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**BettorsChat** · 06-01-2010, 02:04 PM

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**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2010, 05:26 PM

Atlanta favored over falling Phillies

A masterful pitching performance over the weekend briefly masked the Philadelphia Phillies’ troubles, but right now the reigning NL champs are far from perfect. The Phillies have scored 10 runs in their last nine games while ceding first place to the Braves and Tim Hudson will look to add to Philadelphia’s misery while extending Atlanta’s winning streak to seven Tuesday night at Turner Field.

Roy Halladay’s perfect game Saturday night at Florida stole the major league spotlight, but the Phillies’ prolonged offensive drought is becoming a big story in its own right.

Philadelphia (28-22, -3.2 units) hit .187, totaled 10 runs and delivered just one homer in going 2-7 to end May, and it’s surprising ineptitude caught up with it in the standings Monday. Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus homered as the Braves (29-22, +3.4) cruised to a 9-3 win and took over first place in the NL East.

The Phillies hadn’t been out of first place since May 1. “Frustrated? Yes, we’re frustrated,” said left fielder Raul Ibanez, whose team is 5-14 after five straight games where they had less than 10 hits. “But we’re not down. This is a team of guys that are going to fight and scratch and claw.”

Jones, a .340 career hitter versus Philadelphia who has more homers against the Phillies (44) than anyone, doesn’t believe the slump will last much longer. “At some point they’re going to break out of it,” Jones said. “You just hope it’s not against you. We’ve been fortunate.”

The Braves’ six-game winning streak is their longest since a pair of seven-game runs in September and has been victorious in 16 of last 20 overall. Hudson (5-1, 2.24 ERA, 1.135 WHIP) seems like an ideal candidate to continue holding Philadelphia’s powerful lineup at bay.

Yet Hudson’s experience in recent years against the Phillies suggest it may be his own offense who has a rocky day at the plate. The right-hander is 0-5 with a 4.01 ERA in his last nine starts versus Philadelphia, as Atlanta has backed him with an average of only 1.70 runs of support.

Hudson gave up two runs over six innings when the Phillies visited April 21, but got no help in a 2-0 loss. The former Oakland A’s hurler is 1-6 at Turner Field of late against teams with a winning record. (Braves record)
That’s the only time the former 20-game winner has suffered a defeat in 2010. Hudson finished May 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA, though a rain delay cost him a win Thursday at Florida, as he didn’t return despite holding a 3-2 lead after four innings.

“It was probably best (that I didn’t return after the delay),” Hudson told the Braves’ official website. “These antique parts that I’m sporting might have blown out on me.”

The best bet to help the Phillies emerge from their slump might be Ryan Howard, even though he’s 4 for 31 (.129) over his past nine games. The 2006 NL MVP is a .361 (13 for 36) hitter with five homers and eight walks against Hudson. Nevertheless the Phils are 14-23 with an on-base percentage of .285 or worse in their last five outings.

The 2008 World Series MVP, meanwhile, had a rather impressive past month. Cole Hamels (5-3, 3.82, 1.414) was 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in May, though he fell victim to Philadelphia’s offensive struggles Thursday. Hamels held the New York Mets to two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings in a 3-0 loss.

The left-hander gave up three runs over five innings in a 5-3 home win over Atlanta on May 9, but beating the Braves is nothing new to Hamels. Since losing his first two outings versus Atlanta, he’s 8-2 with a 3.70 ERA in 13 starts. Hamels has not been the streak-stopper his team needs and is 9-14 after a loss over the last two seasons. (Phillies Record)

He hasn’t had an easy time with the entire Braves’ roster, however. Jones is 9 for 22 (.409) against Hamels, while Brian McCann is 11 for 32 (.344). Twelve of their 20 hits have been for extra bases.

Bookmaker.com has Atlanta as -131 money line favorites to stay hot with total of 7.5. The Bravos are 17-4 as home favorites in 2010 and 16-4 UNDER after batting .290 or better over a 20-game span since 2008. Despite offensive woes, Philadelphia is 22-9 in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game since last season and is 24-10 UNDER in visiting gray uniforms after two or more consecutive losses.
ESPN will have Game 2 of this NL East conflict with the teams having split four in Atlanta this season, but Philadelphia 15-7 the last three years in Georgia.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2010, 05:27 PM

Tuesday's MLB Tip Sheet

**Phillies at Braves**

--Many, including me, left Atlanta (29-22, +360) for dead when it endured a brutal nine-game losing streak in April. But that’s why you can’t bury teams that early in the year. With the Braves winning 16 of their last 20 games, they have taken sole possession of first place in the National League East. Bobby Cox's club won a 9-3 decision over the Phillies in Monday's series opener to take a one-half game lead over its division rivals from the City of Brotherly Love.

--Philadelphia (28-22, -279) had scored just seven combined runs during a miserable eight-game stretch before Monday’s 9-3 loss. The Phillies did manage to take two of three from the Marlins in South Florida over the weekend thanks to brilliant pitching from Roy Halladay and Kyle Kendrick. Halladay threw a perfect game in Saturday’s 1-0 win, while Kendrick worked six strong innings in Friday’s 3-2 victory.

--Tim Hudson (5-1 record, 2.24 ERA) will get the starting nod for the Braves, who are 17-6 in their home games at Turner Field. Hudson worked just four innings of his last outing, a win at Florida that went to a rain delay after the Auburn product had thrown 70 pitches. Hudson went 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA in six starts during the month of May.

--Hudson is 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA in three home starts this year. However, the veteran right-hander is 4-7 with a 3.75 ERA in 16 lifetime assignments against Philadelphia.

--Philadelphia slugger Ryan Howard has five homers and a .361 batting average in 36 career at-bats against Hudson. Jayson Werth is 6-for-15 (.400) vs. Hudson, while Raul Ibanez has a .326 average in 36 lifetime at-bats against him.

--Cole Hamels (5-3, 3.82) owns an 8-4 record and 4.02 ERA 15 career starts against Atlanta. The left-hander beat the Braves at home back on May 9. Hamels is 2-2 with a 4.80 ERA in five road outings this season. After a rough April, Hamels returned form during the month of May with a 3-1 record and 2.45 ERA.

--Chipper Jones has feasted on Hamels from the right side of the plate. Jones is 9-for-22 against the young southpaw with four doubles, two homers and a .409 batting average. Brian McCann is hitting .344 versus Hamels in 32 at-bats with five doubles and one homer. Yunel Escobar has struggled mightily against Hamels with just one double to show for 16 at-bats for a .063 average.

--Atlanta is 9-8 against southpaws, while the Phillies are 15-12 on the road.

--The ‘under’ is 26-23 overall for the Braves, 10-10 in their home games.

--The ‘under’ had hit in six consecutive Philadelphia games before Monday's loss went 'over' the total. For the season, the Phillies have watched the ‘under’ go 28-21 overall, 15-12 in their road games.

--The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Rockies at Giants**

--San Francisco (27-23, -28) is 18-10 at home after dropping Monday’s series opener by a 4-0 count against the Rockies.

--Colorado (27-24, +9) is still in fourth place in the NL West, but it is right in the thick of this loop that’s currently being led by the surprise Padres.

--San Francisco LHP Barry Zito (6-2, 2.94) owns a 5-2 record and 2.00 ERA in 12 career starts against division-rival Coloroado. The veteran lefty is 4-1 with a 3.12 ERA in six home starts in 2010.

--Jason Hammel (2-3, 6.93) will toe the rubber for the Rockies, who took an 11-15 road record into Monday’s series opener by the Bay. Hammel is 0-2 with a 3.52 ERA in 23 career innings against San Francisco.

--Hammel has been horrible on the road this season, going 0-2 with an 8.80 ERA in three starts.

--Colorado has a 7-8 record in 15 games against left-handed starters.

--The ‘under’ is 28-21 overall for the Rockies, 14-11 in their road games. Meanwhile, the Giants have watched the ‘under’ go 26-23 overall, 16-12 in their home outings.

**Angels at Royals**

--Los Angeles (26-27, -138) had limped to a 10-14 road ledger, but it did capture a 7-1 win at Kansas City on Monday.

--Kansas City (21-31, -247) has a 9-15 home record after losing Monday's series opener to the Angels.

--L.A. RHP Joel Pineiro (3-5, 4.95) has a 4-3 record and 3.88 lifetime ERA against Kansas City. Peneiro has been awful for the Ha1os in four road starts this year, going 1-3 with 9.78 ERA.

--Kansas City RHP Brian Bannister (4-3, 4.70) is 3-0 with a 3.72 ERA in his last three outings. For the season, Bannister is 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA in five home assignments.

--The Halos are 19-16 against righties, while the Royals are 18-23 versus right-handed pitching.

--The Royals have watched the ‘over’ go 26-24 overall, 13-11 in their home games.

--The ‘over’ is 27-25 overall for the Angels, 12-12 in their road games.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--White Sox LHP Mark Buehrle has an 11-4 record and 3.07 career ERA against Tuesday’s foe, Texas.

--Boston RHP John Lackey has always done outstanding work against the A’s, his division rivals from his days with the Angels. Lackey owns a 16-4 record and 2.76 ERA against Oakland, which play Tuesday at Fenway Park against the Red Sox.

--Cincinnati RHP Johnny Cueto will get the ball against St. Louis on Tuesday. Cueto has been marvelous recently, posting a 3-0 record and 1.42 ERA his last three times on the mound.

--The ‘over’ is an MLB-best 40-15 in Arizona games. On the flip side, the ‘under’ is an MLB-best 32-17 overall for Baltimore.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2010, 05:29 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

Nationals at Astros – The Astros are 0-11 since October 04, 2009 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1175 when playing against. The Astros are 0-8 since September 20, 2009 after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $850 when playing against.

Rays at Blue Jays – The Rays are 0-6 since May 28, 2009 on the road vs a team that has won at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $635 when playing against. The Rays are 0-6 since April 11, 2009 when Jeff Niemann starts on the road after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $635 when playing against. The Rays are 0-4 since May 01, 2010 as a 140+ favorite when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start after a loss for a net profit of $650 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 0-5 since May 04, 2009 when Brian Tallet starts at home vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $540 when playing against.

Phillies at Braves – The Phillies are 0-6 since August 02, 2009 when Cole Hamels starts on the road after a quality start for a net profit of $905 when playing against. The Phillies are 4-0 since May 24, 2009 when Cole Hamels starts as a road dog for a net profit of $525. The Braves are 0-6 since May 02, 2009 after a win in which they left fewer than 10 men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $780 when playing against.

Reds at Cardinals – The Reds are 0-8 since September 08, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $832 when playing against. The Reds are 7-0 since September 12, 2009 when Johnny Cueto starts after a quality start for a net profit of $800. The Cardinals are 7-0 since April 19, 2010 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $700.

Diamondbacks at Dodgers – The Diamondbacks are 0-9 since May 04, 2009 after a loss in which they did not draw a walk for a net profit of $950 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 since August 19, 2009 when Dan Haren starts as a dog for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Rockies at Giants – The Rockies are 0-6 since July 01, 2009 when Jason Hammel starts on the road after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $610 when playing against.

Twins at Mariners – The Mariners are 0-7 since April 12, 2010 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $905 when playing against. The Mariners are 7-0 since July 28, 2009 as a home favorite when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $700

Brewers at Marlins – The Brewers are 0-9 since May 24, 2009 when David Bush starts vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $970 when playing against. The Brewers are 5-0 since September 03, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $810. The Marlins are 0-4 since May 22, 2009 when Ricky Nolasco starts at home after he went less than 5 innings in his previous start for a net profit of $540 when playing against.

Mets at Padres – The Mets are 0-7 since September 02, 2009 on the road after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $725 when playing against. The Mets are 5-0 since June 16, 2009 when Michael Pelfrey starts within 20 cents of pickem after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $560.

Cubs at Pirates – The Cubs are 0-7 since August 31, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $1085 when playing against. The Cubs are 6-0 since May 07, 2009 when Ted Lilly starts as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $600. The Pirates are 5-0 since September 28, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $790

Athletics at Red Sox – The Athletics are 6-0 since August 31, 2009 when Gio Gonzalez starts after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $630.

Angels at Royals – The Angels are 12-0 since April 28, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $1210. The Angels are 6-0 since May 08, 2009 after a win in which they did not walk the opponent for a net profit of $615. The Royals are 0-5 since June 20, 2009 when Brian Bannister starts at home after the team lost their last three games for a net profit of $500 when playing against.

Indians at Tigers – The Indians are 0-11 since May 15, 2009 as a road 140+ dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $1100 when playing against. The Tigers are 9-0 since June 06, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $900. The Tigers are 8-0 since April 10, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $800.

Rangers at White Sox – The White Sox are 0-7 since August 09, 2009 as a favorite when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $995 when playing against. The White Sox are 0-7 since July 04, 2009 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $715 when playing against.

Orioles at Yankees – The Orioles are 0-10 since August 09, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Yankees are 10-0 since August 11, 2009 as a 200+ favorite when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1000. The Yankees are 8-0 since April 10, 2009 after a 5+ run win and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $815.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2010, 08:26 PM

June’s Best and Worst MLB Hurlers

If it’s June, school is out. And so too will be the NBA (we think). It’s also the time of the season when MLB pitchers look to ace exams in hopes of keeping their teams in the pennant chase. To get a better feel on what to expect, Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com examines their results from exams in the past.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of June. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in June team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each June over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with July’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Floyd, Gavin • 10-2
The White Sox are hoping for quick reversal for what has been disappointing season for right-hander at 2-5 and unseemly 6.02 ERA. His manager has been riding him about his lack of mental toughness this season.
Haren, Dan • 13-4
After showing great consistency in Arizona uniform, Haren has been like his D-Backs teammates with 5-4 record and 5.35 ERA. Though his strikeout to walk ratio is still among the best in the big leagues, he grooved far too many pitches in permitting 16 home runs.

Hernandez, Felix • 12-2
It’s time for the “King” to start pitching like one. Hernandez hasn’t won a game since April (neither has Seattle in his starts), saddled with lack of run support and his occasional poor pitching. Time for Felix to elevate his game.

Kazmir, Scott • 8-4
The Angels lefty is becoming known for giving up big innings, explaining 3-5 record and 6.34 ERA. Amazingly, he’s been deplorable against left-hand hitters who are batting incomprehensible .500 against him starting June, compared to .238 vs. RH swingers.

Lackey, John • 11-4
The tall Texan has been a mild disappointment in Boston with 4.84 ERA to go with his 5-3 record. Lackey doesn’t have the over-powering hard stuff any longer and has to get by on guile, throwing in a smaller ballpark.

Nolasco, Ricky • 8-2
The sturdy Nolasco (4-4) still is throwing strikes, but having trouble hitting his spots deep in the count. He only totaled 15 K’s in May after having 29 punch-outs in same number of starts (5) in April. If he gets the feel of fastball or slider back, he should have another outstanding June.

Pettitte, Andy • 11-5
The 37-year port-sider might be having his best season yet in his career with 7-1 mark and 2.48 ERA. What’s fun to watch about Pettitte these days is where the catcher puts the glove that is where he throws the ball, which helps him get the benefit of the doubt from umpires.

Wakefield, Tim • 11-5
Being used as spot starter to fill in for injured Boston pitchers.

Zambrano, Carlos • 14-3
Believed to be rejoining the starting rotation this month, the Cubs could use a typical June from Big Z.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Arroyo, Bronson • 4-13
The Reds starter should have the last name of yo-yo, since that is how he tends to pitch. Obviously this month falls in the “down” category.

Blanton, Joe • 5-12
Blanton has been unimpressive since coming off the disabled list with 1-4 record and 5.68 ERA. Pitches are up in the zone and being ripped.

Garland, Jon • 5-11
The much-traveled hurler has found a home at spacious Petco Park and is 6-2 with sharp 2.55 ERA this season. At home in San Diego, Garland is Ubaldo-like with miniscule 1.15 ERA. Can he keep it going?

Hernandez, Livan • 6-12
Washington has gotten far more than they could have ever expected from Hernandez, who is 4-2 with superb 2.15 ERA. In the last few years, he’s gotten off to starts somewhat similar, but by the third month of the season, the bite of his pitches starts to lose effectiveness and the spots he was wearing out are not as consistent, leading to more hits, runs and defeats piling up.

Hudson, Tim • 4-8
Hudson is healthier than he’s been in years (5-1, 2.24), which might be the greatest factor in how he performs this month.

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