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**tech fan** · 05-15-2010, 10:25 AM

Gl buddy

**StarDust Bum** · 05-15-2010, 11:40 AM

At the Gate - Preankess

After spending Preakness Day at Pimlico for about 15 years running, I have missed the debauchery the past few years since I moved to Florida.

There are plenty of beach bars here in Florida, but I have not seen anything approaching the “Running of the Urinals” found on the infield at Pimlico.

I spent most of my time in the tame clubhouse and press box, and only made a couple of trips out to the infield, and the visits never lasted more than the time between races.

I will miss getting my “Preak On” this year, but I am thankful I will spend the afternoon glued to the computer and watching the races on television.

Although racing in Maryland is in a sad state right now, hurt by neighboring states having slots fueled purses, today’s card at Pimlico is one of the best I have seen in a long time.

There are 13 races on the marathon card that spans more than eight hours. With the exception of the $100,000 Chick Lang, which drew a small field of six, the dozen of other races including the Preakness Stakes all drew large and competitive fields.

Toss in a couple of good cards at Churchill Downs and Belmont Park, and I have a menu of 34 races to wager on this afternoon.

I sent my wife to the beach and I will be taking the phone off the hook.

While I may not be doused in beer or find myself in a mosh pit surrounded by scantily clad coeds, I will be getting my ‘Preak On” in my own special way.

The wagering action starts early. Post time for the Pimlico opener is 10:45am eastern time.

To purchase my full card report for Preakness Day, Churchill Downs and Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.

Here is today's opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Alw $38,000N1X (1:00 ET)

#1 Friend Or Foe / #1a Backcountry Boy 3/1

#3 Seis de Mayo 7/2

#2 Hot Minute 7/5

#6 Sourceofthenile 8/1

Analysis: #1 Friend Or Foe was a good looking maiden winner in his debut at Gulfstream Park for the Kimmel barn that does not always have them fully cranked first time out. Three runners have come out of that race to graduate in their next starts. Now the colt gets to face state breds in his first go against winners. He is a half to Stolen Star ($210K) and Dixieland Star ($125K). Entrymate #1a Backcountry Boy is coming off a solid runner up finish at this level and is a good backup, completing a strong entry.

#3 Seis de Mayo pressed the early pace and drew off smartly to break his maiden in his debut last October. The Galluscio barn is showing a 3 for 10 mark with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. This colt was a $25K purchase which may be a bargain if he comes back running. He is out of the stakes winner Pleasant Baby ($327K) and a half to Le Beacet ($260K).

Wagering

WIN: #1 to win at 2/1 or better.

EX: 1,3 / 1,2,3,6

TRI: 1,3 / 1,2,3,6 / 1,2,3,6,7

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 Alw $39,000N1X (4:44 ET)

#8 Tom Kitten 9/2

#7 Woodrunner 4/1

#10 Aheadofthejoneses 3/1

#3 Midnight Billy 15/1

Analysis: #8 Tom Kitten made a good late rally to finish third last out in a paceless race, beaten 1 1/4 lengths for the top spot. The gelding looks to be on the improve and should see some pace in front of him here. He has a solid turf pedigree, by Kitten's Joy out of the turf stakes winner Coax Classic ($195K), who has dropped three other turf winners. I like the jock switch here from Jara to Garcia.

#7 Woodrunner exits the same race as our top pick where he tracked the early pace and came up short in the stretch. It was his first go off a six month layoff and this guy is eligible to move forward off that effort. This guy is a half to a couple of stakes winners

Wagering

WIN: #8 to win at 3/1 or better.

EX: 7,8 / 3,7,8,10

TRI: 7,8 / 3,7,8,10 / 1,3,7,8,9,10

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:

CD Race 10 Matt Winn (5:29 ET)

#3 Cool Bullet 5/2

#2 Privilaged 3/1

#6 Thiskyhasnolimit 2/1

#4 Vow to Wager 7/2

Analysis: #3 Cool Bullet was a sharp winner over the poly last out in the Hansel at Turfway Park and has now won his last three starts sprinting. The colt took the Sugar Bowl over conventional dirt four back at Fair Grounds. The gelding owns a good edge in early and mid pace numbers and he looks like he should be able to shake loose in the early going. He should be able to handle the extra furlong here.

#2 Privilaged dueled for the early lead from the outside and weakened to finish third last out in the Swale (G2) at Gulfstream Park in his first go off a three month break. That effort was also his first go over a conventional dirt surface. He has been working well here and looks like a good fit for the Sadler barn that has been sending out live runners at the meet.

Wagering

WIN: #3 to win at 9/5 or better.

EX: 2,3 / 2,3,6

TRI: no play

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Pimlico:

PIM Race 11 The Dixie G2 (5:12 ET)

#2 Grassy 5/1

#9 Rahystrada 6/1

#4 Just as Well 3/1

#5 Forgotten Dynasty 10/1

Analysis: #2 Grassy made a good late run to finish in the runner up spot last out at Keeneland in his first start off a 5 1/2 month layoff. The lightly raced four year old should move forward off that effort and showed some promise last year with a couple of wins on turf and a close up fourth in his stakes debut in the Jamaica 'Cap (G1). Gomez sticks with this colt, who is a half to seven turf winners including Lady in Waiting ($249K) and Desert Destiny ($215K).

#9 Rahystrada tracked the early pace while down along the inside, altered course to the outside when lacking room at the 3/16's and finished up well for the win. The gelding won 4 of 7 last year including the River City (G3) at Churchill Downs. He looks capable of moving forward off his latest and note Karlsson comes in to ride the gelding, her lone mount for today.

Wagering

WIN: #2 to win at 7/2 or better.

EX: 2,9 / 2,4,5,9

TRI: 2,9 / 2,4,5,9 / 1,2,4,5,9,13

Live Longshots:

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Churchill Downs

R1: #4 Church Mouse 8/1

R2: #7 Devastator 10/1

R4: 32 Chaffee John 20/1

R8: #1 Some Kinda Trouble 10/1

R11: #10 Executive Chief 12/1

R11: #7 Shot Gun Cliff 10/1

Good luck today!

**StarDust Bum** · 05-15-2010, 11:57 AM

Super Saver goes for second jewel

BALTIMORE - When the Kentucky Derby winner gets here for the Preakness Stakes, a groundswell of support often follows him. So it was last year with Mine That Bird, whose longshot win and obscure Western connections combined to make him an instant folk hero. Big Brown came to Pimlico in 2008 off an overpowering victory in the Derby, his Triple Crown quest gaining steam with every sentence uttered by his confident trainer, Rick Dutrow.

Funny Cide was an Everyman story, his owners, mostly high school chums from a small town in upstate New York, arriving in a yellow school bus to cheer on their plucky gelding. Smarty Jones was owned by an ailing car salesman who lived just up I-95 near Philadelphia, and came into the second leg of the Triple Crown having never lost a race.

And then there's Super Saver.

He has all the requisite attributes of a worthy Derby winner. Super Saver was an accomplished stakes winner at 2, steadily progressed in his 3-year-old preps toward a peak performance in the Derby, gave jockey Calvin Borel his third Derby win in four years, and rewarded both trainer Todd Pletcher and his owners, the WinStar Farm of Bill Casner and Kenny Troutt, with their first Derby victory.

Yet Super Saver seemingly has yet to capture the public's imagination as post time nears for the 135th Preakness on Saturday at Pimlico. Super Saver is the favorite on the morning lines set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper, and Frank Carulli, the linemaker at Pimlico, yet take a look at the selections of handicappers in this publication, and others, and you'll see picks that are all over the map, reflecting the perception that even though Super Saver won the Derby by 2 1/2 lengths, he is by no means perceived as a standout in this $1omillion race.

What gives?

"Everybody's looking for a story line," Pletcher said outside the Pimlico stakes barn on Thursday morning. "Calvin won his third Derby, I got my first, and I think that took away somewhat from the attention on Super Saver. Funny Cide was a New York-bred, a Cinderella story. What I think got lost in the shuffle with Super Saver is the focus on some of the bad trips in the Derby. Super Saver got a good trip, but the reason he got a good trip is that he made his own trip with his tractability."

It's an argument familiar to those who shake their heads at those people who still think Alydar was better than Affirmed, or Easy Goer better than Sunday Silence. In those cases, as with Super Saver, the ability to work out a perfect trip because of contending early speed put them in a position that horses with less maneuverability could not get. On Saturday, Super Saver again figures to get an ideal trip.

But the 12-horse Preakness field is 40-percent smaller than at the Derby, so more horses should be afforded better trips, most notably Lookin At Lucky, who was severely compromised by drawing the rail in the Derby, in which he finished sixth as the favorite.

"He thought he was in a hockey game," said Lookin At Lucky's trainer, Bob Baffert. "He got checked into the boards."

There also are seven horses in the Preakness who did not run in the Derby. They come into the race fresh, whereas the Derby horses are wheeling back in two weeks following a 20-horse rodeo on a sloppy, sealed racetrack at Churchill Downs.

"Two weeks matters to me," said trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who sends out Dublin, who was seventh in the Derby, and fresh face Northern Giant. "It matters to every guy in here. We're all concerned about it, their energy level coming back in two weeks."

There should be plenty of energy at Pimlico. With local colleges letting out for the year around this time, a trip to the infield is a rite of passage in the area. Last year, prices were raised for admission and, more importantly, liquor restricted, leading to a connect-the-dots crowd in the infield, and an announced ontrack attendance of 77,850, the smallest announced crowd for the Preakness since 1983. This year, in an attempt to woo back that demographic, Pimlico has reduced prices, and offered a policy whereby an additional $20 payment to the infield Mug Club allows a patron a souvenir cup that yields unlimited refills. Cheers!

A local advertising campaign titled "Get Your Preak On" has generated plenty of publicity in the area. There are banners and signs with that slogan all around town. And while the phrase has been controversial to some, there is no doubt this advertising campaign has accomplished what it set out to do, bring attention to the biggest horse race in the state.

Can the Derby winner be a Super Freak? The distance of the Preakness, 1 3/16 miles - 110 yards shorter than the Derby - is obviously right up Super Saver's alley. On paper, there is less early speed in the Preakness than the Derby. Super Saver has won races either on the lead or stalking, so he affords Borel options.

In the Derby, "he adapted to a fast pace," Pletcher said.

"Any time Calvin needed to make a move, he was there."

Lookin At Lucky has a new rider, Martin Garcia, who replaces Garrett Gomez. Look for Lookin At Lucky to be in a better early position. He breaks from post 7 after drawing the rail in the Derby.

In addition to Super Saver, Lookin At Lucky, and Dublin, others exiting the Derby are Paddy O'Prado, who was third, and Jackson Bend, who was 12th.

Nick Zito, Jackson Bend's trainer, on Thursday morning said he would like to see his small colt "close to the pace" under jockey Mike Smith.
"I'd like to see him close up," Zito said. "Mike's got to keep an eye on the race."

In addition to Northern Giant, there are six other horses in the Preakness - Aikenite, Caracortado, First Dude, Pleasant Prince, Schoolyard Dreams, and Yawanna Twist - who did not run in the Derby.

Caracortado is another who figures to attempt to secure a position stalking the early leaders.

"I'd like to try and put him in the race a little more," said Mike Machowsky, who trains and is the co-owner of Caracortado.

The Preakness, whose post time is listed at 6:15 p.m. Eastern, is the 12th race on a 13-race card that begins at 10:45 a.m. The race will be seen live on NBC on a show beginning at 4:30 p.m. There is all-day coverage from Pimlico on HRTV.

The forecast for Saturday is terrific, a high temperature of 75 degrees and no chance of rain. The high Friday was forecast to be 87 degrees, but thunderstorms that evening were predicted to break the heat, then move out, leaving ideal weather for Saturday.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-15-2010, 12:00 PM

Expert opinion on today’s Preakness

Several folks have asked my opinion of this year's 3-year-old crop. Putting to good use the benefit of a strong Liberal Arts education, I have responded in all instances with this gem: "Meh."

Still, the Preakness is not only the second jewel of racing's hallowed Triple Crown, but it is an American treasure. I'm not enamored with the race, but I'd use the following four horses in my multi-race wagers:

#8 SUPER SAVER showed a new dimension when rating off the pace in the Kentucky Derby and it looks like he's peaked at the right time for Todd Pletcher. I usually hate to play short-priced horses coming off of perfect trips (especially when the candy trip came over wet going), but I don't really like the alternatives, and Super Saver is handy enough to be placed wherever Calvin Borel wants to go. I wouldn't be surprised if Borel puts Super Saver on the lead ala his Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes score of 2009, but he seems just as comfortable from close range as well. Expect Super Saver to be prominent when they turn for home. He's the horse to beat.
While Super Saver didn't have a straw in his path during the Derby run, several other horses had trouble. #7 LOOKIN AT LUCKY had the sexy trouble that everyone saw, but #12 Dublin didn't exactly have a clean race either. One must be wary of Dublin at this distance as he may be a miler in disguise, but he's run several races fast enough to win this, and would likely appreciate getting his tootsies back on dry footing. I'm guessing Garrett Gomez will take him back in the hope of exploiting one burst of speed at the right time. Dublin should be a price and is worth inclusion.

Admittedly, #5 YAWANNA TWIST is a stab. A lightly-raced New York-bred by the sprint sire Yonaguska, Yawanna Twist may not want to go this far. Still, I thought he ran well in the Gotham two back despite his inexperience. Last time out, in the Illinois Derby, it looked like he was on his way to victory before crumpling in the stretch behind Kentucky Derby also-ran American Lion. I didn't like the way Yawanna Twist was drifting during the Illinois Derby stretch run but he may have some upside potential, and I like his tactical speed. Bombs away?

#10 PADDY O'PRADO looked like a very tired horse in the final 100 yards of the Kentucky Derby as he switched back to his wrong lead at that point. That was a gallant effort from a colt that was still a maiden in early March. I wonder if he's a bit over the top after three straight grueling races, and I'm not sure if he really wants to go longer than nine furlongs. Still, he shouldn't be so far back in the Preakness, and isn't out of the picture with another good performance.

As for the others:

#1 AIKENITE made up late ground in the one-turn Derby Trial at Churchill Dwons three weeks ago, but I'm beginning to think that he may be more effective as a stretch-running sprinter or miler. He'll make the third start of the form cycle for Team Pletcher, but is riding a seven-race losing streak.
#2 SCHOOLYARD DREAMS made premature moves in both the Sam F. Davis and Tampa Bay Derby, but failed to drop the hammer on his opponents on both occasions. He finished ahead of Super Saver in the latter race, and reportedly was sick before his disappointing run in the Wood Memorial. He shows some fast works leading up to this race and has the tactical speed to work out a good ground-saving, pace-tracking trip. Note that he hasn't gained ground from the stretch call to the wire in his last three races.

#3 PLEASANT PRINCE was nosed by subsequent Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box in the Florida Derby, but a lack of graded earnings forced his connections to enter in both the Blue Grass and the Derby Trial in search of a spot in the Louisville starting gate. He didn't run especially well in either race and the late-runner may be past his best form right now. He'll need a strong pace up front to adequately setup his kick.
#4 NORTHERN GIANT ran admirably in the Risen Star on dirt and the Lane's End on polytrack, but he didn't do much against Super Saver in the Arkansas Derby. He needs to run the fastest race of his career if he is to prove the spoiler for Mr. Lukas.

#6 JACKSON BEND is a courageous little fellow, but the distance may be a bit out of his scope. He rarely runs a bad one and can be close to the pace under Mike Smith. Still, I'm guessing he'll be better at distances up to 1 1/16 miles.

Lookin At Lucky was eliminated during the first quarter-mile of the Kentucky Derby. That was one of the big stories following the race so expect Lookin At Lucky to be hammered by "wiseguy" trip handicappers. He's simply a good horse as evidenced by his championship season at two and he obviously has plenty of excuses for his last two races. I'm just not sure I want to take a trouble-prone colt at a short price.

#9 CARACORTADO is the plucky, rags-to-riches story of the group. Offered for $40,000 in his career debut in a half-mile dash at Fairplex, he rolled off five in a row to begin his career including the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis over Santa Anita's Pro-Ride surface. He did receive a perfect trip that day to beat inferior competition, and he failed to make an impact in his subsequent two races. He's had some minor physical issues since the Santa Anita Derby so he gives me mostly mixed emotions.

#11 FIRST DUDE had tough trips in both the Florida Derby and Blue Grass, but he's lost ground in the stretch of his three races against winners. His tactical speed should prove an asset in this spot, but he'll have to improve on his 90 Beyer top to take these down.

Here are my HG plays:

$50 Exacta - Super Saver over Dublin (8-12)
$25 Exacta - Super Saver over Yawanna Twist (8-5)
$25 Exacta - Super Saver over Paddy O'Prado (8-10)

**StarDust Bum** · 05-15-2010, 12:10 PM

Here is a email i recieved from a Buddy of mine who's into his horses....he placed in the top 10 in the world series of horse racing handicapping for the year......a couple of years ago...

Trip to Ky for the Derby had mixed results. Had the winner and 2nd in the Oaks w/Blind luck and Evening Jewel. Also had the Derby wheeled to Blind Luck, but that wager cost 40 and the double to Super Saver paid 56, beers at the Derby were 8 bucks no profit there. In the derby, Awsome Act my pick was injured and ran 19th. Sydney's Candy broke with Convayance and was on the lead, but after fractions of 22 &3, 46 &1 and 110 &3 It was evident he would not be around when the real running started.
But that's history...

40% chance of rain today in Baltimore and 10% Saturday, track should be fast or at least good. Not much pace in this race. On paper, you wont find any derby fractions from this bunch. So who is going to the front. Proably Caracortado who missed the derby, he has a punchers chance if they let him go out with slow fractions, but it's his 1st race off the poly track and on dirt, he has Paul Adkinson up, and the gelding has never ran this far. He may hang on for a piece. Unfortunaltly it looks like Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky stalking moderate fractions w/Paddy O'Prado making a big run from the back. That's the favorite and 2 more logical contenders. So dont see a lot of value in the race. I like Lookin at Lucky to win he's had 3 bad trips in a row, still ran 6th in the derby after getting slammed out of the 1 hole. Baffert changed jocks to Martin Garcia and with a clean trip believe he will be right there. Paddy O'prado got stopped cold at the top of the lane and after he steadied he rallied and got caught at the wire for 2nd and ran 3rd. Ya gotta leave Super Saver in the mix, maybe he is the real deal. The only bomber I have is Pleasent Prince. This is a Wesley Ward horse, he ran 2nd to Ice Box(2nd in the derby) in the Fla Derby. HIs next 2 preps were in the slop and then on Polytrack,Ward likes this horse, but he was quoted as saying the horse hated the poly track in his last race at Keeneland. When he knew he couldnt win Juliean Leporeaux saved his horse to fight another day. He could be sleeper w/a morning line of 20-1. His final prep was a speedy 59 flat for 5 furlongs.

Play some exacta's and tri's. Using Looking at Lucky and Paddy O'prado on top to, Super Saver, Pleasent Prince, and the fresh Caracortado behind them.

Good Luck

Here is what am going with:

# 3 W P S

# 3, # 7 Exacta, Trifecta /3-7-8-10-12 /3-7-8-10-12

**StarDust Bum** · 05-15-2010, 12:59 PM

Saturday's Fox Tips

**Astros at Giants**

--Most betting shops are listing San Francisco (18-15, +79) as a minus-200 favorite with a total of 6 ½ ‘under’ (minus-115). Gamblers can take the Giants on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a plus-110 return (risk $100 to win $110).

--Houston (13-21, -321) has won four in a row and is coming off a shocking three-game sweep of the Cardinals in St. Louis. The Astros hooked up their backers with the following payouts as underdogs against the Cards: +200, +160 and +260. That’s more than six units of profit.

--Bruce Bochy’s club went into Friday’s series opener against Houston with a 10-8 home record. The Giants were 3 ½ games back of the National League West leaders, the San Diego Padres.

--Even after dealing broom treatment to St. Louis, the Astros are still in the NL Central cellar, 6 ½ games back of the first-place Cards.

--Roy Oswalt (2-4 2.63) has been a hard-luck pitcher so far this season. The hard-throwing righty has an excellent 2.86 ERA in his last three starts, yet zero wins to show for it. Oswalt owns a 5-6 record and 3.76 ERA in 16 lifetime starts against San Francisco.

--Tim Lincecum (4-0, 1.86) will get the ball for the Giants, hence the miniscule total for this contest. Lincecum, a right-hander with a 44-17 record and 2.86 career ERA, threw seven scoreless innings against Houston earlier this season. He has a 3-0 record and 1.37 ERA in six lifetime starts against the Astros.

--The ‘under’ is an MLB-best 21-11 overall for Houston, 8-3 in its road assignments.

--The ‘under’ is 18-12 overall for the Giants and has been especially prevalent in their home games with a 12-4 ledger.

--This game will come off the board at 4:10 p.m. Eastern with FOX providing television coverage.

**Mariners at Rays**

--Most books are listing Tampa Bay (24-10, +893) as an expensive minus-210 favorite with a total of 8 ½ ‘under’ (minus-115). Bettors can take the Rays on the run line and just risk a minus-120 price.

--Seattle (13-21, -984) was hoping to be a serious contender in the AL West after acquiring new ace pitcher Cliff Lee. However, Lee missed all of April and is just now starting to make an impact. Meanwhile, Ken Griffey Jr. and others in the lineup have not produced, leaving the Mariners in the division’s cellar, trailing the loop-leading Rangers by 6 ½ games going into Friday’s play.

--James Shields (4-1, 3.13) will take the mound Saturday for his eighth start of the season. The right-hander has already beaten the Mariners this year, working eight innings and giving up just two earned runs. Shields walked none and struck out 10 Seattle batters. In seven career starts against the M’s, Shields is 3-2 with a 2.32 ERA.

--Jason Vargas (3-2, 3.00) picked up a win after working 7 1/3 scorless innings in his last start. The lefty is 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA in seven-plus career innings against Tampa Bay.

--Tampa Bay has feasted on left-handed pitching, going 10-5 in 15 games against lefty starters. The Rays have a 9-6 record at home.

--The M’s have seen the ‘under’ go 19-16 overall, 8-7 in their road games. They had a miserable 5-11 road record going into Friday’s series opener.

--Totals have been a wash overall for the Rays (16-16), but they have watched the ‘over’ go 8-7 in their home outings.

--FOX will have the telecast at 4:10 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--A pair of lefties will take the mound at Yankee Stadium on Saturday for a 1:05 p.m. Eastern start. Minnesota’s Francisco Liriano is coming off his first loss of the season, but he’s still sporting a 4-1 record and 2.36 ERA through six outings, clearly returning to the form he demonstrated his rookie year before developing elbow problems. Andy Pettitte will get the ball for Bronx Bombers, looking to improve on his 4-0 record and 2.08 ERA.

--The Twins are 8-2 in 10 games against left-handed starters, while the Yankees are just 7-6 versus southpaws.

--The ‘over’ is an MLB-best 24-12 for the D-backs and was 15-4 in their road games before Friday’s series opener at Atlanta.

--With Friday’s postponement in Denver, Colorado and Washington will play a day-night doubleheader on Saturday. The first game of the twin bill will come off the board at 2:10 p.m. Eastern.

Announcement

The Bum's Saturday's Best Bets MLB-WNBA-Preakness Pick !

The Bum's Saturday's Best Bets MLB-WNBA-Preakness Pick !

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