Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 05-17-2010, 01:29 PM

Swing Week starts in the Big Leagues

This is the only week of the Major League baseball season that players truly hate. It’s referred to as “swing week” because every team will play 2 two-game series this week before the weekend. The purpose is to balance out the schedule since the two leagues have differing amount of teams, which forces uncommon numbers to make 162-game slate work out. This used to be done later in the year, but the clubs worked with the schedule-maker to get it out of the way sooner in the year.

In the National League, a couple of teams from the Keystone State will meet for a pair. Philadelphia (23-13, +5.1 units) returns home off a 4-1 road trip which included sweeping the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Phillies are 11-3 this month and four games clear in the NL East of competitors. The always potent Philly batting order is now the best in the National League at 5.6 runs per game, but improved all around pitching has lit this candle for them.

Pittsburgh at 16-21 (+4.9) isn’t terrible (at least not yet), nor are they particularly good. The Pirates problem is offense, ranked next to last in scoring at 3.5 runs per contest and 14th in home runs with 29 in the senior circuit.

Philadelphia is a -220 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com having to face Charlie Morton (1-6, 9.19 ERA). Even with a couple of surprising wins at Wrigley Field the past three days, Pittsburgh is still 29-70 as a road underdog of +100 or higher.

As we head down the hill for May, having Atlanta and the New York Mets holding down the last two spots in the NL East is as surprising the Flyers and Canadiens in the East Finals in the NHL. The Mets (18-20, -3.6) fall is particularly appalling since they were in first place in the division not that long ago, however a 4-12 road record will do that to a team.

The Braves (18-19, -3.8) haven’t been very good on the road either, which is why they have to take advantage of this situation at Turner Field. Atlanta caught Milwaukee at the right time and swept them, took series over pitching-poor Arizona and host Mets who have lost five in a row. Thanks to Tim Hudson yesterday, the Braves are 17-4 with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less in last game and they are -144 ML home favorites tonight.

In the American League, Toronto (23-16, +10.5) prepares to face first place Minnesota. A great deal of verbile could be used to describe the Blue Jays in 2010. Toronto has won 11 of 14 after sweeping another club atop their division in Texas. The Jays lead the AL in home runs with 60, slugging percentage (.459) and total bases (612). They will face Kevin Slowey (4-3, 4.62 ERA) of the Twins and Toronto is 20-11 against right-hand pitchers, averaging 5.8 runs per contest.

The Twins (23-14, +4.5) finally ended their 12-game road losing streak against the Yankees in dramatic fashion with Jason Kubel’s grand slam home run off Mariano Rivera on Sunday. However, the Blue Jays are also tough on Minnesota with 11-3 mark the last couple of years. The Twinkies are -115 ML choice and are 12-2 when favored by -150 or less this season.

If the Rangers (20-18, -0.6) are feeling a little uneasy being in first place in the AL West it’s understandable. After being swept north of the border, they return to Rangers Ballpark and hear the unmistakable rumble of the Angels chasing them. With Texas having lost last three, Los Angeles (18-21, -4.2) won a trio at home over Oakland, bringing them back to within 2.5 games in the division.

Texas is back home where they are 13-7 this season. The Rangers mission for this two-game set is to get into L.A.’s redoubtable bullpen that carries 6.38 ERA (2.118 WHIP) away from home. The Rangers are 24-8 vs. a poor pen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse. The Angels finally got great pitching over the weekend in permitting three total runs to the A’s and had two shutouts.

“We’re only going to go as far as our starters are going to perform,” manager Mike Scioscia said. “If this weekend is any indication, hopefully we’re starting to make some strides forward.”

Inconsistent Scott Kazmir (2-3, 6.82) is the Halos starter and his club is a +140 ML underdog, yet is 14-3 after consecutive wins by four runs or more.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-17-2010, 01:30 PM

Red Sox at Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are coming off one of their most baffling losses in years, but they don’t have time to dwell on it with a series against their archrivals looming. The Yankees look to bounce back when they open a two-game series against the Boston Red Sox in their first meeting of the season in the Bronx on Monday night.

Leading Minnesota 3-1 in the eighth inning Sunday, New York (24-13, +6.4 units) was on the verge of sweeping a three-game series until closer Mariano Rivera surrendered a bases loaded walk and grand slam. It was the first grand slam off Rivera in eight years. The Yankees fell 6-3, losing for the third time in 15 home games and they are 43-18 after being defeated.

“You take the positives,” first baseman Mark Teixeira told the Yankees’ official website. “We won two out of three, let this one slip away, but we’ve got another big one coming up.” New York is 26-5 at home after two or more consecutive Under’s.

New York opened this season by taking two of three in Boston and also won two of three at Fenway Park last weekend, scoring 24 runs in the victories. Teixeira has driven in eight runs against the Red Sox and Nick Swisher has knocked in nine. Swisher didn’t play Sunday because of a sore left biceps, but he’s hoping to return Monday.

Phil Hughes (5-0, 1.38 ERA, 0.923 WHIP) looks to set the tone for this series when he takes the ball for the Yankees. Hughes, the team’s No. 5 starter, leads the AL in ERA and opponents’ batting average (.165), and has 39 strikeouts in 39 innings. He has a 0.86 ERA in winning his last three starts.

The right-hander allowed two runs and seven hits with seven strikeouts in seven innings of a 10-3 win over the Red Sox (19-19, -6.8) on May 7. Five days later in Detroit, he gave up five hits in seven innings of an 8-0 win. “He’s made some huge strides for us,” manager Joe Girardi said. “We expected him to be a good starting pitcher coming out of spring training, but I think he has exceeded even what we were hoping we’d get.”

While Hughes has looked sharp in all six of his starts, Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 6.35, 1.235) will take the mound following his first impressive outing of the year. Matsuzaka, who started the year on the disabled list with a neck strain, recorded a 9.90 ERA in his first two outings before limiting Toronto to one run and three hits in seven innings of a 6-1 win Tuesday. The right-hander struck out nine and walked none.

“In the previous two, my fastball itself was not that bad, so I wanted to keep going with that,” Matsuzaka told the Red Sox’s official website.

Matsuzaka pitched well in his only start against New York last season, allowing one run and six hits in seven innings of a 3-0 loss Sept. 26 in the Bronx and he and the Red Sox are 21-7 when he pitches Game 1 of a series.

Boston dropped two of three in Detroit over the weekend, falling 5-1 on Sunday. The Red Sox, who have lost five of six on the road to give them 7-8 record on the year, and they went 2-7 at Yankee Stadium last season.
Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia is expected to be back in the lineup for this series after being held out Sunday to rest his right knee. He was 2 for 11 in the last series against the Yankees and is hitless in 11 career at-bats against Hughes.

Sportsbook.com has New York listed as -200 money line favorites for this ESPN Monday telecast with total at Un9.5. The Yankees are 35-9 as a home favorite of -175 to -250 since last year and are 16-6 OVER when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

Boston who is in fourth place in the AL East, already 7.5 games in back of Tampa Bay is 12-27 on the road vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits a start and 17-4 UNDER if the same hurler strikeouts five or more per outing.

This always tantalizing matchup begins just after 7:00 Eastern with Bronx Bombers having taken 11 of last 18 at Yankee Stadium.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-17-2010, 01:31 PM

NBA Western Conference Finals Betting Preview

(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (3) Phoenix

Talking to a number of various wise guy bettors living in Las Vegas, one conclusion was evident before the playoffs started, yes the Los Angeles Lakers looked vulnerable but were still the safest bet to win another title and the Phoenix Suns were the best long shot among the top four seeds from either conference to become the upset champions of the NBA.

Both those assessments have proven correct, however one will be kicked to the curb with the West Finals at hand. Here is a look at what each team has to do to reach the The Finals.

One aspect that is often forgotten in the NBA playoffs is how very good teams can pick up momentum. The Lakers closed the regular season 4-7 SU and ATS and were like Whitney Houston’s recent concert tour, very unimpressive. More than one sports fan believed Oklahoma City had a fair shot to upset Los Angeles in the first round and after they suffered 21-point loss to the Thunder to tie the series at two, that belief no longer seemed so far-fetched.

However, since then, L.A. has gotten serious about basketball again and has won six straight, covering five times and now another championship ring is in sight.

I apologize in advance, but there is not getting around it (literally), the size of the Lakers’ changes how teams can attack them. With Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom, it just doesn’t leave much room in the middle, which helps takes away the one inside player the Suns have in Amare Stoudemire.

L.A. guards and wing players can be super aggressive defensively, knowing what they have behind them. Ron Artest is not the defender he was a few years ago, but what he’s lost in quickness he makes up for in smarts and he will try to attach himself at the hip of Jason Richardson or Jared Dudley when he enters the game.

Phoenix has picked up a reputation as being good defensive team, while they are not as lame as when Mike D’Antoni was coach; they are far from good, mostly just average. With the talk of Grant Hill being a defensive demon, that’s all Kobe Bryant needs for a personal challenge.

Remember last year when Denver had all those high effort guys coming off the bench and they actually gave Phil Jackson’s team trouble at first, yet after Game 3 had little impact, that’s what the Lakers do as the series wears on, systematically they take away your strengths and even Derek Fisher becomes more useful knocking down shots. There is a reason why the Lake Show is 5-1 and 4-2 ATS against the Suns at Staples the past three years, they are bigger and better and hard to beat four times.

Since Steve Nash has arrived in the desert with his injury-plagued career in the balance, all he has done is transform Phoenix into the most entertaining team in the NBA and a outfit that has been among the better groups out West. Be that as it may, the window of opportunity is closing and the sense is the entire club and organization knows it.

That creates the first chance for the Suns, desperation, hardly something the Lakers ever feel and when they do, usually nothing good comes from it. (Game 6 Lakers at Boston two years ago comes to mind) Phoenix has to be able to leave all on the floor each night, no Game 1 or Game 4’s against Portland “we just weren’t focused” nights. You only get once chance to beat a champion and if you let it slip, look in the mirror.

Coach Alvin Gentry is credited for making Phoenix a more complete squad than past versions, with greater attention to detail on both ends of the floor. Steve Nash should be able to run circles around Derek Fisher, but his key is drawing the defense to him to make the assist and frustrate the Lakers big men.

Coach Jackson will try to prevent dibble penetration by Nash and make him more a shooter than facilitator, Nash has to defeat this defense by using the screen and role continually with Stoudemire. If successful, this forces other defenders to get involved and the NBA’s best outside shooting team will find itself with many more open looks.

Phoenix can’t let the Lakers play volleyball on the offensive glass; they have to at least be within five boards at all times once the second half starts.

Gentry’s bench has been a difference maker, which is why this desert squad is 22-4 and 19-6-1 ATS since Mar. 14. With how ineffective the L.A. bench is, they need to outscore them nightly by 15 or more points, which place the Suns in far more advantageous spot and could mean heavier minutes for Lakers regulars, this might matter later in the series.

It goes without saying Phoenix has to run, but as they proved against San Antonio, it’s not about running and dunking for layups, it is about beating the Lakers defense back and making the extra pass to find the three-point shooter who is open to bury the shot and wear down the big guys in gold and purple late in games.

Jackson pulled out his clichéd “zen master” card saying Nash carry’s the ball (and Michael Jordan did what in Chicago when Phil was there), but he picked the wrong guy in Nash.

"It's news to me. I'm fortunate. I don't know if I've been called for a carry yet,'' he said after the Suns practiced Saturday, then he added straight-faced: "I've never heard anyone accuse me of carrying it. I mean, the best coach in the league Greg Popovich (of San Antonio) didn't have a problem with it last week.''(Nice subtle rip on the Zen-ster)

As is said in boxing, “contrasting styles make fights”. That will be the case out West, with the Lakers trying to control tempo and have their size be a difference maker, while Phoenix wants to play fast, hit 3’s and make enough defensive stops to matter.

(In my best NBA analyst voice and following all spoken clichés) At the end of the day, the Lakers having a long break before the series, another lengthy break before heading to Arizona, gives them rest and ample time to make adjustments, which makes them awfully difficult to beat unless the opponent plays great defense.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-17-2010, 01:32 PM

NBA Conference Finals Spread Issues

One month into the NBA Playoffs and we’re down to the Conference Finals. In just two weeks the season will conclude with the Championship Finals as the 2009-10 season winds its way to the finish line.

Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com takes a peek and see what we can expect from teams in the Third Round of the playoffs. Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in Third Round action over the past 20 years, unless stated otherwise. Enjoy…

DOWN BUT NOT OUT
You can blow a good team out once. Twice is not as likely.
As we’ve learned, teams that fail miserably tend to bounce back rather than stay down. In fact, teams off a pointspread loss of more than 10 points are a very profitable 37-20-1 ATS in 3rd round playoff action.

Bring them in off a SU upset loss as a favorite and they improve to 22-9-1 ATS. Let these upset losers dress up as dogs off a pointspread loss of more than 10 points and they become a 13-3-1 ATS winning proposition.

BETTER TEAMS MAKE NICE DOGS
Taking points with better teams will seldom put you in harm’s way.

Teams with a better win percentage takings points are 47-37-1 ATS on the blind. When playing after a loss, they are 20-12-1 ATS in this round. Bring them in off a loss of 4 or more points and they improve to 19-8-1 ATS.

Best of all, when taking 4 or more points with a better team off a loss of 4 or more points you have a 11-2-1 ATS winning edge.

RUNNING ON EMPTY
You can hold a good team down, but not for long.

Teams that reach the 3rd round of the playoffs have established themselves as being better than most. When good teams come up with subpar scoring efforts they tend to bounce back in followup games.

That’s confirmed by the fact the road teams in Round Three who scored 78 or fewer points in their previous game are a wallet stretching 14-5-1 ATS. Better yet, if the Over/Under total in this round is less than 186 points they improve to 13-2 against the number.

There you have it. Three rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 3rd round of this year’s NBA playoffs.

**bryce** · 05-17-2010, 01:40 PM

Thanks for the info SDB and good luck!

**Spark** · 05-17-2010, 01:54 PM

Good Luck bum

**StarDust Bum** · 05-17-2010, 02:51 PM

Your Welcome guys..........lets get the week off to a nice start......

Announcement

The Bum's Monday's Best Bets MLB-NBA !

The Bum's Monday's Best Bets MLB-NBA !

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment