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**StarDust Bum** · 06-29-2010, 06:29 PM

Seattle run line system looks like sure fire winner

According to bookmakers we’ve spoken with on the subject, only a sparse percentage of baseball bettors dabble in run line wagering. Money line and totals wagering dominates the baseball scene. Still, you have to wonder, if bettors were aware of powerful run line systems like the one affecting the Mariners-Yankees game for Tuesday, would this pattern change? Let’s take a look at the key angle favoring Seattle from FoxSheets and how it could impact the contest. The M’s are +1.5, -150 dogs according to Sportsbook.com.

Here is the key betting system:

Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (SEATTLE) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. (43-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.5%, +36 units. Rating = 5*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (34-13 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -176
The average score in these games was: Team 4.3, Opponent 3.1 (Average run differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 34 (72.3% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (6-0, +6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-1, +11.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (100-37, +37.1 units).

Typically I don’t endorse strategies that indicate to back a team with a bad bullpen, but the history of success on this system is just too much to pass up. With a 6-0 mark already in 2010, ******* has uncovered an angle that has won 43 of its last 47 games, nearly automatic. As you can see as well, the straight up record of this underdog team is 34-13 in that same time span, with our hot starting pitcher holding the opponent to just 3.1 runs on average.

Of course the pitcher of note in our system is Mariners’ left-hander Cliff Lee, one of baseball's best (6-3, 2.39). According to source, Lee may be on the trading block again with the Mariners well out of contention. The 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner would be a prize acquisition as he's turning in a spectacular season with 76 strikeouts and four walks.

"I feel good," said Lee, who hasn't issued a walk in 37 innings. "I like where I'm at."

Lee pitched a six-hitter in a 1-0 win over Cincinnati on June 18, and followed that up by scattering nine hits and striking out nine Wednesday in an 8-1 victory over the Chicago Cubs.

The left-hander is facing New York for the first time since going 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in two starts for Philadelphia in last year's World Series. Including one outing in the postseason, he's 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA in his last four games in the Bronx - two at the new Yankee Stadium.

In what figures to be a thrilling pitching matchup, Lee will be opposed by Phil Hughes, who has enjoyed some extra rest before he tries to win his sixth straight start. New York (47-28) opted not to pitch the 24-year-old Hughes (10-1, 3.17 ERA) during its six-game road trip last week in order to limit his innings. He's one behind Tampa Bay's David Price for the AL lead in victories.

"I don't think I've pitched well enough to really have that record," Hughes told MLB.com. "I've pitched some good games, but the offense has been great. Some of them, I've been lucky and have tried to just keep us in the game. Yeah, I'm surprised, but it's great. Every time I take the hill, I want to win."

Hughes is 5-0 with a 3.86 ERA since his last loss, and 6-0 with a 3.71 ERA in seven outings at home heading into his second career start against Seattle (31-44).

With the money line set at Yankees -155 according to Sportsbook.com, this will be just the second time this season that Lee has pitched as an underdog. He lost a 2-1 decision at Tampa Bay as a +135 dog on May 16th. The ******* Power Line indicates the line should be Yankees -145.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-29-2010, 06:32 PM

Tuesday Tips

The Tuesday baseball card is loaded with plenty of important matchups, including the top three teams in the AL East facing some of the league's top pitchers. Over in the National League, the Phillies and Reds continue their series at the Great American Ballpark. We'll start in the Bronx with the Yankees taking on a pitcher that could be donning pinstripes in the future.

Mariners at Yankees - 7:05 PM EST

The Bombers return home from a successful road trip that saw the defending champs win four of the final five games against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. New York was able to rally from a four-run deficit in the ninth inning of Sunday's 8-6 triumph at Los Angeles, while Seattle comes to town losers of two straight.

Cliff Lee (6-3, 2.39 ERA) has delivered consecutive complete games in home victories over the Reds and Cubs, allowing just one earned run. The former Cy Young Award winner has been the subject of rumors to be traded prior to the All-Star Break, perhaps to one of the Big Apple teams. Lee is certainly comfortable pitching at Yankee Stadium, with his teams (Phillies and Indians) winning four straight over the Yanks in the Bronx.

The Yankees' hurler with the best numbers is not CC Sabathia or Andy Pettitte. Instead, it's right-hander Philip Hughes (10-1, 3.17), who hasn't lost since May 22. Hughes received extra rest in between starts to keep fresh during the season, as he last started in a June 19 win over the Mets. The Yankees are a perfect 7-0 in Hughes' seven home starts, while outscoring opponents by an average of five runs/game.

This is the first meeting between these two clubs this season, as the Yankees grabbed six of ten matchups. New York has owned Seattle in the Bronx, going 9-1 the last ten meetings at home.

Rays at Red Sox - 7:10 PM EST

Two teams going in opposite directions hook up at Fenway Park as the road team has dominated this series in 2010. The Rays pulled off a four-game sweep in Boston back in April, but the Sox picked up a measure of revenge with a three-game broom job at Tropicana Field in May. Tampa Bay is coming off a disappointing home series loss to Arizona in which the Rays knocked out only seven hits in three games.

The Rays look to rediscover their offense against John Lackey (8-3, 4.69 ERA), who has been nearly unbeatable at home (6-1). Lackey is coming off an 8-6 loss at Colorado, allowing 10 hits and five earned runs in 6.2 innings, his fourth road defeat in five starts. The lone away victory in this stretch came at Tampa Bay in late May, limiting the Rays to two runs in 6.1 innings of an 11-3 blowout.

James Shields (6-7, 4.55 ERA) has not seen the win column since beating the Yankees on May 20, a span of seven starts. Not much has gone right for Shields when he takes the mound at Fenway, as the Rays are 1-4 in his last five starts in Boston. The only win came in Tampa Bay's April sweep, despite Shields allowing nine hits and four runs in 6.2 innings of a 6-5 victory.

The Rays' offense has tallied 17 runs in the last seven games (2-5), while cashing the 'under' five times. The Red Sox are 12-2 the previous 14 home contests, as the 'under' is on a 5-2 run the last seven in this span.

Phillies at Reds - 7:10 PM EST

Philadelphia and Cincinnati play the second of a three-game set in southern Ohio as both teams look to make up ground in their respective divisions. The Phillies send out veteran Joe Blanton, who has pitched better over his last two starts.

Blanton (3-5, 6.53 ERA) struggled to find consistency this season, but has been a reliable option in home victories over the Twins and Indians by allowing six earned runs. That is a stark contrast from the nine runs and 13 hits given up at Boston in a 10-2 thrashing. Blanton's road numbers are terrible, as the ex-Athletics righty owns a road ERA of 9.27 to go along with a 1-3 mark.

Rookie Mike Leake (5-1, 2.92 ERA) bounced back from two subpar outings in a quality start at Oakland. The former Arizona State star scattered five hits and one earned run in six innings of an extra-innings win over the A's, improving Cincinnati's record to 9-5 in Leake's starts this season. Leake had pitched fantastic at home until allowing 10 earned runs in 10.1 against the Giants and Dodgers his last two times at the Great American Ballpark. The 'under' is a solid 6-2 in Leake's eight home outings this season.

The Phillies own a 2-8 mark the last 10 road games against National League opponents, while hitting the 'under' seven times. The Reds are a strong 8-1 the last nine home contests as a favorite of $1.40 or less.

Tigers at Twins - 8:10 PM EST

As things heat up in the AL Central, Detroit and Minnesota need to make every game count to avoid a do-or-die contest in October for the right to play in the postseason. The two teams are separated by a ½ game entering Monday action, as the two starting pitchers are headed in different directions.

Nick Blackburn (6-5, 6.10 ERA) hasn't won since May 27 against the Yankees, while the righty has allowed five earned runs or more in four of his last five starts. Luckily for Blackburn, he is pitching at Target Field in which he owns a 4-0 mark and ERA of 3.19. After giving up six runs in a 9-0 blowout loss at Detroit last May, Blackburn has yielded only five runs in his last three starts against the Tigers, all victories.

The Tigers counter with Armando Galarraga (3-1, 3.68 ERA), who has turned into an automatic victory when he takes the mound. Detroit is 6-1 in his seven starts, while the Tigers have outscored the opposition by two runs/game in his outings. Galarraga has delivered only one quality start in his last four trips to the hill since his near perfect game on June 2, but the Tigers have won each time.

Detroit has lost six straight road series, while going 6-12 in this span on the highway. With the lack of offense recently, Minnesota has cashed the 'under' in six of its previous eight contests.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-29-2010, 06:33 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

Rangers at Angels – The Rangers are 0-6 since September 29, 2009 when Scott Feldman starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $695 when playing against. The Angels are 7-0 since September 18, 2009 as a favorite after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $700.

Nationals at Braves – The Braves are 9-0 since April 10, 2009 when Derek Lowe starts as a home favorite after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $900. The Braves are 9-0 since September 15, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $900. The Braves are 8-0 since May 01, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800.

Astros at Brewers – The Astros are 0-9 since April 19, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-4 since June 11, 2009 when Yovani Gallardo starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $595 when playing against.

Diamondbacks at Cardinals – The Cardinals are 7-0 since April 12, 2010 when Adam Wainwright starts at home for a net profit of $700. The Cardinals are 0-6 since May 19, 2010 after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $835 when playing against.

Pirates at Cubs – The Pirates are 6-0 since September 28, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $930. The Cubs are 0-6 since September 16, 2009 as a home favorite when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1020 when playing against.

Dodgers at Giants – The Dodgers are 6-0 since May 06, 2010 when John Ely starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $650. The Giants are 0-5 since August 09, 2009 when Matt Cain starts vs a team that lost their starters last two starts for a net profit of $650 when playing against.

Blue Jays at Indians – The Blue Jays are 0-7 since May 23, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $750 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 7-0 since August 14, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $730. The Indians are 0-7 since September 03, 2009 when Fausto Carmona starts as a dog after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Athletics at Orioles – The Athletics are 0-8 since May 30, 2010 when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $828 when playing against. The Athletics are 0-8 since June 10, 2009 when Dallas Braden starts in June for a net profit of $880 when playing against. The Orioles are 8-0 since June 18, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $835.

Rockies at Padres – The Rockies are 0-8 since September 12, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $805 when playing against. The Rockies are 4-0 since June 04, 2009 when Jason Hammel starts on the road in June for a net profit of $525

Rays at Red Sox – The Rays are 0-9 since June 07, 2009 on the road vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Rays are 0-6 since April 23, 2009 when James Shields starts after giving up 2 or more home runs at home for a net profit of $905 when playing against. The Red Sox are 6-0 since April 24, 2010 when John Lackey starts at home for a net profit of $600

Phillies at Reds – The Phillies are 0-5 since August 01, 2009 when Joe Blanton starts when he is off a start in which he needed fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter for a net profit of $636 when playing against.

White Sox at Royals – The White Sox are 0-7 since May 27, 2009 when Gavin Floyd starts on the road after more strike outs than hits allowed at home for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Royals are 0-11 since May 13, 2009 when Brian Bannister starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

Tigers at Twins – The Tigers are 8-0 since June 19, 2009 when Armando Galarraga starts in June for a net profit of $830. The Twins are 6-0 since July 10, 2009 when Nick Blackburn starts at home after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $615.

Mariners at Yankees – The Mariners are 0-8 since May 16, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $810 when playing against. The Yankees are 11-0 since April 21, 2009 as a favorite after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1100.

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