Announcement

**BettorsChat** · 05-22-2010, 11:13 AM

gl Stardust

**StarDust Bum** · 05-22-2010, 06:08 PM

Game 3, Magic at Celtics

Can the Magic overcome a 0-2 deficit to the Celtics?

From a history perspective, it’s not on Orlando’s side. Only 14 teams have ever come back to win a best-of-seven playoff battle after losing the first two games. And, only three times in postseason play has a club battled back after losing the first two home games in a best-of-seven series. The most recent team to pull off that feat was Dallas, who defeated Houston in the first round of the 2005 playoffs.

Since no team in NBA history has ever come back from a 0-3 deficit, Game 3 on Saturday becomes even bigger for Orlando, or what most would define as a must-win spot.

After ripping off eight straight playoff victories (7-1 against the spread) over the Bobcats and Hawks in the first two rounds, Stan Van Gundy’s team has finally been punched in the mouth and the counter-punches came too little and too late, especially in Game 2 on Tuesday.

Boston led 53-51 at the break and 78-70 after three quarters before the fun began. The eight-point gap was quickly trimmed in the final stanza and Orlando actually took the lead (90-89) on a Vince Carter jumper with less than four minutes on the clock. However, that’s as close as the Magic got and Boston’s head coach Doc Rivers summed it us best. “It was a great game intensity-wise, a game of runs. They brought the fight to us in a lot of ways, and I thought we withstood the hits.”

Along with taking Orlando’s best shots, Boston got two key jumpers from Kevin Garnettt and Rajon Rondo to take the lead. The Magic trailed 95-92 with a half-minute left and Carter missed two crucial free throws that could’ve cut the lead to one. Boston ran the clock down and missed its last shot but Orlando’s late heave to force overtime came up short. No matter the team and talent on the court, most would agree that it’s hard to win any game if you only score two points in the final four minutes.

A lot of factors can be attributed to the losses in the Magic Kingdom, but the biggest issue for Orlando in this series has been its shooting, which connected on 41 percent in Game 1 and even worse, 39 percent, in Game 2. The team has made a total of 12 shots from 3-point land in the first two losses, after hitting 89 bombs in the first eight wins.

VegasInsider.com hoops expert Brian Edwards believes you can point to the finger to one specific player on the outside. He said, “Let’s put out an APB for Rashard Lewis, who is 4-for-16 from the field in this series and hasn’t scored in double figures yet. Lewis has got to get going in Boston, sooner than later.”

Lewis isn’t a newbie to the playoffs, experiencing Orlando’s deep run last year. And he put up double-figures in seven of the first eight postseason games this year. Another solid role player, Matt Barnes, has also come up short for the Magic in this series although he’s had back issues. Barnes has put up eight total points in the two losses and he’s been missing at the end of the games on the defensive end, which could be due to the back spasms.

Despite the shooting woes, Edwards doesn’t believe that Orlando has packed it in yet. “I don’t think this series is over. Orlando is very capable of winning on the road, as evidenced by its 29-16 straight up record. The Magic just have to make life more difficult for Rajon Rondo and as we know, that’s no easy task. His numbers don’t even reflect the type of dominant impact he’s having, and you can’t underestimate how much easier he makes life for the veterans – Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. Those guys get to conserve so much energy with Rondo doing all the work off the dribble.”

“But this is the playoffs, Rondo needs to get put on the deck when he comes into the lane hard. Look for a ‘purpose foul’ on Rondo early in Game 3 and if we don’t see one, that’s on Stan Van Gundy.”

Orlando did get a boost from Dwight Howawrd (30 points) in Game 2 but Jameer Nelson (9 points) had trouble offensively and defensively against Rondo (25 point, eight assists). Orlando’s bench outperformed Boston 26-18 behind 16 points from J.J. Redick. While that effort is great and appreciated, does Van Gundy really want the former Duke standout to be taking nine shots in a game, which was more than Lewis?

Most books opened Boston as a 2 ½-point favorite for Saturday and the number has since moved to 3 ½ at most shops, and has even spiked to 4 at a couple Las Vegas shops. Betting on the underdog in this head-to-head matchup has been a solid investment. The pup has covered seven straight encounters and has won outright six times over that span. Instead of taking the 3-4 points, the smart yet riskier play would be the Magic on the money-line (+150).

Along with the ‘dog streak, the ‘under’ has been just as golden when this pair collides. The ‘under’ has gone 9-1 in the last 10, including the first two in this series. Total players following Game 2 understand that the ‘over’ was the right side. Unfortunately, a 39-point fourth quarter and a couple missed free throws stifled players who took ‘over’ 188 ½. The number has been pushed up to 190 for Game 3.

Boston has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 in its six home playoff games and only Game 3 (124-95) in the conference semifinals against Cleveland was a legitimate shootout. The Magic have watched the total go 2-2 in their four road playoffs games, despite their offense averaging 98 PPG against the Bobcats and Hawks.

Gamblers looking at an overpowering trend can look no further than Marc Lawrence. According to the VegasInsider.com veteran handicapper, teams in the playoffs off back-to-back SU home favorite losses are 2-7 SU and ATS when facing a same conference, non-division foe since 1990, including 0-5 SU and ATS as dog of less than six points.

Even though those numbers don’t lean toward Orlando, the Magic does own a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS mark on three days of rest or more. However, the one loss was against Boston in Game 1 of this year’s conference semifinals.

ESPN will provide coverage of Game 3 at 8:30 p.m. EDT.

Game 4 will take place on Monday from TD Garden at the same time.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-22-2010, 06:09 PM

Saturday FOX Tips

The Saturday FOX slate in baseball takes place under the lights with four games getting regional coverage. Two of the East Coast tilts take place inside NL East ballparks, while the other two contests involve a pair of American League clubs playing extremely well. The Subway Series will bat lead-off in tonight's preview with a fantastic pitching matchup between two solid right-handed pitchers.

Yankees at Mets - 7:10 PM EST

These two rivals sent out hurlers from the back-end of their rotation on Friday, but will see instant improvement on Saturday when Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey take the mound. Both these pitchers have won five games each, as each righty is finally come into their own.

Hughes (5-0, 2.25 ERA) has been nearly automatic when he takes the mound, but is coming off his worst start of the season. The Red Sox tagged Hughes for five earned runs in five innings, but the Yankees rallied for an 11-9 victory as the righty picked up a no-decision. Three of Hughes' four road starts have been quality ones, including wins at Detroit and Boston. The run support is outstanding for Hughes, as the Yankees have scored at least eight runs in each of his last four outings.

Pelfrey (5-1, 3.02 ERA) began the season on fire by allowing just two earned runs in his first four starts (Mets 4-0). The tables have turned recently as the Mets' righty gave up 15 earned runs in his last four outings, while the New York is 2-2 in that span. Pelfrey's numbers at home are strong, owning a 2.61 ERA in five starts, with the Mets winning four times. This will be the third start against the Yankees for Pelfrey, coming off a 9-1 home loss last June, as the righty lasted just five innings.

The Yankees have now won six of the last seven meetings, following last night's 2-1 triumph. The road team is 10-3 the previous 13 matchups, as the Mets are 1-6 the last seven home games against the Bombers.

Red Sox at Phillies - 7:10 PM EST

Philadelphia owned the worst interleague record among NL teams last season, but the Phillies try to turn their luck around against Daisuke Matzusaka and the Red Sox. After Cole Hamels took the mound in the series opener, the Phillies send out Kyle Kendrick tonight.

Matzusaka (2-1, 7.89 ERA) was knocked around in his last outing against the Yankees, allowing five runs in the first inning of an 11-9 loss. Luckily, the Sox came back to take a late lead to get Dice-K off the hook, but Boston ultimately lost on a Marcus Thames walk-off homer. Matzusaka has not pitched well on the road in two away starts, giving up 13 earned runs in 9.1 innings of defeats to the Yankees and Orioles. Dice-K lasted four innings against the Phillies, pitching through an hour and a half rain delay, as the Sox picked up an 11-6 victory.

Kendrick (2-1, 5.24 ERA) struggled to start the season, but the Phillies have won each of his last three outings. The righty pitched well against the Pirates and Cardinals at home, allowing two earned runs in 15 innings. Kendrick lost his only career start versus the Red Sox back in 2008, yielding six hits and six earned runs in three innings of a 7-4 home setback.

Boston finished last season at 6-3 on the road in interleague play, including a pair of victories at Citizens Bank Park. On the flip side, the Phillies improved to 2-8 the previous ten games against the American League, after Friday's win over the Red Sox.

Tigers at Dodgers - 7:10 PM EST

One of the better matchups this weekend takes place at Chavez Ravine, as the Tigers and Dodgers continue their series. Los Angeles has been on fire by winning ten of 11, while going 'under' the total in eight of the last 12. Detroit has not been able to put up a substantial winning streak, as the Tigers have not won more than two straight games over the last three weeks.

The Tigers send out Armando Galarraga (1-0, 1.59 ERA), as the righty is trying to reclaim the magic of the 2008 season in which he finished 13-7. Galarraga won his season debut over the Red Sox, limiting Boston to three hits and one earned run in 5.2 innings of a 5-1 victory. Detroit went 4-8 in Galarraga's 12 starts on the highway last season, while going 1-5 when he is listed as a road underdog.

John Ely (2-1, 3.51 ERA) has become a nice addition to the back end of the Dodgers' rotation, turning in three straight quality starts. Los Angeles has won each of his previous three outings, while all four of his starts have finished 'over' the total. Ely forces batters to earn their way on base by going three consecutive starts without walking a batter.

Following a nice run in interleague play on the road, the Tigers won just three of nine games on the highway last season against NL opponents. The Dodgers weren't much better with a 4-5 home mark in interleague, including dropping a series to the Mariners.

Cubs at Rangers - 7:10 PM EST

Texas looks to keep swinging hot bats, as the Rangers host the Cubs in Arlington. Ron Washington's club has won five straight, while claiming four of those games by one run. The Cubs are playing better after a bit of a funk by grabbing victories in four of their last six.

Randy Wells (3-2, 4.12 ERA) has bounced back from two bad starts by putting together quality outings in each of his last two trips to the mound. The Cubs' righty did not figure in the decision of a 4-2 extra-innings victory over the Rockies last Tuesday, but Wells did turn in 6.2 innings of seven-hit baseball. Wells compiled three quality starts on the road to start the season, but was rocked in his last outing on the highway, allowing seven runs in just two innings of an 11-1 thumping at Pittsburgh.

The Rangers counter with lefty Derek Holland (2-0, 2.38 ERA), who has turned in two home victories in his first two starts since returning from a stint in the minors. Holland had his moments last season, but needed to sure some things up at Triple-A Oklahoma City. The southpaw responded with a 4-1 mark and ERA of 0.93 at the Triple-A level, then was promoted after Matt Harrison hit the DL with biceps tendonitis. Holland was dominant over Oakland in his season debut by hurling six scoreless innings, followed by a win over the Angels.

The Cubs are 1-11 the last 12 interleague road games, while the Rangers finished 3-6 against NL opponents at home in 2009.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-22-2010, 06:10 PM

Celtics defying the odds

Common on, be honest, you had the Boston Celtics playing in the NBA Finals right along with the thought of changing the oil in your car. The truth is you didn’t really believe either was going to happen, but it sounds good right now, having learned what veteran pride and know how can do.

While much of corporate America looks to slice payroll, force more early retirements and generally speaking hire a cheaper labor force without necessarily having a better replacements, the Boston basketball franchise embraces the elderly.

No question it is a fine line to walk, as for months Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen were having a difficult time keeping up with their hefty reputations, let alone playing a higher caliber of basketball. Boston limped into the playoffs with 3-7 SU and ATS record to close the season and most basketball fans and sports bettors thought the only way the light goes on for the Celtics was the “Clapper”.

For all that had gone wrong with Boston (27-26, 20-31-2 ATS since Dec. 27 until the end of the regular season), once the playoffs began, youth was served.

Rajon Rondo strapped the (aging) veteran stars on his back went took off. Rondo destroyed Miami and as that series wore on, one by one the “Big Three” from the Celtics joined him as a cohesive unit. Much like a younger person showing an older adult how to use their cell phone and various apps, Rondo got Boston rolling and they are 10-3 SU and ATS in the postseason, including punching winners on the last five contests.

After the C’s unceremoniously chopped up Cleveland, Orlando was supposed to finish of this Celtics revival. The Magic were younger, quicker and reportedly hungrier, playing the best basketball of any team for 2 ½ months.

Then something weird happened, something that would make legendary Red Auerbach smile. Boston went to Central Florida and ripped Orlando apart. Word was the Rondo and Jameer Nelson matchup was supposed to be special; instead it’s been the like Buffalo Bills in a Super Bowl.

The way the other Magic guards and forwards (except for J.J. Redick and Vince Carter in non-pressure situations) have wilted against Boston, you would have thought the games were being played outdoors on Church Street.

For roughly 35 minutes of each of the first two games, the way Orlando was scrambling on defense, you would swear it was 6 on 5, with Boston always finding the open man. The Magic might be 26-14 ATS having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season, but they look like a befuddled bunch.

Bookmaker.com has Boston as 3.5-point favorite, with total of 190 and they are 25-14 ATS after a win by six points or less. The Celtics have controlled the tempo series after series and is 13-3 UNDER against teams with winning records. Orlando still has a heartbeat, but is 15-31 ATS off two or more consecutive home losses and 9-1 UNDER after a close loss by three points or less.

ESPN will have Game 3 at 8:30 Eastern, with the favorite 1-6 and 0-7 ATS since May 17 of last year.

Announcement

The Bum's Saturday's Best Bets MLB-NBA-NHL-WNBA !

The Bum's Saturday's Best Bets MLB-NBA-NHL-WNBA !

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment