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**StarDust Bum** · 06-14-2010, 06:08 PM

Big trend contradicts big line in M's-Cards' duel

ESPN’s Monday night baseball game of the week finds the Mariners visiting St. Louis for just the second time ever. Considering the Cardinals have stud pitcher Adam Wainwright on the hill, are -280 favorites according to Sportsbook.com, and the M’s have lost eight of their last 10 games, you’d think the hosts are a certain winner, right? Sure, but perhaps an unusually strong ******* Power Trend favoring Seattle might sway your thinking.

Before getting into the powerful trend worthy of your consideration, let’s take a look at tonight’s matchup.

The Cardinals are surely happy to be home following a difficult road trip, especially with Wainwright set to take the mound. He looks to improve to 6-0 in as many starts at Busch Stadium as the Cardinals return to interleague play to face the struggling Mariners.

St. Louis (34-29) finds itself chasing first-place Cincinnati in the NL Central following its 1-5 trip, which featured offensive problems and shaky pitching.

The team hit .227 on the trip, with sluggers Albert Pujols(notes) and Matt Holliday(notes) combining to go 6 for 44 (.136) with three RBIs. He helped erase a three-run deficit in the ninth, but the Cardinals lost in the bottom of the inning on a walk-off home run by Chris Young.

Wainwright has been consistently brilliant at home, and he notched his first career shutout there June 4 with a two-hitter in an 8-0 win over Milwaukee. He’s 5-0 with a 1.62 ERA and two complete games at Busch Stadium this year.

The Cardinals have won nine of 13 in St. Louis, and they swept Seattle in the Mariners’ only previous visit from July 2-4, 2004.

Seattle (24-39) is scuffling on its road trip. The last-place Mariners are 9-22 on the road, and they had lost five straight before avoiding a sweep at San Diego with Sunday’s 4-2 win.

Seattle will have Luke French (0-0, 6.35) on the mound for his first start in the majors this season.

The 24-year-old dominated minor league hitters for Triple-A Tacoma this year, going 6-2 with a 1.93 ERA in 11 starts. He had a 6.38 ERA in seven starts for the Mariners in 2009, though.

Seattle has lost both of its interleague series this season - both to the Padres - while the Cardinals took two of three from the visiting Los Angeles Angels from May 21-23. St. Louis has won three of four home series against AL opponents.

It would seem the Cardinals are set to cruise this evening. However, one particular ******* Power Trend may be worth noting. It reads as follows:

SEATTLE is 12-3 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in its L15 road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better. The average score was SEATTLE 5.5, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 2*)

Now everyone knows how successful the American League has been over its N.L. counterparts in interleague play, but this trend has far outperformed that pace. The Mariners’ offense has produced 5.5 runs per game on the road against some of the National League’s best pitchers.

Still, Seattle has won just three of 20 games as a road underdog this year and the ******* Game Estimator calls for a 5.2-2.3 win for the Cardinals. The ******* Power Line shows St. Louis should be a -308 favorite.

Is it worth laying the big number at Sportsbook.com tonight, or are the Cardinals’ recent offensive struggles and the powerful ******* trend signs of a worthy underdog? Find out tonight at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-14-2010, 06:12 PM

Monday Four Play

It’s a light night in Major League Baseball on Monday with four games of interleague action set to go off. We’ll start off in St. Louis with the Cards hosting the Mariners, then have three late night tests to keep us from sleeping. Let’s break it all down.

Mariners (23-39, -1,841) at Cardinals (34-28, -584) – 7:10 p.m. EDT, ESPN

Before the start of this season, this series looked like it would be a battle of division leaders. What we got instead is a basement dweller and a team that is playing too inconsistent to keep a hold of first place.

Seattle is floundering around in last place in the American League West thanks to a lineup that has no pop (.243 team batting average, 34 home runs) and so-so starting pitchers (two hurlers with an earned run average above 6.00).

Luke French (0-0, 6.35) takes over Ian Snell’s spot in the Mariners’ starting rotation on Monday night. The southpaw gave up four earned runs in 5.1 innings of relief work of Snell last Wednesday in a 12-2 drubbing at the hands of the Rangers in Arlington. French did work as a starter midway through the 2009 campaign for both the M’s and Tigers, going 4-5 with a 5.29 ERA. The ‘over’ is 4-1-1 in his five career road starts.

The Cardinals are coming into this game having won just four of their last 10 games of the season to stay behind Cincinnati in the National League Central. Adam Wainwright (8-4, 2.30) is just the man you want to send out to the hill to get things back on track for St. Louis. Wainwright has been absolutely automatic with a 5-0 record and two complete games to go along with a 1.62 ERA at Busch Stadium.

The Mariners have been awful on the road this year, evidenced by an 8-22 record. Tighten that up to the M’s being road pups and you’ll see they are 3-17, including a five-game slide.

St. Louis has gone 18-10 as a home favorite this season, winning seven of its last 10 in this role. The ‘over’ is 6-3-1 in those 10 battles.

Blue Jays (34-28, +1,019) at Padres (37-25, +1,558) – 10:05 p.m. EDT

Perhaps it was only a matter of time before the Blue Jays’ offense dried up.

Toronto has knocked the ball out of the park 99 times during the season to lead all big league clubs. In the Jays’ last five games, however, they have hit just two home runs. Not a good sign for a team that is averaging 1.5 homers per game. It makes you wonder if they might be sellers when the trade deadline comes around.

Shaun Marcum (5-3, 3.38) can’t hit home runs for the Jays, but he can keep it close enough for a little small ball to matter. Marcum is aiming to avenge his last start last Wednesday in Tampa, allowing seven earned runs in four innings of work in a 10-1 rout by the Rays. Toronto responds well when he pitches on the road this year, evidenced by a 4-2 mark.

San Diego doesn’t have the bats that the Blue Jays possess, but they do have great pitching. And they’ll be sending out Jon Garland (6-4, 2.81) to open this series. Garland may have lost his last two starts on the road, but both were solid efforts. The Padres’ ace has gone 3-0 with a 1.15 ERA at Petco Park this season. And the Pads have gone 5-1 overall in his six home starts.

The Pads have gone 10-6 as home faves this season, winning four straight in this role. The ‘under’ is 8-6-2 as well.

Toronto has gone 6-12 as a road pup against NL West foes since 2002 with the ‘under’ going 13-5.

Brewers (26-35, -967) at Angels (35-30, +548) – 10:05 p.m. EDT

The Brewers are hitting the road for six games after having a relatively successful six-game homestand. Milwaukee has not enjoyed its trips out of town as of late, winning just four of its last 14 road tests.

For the Brew Crew to start this road trip on a positive, Randy Wolf (4-6, 5.31) will need to step it up on the mound. Wolf has lost seven of his last nine starts this season. Unfortunately for Milwaukee backers, Wolf is 2-4 with a 5.66 ERA in six road appearances this season.

The Halos are hot on the Rangers’ heels in the AL West right now, having won eight of their last 10 games. And Los Angeles is expecting to stay on a tear with Joe Saunders (5-6, 4.35) on the mound. The Angels’ southpaw has helped guide them to six wins in his last seven starts. The only major issue to keep in mind is that Saunders is 1-5 with an ERA of 6.34 in seven home starts in 2010.

Milwaukee has dropped four of six road matches against the AL West since 2002 with the ‘under’ going 3-2-1.

Los Angeles is 13-10 as a home “chalk” this year. However, they have won 12 of its past 18 games in Orange County. The Angels have also won four of their last five as home faves against teams from the NL Central.

Orioles (16-45, -2,345) at Giants (34-27, +254) – 10:15 p.m. EDT

The final game of the even is for those bettors that really have nothing else better to do.

There isn’t too much good to talk about when the Orioles are being discussed. This is a unit that has gone 12-28 since the calendar turned over to May. And Baltimore has gone 3-15 in 18 road matches during that time. Chris Tillman (0-2, 5.54) will take the start for the O’s. He’s coming off a good outing against the Yanks on June 9, holding them to two earned runs in six innings of work.

San Francisco will open this series up with Jonathan Sanchez (4-5, 2.82) getting the start. The Giants haven’t have gone 3-5 in his last eight starts. Sanchez has done quite well in the majority of those outings, just being plagued by the inability of the Giants to reach home plate. He is 3-2 with a 2.82 ERA in six starts at AT&T Park.

The ‘under’ is a sound investment for this game as the Orioles have seen it go 21-9-1 when they’re posted as road underdogs.

The Giants are a great home favorite, evidenced by an 18-8 record this season. Against the run line (-1 ½-runs), however, San Fran is just 12-14. They have won five of its last seven matches as a home favorite against the AL East.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-14-2010, 06:13 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday

Brewers at Angels – The Brewers are 0-5 since April 27, 2010 when Randy Wolf starts after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $620 when playing against. The Angels are 6-0 since July 22, 2009 when Joe Saunders starts vs a team that lost their starters last two starts for a net profit of $675.

Mariners at Cardinals – The Mariners are 0-10 since June 30, 2009 as a road 140+ dog after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Mariners are 0-7 since May 08, 2009 as a road dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Cardinals are 10-0 since July 01, 2009 as a home favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $1000

Orioles at Giants – The Orioles are 0-9 since May 21, 2009 as a 170+ dog after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Orioles are 5-0 since September 11, 2009 vs a team that has won at least their last three games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $790.

Blue Jays at Padres – The Blue Jays are 5-0 since June 16, 2009 on the road when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $745. The Padres are 10-0 since May 05, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $1055. The Padres are 6-0 since April 09, 2009 at home after a loss in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings for a net profit of $645.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-14-2010, 06:15 PM

Weekly IL Notes

Interleague play is alive and kicking all around baseball with four rounds of series coming up over the next two weeks. There are many matchups that fans aren't used to, which can turn into an advantage for bettors with potential soft lines. We'll take a look at several teams this week that have a lot to gain and others that may struggle in interleague play.

New York Mets

The Mets have been inconsistent at times this season, but Jerry Manuel's club is solid when it comes to facing American League opponents on the road. After sweeping a three-game set from the Orioles at Camden Yards this past weekend, the Mets own a 12-6 mark on the highway in interleague play since 2008. New York heads to Cleveland on Tuesday for a three-game series with the Indians, followed by a rematch with the Yankees in the Bronx this weekend.

Chicago White Sox

The Pale Hose picked up a series win over the Cubs at Wrigley Field, improving Ozzie Guillen's team to 13-8 the last 21 interleague road games. The Sox finished last season at 6-3 on the highway against NL opponents, while cashing the 'under' in 11 of the last 15 interleague road contests. Chicago battles a pair of below .500 teams on the road this week, heading to Pittsburgh on Tuesday and Washington on Friday. The Sox will face rookie sensation Stephen Strasburg in the series opener against the Nationals, Chicago's first trip ever to the nation's capital in interleague action.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The D-Backs are sitting in the cellar of the NL West, but are 2-1 in interleague play after capturing a home series against the Blue Jays last month. Arizona heads to Boston on Tuesday night, as the Snakes have been a terrific 'fade' on the road against AL competition, going 5-10 since 2008. Unfortunately for the D-Backs, ace Dan Haren is not slated to pitch at Fenway Park, as three of those five wins in interleague play have come with the righty on the mound. Haren will start in the series opener at Detroit on Friday night against Armando Galarraga.

Houston Astros

It's never easy for any team to walk into Yankee Stadium and come out with a victory, as the Astros were swept by New York this past weekend. Houston is now 6-12 the last 18 interleague games on the road, while the 'under' has cashed 12 times. The Astros head to Kansas City for three games starting Tuesday, but luckily for Houston, it misses Royals' ace Zack Greinke, who won Sunday at Cincinnati. Houston sends out Felipe Paulino, Roy Oswalt, and Brett Myers at Kauffman Stadium, as the Astros are 8-5 the last 13 games to dig out of last place in the NL Central.

Philadelphia Phillies

The two-time NL Champs have cleaned up against competition from their league, but the Phillies have had their issues against the American League. Philadelphia is 18-32 versus AL squads since 2008, including a 10-13 mark on the road. Following Sunday's 5-3 win at Boston, the 'under' has hit in 15 of the last 23 away interleague contests. Things don't get easier for the Phillies the next two series, battling the Yankees and Twins this week. Philadelphia heads to the Bronx for a rematch of last season's World Series, as five of six meetings finished 'under' the total. Home is where the problems are for the Phillies, compiling a 9-19 ledger against AL opponents the last three seasons with the Twins coming to town on Friday.

Oakland Athletics

The A's have struggled on the road against NL competition since the start of last season, losing nine of 12 games, including all three at San Francisco this past weekend. Seven times in this span, Oakland has been held to two runs or less, with five of those occurrences coming against the Giants. The A's make two trips through the Midwest this week, starting in Chicago on Tuesday against the Cubs. Oakland invades Wrigley Field for only the second time with the first meeting coming back in 2004. The A's wrap up the week in St. Louis, as the Cardinals are 5-1 in six lifetime matchups with Oakland.

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