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**StarDust Bum** · 05-25-2010, 06:37 PM

Home Rules the West

People tend to hear and then add their own personal twist to what they just listened to, which ultimately tends to change or exaggerate the original topic. The Phoenix Suns had gone from a terrible defense team to one that was competent after the All-Star break this season. The more games Phoenix won and their players and coaches talked about improved defense being the difference, the more the media and public bought into it.
After holding Portland and San Antonio to 95.9 points per game in their first two series triumphs, the mantra was viewed as the new and improved Phoenix Suns.

The Los Angeles Lakers being more talented, with better offensive weapons, quickly put Alan Gentry’s team more into proper perspective, averaging 126 points in the first two games against the Suns.

Gentry is an affable coach, quick to give praise to his team and at least publicly, measures his disappointment when he sees a lack of effort or execution.

For Game 3, Gentry knew a couple of areas that needed immediate improvement.

He started with realizing his club was no match to play the Lakers straight-up defensively and that doubling different L.A. players was failing as badly as British Petroleum’s attempt to solve the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Gentry knew his team was still below average defensively, but was capable of making SOME stops, which might be enough to knock off the Lakers if the offense continued to be productive.

The head coach and assistant coaches went to a zone defense, which took Kobe Bryant and his teammates out of the triangle offense. Gentry and his staff hoped Los Angeles might become content to fire away from long range and kept his fingers crossed they wouldn’t bury too many. Though the Lakers made nine three-point baskets, it took them 32 attempts to reach that level, lowering their record to 7-3 ATS as road underdogs.

Offensively, Phoenix got aggressive taking the ball to the basket. Forget the talk the Lakers being Lemuel Gulliver from the book “Gulliver’s Travels”, where he washed ashore after a shipwreck and was captured by the people Lilliput (the Suns were bring characterized as the same size as Lilliputians), being one-twelfth the size of a normal human being.

The Suns went at their “giant” foes with abandon and ended up shooting 42 free throws (37 made) to their counterpart’s smallish total of 20. The 118-109 victory brought Phoenix back into the series and gave them hope for the next contest where they are 37-10 and 29-16-2 ATS.

Two main players on the floor changed the direction of the series. Amare Stoudemire was virtually unstoppable with 42 points and 11 rebounds and Lamar Odom returned to the planet earth, with 10 points on 4-14 shooting and had as many fouls as rebounds (6).

Though it probably won’t show in Game 4, Los Angeles has had ample rest, however another loss in the desert could make the series a far greater challenge, forced to play every other day, where they are 4-12 ATS with one day off.

The money at Bookmaker.com is mostly riding on the Lakers, now a one-point favorite after being a 1.5-point underdog to open, with the total higher yet again at 222 after three straight Over’s.

Kobe and company are 18-7 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more in three consecutive contests and 23-12 OVER having won two of their last three games this season. Phoenix will try and square up the series and is 22-8 ATS after a tilt where both teams scored 105 points or more. The team with shaggy-haired point guard and fractured nose is 41-22 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season.

TNT will against provide this West Finals conflict starting at 9:00 Eastern with coaching adjustments very important. The home team is on 8-1 ATS run between these Pacific Division competitors.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-25-2010, 06:38 PM

Time for MLB Trendy Talk

Baseball like any sport is about how teams matchup. Often, little secrets emerge when two teams face off and they can be frequently found in baseball trends. Those participating in sports betting can grab an edge they might otherwise not have with a couple of key points about any given contest on a typical slate of 15 games. Take the time to peruse baseball’s top trends for tonight.

In the National League the Cincinnati Reds host Pittsburgh being tied with the St. Louis atop the Central Division. The Reds are a -170 money line favorite at Bookmaker.com and have feasted on rotten teams. Cincy is 12-2 playing against a bad club with 38-46 win percentage and is 11-2 if a NL team has an on-base percentage .315 or worse this season.

Philadelphia visits the New York Mets and is 10-2 on the road after seven or more consecutive home games the last three seasons. Tonight, the Phillies starter is Jamie Moyer and he and the Phils are 14-3 in road encounters against division opponents since 2008.

Atlanta heads to south Florida with the total at nine. This might be setting up as Under play since the Braves are 14-3 UNDER in road games when playing with a day off over the last three years and Florida starter Anibal Sanchez is 11-1 UNDER when the ML is +125 to -125.

The Houston at Milwaukee matchup is like picking your own poison. The Brewers are 4-14 at Miller Park and 2-7 as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Astros on the other hand are 15-29 and 7-21 coming of a loss. Houston will start Felipe Paulino who is 0-6 this year and he and the ‘Stros are 2-15 as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.

Over in the American League, two scuffling Central Division partners do battle in Cleveland. The Chicago White Sox are underachieving 19-25 and cannot formulate any momentum with 4-14 record after a win in 2010. The Indians have hitting and pitching woes are 4-17 after scoring four runs or less in five straight games since 2008. The Pale Hose are -132 ML favorites because of starter Jake Peavy.

Oakland has won three in a row and five of seven to climb back over .500 at 23-22 and has owned Baltimore with 13-2 mark. The A’s are -111 ML road faves behind Dallas “Mr. Perfect” Braden; however an inkling of doubt arises. The Athletics are feeble 0-13 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better.

Minnesota like a lot of AL clubs has problems with the New York Yankees. The Twins are 5-18 vs. New York and 4-7 at home the last couple of years. The simplest explanation is 16-32 record vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .345 or better. Minnesota will try to change their luck in new Target Field against the Bronx Bombers, but are 12-30 versus AL squads scoring 5.2 or more runs a game.

The Toronto Blue Jays continue to mash, leading baseball with 76 dingers and are 12-4 in road encounters when playing against a team with a losing record after last night’s impressive 6-0 white-washing of the L.A. Angels. The Halos are presently listed as a Pick with a great deal of line movement. This evening they give the ball to Ervin Santana who is 22-8 throwing at the Big A vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs game. (Team's Record)

**StarDust Bum** · 05-25-2010, 06:38 PM

Another Low Total in San Diego

While most expected the St. Louis Cardinals to be in the thick of another NL Central title race, the San Diego Padres position atop the NL West is far more surprising. The key for both teams’ success has been their solid pitching, and each will send their top pitcher to the hill Tuesday night in the opener of a three-game series at Petco Park.

Adam Wainwright looks to lead the Cardinals to their sixth win in eight games when he squares off against Jon Garland, who is trying to win six straight decisions for the first time in four years.

St. Louis (26-19, -2.9 units), coming off Sunday’s 6-5, 10-inning win over the Los Angeles Angels to wrap up a 5-2 homestand, has won four of the last six Central crowns. With Albert Pujols mired in a slump, the Cardinals have relied on their strong pitching, which ranks second in the league with a 3.07 ERA.

Wainwright (6-2, 2.49, 1.015 WHIP) has been instrumental to that success with the league’s ninth-best ERA. The right-hander allowed two runs and six hits with eight strikeouts in seven innings of Thursday’s 4-2 win over Florida, the third time in four starts he yielded two runs or fewer and is 16-5 in road games over the last two seasons. (Cards Record)

In his only start against San Diego, Wainwright allowed eight hits in seven shutout innings of a 9-2 victory in St. Louis on Aug. 14 and his club is 17-8 UNDER after a win this season.

The Cardinals took six of seven from the Padres last season, as San Diego finished in fourth place in the West. The Padres (26-18, +10.1), though, are no longer looking like pushovers. Led by an NL-best 2.98 ERA, San Diego has a one-game lead over Los Angeles in the division.

After emerging star Mat Latos led the Padres to an 8-1 win over Seattle on Sunday, Garland (5-2, 2.38, 1.377) looks to give them another solid performance.

Garland, seventh in the NL in ERA, struggled in a 10-5 win over the Dodgers on Wednesday. He allowed four runs with season highs of nine hits and 117 pitches over five innings but still moved to 5-0 with a 1.89 ERA in his last six starts and is 12-1 UNDER when working on five or six days rest over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The right-hander hasn’t won six straight decisions since going 8-0 during a 10-start span for the Chicago White Sox in 2006.

Garland, who signed with the Padres in January, is enjoying pitching at his new home, going 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in four starts. He hopes pitching in San Diego will give him better luck against the Cardinals, as he recorded an 8.38 ERA in losing two starts against them last season with Arizona and Garland is 6-16 after his team won since last season. (Team's Record)

Pujols had two homers in five at-bats against Garland in 2009 but hasn’t found much success at the plate lately. The three-time league MVP is 3 for 20 in his last six games and doesn’t have an RBI in his last nine. A .333 career hitter, Pujols is batting .303 and in danger of having his average dip below .300 this late in the season for the first time since June 27, 2007. He finished that year batting .327.

“I don’t think it’s fair to say I’m struggling when a guy’s hitting over .300,” Pujols said. “Obviously, I spoil you guys too much hitting .350 every month and hitting a bunch of home runs with a bunch of RBIs.”

Breaking out of his funk against San Diego might not be so easy. Despite the Cardinals’ dominance over the Padres last season, Pujols hit .231 with a homer, double and three RBIs. He is 4 for 24 (.167) with a solo homer in his last six games at Petco.

Bookmaker.com has tonight’s matchup of division leaders at Un 6.5 with St. Louis a -140 money line favorite. This marks the 18th time in 22 games at Petco Park the total will be seven or less and San Diego is 18-6 UNDER in home games after allowing one run or less. This contest has a 10:05 Eastern start time and the Cardinals are 19-9 UNDER in night games this season.
The Padres may be the underdog; however this type of tilt sets up nicely for them as they are 9-1 vs. NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs a game on the season.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-25-2010, 06:40 PM

Lakers at Suns, Game 4

The Suns found a way to keep one of the conference finals series interesting with their victory on Sunday night. Phoenix will look to even up this series at two games apiece with Los Angeles at US Airways Center on Tuesday night.

From the gambling perspective, the biggest question going into Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals is if these two teams can keep up their high-scoring battles. Phoenix topped L.A., 118-109 in Game 3, finishing 'over' the total of 219 ½. Sunday's game even featured a 40-point quarter, as the Suns outscored the Lakers, 25-15 in the second. The downfall for 'under' players came in a 69-point third quarter, in which the Lakers put up 37 points. The amazing part of this up-and-down contest was Phoenix hitting only five of 20 attempts from downtown, but the Suns made up for it by drilling 37 free throws.

All three games of this series have eclipsed the 'over,' with final totals coming to 235, 226, and 227 points. The posted totals have jumped considerably from the series opener until now, going from 210 ½ to 216 to 219 ½ to 221 ½ for Game 4. The last three home playoff games for the Suns that had a final total of at least 220 points all finished 'under' the total (221 ½, 223 ½, and 224 against the Mavericks in 2005 and 2006 playoffs).

Amare Stoudemire silenced the critics with a 42-point, 11-rebound effort in Game 3 for the Suns, coming off a combined 41 points and nine rebounds in the first two losses of the series. The Lakers shot better from the floor (48% to 46%), from downtown (28% to 25%), and out-rebounded the Suns (41-40) in Game 3. The disparity at the foul line (37-16), while committing ten less turnovers than the Lakers helped the Suns make this a series.

The Lakers were led by Kobe Bryant's 36 points and 11 assists, but the bigger story from Game 3 was the injury to Andrew Bynum. The young center played seven minutes, while putting up just two points. Bynum has been largely ineffective since a solid first-round series against the Thunder with his ailing right knee hindering his game. Even though the rumor was tossed out there that Bynum may sit Game 4 to rest his knee, it is likely he will play on Tuesday.

Los Angeles has turned into an uptempo team in the postseason by putting up 'overs' in nine of the last 11 games. Phil Jackson's club has tallied at least 109 points in six straight games, but has also allowed at least 103 points in each of those contests. The Lakers have been involved in four games this season with a total of 220 or higher, two of which came at home against the Suns in the regular season. One game went 'over' the total, a 121-102 Los Angeles victory in early November. The only 'under' out of the four came versus Phoenix in a 108-88 win on December 6, easily finishing 'under' the total of 221.

The Lakers have barely profited on the road off an away loss this season, going 7-5 SU/ATS. Meanwhile, the Suns are 10-5 SU and 8-6-1 ATS at home following a victory in the Valley. That situation for Alvin Gentry's team has come up only once this postseason in the Game 2 victory over San Antonio last round. Following the Game 3 win, the home team has improved to 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings in this series.

The Suns are listed between a pick-em and one-point favorites depending on your book. The total is set at 221 ½ across the board, while the game tips off at 9:00 PM EST and will be televised nationally on TNT.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

-- Commissioner David Stern will get his wish eventually with a Boston-Los Angeles NBA Finals, but he can't be thrilled with the way the playoffs have gone so far. The biggest story in the league is where LeBron James will end up next season, as the games are riding in the backseat of the car. Understandably, this summer's free agent market is the most significant we've seen in years, but that would on the back-burner if these series were more exciting.

-- The Wizards winning the draft lottery just goes to show you how things can go full-circle. Washington had the abundance of problems throughout the season, including the Gilbert Arenas gun incident. The Wizards dealt Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison, and went through the final months of the season as a team that seemed a step above an NBDL squad. The likelihood of drafting Kentucky's John Wall with the first pick won't rescue the franchise, but it will try to turn the corner for professional basketball in the Nation's Capital.

-- The firing of Mike Brown in Cleveland was as obvious as Jesse James cheating on Sandra Bullock. Brown owned a fantastic regular season mark in his tenure with the Cavs, but this team made only one Finals appearance in five seasons. Cleveland must feel that it will lure a big-name coach with this move (to along with the $4.5 million it saved by firing Brown at Sunday's deadline), or at least make one last stand to keep James in northern Ohio.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-25-2010, 06:41 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

Blue Jays at Angels – The Blue Jays are 6-0 since April 08, 2010 on the road after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $690. The Blue Jays are 0-6 since August 12, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Astros at Brewers – The Astros are 0-7 since April 10, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Astros are 0-7 since April 28, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $715 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-8 since May 22, 2009 after a one run win and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Dodgers at Cubs – The Dodgers are 0-5 since July 24, 2009 when Clayton Kershaw starts vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $835 when playing against. The League is 6-0 since May 17, 2010 at home when they are off two one-run wins for a net profit of $600.

Nationals at Giants – The Nationals are 0-7 since May 22, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $720 when playing against. The Giants are 7-0 since June 12, 2009 at home after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $740.

White Sox at Indians – The White Sox are 0-6 since April 15, 2009 on the road after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $615 when playing against. The Indians are 5-0 since April 07, 2010 after a 5+ run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700. The Indians are 4-0 since April 16, 2010 when Mitch Talbot starts as a dog for a net profit of $590

Tigers at Mariners – The Tigers are 7-0 since May 03, 2009 when Justin Verlander starts as a favorite in May for a net profit of $700. The Mariners are 0-7 since April 12, 2010 at home after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $780 when playing against.

Braves at Marlins – The Braves are 0-5 since April 11, 2010 when Kenshin Kawakami starts on the road vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $520 when playing against. The Marlins are 5-0 since September 12, 2009 when Anibal Sanchez starts as a favorite after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $500

Phillies at Mets – The League is 0-11 since April 09, 2010 as a home dog when they are off two wins in which they never trailed for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

Athletics at Orioles – The Athletics are 7-0 since August 05, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $735. The Athletics are 5-0 since May 17, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $510The Orioles are 5-0 since April 26, 2009 when they are off two one-run losses for a net profit of $740. .

Cardinals at Padres – The Cardinals are 8-0 since April 10, 2009 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800. The Cardinals are 7-0 since August 09, 2009 as a road favorite after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $700.

Red Sox at Rays – The Rays are 6-0 since April 17, 2009 when James Shields starts as a home favorite after a quality start on the road for a net profit of $600

Pirates at Reds – The Reds are 5-0 since April 11, 2010 when Mike Leake starts at home for a net profit of $555.

Diamondbacks at Rockies – The Diamondbacks are 5-0 since May 15, 2010 after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $610. The Rockies are 0-6 since April 10, 2010 after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $840 when playing against.

Rangers at Royals – The Rangers are 0-4 since August 18, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $635 when playing against. The Royals are 0-8 since June 19, 2009 at home when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Yankees at Twins – The League is 8-0 since April 08, 2010 as a home dog after a loss in which they had more than ten team-left-on-base for a net profit of $965. The Twins are 0-8 since April 22, 2009 when Scott Baker starts as a dog in the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-25-2010, 06:42 PM

Tuesday Double Play

Bettors that were looking for some variety on the diamond didn’t find it on Monday night. Luckily for them, 11 of those series will be getting underway on Tuesday night. That gives us plenty of action to sweat out. Let’s look at a game that pits some division leaders against one another, while the other showdown has two clubs look to keep pace with the Phillies.

Braves (23-21, -161) at Marlins (23-22, -125) – 7:10 p.m. EDT

Atlanta might have earned some wins with some good ol’ fashioned luck last week, but they’ve played quite well. The Braves have won 10 of their last 13 games. That surge was good enough to push them 3 ½-games behind Philadelphia for first place in the National League East.

The Braves are going through a tough stretch where they will be playing on the road for 17 of their next 23 contests. That can’t bode all that well for them since they are 10-15 away from Turner Field right now. Of course, they are coming into this game having taken two of three at PNC Park against the Pirates to improve its road mark to 6-2 in its last eight.

Kenshin Kawakami (0-6, 4.98) will get the start on Tuesday night for Bobby Cox’s crew. While his stats for the season stink, it would appear that Kawakami is indeed turning the corner. The Japanese hurler has tossed 9.1 innings in his last two starts, striking out 12 batters and walking just three. But more importantly, the Braves won both of those outings.

Florida’s coming home after an utterly forgettable 2-3 road trip. The Marlins did finish up with a 13-0 pimpslapping of the White Sox last Sunday. If you take that outcome out of its last five matches, Florida had given up at least four runs in three of those other four tilts.

The Marlins will turn to Anibal Sanchez (3-2, 3.28) to help themselves string wins together. Not a bad guy to have toeing the slab right now if you’re the Fish. Sanchez has lasted seven innings in his past two starts, giving up two earned runs on eight hits as Florida won both appearances.

Most betting outlets have listed the Fish as $1.25 home favorites (risk $125 to win $100) with a total of 8 ½.

Florida is just 12-10 for the season at Sun Life Stadium with the ‘over’ going 13-7-2. In the Marlins past six home tests, they are 5-1.

Another thing to keep in mind for the Marlins is that they are 5-1 as home favorites against NL East foes.

Atlanta hasn’t played great on the road against clubs from the NL East, evidenced by a 2-7 mark during the 2010 campaign. The ‘under’ is 7-1-1 in those games as well.

Cardinals (26-19, -268) at Padres (26-18, +993) – 10:05 p.m. EDT

The Cardinals are back in the driver’s seat for the NL Central after winning on Sunday against Los Angeles and the Reds falling to Cleveland on the same day. St. Louis has certainly responded after losing its mid-May series in Cincy by going 5-2 in its last seven contests.

St. Louis will entrust Adam Wainwright (6-2, 2.49) to keep a hold on first place for them. He tossed seven strong innings of six-hit ball while giving up two earned runs in a 4-2 win over the Marlins on May 20. Wainwright hasn’t pitched terrible on the road recently, tossing at least six innings and giving up no more than four earned runs in his last four games outside of Busch Stadium. The Cardinals’ offense hasn’t shown up for him in those road contests as they scored just four or fewer runs as they’re 1-3 in Wainwright’s last four road starts.

The Padres are back on track with two straight wins to keep a one-game cushion over San Francisco in the NL West. It also doesn’t hurt that San Diego is still getting great starting pitching (6.0 innings per start, 3.03 ERA) to keep this run going.

San Diego has Jon Garland (5-2, 2.38) set to start this series for them. Garland has been a solid producer in his first season with the Pads. And they’ve helped pay gamblers off handsomely when their newest pitcher gets on the mound, having won six of his last seven starts.

As good as Garland has fared this season, he’s not done well against the Cards during his career. In three career starts against St. Louis, he has gone 0-3 with a 7.36 earned run average. He’s only done worse against the Phils and Braves during his 12 years in the big leagues.

Perhaps the past failures of Garland is why the oddsmakers have made St. Louis a $1.25 road favorite with a total of 6 ½.

San Diego has gone just 6-5 when posted as a road underdog this season, losing two of its last three in this spot. The ‘under’ is 4-2 in the past six matches under these criteria.

The Cardinals are 10-8 as road faves in 2010 with the ‘under’ going 12-6. Tighten those numbers up to games against the NL West and St. Louis is 3-1 with the ‘under’ showing a similar mark.

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