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**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2010, 02:53 PM

Series shift favors the Celtics

Don’t you just love the drama of the NBA Finals, everything is overanalyzed, everyone is seeking a unique storyline and all the conjecture goes right to the top. One day the Lakers are invincible, the next they might not play another game this season in Los Angeles. Boston is in the same predicament as Doc Rivers noted. “We lose and were old, we win and we have veteran experience.”

The easiest aspect to lose sight of is this is a series, a best of seven. That alone usually means twists and turns, especially when it is The Finals.
No question Rajon Rondo has had a fantastic playoff series for Boston, but ESPN’s Colin Cowherd is calling him the third best player in the NBA, just behind Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. (His reasoning why ahead of Dwayne Wade is because he’s taken his team deeper in the playoffs, disregarding the talent difference between the two clubs.)

Face the facts, Boston has too much leadership and experience to go down like a Cleveland, they have players that will find a way to contribute, even if a part of their game is not working 100 percent perfectly.

The Celtics return home where they are 31-19 and 19-30-1 ATS this season (7-2 SU & ATS in the playoffs). While Boston fans and backers are psyched they can end the series at home, it’s extremely unlikely to happen. As noted, the Celtics are far from a sure thing or bet at home and the Bryant surly attitude after Sunday’s loss would suggest he will come with a vengeance, if the referee’s let both teams play.

Both games in the Finals have gone Over the total, however not based on level of skill shown, rather by referee’s enjoying the tweeting of their whistles and evidently TV time. As compared to the Stanley Cup Finals where penalties are down compared to the rest of the playoffs, the basketball fouls are coming faster than Twitter ‘tweets”.

As John Hollinger of ESPN.com points out, after two contests the numbers show an average of 56 fouls and 67 free throws compared to regular season average of 41.7 and 49.1 per game, respectively. Though playoff basketball tends to be slower and more physical and a few more fouls would be expected to be called since teams will not concede layups as often. Nonetheless, the fouls for a four quarter Finals confrontation are up over 20 percent compared to the rest of the postseason.

NBA fans are not turning on The Finals to see Bryant, Ray Allen and several other players on the bench with ticky-tacky fouls that are not even called during the regular season.

In spite of the defeat, the Phil Jackson and company can’t be totally depressed. It took the best deep shooting performance ever by Allen and a triple-double by Rondo to knock off the Lakers with Bryant and Lamar Odom glued to the bench with fouls for lengthy periods. Though it is earlier than a couple of the other series they’ve played, the Foxsheets database has L.A. 18-6 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996.

Boston will look to keep the pressure on with Rondo forcing the issue with the ball and feeding the C’s big guys in the paint, to keep Pau Gasol and others busy, opening up the mid-range jump shooting game the Celtics prefer.

Bookmaker.com has Rivers club as 2.5-point favorites with total of 192.5. It will be worth watching how both teams react in the first half traveling across the country and playing a game of this magnitude less than 48 hours after completing the prior conflict and losing additional three hours for time zone shift.

The rest aspect could be important for sports betting purposes with Boston 7-2 ATS with one day between contests and the Lakers 5-14 ATS.

Los Angeles is 13-3 UNDER in road games revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, while the home team for Game 3 is 7-3 UNDER as playoff favorite.

The starting time moves back to 9:00 Eastern, with the Celtics 4-2 and 4-1-1 ATS when the Lake Show makes an appearance in Bean-Town the last three years.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2010, 02:53 PM

MLB Systems that circle the bases

On this Tuesday in baseball, believe it or not there are other baseball games as or possibly even more important than Pittsburgh at Washington. While you can still buy a ticket to Roy Halladay’s perfect game in Florida (at full price no less, go Marlins), there are four baseball systems (plus a bonus play) in place tonight for the online sports betting fan which could add to cash to wagering account. All money lines and totals are from Bookmaker.com.

Florida at Philadelphia 7:05E

Another lesser known rookie will be making his debut, as power hitter Mike Stanton will be in the Marlins batting order. The 20-year-old outfielder has been tearing it up Double-A Jacksonville (hitting .311 with 21 homers and 52 RBIs in 52 games) and his first big league at bat will be against Kyle Kendrick (3-2, 4.62 ERA) who has found a groove and is 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA in his last six outings.

Philadelphia (30-26, -6.4 units) still isn’t hitting the baseball, averaging two runs per contest in last 13 outings, however their fielding has been impeccable, with no errors in last five games. The Phillies are -138 money line choice and favorites with a ML of -125 to -175, after three straight games where they committed no errors, starting a pitcher whose given up one or less earned runs in his last two outings are 65-19 since 2006. (Note: The San Francisco Giants and Matt Cain also fit this system)

Toronto at Tampa Bay 7:10E

The Rays are seventh in the American League in home runs, but still manufacture runs well enough to be third in baseball at 5.2 per game. Tampa Bay (37-20, +6.5) won on Sunday 9-5 in Texas to salvage a .500 road trip and send Jeff Niemann (5-0, 2.79) up against Toronto’s ( 33-25, +12) power laden lineup.

The Blue Jays lead the Major’s in home runs yet only bat .245 as a team and Niemann and the Rays are 8-0 vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. Tampa Bay is a -195 ML pick and our potent ******* database finds home favorites with a ML of -175 to -250, averaging 0.9 or less dingers a game on the season, after a win by four runs or more, are 27-4 the previous three years.

Kansas City at Minnesota 8:10E

Zack Grienke (1-7, 3.60) might be feeling the pressure of late with the lack of run support and trying to be too perfect. Last year’s Cy Young award winner has a 7.04 ERA in last three starts, allowing 24 hits in 15 1/3 innings. He’s received the lowest run support in the American League at 2.64 per start.

“The last month I haven’t really been myself, I guess,” said Greinke. “Everything looks tougher, like the hitters look better and the strike zone looks smaller. It just seems tougher out there at the moment.”

The Kansas City hurler will take on a Minnesota team (33-24, +3.2) scrambling for bodies with a number of injuries and not hitting the ball. With oddsmakers setting the total Un8, the play is UNDER when a ice cold hitting team is batting .200 or worse over their last five games, against opponent with a frigid starting pitcher, whose ERA is 7.00 or higher over his last three starts. In the last 13 years this system is 67-28 below the number.

St. Louis at L.A. Dodgers 10:10E

The Cardinals offense could be a Dateline mystery on NBC, ranking a pedestrian 14th overall at 4.6 runs per game. Manager Tony LaRussa gave the appearance at least that last night’s game was not particularly important using two pitchers Blake Hawksworth and P.J. Walters, in a 12-4 loss to Los Angeles (34-24, +3.6).

Evidently, LaRussa is focusing on the last two games of the series and has Chris Carpenter (7-1, 2.76) on one extra day rest taking on Dodgers starter Hiroki Kuroda (5-4, 3.63). Carpenter is 9-0 with a 2.42 ERA in his last 14 regular-season road starts; however has 5.21 ERA when pitching with five or more days rest.

Does it make it a wise to bet to back the underdog Dodgers at +115, since National League clubs scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a contest vs. a NL starter with an ERA of 3.70 or less, after allowing 10 runs or more, are 19-49?

**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2010, 02:54 PM

The Stephen Strasburgh era begins in Washington

WASHINGTON (AP)—The anticipation is nearly over. The 21-year-old with the fastball that approaches 100 mph and the curve that freezes batters is about to take the mound in the nation’s capital. Stephen Strasburg is set to make his Washington Nationals debut Tuesday night. Standing room only tickets went on sale Monday, all part of a rare Nationals Park sellout. The Internet is humming with offers for good seats. More than 200 requests for media credentials have been submitted, forcing officials to turn a dining area into a work space to accommodate all those reporters with laptops.

For the Nationals (27-31, +6.7 units), Strasburg’s major league debut is best summed up in one word.

Finally.

“I’m looking forward to that first outing or two being out of the way,” manager Jim Riggleman said. “I know the attention’s not going to go away completely, but the anticipation of the thing has been building since the draft — and before the draft—last year.”

No one’s seen anything like it. A No. 1 overall pick who gets sellout, rock-star, hire-extra-security treatment in minor league cities such as Harrisburg and Rochester. It’s the type of overexposure usually reserved for top picks in the NFL or NBA.

The Nationals are actually having a decent year following back-to-back 100-losses seasons and are coming off a pair of losses to Cincinnati and are 18-11 after a loss this season. However, everything they’ve done has been overshadowed by talk about a player who didn’t have a locker in the clubhouse, whose debut against the Pittsburgh Pirates (23-34, +2) has been given its own baseball holiday nickname: “Strasmas.”

“He needs to take a step back, take a deep breath and kind of soak in the moment because you only debut once in your career. It’s a special day for him, also,” general manager Mike Rizzo said. “We’re looking forward to getting back into a more normal routine with Stephen Strasburg as part of the Washington Nationals.”

That would be just fine with Strasburg. He has candidly stated on many occasions that his Majors debut has been long overdue.

“I feel like I’ve been ready,” he said after his last minor league outing, five scoreless innings for Triple-A Syracuse at Buffalo last week.
There’s not much argument there. It was almost cruel to watch Strasburg overwhelm hitters in Double-A and Triple-A. His combined stats: 7-2 with a 1.30 ERA with 65 strikeouts and only 13 walks in 55 1-3 innings.

But money trumped wins, at least this year. Having already invested heavily in the right-hander from San Diego State with a record $15.1 million contract over four years, the Nationals wanted to save some dough down the road by calling Strasburg up after June 1, thus delaying by one year the eventual date when he will be eligible for arbitration.

Strasburg is also looking forward to normalcy because he’s not a limelight guy.

He usually doesn’t have much to say when the microphones are turned on, and the team has protected him by limiting his availability. He will sometimes let a reporter know if he doesn’t care for a question, which can both refreshing and embarrassing. Strasburg was married in January, but the Nationals have already announced that on Tuesday: “Strasburg’s family will NOT be available to media (no exceptions).”

Relief pitcher Drew Storen has been called the anti-Strasburg. Drafted nine places after his more famous teammates; Storen is on Twitter and always has time for an interview. At spring training, Strasburg seemed to have an invisible wall around him, while Storen once spent about 10 minutes with reporters discussing socks. Storen, called up to the majors a few weeks ago, jokes that he and Strasburg have “that Batman-Robin thing going on.”

Storen, therefore, doesn’t mind sharing the news: Strasburg does indeed have a pulse.

“He’s got a great personality—it’s just that he’s a very low-key guy,” Storen said. “And it’s not what you’d expect out of a guy like that. You expect a big-time talent to have a big-time personality and be this real outspoken guy, and he’s far from that. He’s a guy that will ask anybody questions and is willing to learn from anybody, and that’s the key to his success. … He’s got a different type personality than I do, but he’s got the right personality for the position he’s in.”

The toned-down persona hasn’t stopped the hype machine. Want to bet on how Strasburg’s going to do Tuesday? There are odds on whether his first pitch will be a ball or strike, how many innings he’ll last and nearly everything else in between. Sports bettors have this as one-sided affair, as Washington opened as -165 money line favorites and they have been bet all the way up to -210.

Nationals Park has been sold out only once so far this season—on opening day—but the thought that Strasburg might pitch drew the season’s second biggest crowd Friday against Cincinnati. Strasburg’s thoughts about it all? Pretty straightforward.

“It’s my major league debut. What more can you say?” he said. “It’s something I’ve dreamed about my entire life, and now it’s starting to become a reality.”

At least Strasburg won’t have to wait long for the next phenom to come along. Baseball’s draft was held Monday, and the Nationals again held the No. 1 overall pick. As expected, Washington selected Bryce Harper, a junior college slugger who’s had about as much hype as Strasburg.

It makes for quite a week for a franchise that hasn’t had a winning season since moving to Washington from Montreal in 2005. “I can’t remember back-to-back years where there’s two players who have separated themselves from the rest of the field the way Strasburg did in ’09 and Harper does in ’10,” Rizzo said. “In that respect, it is very, very unique. I think it’s a lucky time to have two No. 1 picks overall.”

The Nationals have a great deal of baggage to overcome, with a 15-25 record as a home favorite of -110 or higher and though the anticipation had one more day to build, Washington is 4-22 playing with a day off over the last two seasons.

Bookmaker.com has the total at Un8.5 and that’s a hard prediction given the circumstances, nevertheless the Nats are is 13-3 UNDER after two straight games with one or less extra base hits, while Pittsburgh is 36-21 OVER in road games after a loss by four runs or more. The Pirates offense continues to struggle and they are 12-42 away from home after batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span over the last two years.

The buzz in the ballyard will be fun in Washington for a change and Bucs starter Jeff Karstens (1-1, 4.50) has to keep his emotions in check to give his club a chance to win. MLB.TV will broadcast the game 7:05 Eastern and ESPN will be covering this event in the afternoon before the telecast as only they can.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2010, 02:55 PM

Add Umpires to Baseball Betting Portfolio

This baseball season, umpires have been in the news a bit more often than usual. Joe West called out the Yankees and Red Sox for slow play in April, as most of their games go right up against a 240 minute hour glass. And just last week Jim Joyce cost Detroit’s Armando Galarraga a place in baseball history by missing a call that would have given him the 21st perfect game ever.

But umpires have other uses besides being screamed at like “Hey ump you stink” or “Come on blue get in the game”. Sharp baseball bettors take the time to study or at the very least know whose working behind the dish to understand what kind of influence they may have on the outcome of a game.

This is especially true for baseball bettors who playing totals. Umpiring is more standardized today with the use of modern equipment to see how consistent an umpire is in calling balls and strikes, compared to the old days when the National League was known a “high ball” league and American League was known as a “low ball” league based on how they wore their chest protectors.

Those days are gone, however each umpire interprets the strike zone differently and it tends to be somewhat of a moving target.

This is where you find some are liberal with the zone and their games tend to be lower scoring, while others are smaller, either by width or height and the games they call behind the plate are often higher scoring with pitchers having to catch more of plate which gives batters a better choice of pitches to hit.

Here are the umpires that have called the highest percentage of Over contests this season.

Games OVER the total (Pushes not listed)

Angel Campos 9-2
Tim Welke 9-2
Angel Hernandez 9-3
Mike Reilly 8-3
Sam Holbrook 6-2

Next are the umps that have called the most Under the oddsmakers total.

Games UNDER the total (Pushes not listed)

Jim Wolf 10-1
Bob Davidson 10-2
Bruce Dreckman 9-2
Dan Iassogna 9-3

One aspect that has to be considered is who and the types of pitchers involved. If the men in shirtsleeves this time of year have No. 4 or 5 starters on consistent basis and they have tighter strike zone to begin with, needless to say the chances of a higher scoring game go up. Conversely, if an umpire draws the top pitchers from the various teams and normally gives the hurler the benefit of the doubt to begin with, than he’s more inclined to have games flying Under the number.

One further point of consideration is the record of an umpire in home or away situations. This generally is less important, nevertheless extreme cases should be part of the decision-making process.

These guys are human and are going to be influenced by their surroundings, a juiced up home crowd could sway decisions, just like what happens in basketball to officials. Other umps might be a touch “prickly”, and go out of their way to give the visitor the benefit of the doubt.

You can’t help but notice the home team is 12-0 with Ted Tichenor behind the plate in a home ball park in 2010. Others with figures supporting the club that bats last are Tim McClelland 11-2, Gerry Davis 10-3, Brian O’Nora 10-3, Greg Gibson 10-3 and Jerry Meals 10-3.

Those that have the opposite numbers with the visiting team coming out ahead are Ed Rapuano 9-2 (visitors record), Marvin Hudson 8-3, plus Bob Davidson and Laz Diaz at 9-4.

The idea isn’t to base a baseball wager on the outcome of what an umpire’s record is on totals or sides, but to understand they can and do influence the outcome of games. Mixed with other key information, they are part of the fabric of the game and baseball wagering.

**jt4545** · 06-08-2010, 05:17 PM

Good luck and thanks

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