Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 06-07-2010, 06:38 PM

Monday Night Baseball Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies offense seems to be coming around, but it still has a long way to go to get back to its normal prolific clip. The Phillies try to bounce back from a tough loss and take three of four from the San Diego Padres in Monday night’s series finale at Citizens Bank Park.

Philadelphia (30-25, -4.7 units) entered this set with the Padres having lost nine of 11 with its offense in shambles, plating a mere 14 runs over that stretch. The Phillies scored nine runs in winning the first two games against San Diego, but the team’s formidable lineup is still not producing as expected.

In Saturday’s 6-5, 10-inning loss, Philadelphia squandered several scoring chances, leaving 15 men on base and going 3 for 15 with runners in scoring position. The Phillies also wasted a golden scoring opportunity in the 10th when Placido Polanco- the potential tying run - was thrown out at third for the second out with Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth due up.
“One out, you have to try,” Polanco said. “Base hit, I’ve got to make it to third somehow.

Although Philadelphia’s seven-game winning streak over San Diego ended Sunday, the Phillies seem to have a good chance of bouncing back with Cole Hamels (5-4, 4.20 ERA, 1.461 WHIP) set to pitch in the finale.

Hamels, 3-0 with a 3.49 ERA in four starts against the Padres since 2008, is taking the ball in his normal spot in the rotation despite having an abbreviated start last time out and he and the Phillies are 20-7 when he starts after his team scored five or more runs in previous contest.

In Tuesday’s 7-3 loss in Atlanta, Hamels gave up a three-run homer to Braves cleanup hitter Troy Glaus, but only got to face one more batter before heavy rains arrived. The left-hander threw just 24 pitches but his day was done after a 64-minute rain delay.

The Phillies opted not to move up Hamels’ next start because they like the way their rotation is set.

San Diego (33-23, +12.6 units) won for the ninth time in 14 games Sunday, and can avoid losing its first series since being swept in a three-game set by the Los Angeles Dodgers from May 14-15 with a victory in the finale. The Padres are 11-4 after three or more consecutive road games this season.

The top of the Padres’ lineup led the way Sunday with the 2-3-4 hitters - Jerry Hairston Jr., Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Headley - going a combined 10 for 15 with four runs. Gonzalez homered and drove in three, and is 9 for 19 with two homers and eight RBIs in his last four games. What is especially impressive is the Friars 12-4 (+10.4 Units) record against the money line playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season.

Wade LeBlanc (2-4, 3.67, 1.551) hopes San Diego’s offense can replicate that effort in the series finale as the left-hander tries to snap a four-start losing streak. LeBlanc, who has a 2.35 ERA in eight starts against NL opponents this season, hasn’t pitched badly in three games during the losing skid - recording a 3.50 ERA - but hasn’t received a single run of support in those outings. Against the New York Mets on Tuesday, LeBlanc allowed two runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 4-2 loss.
This will be LeBlanc’s first career appearance against the Phillies.

Sportsbook.com has Philadelphia as -180 ML favorite with total of 9, yet they are just 5-10 (-13.3 Units) vs. the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -200 over the last two seasons and 29-11 UNDER with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. San Diego’s bullpen held the Phillies in check yesterday and are 19-12 (+9.0 Units) against the ML after the pen gave up no runs and 10-2 UNDER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.

This is the ESPN Monday Night matchup which starts at 7:00 Eastern with the Phils a shocking 1-8 at home against left-hand opposing starters.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-07-2010, 06:39 PM

Add Umpires to Baseball Betting Portfolio

This baseball season, umpires have been in the news a bit more often than usual. Joe West called out the Yankees and Red Sox for slow play in April, as most of their games go right up against a 240 minute hour glass. And just last week Jim Joyce cost Detroit’s Armando Galarraga a place in baseball history by missing a call that would have given him the 21st perfect game ever.

But umpires have other uses besides being screamed at like “Hey ump you stink” or “Come on blue get in the game”. Sharp baseball bettors take the time to study or at the very least know whose working behind the dish to understand what kind of influence they may have on the outcome of a game.

This is especially true for baseball bettors who playing totals. Umpiring is more standardized today with the use of modern equipment to see how consistent an umpire is in calling balls and strikes, compared to the old days when the National League was known a “high ball” league and American League was known as a “low ball” league based on how they wore their chest protectors.

Those days are gone, however each umpire interprets the strike zone differently and it tends to be somewhat of a moving target.

This is where you find some are liberal with the zone and their games tend to be lower scoring, while others are smaller, either by width or height and the games they call behind the plate are often higher scoring with pitchers having to catch more of plate which gives batters a better choice of pitches to hit.

Here are the umpires that have called the highest percentage of Over contests this season.

Games OVER the total (Pushes not listed)

Angel Campos 9-2
Tim Welke 9-2
Angel Hernandez 9-3
Mike Reilly 8-3
Sam Holbrook 6-2

Next are the umps that have called the most Under the oddsmakers total.

Games UNDER the total (Pushes not listed)

Jim Wolf 10-1
Bob Davidson 10-2
Bruce Dreckman 9-2
Dan Iassogna 9-3

One aspect that has to be considered is who and the types of pitchers involved. If the men in shirtsleeves this time of year have No. 4 or 5 starters on consistent basis and they have tighter strike zone to begin with, needless to say the chances of a higher scoring game go up. Conversely, if an umpire draws the top pitchers from the various teams and normally gives the hurler the benefit of the doubt to begin with, than he’s more inclined to have games flying Under the number.

One further point of consideration is the record of an umpire in home or away situations. This generally is less important, nevertheless extreme cases should be part of the decision-making process.

These guys are human and are going to be influenced by their surroundings, a juiced up home crowd could sway decisions, just like what happens in basketball to officials. Other umps might be a touch “prickly”, and go out of their way to give the visitor the benefit of the doubt.

You can’t help but notice the home team is 12-0 with Ted Tichenor behind the plate in a home ball park in 2010. Others with figures supporting the club that bats last are Tim McClelland 11-2, Gerry Davis 10-3, Brian O’Nora 10-3, Greg Gibson 10-3 and Jerry Meals 10-3.

Those that have the opposite numbers with the visiting team coming out ahead are Ed Rapuano 9-2 (visitors record), Marvin Hudson 8-3, plus Bob Davidson and Laz Diaz at 9-4.

The idea isn’t to base a baseball wager on the outcome of what an umpire’s record is on totals or sides, but to understand they can and do influence the outcome of games. Mixed with other key information, they are part of the fabric of the game and baseball wagering.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-07-2010, 06:42 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday

Angels at Athletics – The Angels are 8-0 since June 04, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $820. The Angels are 7-0 since June 16, 2009 within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a win in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $730.

Braves at Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are 7-0 since April 27, 2009 when Dan Haren starts at home in the first game of a series for a net profit of $700. The Diamondbacks are 5-0 since April 22, 2009 when Dan Haren starts after the team lost his last two starts for a net profit of $500.

Cardinals at Dodgers – The Cardinals are 0-6 since September 29, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $665 when playing against.

Red Sox at Indians – The Red Sox are 7-0 since May 04, 2009 after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $700. The Red Sox are 7-0 since June 29, 2009 after a one run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $700. The Indians are 0-8 since April 12, 2010 at home when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $835 when playing against.

Padres at Phillies – The Padres are 4-0 since August 25, 2009 as a road 170+ dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $720. The Phillies are 9-0 since May 15, 2009 after a loss in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings for a net profit of $980. The Phillies are 7-0 since October 04, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $700. The Phillies are 0-4 since June 16, 2009 when Cole Hamels starts in June for a net profit of $535 when playing against.

Cubs at Pirates – The Cubs are 9-0 since April 16, 2010 when Carlos Silva starts for a net profit of $960.

Mariners at Rangers – The Mariners are 0-7 since April 12, 2010 as a favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Mariners are 0-7 since April 12, 2010 as a favorite after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $795 when playing against.

Giants at Reds – The Giants are 5-0 since April 22, 2009 when Barry Zito starts as a dog vs a team that won their starters last three starts for a net profit of $705. The Reds are 7-0 since October 04, 2009 at home when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $750. The Reds are 5-0 since May 08, 2009 when Johnny Cueto starts as a home favorite after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $500.

Astros at Rockies – The Astros are 0-7 since July 27, 2009 when Wandy Rodriguez starts on the road after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $735 when playing against.. The Rockies are 9-0 since August 13, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $900. The Rockies are 0-5 since October 11, 2009 when Jason Hammel starts after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $505 when playing against..

**StarDust Bum** · 06-07-2010, 06:42 PM

Monday's Tip Sheet

Monday’s pro baseball slate features eight evening games on tap and six of the battles are non-divisional contests. Let’s take a closer look at all of the matchups.
Sizzling Sox

Even though Boston was nipped 4-3 by Baltimore in 11 innings on Sunday, it’s still one of the hottest teams in the majors. The Red Sox have now won 14 of 19, which includes an 8-2 mark on the road during this span. Boston will stay on the road for another four games, starting Monday in Cleveland. The Indians just wrapped up a 10-game road trip, which saw the team go 4-6.

This will be the first meeting between the two clubs this year and if it’s anything like last season, then expect domination by Boston. The Red Sox won seven of the nine meetings, all coming by two runs or more, helping bettors cash on the run-line as well. The ‘over’ went 6-3 in the nine games, and 3-1 in the four battles from Jacobs Field.

The total for this showdown is hovering around 9 runs, which could be a tad high considering the starters. Daisuke Matsuzaka (4-2, 5.49 ERA) has been up and down this year but he’s only surrendered six earned runs and 13 hits over his last three starts (19 1/3 innings). Countering Dice-K will be Fausto Carmona (4-4, 3.53 ERA). Even though the Indians have only won four of his 11 starts, it hasn’t been fault as much as the Tribe’s offense. The attack has been stifled to four runs or less in eight of his appearances.

Fourth and Final

San Diego hopes to earn a split with Philadelphia as the pair wraps up a four-game set. The Phillies stifled the Padres 3-2 and 6-2 behind Roy Halladay and Jamie Moyer in the first two contests but Joe Blanton and the bullpen couldn’t help the club win on Sunday. San Diego captured a 6-5 decision in 10 innings behind an offense that put up 16 hits.

The Phillies send Cole Hamels (5-4, 4.20 ERA) to the hill and the lefthander has been much better at home (3-1, 2.94 ERA) this season. The team has won four of his five starts and he hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs during that span. Over his career, Hamels has faced San Diego seven times and he’s produced a 3-1 mark and 3.35 ERA.

Wade LeBlanc (2-4, 3.67 ERA) helped the Padres go 5-0 in his first five starts but that run has come to a screeching halt. The lefty is 0-4 in his last four trips to the mound, giving up 24 hits and 15 earned runs over this span. And his offense has been limited to three runs or less in three of the four setbacks. The Phillies have gone 1-6 against southpaws at home this season, including 1-4 in nighttime games.

Home Chalk

San Francisco at Cincinnati (-130): The Giants started their seven-game road trip by taking two of three in Pittsburgh, while the Red finished up a six-game road swing with a pedestrian 3-3 ledger. Barry Zito (6-2, 2.78 ERA) has been solid for the Giants this year and the offense has only produced a combined five runs in the four games that San Francisco has lost with the lefthander this season. The Reds have dominated southpaws (8-3) at home this year and they’ll have Johnyy Cueto (5-1, 4.09 ERA) taking the rubber. Cincy has won seven straight with Cueto on the hill, behind an offense that’s averaging 6.5 runs during this streak.

Houston at Colorado (-160): The Astros have struggled on the road (8-15) this season and the Rockies have been a real tough out at home (15-9). Neither the Rockies’ Jason Hammel (2-3, 6.09 ERA) nor the Astros’ Wandy Rodriguez (3-7, 5.07 ERA) have been stellar this season, so a pass could be in play. Based on their ERA’s, you could make a case for an ‘over’ play, which is considerably high (9.5) for this matchup between inconsistent offenses.

Atlanta at Arizona (-125): Why are the Diamondbacks (22-35) laying cash to the Braves (33-24) tonight? Dan Haren (5-4, 4.83 ERA) is on the hill for Arizona but he’s been inconsistent this year and the D-Backs have lost four of his last five starts. Plus, Atlanta has been playing great baseball (10-2 L12) and its sending out Derek Lowe (8-4, 4.44 ERA), who has been sharp during his recent three-game winning streak. When the numbers look too good, they’re usually not. Be careful for this one.

AL West Action

This division has turned into a three-horse race, with Texas holding a one-game lead over the Angels and Athletics. It’s still early, but the Mariners are 7 ½ behind the Rangers and their offense continues to struggle. All four teams will be going head-to-head tonight.

Mariners at Rangers: Texas has already captured five of the first six battles against Seattle this year, which includes two of three at home. The ‘under’ has gone 4-2 over this span. Despite the early domination, the Mariners have been installed as favorites with Cliff Lee (3-2, 2.91 ERA) on the mound. After coming up short in his first two starts, Seattle has won four of five when Lee is on the mound. The Rangers will counter with Scott Feldman (3-5, 5.82 ERA), who already beat Seattle 9-2 in early April.

Angels at Athletics: Los Angeles has finally found its groove, winning five in a row and eight of the last 10. That’s not a good sign for Oakland either, because the Angels have already taken four of the first six head-to-head battles this year as well. The A’s have gone 5-5 over their last 10 and will look to Ben Sheets (2-4, 5.00 ERA) tonight. Oakland has won three of his last four appearances and his career ERA versus L.A. is 3.43 ERA over 21 innings. The Angels will pit their own crafty veteran, Scott Kazmir (4-5, 5.86 ERA), against the A’s tonight. The lefthander has been shaky this season but he does have solid numbers against Oakland (8-3, 2.96 ERA) over his career.

Playoff Rematch

The Dodgers swept the Cardinals 3-0 in last year’s National League Divisional Series, leaving a bitter taste with the Red Birds since all of the outcomes were tight. Los Angeles won all three games by a combined seven runs and it was aided by a pitching staff that only surrendered six runs in the three victories.

There’s a very good chance that these two could square off in the postseason again, considering where they sit right now. St. Louis sits atop the NL Central and L.A. is just a game back of San Diego in the NL West.

Both teams have been in good form lately, with each club winning seven of their last 10 battles. The difference is that the Cards have won six of their seven games by three runs or more, while all seven of the Dodgers’ victories have been by exactly one run.

Tonight’s pitching matchup won’t feature any of the top-shelf hurlers, as rookie Carlos Monasterios (2-0, 1.87 ERA) will go for the Dodgers and reliever Blake Hawksworth (0-2, 5.14 ERA) will help the Cards rotation with a spot start.

Announcement

The Bum's Monday's Best Bets MLB !

The Bum's Monday's Best Bets MLB !

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment