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**StarDust Bum** · 06-17-2010, 11:25 AM

NBA Finals Game 7...Enough Said

With an emphatic, historic blowout win in Game 6 Tuesday night, Los Angeles earned the right to host the grand finale to the NBA season. The winner-take-all Game 7 between the Lakers and Celtics is set for Thursday night, with the tip-off at 9:05 PM ET. Despite the 67-points scored by the Celtics and the 22-point winning margin, oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have adjusted the opening line only slightly, making the Lakers 7-point favorites after showing them at minus-6.5 points on Tuesday.

This being the biggest game of the season, expect betting action to be brisk. On Tuesday, a greater percentage of bettors (53%) actually favored the Celtics against the number at Sportsbook.com. It will be interesting to see how they react to the price for Game 7.

In the game Tuesday night, Kobe Bryant scored 26 points, Pau Gasol added 17 points and 13 rebounds, and the Lakers held Boston to the second lowest-scoring performance in NBA finals history in an 89-67 victory.

Faced with elimination for the first time in this postseason, the defending champion Lakers didn’t flinch.

“We’re used to being in must-win situations,” Bryant said. “The way we look at it, (Game 7) is just a game we’ve got to win. … I don’t mean to be a buzzkill. I know what’s at stake, but I’m not tripping.”

He left that to the Celtics, who fell all over themselves after falling behind by 22 points in the first half. Boston memorably eliminated the Lakers in the sixth game of the 2008 finals with a 39-point blowout—but this time around, the Celtics lost their series lead and their starting center in one disastrous Game 6, as Kendrick Perkins will have to miss the all-important game with a knee injury.

These rivals have played a Game 7 four times in their 11 previous finals meetings, with Boston winning all four. But it hasn’t happened since 1984—and it hasn’t happened to Bryant or head coach Phil Jackson.

Overall, this will be just the third NBA Finals Game 7 in the last 23 years. There hasn’t been a winner-take-all finals game since San Antonio finished off Detroit five years ago, and Thursday’s Game 7 will be the 17th in NBA history. The Spurs’ victory over the Pistons was the first Game 7 since 1994, when the Houston Rockets capped a comeback with two home victories over the New York Knicks and their point guard—now Celtics’ head coach Doc Rivers.

In the ugly loss, Paul Pierce scored 13 points and Kevin Garnett added 12, but the Celtics’ offense was a jumbled, stand-around mess. Rajon Rondo(notes), the late-game hero in Boston’s last appearance in Los Angeles, got off to a 1-for-8 shooting start before finishing with 10 points and six assists.

“I thought we’d play better, obviously,” Rivers said. “I thought we were ready. … We played an individual game tonight on both ends. We never gave ourselves an opportunity offensively, because we never trusted each other. Everybody was out to make their own place.”

The Lakers improved to 10-1 in the postseason at Staples Center, while the Celtics dropped to 3-4 in closeout playoff games this season—including 0-3 on the road. Boston had nine chances to finish a playoff series away from home in the past three postseasons, but has been successful only once.

Here are some of the key ******* betting angles that figure to affect this contest:

Favoring LA Lakers:

BOSTON is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. The average score was BOSTON 96.4, OPPONENT 96.4 - (Rating = 2*)

Favoring Boston:

BOSTON is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 104.9, OPPONENT 92.6 - (Rating = 1*)

Favoring OVER the total:

LA LAKERS are 18-5 OVER (+12.5 Units) after a combined score of 160 points or less since 1996. The average score was LA LAKERS 101.5, OPPONENT 97.1 - (Rating = 1*)

Favoring UNDER the total:

LA LAKERS are 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after allowing 80 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 100.9, OPPONENT 97.1 - (Rating = 1*)

There figures to be a lot to consider when analyzing Thursday’s game. Don’t miss out on a single potential golden nugget. Sign on to FoxSheets anytime before tip-off for all the key betting information as we wrap up another great year of NBA basketball coverage at *******!

**StarDust Bum** · 06-17-2010, 11:26 AM

WNBA Top Weekend Systems and Trends

Seattle and Atlanta continue to lead their respective conferences, with the Dream the better wager at 7-2 against the spread. Connecticut and Washington are next in line as good wagers, sporting 5-2 ATS and 5-2-1 ATS records respectively. In fact the East only has one team with a losing spread record to start the weekend while the Storm is the only club in the West with a positive spread mark.

The Western Conference either has better offenses or weaker defenses as every team but San Antonio regularly goes Over the oddsmakers total. Check Sportsbook.com for the latest numbers.

Bet you didn’t know………..

Friday, June 11

Atlanta at New York

Back on May 23 Atlanta knocked off New York 86-77 as three-point underdogs. Nearly three weeks later, the same exact situation is in play with the first place Dream proving to be a formidable club. The Liberty are off a satisfying 85-70 upset at Chicago as six-point road dogs. For this conflict look to play against revenging favorites off a road win by 10 points or more. The underdog in this spot is 45-7 ATS since 2006.

Indiana at Connecticut

Both teams are playing excellent basketball with Indiana having won five of six (4-2 ATS) and Connecticut four of five SU and ATS. Oddsmakers have the Sun favored by just two points at home and visitors when the line is +3 to -3, after three or more consecutive wins on Friday nights are 37-9 ATS.

Tulsa at San Antonio

Tulsa’s defense has been shoddy all year in permitting 86.1 points per game and they are 6.5-point road underdogs at San Antonio. Here we seek to play against away dogs after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games vs. opponent after a loss by 10 points or more. In the past five years, this system wins 80 percent of the time. (36-9 ATS)

Washington at Chicago

Both Eastern Conference clubs are off home losses as favorites, Washington’s 86-79 to Atlanta and Chicago’s by 15 points to New York. The Sky is a 4.5-point pick over the Mystic and for good reason. Favorites off a blowout loss by 15 points or more, against opponent after a combined score of 165 points or more are 29-8 ATS.

Los Angeles at Seattle

Seattle is second in the WNBA is points allowed (74.3) and field goal percentage (41.1). The Storm and their opponent Los Angeles are both off wins over defending champion Phoenix, the Sparks a slim 92-91 triumph. Seattle is a 7.5-point choice and home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, after allowing 70 points or more in two straight games against opponent after a close win by three points or less are 33-8 ATS.

Saturday, June 12

New York at Washington

Washington is only ninth in the league at getting to the line for 20.8 free throws a game. With both teams having played on Friday and the total 146, the Under has been the right play when the total is between 140 and 149.5 points and the home club attempts 20 or more free throws a game playing on Saturday’s. (28-13 L5Y)

Tulsa at Phoenix

The Mercury got back on the winning trail with a 99-88 victory over Minnesota on Thursday. This sets up nicely for Phoenix as home favorites off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival as a marginal losing team (40% to 49%), playing another club with a losing record are 25-6 ATS.

Sunday, June 13

San Antonio at Atlanta

The Silver Swords are 19-70 ATS when they allow 78 or more points a game.

The Dream is 16-3 ATS they force 13 to 18 turnovers over the last two seasons.

Minnesota at Los Angeles

Minnesota is 1-8 and 2-7 ATS since winning their opening contest.

The Sparks are 19-5 OVER when both teams score 71 or more points since last season.

Connecticut at Indiana

The Sun is 9-2 ATS when they make 29% to 35% of their three-point attempts.

The Fever is 39-19 ATS when they score 72 to 77 points a contest.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-17-2010, 11:36 AM

Diamond Trends - Thursday

Rays at Braves – The Rays are 5-0 since June 20, 2009 when James Shields starts as a road dog vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $560.

Athletics at Cubs – The Athletics are 0-7 since May 16, 2009 when Dallas Braden starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $710 when playing against..

Rangers at Marlins – The Marlins are 5-0 since June 12, 2009 when Ricky Nolasco starts after the team lost his last two starts for a net profit of $610.

White Sox at Pirates – The White Sox are 0-8 since August 09, 2009 as a favorite when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $1105 when playing against. The White Sox are 0-7 since July 12, 2009 when Mark Buehrle starts on the road after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $740 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-9 since August 05, 2009 at home after a 5+ run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against.

Diamondbacks at Red Sox – The Diamondbacks are 0-9 since September 13, 2009 vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $995 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since August 19, 2009 when Dan Haren starts as a road dog for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Red Sox are 7-0 since July 11, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $700.

Dodgers at Reds – The Dodgers are 7-0 since October 08, 2009 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $750.

Astros at Royals – The Astros are 5-0 since May 11, 2010 as a road dog when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $905.

Nationals at Tigers – The Nationals are 5-0 since October 01, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $940. The Tigers are 8-0 since September 02, 2009 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800. The Tigers are 8-0 since June 07, 2009 at home after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $800.

Rockies at Twins – The Rockies are 9-0 since August 23, 2009 when Ubaldo Jimenez starts vs a team that won their starters last two starts for a net profit of $905. The Rockies are 7-0 since April 17, 2010 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700. The Twins are 0-7 since August 20, 2009 as a dog after a one run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Phillies at Yankees – The Yankees are 9-0 since August 30, 2009 as a home 200+ favorite and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $900. The Yankees are 7-0 since September 16, 2009 at home when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $700. The Yankees are 6-0 since September 27, 2009 when Andy Pettitte starts at home after his team won the last time he started vs. this opponent for a net profit of $600.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-17-2010, 11:37 AM

Thursday's Tip Sheet

The calendar has hit mid-June and that means we’ve got tight pennant races galore. In fact, the biggest division lead is just 2 ½ games, held by Minnesota over Detroit in the American League Central. Let’s take a look at several of tonight’s key contests and more.

**Rays at Braves**

--As of early this morning, most betting shops were listing Atlanta (38-28, +735) as a minus-120 favorite with a total of 8 ½ flat (minus-110 either way). Bettors can earn a huge payout by backing the Braves on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a plus-165 return (risk $100 to win $165).

--Tim Hudson (6-2, 2.43) will get the ball for Bobby Cox’s club tonight. The veteran right-hander is 3-1 with a 2.03 ERA in four home assignments this year. Hudson has a 6-1 record and 2.85 lifetime ERA against Tampa Bay.

--James Shields (5-5, 4.55) has been scuffling lately, as evidenced by his 0-3 record and 11.49 ERA in his last three outings. For the season, Shields owns a 4-2 record and 3.43 ERA in six road starts. This is the first time he has faced the Braves in his career.

--Atlanta has been spectacular at home, cashing tickets at a 20-7 clip. The Braves have won 10 of their last 11 games at Turner Field. They maintained a one-half game advantage over the Mets for first place in the NL East by thumping the Rays last night by a 6-2 count as minus-135 favorites. Tommy Hanson worked seven scoreless innings to collect the victory.

--Tampa Bay (41-24, +504) has the best road record in baseball – by far! The Rays are 23-9 on the road to date. They are in a first-place tie with the Yankees in the AL East.

--Totals have been a wash for the Braves, 32-32 overall and 13-13 in their home games. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has watched the ‘under’ go 32-30 overall, but the ‘over’ is 16-14 in its road tilts.

--The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. Eastern on Sun Sports for those in the Sunshine State.

**Phillies at Yankees**

--As of early this morning, most spots had the Yankees installed as minus-215 favorites with a total of 10 ‘under’ (minus-120). Gamblers can dodge the expensive straight price and back Joe Girardi’s team on the run line at a minus-105 price.

--New York (41-24, +555) remained in a first-place tie with the Rays in the AL East when both teams went down last night. The Yankees fell to 23-8 at home this year.

--Philadelphia (33-30, -681) captured a 6-3 win over the Yankees last night as a generous plus-190 underdog (paid $190 on $100 wagers). The Phillies took batting practice against New York’s A.J. Burnett, ripping him for six runs in just 3 1/3 innings. Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth both popped their 11th home runs of the season.

--Charlie Manuel’s squad improved to 17-17 on the road with last night’s triumph. The Phils are in third place in the NL East, 3 ½ games back of the loop-leading Braves.

--Manuel will give the starting nod to Kyle Kendrick (3-2, 4.80) tonight. He has been the king of the no-decision in six road assignments this year, compiling a 1-0 record and 3.55 ERA. Kendrick, who is 27-16 with a 4.69 lifetime ERA, is facing the Yankees for the first time.

--Andy Pettitte (8-1, 2.46) continues to make a strong push for a place on the AL’s All-Star roster. The veteran lefty is 6-1 with a 2.84 ERA in eight home starts in 2010. Pettitte owns a 2-2 record and 3.67 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies.

--Werth is only 1-for-13 (.077) against Pettitte with the lone hit being a home run. Chase Utley is 1-for-7 (.143) against the left-hander, while Howard is 1-for-9 (.111).

--The ‘over’ is 18-14 for the Yankees at home, 34-34 overall.

--The ‘under’ has been a lucrative play in Philadelphia games all year, going 38-27 overall. The ‘under’ is 21-16 in its road outings. The ‘under’ is also on a 17-8-1 run in the Phillies’ last 26 games.

--This is game is slated to start at 7:05 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--At the age of 47, Philadelphia’s Jamie Moyer became the oldest pitcher to beat the Yankees in the Phils’ 6-3 win in the Bronx last night. The southpaw worked eight strong innings, giving up just three hits and a pair of earned runs.

--The ‘over’ is an MLB-best 45-24 in Arizona games. The Diamondbacks, who play at Boston tonight, have watched the ‘over’ go 26-11 in their road games.

--The ‘under’ is an MLB-best 39-24 in Baltimore games.

--Colorado has thrived in day games with a 15-8 record. The Rockies play at Minnesota today at 1:05 p.m. Eastern. They will give the ball to Ubaldo Jimenez, who has produced incredible numbers to date. Jimenez has a 12-1 record and 1.16 ERA.

--White Sox LHP Mark Buehrle will take the bump against Pittsburgh tonight. The left-hander is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four career starts against the Pirates.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-17-2010, 11:39 AM

Interleague Insight

In 1997, teams from the American League and National League competed in regular season, head-to-head competition. Since then, the AL has somewhat dominated interleague play with an overall record of 1,650-1,515 (52%). In the past three seasons (including brief play in 2010), the AL has an even more impressive track record of 457-363 (56%).

The American League has been profitable from a betting standpoint in just about every way you look at it during the past three seasons. They are winning 58% of their home games and 53% percent on the road.

We are just about halfway through interleague play this season (as of Wednesday, June 16) and the National League is keeping pace with their American League counterparts, 54 games to 52. (Thanks in large part to a combined record of 15-4 from the Mets, Cardinals, and Rockies.)

Some teams have been much more profitable than others. Here’s a look at some of the best teams in terms of interleague play from the past three seasons.

The Detroit Tigers have the best interleague record of any team since 2007, with 42 wins and just 19 losses. They were just 72-81 since interleague play began, but have straightened out and are one of the most profitable teams in the MLB when playing against the NL. And they are already 5-2 this season with a series against Washington coming.

The Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins are just slightly behind the Tigers but also very profitable. Minnesota has a 41-20 record and Los Angeles is 42-20 since 2007. Interleague success is no shock for the Twins; they have the 2nd best all-time record against the NL, just one win behind the Yankees.

A surprisingly profitable team is the Kansas City Royals. KC is 35-26 over the past three seasons and already 4-3 this year. They are worth a look as an underdog when facing the NL.

The National League is filled with sub .500 teams in all-time interleague play. Colorado, St. Louis, New York, Atlanta, and Florida are the only five teams (out of 16) that have a winning record against the AL, and the Marlins boast the best overall record of 111-93.

Only the Rockies and Mets have had success against the AL during the past three seasons – “success” loosely defined. Colorado is 33-22 since 2007 and is already 5-2 this year. New York is 28-24, and wouldn’t be on this list if it weren’t for a hot start in 2010. They have the best interleague record in MLB so far with 6 wins and just 1 loss.

Switching our focus from sides to totals; the ‘under’ has had a minor edge in all interleague games, going 375-342-39, (52%).

One might think that the ‘under’ would have more success in games played at National League parks (AL pitchers are forced to bat); but contrary to popular belief the numbers only slightly favor the ‘under’ (53%).

Interleague play continues through June 27th.

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The Bum's Thursday's Best Bets MLB-NBA-WNBA !

The Bum's Thursday's Best Bets MLB-NBA-WNBA !

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