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**StarDust Bum** · 06-19-2010, 11:49 AM

Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 6/18-6/20

Another weekend of interleague baseball is upon us and there are several key series’ you’ll want to keep close tabs on, including the Subway Series in New York between the Mets and Yankees from the Bronx. The Mets have been MLB’s best team in interleague play this season at 8-1, but unfortunately, their colleagues have once again fallen into the clutches of the superior A.L. teams. Heading into Friday’s games, the Junior Circuit holds a 66-60 lead in head-to-head play. Perhaps that can change this weekend, as the N.L. clubs host nine of the 14 interleague sets. Let’s take a look at the key action and reveal the list of Top ******* Power Trends that you’ll want to consider in your weekend wagering.

The first series you’ll want to take a closer look at puts Minnesota in Philadelphia to take on the Phillies. The hosts come off back-to-back wins at Yankee Stadium and are within 3-1/2 games of the lead in the N.L. East. They are a disappointing 16-13 at home though and have gone just 3-12 for -13.3 net units against A.L. teams at home over the last two seasons. The A.L. Central-leading Twins have historically been one of the best interleague clubs but are a pedestrian 5-4 in 2010.

The Subway series will be the highlight matchup of the weekend for no other reason than the fact that both teams are playing well and at or right near the top of their respective divisions. The Mets come in on a seven game winning streak and as winners of 11 of their last 12 games. Their bats have come alive of late, having pounded out 58 hits over the last four games. The Yankees come in off back-to-back losses but still remain deadlocked with Tampa Bay in the A.L. East standings. These teams hooked up nearly a month ago at Citi Field with the Mets taking two of three. They are 4-2 in their last six games on the road in this rivalry.

The Dodgers and Red Sox square off for three games in what figures to be another great series. After starting the season in shaky fashion, both teams have rebounded quickly and find themselves right back in the hunt in their respective divisions. Boston is just 2-games back in the A.L. East, thanks much in part to an impressive 7-2 interleague record. They have won five of six games on their current homestand vs. N.L. foes, extending their record to 86-39 in interleague play under Terry Francona. The Dodgers, who are tied atop the N.L. West with San Diego, are just 2-4 vs. the A.L. in 2010, including a sweep at the hands of the Angels last weekend.

There are other regional rivalries that should produce good baseball in other parts of the country as well. In Florida, the Marlins welcome Tampa Bay to conclude a home-and-home series and in Houston, the Astros play host to the A.L. West leading Rangers. Elsewhere, Stephen Strasburg throws the first game of the Nationals home series with the White Sox and Pittsburgh looks for a first interleague victory of the year when it hosts Cleveland.

Now, here’s a look at some of those Top ******* Power Trends you’ll want to consider in your weekend wagering, direct from FoxSheets, the Ultimate Sports Tipsheet

MILWAUKEE at COLORADO

MILWAUKEE is 22-11 OVER (+10.6 Units) in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.9, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 1*)

LA ANGELS at CHICAGO CUBS

LA ANGELS are 19-9 (+11.1 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)

MINNESOTA at PHILADELPHIA

MINNESOTA is 18-6 (+15.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.0, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 2*)

NY METS at NY YANKEES

NY YANKEES are 23-3 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.6, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)

CHI WHITE SOX at WASHINGTON

WASHINGTON is 22-4 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. The average score was WASHINGTON 5.1, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*)

CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH

CLEVELAND is 6-17 (-14.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 3.9, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 2*)

ARIZONA at DETROIT

ARIZONA is 20-11 OVER (+8.5 Units) vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game this season. The average score was ARIZONA 4.9, OPPONENT 6.8 - (Rating = 1*)

SAN FRANCISCO at TORONTO

TORONTO is 17-5 OVER (+11.8 Units) vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season. The average score was TORONTO 5.0, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 3*)

LA DODGERS at BOSTON

BOSTON is 66-28 (+29.4 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 6.3, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)

TAMPA BAY at FLORIDA

TAMPA BAY is 16-3 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.3, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 3*)

KANSAS CITY at ATLANTA

KANSAS CITY is 60-35 OVER (+22.1 Units) vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.5, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)

TEXAS at HOUSTON

HOUSTON is 73-47 UNDER (+19.6 Units) vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 3.7, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)

OAKLAND at ST LOUIS

ST LOUIS is 27-11 UNDER (+14.4 Units) in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.0, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 2*)

BALTIMORE at SAN DIEGO

BALTIMORE is 2-16 (-13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 2.8, OPPONENT 6.9 - (Rating = 1*)

CINCINNATI at SEATTLE

CINCINNATI is 66-41 (+24.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CINCINNATI 4.9, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)

**StarDust Bum** · 06-19-2010, 11:54 AM

Favorites overpriced on Saturday Arena slate?

Most teams are 10 games into the 2010 Arena Football season and chances are you haven’t been keeping as close of tabs on the betting action as you maybe should. Every week presents great opportunities and this week is no different, as several key pieces of FoxSheets information suggest there could be some line mistakes. One of them might be in the highlight game of the week, as Milwaukee visits Chicago, with the Midwest Division lead on the line.

The Milwaukee Iron pounded the Rush at home, 71-48, back in May, but surprisingly, the visitors were the 1.5-point favorites in that contest. Milwaukee is the road favorite this time around, having opened as a 2-point dog only to be bet way up to 3-point chalk. That line movement was not surprising considering the Rush will be without starting quarterback Russ Michna and leading receiver Samie Parker, as both will miss the game to attend a three-day mini-camp for the Las Vegas Locomotives of the United Football League. Michna will be replaced in the starting lineup by backup quarterback J.J. Raterink, who will be making his first career start.

Even still, perhaps bettors aren’t giving enough consideration to what has been very shaky play on the road all season by the Iron. They are just 1-3 away while yielding an ugly 65.7 PPG. Chicago has been much better defensively in 2010 as well, giving up just 52.9 PPG, 4th best in the league. According to FoxSheets, Milwaukee’s suspect defense could present a strong home dog opportunity:

Play Against - Favorites (MILWAUKEE) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.7 or more yards/play, after gaining 7 or more yards/play in their previous game. (69-35 over the last 10 seasons.) (66.3%, +30.5 units. Rating = 2*)

Incidentally, in the latest Arena Football Writers Association Power Poll, Milwaukee is ranked third, having received one first place vote, which Chicago checks in at #5.

There are two other games involving red-hot teams that might catch your eye on Saturday in the Arena Football League as well, as both seems to have gained the attention of oddsmakers, perhaps to the point where they are now being overvalued. In one of them, Tampa Bay, who has won four straight games, will be visiting Utah. The Storm are listed as 18-point road favorites, despite the fact that they are gauged as just the 6th best team in the AFLWA poll. They are also not one of the league’s big scoring clubs, averaging 55.4 PPG, only 9th best. However, this line could be built more against Utah and less behind Tampa. The Blaze have been downright awful in 2010, being outscored by 19.8 PPG while going -8. That said, Utah has turned the ball over 17 times in the last four games, and an improvement on that number could certainly make them more competitive on Saturday.

This game also boasts a nice FoxSheets system:

Play Against - Any team (TAMPA BAY) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. (124-74 since 1996.) (62.6%, +42.6 units. Rating = 2*)

The ******* Power Line indicates the pointspread in this contest should only be Tampa Bay by 14.

The final game we want to look at finds Arizona, winners of its last four games, hosting Bossier-Shreveport. The Rattlers have reach ed a season-high 4th on the power poll, and at 6-3 trailed Spokane by a game in the West Division heading into Friday’s action. Arizona is a 9.5-point favorite, its biggest chalk line of the season by nearly 3-points. The Rattlers’ 4-game winning streak has a lot to do with that. However, AFL betting history suggests the value lies with the road dogs in this case:

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOSSIER-SHREVEPORT) - in June games. (72-33 since 1996.) (68.6%, +35.7 units. Rating = 3*)

Three games, three favorites that seem to be getting embraced by both public bettors and oddsmakers. Usually that pattern doesn’t last too long, especially when you can actually see the difference in the line. It will be interesting to see how the three underdogs in this over-priced games come to play.

**jt4545** · 06-19-2010, 01:05 PM

Good luck and thanks

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