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**StarDust Bum** · 06-09-2010, 11:17 PM

Thursday Tips

The Thursday baseball card is loaded with afternoon matchups all day, including veteran starting pitchers facing off against younger counterparts. The traditional baseball fans take a turn to the dark side on Friday when interleague play takes over for the next two weeks. Before we jump to Friday, let's start with Thursday's matinee action on the South Side of Chicago with the Tigers looking to close out the White Sox.

Tigers at White Sox - 2:10 PM EST

Chicago wraps up a nine-game homestand prior to its weekend showdown across town at Wrigley Field as the Sox try to close on a winning note. Ozzie Guillen's club has dropped five of the first seven games after squandering a 2-0 lead in Tuesday's 7-2 setback to the Tigers.

John Danks (4-5, 3.60 ERA) tries to bounce back after a pair of dreadful starts against the Indians and Rays. The Sox are 1-5 in Danks' last six starts, including three consecutive losses at home. In the three defeats to Cleveland, Los Angeles, and Toronto, Danks burned bettors as the lefty was listed as a $1.50 favorite or more each time. One of the issues in those losses was a lack of run support with the Sox averaging one run in each of those three games. The Tigers beat Danks twice last season, halting a four-game winning streak against Detroit dating back to 2007.

The Tigers counter with Max Scherzer (2-5, 6.66 ERA), who was knocked around by the Royals in his last start, allowing five earned runs in five innings of work. Scherzer has given up at least five earned runs in five of his last six outings, with the lone solid start coming against Oakland in a 14-strikeout performance. The righty, who was acquired from Arizona in the offseason, has seen the 'over' hit in five of his previous seven outings.

Detroit owns a 2-6 mark the last eight games as a road underdog, while winning consecutive away games just twice this season. Chicago hasn't been impressive as a home favorite this season, going 4-10 the previous 14 games as 'chalk' at U.S. Cellular Field.

Astros at Rockies - 3:10 PM EST

Houston and Colorado conclude a four-game set at Coors Field, as the Astros send out their ace Roy Oswalt to the mound. The Rockies play 10 of the next 13 games at home, looking to pick up some ground inside the tough NL West.

Oswalt (3-8, 3.22 ERA) looks to snap a two-game skid following home losses to the Nationals and Cubs. The Astros' veteran lasted less than three innings before being ejected against Washington, followed by a seven-inning outing versus Chicago in which Oswalt allowed six runs. His best starts have come on the road this season, compiling an away ERA of 0.82 in three starts on the highway (2-1). Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies shut out Oswalt on May 20 by a 4-0 count in Houston, the first loss for Oswalt in the last four starts against Colorado.

The Rockies trot out Jhoulys Chacin (3-4, 3.77 ERA) to the hill, going for his first win in three starts. Chacin has been on the wrong end of consecutive one-run losses to the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, despite striking out 15 batters in the two starts. The righty began the season by tossing scoreless gems against Los Angeles and San Francisco on the road, but Colorado is 1-4 in Chacin's last five outings.

The Astros have finished 'under' the total in six of the last eight road contests, while the Rockies have cashed the 'under' in nine of their previous 11 games overall.

Angels at Athletics - 3:35 PM EST

Two teams fighting it out atop the AL West finish up a four-game series in the Bay Area as the Halos send out Oakland slayer Ervin Santana. The Angels have won 11 of 14, including seven of their past nine games on the highway.

Santana (6-3, 3.29 ERA) has dominated the A's in his career, with the Angels winning eight of his last ten starts in this series. The righty delivered his 10th straight quality start against Oakland in a 12-3 home victory on May 15, scattering seven hits and three earned runs in six innings. Santana is 5-0 his last five starts overall, including road victories at Seattle, Kansas City, and Chicago.

One of the more surprising back-end starters in baseball takes the mound for Oakland with Trevor Cahill (4-2, 3.21 ERA) making his ninth start. After back-to-back 'overs' in his first two outings, the 'under' is 6-1 in Cahill's last seven starts. Despite picking up a no-decision against Minnesota his last time out, Cahill has turned in five straight quality outings.

The Angels are 9-3 the last 12 meetings dating back to last October, including a 4-1 mark at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. The A's have hit the 'under' in 12 of their last 18 home contests, as Oakland hits the road for nine games in interleague play starting Friday in San Francisco.

Braves at Diamondbacks - 3:40 PM EST

Atlanta and Arizona have definitely helped out 'over' players this season by cashing the 'over' in all five meetings this season. The three highest prices the Braves have laid on the road this season have all come when Tommy Hanson starts, including the $1.60 he is listed at in the series finale.

Following two disastrous starts against the Reds and D-Backs, Hanson (6-3, 3.71 ERA) has turned in three consecutive quality outings, while allowing just five earned runs in wins over the Phillies, Marlins, and Dodgers. The last time Hanson faced Arizona on May 15, the D-Backs were feast or famine by striking out 10 times, but still picked up five runs and seven hits in an 11-1 thrashing of the Braves.

Dontrelle Willis (1-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his second start in an Arizona uniform, after getting traded from Detroit on June 1. The D-Train tossed six scoreless innings in a 4-3 victory over Colorado in his D-Backs debut last Saturday, only the second win for Willis in 10 starts overall this season. The southpaw hasn't faced the Braves since 2007 when he was a member of the Marlins, but Florida went 6-1 in Willis' last seven starts against Atlanta.

The Braves have taken care of their business as a road favorite recently, winning seven of their last eight as away 'chalk.' Atlanta has hit the 'over' in seven of its previous eight on the road, while Arizona has gone 'over' the total in nine of the last 12 at home.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-09-2010, 11:25 PM

Where did all the runs go?

Bring back the steroids! I mean it; let these baseball players start taking something again. O.K. roids are illegal in baseball but some chemist dude has to cooking up something with a masking agent that could bring the power back to baseball. Jose Bautista of Toronto leads the big leagues with 18 home runs. Back when Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Jose Canseco played, those guys and even a freakin’ Brady Anderson could hit that many in a month. In the National League, Cory Hart leads with 15 homers, that is less than 45 for the entire season from the leading masher.

I used to watch Sports Center and Baseball Tonight religiously knowing I’d get my fill of long blasts of 400+ feet with guys having bulging biceps, necks bigger than their oversized 8 ¾ hats and enough acne that Clearsil could carry my stock portfolio.

Now you get the occasional long ball, hitters going the other way with a pitch for a single and even the worst of all, showing guys moving the runner to another base to help SET-UP another run to be scored. No wonder I bought Captain Morgan’s Long Island’s Iced Tea.

Betting baseball totals has become a joke. The oddsmakers spotted the trend last year and immediately began posting lower numbers from a season ago. The average posted total is more than five percent lower than an year ago and runs scored and home runs are their lowest in over a decade. Even with the reduction of totals numbers, the Under is still 842-784, 51.7. I know San Diego’s pitching has been incredible this year with the fewest runs allowed at 3.3 per game and they play in the second largest expanse other than the Grand Canyon, but come on, they have had more totals of six (2) than anything above 7.5 (none) at Petco (Death Valley) Park.

Remember the good old days when you wagered against the oddsmakers at Coors Field? Totals of 11.5 to 13 were common before humidors. Sadly, Colorado has only had three games of 10.5 or higher all season at their Rocky Mountains home. I know the Rockies are better with the likes of Troy Tulowitzki and Ubaldo Jimenez, but I sure miss Dante Bichette, Larry Walker and 1,000 Colorado pitchers who never got anybody out. Let the baseball’s breathe and dry out in Colorado for more runs to be scored.

Besides where did all the hitting stars disappear to? Bautista and Hart leading their respective leagues in home runs, where is Albert Pujols, Mark Reynolds, David Ortiz and A-Rod. I understand they are close, but who is talking about Alex Rodriguez catching Barry Bonds for the all-time home run lead let alone Hank Aaron as the former long ball king.

I admit it, I used to be a juicer, I had the machine where you put all the fruits and vegetables in it and made it a drink, but after a few months, though I felt better, a friend pointed out to me that I’ll live six months longer than him in a nursing home by doing this.

I like seeing second sacker Kelly Johnson of Arizona with 13 home runs already (16 is career high), that means he’s doing something right to make himself stronger. In fact the D-Backs are my favorite team at 38-19 Over. They are way better than any reality TV show with people screwing up their lives. All the Arizona hitters swing WAY harder than they should, strikeout a ton while hitting enough home runs. And their pitching is so bad the Phoenix Fire Department is a new stadium sponsor with their 7.22 bullpen ERA.

Maybe I’m over-reacting, but when Carlos Silva is 8-0 with a 2.93 ERA and the Cubs are +10 units with him pitching with their sickly offense, something isn’t right in baseball.

While baseball celebrates the end of the steroids era with the likes of Jimenez, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter and now Stephen Strasburg, plus countless other pitchers that are taking over the game, I’ll be rooting for youngsters like Atlanta’s Jason Heyward and Florida’s Michael Stanton to be the next hitting stars, while dreaming about Harry Caray saying this about another Sosa bomb, “It could be, it might be, IT IS another home run for Sosa!”

**StarDust Bum** · 06-10-2010, 06:39 PM

Evening Games:

NY Yankees - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +233 500 *****
Baltimore - Over 9.5 500 *****

Boston - 7:05 PM ET Boston -205 500
Cleveland - Under 9 500

Pittsburgh - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +142 500 *****
Washington - Over 8.5 500 *****

Florida - 7:05 PM ET Philadelphia -164 500
Philadelphia - Under 6.5 500 *****

Toronto - 7:10 PM ET Toronto +125 500 *****
Tampa Bay - Under 9 500

Seattle - 8:05 PM ET Texas -190 500
Texas - Over 10 500 *****

Kansas City - 8:10 PM ET Minnesota -200 500
Minnesota - Under 9 500

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
06/08/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
06/06/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
06/03/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
Totals 3-3-0 50.00% -150

Thursday, June 10Game Score Status Pick Amount

L.A. Lakers - 9:00 PM ET L.A. Lakers +4 500 *****
Boston - Over 190 500 *****

-----------------------------------------------------------
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
06/08/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
06/06/10 2-4-0 33.33% -1200 Detail
06/05/10 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
06/04/10 4-4-0 50.00% -200 Detail
06/03/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
06/01/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
Totals 14-18-0 43.75% -2900

Thursday, June 10Game Score Status Pick Amount

Minnesota - 10:00 PM ET Minnesota +7 500 *****
Phoenix - Under 181.5 500 *****

Good Luck !

**StarDust Bum** · 06-10-2010, 07:02 PM

Game 4 Bettors looking for Heroes and Goats

Maybe Boston’s Paul Pierce will be right after all, the Celtics might not be going back to Los Angeles, just for all the wrong reasons. Boston was outhustled, outplayed and coughed up home court advantage quicker than a newborn baby. If you bet the Lakers to win the NBA championship, the odds are mostly certainly stacked in your favor.

After L.A. won the opening game, Phil Jackson’s imposing size and demeanor was appearing even larger with his team’s 47-0 record leading 1-0 in a series. After losing the second game at the star-studded Staples Center, the Lakers added one more to 18-6 ATS record when they are tied in a series and the team that wins the crucial third game of a NBA Finals best of seven is 28-4 to be crowned champs.

Lakers' Heroes

Think back, way back to opening L.A. and Oklahoma City series when Russell Westbrook of the Thunder was making Derek Fisher look older than Emmett Smith in the “Just for Men” commercials. Fisher overcame disastrous playoff start and has increasing become more a factor in each series. With Kobe Bryant not his usual self, Fisher took it upon himself to close-out the Celtics, scoring 11 of his 16 points in the final 12 minutes.
“He won the game for them,’’ said Boston coach Doc Rivers. “Derek Fisher was the difference in the game.’’

Another reason for why Los Angeles was able to emerge victorious at TD Garden and move to 37-20 ATS as underdogs was the continued appearance of Lamar Odom. After being saddled with five quick fouls the first two tilts, Odom scored 12 points on perfect 5-for-5 shooting and snaring five rebounds.

“I was able to get into a nice rhythm,’’ Odom said. “I stayed composed. I took what they gave me.’’

Celtics' Goats

NBA coaches continually preach in the playoffs – The last game is the last game, put it behind you.

Ray Allen suffered that lesson the hard way and has to follow that advice moving forward. After unprecedented three-point shooting display in Los Angeles, Allen returned to Boston and put up an unlucky 13 shots, none that went thru the net. Fortunately, he missed being in the record books two games in a row, as Dennis Johnson, then with Seattle, was 0-14 in a NBA Finals game.

All of his shots looked flat,’’ Rivers said. “I don’t think he had any legs. Of his 13 shots, he had eight great looks. But all of his shots were short. And all of them were flat.’’ Allen’s inability to score left his team flat, as the Celtics fell to 18-29 ATS as a home favorite this season.
Pierce proved like the CEO of British Petroleum, talk is cheap and that actions speak louder than words. His 13 for 36 shooting in the Finals speaks volumes for Boston’s chances of winning this series.

Who’s thrown into the spotlight next?

Bookmaker.com has the Celtics as 3.5-point favorites to comeback and even the series with total of 190. In order for this to occur Boston’s Big Three has to stay out of foul trouble (which could be difficult with the horrible officiating towards both teams) and be collectively productive. The C’s are 6-1 ATS after SU loss and Kendrick Perkins has to start putting in the same kind of effort Glen Davis is.

Pierce and teammates have to better execute and screen and rolls, because Ron Artest is in Pierce’s grill otherwise. Rajon Rondo was a non-factor starting halfway thru the second period, that can’t happen again. Though it seems opposite, Boston has played better at faster tempo in this series and is 17-7 OVER off an upset loss as a home favorite.

Andrew Bynum reinjured his ailing knee Tuesday and it would seem doubtful he will be much of a factor, thrusting Odom more prominently into the next contest. The Lakers are 8-4 ATS off a triumph and were somewhat fortunate Fisher was there to bail them out.

The good news is Bryant seldom has two games in a row this time of year where he isn’t clutch, but Tony Allen does give him fits. Gasol could use more than 11 shots like the last contest, but needs to work harder to demand the ball. His team is 9-1 UNDER after allowing 85 points or less this season.

ABC has Game 4 at 9:00 Eastern and the club that shoots the higher percentage is 7-1 and 6-1-1 ATS in previous eight meetings.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-10-2010, 07:03 PM

Toronto tilted towards totals system

The AL East is unrelenting unless you draw the Baltimore Orioles. All the teams can hit, have pitching and are more than adequate catching the baseball. Though the Toronto Blue Jays (+10 units) have been terrific this season at 33-27, thanks to hitting home runs and good starting pitching, this week at least they haven’t belonged in the same class as Tampa Bay.

After winning a home series against the Yankees, Toronto began a road trip that started on the west Florida coast, before heading truly west to face National League teams. The Blue Jays have a Major League leading 97 home runs and are tied for second in the American League with 34 quality starts.

Since Tampa Bay (39-20, +8.5) has gone from a one of the worst teams in baseball to one the best, Toronto has had almost no success against the Rays. They are 4-19 the last three years vs. Tampa Bay, after being torpedoed 9-0 and 10-1 in the first two games of this series.

The Jays will attempt to stem the tide, using Brett Cecil (6-2, 3.43 ERA). The second year left-hander has allowed a total of three runs in 23 1/3 innings over his last three starts. Cecil owns a four-game winning streak and has held opponents to a .170 batting average in this stretch. Even as well as Cecil has pitched, Toronto will need some offense and is 1-10 after scoring three runs or less three straight games.

Tampa Bay is 18-6 against left-handed starters this season and will look to get Wade Davis (5-5, 5.03) back on track, as he has a 10.80 ERA in his last three starts. “Wade had a tough night,” Rays manager Joe Maddon said. “Fastball command issues got him. Overall he was just missing his spots.”

Bookmaker.com has Toronto as +125 money line underdogs, but more importantly the Blue Jays fit a totals system for the final game of the series that is listed at Un9.

Play UNDER on all teams like Toronto when the total is 9 to 9.5, after scoring one run or less two straight games, against opponent after scoring 10 runs or more.

Dating back 13 years in our high-powered ******* database, this system is 31-8, 79.5 percent; with the average total score 7.7 runs per game. Other circumstances also lend themselves to this be a winning play as Toronto is 17-5 UNDER after permitting 10 runs or more and Tampa Bay is 10-2 UNDER at Tropicana Field with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games.

With home plate umpire Mike Winters 8-5 UNDER behind the plate, the odds could be your favor for this action this evening.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-10-2010, 07:20 PM

Minnesota has star back for desert duel

The Phoenix Mercury suffered a heartbreaking loss in their last game as the defending WNBA champions struggled against in another matchup with one of the league’s weaker teams. They’ll face another challenge Thursday night when they host the Minnesota Lynx, who expect to have All-Star Seimone Augustus in the lineup for the first time since she tore her ACL last year.

The Mercury (3-5, 2-6 ATS) are 4 1/2 games behind conference-leading Seattle, due in part to their inability to take advantage of two lesser opponents this month. Phoenix, which lost 92-82 to Minnesota (2-7, 3-6 ATS) last Tuesday, fell 92-91 to Los Angeles on Tuesday for its second straight defeat. Candace Parker made a layup with 3.4 seconds remaining to give her team its second win. Nonetheless the Mercury is 9-1 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.

The Mercury allowed Parker to score 22 points, and they could face another tough matchup in Augustus. The fifth-year guard is set to make her season debut after suffering a season-ending knee injury June 17 against Phoenix.

“I just want to have fun and win while enjoying basketball again and enjoying being out there with my teammates,” she told Minnesota’s official website.

The last-place Lynx (2-7) need Augustus, who has averaged 21.2 points in her career, to boost their offense. Minnesota is scoring 74.8 points per game - second-lowest in the WNBA - and shooting a league-worst 37.7 percent. “Obviously we’ve had problems putting the ball in the hole,” coach Cheryl Reeve said. “We’re looking to improve those things and having our best player on the court would really help in those areas.”

Minnesota has not performed well against teams like Phoenix and is 12-25 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 73 or more points a game over the last three seasons.

While the team didn’t announce how much Augustus will play, she only returned to full practice Tuesday. Besides ACL surgery, she also underwent abdominal surgery in May. The Lynx didn’t need Augustus in a 92-82 home win over the Mercury on June 1, as Monica Wright scored a career-high 32 points.

Minnesota, however, could have used Augustus in an 89-51 loss to Indiana on Sunday. The Lynx were held to a franchise-low 12 field goals and eight points in the fourth quarter - a team record for that period.
Minnesota played without Lindsay Whalen, who sat out with an undisclosed illness. It’s uncertain if she’ll be back in the lineup Thursday.
The guard averages 11.5 points and a team-high 4.3 assists.

While the Lynx have been struggling to score, the combination of Augustus’ return plus a matchup with the league’s worst defensive team could help. The Mercury are allowing 88.4 points per game and gave up at least 92 in four of the last five games and Minnesota is 9-2 OVER versus good offensive teams scoring 77 more points a contest.

Bookmaker.com has Phoenix as 7.5-point favorites, with total of 180.5. The Mercury are 13-4 ATS revenging a loss and 15-4 ATS after one or more defeats since last year. The Lynx will try to run with Phoenix, however is only 5-16 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive conflicts as an underdog.

This Western Conference matchup has 7:00 Pacific start and Phoenix is 11-1 OVER off a loss against a conference rival over the last two seasons.

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