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**StarDust Bum** · 05-30-2010, 10:40 AM

Sunday Night Baseball Betting Preview

Some much-needed clutch hitting helped put Minnesota in position to sweep its second series of the season. The Twins try for a fourth straight victory Sunday while looking to sweep the visiting Texas Rangers for the first time in almost three years. Delmon Young’s bases-loaded, two-run double highlighted a six-run seventh inning in Minnesota’s 8-3 win over Texas on Saturday.

The Twins (29-20, +3.3 units), who took Friday’s series opener 2-1, now have a chance for their first series sweep since winning three games against Detroit from May 3-5. They haven’t swept Texas since Sept. 17-19, 2007, at the Metrodome.

Though the Twins lead the AL Central and are among the best clubs in the league in both runs (240) and on-base percentage (.357), they entered Saturday’s contest batting .167 with the bases loaded. “I’d rather have more problems with the bases loaded than never get bases loaded,” said Young, a lifetime .352 hitter against Texas.

Young, batting .320 with eight RBIs in his last seven games overall, came through Saturday and J.J. Hardy followed with a two-run single to help the Twins overcome a 2-0 deficit and improve to 17-9 at Target Field and are 6-3 in the final game of a series since late April.

“I’ve seen some games where we had the bases loaded four or five times and don’t get a run in,” said Minnesota’s Orlando Hudson, who had a double, a homer and three RBIs. “It’s one of those things.”

After Carl Pavano pitched a solid seven innings Saturday, Minnesota hopes to get a solid effort from Scott Baker (4-4, 4.48 ERA, 1.326 WHIP) as he tries to avoid a third straight loss.

The Twins’ opening-day starter, Baker had allowed eight runs and 18 hits in 12 innings while losing his two previous starts before giving up three hits in five scoreless innings of Tuesday’s suspended game against the New York Yankees. He didn’t get a decision in Minnesota’s eventual 1-0 defeat; however the Twins are 13-3 in his last 16 home starts.

The right-hander is 2-2 with a 5.25 ERA in six starts against the Rangers (26-23, -1.1).

Texas has dropped three straight and five of six since winning a season-high five in a row, falling one-half game behind Oakland for the AL West lead in the process. The Rangers are batting .220 and have totaled six runs during the three-game skid, but are 27-14 (+16.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 over the last three seasons.

All-Star second baseman Ian Kinsler has been a big part of the struggles, going 1 for 12 in the last three games and 0 for 4 on Saturday and he and his teammates are 2-5 off a loss.

Derek Holland (2-0, 2.95, 1.038) will make his third start since the Rangers called him up from Triple-A Oklahoma City on May 12. After winning his first two starts, Holland allowed three runs and four hits in six innings of a 5-4, 10-inning loss against the Chicago Cubs on May 22. “My pitches were up. It’s my job to get the ball down,” he told the Rangers’ official website.

The left-hander, who allowed a run in an inning of relief in a 5-2 loss at Kansas City on Wednesday, is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA in two starts against the Twins.

The Rangers have lost eight of their last nine on the road, falling to 8-14 away from home on the season.

Minnesota is a -137 ML favorite with total Ov8.5 at Sportsbook.com and is 16-4 when the number range is -100 to -150 this season. On Sunday, the Twins’ contests tend to be lower scoring and they are 23-11 UNDER on this day of the week since last year. Texas is 5-13 as an underdog of +150 or less and 27-14 UNDER as an underdog of +125 to +175.
This is the Sunday night game on ESPN2 this week; beginning at 8:05 Eastern and the Twinkies are 43-18 against left-handed starters since 2008.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-30-2010, 10:41 AM

Coca-Cola 600 an endurance test for drivers, bettors

The second of Sunday’s big race events is NASCAR’s Coca-Cola 600. It is the Cup Series’ longest race of the season, both in terms of time and mileage. That, combined with the Memorial Day holiday weekend atmosphere makes it one of the highlights on the annual schedule. The Coca-Cola 600 is run at Lowe’s Motor Speedway in Concord, N.C., right in the heart of NASCAR country and just miles from most racing teams’ headquarters as well as the sport’s new Hall of Fame in Charlotte. Needless to say, drivers covet a victory in this event. According to oddsmakers, those most likely to attain that goal this Sunday are Jimmie Johnson, at 4-1 odds, and Kyle Busch, at 6-1. Jeff Gordon (7-1), Denny Hamlin (8-1), Matt Kenseth (8-1), and Kasey Kahne (9-1) are also considered top contenders.

After a scintillating All-star event at Lowe’s Motor Speedway last weekend, the NASCAR circuit resumes point series racing in this event. Kurt Busch captured the Checkered Flag and the $1 Million prize by being the star of stars last Saturday, yet he is listed at 12-1 for this race, behind some nine other drivers. Perhaps oddsmakers are more in tune than some race fans believe, as Busch’s numbers at Charlotte over the last two years leave something to be desired (15.8 avg. finish)

Of course, it seems that anytime the series comes to Lowe’s Motor Speedway, the first driver that anyone wants to talk about it Jimmie Johnson, as for a stretch from 2003-05, he won five of six point races at this track. However, these people seem to ignore the fact that his numbers since have not been nearly as impressive. In fact, over the last four races at LMS, all in the COT, Johnson’s average finish is just 14.4. However, he did win the last race here in the fall on his way to a 4th straight championship, and when combined with a dominant but winless effort in the All-star race last week, seems to be commanding respect again. For his career at Charlotte, Johnson owns six wins, three other Top 5’s, and a total of 1,334 laps led in 17 starts.

Kyle Busch is definitely a driver to keep an eye on, as he and Kasey Kahne are the only two active entrants with five straight Top 10 finishes at Lowe’s. Plus, the younger Busch has heated up lately, heading into this race with six straight Top 10 finishes, including two race wins, the latest at Dover two weeks ago. Busch leads the circuit with 248 laps led in the four COT races run at this track over the last two years, ahead of Jimmie Johnson’s 200, Kahne’s 133, and Jeff Gordon’s 111. With his recent surge, Busch has climbed all the way up to second in the season points. Kahne, while clearly not enjoying the 2010 success that Busch has, sitting in just 21st place, has a resume of success at Lowe’s that includes three wins and seven Top 10’s in 12 career starts. He is desperate for a good run too.

Other drivers to keep an eye on for this weekend are Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, and Matt Kenseth, each with varying degrees of success at Charlotte and in 2010. Hamlin is the hottest of the three, and when combined with Kyle Busch, has given the Joe Gibbs Racing Team quite a dynamic duo. At 8-1, he could easily steal a win here. Gordon has been due for a victory since his last one over a year ago and still sits 5th in season points. Suprisingly, that is behind Kenseth, who rather quietly has climbed up to 3rd. He may be ready to reach Victory Lane for the first time as he tends to do well in long, drawn out events like this where endurance is one of the biggest factors. Mark Martin (12-1), points leader Kevin Harvick (15-1), and Tony Stewart (15-1) are also drivers capable of contending if their crew chiefs can find the right set up to attack what is always a dramatically changing racetrack because of the afternoon start time and nighttime finish.

On the list of drivers to avoid for Sunday you’ll find names like Clint Bowyer, Juan Montoya, Carl Edwards, Jamie McMurray, and Dale Earnhardt, Jr.. None of them has averaged better than a 19.8 finish at Lowe’s over the last two years and none is particularly enjoying his best racing at this point in the season. That factor has become as important as any other when analyzing weekly races in NASCAR.

As indicated earlier, Lowe’s is located in the heart of NASCAR country and is annually given two scheduled races plus the all-star event. The CC-600 is a true test of each driver’s mettle and endurance, a 400-lap marathon is also challenging for the crew chiefs and pit crews as well. The track is a 1.5-mile “cookie cutter” similar to many others on the circuit. In fact, when handicapping this race, be sure to consider that Jimmie Johnson won the race in Las Vegas, Kurt Busch won the following week in Atlanta, and Denny Hamlin won at Texas, all earlier this spring. Of course, Busch owns the All-star Trophy as well. Like most mile-and-a-half tracks, the winner here usually boasts a recipe of strong horsepower, good downforce, and timely pit strategy.

This week’s action fires up with early qualifying on Thursday night. There are a couple of interesting stats to keep an eye on concerning qualifying. First, while the races at Charlotte are typically lengthy and provide drivers plenty of time to work their way to the front, history indicates that 58% of the winners start in the Top 5, including Johnson, who started on the pole in fall. Only two of 100 drivers have ever won at Lowe’s in the modern era when starting worse than 22nd. In terms of practice speeds, they have proven important too, with half of the last 10 winners finishing Happy Hour ranked in the Top 4 among starting drivers. The Coca-Cola 600 race is slotted for about 5:45 PM ET Sunday. As always the ******* NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are here to prepare you for the racing…

**StarDust Bum** · 05-30-2010, 10:42 AM

Handful of drivers capable of winning Indy 500

Sunday is racing’s biggest day of the year in America, as once again, motorsports will dominate the sports schedule from morning till night. Two races, 1100 miles of high speed action are on tap, starting with the 94th running of the Indianapolis 500 at noon eastern. Then, in the late afternoon, the NASCAR Cup Series will drop the green flag at the Coca-Cola 600 from Charlotte. Here’s a look at this year’s version of the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing”, the Indy 500. Incidentally, Helio Castroneves, of Team Penske, has been installed as the favorite by Sportsbook.com, at 2.5 to 1 odds, which should comes as a surprise, since he has won this race three times in his career, including last year, and is starting on the pole on Sunday.

Castroneves’ win last May at Indianapolis Motor Speedway was a memorable one after the personal issues he had endured just earlier. In fact, Helio Castroneves was overcome by emotion in a hug with team owner Roger Penske after he turned his red-and-white car into Victory Lane. “Thanks for giving my life back,” Castroneves said between sobs.

He could’ve lost it all. He could’ve gone to prison for six years. Instead, charges were dropped and he was celebrating another win at the Indianapolis 500. From accused tax cheat to Indy champion, Castroneves became the ninth driver to win the historic race three times. He’ll go for number four on Sunday, and with it, he would join A.J. Foyt, Rick Mears and Al Unser as the race's only four-time winners. He also would accomplish the feat faster than any of those racing legends. Starting in the 1st position for a second straight year, and sitting 3rd in the current point standings, he is clearly the man to beat.

There are four drivers other than Castroneves who are considered serious contenders and each has plenty of reason to believe he can win. Listed at 3.5 to 1 is Scott Dixon, the 2008 Indy 500 winner who drives for Chip Ganassi Racing. Dixon is currently 2nd in the Izod Indy Car Points Standings and will be 6th on the starting grid. He is working on a string of four straight Top 6 finishes at this race, and is the series’ most recent winner, at Kansas.

Dario Franchitti and Ryan Briscoe are priced at 4-1 odds. Franchitti won the rain-shortened 2007 Indy 500 but hasn’t finished better than 6th in any of his other five starts here. He is currently 5th in points and will be starting 3rd on the grid. Expect a strong finish, but contending for the win may be another story. Briscoe is Castroneves’ teammate but looking for his first Indy 500 victory. He comes in with an average finish of 13.3 at Indy with an overall best of 5th in 2007. After starting 2nd and 3rd in this race the last two years, Briscoe drops back to the second row and 4th overall for 2010. He is also just 7th in points. Considering all of that, he seems to be a bit overpriced.

The driver with the most value at this point would seem to be series points leader Will Power, who starts just outside Castroneves on the front row. Power has not only shown great speed all month long at Indy, he has the hunger of a young driver that seeks his first benchmark race victory. While he did win the Izod season’s first two races in Brazil and St. Petersburg, neither of those races boasts the notoriety and prize purse of the Indy 500. This will be the third start in this race for Power, and he finished 5th a year ago. Also driving for Team Penske, this youngster certainly has the support to reach Victory Lane.

Beyond that handful of highly priced favorites, there is a group of drivers who could bode well in matchups or perhaps pull the major surprise on Sunday. How about Alex Tagliani for instance, priced at 20 to 1. He is starting 5th and enjoyed a strong 11th place finish in his rookie year of 2009 at Indianapolis. Ryan Hunter-Reay, a former Champ car series title winner, starts just 17th but is 4th in points, won at Long Beach earlier this season, and scored a 6th place finish here in ‘08. For Hunter-Reay, a win would pay a handsome 30 to 1. Dan Wheldon, at 25 to 1, is the only other driver in the field not mentioned to this point that has previously won an Indy 500, that coming in ’05.

Graham Rahal (field bet, 25 to 1), Marco Andretti (20 to 1), and Danica Patrick (30 to 1) are some of the big names that might garner some consideration heading into Sunday’s race, but none is starting better than 7th (Rahal), and none is higher than 13th in season points (Andretti). Rahal’s history at Indy is bleak, with only finishes of 31st last year and 33rd in ’08 to his credit. Andretti has been solid at this track, and boasts a 3rd place finish in ’08 and a runner-up effort in ’06. Patrick finished 3rd last year and has four career Top 8 finishes in five Indy 500 starts.

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is perhaps the world’s most famous racing facility, but quite frankly, that isn’t for its challenges as a raceway, more for its size and tradition. In reality, the Brickyard is one of the more simple tracks the IRL drivers see each year. It is flat, symmetrical, and has two distinctly long straightaways. For this reason, it is usually pure speed that wins at Indy. This is the reason that pole sitting drivers have had such success in this race. In fact, in the last 35 years, only six drivers have gone from starting worse than 10th to win. Furthermore, if you go back 72 years in this prestigious event, only one driver has started outside of the Top 20 starting positions and won. That would seem to indicate that anyone from Thomas Scheckter on back in the starting grid should be removed from winning consideration in wagers. Among the big names in that group would be Patrick, John Andretti, Vitor Meira, and Tony Kanaan. Incidentally, Andretti is skipping his usual turn in the NASCAR Cup Series to drive in this event.

Starting time for the 93rd Indy 500 is 12:00 PM ET, and the winner claims the famed Borg-Warner Trophy, a bottle of milk and at least a $2,500,000 payday. Plus, that driver will of course, have his/her name etched in the history of open-wheel motorsports forever.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-30-2010, 10:43 AM

Sunday Tips

The final Sunday of May involves plenty of intriguing matchups, including several contests on the West Coast. The Padres look to stay atop the NL West against the Nationals while the Giants and D-Backs close out their series by the Bay. We'll start at Coors Field with the Dodgers trying to keep up their domination of the Rockies.

Dodgers at Rockies - 3:10 PM EST

Los Angeles has owned this series, especially on the road, as Clayton Kershaw takes the mound for the Dodgers. Colorado's five-game winning streak came to an end on Friday night in a 5-4 loss as L.A. rallied from a 4-0 deficit.

Kershaw (4-3, 2.90 ERA) shut down the Rockies when he last saw them at Chavez Ravine earlier this month. The young southpaw outdueled the NL's best pitcher this season, Ubaldo Jimenez, in a 2-0 victory. Kershaw scattered two hits in eight innings of work, while striking out nine. The lefty was on the wrong side of a 3-0 loss at Chicago his last time out, even though Kershaw has allowed just two earned runs in his last four starts (3-1). The day numbers have been fantastic as opposed to the night stats, as the Dodgers are 5-0 in his matinee starts and 1-4 in his starts underneath the lights.

The Rockies counter with Jhoulys Chacin (3-2, 3.09 ERA), who bounced back after two subpar starts to beat the Diamondbacks. Chacin allowed four hits and two earned runs in six innings against Arizona, after giving up nine earned runs in losses to the Cubs and Nationals. He has seen his ups and downs after not allowing one run in his first two outings of the season, including 7.1 scoreless innings in an 8-0 thrashing of the Dodgers.

Los Angeles is 8-2 the last ten meetings at Coors Field, while five of the games have been decided by one run. The Rockies are 7-1 in their last eight Game 3's of a series, with the lone loss coming in Kershaw's masterpiece over Jimenez back on May 9.

Nationals at Padres - 4:05 PM EST

San Diego and Washington have turned into two of the biggest early-season surprises, but it's the Padres who sit atop the NL West heading into Sunday's series finale. The Padres look to get their bats going against Livan Hernandez, while Jon Garland tries to keep up his hot hand for San Diego.

The Nats have become a mystery at times for bettors this season, cashing in three straight road 'overs' after six consecutive 'unders' on the highway. Hernandez (4-3, 2.08 ERA) has been very consistent for Washington, turning in quality starts in seven of nine outings. If there's one thing you can count on with the former World Series MVP is 'unders,' cashing in eight of nine starts. The Nats are 2-2 in his four away starts, with the last two resulting in losses at Colorado and San Francisco.

The veteran Garland (6-2, 2.10 ERA) has become the best offseason acquisition by far for San Diego, allowing eight earned runs in his last eight starts. Garland tossed a gem in a 1-0 victory over Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals his last time out. The righty yielded six hits in seven scoreless innings, his third scoreless outing in his previous five trips to the mound. Garland has shined most at Petco Park, going 3-0 with an ERA of 0.84 in five home starts.

Washington owns a solid 10-4 record in Game 3's this season, while San Diego has dropped six consecutive games a home favorite.

Diamondbacks at Giants - 4:05 PM EST

San Francisco and Arizona finish off its three-game series at AT&T Park with the Giants going for the series victory. After the D-Backs lit up Giants' pitching in Phoenix two weeks ago, San Francisco returned the favor with a 5-0 shutout on Friday night.

Ian Kennedy (3-3, 3.41 ERA) silenced the San Francisco bats by delivering eight innings of three-hit ball in a 13-1 thrashing at Chase Field on May 19. The former Yankee has pitched well despite Arizona's 4-6 mark in Kennedy's ten starts. The righty has been on the wrong side of two road losses at Atlanta and Colorado, each by one run apiece.

Kennedy defeated Todd Wellemeyer (3-4, 5.36 ERA) in the team's opening meeting in Phoenix, as the Giants' righty was tagged for five earned runs and three homers in five innings. San Francisco has alternated wins and losses in each of his previous six starts, coming off a victory over Washington his last time out.

The D-Backs have lost each of their last seven Game 3's, while San Francisco looks to improve to 7-1 in its previous eight at home.

Rangers at Twins - 8:05 PM EST

Minnesota goes for the sweep at Target Field after holding Texas to just three runs in the first two wins of this series. The Twins put up six runs in the seventh inning of Saturday's 8-3 triumph, as Carl Pavano scattered seven hits and two runs in seven innings for the victory.

Scott Baker (4-4, 4.48 ERA) has not won in his last three starts, all Twins losses to the Yankees and Red Sox. Baker's outing against New York was cut short due to the game being suspended by rain after five innings. The righty allowed three hits in five scoreless innings, but the Yankees pulled out a 1-0 win when the game continued the next day. The Twins finished 3-0 in Baker's three starts against the Rangers last season, while four of his six career starts versus Texas have finished 'under' the total.

The Rangers counter with lefty Derek Holland (2-0, 2.95 ERA), who looks for his third quality start in four tries. The southpaw dominated Oakland in his season debut, but has allowed two homers in each of his last two starts against the Cubs and Angels. Holland has pitched into the sixth inning in each of his three outings, while hurling an inning of relief against the Royals on Wednesday. This is Holland's first road start of the season, as Texas is 1-7 in his last eight starts on the highway.

Texas has struggled on the road recently by dropping seven of its previous eight away from Arlington, while Minnesota is 5-1 the last six Game 3's of a series.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-30-2010, 10:44 AM

Time to fade the Rays?

Hell froze over in 2008 when the Rays erased years of mediocrity with an American League pennant and a trip to their first World Series. Even though they fell to third place in the AL East last season, optimism was high that 2010 would be a great year for Tampa Bay.

That optimism has been warranted up to this point as Joe Maddon’s club has the best record in the game. Yet all is not well in the Trop right now. Tampa Bay has found itself in the middle of a slump where they have dropped five of its last eight tests. The most jarring issue in this slump was getting swept in three games by the once downtrodden Red Sox.

I’m sure that most of the Rays’ fans and backers at the betting windows will say there is nothing to worry about right now. After all, there is still four months left in the regular season and they hold a 3 ½-game lead over the Yankees at the time of release. While both of those points are true, the warning signs are there for all to see.

Tampa Bay’s starting pitching has been touted as the most impressive in the game today. It’s hard to argue against a rotation that has the best combined earned run average (2.93), tops in innings pitched (319.2) and are fourth in the big leagues in strikeouts (253).

What worries me about the Rays’ starting staff is the workload that they are taking on right now. They’re averaging almost seven innings per start after two months of play. Hurlers like Matt Garza and James Shields have proven they have what it takes to handle the wear and tear. The exact same thing can be said of Jeff Neimann and David Price. When it comes to Wade Davis…well…the jury is still out.

Davis has had some great outings in his first full season at this level, evidenced by wins at both Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium. But he has also had some suspect starts this year; look no further than his 3.2 IP performance on May 24 against the BoSox.

Does this mean that Davis is going to be a bust when all is said and done? Not in the least. Price went through a pair of slumps in 2009, which was his first full year at this level. And that isn’t even true since the Vandy alum didn’t escape the clutches of Durham until late May.

Should the pitching staff begin to tire out as the year progresses, then the Rays will have to rely on their offense to get wins. If the start of this season is any suggestion, then we could see a collapse. Tampa Bay is hitting just .254 as a team right now – easily the worst we’ve seen out of this team since they made the Fall Classic in ’08. And they are hitting .236 during this slump.

You can’t blame Evan Longoria (.321, 10 HR, 40 RBI) or Carl Crawford (.317, 23 RBI, 15 SB) for lack of trying at the plate. Carlos Pena, on the other hand, needs a hug or something to get his happy ass back in gear. Pena is hitting a mind-boggling bad .181 with just eight homers. To give you an idea how bad that is, Kansas City’s error guru Alberto Callaspo has seven home runs this year.

So how are we supposed to handle the Rays at the betting window? When it comes to next week, it’s going to be a bit of hammer and fade. They have a three-game set in Toronto that kicks off on Memorial Day. The Blue Jays have lived on the long ball a lot this season, which could be a good thing since Tampa Bay has allowed 36 four-baggers thus far. But the Rays do have the added advantage of going 4-2 at Rogers Centre in 2009.

A trip to Arlington for a three-game date with the AL West leading Rangers follows up the trip in Canada. Tampa Bay hasn’t had a lot of luck deep in the heart of Texas, evidenced by a 1-5 mark in 2009 and 7-11 over the last three years. What you could also consider in those games with the Rangers is playing the ‘over’ as it holds a slight 10-8 advantage in those tests.

**Tnbreakers** · 05-30-2010, 10:58 AM

Bol Bum!

**Spark** · 05-30-2010, 11:21 AM

Get em Bum

Good Luck

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