Coaching Carousel

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I’ve identified 11 coaching changes at major programs and we’re ready to rank ‘em and discuss at length, so here we go…

#1: Brian Kelly (Notre Dame) -- The Irish struck out in trying to hire Urban Meyer several years ago, settling instead for Charlie Weis. As we know, that didn’t go so well. This time around, Notre Dame got it right, plucking the hottest coach on the market away from Cincinnati. Eighteen months ago, I wrote that “Tennessee will regret not hiring Brian Kelly instead of Lane Kiffin for decades.” I thoroughly stand by that remark. Kelly has done an outstanding job in prior tenures at Central Michigan and Cincinnati, where he led the Bearcats to an unbeaten regular season in 2009. The only blemish on his resume is so-so recruiting classes the last few years, but now he has a great product in Notre Dame football to sell.

#2: Tommy Tuberville (Texas Tech) -- I’m still floored that Tuberville and former Tennessee head coach Phil Fulmer didn’t generate more interest from other schools in their coaching searches. When the Mike Leach fiasco went down, however, Tuberville was wisely hired by the Red Raiders. The dude just knows how to coach. He won at Ole Miss and won big at Auburn, including a 13-0 record in 2004. Tuberville has beaten Urban Meyer in both head-to-head meetings when ‘Tubs’ was working with inferior talent. Known in some parts as ‘The Riverboat Gambler,’ Tuberville was a great hire by Texas Tech. He’ll have job security at the West Texas school and won’t have to constantly be paranoid by an administration run by someone (Bobby Lowder) out to get him.

#3: Skip Holtz (South Florida) -- Very unfortunate situation at USF with the way Jim Leavitt went out after building the program up from scratch. But the Bulls had to move on and did so by hiring Holtz, who had built a consistent winner at East Carolina. Obviously, he’s got the last name and solid coaching DNA.

#4: Doc Holliday (Marshall) -- Holliday has been one of the country’s premier recruiters for many years. There might not be a coach in America who has more connections in South Florida, where he’s plucked players from Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties up to West Va., North Carolina St. and Florida when he was the recruiting coordinator at those schools. Remember Chuck Amato’s shocking success at N.C. St. at this time a decade ago? Other than Philip Rivers, no one deserves more credit for the Wolfpack’s brief rise up the ACC food chain than Holliday. He left N.C. St. for Florida in 2005 and was an integral part of the Gators’ success under Urban Meyer. Holliday came back to West Va. to work under Bill Stewart the last two seasons before getting his first head-coaching gig at Marshall. Bobby Pruett proved you can win at the school located in Huntington, WV. Pruett, you may recall, produced NFL players like Randy Moss, Eric Kresser, Chad Pennington, Byron Leftwich and Darius Watts. Give Holliday a few years to bring in his players and the Thundering Herd might climb to the top of Conference USA. However, he’ll remain a favorite in Morgantown and when Stewart’s days are done, Marshall could have a hard time keeping Holliday from returning to the Mountaineers.

#5: Charlie Strong (Louisville) -- Other than a forgettable one-game stretch as Florida’s interim head coach after Ron Zook was fired, the only knock critics can possibly have on Strong is his lack of head coaching experience. But when it comes to preparation as an assistant, Strong’s resume has been ready for a major head coaching job for several years. He’s worked under some of the greatest coaches in NCAA history like Steve Spurrier, Lou Holtz and Urban Meyer. He’s worked at programs with rabid fan bases like Notre Dame, South Carolina, Ole Miss and Florida. Strong was defensive coordinator for a pair of national-title teams at UF and has always proven to be an elite recruiter. Bobby Petrino went 41-9 during a glorious four-year tenure before Steve Kragthorpe ran this program into the ground the last three years. Strong is left to pick up the pieces, but it says here that he’ll get the job done.

#6: Joker Phillips (Kentucky) -- The head coach-in-waiting scenario seems to have worked out just right at Kentucky. Phillips becomes the second African-American head coach in SEC history (assuming you don’t count Strong’s one-game stretch at UF) after Sylvester Croom at Mississippi State. He’s served as UK’s recruiting coordinator and offensive coordinator and also played at UK. Like Strong, this is Phillips’ first head-coaching gig, but that’s the only knock any critic could have on him.

#7: Jimbo Fisher (FSU) -- There were certainly chemistry issues galore on the FSU coaching staff the last few years. Part of the staff, including long-timers Chuck Amato and Mickey Andrews, wanted Bobby Bowden to remain in power indefinitely, while others were ready for the legend to step aside. The results, or lack thereof, and then the administration took care of the latter. So now Fisher gets his shot after ho-hum performances as the team’s offensive coordinator since he came to Tallahassee from LSU. He did do an outstanding job with his first recruiting class and I like the hiring of defensive coordinator Mark Stoops. We’ll see how it goes for Fisher, but I certainly have my doubts.

#8: Turner Gill (Kansas) -- Gill nearly landed the Auburn job in 2009 after leading Buffalo to the MAC title. His career record in four seasons with the Bulls was 20-30, but we have to remember that when he took over Buffalo might have bee the nation’s worst program. Obviously, Gill is extremely familiar with the Big 12 after playing at Nebraska and then spending 13 seasons on the Cornhuskers’ coaching staff. He has vowed to recruit, recruit and then recruit some more. Gill inherits a KU program that’s in a lot better shape than when Mark Mangino came to Lawrence from Oklahoma.

#9: Butch Jones (Cincinnati) -- For the second time, Jones is following in Brian Kelly’s footsteps. First, he took over at Central Michigan and to his credit, kept the good times rolling. Granted, he’s had a star QB in Dan LeFevour for all but two of his career games as a head coach, but that tandem produced a stellar 27-13 overall record and a 20-3 mark in MAC play. Also, CMU went into East Lansing and beat Michigan St. last year. Don’t anticipate the Bearcats going unbeaten in the regular season anytime soon, however, especially after losing QB Tony Pike and All-American WR Mardy Gilyard.

#10: Derek Dooley (Tennessee) -- This coaching search turned into a laughable episode, at least for UT’s SEC adversaries. After taking Heisman treatment (getting denied) by a slew of potential candidates, AD Mike Hamilton settled for La. Tech head coach and AD Derek Dooley who, like Holtz, certainly has the DNA to get the job done. But he certainly seemed like a major reach at the time, especially when you think about what a coveted job this is. Nevertheless, I started to come around somewhat on Dooley during his introductory presser. For starters, the Vols have a better coach in Dooley than they had in his predecessor – period! Then again, you can only go up from that chump. But in Dooley you also get quite a bit of Nick Saban, who has enjoyed roaring success in the SEC. And that’s another thing – Dooley is obviously quite familiar with the league, growing up in Vince’s house in Athens and spending a number of years with Saban at LSU. UT also has a class act running the show now, and the program doesn’t need to worry about getting placed on probation, something that seemed a near certainty at this time a year ago. I’m rooting for Dooley to be successful, but UT fans have to be patient. The personnel is just not up to par with the Florida’s, Alabama’s and LSU’s right now.

#11: Lane Kiffin (USC) -- Speaking of Lame Chafin’, the passive-aggressive scoundrel went and did it again – somehow landing yet another high-profile job without accomplishing a thing as a head coach with the Oakland Raiders and the Tennessee Vols. In fact, his most noticeable achievements are the six secondary NCAA violations his staff committed at UT, in addition to the ongoing investigation for sending female students to high school games of UT recruits (a blatant violation of NCAA rules). What made Kiffin’s hire even more stunning is the fact that the NCAA is expected to drop the hammer on the Trojans soon, possibly as early as this week. Therefore, to hire a coach who was on the staff during the Reggie Bush days and one that’s also flirted with NCAA sanctions in the 14 months prior to his hire, is seemingly an act of disrespect to the NCAA. Whatever the case, we will continue to credit Kiffin with one thing and that’s assembling a great staff. Granted, that starts with his father Monte, who is perhaps the best defensive coordinator to ever step on the sidelines of a football field. And, warts and all, recruiting coordinator Ed Orgeron does bring in the blue-chippers. However, let me clearly warn USC fans that the Pete Carroll Era is over and to think that Kiffin’s staff will simply keep the ball rolling is delusional.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--I left new Virginia head coach Mike London out of this discussion simply because I’m not familiar enough with the former Richmond head coach. His tenure at UVA starts by facing his former team, the Spiders. Then the Cavs go out West to face USC. Remember, the Trojans recently beat the Wahoos by a 52-7 count in Charlottesville.

--One of the other big winners in the coaching carousel that we haven’t mentioned yet is Duke. When David Cutcliffe made what I thought was a brilliant decision to turn down Tennessee, the Vols were left stunned. And the Blue Devils were left rejoicing. Cutcliffe has done an outstanding job since taking over in Durham and bettors should continue to look at Duke in big underdog situations on Cut’s watch.

--Hottest Hot Seats for 2010:
1-Rich Rodriguez (Michigan)
2-Dan Hawkins (Colorado)
3-Ron Zook (Illinois)
4-Ralph Friedgen (Maryland)
5-Dennis Erickson (Arizona St.)

--I left Georgia’s Mark Richt and LSU’s Les Miles off of that list but make no mistake, both men had better run a tight ship in 2010. Richt has done an outstanding job at UGA overall, but the program seems to have hit a lull the last two seasons and is still getting beaten like a drum by arch-rival Florida. Perhaps most importantly, Richt was hired by Dooley and AD Damon Evans seems to be itching to bring in his own man. As for The Mad Hatter, well, he showed his lack of coaching acumen in the Tigers’ loss at Ole Miss last year. If Michigan comes calling again, he’ll say ‘yes’ and they won’t lose a wink of sleep about it on the Bayou.

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ACC Preview

One of only two conferences (along with the SEC) with five teams in the preseason Top 25, the ACC will brace itself in 2010 when they take on the toughest schedule in the nation against opponents that compiled a winning percentage of .604 last year. In fact, only the PAC 10 of the traditional ‘Big Six’ conferences faced opponents who won more than 50 percent of their games in 2009.

Let’s make this clear: this conference takes a back seat to none when it comes to stocking the NFL as, over the last four years, the ACC has led all conferences in terms of most players selected in the first-round of the NFL Draft (30).

And it doesn’t stop there. Miami was one of only two teams (along with Notre Dame) honored this year by the AFCA as having the highest graduation rates in its football program of any schools in the nation, graduating 100% of their players for the class of 2002. It was the first time Miami has been honored.

It’s all cash-and-carry in 2010 as, for the first time in ACC history, five 1,000-Yard Rushers return. And with Virginia Tech – the top defensive team in the land since 2004 - anchoring this loop, there is a lot to like about the ACC.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

Atlantic Division

BOSTON COLLEGE – *8/6
TEAM THEME: FOOL US ONCE
Thanks to a defense that ranked 14th against the run and 19th in total points allowed, the Eagles surpassed all expectations in 2009. Picked to finish last in the ACC Atlantic Division, the Eagles rewarded their backers with an eight-win season and an Emerald Bowl appearance. That was without 2008 defensive player of the year Mark Herzlich, who sat out the entire season with bone cancer. Herzlich is back and he joins ACC defensive rookie of the year Luke Kuechly, who led the conference in tackles per game, to anchor a solid linebacking corps. The defensive effort was really no surprise considering HC Frank Spaziani’s roots. In fact, the winning season should have come as no surprise as Virginia Tech is the only ACC team with more wins than BC over the past four seasons. Another winning season in Chestnut Hill? Don’t be surprised.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. NC State (10/9

CLEMSON – *7/6
TEAM THEME - HOPE ‘SPILLERS’ OVER
When a team loses a star RB like C.J. Spiller to the 1st round of the NFL draft, along with its top three WR’s from the previous season, it generally spells doom. Especially when that team goes toe-to-toe with no less than seven bowlers from the previous season. But Dabo Swinney is not a doomsayer and he refuses to believe his team is primed to take a step back from last year’s nine-win effort. Swinney, in fact, sees the glass being more than half full, noting four of his top five tacklers from last year’s swarming defense are back. So is QB Kyle Parker, who won nine games as a redshirt freshman last season, including a Music City Bowl win over Kentucky. It’s obvious Swinney is from the Brylcreem school of coaching – he believes ‘a little dab will do ya.’ Another nine-win season? Now wouldn’t that be debonair!
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Florida St (11/13)

FLORIDA STATE - *10/6
TEAM THEME: JIMBO-LAYA
It’s official: legendary coach Bobby Bowden has finally retired and will now be working full-time on his great-grandfathering skills as he hands the keys over to Jimbo Fisher. Fisher needs to improve on a recipe that has seen the Seminoles go 16-16 in ACC play over the last four seasons. QB Christian Ponder returns for his senior season after a shoulder injury ended his 2009 campaign after nine games. Despite the early exit, Ponder still led the ACC in total offense and with nearly the entire offensive starting cast back, don’t be surprised to see the exciting QB on more than a few Heisman ballots. With five Top 25 foes dotting this season’s schedule, including road trips to Norman and Miami, it may just take a Heisman-like effort for the Cracker Barrel folks to forget about ol’ Bobby.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida (11/27)

MARYLAND – 7/5
TEAM THEME: SHELL-SHOCKED
After racing out to a 31-7 record in his first three years, it’s been a slow demise for Ralph Friedgen seeing that his Turtles have posted four losing seasons in the last six years. A season-ending seven-loss skein sealed their 2009 fate and as a result, snapped a three-year bowl streak. Despite a scoring and pass defense that was the worst in the ACC last year, half of the Terrapins’ 10 losses were by a meager 3.4 PPG. Thus, there’s still some hope in College Park – but a slimmed-down ‘Fridge’ will have to start serving up more victories in order to satisfy the faithful. The Terps will rely on RB Da’rel Scott (one of five 1,000-yard rushers returning to the ACC this season) to pick up the pace. A mid-season stretch that finds them on the road in four of five games will likely decide if these Turtles can sprint to the finish.
PLAY ON: as DD dog vs. Clemson (10/16)

NORTH CAROLINA STATE – *7 5
TEAM THEME: DANCING WITH THE STARS
Along with Buffalo, NC State is the only FBS team in the nation that improved its numbers on both sides of the ball while declining both SU and ATS in 2009. That almost always signals improvement the following season. Thus, we’ll be dancing with these Wolves – especially with QB Russell Wilson donning the cleats. The junior has tossed for 48 TD’s and run for eight others in his two seasons at Raleigh and is on course to break all of Philip Rivers’ records. His dance partner is WR Owen Spencer, who broke the ACC record for the second straight year in yards per reception (25.5 – tops in the nation). The choreographer of this group is HC Tom O’Brien. O’Brien, himself, has stepped on some toes along the way, posting an 84-65-2 overall ATS mark, including 56-38-1 ATS in conference play and 17-2-1 ATS versus foes off back-to-back ATS wins. We like those moves.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida St (10/28)

WAKE FOREST – 6/7
TEAM THEME: TURNOVER IS FAIR PLAY
After four consecutive winning seasons in which they averaged more than eight wins per year, the Demons fell below the surface with a 5-7 effort in 2009. That makes them a genuine ‘Mission Team’ in 2010 and we’ll be more than anxious to support them in this revenge year. Unfortunately, we’ll be doing so without the services of 4-year starter QB Riley Skinner, who totaled nearly 10,000 yards of offense in his career. An even scarier thought is that no QB on the roster has completed a collegiate pass. However, there’s more than one way to ‘skin’ an opponent and the stat that grabs our attention is quite simple: in 2009, the Deacons were a negative -5 in turnovers after being +13, +9 and +17 the previous three seasons. Skinner or not, look for the Deacons to ‘Wake’ up in 2010.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida St (9/25)

Coastal Division

DUKE – 9/6
TEAM THEME: DEVILS GET THEIR DUE
Like it is for the devil down below, things are looking up in Durham. Three conference wins in 2009 were one more than Duke had won the previous three years combined. In fact, the nine wins tallied in two years under HC David Cutcliffe is only one less than the Blue Devils won the first eight years of the decade. The loss of QB Thaddeus Lewis, only the second signal caller in ACC history to toss for more than 10,000 yards, will hurt. However, nine other offensive starters return from a unit that averaged over 25 PPG, including three wideouts who accounted for over 2,400 yards and 15 TD’s. Not to play Devil’s advocate, but one fact is certain if these cellar-dwellers expect to surface: Cutcliffe will need to avoid a perpetual season-ending slide that has seen Duke go 3-37 in each of the final four games of the season since 2000.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Army (9/25)

GEORGIA TECH – *6/8
TEAM THEME: RUSH TO JUDGEMENT
With Al Groh handling the defensive coordinator duties, the Jackets coaching staff now boasts the last three ACC Coaches of the Year. Offensive-minded HC Paul Johnson, winner of the last two awards, will rely on Groh to shore up a defense that allowed over 25 PPG and almost 5 yards per rush. Despite the defensive deficiencies, the Jackets still recorded 11 wins – the most since their 1990 national championship season. The offense has no such concerns as QB Josh Nesbitt is back at the helm. Nesbitt is the perfect caretaker for Johnson’s triple-option offense, becoming only the second QB in ACC history to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season. Despite losing Jonathon Dwyer, last season’s second-ranked rushing attack (295 YPG) shouldn’t miss a beat as Roddy Jones (7.7 YPC) and Anthony Allen (26 career TD’s) return to Atlanta. Looks like another ACC title ‘run’ for the Ramblin’ Wreck.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Virginia Tech (11/4)

MIAMI, FLA – *6/8
TEAM THEME: PUNCH AND JACORY
A Canes conundrum occurred last year when QB Jacory Harris evolved as the full-time starter and, despite playing hurt throughout the 2nd-half of the season, proceeded to lead Miami to a 9-4 record, their most wins since 2005. What Randy Shannon learned is that there is little-to-no depth behind Harris and the fate of this season lies within his rail-thin frame. Like last year, the Canes will be tested early as three of Miami’s first four games will be on the road against teams that won bowl games last season. In fact, UM will take on no less than eight bowlers in 2010. Shannon will need to rely on the strength of this team – a defensive line that returns three starters along with 2009 projected starter Adewale Ojome, who missed the season with a broken jaw after a taking a punch from a teammate. If Harris can stay healthy, the Canes may deliver a few more knockout blows.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Clemson (10/2)

NORTH CAROLINA – *10/9
TEAM THEME: WELL-HEELED
While our favorite meaning of the word ‘loaded’ comes courtesy of our local watering hole, we’ll use Webster’s version to describe the 2010 Tar Heels: containing bullets or other ammunition and ready to fire. And ready they are! Ten starters are back on offense, including virtually every OL starter that went down at one time or another to injuries. Nine starters are back from a defense that has combined to make a total of 234 starts and held 13 opponents to 94 YPG below their total offensive average. Included in those not-so ‘baby’ blues are all four senior DB’s and DE Robert Quinn, the ACC leader in sacks. In fact, five all-star defensive candidates decided to forego the NFL draft to return to Chapel Hill. If this team stays healthy and can overcome a top-heavy schedule ‘loaded’ with nine winning opponents, they might force Webster to create a few new adjectives.
PLAY ON: vs. Georgia Tech (9/18)

VIRGINIA – *6/7
TEAM THEME: LONDON BRIDGE
Back-to-back losing seasons spelled the end of the line for Al Groh. His replacement, Mike London, will try to bridge a winning season despite returning only six starters on each side of the ball. London coached the Richmond Spiders to a 24-5 mark the last two years, including a FCS championship in 2008. Ironically, the former UVA assistant makes his Cavaliers’ debut at home against the Spiders. He’ll need improvement out of senior triggerman Mark Veria, who started eight games last season – a not so proud accomplishment considering the Cavs’ offense finished dead last in the ACC in overall yardage and in scoring in 2009. A tough opening six-game schedule (4 bowlers, 1 FCS playoff team) and a treacherous five-game road slate (foes a combined 43-22), likely means the bridge keeps crumbling in Charlottesville.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Maryland (11/13)

VIRGINIA TECH – *8/5
TEAM THEME: AT-TEN-TION
Gobblers’ 10-plus wins in each of the last six seasons puts them in select company as only Texas can claim as many double-digit win seasons during that span. It’s been no surprise that it’s been the defense leading the way, allowing a nation-low 268 YPG since 2004. Thanks to the smothering ‘D’, the Hokies have amazingly not lost a game by more than 10 points in their last 39 tries. However, with only five defensive starters back, it may be the offense that actually carries the load in 2010. And loaded they are. QB Tyrod Taylor (5th in the nation in passing efficiency) returns along with RB’s Ryan Williams (1,655 yards – 3rd most by a freshman in ACC history) and Darren Evans (top back in the conference heading into 2009 before a season-ending knee injury). A season-opening victory over Boise State should put Beamer’s boys in the center of the BCS map.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Miami Fla (11/20)

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Who wants the Heisman?

As the summer rolls on, gamblers and fans alike are beginning to get a little antsy when it comes to gridiron action. With this anxiousness comes a lot of questions that have yet to be answered.

College football programs don’t have many questions at the moment since they already have a pretty good idea of where their players stack on the depth charts. Bettors, however, are forever in search of winners. And that dedication is leading to backing some players to win the glorified popularity contest for the Heisman Trophy.

This year’s breakdown of Heisman frontrunners is a lot more spread out that what we’ve seen in the past. That might have something to do with Tim Tebow off to heal the unwashed in the greater Denver, Colorado area.

Alabama’s Mark Ingram is the odds-on favorite to take home the hardware this season at 7/2 at BetED. I doubt we’re going to be seeing any arguments on that Ingram is at the top of the list since he won the trophy in 2009 by just 28 votes over Stanford’s Toby Gerhart.

Ingram is also returning to a Crimson Tide squad that won last year’s national championship, which is favored to do the same again in 2010. That will no doubt bolster his chances to win as the Heisman Trophy winner has been in all but two Bowl Championship Series games (Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, Orange and BCS Title Game) since the system’s inception in 1998. Out of those 10 winners, eight of them were showcased in the national championship game.

Here is the breakdown of the candidates for Heisman Trophy from BetED.

Odds To Win 2010 Heisman Trophy at BetED
Player School Odds
Andrew Luck Stanford +1500
BJ Daniels South Florida +5000
Blaine Gabbert Missouri +1200
Case Keenum Houston +1800
Damien Berry Miami, FL +1500
DeMarco Murray Oklahoma +1500
Dion Lewis Pittsburgh +1200
Jacory Harris Miami, FL +1200
Jacquizz Rodgers Oregon State +2000
Jerrod Johnson Texas A&M +5000
John Clay Wisconsin +1200
Jordan Todman Connecticut +5000
Josh Nesbitt Georgia Tech +5000
Kellen Moore Boise State +1500
LaMichael James Oregon +3000
Landry Jones Oklahoma +4000
Matt Barkley Southern California +1800
Mark Ingram Alabama +350
Noel Devine West Virginia +1200
Robert Griffin Baylor +6000
Ryan Mallett Arkansas +1000
Tate Forcier Michigan +3000
Terrelle Pryor Ohio State +500
Jake Locker Washington +1200
Christian Ponder Florida State +1500
Garrett Gilbert Texas +2500
Evan Royster Penn State +1200
How to read the Odds: Bet $100 on Mark Ingram to win $350



The first thing you’ll notice on that list is that you can’t find a wide receiver or any guy on defense. This list is entirely made up of quarterbacks and running backs. Before you start shouting about a conspiracy, the betting shops are just using common sense. Out of the 75 players to have won college football’s highest individual honor, 41 of them have been signal callers with 11 rushers picking up the award. It’s awful hard to ignore the fact that 70 percent of the winners have either played in the backfield or are under center.

So how do we pare down that list to make a better wager? You can eliminate players who are on teams that don’t have a legit chance of getting into the BCS. That means we can bid adieu to the likes of South Florida, Missouri, Oregon State, Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Oregon, Baylor, Arkansas and Washington.

Houston wasn’t a part of that list because its quarterback Case Keenum finished eighth in Heisman voting last season. That means Keenum (listed at 18/1) is a known quantity to the voters for the trophy. The only thing that I can see holding Keenum back here is that he would have to improve on his numbers of a year ago (70.3 completion percentage, 5,671 passing yards, 44 touchdowns), which is going to take one hell of an effort.

Another non-BCS getting Heisman love is Boise State’s Kellen Moore at 15/1. All he did was lead the Broncos to their second perfect record in the last four seasons with 3,536 passing yards, 39 touchdowns to just three interceptions. Moore has the most upside of any option on our list of potential winners. Boise State is expected to be a Top 5 team or better when the season starts off. And if the Broncos’ signal caller has a great season opener against Virginia Tech, getting him at this price will be a steal.

Ingram doesn’t offer us a lot of value this season since only Archie Griffin of the Buckeyes in the mid 70s to repeat. Alabama also has the unenviable task of working through one of the tougher conferences in the SEC. Plus, we have the knowledge of Tebow not being able to live up to the expectations levied upon him after winning the Heisman. It’s hard to find a way that the Tide’s top rushing threat can make history.

After his coming out party against the Ducks in the Rose Bowl, a lot of bettors like Terrelle Pryor’s (5/1) chances to take the next step at Ohio State. The Bucks have a great chance of winning it all this season, but Pryor hasn’t proven to be consistent under center during his time in Columbus. For every great outing he has had against Oregon, he’s screwed the pooch against the Boilermakers.

Penn State’s Evan Royster might give gamblers another outlet from the Big Ten to back at 12/1. Royster rushed for 1,169 yards and six scores last season and is poised to improve on those numbers this year with a green quarterback taking over the offense. What will be the litmus test for him is how he performs against a rebuilt defense in Tuscaloosa against the Crimson Tide on Sept. 11.

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Navy leans on Dobbs

We suspect there's a good chance we might eventually be talking about Navy's 2010 football team more than any other squad in the country this season. At least if we can believe QB Ricky Dobbs, who has already announced his plans to occupy the White House, maybe in 2032, maybe 2036. Maybe even 2040. We're not sure, but we don't think Terrelle Pryor or Mark Ingram have similar aspirations. And come to think of it, Dobbs as president might not be much more unlikely than the evolvement of the Midshipmen into one of the nation's most consistent winners. Indeed, Navy is looking for its eighth straight postseason appearance this fall, already locked into the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego if eligible. And to that, as the late, great Kentucky play-by-announcer Cawood Ledford used to say, "Write it down." Expect to see the Mids bowling in San Diego this December 23.

A bigger question AD Chet Gladchuk and all of those admirals who bleed Navy football might be asking themselves is how long they can hold on to HC Ken Niumatalolo, who has picked up where predecessor Paul Johnson left off three years ago. When Johnson moved his act to Georgia Tech after the 2007 regular season, Niumatalolo, a long-time Johnson protege, was immediately promoted to the top spot. The subsequent transition between the regimes was ever smoother than the transfer of power between the Bush and Obama White Houses, with the same spread option offense piling up big numbers, qualifying for bowl games and winning Commander-in-Chief Trophies (those streaks each now at 7 and counting). Moreover, the Mids continue to dominate Army, beating the hated Black Knights for the eighth straight time a year ago. We won't tell Niumatalolo that all he has to do to stay in the good graces of the Annapolis brass is to keep beating West Point, but his other successes are becoming harder and harder for the Mids to camouflage. After last year's 10-4 mark that included a near-upset at Ohio State, a second win over Notre Dame in three years, plus a blowout of Missouri in the Texas Bowl and matched Johnson's top Navy win total in 2004, Niumatalolo is going to start appearing as a target for schools looking for a new coach to jump-start their program. Again, as Cawood Ledford used to say, write it down.

For the moment, however, "Coach Ken" remains. And as consistent as American Idol appearing at the top of the TV ratings, expect another re-run this fall at Annapolis. There's no reason to expect the spread option to slow down with most of the featured components back for another go, including the aforementioned Dobbs, who hopes to enhance his future political prospects with a big senior season that could see him emerge as a Heisman candidate after rushing for 1203 yards and a staggering 27 TDs last fall. And Niumatalolo has some depth at QB thanks to jr. Kriss Proctor, who stepped in during spring when Dobbs was recuperating from a broken kneecap and demonstrated similar play-making abilities. Another senior, rugged Vince Murray, is the prototype Navy option FB and returns after posting 971 YR last fall. The dismissal of homerun threat slot-back Marcus Curry in spring might not be the concern it seems on the surface, as Niumataolo believes it is the deepest position on the team. Some reloading will be necessary on the OL but that is always standard operating procedure in Annapolis. Meanwhile, PK Joe Buckley is a unique threat, connecting on all 7 of his FG tries beyond 35 yards last fall.

Another positive development lately for the Mids is improved defense, a byproduct of the enhanced quicks on the platoon that our mid-Atlantic sources noted early in the Johnson regime and reflected in a +24 TO margin edge the past two years. Although shrewd d.c. Buddy Green will have to replace his entire LB corps, sources say not to expect much drop-off; soph Collin Sturdivant was a revelation in spring after moving to LB from DE. Plenty of playmakers remain, including 4-year starter S Wyatt Middleton, already named to the Lott Trophy watch list, and sr. CB Kevin Edwards, whose goal-line stop of Jimmy Clausen was a key play in the Notre Dame upset.

Summary...Expect more of the same from the Mids, consistent as clockwork the past seven years. Now, however, for the first time in recent memory, Navy does not expect to be a significant underdog in any of this season's games, all of which appear winnable. Might the Mids make dramatic bid for a BCS berth? Let's not get too carried away. But if they do, Ricky Dobbs' campaign for the White House in 2032 would get quite a head start!

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA hammers USC

The NCAA has dropped the hammer at Heritage Hall. On Thursday afternoon, the NCAA announced major sanctions against the USC football program.

Those sanctions include a two-year ban from postseason play, the loss of 30 scholarships and the loss of the 2004 BCS title. However, I won't be returning the money I won on the Trojans demolishing Oklahoma at the Orange Bowl for that now-vacated championship.

Of course, all of these penalties stem from Reggie Bush and his parents accepting thousands of dollars from would-be agents.

In short, the Trojans' dynastic run is over. There will be transfers galore and life for Lane Kiffin will be much tougher than he anticpated when he bolted Knoxville for Southern California.

Kiffin, a passive-aggressive scrub with a 12-21 career record as a head coach, is left looking like a fool here. Remember Mike Shula at Alabama or going back even further, Forrest Gregg at SMU? That's Kiffin, holding the remains of a program whose immediate future doesn't include bowl games or a chance to win any sort of championship.

Other dummies in this episode? We've got to include legendary defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, who ignorantly followed his son to SoCal. We can't leave out Seantrel Henderson, the nation's No. 1 recruit who signed on the dotted line even though he knew NCAA sanctions were looming.

The big winner? That's got to be Pete Carroll, who 'sold high' when he blazed out of Tinseltown for Seattle and NFL riches. He doesn't even get a slap on the wrist.

Meanwhile, everyone currently involved with the USC Trojans football program is left with a blistered rear end and an uncertain future.