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**StarDust Bum** · 06-24-2010, 01:10 AM

Early Thursday Tips

There is no shortage of baseball for bettors to get down on this Thursday with a loaded afternoon schedule fill with interleague tilts. It all kicks off in St. Pete with a battle between serious playoff contenders.

Padres (41-29, +1,465) at Rays (41-28, +100) – 12:10 p.m. EDT

The Rays roared out of the gate like lions to have the best record in baseball. Now Tampa Bay is playing like lambs as they sit behind the Yankees in the American League East. Those things tend to happen when you drop 10 of your last 17 matches.

Matt Garza (7-5, 4.16) will be looking to for a bit of redemption when he takes the mound on Thursday afternoon. He was unceremoniously ousted in 1.1 innings of work on the road against the Marlins last Friday. But not before Garza was torched for seven earned runs in a 7-4 setback. The Fresno State product has been a reliable ‘over’ play recently as high scores have come in eight of his last 11 starts.

San Diego will send Wade LeBlanc (4-4, 2.88) out to start the series finale. Gamblers have enjoyed backing the Padres recently as they’ve won his last three starts. In those starts, LeBlanc has pitched 19.2 innings and gave up just two earned runs. Of course, two of those starts came against the Orioles and Mariners – two of the worst teams in baseball.

The Pads have gone 5-4 in the nine Game 3s they’ve played on the road in 2010. Not a great number, but you can play for a small scoring affair as the ‘under’ is 5-3-1 in those tilts.

One positive for Tampa Bay to win here is that they’ve won three of its four games at home against southpaw pitching.

Braves (42-29, +1,003) at White Sox (34-32, -34) – 2:05 p.m. EDT

The Braves might own the top spot in the Senior Circuit right now, but they’re doing it spite of play on the road. Atlanta has gone 18-22 for the year, but they have won 10 of its last 18 tests away from Turner Field. But they did lose the opener of this series.

Atlanta trots Derek Lowe (9-5, 4.77) out to the mound for the final game of this series. Lowe has been fantastic for the Bravos during June, going 2-1 with a 4.64 earned run average. Plus, the Braves have won three of his last four road starts.

Gavin Floyd (2-7, 5.20) will be get the ball for the White Sox. It hasn’t been the greatest of years for Floyd, but things are looking up for him. He’s lasted eight innings in each of his last two starts, yielding just one earned run in both appearances. And one of those outings had him matching Nationals’ wunderkind Stephen Strasburg pitch for pitch. Chicago hasn’t had too much luck with Floyd on the mound at home as of late, going 1-3 in his last four matches at U.S. Cellular Field.

The White Sox have gone 6-2 in daytime home games against right-handed pitchers. Atlanta is 4-3 against righties in road matches in the afternoon.

Twins (39-29, +352) at Brewers (30-39, -859) – 2:10 p.m. EDT

The Brew Crew could be onto starting a nice little run after winning two straight contests. As good as they might feel right now, Milwaukee still has three teams ahead of them in the NL Central.

Milwaukee will send out is staff ace Yovani Gallardo (6-3, 2.59) for the final game of this three-game set. Gallardo has pitched well in his last two starts, but the Brewers still wound up dropping both of those starts. In his last outing on June 19, he allowed one earned run on four hits in six innings of work. The problem was their bullpen coughed up seven runs to lose 8-7 on the road to the Rockies.

Nick Blackburn (6-4, 5.80) will be aiming to bounce back after a lousy outing in Philly for the Twins on Thursday. That’s because Blackburn surrendered eight earned runs and two homers in less than two innings of work as Minnesota fell 9-5 on the road to the Phillies. The Twins’ young hurler has an 11.57 ERA in his only start against the Brewers back in 2008.

Minnesota has gone 4-7 in road series finales this seasons with the ‘under’ going 6-5. The Brewers are just 4-6 in the final game of series at Miller Park as the ‘over’ went 7-2-1 in those contests.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-24-2010, 11:42 AM

Thursday's Updated Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
06/23/10 16-12-0 57.14% +1495 Detail
06/22/10 19-11-0 63.33% +4020 Detail
06/21/10 4-2-0 66.67% +750 Detail
06/20/10 14-15-0 48.28% -550 Detail
06/19/10 14-15-0 48.28% -705 Detail
06/18/10 17-12-0 58.62% +2570 Detail
06/17/10 10-12-0 45.45% -565 Detail
06/16/10 12-15-2 44.44% -2865 Detail
06/15/10 15-15-0 50.00% -1090 Detail
06/14/10 4-4-0 50.00% -325 Detail
06/13/10 14-16-0 46.67% -790 Detail
06/12/10 15-14-0 51.72% +25 Detail
06/11/10 14-14-1 50.00% -80 Detail
06/10/10 11-14-1 44.00% -2525 Detail
06/09/10 12-13-1 48.00% -1375 Detail
06/08/10 15-13-2 53.57% +405 Detail
06/07/10 8-8-0 50.00% +105 Detail
06/06/10 14-14-2 50.00% -440 Detail
06/05/10 19-11-0 63.33% +3990 Detail
06/04/10 13-16-1 44.83% -1330 Detail
06/03/10 9-8-1 52.94% +535 Detail
06/02/10 16-12-0 57.14% +1575 Detail
06/01/10 15-14-1 51.72% +335 Detail
Totals 300-280-12 51.72% +3165

**StarDust Bum** · 06-24-2010, 12:35 PM

Yesterday's Best Bets Results:
Loser O's by 1/2, Tigers-Mets go Under........

Placed Description Win / Loss Balance

06/23/2010 by ONLINE at 03:08 PM
[#78465681] PARLAY (10 TEAMS) (Risking: 5.00 - To Win: 4,765.07)

06/23/2010 - 05:10 PM MLB [951] TOTAL o7½ 2.00 (SFO GIANTS vrs HOU ASTROS)
( B ZITO-L / B MYERS -R )
Score: SFO GIANTS(3) - HOU ASTROS(6) PEND

06/23/2010 - 04:10 PM MLB [958] BAL O`S +1½ 1.63
( R NOLASCO-R / B MATUSZ-L )
Score: FLA MARLINS(7) - BAL O`S(5) PEND

06/23/2010 - 04:10 PM MLB [959] CLE INDIANS +1½ 1.80
( WESTBROOK-R / K KENDRICK-R )
Score: CLE INDIANS(6) - PHI PHILLIES(7) PEND

06/23/2010 - 04:15 PM MLB [963] TOTAL o8½ 1.95 (DET TIGERS vrs NY METS)
( BONDERMAN-R / R DICKEY -R )
Score: DET TIGERS(0) - NY METS(5) LOSE

06/23/2010 - 04:15 PM MLB [965] SDG PADRES 2.70
( ACTION )
Score: SDG PADRES(5) - TAM RAYS(4) PEND

06/23/2010 - 05:10 PM MLB [967] TOTAL o10½ 1.95 (PIT PIRATES vrs TEX RANGERS)
( P MAHOLM-L / D NIPPERT-R )
Score: PIT PIRATES(3) - TEX RANGERS(13) PEND

06/23/2010 - 07:00 PM MLB [972] CHI W SOX 2.01
( ACTION )
Score: ATL BRAVES(2) - CHI W SOX(4) PEND

06/23/2010 - 06:40 PM MLB [976] ARI D'BACKS +1½ 2.15
( J VAZQUES -R / D WILLIS-L )
Score: NY YANKEES(6) - ARI D'BACKS(5) PEND

06/23/2010 - 07:05 PM MLB [978] TOTAL u9 1.83 (LA DODGERS vrs LA ANGELS)
( J ELY-R / J PINEIRO-R )
Score: LA DODGERS(1) - LA ANGELS(2) PEND

06/23/2010 - 07:10 PM MLB [979] TOTAL o6½ 2.00 (CHI CUBS vrs SEA MARINERS)
( R WELLS -R / C LEE-L )
Score: CHI CUBS(1) - SEA MARINERS(8) PEND
-5.00 30.98

**StarDust Bum** · 06-24-2010, 12:37 PM

Today's Plays:

06/24/2010 by ONLINE at 08:11 AM [Ticket #: 78494374] PARLAY (6 TEAMS)

06/24/2010 @ 11:05 AM MLB [901] SFO GIANTS -1½ 1.95
( M CAIN -R / W RODRIGUEZ-L )

06/24/2010 @ 09:10 AM MLB [903] SDG PADRES +1½ 1.74
( W LEBLANC -L / M GARZA-R )

06/24/2010 @ 10:05 AM MLB [905] CLE INDIANS 2.34
( ACTION )

06/24/2010 @ 11:05 AM MLB [908] TOTAL u9 1.87 (ATL BRAVES vrs CHI W SOX)
( D LOWE -R / G FLOYD-R )

06/24/2010 @ 11:10 AM MLB [909] MIN TWINS +1½ 1.65
( N BLACKBURN-R / Y GALLARDO-R )

06/24/2010 @ 12:40 PM MLB [911] CHI CUBS +1½ 1.59
( T LILLY-L / F HERNANDEZ-R )
5.00 189.24

**StarDust Bum** · 06-24-2010, 06:24 PM

Evening Action:

Florida - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +100 500
Baltimore - Over 9.5 500 *****

St. Louis - 7:07 PM ET Toronto +122 500 *****
Toronto - Over 7.5 500 *****

Detroit - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -121 500
NY Mets - Under 8 500 *****

Pittsburgh - 8:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +215 500
Texas - Over 10.5 500 *****

Boston - 8:40 PM ET Boston +106 500 *****
Colorado - Over 9 500

LA Dodgers - 10:05 PM ET LA Dodgers +135 500 *****
LA Angels - Under 9.5 500

---------------------------------------------------------

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
06/22/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
06/20/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
06/19/10 2-4-0 33.33% -1200 Detail
06/18/10 6-2-0 75.00% +1900 Detail
06/17/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
06/15/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
06/13/10 3-3-0 50.00% -150 Detail
06/12/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
06/11/10 6-4-0 60.00% +800 Detail
06/10/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
06/08/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
06/06/10 2-4-0 33.33% -1200 Detail
06/05/10 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
06/04/10 4-4-0 50.00% -200 Detail
06/03/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
06/01/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
Totals 41-39-0 51.25% -950

Thursday, June 24Game Score Status Pick Amount

Los Angeles - 7:00 PM ET Los Angeles +8 500 *****
Washington - Over 152.5 500 *****

Good Luck !

**bryce** · 06-24-2010, 06:27 PM

Good luck Stardust!!

**StarDust Bum** · 06-24-2010, 07:59 PM

Reviewing the NBA Draft Betting Options

The annual NBA Draft is Thursday night, and with the drafts in every sport having become a major production of late, there is sometimes information overload. Still, with coverage in excess on a variety of sites across the web and so many experts offering their own “Mock drafts” beforehand, you can usually have a good idea of who will get picked and when going in. Of course, this can lead to betting profits. Let’s take a look at a number of the various betting options Sportsbook.com is showing for Thursday to see if we can’t pick out some line mistakes.

Now, I don’t proclaim to be an expert in the area of draft position, with potential and actual on-the-court production in college often viewed as two different things. Plus, I really know very little about the foreign players that infuse themselves into the draft each summer. Therefore, for the sake of this exercise, I will follow the lead of five different mock drafts I was able to find on the internet on Wednesday. These are popular sites that I refer to regularly to get accurate, updated news, stats, and more.

Let’s get right to the options:

Gordon Hayward - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): -250
No (Picked 15th or Later): +175
******* Steve’s Analysis: In the five mock drafts, Heyward was picked no higher than 12th and off the lottery board in three of them. I believe coming from Butler will hinder his stock a bit from picking time. NO at +175 for me.

Patrick Patterson - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): -170
No (Picked 15th or Later): +130
******* Steve’s Analysis: Patterson was projected as a lottery selection in four of the five mock drafts, averaging about 13th. However, I don’t think he was all that productive in college and while nicely-sized at 6’-8”, isn’t a very good rebounder. NO once again.

James Anderson - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): +130
No (Picked 15th or Later): -180
******* Steve’s Analysis: I gotta trust the experts on this one. Only one of the mocks had him as a lottery guy, while he slipped to the bottom of the first round in two others. Despite his ability to score, I don’ see anyone taking a chance on him early.

Damion James - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): +200
No (Picked 15th or Later): -300
******* Steve’s Analysis: For whatever the reason, the four-year college players don’t get anywhere near the respect as those that skip school early. James has a big athletic body but his career just wasn’t quite scintillating enough. NO.

Eric Bledsoe - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): +200
No (Picked 15th or Later): -300
******* Steve’s Analysis: Did you watch this guy struggle in the tournament shooting the ball? He’s only 6-1 and his offensive skills are limited. NO.

Avery Bradley - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): -135
No (Picked 15th or Later): -105
******* Steve’s Analysis: I’m somewhat surprised to see the odds on this one, as while Bradley has gotten favorable reviews of late, most projections show him going to Miami at #18. Gotta take a chance on NO at -105.

Wesley Johnson - Over/Under Draft Position
Over 4.5 (+200)
Under 4.5 (-300)
******* Steve’s Analysis: Johnson is a very athletic, prototype NBA small forward. His average draft position in the five mocks was 3.8 and in none of them did he drop below 4th. I’ll say he goes to the Nets at #3.

DeMarcus Cousins - Over/Under Draft Position
Over 4.5 (-250)
Under 4.5 (+175)
******* Steve’s Analysis: I don’t quite understand why Demarcus Cousins is rated below Derrick Favors on almost every draft board I see, but he is. I’m not going to fight it. I believe it comes down to the two at #4 with the T-Wolves and they go with Favors. OVER 4.5.

Luke Harangody - Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -150
No +110
******* Steve’s Analysis: If the draft were based upon college production, Harangody would be a Top 5 pick. Unfortunately for him it’s not, and he is now on the fence for even getting selected. Still, I think his ability to score in a variety of ways, including getting to the line, will be the difference in hearing his name called. YES.

Jon Scheyer - Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -200
No +150
******* Steve’s Analysis: Again…this draft is not about what you did in college, it’s about what you can do as a pro. Scheyer is the perfect backup point guard and if Travis Deiner can make it in the NBA for many seasons, Scheyer certainly can. YES.

DaSean Butler - Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -150
No +110
******* Steve’s Analysis: It’s unbelievable that a guy of Butler’s stature at West Virginia and in the Big East can be on the bubble for getting drafted but he is small for a forward, not a great shooter, and injured his knee at the Final Four. A NO on this wager.

Sherron Collins - Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -160
No +120
******* Steve’s Analysis: Very small but a good shooter and there may not be a better floor general out there. Collins will be drafted.

Scottie Reynolds - Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes +175
No -250
******* Steve’s Analysis: As big-time as Reynolds was at Villanova over the years, his shooting stroke is somewhat unorthodox and he could be coming in a year that is deep in point guards. I’ll say NO.

Samardo Samuels - Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -140
No +100
******* Steve’s Analysis: Samuels’ college recruitment and entire career at Louisville was built around the term potential. At 6-8, 245 lbs., Samuels still boasts that potential. The draft is about potential. He gets picked.

Player to get Drafted First
DeMarcus Cousins -200
Greg Monroe +150
******* Steve’s Analysis: I can’t see anyone passing on Cousins’ power game in favor of Monroe’s more finesse game. Cousins has a NBA body right now.

Player to get Drafted First
Al-Farouq Aminu -400
Gordon Hayward +250
******* Steve’s Analysis: Besides fighting the stigma of being the “slow, white guy”, Heyward is up against a guy that is being described as one of the best athletes in the draft and young as well. If you’re willing to pay the -400, this should be a lock with Aminu.

Player to get Drafted First
Cole Aldrich +130
Ed Davis -180
******* Steve’s Analysis: I’ve seen draft boards projecting Ed Davis as high as #7 to the Pistons. I’ve not seen anything showing Aldrich as a top 10. This seems to be a second straight prop where oddsmakers are putting the higher potential black player against the more consistent but not as explosive white guy. Davis is the man.

Player to get Drafted First
Patrick Patterson -300
Eric Bledsoe +200
******* Steve’s Analysis: This would seem to be an easy one based upon the price, but Bledsoe came out as a freshman while Patterson had three years at Kentucky. Both have their limitations, but I believe Bledsoe can become a better shooter. Patterson’s size limits him somewhat as a “tweener”. I’d be hesitant about laying the -300.

Player to get Drafted First
Damion James -120
Solomon Alabi -120
******* Steve’s Analysis: Good prop here…James is the experienced and somewhat polished player who can step in right away. Alabi is the 7-1 player who could blossom later. If James gets beyond pick #20, Alabi is the winner on this prop, otherwise its James.

Total ACC Players drafted in the 1st Round
Over 4.5 (-130)
Under 4.5 (+100)
******* Steve’s Analysis: This prop all hinges on where Gani Lawal or Greivis Vazquez get picked. There’s a good chance one of the two goes in the first round. With Favors, Aminu, Davis, and Alabi certain locks, I’ll go with over 4.5 I guess.

Total BIG East Players drafted in the 1st Round
Over 4.5 (+150)
Under 4.5 (-200)
******* Steve’s Analysis: In my opinon, Devin Ebanks of West Virginia is a stretch for the first round and he would be the fourth Big East player chosen behind Johnson, Monroe and Dominique Jones. Under 4.5.

Total Kentucky Players drafted in the Lottery (Picked 1st to 14th)
Over 2.5 (-150)
Under 2.5 (+110)
******* Steve’s Analysis: Wall and Cousins are certified lottery players. I don’t believe Patterson or Bledso are. UNDER 2.5 with favorable +110 odds.

Total College Seniors drafted in the 1st Round
Over 2.5 (even)
Under 2.5 (-140)
******* Steve’s Analysis: This really is a sad state for college hoops when the best hope for the number of first round seniors to go is three. Vazquez of Maryland and Pondexter of Washington are likely #2 and #3. I don’t think they both go. UNDER 2.5.

Total Duke Players drafted in the 1st and 2nd Round
Over 1.5 (even)
Under 1.5 (-140)
******* Steve’s Analysis: Wow…another interesting prop that highlights a problem in college basketball. Two of the main players from the national championship game might not get drafted. I think Scheyer does, Kyle Singler doesn’t. UNDER.

Quincy Pondexter - When Will He be Drafted
1st Round -200
2nd Round or NOT Drafted +150
******* Steve’s Analysis: Averaged nearly 20 PPG at Washington and seems to be long enough and a good enough shooter to make himself a name as a scorer in the NBA. Seems worth a first rounder to me.

Lazar Hayward - When Will He be Drafted
1st Round +250
2nd Round or NOT Drafted -400
******* Steve’s Analysis: Hayward was on the first round projections of just one of the five experts. His stock has shot up a bit of late with some impressive workouts, but I still believe GM’s will be confused as to where he will play at the pro level. Second round.

Dexter Pittman - When Will He be Drafted
1st Round +225
2nd Round or NOT Drafted -350
******* Steve’s Analysis: Haven’t seen a single indicator showing Pittman in the first round, and I don’t think Texas will have three guys chosen in Round one.

Lance Stephenson - When Will He be Drafted
1st Round -140
2nd Round or NOT Drafted +100
******* Steve’s Analysis: Having watched this guy a number of times at Cincinnati, I’m puzzled as to why his draft stock isn’t higher. He seems to have a game suited nicely for the pro level. I’ll say 1st round.

Stanley Robinson - When Will He be Drafted
1st Round +130
2nd Round or NOT Drafted -180
******* Steve’s Analysis: A guy with size but somewhat lazy. I don’t think teams at the bottom of the draft are looking for that type of player. They can afford to take flyers. Not a first rounder.

2010 NBA Draft - Derrick Favors - He will play his first NBA Regular Season Game for
Nets -150
Any Other Team +110
******* Steve’s Analysis: I called for the Nets to take Wesley Johnson earlier so I’ll stick to that. Anyway, even if he does get drafted, trades are more and more common on draft night.

2010 NBA Draft - Wesley Johnson - He will play his first NBA Regular Season Game for
Twolves -115
Any Other Team -125
******* Steve’s Analysis: Johnson to the Nets, thus ANY OTHER TEAM.

John Wall - He will play his first NBA Regular Season Game for
Wizards -1000
Any Other Team +550
******* Steve’s Analysis: I don’t see why not…However laying -1000 is too rich for my blood.

Evan Turner - He will play his first NBA Regular Season Game for
76ers -300
Any Other Team +200
******* Steve’s Analysis: Turner seems to be the consensus #2 pick and with his all-around offensive skills and solid defensive game, Philly would be crazy to trade him.

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