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**StarDust Bum** · 05-16-2010, 10:17 AM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
05/14/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1140 Detail
05/12/10 3-1-0 75.00% +1610 Detail
05/11/10 0-1-1 0.00% -625 Detail
05/10/10 3-1-0 75.00% +1065 Detail
05/09/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1315 Detail
05/08/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1100 Detail
05/07/10 3-1-0 75.00% +1080 Detail
05/06/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1415 Detail
05/05/10 1-2-1 33.33% -500 Detail
05/04/10 2-2-0 50.00% +180 Detail
05/03/10 3-0-1 100.00% +1500 Detail
05/02/10 3-1-0 75.00% +1720 Detail
05/01/10 2-2-0 50.00% +170 Detail
Totals 24-19-3 55.81% +3860

Sunday, May 16Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 3:00 PM ET Chicago +115 500 *****
San Jose - Over 5.5 500 *****

-----------------------------------------------------------
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
05/13/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
05/11/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
05/10/10 1-2-1 33.33% -600 Detail
05/09/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
05/08/10 4-0-0 100.00% +2000 Detail
05/07/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
05/06/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
05/05/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
05/04/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
05/03/10 0-4-0 0.00% -2200 Detail
05/02/10 4-0-0 100.00% +2000 Detail
05/01/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
Totals 22-15-1 59.46% +2750

Sunday, May 16Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 3:30 PM ET Orlando -6.5 500 *****
Orlando - Over 189 500 *****

**StarDust Bum** · 05-16-2010, 11:18 AM

NBA Playoff Eastern Conference Betting Preview

(2) Orlando vs (4) Boston

After the Orlando Magic dismissed atrocious Atlanta in four games, an article appeared on the internet, questioning if this team was as good as the one that went to The Finals a year ago. We’ll let the author of that piece further collect his thoughts while we examine the facts, at least as we know them.

Orlando has won all eight assignments in the NBA Playoffs without a loss. An argument could easily be made of those teams in the final four, the Magic have had the path of least resistance, encountering two obviously flawed clubs that any of the other three teams to join them in the middle of May would have also beaten.

In Orlando’s defense, they can only do what is asked of them and have they ever.

Dwight Howard and the Magic are 8-0 and 7-1 ATS in the playoffs. They have won these games by an average of 17.1 points a contest and covered the spread by incredible 8.8 PPG. (There only non-cover was by half a point)

Since Feb. 28, Stan Van Gundy’s team is 28-3; let that sink in a few seconds, 28-3 and equally remarkable 23-7-1 ATS. While LeBron James and Cleveland were resting up at the end of the regular season to be eliminated from the playoffs roughly a month earlier than they expected, Orlando was just getting started. They are 14-0 and 13-1 ATS since Apr. 4.

Just how good has the Magic been in last 31 games, consider they have outscored opposing teams by 436 points or 14.0 PPG. The other three teams left in the postseason did not have that large of a total points differential over 82 games! In other words Orlando is lampooning everyone these days. One other note everyone might have missed, the team with the largest point differential in the NBA was the Magic at +7.5 and since 2004, all but one of the teams that won the NBA title led their conference in this category.

Now that we’ve established just how good Jameer Nelson and his teammates are what about Boston. The Celtics just took down the “chosen” Cavaliers who were supposed to be NBA champions. After an incredibly substandard second half of the season in which Betty White and Abe Vigoda (both were in the now famous Snickers commercial) appeared downright spry compared to the Celtics, they’ve had a playoff renaissance much like Ms. White’s career.

Kevin Garnett has been bedrock solid, playing to his strengths of the mid-range jump shot and being a presence on defense. Ray Allen quietly had a strong second half of the season after hearing trade rumors, driving foes crazy running off screens and draining jump shots. Though his foot speed might not be as good as it was, Allen’s knack of squaring up players on defense and picking their pocket, places the Celtics in advantageous positions.

Paul Pierce is showing signs of life, shooting the ball better and back to taking two dumb fouls a game. Glen Davis and Tony Allen are making contributions off the bench and there was even a Rasheed Wallace sighting, adding a positive contribution here and there.

As good as all these players have played in the first two rounds of the playoffs, none of this occurs without Rajon Rondo. Much like college basketball has become reliant on point guard play, the same is also true among the elite teams in the NBA.

Rondo was the singularly dominant performer in Cleveland series, with his ability on offense and defense and he set the tone for Boston throughout.
After being a deplorable spread team all season, The C’s are 8-3 SU and ATS in the postseason and building confidence.

Part of that feeling is being supplied by coach Doc Rivers. The former Orlando coach is not going to dazzle anyone with his X and O work, which is why he brought in assistant coach Tom Thibodeau to make the strategic moves. Like a smart boss, Rivers understands his strengths and weaknesses and surrounds himself with people that compliment his skill set.

This sets up as fascinating series, especially at point guard with Rondo vs. Nelson. If either gains an edge, their team automatically has a greater chance of winning.

Watching Orlando pass the ball on offense is like a video game or pinball machine. The ball is continually in motion at various angles and if a Magic player is open, he’ll be found. This places a premium on Boston defenders to stay with their man and have arms extended to tip passes or have body parts in passing lanes. If not, the 3-point party starts for Orlando.

Pierce and Allen can certainly matchup with Vince Carter and Matt Barnes and if they can gain the upper hand they could frustrate them since they’ve played more scrimmage games than actual hard-nose basketball recently.

Orlando won three of four meetings this season (2-2 ATS). You can presume the home court not to mean much just like last year playoff series, when the road team won three times. The Magic might be the best team in basketball, nonetheless that doesn’t mean they won’t be tested by this proud bunch from Boston who believes they can win it all again.

Pick- Orlando (-260) in seven over Boston (+210)

**StarDust Bum** · 05-16-2010, 11:19 AM

NHL Western Conference Finals Betting Preview

With no disrespect to Detroit, this is the matchup most hockey fans wanted to see and large factions believe the winner will go on to win the Stanley Cup the way the Eastern Conference has played out. Chicago’s loss to Detroit on the last day of the regular season gave San Jose the top seed by a single point and home ice advantage in this series.

These teams have many similarities, including Sportsbook.com having both of them as +160 wagers favorites to bring the Cup home to their city when the postseason concludes.

Chicago has 60 wins this season and San Jose has 59. Both have 32 wins this year on home ice and each has played well on the road with the Blackhawks having one more triumph than the Sharks at 28.

Both bring ample offensive firepower that will test the others defense and goaltending. San Jose’s “Big Three” of Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley and Patrick Marleau awoke after disappointing series against Colorado and overwhelmed the Red Wings with eight goals and 12 assists. This was especially important for Thornton (eight points) whose playoff appearances mostly have had a David Copperfield feel of disappearing.

The most consistent scorer for the Sharks has been Joe Pavelski, who followed up five goals against the Avalanche with four more against Detroit. Pavelski has carried the power play with five in the net and have three game winners. San Jose is 35-15 against teams that have winning records.

Chicago has a myriad of scorers as evidenced by 11 players having 10 or more goals during the regular season. In fact, nine different forwards tallied a goal in Vancouver series. Prominent names like Jonathan Toews (4 goals), Patrick Kane (3) and Kris Versteeg (3) all help carry the scoring load and massive Dustin Byfuglien (4) was like a tank in front of Canucks goal in last series, proving the Blackhawks are at their best when being able to keep the opposing goalie and defense busy in front of their own net.

The Hawks defensemen are more offensive-oriented, swiftly taking the puck into the other end to exploit weaknesses, however are vulnerable occasionally being caught up ice. San Jose has a better blend of two-way defenders and guys that shutdown opposing teams at the blue line.

Both netminders have been solid between the pipes. The Sharks Evgeni Nabokov has been sharper in net this playoff campaign and is among the reason why his team returns to West Finals for the first time since 2004. “We're going to go as far as Nabby takes us. He's been the backbone of this team all year long," Thornton said after the clincher against Detroit.

Chicago’s defensive lapses are why goaltender Antti Niemi has allowed four or more goals six times in the playoffs. When given normal protection by his defenders, he’s risen to the moment. Chicago is 23-9 against good passing teams averaging five or more assists per game this season.

The Blackhawks have been stronger in special teams play converting 25 percent against Vancouver and they have kept opponents out of the net 88.7 percent of the time and cashed in with three shorthanded goals as well.

San Jose has been average in both situations by comparison (19.3 percent with man advantage and 84.2 percent in penalty kills). If the Sharks expect to win this series, they have to be better on the road, where they are below average in each instance.

The Blackhawks won three of four meetings this season.

“Simply put, we didn’t play very well against Chicago and we’ll have to play a lot better to win,” San Jose coach Todd McLellan said. “We need quicker starts against Chicago. We always seem to be behind the eight ball. For us to get into a track meet with this team won’t be very productive for us throughout the series.”

San Jose can advance to Cup Finals for the first time in franchise history if they stay disciplined and maintain edge in special opportunities (+19 in power play chances) and find ways to break thru against Blackhawks’ penalty killers. They cannot lose a home game as Chicago has worn down opponents as the series went further along.

Chicago is the deeper team, with more varied scoring options. The Hawks can’t take as many silly penalties, especially with how deadly Joe Pavelski has been. The Blackhawks outshot the Sharks 157-98 this season, which shows what kind of pressure they can maintain. If they can continue this, they play for the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1992.

Pick- Chicago (-105) in six over San Jose (-115)

**StarDust Bum** · 05-16-2010, 11:20 AM

Sunday Night Baseball Wagering Outlook

Through the first two games in this series, the high-powered Philadelphia Phillies have had little trouble generating offense against the Milwaukee Brewers’ beleaguered pitching staff. Little suggests much will change when the Phillies face Doug Davis, who has been knocked around in nearly every outing this season. Philadelphia looks to send the Brewers to their worst home start in franchise history, and sweep its first series in Miller Park in almost six years in Sunday night’s finale.

After a 9-5 victory Friday, the Phillies (22-13, +4.1 units) pounded out a season-best 17 hits in Saturday’s 10-6 win. Shane Victorino, who knocked in three in the opener, homered and drove in four while Chase Utley had two doubles and two RBIs.

Philadelphia improved to an NL-best 12-7 (+3units) on the road, and is seeking its first three-game sweep in Milwaukee since Aug. 20-22, 2004. The Phillies, who have plated at least nine runs in three of their last four games, appear to have a good chance of achieving this considering how poorly the Brewers (15-21, -8) are playing at home.

With a 4-13 record (-12), Milwaukee has matched the worst home start in franchise history set by the 1985 team, which played at County Stadium. Losers of five in a row overall, the Brewers have dropped seven straight at home for the first time since 2002—they haven’t lost eight consecutive home games since a nine-game skid from July 31-Aug. 11, 1996.

“I don’t want them to get discouraged,” manager Ken Macha said. “The guys are battling and giving it all they got. We’re going to work our way out of this. … We’re going through a rough patch here. The only thing to do is fight our way out of it.”

Inferior pitching has been the biggest reason for Milwaukee’s home woes with the team allowing an average of 8.6 runs during the slide.

Davis (1-4, 7.56 ERA) has seemingly been in trouble all season, as opponents have posted a .418 on-base percentage. Against Atlanta on Monday, the left-hander allowed six runs - three earned - with six walks, and hit a batter in 5 2/3 innings of an 8-2 loss. Davis has looked shaky in nearly every start this season, but is still trying to stay positive.

“I’m puzzled,” he said. “But I believe everything evens out, too.” However a 2-10 record vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs a game on the season seems to refute Davis’ belief.

This will be Davis’ first start against the Phillies since yielding six runs and four walks in five innings of a 12-3 loss on Aug. 20 while with Arizona.
Philadelphia counters with Cole Hamels (3-2, 4.53), who is 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA in six career starts versus Milwaukee.

Hamels earned his first win since April 12 last Sunday, but wasn’t particularly sharp, yielding three runs, eight hits and four walks in five innings to beat Atlanta 5-3. It was the left-hander’s shortest outing since tossing five innings in a win over Washington in his season debut.

Hamel and his mates are 5-12 against NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a contest over the last two seasons. In his only start against the Brewers last season, Hamels left with one out in the third inning after being hit in the left shoulder by a line drive off the bat of Prince Fielder.

Sportsbook.com has the Phillies as -140 money line choice with total at U10 and they are 10-2 on the road vs. NL teams scoring 5.3 or more runs a game and 12-3 OVER as visiting club facing a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse over the last two seasons. Milwaukee is 2-9 after permitting 10 or more runs at home since 2008 and is 11-3 OVER after a loss by four runs or more this year.

This is the Sunday Night ESPN game that begins just after 8:00 Eastern and Philly is 26-9 on Sunday’s.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-16-2010, 11:22 AM

Magic-Celtics Outlook

Eastern Conference Finals

**No. 2 Orlando Magic vs. 4 Boston Celtics**

Series Price: Orlando -280 Boston +250

Series Format: Orlando 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Sunday (5/16)
Game 2 - Tuesday (5/18)
Game 3 - Saturday (5/22)
Game 4 - Monday (5/24)
Game 5 - Wednesday (5/26)
Game 6 - Friday (5/28)
Game 7 - Sunday (5/30)

Head to Head Comparisons (Playoffs)
Team SU ATS Home Away O/U PPG DPPG
67-23 (8-0) 53-35 (7-1) 36-52 (2-5-1) 38-7 (4-0) 29-16 (4-0) 102.6 94.2
58-35 (8-3) 41-50 (8-3) 47-45 (6-5) 29-18 (5-1) 29-17 (3-2) 99.1 95.1

2009-10 Head to Head Meetings
Nov. 20, 2009 Orlando (+6) 83 at Boston 78 UNDER 190.5
Dec. 25, 2009 Boston (+5.5) 86 at Orlando 77 UNDER 191
Jan. 28, 2010 Orlando (-3.5) 96 vs. Boston 94 OVER 189.5
Feb. 7, 2010 Orlando (+3) 96 at Boston 89 UNDER 187.5

How they got here: Orlando has been perfect so far through the playoffs, winning all eight of its games. The Magic faced a little adversity against Charlotte in the first round but walloped Atlanta by an average of 23 points per game in the conference semifinals. Orlando's defense was great in all of the victories, which held the Bobcats and Hawks under the century mark in every contest during the first two rounds.

Boston built a 3-0 commanding lead over Miami in first round and finished off the series in five games. Then, the Celtics proved that age was only a number after they upset Cleveland in the six games of the conference semifinals. What's more impressive about the victory over the Cavs is that Boston trailed 2-1 in the series before winning three straight by margins of 10, 32 and nine points.

Head-to-Head: This series is a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference semifinals, when everybody was hoping Boston would've met Cleveland in the conference finals. It looked like the Celtics were going to advance as they held a 3-2 lead over Orlando in the conference semifinals but Stan Van Gundy's squad held serve at home in Game 6 before stunning the Celtics in Game 7 (101-82) on the road. What people sometimes forget about the Celtics' fall last year is that they were without Kevin Garnett's duties in the playoffs. However, the Magic didn't have Jameer Nelson as well due to a shoulder injury.

During the regular season, three of the four games were decided by double digits except the Jan. 28 meeting in Orlando, when the Magic nipped the C's 96-94 on an uncontested layup by Rashard Lewis. The road team also won three of the four encounters, and it should be noted that nobody scored 100-plus points in any of the battles.

Games within the Game: The point guard battle between Rajon Rondo and Jameer Nelson could be the key to this series. Neither was tested in the first two rounds and most pundits would deem this as a push, considering Rondo should have his way turning the corner, while Nelson has ability to knock down his jumper consistently. Nelson didn't play last year versus and Celtics and he wasn't stellar in his three games this season against Boston.

Will the Celtics double-team Dwight Howard? Kendrick Perkins will get the task of taking on the All-Star center and he's held his own in the past but his health for this series is questionable. He's been nursing a knee injury and has missed practice heading into Game 1. The offseason addition of Rasheed Wallace for Boston saw some dividends against the Cavs in the semis, but his main purpose was to match up against Howard. Does Wallace have enough to slow him down? If not, at least his outside shot should open up the paint.

Kevin Garnett did a heck of a job on Antwan Jamison in the second round but can he do the same against Rashard Lewis, who is a better shooter and finisher? His range will pull KG away from the rim, which is where he excels in rebounding.

The X-Factor in this series could come down to Paul Pierce and Ray Allen vs. Vince Carter. Pierce and Allen already have a ring, but Carter is no stranger to playoff experience. They all love to take the big shot, and they can make 'em too. Tony Allen will spell Pierce off the bench, but he doesn't have the offensive fireworks that the Magic bring off the pine. Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus, Matt Barnes and J.J. Redick all have the ability to stroke from 3-point land and they're active on defense as well.

Gambling Notes: Orlando opened as a 6 ½-point favorite in Game 1 over Boston, similar to this year's numbers in the regular season and last year's playoff series. The Celtics will most likely be catching short points (1-2) at home or laying in the same range.

The total on Game 1 is hovering between 189 and 190. Three of the four regular season meetings went 'under' the number and the lone 'over' just cashed by a half-point. The 'under' went 5-2 in the conference semis last year, with the total ranging from 187 to 194.

All of the games will be played on one day of rest except for Game 3, which have three days of rest. Boston (6-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) has been up and down on rest this year, but Orlando (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) has been an absolute beast, winning by an average of 21 PPG (110-89) during these situations. Make a note that this situation fits Game 1 for Orlando, who hasn't played since sweeping Atlanta on Monday.

Outlook: Orlando proved last year that it's a legit playoff contender when it lost to the L.A. Lakers in six games of the NBA Finals. It's safe to say that this Magic team is better on both ends of the floor, healthier and deeper too. What Boston did to Cleveland was amazing in the conference semis but can the team do enough to repeat that performance against the Magic? Orlando gets a lot of attention for Howard's dunks and the eye opening amount of 3-pointers they take, but Stan Van Gundy's team is great defensively. The Celtics have the talent to win this series, but the depth concerns seem overwhelming. In the last 11 years, eight of the Eastern Conference Finals have been decided in exactly six games. With that being said, we expect Orlando to wrap this series up in six games, which can be bet at Sportsbook.com at odds of plus-450 (Bet $100 to win $450). If you think Orlando takes it in Game 7 (+300) or Game 5 (+250), those odds are more rewarding than laying -250 on the series price.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-16-2010, 11:23 AM

Western Conference Final

No. 1 San Jose Sharks vs. No. 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Series Price: San Jose -125, Chicago +110

Series Format: San Jose, 2-2-1-1-1

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU PUCK LINE HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER
60-26-8 43-51 34-12-4 30-16-1 46-43-5
62-23-13 43-56 34-8-8 27-16-5 47-44-2

2009-10 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
01/28/10 Chicago 4 (+110) @ San Jose 3 in OT OVER 5.5
12/22/09 San Jose 3 (+130) @ Chicago 2 UNDER 5.5
11/25/09 Chicago 7 (+115) @ San Jose 2 OVER 5.5
11/15/09 San Jose 3 @ Chicago 4 (-130) in OT OVER 5.5

Skinny: We’re all familiar with the Sharks and their ability to fail on an epic level in the postseason. During these playoffs, however, San Jose has begun to look like a team that is ready to make it to the next level – the Stanley Cup Final.

San Jose was able to survive an up and coming young squad in the first round in the Avalanche. A great series win, but was expected nonetheless. A triumph over the Red Wings, on the other hand, and you give the kids from the Silicon Valley a legitimate chance to shed that “underachiever” label. And after dropping Detroit in five games, we can begin looking at the Sharks a big boy team.

The Sharks did show a lot of grit in their Western Conference Semifinal win. They were able to come back twice for wins after trailing the Wings heading into the third period. Naysayers will no doubt point to Jimmy Howard handling goaltending duties like a Silver Spoons-Era Ricky Schroder. But come on, throw the Sharks a bone on this one.

If those negative-minded people want to harp on anything with San Jose they can start with the usual suspects doing what they do best at this time of year, nothing. Joe Thornton (3 goals, 8 assists), Dan Boyle (2 goals, 7 assists) and Patrick Marleau (3 goals, 4 assists) have not done much to push the Sharks forward. Even Dany Heatley (2 goals, 9 assists) has been a bust when it comes to finding the back of the net in the postseason. Luckily for all of them that Joe Pavelski is man enough to put the team on his back. Pavelski has scored a career-best nine playoff goals.

Pavelski has also taken some of the spotlight away from Evgeni Nabokov in goal. “Nabby” has looked shaky at times during the playoffs. Nabokov has allowed at least three goals in five of the 11 playoff games for the Sharks. And his awareness has to be in question still after that own-goal that cost San Jose in Game 3 of its series against the Avs.

San Jose will need Nabokov to play at his very best against the Blackhawks. Chicago has scored 40 goals during the postseason, the most of any of the clubs still actively pursuing the Lord Stanley’s pimp chalice.

Patrick Kane (7 goals, 8 assists) and Jonathan Toews (6 goals, 14 assists) are quickly becoming hockey legends in the Windy City. It’s not just those two skaters that are contributing. Patrick Sharp has found the back of the net five times and Dustin Byfuglien has four lamp lighters to his credit (all against Vancouver).

When you have attackers finding ways to put the puck past the opposing goalie, you’re going to also do well on special teams. Chicago has scored on 21.6 percent of its power plays this postseason. That number is down from the 27.9 percent they connected on in the ’09 playoffs, but is still respectable. Even better for the Hawks is that they are stopping 88.7 percent of the advantages they have allowed to their opponents in the tourney.

Antti Niemi hasn’t received a lot of attention, but he has played quite well to reach his first Western Conference Final. He boasts a .909 save percentage and 2.57 goals against average. Solid numbers when you consider he took on a surprisingly game Nashville squad in the first round and took everything the Canucks could give him in the conference semis.

Gambling Notes: Home ice is supposed to be important for the higher seed. Yet we’ve seen time and time again in the playoffs that playing at home just means you have a better chance of letting down your fans in front of their eyes.

These two teams know something about letting down the home town faithful when facing one another as the road club is 3-1 in the season series. Gamblers have seen high scoring affairs between these two sides as the ‘over’ is 3-1 for the 2009-10 campaign.

Chicago has proven themselves to be the biggest road warriors of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. That’s because they have gone 5-1 in six postseason tests away from the United Center…two of those wins clinching against the Preds and Canucks.

It’s going to be a tough thing for the Blackhawks to win at the HP Pavilion. San Jose has won five of its six home tests in the playoffs and is 13-2 in its last 15 on home ice.

The Hawks have won five of their last seven fixtures against Pacific Division opponents, covering the puck line in four straight.

San Jose has gone 7-1 over its past eight tests with Central Division foes, including the five-game triumph against the Red Wings. The ‘over’ is 5-3 in those tilts.

Outlook: This is a tough series to gauge for me. You have one team that appears to finally be living up to expectations. And there is a team on the other side that is young, but is ready to make the next logical step in its maturation.

The goaltenders cancel one another out for this contest, in my opinion. In fact, both defenses are equally solid. On offense, however, is where they differ. Chicago has many more weapons that are used to this level of play. The Sharks still can’t get their top weapons to fire with regularity in the playoffs. That will make the difference as the Blackhawks win in six games.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-16-2010, 11:24 AM

Sunday Tips

The Sunday baseball card features several solid pitching matchups, while the home teams look to continue their success on this day. Following a 17-14 start the first three Sundays of the season, home squads are an impressive 35-10 the last three Sundays. The home underdogs have cashed at a strong rate with a 13-4 ledger in this span. We'll take a look at four of the key matchups on the card starting with a rematch of last season's ALDS in the Bronx.

Twins at Yankees - 1:05 PM EST

Minnesota looks to break through at New York following 12 consecutive losses to the Yankees dating back to last season. The Twins have dropped 12 in a row at Yankee Stadium after Saturday's 7-1 defeat, as Minnesota sends out Nick Blackburn to stop the bleeding.

Blackburn (3-1, 4.76 ERA) has been helped by solid run support with the Twins averaging 5.67 runs/game in his six starts (Minnesota is 5-1). The Twins are 6-13 the last 19 starts in which Blackburn was listed as a road underdog and 7-14 the previous 21 overall on the highway. Blackburn is winless at Yankee Stadium, while the Twins are 1-4 in his five career starts against the defending champions.

Sergio Mitre (0-1, 3.86 ERA) makes his second start of the season after dropping his first outing at Detroit last Monday. Mitre allowed four runs (three earned) and five hits in just 4.1 innings of a 5-4 setback to the Tigers. The ex-Cubs and Marlins righty is making his 11th start in a Yankees uniform, but only one of those outings was a quality start, that coming in a 10-0 thrashing of the White Sox last August.

Minnesota has not been swept in a series this season, as Ron Gardenhire's club was last swept on the road a year ago coincidentally against the Yankees in the Bronx. The Bombers are 2-2 this season when going for a sweep, but both victories did come at home against the Rangers and Orioles.

Cardinals at Reds - 1:10 PM EST

Few people are surprised that St. Louis sits atop the NL Central. But the team that is right on the Redbirds' heels in the division may shock some as Cincinnati looks to stay at arms' length with a Sunday victory.

Bronson Arroyo (2-2, 5.36 ERA) continues to be one of the more erratic pitchers in baseball, compiling only three quality starts in seven outings this season. Arroyo is fresh off a solid performance in a road victory over the Pirates, scattering five hits and one earned run in seven innings of a 2-1 win. The righty did not receive a decision the last time he faced the Cardinals, but Arroyo was strong by allowing four hits and one run in eight innings on April 8. The Reds won the game, 2-1, thanks to a walk-off homer by Jonny Gomes.

The opposing starting pitcher in that game takes the mound on Sunday for the Cardinals as Brad Penny (3-3, 1.70 ERA) goes for St. Louis. The veteran has been a tremendous pickup for the Cards, delivering quality outings in each of his seven starts. St. Louis has dropped each of Penny's last three starts including twice as a favorite of at least $2.00 against Houston and Cincinnati. Penny has been on the wrong side of a pair of one-run defeats to the Reds this season, including a 3-2 setback at Busch Stadium on April 30.

The Reds are 4-8 the last 12 games when Arroyo starts as a home underdog, while Cincinnati is 2-6 in Arroyo's previous eight home outings during the day. The Cardinals have finished 'under' the total in ten of their last 12 road games, including last night's 4-3 loss to the Reds.

Diamondbacks at Braves - 1:35 PM EST

Atlanta is finally turning the corner following a nine-game skid by winning nine of 14 as the Braves wrap up their series with the scuffling D-Backs. Both teams send out their veteran aces for the finale as the Braves look to keep their hot bats alive against Dan Haren.

The D-Backs had dropped seven straight going into Saturday's matchup at Turner Field, but Arizona snapped the skid with an 11-1 pounding of Atlanta. Haren (4-2, 4.23 ERA) has delivered four quality starts on the road this season, but the righty tries to bounce back after getting knocked around by the Dodgers his last time out. The ace allowed ten hits and four earned runs in 6.1 innings, despite Haren striking out ten batters in a 13-3 loss. Haren beat the Braves last season at home by going eight innings and giving up just two earned runs.

Tim Hudson (3-1, 2.64 ERA) has been solid all season, coming off a dominating performance at Milwaukee in his last start. Hudson delivered his fifth straight quality outing by allowing six hits and one earned run in six innings of an 11-3 drubbing of the Brewers. The veteran hasn't faced Arizona since 2007, but he hasn't given up a run in each of his last two starts against the D-Backs in road victories in '06 and '07.

Arizona has been one of the top 'over' teams all seasons, but the D-Backs are 6-4 to the 'under' in the last ten games. Eight times in this stretch Arizona has scored three runs or less. Atlanta, meanwhile, is riding a five-game 'over' streak, while averaging 8 runs/game in this span.

Mariners at Rays - 1:40 PM EST

Seattle looked awful when it got swept at home by Tampa Bay at the start of May. The Mariners picked up revenge with a Friday night victory over the Rays as $1.70 road underdogs by edging Tampa Bay, 4-3. Runs will be at a premium with two of the American League's best pitchers taking the mound in Cliff Lee and Matt Garza.

Lee (1-1, 2.01 ERA) makes his fourth start of the season, as the lefty is fresh off his first win as a Mariner by shutting down the Orioles. The Rays got to Lee back on May 5 by scoring five runs in eight innings against the former Cy Young Award winner in an 8-3 win. Lee is 3-1 the last four starts at Tropicana Field, all as a member of the Indians, including a 5-2 win as a road underdog on August 4, 2008.

Garza (5-1, 2.49 ERA) is coming off a no-decision in his last start against the Angels, even though his offense bailed him out by tying the game in the ninth inning. Tampa Bay eventually lost in extra innings, but the Rays' righty allowed four earned runs and two homers in 7.2 innings. Earlier on that road trip, Garza silenced Lee and the Mariners by going eight strong innings in the five-run triumph. Tampa Bay is 7-2 the last nine home games started by Garza dating back to last season, including a 2-1 mark this season.

The Rays are 9-2 the last 11 games against left-handed starters despite hitting just .231 versus southpaws. The Mariners are amazingly 1-8 the last nine games at Safeco Field, but 4-3 the previous six contests on the highway after Saturday's one-run defeat.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-16-2010, 03:16 PM

NASCAR Dover: Johnson a monster favorite

A bit earlier than usual, Dover International Speedway hosts its first of two season Cup Series races this Sunday, the Autism Speaks 400. Because of the late arrival of the Memorial Day holiday, the Coca-Cola 600 and preceeding all-star festivities from Charlotte were pushed back a week, leaving a void in the schedule. Dover, which usually runs its first race in late May or early June, filled that void. Still, other than perhaps a bit cooler temperatures, little figures to change as the circuit takes on the concrete track known as the Monster Mile. Jimmie Johnson, mired in a bit of a slump the past few weeks, was the “monster” here a year ago, sweeping both races. He is a heavy favorite for Sunday’s event, coming in at 4-1 odds according to Sportsbook.com.

Jimmie Johnson is the obvious favorite as oddsmakers don’t expect his recent 3-week skid to reach four weeks. In his last three starts, Johnson’s best finish has been a 10th, with an average of 25.7. Back at a track where he is obviously comfortable having won the last two races, a rebound would certainly not surprise. While Johnson has gone cold, another driver has taken center stage, Denny Hamlin. He has won three of the circuit’s last six races, including last week’s Southern 500 from Darlington. In the process, Hamlin has reached 6th place in the season points standings. The ironic thing is that his fortunes directly contradict Johnson’s. While hot lately, Hamlin has been plain AWFUL at Dover, averaging a finish of 35.4 in his last five starts, including two DNF’s. His odds are still just 8-1, fourth highest for the week.

Jimmie Johnson leads the series with 653 laps led during the six races run at Dover in the COT. His average finish in those races has been 7.2, with three Top 5 finishes among those starts. Those latter numbers are topped by various drivers from the Roush Racing Team however. In fact, Carl Edwards (20-1), Greg Biffle (20-1) and Matt Kenseth (15-1) could all prove to be worthwhile investments this Sunday based upon their recent histories. Kenseth is working on a streak of four straight Top 4 finishes at Dover. He has led 336 laps and has scored five Top 5’s in the six COT races since ’07. However, he has not won during that stretch. Edwards and Biffle both own victories in that span, along with three other Top 5’s. Edwards is #1 in average finish at 4.5, followed closely by Biffle’s 4.7. Only three other drivers have more than a single Top 5 finish since ’07, those being Mark Martin (12-1), Kurt Busch (12-1), and Kyle Busch (7-1). Martin is working on a stretch of ten Top 10 finishes in his last 12 Dover starts, for four different teams. Kyle has a win in this race in ’08 to his credit, but both brothers have averaged worse than a 20th place finish her in the COT.

Obviously Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards are appealing underdogs at 20-1, but beyond that, some other longshots that could contend this week are Tony Stewart (15-1), Juan Montoya (25-1), Kevin Harvick (15-1), and Ryan Newman (25-1). One driver I’ve yet to mention to this point is Jeff Gordon, who is listed at a lofty 6-1 this week. Oddsmakers seem to believe he is due to reach Victory Lane any week now, but his average finish in the COT at Dover is just 10.7 and his luck lately has kept him out of the Winner’s Circle, not helped him reach it.

Besides Denny Hamlin, the list of drivers who have struggled at Dover might include Jeff Burton, Jamie McMurray, Clint Bowyer, Brian Vickers, and Kevin Harvick, none of which has registered a Top 5 finissh in any of the six races at the Moster Mile since ’07. I mention Harvick as a potential underdog only in that he remains the season points leader and seems to be breaking recent trends at every track he encounters this season.

Speaking of the points standings, Kevin Harvick boasts his biggest lead of the young season, at 110 points over Jimmie Johnson, and 113 points over Kyle Busch. Jeff Gordon is fourth and Matt Kenseth rounds out the Top 5. The biggest positive movers last week after Darlington’s finish were Jamie McMurray, Brian Vickers, and David Reutimann, all of whom climbed at least three spots. Those who dropped three positions or more were Clint Bowyer, Tony Stewart, Paul Menard, and A.J. Allmendinger. The cricital 12th spot in the standings is held down by Dale Earnhardt, Jr., 16-points ahead of Martin Truex.

The racing at Dover is rarely boring, as the track is often called a bigger version of Bristol because of its concrete surface. Most teams will stiffen up their chassis similarly for both facilities to account for the difference. The track is just a mile long and the banking is 24 degrees in the turns, steep unlike the other one-mile tracks on the circuit. There is normally plenty of action on the track at any one time. Sizable wrecks of five or six cars are not uncommon. Most of that has earned this venue the nickname of “The Monster Mile”. Taming that monster is the goal for all 43 drivers and teams on race day. Normally, the winning driver here is aggressive by nature and boasts a recipe of good horsepower and downforce. Dover has been known to be tough on engines. However, in recent years, fuel strategy and patience have played an increased role. Taking 400 miles around this track can take a lot out of a driver and engine.

This week’s action starts with qualifying on Friday at 3:10 PM ET. Starting position has proved critical historically at The Monster Mile as of the last 76 winners here, 35 of them have started in the top three positions. Jimmie Johnson started on the pole in the fall race last season and 8th in this race. Additionally, only three drivers have come from outside of the top 20 to reach victory lane. In terms of practice speeds, it should also be noted that all of the past five winners, not coincidentally driving the COT, ranked among the Top 6 cars in their given Happy Hour sessions, averaging 3.2. The race green flag is set to drop on Sunday at 1:10 PM ET. Prepare yourself for all the action with this week’s ******* NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages & Matchup Analyzer

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