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**StarDust Bum** · 06-20-2010, 10:12 AM

Sunday Baseball Records Might Surprise

When handicapping baseball day-in and day-out, there is a lot to consider, such as team and pitcher power ratings, bullpen strength, hitting stats, defensive numbers, and even injury factors. Of course, it’s often valuable to look at teams’ situational records, and ******* offers a plethora of these on its Team Report pages. We’re here today to look at performance on a particular day of the week over the last 2-1/2 seasons, that being Sundays.

We’re not just looking at Sunday because that’s what day it is today, although the timing hopefully will prove valuable. More importantly though, Sunday games in baseball present a pair of situations that can prove definitive over the course of the season, those being most often 1) Day Games and 2) The Final Games of a Series.

You may be saying to yourself, who cares how a team does on Sundays? Or “This type of information is just fluke anyway”. However, keep in mind that baseball can be a superstitious game, and a team’s preparation, be it going out late in an unfamiliar city on Saturday night, or perhaps even going to an early brunch, can often lead to less than typical results. Plus, if you’re one who believes heavily in numbers and trends, how can you argue with some of the results below.

Is it a fluke that the New York Yankees have been almost unbeatable at home lately on Sunday, or that Tampa Bay plays way below its normal standard on the Lord’s Day? Who can explain with certainty why Houston produces so well for bettors on this particular day of the week?

In any case, these are the team that have produced the most distinct results on Sundays over the last 2-1/2 seasons, sorted by units won/lost.

Top Five Overall Teams
1. LA ANGELS: 43-21, 21.1 Units
2. HOUSTON: 37-25, 20.2 Units
3. PHILADELPHIA: 47-24, 16.55 Units
4. TORONTO: 36-25, 11.85 Units
5. NY YANKEES: 41-24, 9.85 Units

Bottom Five Overall Teams
26. CLEVELAND: 26-35, -12.05 Units
27. TAMPA BAY: 29-37, -19.3 Units
28. ARIZONA: 23-38, -19.45 Units
29. BALTIMORE: 18-43, -21.9 Units
30. PITTSBURGH: 17-43, -22.85 Units

Top Five Home Teams
1. NY YANKEES: 27-4, 21.35 Units
2. LA ANGELS: 23-7, 13.2 Units
3. TORONTO: 21-10, 10.6 Units
4. DETROIT: 22-8, 10.25 Units
5. BOSTON: 25-11, 9.2 Units

Bottom Five Home Teams
26. TAMPA BAY: 18-15, -5.45 Units
27. PITTSBURGH: 11-18, -6.4 Units
28. SAN DIEGO: 13-18, -7.15 Units
29. BALTIMORE: 11-19, -8.15 Units
30. ARIZONA: 13-19, -11.05 Units

Top Five Road Teams
1. HOUSTON: 19-12, 14.95 Units
2. PHILADELPHIA: 23-12, 9.1 Units
3. LA ANGELS: 20-14, 7.9 Units
4. KANSAS CITY: 16-15, 6.6 Units
5. TEXAS: 16-16, 4.25 Units

Bottom Five Road Teams
26. NY YANKEES: 14-20, -11.5 Units
27. BOSTON: 11-21, -13.45 Units
28. BALTIMORE: 7-24, -13.75 Units
29. TAMPA BAY: 11-22, -13.85 Units
30. PITTSBURGH: 6-25, -16.45 Units

Top Five OVER the Total Teams
1. FLORIDA: 34-26 OVER
2. ST LOUIS: 33-25 OVER
3. SAN FRANCISCO: 32-26 OVER
4. NY YANKEES: 33-29 OVER
5. LA DODGERS: 33-30 OVER

Top Five UNDER the Total Teams
1. MINNESOTA: 40-22 UNDER
2. TEXAS: 38-23 UNDER
3. WASHINGTON: 37-22 UNDER
4. CLEVELAND: 36-22 UNDER
5. HOUSTON: 35-24 UNDER

As you consider these results, take a look at the full board of matchups for this Sunday to see if you can’t spot any potential value plays, then hit em’ hard. Do the same thing for the next couple months of Sunday baseball by saving and referring back to the chart below. You’ll probably do well.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-20-2010, 10:13 AM

Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 6/18-6/20

Another weekend of interleague baseball is upon us and there are several key series’ you’ll want to keep close tabs on, including the Subway Series in New York between the Mets and Yankees from the Bronx. The Mets have been MLB’s best team in interleague play this season at 8-1, but unfortunately, their colleagues have once again fallen into the clutches of the superior A.L. teams. Heading into Friday’s games, the Junior Circuit holds a 66-60 lead in head-to-head play. Perhaps that can change this weekend, as the N.L. clubs host nine of the 14 interleague sets. Let’s take a look at the key action and reveal the list of Top ******* Power Trends that you’ll want to consider in your weekend wagering.

The first series you’ll want to take a closer look at puts Minnesota in Philadelphia to take on the Phillies. The hosts come off back-to-back wins at Yankee Stadium and are within 3-1/2 games of the lead in the N.L. East. They are a disappointing 16-13 at home though and have gone just 3-12 for -13.3 net units against A.L. teams at home over the last two seasons. The A.L. Central-leading Twins have historically been one of the best interleague clubs but are a pedestrian 5-4 in 2010.

The Subway series will be the highlight matchup of the weekend for no other reason than the fact that both teams are playing well and at or right near the top of their respective divisions. The Mets come in on a seven game winning streak and as winners of 11 of their last 12 games. Their bats have come alive of late, having pounded out 58 hits over the last four games. The Yankees come in off back-to-back losses but still remain deadlocked with Tampa Bay in the A.L. East standings. These teams hooked up nearly a month ago at Citi Field with the Mets taking two of three. They are 4-2 in their last six games on the road in this rivalry.

The Dodgers and Red Sox square off for three games in what figures to be another great series. After starting the season in shaky fashion, both teams have rebounded quickly and find themselves right back in the hunt in their respective divisions. Boston is just 2-games back in the A.L. East, thanks much in part to an impressive 7-2 interleague record. They have won five of six games on their current homestand vs. N.L. foes, extending their record to 86-39 in interleague play under Terry Francona. The Dodgers, who are tied atop the N.L. West with San Diego, are just 2-4 vs. the A.L. in 2010, including a sweep at the hands of the Angels last weekend.

There are other regional rivalries that should produce good baseball in other parts of the country as well. In Florida, the Marlins welcome Tampa Bay to conclude a home-and-home series and in Houston, the Astros play host to the A.L. West leading Rangers. Elsewhere, Stephen Strasburg throws the first game of the Nationals home series with the White Sox and Pittsburgh looks for a first interleague victory of the year when it hosts Cleveland.

Now, here’s a look at some of those Top ******* Power Trends you’ll want to consider in your weekend wagering, direct from FoxSheets, the Ultimate Sports Tipsheet

MILWAUKEE at COLORADO

MILWAUKEE is 22-11 OVER (+10.6 Units) in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.9, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 1*)

LA ANGELS at CHICAGO CUBS

LA ANGELS are 19-9 (+11.1 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)

MINNESOTA at PHILADELPHIA

MINNESOTA is 18-6 (+15.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.0, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 2*)

NY METS at NY YANKEES

NY YANKEES are 23-3 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.6, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)

CHI WHITE SOX at WASHINGTON

WASHINGTON is 22-4 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. The average score was WASHINGTON 5.1, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*)

CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH

CLEVELAND is 6-17 (-14.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 3.9, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 2*)

ARIZONA at DETROIT

ARIZONA is 20-11 OVER (+8.5 Units) vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game this season. The average score was ARIZONA 4.9, OPPONENT 6.8 - (Rating = 1*)

SAN FRANCISCO at TORONTO

TORONTO is 17-5 OVER (+11.8 Units) vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season. The average score was TORONTO 5.0, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 3*)

LA DODGERS at BOSTON

BOSTON is 66-28 (+29.4 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 6.3, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)

TAMPA BAY at FLORIDA

TAMPA BAY is 16-3 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.3, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 3*)

KANSAS CITY at ATLANTA

KANSAS CITY is 60-35 OVER (+22.1 Units) vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.5, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)

TEXAS at HOUSTON

HOUSTON is 73-47 UNDER (+19.6 Units) vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 3.7, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)

OAKLAND at ST LOUIS

ST LOUIS is 27-11 UNDER (+14.4 Units) in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.0, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 2*)

BALTIMORE at SAN DIEGO

BALTIMORE is 2-16 (-13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 2.8, OPPONENT 6.9 - (Rating = 1*)

CINCINNATI at SEATTLE

CINCINNATI is 66-41 (+24.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CINCINNATI 4.9, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)

**StarDust Bum** · 06-20-2010, 10:14 AM

Sunday's Tip Sheet

The fourth round of interleague play will come to a close on Sunday with another 14 games on tap. The National League started this season with some confidence over the American League but that momentum has quickly changed and it could get worse today. The AL went 8-6 on Friday and 10-4 on Saturday, plus out of the eight teams that face three-game sweeps today, six are from the NL.

We’re going to break down the eight potential sweeps, plus look at a pair of intrastate matchups that feature aces going head-to-head on the diamond.

Aces Wild

Ray (42-26, +335) vs. Marlins (32-36, -505)

Florida has dropped four of its last five but it has a great chance to right the ship Sunday when Josh Johnson (7-2, 1.86 ERA) takes the hill. He’s been better at home (5-1, 1.48 ERA), compiling 74 strikeouts in 61 innings. Unfortunately, he hasn’t receive much run support this season and he might not this afternoon since his teammates will be facing the Rays’ David Price (10-2, 2.31 ERA). Tampa’s lefthander will go for his AL-leading 11th win, but he might not be in top form after getting hit in the groin with an inadvertent throw during practice yesterday. Price is 2-0 versus the NL this season but his offense has helped him with 20 runs in the two wins, something that’s doubtful to happen against Johnson.

Gamblers should make a note that the Marlins are 4-0 at home this season in the daytime versus lefthanders. Florida and Tampa have split the first two in this series and both games have gone ‘over’ the number. The Marlins are minus-130 (Bet $130 to win $100) favorites to win today and the total is hovering around 7 ½ runs. Johnson has watched the ‘under’ go 5-1-1 in his last seven appearances, which includes a 4-0-1 mark in South Florida. All-Star shortstop Hanley Ramirez (hamstring) has been tabbed ‘doubtful’ for the Marlins this afternoon.

Mets (39-29,+1,039) vs. Yankees (42-26, -259)

The Mets took two of three against their cross-town rival in May at home and now the Yankees have the opportunity to return the favor on Sunday from the Bronx. The Yankees snapped the Mets’ eight-game winning streak yesterday with a 5-3 decision. The combined eight runs helped cash the ‘under’ for the second straight day.

We could see another low-scoring affair this afternoon when the Mets’ Johan Santana (5-3, 3.13 ERA) and Yankees’ CC Sabathia (7-3, 400 ERA) go head-to-head. Santana already stifled the Yankees on May 23, allowing one earned run over 7 2/3 innings as the Mets captured a 6-4 decision over Sabathia, who was chased for 10 hits and five earned runs in five innings. The Mets have gone 2-5 in Santana’s seven road starts and his offense hasn’t helped during this stretch (18 total runs).

The Yankees won five of CC’s first seven starts but then fell in four straight. Fortunately, the big lefty has gotten back on track with three straight wins heading into this matchup. The Mets (13-7) have had more success than the Yankees (12-12) against southpaws this season. Derek Jeter (heel) missed Saturday’s win for the Yanks and is deemed ‘questionable’ for today.

Sunday’s Sweeps

The Angels entered Wrigley Field with a hot streak and the Cubs haven’t been able to slow them down. Los Angeles has gone 16-5 in its last 21 games, which includes two straight against Chicago. The Angels’ Joe Saunders was tattooed against the Brewers Monday but he’s been tough on the road and the Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano (2-5, 5.66 ERA) is always shaky. The Cubs have faced the broom at home three times before this season and they’ve come up with wins each time to avoid the sweep, including last Sunday’s gem by Ted Lilly over the Chisox. A lot of Toronto’s success this season has come from its offense but don’t tell the Giants that. The Blue Jays have posted 3-2 and 3-0 decisions over San Francisco and they send Shaun Marcum (6-3, 3.31 ERA) to the mound today. Marcum has been incredible in the daytime, going 4-0 with a 2.58 ERA in seven afternoon starts. The Giants are 0-5 on the road in this year’s interleague battles.

The White Sox overcame the Stephen Strasburg show on Friday with a 2-1 victory in 11 innings and then watched Jake Peavy toss a gem for a 1-0 victory on Sunday against the Nationals. Ozzie Guillen’s club has won nine of 10 and five straight with a chance to sweep the Nats today. After going 2-1 against Baltimore, Washington is 1-7 in its eight other interleague battles.

The Manny Ramirez show has been silenced this weekend after Boston quickly took the first two from Los Angeles. Boston is hot right now and its best pitcher during this run is Clay Buchholz (9-4, 2.67 ERA), who is 6-1 with a 1.84 ERA over his last seven appearances. The Dodgers have lost six straight to the AL and the pitching staff has surrendered 41 runs over this span.

Atlanta continues to impress this season and they keep rolling along with walk-off winners, notching its 13th victory in its final at-bat on Saturday over the Royals (5-4). The Braves go for the sweep behind Kenshin Kawakami (0-9, 4.42 ERA) and that could spell trouble. Atlanta is just 3-10 in his appearances, but he’s getting less than three runs per game from his offense.

St. Louis nipped Oakland 6-4 on Friday and 4-3 on Saturday, and today’s finale could be tight as well. The Cardinals will send Jeff Suppan to the hill again after picking him up as a DL replacement. The A’s are listed as plus-105 underdogs in this spot because they’ve got the better hurler going in Trevor Cahill (6-2, 3.32 ERA.

After going 1-2 against the Cubs in their first interleague series, the Rangers have now won seven of eight against the NL clubs, including two straight over Houston. To no surprise, Texas has been made a healthy road favorite (-150) with C.J. Wilson taking the hill against the always inconsistent Astros’ starter Felipe Paulino (1-8, 4.50 ERA).

Seattle beat Cincinnati 1-0 and 5-1 behind great outings from Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez to start this series. The Reds hope Aaron Harang (5-6, 5.44 ERA) can help stop the bleeding and he’s been decent against the Mariners (1-2, 1.32 ERA) over his career. Cincy hasn’t been swept since Apr. 18, when the Pirates pulled off the trick in Western Pennsylvania.

Total Notes

The Yankees have posted nine runs over their last four games, which has helped the ‘under’ go 4-0.
Similar to their series in May from Tampa, the Rays and Marlins watched the first two games easily go ‘over’ the number. Sure enough, the finale went ‘under’ the total. Will it be déjà vu today?
Arizona continues to be an ‘over’ machine this season, posting a 48-24 mark on the season, which includes a 29-11 road ledger. The first two games against Detroit saw 12 and 11 runs posted on the scoreboard and today’s total is listed at 9 ½ runs.
The Reds have watched the ‘under’ go 4-0 over the last four and the club has been held to three runs or less in five of their previous six games.
Minnesota and Philadelphia have put up 14 and 23 runs in their first two battles this weekend. Despite those outbursts, today’s total is listed at eight with the Phillies’ Roy Halladay taking the hill and he’s coming off his worst start (6 ER, 8 hits) of the season on Tuesday against the Yankees (3-8). Still, Halladay is 8-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 11 starts versus the Twins in his career.

**Kaptain** · 06-20-2010, 01:10 PM

gl as always Star Dust.....have a good Fathers Day

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