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**StarDust Bum** · 05-14-2010, 06:16 PM

Philadelphia Flyers seeking playoff liberty

It doesn’t come up often in sports, but when it does it sends shockwaves thru the participating cities and ends up catching the attention of those following the sport from coast to coast. The Philadelphia hockey franchise and Boston Bruins have enjoyed many memorable meetings decades ago but this Game 7 could surpass all of those depending on the outcome. Even so, as this series heads to nerve-wracking deciding contest, it has already left a mark.

The History

One team wants to embrace history the other wants nothing to do with. Philadelphia has comeback from 3-0 series deficit to even up this Eastern semi-final confrontation. Philadelphia will attempt to become the third NHL team to win a series after losing its first three games Friday night in Boston. The other two successful teams were the 1975 New York Islanders and the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs.

The Flyers are the fifth different team to force such an occurrence (The Islanders did it twice) and the originally trailing team is 2-3 all time.

This year was the 17th time Boston has taken a 3-0 lead in a series and this will be the second time in their history (1939 they beat the New York Rangers) they will be playing seventh game.

What Philly changed

Flyers coach Peter Laviolette decided to attack the Bruins differently after falling behind 3-0 in the series and why not, what was there to lose at the time.

Philadelphia became more aggressive when Boston reached the blue line on offense and was aggressive in stick-checks, getting into passing lanes and giving total effort in blocking shots. Though it didn’t work at first in 5-4 overtime win in Game 4, the results the last two games has Boston putting the puck in the net once the last two contests on 54 shots.

With goaltender Michael Leighton coerced into action because of injury to Brian Boucher, the Flyers players blocked 30 shots plus the 30 Leighton stopped in Game 6’s 2-1 triumph. Philadelphia has won eight of last 11 with a day between games.

Where Boston went wrong

After playing almost flawlessly, Bruins players are hurting their own team taking penalties that lack discipline. Boston has been called for 13 penalties the last two games compared to Philly’s six and the Flyers are 2-0 in scoring in man advantage situations.

“We have to do a better job at being disciplined,” said Boston forward Milan Lucic. “They’re doing a good job with that, so we have to do an even better job than them. It’s important. It sucks for me in the second when we take a bunch of penalties in a row and I’m sitting on the bench for the last six minutes. It gets guys sitting around for a bit who don’t penalty kill. We have to do a better job as a team not taking penalties.”

It’s starting to look like the losses of Marcus Strum and David Krejci in this series are taking their toll for squad that wasn’t good offensively to begin with. Though Boston has kept up a good volume of shots on goal, the degree of difficulty for the goaltender has been relatively simple. The Bruins need a player or two to manufacture a goal for team that is 8-1 playing into triple revenge.

What the numbers say

Boston is a -125 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com with total of Ov5. The Bruins have taken seven of eight as home faves and have issues to deal with.

“I’m sure the pressure is mounting even more,” the Flyers Daniel Briere said. Boston is 1-8 at home after two or more defeats and 16-6-6 UNDER as a favorite of -110 to -150.

Philadelphia has all the momentum and conviction they are team of destiny, even if they are 3-9 as road underdogs. “Now that we’re here and now that we’ve climbed all the way back in this series, we want it too,” Briere said. “We have to realize that the last game will be the toughest to leave with.” The Flyers are 7-1 as visitors after a home win by a single goal.

This series finale has a 7:00 Eastern start on VERSUS with Philly 6-2-1 UNDER as postseason dogs. The winner will have home ice advantage in the East Finals against Montreal.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-14-2010, 06:17 PM

Phillies underdogs at bumbling Brewers

Philadelphia Phillies starter Jamie Moyer continues to amaze with his consistency. That has not been the case for the Milwaukee Brewers. Moyer looks to build on one of the best starts of his 24-year career when the Phillies try to extend the Brewers’ struggles at Miller Park on Friday night.

Moyer (4-2, 4.38 ERA, 1.077 WHIP) was scheduled to start the nightcap of a doubleheader at Colorado on Wednesday, but that contest was postponed due to rain and snow. Philadelphia (20-13, +2 units) decided to keep its rotation intact, giving Moyer his first start in a week in the opener of this series.

Moyer, 47, became the oldest player in major league history to throw a shutout his last time out, pitching a two-hitter in a 7-0 win over Atlanta last Friday. The left-hander earned his 262nd victory.

“Jamie carved us tonight,” Braves third baseman Chipper Jones said. “The guy is 87 years old and he’s still pitching for a reason. He stays off the barrel. He changes speeds, changes the game plan and keeps you guessing.”

Moyer is 9-5 with a 3.81 ERA in 18 starts against Milwaukee, and his teams have gone 9-1 in his last 10 starts versus the Brewers and is 28-13 in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game since 1997. (Team's Record)

He’ll face a Milwaukee team among the NL leaders with a .272 batting average and 5.5 runs per game. The Brewers (15-19, -5.7), though, scored seven times while getting swept in three games by Atlanta, which won the series finale 9-2 on Wednesday. Milwaukee is one of four teams since 1900 to have scored 17 or more runs three times, and get shut out three times, within a 30-game stretch.

“It’s extremely weird,” outfielder Ryan Braun said. “I don’t think there’s any rhyme or reason for it right now. I don’t think there’s really any logical explanation. … I wish we can say ‘Let’s only score five today and five tomorrow,’ but it just doesn’t work that way.” The Brew Crew is 6-15 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss by six runs or more.

Braun missed the last two games after getting hit on the elbow by a pitch, but is expected to return Friday. He has batted .415 with three home runs and eight RBIs in nine career home games against the Phillies and is 6 for 10 with two homers versus Moyer.

With a league-worst 4-11 (-9.8 units) home record, the Brewers could use that kind of production against the two-time defending NL champs.

“I don’t think anybody can explain why we’re having a tough time getting wins at home,” said third baseman Casey McGehee, batting .526 with two homers and nine RBIs in the last five games. ” We have to figure out something to do, recharge the batteries (on an off-day Thursday) because we’ve got Philly coming in, and it’s not going to get any easier.”

After his bullpen gave up 17 runs and walked seven against the Braves, Brewers manager Ken Macha is looking for an extended outing from Randy Wolf (3-2, 3.95, 1.500). The veteran left-hander, who went 69-60 with a 4.21 ERA for Phillies from 1999-2006, gave up three runs in six innings to beat Arizona 17-3 on Saturday.

Ryan Howard, 1 for 9 with four strikeouts versus Wolf, went 8 for 18 with a homer and seven RBIs as Philadelphia and Milwaukee split four games at Miller Park from Sept. 24-27.

Sportsbook.com has the Phillies as +110 ML road underdogs with total Ov9 and they are 22-13 as +100 to +150 dogs. The Phillies are 14-3 OVER in traveling grays against mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse. Milwaukee is 0-6 in the valley as a -150 or less favorite this season and needs Wolf to continue is mastery of May where he is 19-4 in home games this month. (Team's Record) The Brewers are 12-3 OVER at home vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage of .340 or better the last two years.

This contest is on MLB-TV and available in local markets starting at 8:10 Eastern.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-14-2010, 06:18 PM

MLB Series Betting- L.A. Dodgers at San Diego

Of the various Major League baseball series that had the possibility of being intriguing in the middle of May, this would not have been one of them before the season started. But much like “The little engine that could”, the San Diego Padres (+12.3 units) have the best record in the National League at 22-12 and also have the fattest lead of any division leaders at 3.5 games after sweeping San Francisco at their yard.

Last season a messy divorce between owner John Moores and his wife Becky left the Padres in limbo and the organization was cut to barest of minimums, except for the face of the franchise Adrian Gonzalez. Last year’s rag-a-muffin bunch won 75 games somehow, however most baseball experts considered that a fluke and oddsmakers put a cap of 71 wins on San Diego for 2010 with its new ownership that lacks deep pockets.

What has caused the Pads to be so good this season, tremendous pitching. San Diego leads the NL in ERA at 2.61, as they concede the lowest batting average at .221 and lowest on-base percentage at .291. Those numbers improve at spacious PETCO Park, where the Padres allow a mere 2.4 runs per game, which leads to 11-5 record.

Offensively, San Diego was last in most major categories a season ago and while this group doesn’t remind many of Cincinnati’s “Big Red Machine” of 1970’s, they are at least adequate at 4.3 RPG.

In the series opener, former Dodger John Garland (4-2, 1.71 ERA) will start for the Padres. “Garland has done a heck of a job,” Los Angeles manager Joe Torre told the Dodgers’ official website. “He’s a good guy to settle down a young staff. He’s simple: ‘Just give me the ball.’”

With the L.A. offense scoring 5.3 RPG, San Diego is 9-1 vs. NL teams scoring 5.3 or more runs game on the year and is a -140 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com with total Ov7.5. Garland last pitched on Saturday and is 11-1 UNDER when working on five or six days rest over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The Dodgers will give the ball to Ramon Ortiz (1-1, 5.16) who is making his first start since May, 26, 2007 after 14 relief appearances this season having spent 2008 in Japan and 2009 in Triple-A.

“It’s been a long time, almost two years,” Ortiz said. “I’m a very positive guy. I knew I could do this, being back in the big leagues.”

Game 1 Edge: San Diego
While much of the state of California wants to boycott Arizona, don’t count the Dodgers (-5.7) among them, after sweeping the Diamondbacks into downtown Phoenix, giving them four straight wins and six of seven to square up their record at 17-17. Los Angeles ownership is going thru the same thing San Diego did as Frank and Jamie McCourt are involved in bitter divorce proceedings which includes who actually owns the team.

Though the Dodgers are second in the league in runs scored, they have a team ERA of 4.68, which is 12th in the senior circuit, very un-Dodger like. Because of the divorce, GM Ned Colletti is unable to make any moves that might improve their pitching and is scrambling for five reliable starters and an inconsistent bullpen.

One of the more dependable starters has been Clayton Kershaw (2-2, 3.96) who once again followed up with brilliance off a stinker. He threw just 1 1/3 innings against Milwaukee in allowing seven runs and followed that up with eight shutout innings on two hits and nine strikeouts against Colorado his last time out. The Dodgers are 8-2 when the young lefty pitches the second game of a series and are 27-11 on Saturday’s.

Kevin Correia (4-2, 3.97) takes the ball for the Friars, who have averaged 9.2 runs in his six starts. Correia in fact is 20-0 when his team totals four or more runs in his career. San Diego is 5-0 when he the middle game starting pitcher and they are perfect 7-0 against left-handed opposing hurlers since Apr. 20. Correia will pitch with heavy heart, since his brother was tragically killed in hiking accident last week.

Game 2 Edge: Los Angeles

At press time, Wade LeBlanc (2-0, 1.61) is not officially listed as the starting pitcher for the Padres, though it is his turn in the rotation. The easy tossing port-sider finished last season outstanding and has continued into this year. LeBlanc’s fastball seldom hits 90 MPH, but his late-breaking curveball and devastating change-up causes a large number of ugly swings. This will be the only day game in the series and if he starts as presumed, LeBlanc has 0.82 ERA in two daytime contests.

With L.A.’s lack of maneuverability, the one pitcher Torre needed was Chad Billingsley (3-2, 4.82) who has not had command most of the season. Off last year’s second half fade, Torre has a quick hook for Billingsley, who has yet to pitch past six innings this season for a club that needs extended outings to protect what has been mediocre bullpen work. The right-hander is 8-4 with a 2.71 ERA in his career against the Padres, 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA at PETCO Park.

Game 3 Edge: San Diego

This I-5 series will be surrounded by ample excitement with Saturday’s conflict a sell-out and the other two contests either will be or very close to. This will be a good test for both clubs still early in the 2010 campaign as a gauge to where they are in the division. As long as San Diego doesn’t get too excited, their superior pitching should be enough to capture the series.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-14-2010, 06:19 PM

Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 5/14-5/16

A check of the standings in each league after a month a half reveals some disturbing things, most notably a lack of parity in the American League and a lack of any true quality in the National. Eight of the 14 teams in the junior circuit find themselves 5.0 games or more back already, with Tampa Bay, New York, and Minnesota setting the pace. In the N.L., the best team at this point, the Padres, is scoring just 4.3 runs per game. Of course, a lot can change between now and October, starting with this weekend’s action. Let’s take a look at what’s happening in each league over the next three days and cite a Top ******* Power Trend from each of the 15 series’ that you can put to use.

In the junior circuit, the showcase series puts the Twins in New York for a 3-game set with the Yankees. Trips to the Big Apple have been anything but enjoyable for Minnesota over the last two years as they are 0-9 in that span. Overall, the Yankees have taken 16 of 20 games from the Twins. The visitors are playing well of late though and have caught the Yankees at 22-12, as the latter have dropped four of their last five games. Elsewhere, the East leading Rays will welcome struggling Seattle to town. Since owning the West lead on April 21st, the Mariners are just 4-14. Finally, in Toronto, the Blue Jays host the Rangers, who have moved to the top of the West by winning six of their last seven games. Three of those wins by were a single run as they are winning with both clutch hitting and timely pitching.

The N.L. slate features an intriguing battle out west between Los Angeles and San Diego from Petco Park. The Padres lead the division with a 22-12 mark but have begun to take notice of the Dodgers, who have won their last four games headed into Friday’s series opener. L.A. has scored 28 runs in its 4-game winning streak but will be hard pressed to put up that kind of production against a Padres team that is allowing 3.0 runs per game on the season, easily best in baseball. The series in Cincinnati this weekend between the Cardinals and Reds is also noteworthy, as the teams are separated by just a half game at the top of the Central standings headed into the set. The Reds have won a league high 5-straight games while St. Louis has dropped three in a row and can take first place in the division for the first time in a long time with a series win. For good measure, Cincy boasts a 25-9 record at home in the month of May over the last three season. Finally, in Colorado, the Rockies will be hosting the Nationals, who we must put a shout out to, as Thursday’s 14-6 win put Washington 5-games over .500, despite the fact that they are being outscored by 0.2 runs per game.

Now, here is a look at some of the Top ******* Power Trends that you’ll want to put to use as you handicap all of this weekend’s action:

PITTSBURGH at CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 3-11 (-12.8 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 2.9, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 3*)

ST LOUIS at CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 10-3 (+7.8 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 5.0, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)

NY METS at FLORIDA
FLORIDA is 19-29 (-16.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.2, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)

ARIZONA at ATLANTA
ARIZONA is 5-15 (-10.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was ARIZONA 4.3, OPPONENT 6.6 - (Rating = 1*)

PHILADELPHIA at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 28-18 (+14.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.9, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)

WASHINGTON at COLORADO
WASHINGTON is 11-4 (+12.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 5.4, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*)

LA DODGERS at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 16-6 (+10.8 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.9, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 2*)

HOUSTON at SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-6 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.3, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 1*)

CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 8-23 (-16.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.7, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)

TEXAS at TORONTO
TORONTO is 25-49 (-26.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 4.4, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)

BOSTON at DETROIT
BOSTON is 33-53 (-21.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 4.3, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)

MINNESOTA at NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 35-7 (+21.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.8, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*)

SEATTLE at TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 18-6 (+9.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.2, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 1*)

CHI WHITE SOX at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 4-19 (-13.3 Units) against the money line vs. excellent speed teams - averaging 1 or more SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 3.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)

OAKLAND at LA ANGELS
OAKLAND is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) vs. a very bad bullpen whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 2.6, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)

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