for Kazmir recently, the books still made the Angels a $1.20 favorite over the Rangers. Texas has definitely turned some heads this season but is the team as good as its record? Prior to this three-game set, the Rangers played eight series and only one of them was against a winning club, Tampa Bay, which they won (2-1). They also beat the White Sox (2-1) in a series but that was well before their recent hot streak. The other six opponents during this streak include the Mariners (32-44), Brewers (35-42), Marlins (37-40), Pirates (26-51) and not one but two intrastate series against the Astros (30-48).

Puerto Rico Sweep

The Marlins beat the Mets 10-3 on Monday and 7-6 last night, which leads us to the potential sweep game tonight. Including these losses, New York has now dropped four in a row outside of Flushing and is just 15-22 on the road this season, compared to a 28-12 mark at home. The two straight victories for Florida come as a bit of a surprise, considering the club just dropped four in a row. Completing the sweep will be tough for the Fish tonight, since the Mets will have Mike Pelfrey (10-2, 2.71 ERA) on the hill. He doesn’t have a great career mark (1-6, 5.63 ERA) against the Marlins but New York has won 14 of his 17 starts this season. The Marlins have been installed as short underdogs (+105) in this spot and they’ll lean to Chris Volstad (4-7, 4.40 ERA), who’s watched his team go 1-8 in his last nine appearances.

Pitchers Duel

If you’re looking for the best pitching matchup on Wednesday, then turn your attention to tonight’s encounter between the White Sox and Royals from Kauffman Stadium. Even though their numbers this season haven’t been stellar, Chicago’s Jake Peavy (7-5, 4.71 ERA) and Kansas City’s Zach Greinke (3-8, 3.72 ERA) are still considered gamers.

Peavy has ripped off three straight albeit against the National League, but he does bring a 21-inning scoreless streak into tonight’s game and he’s notched 21 strikeouts over his last 23 innings. Greinke certainly hasn’t been in the Cy Young form that we witnessed last season, yet his start last Friday was pretty close. He gave up seven hits over eight innings during the Royals’ 4-2 win over St. Louis. Including that performance, the right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in his last three outings, and he’s racked up 23 K’s during that span as well.

The total for tonight is listed at 7 ½ runs, which is the lowest on the board in the AL. The ‘under’ has gone 5-2-1 in the first eight encounters between the pair this season, which includes the White Sox’s 3-1 victory last night.

Broken Jays

The AL East is arguably the toughest division in baseball and some pundits would say that the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are the three best teams. If that’s the case, then Toronto should be getting a pat on the back for its 40-38 start. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, talent has caught up to the club and it appears that they don’t have the horse to compete with the above trio on a weekly basis. Toronto has gone 9-17 in June and it’s lost seven of nine, including two straight to the second-worst team in the AL, Cleveland. The offense that was belting homeruns out of the park daily has been stifled to 27 runs and a .224 batting average over the last nine games.

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