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**bryce** · 05-27-2010, 05:42 PM

Good luck SDB!!

**StarDust Bum** · 05-27-2010, 06:28 PM

Lakers favored to regain upper hand

What’s the old saying, “When mama’s not happy, nobody’s happy”. A form of that saying is taking place in the Los Angeles Lakers locker room, with Kobe Bryant taking the place of mama.

“We have to play with a sense of urgency,” Bryant said after his team lost in the desert for second time, “and understand this team can beat us.”

Kobe, when asked what was wrong, didn’t mince words and tersely stated his feelings. “We lost the game,” Bryant said, “because our defense sucked.

“Our focus was on the other side of the floor, which doesn’t win championships. So we need to get back to ground zero when it comes to that.”

That’s the conundrum with the 2009-10 Lakers squad, every good stretch of basketball means “Margaritaville” and the passion and intensity necessary dwindles with prosperity.

Bryant had 74 points, 21 assists and 16 rebounds in two games in downtown Phoenix, but didn’t get enough assistance from his supporting cast.

“Kobe had a great game,” Lamar Odom said about Game 4. “Too bad we weren’t able to come along with him.”

Los Angeles returns to the Staples Center where they are 41-7 (21-26-1 ATS) this season and need to reestablish control of the series which is tied at 2-2.

The Lakers are 12-3 ATS after three or more consecutive Over’s this year and while Kobe is complaining about the defensive effort, other wonder if the Suns zone defense has gotten into the heads of L.A. players.

"It's the zone," Lakers center Andrew Bynum admitted. "We're settling for outside jump shots. They were out there moving that ball, they were confident playing at home and they really just shot the ball well. They had everybody spaced out so everybody's running around."

Though, as coach Phil Jackson pointed out, his team has shot 48.3 and 49.5 percent in the last two losses while averaging 107.5 points per game, but does some of the hesitation on the Lakers offense carry over unto the defensive end, causing lapses in concentration for a club not known for “Terminator” single-mindedness.

What the Lakers zone offense has also lacked is getting the ball into high post consistently, with cutters running baseline or weakside cutters slashing to the rim. While Ron Artest is still a fine defensive player, the loss of Trevor Ariza hurts the Lakers in this situation, since he has greater quickness, understands how to cut more effectively to the basket and is a more consistent three-point shooter than Artest.

Phoenix is bubbling with confidence and is 14-6 ATS in road encounters after a combined score of 205 points or more in a trio of tilts this season.

Channing Frye found his misplaced jump shot and the Suns reserves lambasted the Lakers bench 54-20 after being mildly ineffective for the first three games. "The bench played fantastic," the Suns' Steve Nash said.
Coach Alvin Gentry is earning his coaching “onions” as he left his bench players in the game for almost nine minutes of the final quarter, since they had produced 18-3 run, essentially putting Los Angeles away.

"We believe in those guys and they really believe in themselves," Gentry said. "I thought they were much better defensively than they were offensively, and they were great offensively."

Though no Phoenix player would publicly admit this, they know a Game 5 upset gives them best chance to win the series with Saturday’s conflict back at Planet Orange. A Game 7 win in L.A. would a monumental task to pull off for Phoenix.

Bookmaker.com has the Lakers as 7.5-point pick, with total of 217.5. Pau Gasol and the rest of his teammates have to play like they did during eight-game postseason winning streak (7-1 ATS) and they are 18-5 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996. The Suns are 33-14 ATS after allowing 105 points or more and will have to solve the Los Angeles team in the yellow uniforms since they are 1-7 and 2-6 ATS in L.A.

TNT continues with the series at 9:00 Eastern and the Lake Show is 8-0 OVER after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-27-2010, 06:29 PM

Baseball system has Tampa Bay breaking slump

It was bound to happen; Tampa Bay (32-15, +9.2 units) is officially in their first slump of the year, having been swept at home by Boston in three games. The Rays “Sox” homestand continues and they will look for much better outcomes against the team from Chicago.

The Rays offense has been the culprit of their failures, touching home plate just four times against the Red Sox and have scored more than four runs only once in their last six tries.

Tampa Bay has fallen to third in the American League in runs scored in part because their team batting average is now seventh (.256), with players like B.J. Upton slumping (batting .146 in his last 23 games).

Starting pitcher Jeff Niemann (4-0, 2.54 ERA) would certainly appreciate an offensive lift since he has yet to register a win at Tropicana Field this season despite 2.95 ERA in his four starts. Though Tampa Bay has scored 19 runs in Niemann’s starting assignments at the Trop, 14 of those runs have come after he’s been taken out of the game, giving him no decisions. At least the Rays bullpen continues to excel with 3.41 ERA and 82.4 percent save percentage.

Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox (20-26, -9.6 units) wish they had the kind of problems Tampa Bay has. Guillen’s club has not hit all season as evidenced by .240 batting average (13th) and ranking 10th in the AL in runs scored (4.2) and on-base percentage (.316).

Guillen might be a little testy coming into this four-game series having been tossed from yesterday’s win in Cleveland. The Sox skipper is also tired of witnessing tonight starting pitcher Gavin Floyd (2-4, 6.31) not pitching up to capabilities.

“He is not a kid any more (referring to Floyd), he’s not a guy we need to teach or be careful what he is going to do, how many pitches he’s going to throw,” manager Ozzie Guillen said. He has stuff to win 20 games; it’s about making him believe that.”

Floyd does have good numbers in a couple areas with a better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio (43-19) and has only been taken deep four times in nine starts. His downfall has been a combination of leaving the ball up in the zone and catching too much of the plate, being tagged for 66 hits in 51 1/3 innings.
The Rays opened as -165 money line favorites and the morning line has them up to -177 at Bookmaker.com. Has the word on this superb system gotten out?

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, with a mediocre AL team batting average of .260 or less, against a club with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), whose starting pitcher gives up one home run or less every other start.

Betting against teams like the Pale Hose in this spot has been profitable with 43-9, 82.7 percent record the previous five seasons. Tampa Bay usually responds well to poor pitching performances like yesterday with 13-2 mark in home games after allowing nine runs or more over the last three seasons.

Rays’ pitcher Niemann has enjoyed excellent success against below average competition and is 18-4 pitching against a team with a losing record since last year. (Rays Record)

For the skeptical sports betting participant, this should be the knockout punch –Manager Joe Maddon’s squad is 18-0 at home after scoring four runs or less three straight games since 2008.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-27-2010, 06:30 PM

Game 5, Suns at Lakers

Just in time and seemingly from out of nowhere, the 2010 NBA Playoffs are interesting all of a sudden. For that, we salute the Suns, who bounced back from a pair of losses in Tinseltown to even their series with the Lakers by winning Games 3 and 4 at home.

Now the Western Conference finals move back to Staples Center, where Los Angeles (67-29 straight up, 41-52-3 against the spread) will host Phoenix in a crucial Game 5 on Thursday night. As of this afternoon, most books were listing Phil Jackson’s team as an eight-point favorite with a total of 217.

Gamblers can back Phoenix (64-32 SU, 58-37-1 ATS) to win outright for a plus-320 return (risk $100 to win $320).

Alvin Gentry’s squad got a monster lift from its bench in the second and fourth quarters, riding the group’s 54 points to beat L.A. by a 115-106 count as a 1 ½-point home underdog.

Channing Frye, mired in a miserable shooting slump going into Game 4, erupted in the second quarter and sparked Phoenix to a 41-32 stanza that left it with a nine-point lead at intermission. Frye finished with 14 points, as he drained four 3-pointers from beyond the arc.

For the game, the Phoenix bench made 20-of-32 shots and 9-of-20 treys. Leandro Barbosa added 14 points, while Jared Dudley scored 11. Amare Stoudemire, who exploded for 42 points in Game 3, had 21 points and eight rebounds on Tuesday night. Steve Nash, playing with a broken nose, didn’t shoot well but was able to produce 15 points, eight assists and four boards.

"Bench play was one key to the Suns' Game 4 victory and they will need that second unit to have to have similar success back in L.A., said veteran VegasInsider.com handicapper Mark Franco, who is No. 1 on VI in the NBA. "To have any chance of beating the Lakers on the road, Phoenix's bench has to produce like that again."

The scary thing for the Lakers is they couldn’t win Game 4 even with Kobe Bryant playing splendidly. Bryant finished with 38 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds. Lamar Odom, who was marvelous in Games 1 and 2 before playing a clunker in Game 3, had 15 points and 10 boards in 35 minutes off the bench.

The Suns failed to cover the number in both Games 1 and 2 in L.A. However, they are 26-22 SU and 27-21 ATS on the road this season.

With that said, L.A. has certainly been in this type of situation before, including its first-round series against Oklahoma City. In fact, the Lakers have won eight straight Game 5’s dating back to a 2007 loss to Phoenix.

The ‘over’ is on a 7-0-1 run for the Lakers in their last eight games. For the season, they have watched the ‘under’ go 49-45-2 overall, 25-22-1 in their home games. Meanwhile, the ‘under’ is 48-45-3 overall for the Suns, 26-20-2 in their road games.

Tip-off for tonight’s Game 5 at Staples is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--With Phoenix leading by nine at halftime of Game 4, most books installed the Lakers as four-point favorites for second-half wagers. This equated to bettors taking L.A. as a five-point underdog. Despite some line value, gamblers taking the Lakers were left ripping up their tickets in the nine-point loss.

--Depending on the line and when a total bet was placed, the ‘over’ has cashed in all four games of this series. However, with Game 4 hitting 221 combined points, there were bettors out there who may have pushed on ‘under’ bets or even won if they got the wager in early since a few books were in the 221-222 range on Monday.

--After the Game 4 loss, Bryant was in vintage clown mode at the postgame presser. Kobe said, “Everybody wants to talk about the offensive side of the ball, but that’s not what wins championships.” Really, Kobe? Any particular reason why it took you more than 10 years in the NBA before you realized that?

--Orlando captured a 109-92 win as a four-point favorite in last night’s Game 5 at Amway Arena. The Magic, who are now down 3-2 in the East finals, have won back-to-back games and appear capable of potentially becoming the first team in NBA history to rally from a 0-3 postseason deficit.

--With Glen ‘Big Baby’ Davis and Marquis Daniels sustaining concussions in Game 5, both are very “questionable” for Friday’s Game 6 back in Beantown. Also, Kendrick Perkins was issued a pair of technical fouls and ejected from last night’s Celtics’ loss. Both tech’s were terrible calls and the last was rescinded by the league earlier today. Still, Perkins will face a one-game suspension for a potential Game 7 (or Game 1 of the finals) if he gets another technical foul in Game 6 because it would be his seventh of the playoffs. Last but not least, Rasheed Wallace tweaked his back before fouling out midway through the fourth quarter. Wallace will certainly play, but he might not be at full speed.

--I don’t see Marquis Daniels vacationing in Orlando this summer. First, his stepdad, who was once convicted of second-degree murder and served 11 years in prison, was tasered by police at Game 2 and now Daniels gets a concussion in Game 5.

--Zach Randolph had an All-Star season for the Memphis Grizzlies, but it appears he could be in trouble with the law again. Randolph isn't facing charges yet, but he has been implicated in a major drug investigation in Indianapolis.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-27-2010, 06:31 PM

Home Sweet Home

Game 5 - L.A. Lakers vs. Phoenix
The Numbers

The Lakers are anywhere from -7 to -7.5 in this Game 5 which is right around where they were favored by in Game 2 at home. The total sits around 219 which is pretty close to where it has been the last two games. With the first four games of this series going 'over' don’t be surprised to see this number go up.

Home Cooking

Home court advantage is important come playoff time and the home court has been a major factor in this series thus far as the host has won and covered all four games. The margins haven’t even been close which is rather surprising for a conference finals series.

The average margin of victory has been 12.8 PPG while the average cover has been 9.4 PPG so there has not been a lot of sweating taking place for bettors. The home team and the over, an ever popular square parlay, has cashed all four tickets thus far.

This trend has carried over from the regular season for the most part. In the four regular season meetings, the home team went 3-1 straight up and against the spread with the lone blemish being the Lakers winning in Phoenix on Mar. 12 by six points. In total, seven of the last eight meetings have been decided by nine points or more.

Offensive Fireworks

If you like offense, this series has been for you. As mentioned, all four of the series games have surpassed the total with scoring totals of 235, 236, 227 and 221. While the offenses have flourished with the Lakers shooting 53.2 percent and the Suns shooting 48.5 percent, the defenses will be the key going forward.

The Suns have played more zone defense the last two games so the Lakers have now seen it live and on film and have had a chance to practice for it, though Lakers coach Phil Jackson said they knew it was coming before Game 3. Surprisingly, Los Angeles has struggled, if you call shooting 48.8 percent shooting the last two games struggling, because its offense is made to beat the zone.

“The triangle obviously is an overload offense,” Jackson said. “So you basically take a zone into an overload, which is natural anyway. But the idea of the movement that comes out of the overload is important for us. And our movement was poor, was inconsistent.” The advantage goes to Jackson in prepping for Game 5.

Benchwarmers

The Suns bench erupted for 54 points in Game 4 against the Lakers and that type of production will make things very tough for Los Angeles if it keeps up. Both teams are loaded with superstars but it is the reserves on both sides that could very well dictate this outcome and the Suns seem to have the depth edge.

Phoenix’s bench was outscored by the Lakers bench in each of the first three games and by an average of 7.3 PPG but the Suns outscored Los Angeles by 34 points on Tuesday and the five bench players hit a mind-boggling 62.5 percent on 20-of-32 shooting.

“You know, we’re not the most talented team,” Steve Nash said, happily playing up the Suns' underdog status, “but we’ve got depth and we’ve got to make that a staple of our success.” The Phoenix bench did average 30.5 PPG in Los Angeles the first two games so if it keeps that up, depth could reign supreme again.

Injury Concerns

Coming into this series, the big injury concern was on the Lakers side and Kobe Bryant as he is nursing significant knee and finger injuries. It has not affected him so far though as he has been sensational, averaging 33.8 PPG and surpassing 36 points three times.

The time off between the semis and the finals gave Steve Nash time for his eye to heal and open up after the nasty lump he took in Game Four against the Spurs. At the end of Game 3, he broke his nose and his numbers on Tuesday were down as he had a poor shooting night and dished out just eight assists. We will wait and see if the dings were the cause.

The torn meniscus in the right knee of Andrew Bynum is the big issue right now for the Lakers. He did play a series high 25 minutes in Game 4 but he is no where near 100 percent and the Suns need to take advantage. He is well below his scoring and rebounding averages and his mobility issues are hurting Los Angeles on the defensive side.

Jackson Distraction

Lakers head coach Phil Jackson is gunning for his 13th NBA Title, 10 as a coach, which is remarkable when you think about it. His name has been in the news the last few days but for something other than another championship quest.

Jackson is in the final year of his contract and rumors have started swirling. Last week LeBron James was supposedly house shopping in the Chicago suburbs and this week, the rumor has been Jackson heading back to Chicago to coach the Bulls once again and lead another superstar to numerous NBA Titles.

Those rumors were put to rest by Jackson. “I have not entertained any conversations about that right now,” Jackson said. Even though he declared this prior to the Game Four loss, it was smart of him to get it out there because the last thing the Lakers need is another distraction in a series that has turned the other way.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-27-2010, 06:32 PM

NBA Betting Update

The Phoenix Suns and the Los Angeles Lakers are headed back to the West Coast tied at two games apiece and we couldn’t be happier at Bodog’s online sportsbook.

Granted, our bettors made out rather well after the Suns covered the spread and the total went over in Game 4, but we want this series to go the distance. That’s how popular it is with our players.

It’ll be interesting to see how our players bet in Game 5 after all four games have been won by the home team. Not only have they been won by the home team, they’ve been won handily, by at least nine points. You’d expect heavy action on the Lakers as things shift back to the Staples Center, but might the Suns have figured something out with that zone defense?

"A lot of possessions we just moved the ball around the perimeter," Kobe Bryant said after Game 3. "We didn't force the zone to make any adjustments whatsoever."

The Lakers had trouble penetrating the zone once again in Game 4 and you have to wonder what adjustments Phil Jackson will make for Game 5, because they didn’t work Tuesday.

Home-court advantage will certainly help Los Angeles, which is 7-0 at the Staples Center in these playoffs. The Lakers have only lost three times in the postseason, all three of them on the road. The Suns are 4-3 on the road in the playoffs, 6-1 at home.

As far as futures are concerned, the Lakers went into Game 4 in Phoenix as the 20/27 favorites to win it all. The Boston Celtics, up 3-1 on the Magic in their semi final series, were at 3/1, but we didn’t have much action on them following their sloppy home loss to Orlando in Game 4. Maybe Boston sports fans are still a little wary after the Bruins blew that 3-0 series lead to the Flyers.

I’ll be curious to see if we have much action on the Suns’ odds to win the NBA championship before Game 5. On Tuesday, Phoenix was at 12/1, which is a pretty nice payout, but I get the feeling that bettors would like to see the Suns win in L.A. before they back them, even if it means they get them at significantly lower odds.

At any rate, we expect a huge week of NBA betting at Bodog and whoever the two teams that make the Finals end up being, the series will be a compelling one.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-27-2010, 06:33 PM

Thursday's Early Tilts

There’s more afternoon fun for the gambling faithful on the diamond on Thursday with four businessman specials on the schedule. Two of those contests actually pit decent teams against one another. Let’s look at that pair of battles to make the kick the day off right.

Dodgers (25-20, -119) at Cubs (22-23, -750) – 2:20 p.m. EDT

There has been more than just how women to look at during a game at Wrigley Field (anyone who has watched a WGN broadcast knows what I mean); the Cubbies are starting to win.

Chicago has come up with five wins in its last seven games at the friendly confines. Before we start sliding through the troughs, we have to remember that the Cubs are still just 12-10 at home this season. One hurler that hasn’t enjoyed working at Wrigley this year is Ted Lilly (1-4, 4.30). Lilly has gone 0-2 with a 5.68 earned run average in three starts at home. But he has done well against Los Angeles during his career, evidenced by a 3-1 record and 3.94 ERA in five career starts and six total appearances.

The Dodgers don’t have to feel too bad about losing the series opener to Chicago 3-0 on Tuesday. After all, this is a team that has still won six of their last seven road tests. And LA has learned how to live without Andre Ethier in the lineup by going 7-3 since May 15.

John Ely (3-1, 3.41) is coming into this game for the Dodgers playing his best. He has won his last three starts and the club is on a 4-0 run when he starts to go along with a 2.50 ERA. The only thing gamblers can hold against Ely is that doesn’t have a lot of experience on the road in his young career, evidenced by a 1-1 record and an ERA of 5.25 in two road starts.

Most betting shops have posted Chicago as a $1.25 home favorite (risk $125 to win $100) with no total at the moment.

Chicago has seen the ‘under’ go 5-1-1 in its last seven tests at Wrigley Field. The Dodgers have cashed ‘under’ tickets in six of their past seven games on the road.

Los Angeles has not done all that well against southpaws this season on the road, evidenced by a 2-4 mark. The ‘under’ is 3-1 in the last four fixtures in this spot as well.

The Cubbies are 6-1 in seven home battles against clubs out of the National League West with the ‘over’ going 4-2-1.

Nationals (23-23, +911) at Giants (23-21, -101) – 3:45 p.m. EDT

Do you think the Nationals are starting to get a little antsy about bringing Stephen Strasburg up from AAA Syracuse?

Washington might be ready to pull the trigger on that move after losing three of its last 10 games to fall four games behind the Phils in the NL East. And it doesn’t get better for the Nats on the road as they’ve lost six straight. The starting pitching in those contests has been mediocre at best with a combined ERA of 4.47 in those six tests.

Craig Stammen (1-2, 5.96) will be tasked with helping the Nats to get a leg up on a game outside of the beltway. It isn’t exactly a sure thing that Stamen will come out of strong in this spot. He’s posted an 0-2 record with a 9.92 ERA in four starts on the road.

As far as San Francisco is concerned, they’re just happy with actually scoring more than one run in a game. Before their 4-2 win on Tuesday night, the Giants had crossed the plate no more than one time in five of their last seven contests.

Runs might not be that big of a deal with Barry Zito (6-2, 2.80) taking to the hill. Zito had a bad outing in his last start (6.2 IP, 6 ER). But he’s done good work at home by posting a 4-1 record and a 2.91 ERA in his five appearances at AT&T Park.

San Francisco has been listed as a $1.75 home “chalk” with a total of eight.

The Giants have won three of their four home tests as home faves against the NL East with the ‘over’ going 3-1 this year. Over the last two seasons, Los Gigantes are 16-5 in this same spot.

Washington is just 4-3 as a road pup against lefties in 2010. And the Nats have dropped four of its last five in this situation.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-27-2010, 06:34 PM

Thursday Night Tips

The Thursday night baseball card involves seven contests, including three divisional showdowns in the National League. We'll highlight two of those NL games, including the Braves and Marlins wrapping up a three-game set in South Florida. In the American League, the Rays take on the Sox once again, but this time it's the team from the South Side of Chicago and not Beantown.

White Sox at Rays - 7:10 PM EST

Tampa Bay must be thrilled that Boston is out of town after the Red Sox captured the mid-week series at the Trop. The Rays welcome in the White Sox, as Tampa Bay took two of three at U.S. Cellular Field last month. Jeff Niemann looks to stay undefeated, while Gavin Floyd tries to capitalize on a win in his last start.

Niemann (4-0, 2.54 ERA) continues to be a monster on the mound for Tampa Bay, turning in eight straight quality starts. The 6' 9'' righty has pitched into the seventh inning in seven of his last eight trips to the mound, eliminating a lot of effort from the Rays' bullpen. The two losses the Rays have received with Niemann on the mound came as huge favorites against the Royals ($2.60) and Orioles ($1.60), but the ex-Rice Owl didn't figure in those decisions. Niemann faced the Sox twice last season, delivering quality starts each time even though the Rays split those games.

Floyd's numbers (2-4, 6.31 ERA) have gotten progressively worse since a 17-8 campaign in Chicago's last trip to the playoffs in 2008. The righty has struggled to find his rhythm this season, especially on the road. The Sox are 1-3 in Floyd's four away starts, allowing 16 earned runs in the three defeats at Cleveland, Toronto, and Kansas City. Floyd is coming off his best start of the season, striking out seven in 6.1 innings of a 4-1 victory over the Marlins.

The White Sox have not been a good play recently off a victory, coming off Wednesday's afternoon win at Cleveland. Chicago is 1-11 the last 12 games off a win, including an 0-8 mark off a road victory. The Rays are just 5-5 the previous ten games at home, while bettors are down 4.6 units in this span.

Braves at Marlins - 7:10 PM EST

These NL East rivals send out a pair of solid right-handers to the mound for the finish of a three-game set at Sun Life Stadium. Tim Hudson has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball recently by winning three straight decisions in convincing fashion.

Hudson (5-1, 2.09 ERA) has allowed just two earned runs in his last three outings, as the Braves have outscored the opposition, 31-4 in this span. The former Oakland A's righty is one of the top ground-ball pitchers in the game, and while his K/BB numbers aren't great (26/23), his opponents aren't doing much to get on the bases. In Atlanta's four losses with Hudson starting, the Braves have lost three games by one run apiece, including two games being decided on walk-off hits.

Ricky Nolasco (4-3, 4.50 ERA) has had a bizarre season, by thriving on the road and not so much at home. Granted, Nolasco turned in his worst road outing of the season in an 8-0 blowout to the White Sox, allowing ten hits and eight earned runs in five innings. Nolasco's away numbers (3-1, 3.50 ERA) have blown away his numbers at Sun Life Stadium (1-2, 6.14 ERA), as the righty picked up his lone home win his last time out against the Mets. In four outings against Atlanta last season, the Marlins grabbed three wins when Nolasco took the mound, including a 16 strikeout performance at Turner Field in late September.

Phillies at Mets - 7:10 PM EST

Just one week ago, it seemed that Jerry Manuel's job was in jeopardy. The Mets turned things around by taking two of three over the weekend against the Yankees, followed by a blowout victory of the Phillies. Philadelphia tries to close out this series with a bang by sending out Cole Hamels to the mound.

The Phillies' offense has hit the skids by scoring three runs in the last three games. Hamels (5-2, 3.92 ERA) started the season slow with only one quality outing in his first four starts. The southpaw has turned things around as Philadelphia has won each of his last five outings. After 'overs' in four of his five starts, Hamels has compiled four consecutive 'unders.' Prior to a home win last September over the Mets, Hamels allowed four earned runs in each of his last four starts against New York dating back to 2007.

Mike Pelfrey (6-1, 2.86 ERA) beat the Yankees his last time out, holding the defending champs to six hits and one earned run in six innings of work. The righty's worst start of the season came against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park earlier this month, on the wrong end of a 10-0 drubbing. The Phils tagged Pelfrey for six runs and eight hits in just four innings, the only start all season he has lasted less than five innings. The Mets are 5-1 in Pelfrey's six home starts, but four of those wins have come against teams in the bottom half in the runs scored department in the NL.

After starting the season on a nice 'over' run, the Phillies are 13-5-1 to the 'under' in their last 19 games. The Mets are profiting nicely as an underdog, winning five of their previous seven at plus-money.

Royals at Red Sox - 7:10 PM EST

Boston returns home after a series victory at Tampa Bay to improve to 15-7 the last 22 games. The Sox still have a ways to go to catch the Rays in the AL East race, but Terry Francona's team can make up some ground this weekend with the Royals visiting Fenway Park. A pair of pitchers coming off fantastic starts their last time out will square off in the series opener.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-1, 5.76 ERA) allowed just one hit in eight innings of work as the Boston righty completely baffled the struggled Phillies' offense. The problem with Dice-K this season is his inconsistent ways, shutting down two strong lineups in Toronto and Philadelphia, but getting torched by the Orioles, Angels, and Yankees. Obviously, it's tough to slow down the New York lineup, especially when the Yanks touched up Dice-K for five first-inning runs. When Matsuzaka is on a roll, he allowed four hits and one run in 15 innings against the Jays and Phillies.

The Royals send out Brian Bannister (3-3, 4.72 ERA), who silenced the Colorado bats in a 9-2 thrashing of the Rockies last Friday. Bannister has also struggled to be consistent, but is turning the corner with back-to-back solid performances (13 IP, 5 ER). The right-hander cashed in one of the bigger underdog spots this season by winning at Tampa Bay as a $2.40 'dog. Bannister has never beaten the Red Sox in four starts, but did fall short in a 1-0 setback last July, scattering three hits in 7.2 innings.

Kansas City has won five straight series openers, while going 5-1 the last six games as an underdog of $1.10 or higher. Boston has money as a home favorite recently by winning five of their previous six as 'chalk' in Beantown.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-27-2010, 06:35 PM

Diamond Trends - Thursday

Astros at Brewers – The Astros are 0-7 since April 19, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-7 since May 11, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $760 when playing against.

Dodgers at Cubs – The Cubs are 0-4 since September 18, 2009 when Ted Lilly starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $555 when playing against.

Nationals at Giants – The Nationals are 4-0 since June 18, 2009 as a road 140+ dog after a win and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $820. The Nationals are 0-5 since May 26, 2009 when Craig Stammen starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $505 when playing against. The Giants are 7-0 since July 06, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after allowing 6+ runs loss for a net profit of $700. The Giants are 7-0 since April 22, 2009 when Barry Zito starts at home after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $820.

Braves at Marlins – The Marlins are 9-0 since May 20, 2009 as a home favorite after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $900. The Marlins are 4-0 since June 18, 2009 when Ricky Nolasco starts vs a team that won their starters last three starts for a net profit of $560

Phillies at Mets – The Phillies are 0-7 since May 07, 2009 on the road after being shutout for a net profit of $810 when playing against. The Phillies are 0-7 since June 26, 2009 when Cole Hamels starts as a road favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.

Athletics at Orioles – The Athletics are 0-8 since August 28, 2009 on the road when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $810 when playing against. The Athletics are 6-0 since August 05, 2009 within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $635. The Orioles are 0-7 since August 17, 2009 at home after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Orioles are 6-0 since May 07, 2009 when Bradley Bergesen starts at home after losing as an away dog in his last start for a net profit of $650

White Sox at Rays – The White Sox are 0-7 since April 15, 2009 on the road after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $730 when playing against. The White Sox are 0-6 since July 04, 2009 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $615 when playing against. The White Sox are 0-6 since August 10, 2009 when Gavin Floyd starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $685 when playing against.

Royals at Red Sox - The Royals are 0-7 since July 26, 2009 after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $715 when playing against. The Red Sox are 8-0 since April 22, 2009 at home when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start for a net profit of $800. The Red Sox are 5-0 since June 13, 2009 when Daisuke Matsuzaka starts after the team won their last two games for a net profit of $500

Pirates at Reds – The Pirates are 6-0 since September 25, 2009 as a 170+ dog when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $1120. The Pirates are 0-5 since April 09, 2010 when Charlie Morton starts after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $500 when playing against. The Reds are 6-0 since September 12, 2009 when Johnny Cueto starts after a quality start for a net profit of $700.

Diamondbacks at Rockies – The Diamondbacks are 0-6 since April 30, 2009 on the road within 20 cents of pick ‘em vs a team that has won at least their last three games for a net profit of $615 when playing against. The Rockies are 0-5 since September 23, 2009 at home when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $710 when playing against.

Yankees at Twins – The Twins are 7-0 since May 21, 2009 when Nick Blackburn starts in May for a net profit of $775. The Yankees are 0-6 since May 09, 2010 and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $780 when playing against.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-27-2010, 06:36 PM

Memorial Day Weekend Betting

With the Memorial Day long weekend coming up, I thought I’d provide a quick baseball betting lines update from the sports book at Bodog’s online sportsbook. The holiday weekend is always a popular one for baseball fans to sit back and take in some games and we typically see an uptick in betting that gives us good momentum heading into the summer.

What games will we be keeping an eye on this weekend?

Starting Friday, the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs play a three-game set at Wrigley, with Saturday’s afternoon affair being broadcast on FOX. These two teams have a great rivalry and I guarantee we’ll be busy taking bets on this series, even though neither team is playing particularly good baseball at the moment.

The Cards got off to a great start to the season but cooled off in May, while the Cubs have pretty much underachieved right from the beginning. When you consider Chicago’s $147-million payroll, it’s no surprise that Cubs backers have been getting hammered supporting them. This should be a winning ball club, but it’s not. The only starting pitcher that’s been a winner for bettors is Carlos Silva. The rest of the staff has either struggled to pitch well or not received the necessary run support. In Ryan Dempster’s case, it’s been both.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum you have a team like San Diego. The Padres spend a fraction of what the Cubs do on players and yet they’ve found a way to win games early in the season. The pitching staff has been largely responsible for San Diego’s success and has also resulted in a large percentage of Padres’ games going under the total.

We like teams like the Padres because they hardly get any betting support. Bettors who pay attention to MLB as a whole might get on board with a low-profile team like San Diego, but fans who only follow their own MLB teams and the glamour clubs like the Yankees and Dodgers usually miss the boat.

Whether or not the good ship San Diego has already sailed is up for debate. The Padres dropped six of their last ten before opening a nine-game home stand on Tuesday against St. Louis. This weekend, they host the Washington Nationals, another frugal club that managed to win a few games early in 2010 before coming back to earth.

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