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**StarDust Bum** · 05-12-2010, 11:37 PM

The King about to be overthrown

LeBron James is supposed to be the best player in the NBA and probably is, but he hasn’t been close to being the best player in this series. King James showed a side of personality not seen often after he gave a lame effort like his teammates in Game 5 debacle.

After losing 120-88 as seven-point home favorites, James had this to say about his 15-point showing.

"I spoil a lot of people with my play," James said. "When you have a bad game here or there, you've had three bad games in a seven-year career, then it's easy to point that out. So you got to be better.

I put a lot of pressure on myself to be out there and be the best player on the court, and when I'm not I feel bad for myself because I'm not going out there and doing the things I can do. But I don't hang my head low or make any excuses about anything that may be going on, because that's not the type of player or person I am."

It’s a bit presumptuous for James to say he’s had three lousy games in his career, but what basketball fans and those rooting for the Cavaliers want to know, where is the burning desire?

Is the elbow a much bigger issue? Does he find the lack proficiency from his teammates appalling? Does he not trust his coach in being knowledgeable to lead this club? Has he mentally checked out thinking about playing somewhere else?

Cleveland is 24-7-1 ATS off a defeat by 10 or more points, but this was one for the record books. No NBA with a regular season win percentage of .700 or higher had ever lost a home playoff game by 30 or more points. (Thanks Elias Sports)

What can the Cavaliers do to send this to Game 7? Having Mike Brown coach his players might help.

For starters if Antwan Jamison is going to not provide points on offense, get him off the floor, he’s a defensive liability. J.J. Hickson was valuable in the latter part of the season; use his intensity and defense to at least do something on one end of the floor.

Brown has to find an answer for Shaq and Zydrunas Ilgauskas to rotate better on weakside passes by Boston, who is feasting in the paint with layups or short jump shots.

Mo Williams either decides to play or should sit. He has yet to guard Rajon Rondo and his offensive production is nil.

Lastly, LeBron has to determine what he wants. His elbow is unquestionably bothering him and he doesn’t trust his own jump shot, passing up at least seven wide open looks he had Tuesday night. But where is the explosiveness to the rim?

Yes, Boston has had a few nice wrinkles to limit James, but does the game’s best player settle for idle dribbles and pass to teammate or use his brute force like in the past and blow to the cup and score or find Cavs teammate standing by himself with wide open look at the bucket with collapsing defense? Interesting to note Cleveland is 2-9 ATS in last 11 outings against teams with winning record.

Boston has outplayed and outhustled its younger opponent and is 7-3 ATS in the postseason. The Celtics don’t want to take any chances.

"We cannot come back here," Kevin Garnett said. "We have to think this is our Game 7 coming up and we cannot afford to have the best team in the league have a Game 7 on their floor. Just not possible."

Bookmaker.com has Boston as one-point favorites, as they go for their second three game winning streak in the playoffs. The C’s are 2-10 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more this season and 17-4 UNDER after a huge blowout victory by 30 or more. Cleveland has its back against the proverbial wall and is 2-5 ATS in last seven as road underdogs and is 16-5 OVER revenging a home massacre loss of 20 points or more.

The biggest deciding factor is LeBron’s mental state. This contest is being played with one day between games and James is shooting 36.1 percent on his meager total of 47 shot attempts, including 0-13 beyond the arc in this East semi-final with less than 48 hours between contests. In the two games Cleveland has won and covered, James is shooting 56.5 percent on 46 shots with two or more days in between outings. The Cavs are 0-6 ATS with one day of rest since April 11.

Game 6 is on ESPN at 8:00 Eastern and if Cleveland can force one more game, they will have two days off between conflicts.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-12-2010, 11:39 PM

Thursday Matinees

The Thursday baseball card involves the top four pitchers in the American League Cy Young voting from last season taking the mound. Two of the pitchers are on below .500 teams and try to jump-start struggling seasons. The other two hurlers get together at Comerica Park as New York and Detroit wrap up a four-game set. We'll start in the Beltway with a pair of last-place teams sending out their aces.

Mariners at Orioles - 12:35 PM EST

This isn't exactly the matchup of the day, but it does showcase both Seattle and Baltimore's aces getting together at Camden Yards. Felix Hernandez tries to snap a personal three-game skid, while Kevin Millwood looks for his first victory this season.

King Felix (2-3, 4.30 ERA) pitched splendid in his first four starts, allowing nine earned runs as Seattle went 4-0. The last three outings have quickly fallen apart at the seams, as Hernandez has given up 14 earned runs, while not lasting past the fifth inning in either of the last two trips to the mound. Each of Hernandez's previous five starts against the Orioles has finished 'under' the total, including a complete-game victory at Safeco Field over Baltimore on April 21.

Millwood (0-4, 3.26 ERA) has been the victim of horrific run support with the Orioles averaging 2.1 runs/game in his seven starts. Coincidentally, the two wins Baltimore has during Millwood's starts have come at home against the Yankees and Red Sox, both one-run victories. Millwood hasn't pitched too badly in his first season with the Orioles, but the veteran has struggled against the Mariners in his career. Seattle has beaten Millwood's teams (Texas and Baltimore) in eight of the last nine meetings dating back to 2007, even though seven of those games were played at Safeco Field.

The Mariners have won nine of the last 12 against the Orioles, including three straight at Camden Yards. With Baltimore's problems at the plate recently, the 'under' has cashed in seven of the previous nine games, as the O's have scored two runs or less six times in this stretch.

Yankees at Tigers - 1:05 PM EST

Detroit looks to capture this series with a matinee victory over New York when each team trots out its best hurlers. CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander fell shy of the AL Cy Young award last season, but both teams are 5-2 in their respective ace's starts this season.

Sabathia (4-1, 3.04 ERA) failed to pick up the victory in his last start against the Red Sox, finishing one out shy of qualifying for the win by going 4.2 innings in a 14-3 pounding of Boston. The Bombers are 3-1 in Sabathia's four starts as a road favorite this season, while the southpaw has delivered quality starts in five of seven outings (both non-quality ones came against Boston). The Yankees split Sabathia's two outings against the Tigers last season, with a 4-2 loss coming at Comerica Park last April.

The winning pitcher in that contest was Verlander (3-2, 4.50 ERA), who pitched seven scoreless innings to out-duel Sabathia and the Yanks. The Tigers are 4-0 in Verlander's starts during the day, despite an ERA of 5.18. Verlander is coming off consecutive victories over the Angels and Indians in which the righty allowed two earned runs and struck out 16.

Detroit owns a stellar 11-5 mark during the day this season, including a 7-2 ledger in home matinees. The Yankees are a solid 9-4 under the sun, while going 9-4 to the 'over,' and hitting five straight 'overs' in the daytime.

Athletics at Rangers - 2:05 PM EST

Both these AL West rivals are surprisingly sitting above .500 as we hit the middle of May, with Oakland trying to capitalize off the momentum of Dallas Braden's perfect game on Sunday. The A's have suddenly won five of six, including three of those wins over the Rangers.

Ben Sheets (2-3, 6.38 ERA) has been downright awful on the road, going 0-2 in three away starts with an ERA of 13.50. The last two outings on the highway clearly point to Sheets' bloated ERA thanks to him giving up 19 hits and 17 earned runs in just ten innings of work. Oakland is 2-5 in Sheets' seven starts, while the ex-Brewer has lasted into the seventh inning only once, coming in a victory over the Rays in his last outing.

The Rangers send out former closer C.J. Wilson (3-1, 1.51 ERA), who is coming off a complete-game victory over the Royals in his last start. The southpaw leads the AL in ERA, while posting the fourth-most innings for starters that have made six starts (41.2 IP). The 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in Wilson's six starts, with the opposition scoring a total of four runs in his last four outings.

Oakland is a sterling 8-1 in Game 3's this season, while Texas is 14-9 against right-handed starting pitchers and 9-4 at home in this spot. The A's are on a 5-2 'under' run following Tuesday's high-scoring affair, as Oakland has scored more than five runs just twice in the last 12 games.

Indians at Royals - 2:10 PM EST

Zack Greinke is less than a year removed from winning the AL Cy Young Award, as the Royals' ace has failed to pick up a single victory through seven starts this season. Kansas City wraps up its series with Cleveland as the Royals go for only their third win in the month of May.

Greinke (0-4, 2.51 ERA) has pitched well lately, but just isn't receiving the right run support with the Royals tallying just three runs in his last three starts. The righty is listed as a favorite for just the third time in eight outings, with the Royals' bullpen blowing his other two starts as home 'chalk' against the Tigers and Mariners. Greinke struck out 15 the last time he saw the Tribe at home on August 25, 2009, with the Royals cruising to a 6-2 victory.

David Huff (1-4, 4.60 ERA) has failed to deliver a quality outing in each of his last three trips to the mound, all Cleveland losses. The southpaw has given up 25 hits and 13 earned runs in this stretch, including six homers. Huff beat the Royals twice last season, including a 4-2 victory at Kauffman Stadium last August as a short underdog.

The Royals are hitting .310 at home against lefties, but just .198 the last ten games versus southpaw pitching. Cleveland has dropped four consecutive road series since taking two of three at Chicago to start the season.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-12-2010, 11:41 PM

Game 6, Cavs at Celtics

In the 1985 NBA Finals, the Boston Celtics destroyed the L.A. Lakers 148-114 on Memorial Day in what many writers dubbed the blowout as the “Memorial Day Massacre” or “Boston Massacre.”
Fast forward 25 years and it seems like the Celtics haven’t missed a beat, especially when you look at what they did to Cleveland on Tuesday. Boston embarrassed the Cavaliers with a 32-point (120-88) road victory, which was the worst-ever playoff loss by Cleveland. Doc Rivers team didn’t need the 7 ½-points given by the oddsmakers, but they did help money-line backers at a 3/1 (Bet $100 to win $300) price.

The Celtics are now one win away from reaching the Eastern Conference Finals for the second time in three years. Boston wasn’t given much of a chance by the oddsmakers or a lot of pundits, including this writer. The Cavaliers were installed as minus-500 favorites (Bet $500 to win $100) in the best-of-seven series and they looked like every bit the part after dismantling Boston 124-95 in Game 3 on the road.

Cleveland owned a solid 2-1 lead after the win and they had a great opportunity to go up 3-1 but the team choked at the end of Game 4’s 97-87 loss. The Cavs trailed 86-84 with a little over four minutes left on the clock before getting outscored 11-3 to close the game.

The Cavs shot 40 percent from the field in the double-digit road loss and that offensive effort carried over to Tuesday’s home setback. Cleveland shot 41 percent in Game 5, compared to a blistering 55 percent from Boston. All five starters for the Celtics were in double figures, led by Ray Allen’s 26 points, 18 coming from 3-point land. Glen Davis also kept the momentum going all night with a big 15 points off the bench as well.

While the Celtics played great, all the talk in the Cavs’ loss was focused on LeBron James. The two-time league MVP had one of the worst outings of his career, finishing with 15 points on 3-of-14 shooting. Some critics said he was disinterested, while others tried to say he was tired. Either way, James is up against the wall and Cleveland fans might have seen him play his last home game in a Cavs jersey.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers has always believed that the NBA is a team game and Boston is proving that notion again in this year's playoffs. He explained, “The Cavs are proving that teams need supporting casts to be successful in the playoffs, as the Lakers and Magic are looking solid past their respective stars. The Big Three for Boston picked it up in the Game 5 victory, and now you wonder if the Cavs can go back to Beantown and avoid elimination.”

“The clock is ticking on LeBron in Cleveland and I believe its NBA Finals or bust for this team. Assuming the Cavs lose to the Celtics or Magic, LeBron is out of Cleveland. Now it just depends on what his ultimate goals are. If he wants to be on a great regular season team and not win a title, he can stay in Cleveland. If he wants the enormous spotlight of the Big Apple and doesn’t care about a title, he’ll be a member of the Knicks. But, if a title run is on his radar, he’ll join Dwyane Wade in Miami to give himself a great chance at winning a championship.”

Before you start handicapping the Magic-Celtics series, be aware that Boston was in the same exact position last season, when they led Orlando 3-2 in the conference semis. The Magic staved off elimination in Game 6 before stunning the locals at TD Garden in Game 7 with a 19-point (101-82) win to advance.

The oddsmakers had Boston tabbed as a 2 ½-point favorite in the finale against Orlando and it’s favored by one-point over Cleveland in Game 6. The road team has covered three of the first five in this series and the Celtics had a chance to cover in their Game 1 loss (93-101) as 7 ½-point pups.

“One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: never lay points against No.1 seeds. That’s because inferior teams are just 15-25-1 ATS when laying points into No. 1 seeds since 1996. Worse, if the No. 1 seed is off a SU and ATS loss (Game 5), lower seeded favorites are just 3-10 ATS. And if the lower seeded favorite beat the top seed and covered the spread by nine or more points, they dip to 1-10 ATS (Game 5).”

The total on Game 6 has spiked up to 196, after watching the first five games ranged from 191 to 193. Even though the there was 208 points posted in Game 5, keep in mind that Boston put up 30 points in the third and 40 in the fourth. They couldn’t miss and Cleveland didn’t care to guard them when the game was out of hand. All four totals in the regular season went ‘over’ between the pair and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 through the first five games in this series but the ‘over’ and ‘under’ has alternated in the best-of-seven, which means you could see an ‘under’ ticket on Thursday. Also, don’t forget that at least one team was held under 95 points or less in all five games so you’re not getting clear-cut shootouts here. More like lopsided affairs that tend to watch the clock tick, tick and tick more.

ESPN will provide national coverage of tonight’s battle, which is set to tip at 8:05 p.m. EDT.

If necessary, Game 7 will be played at Cleveland on Sunday. If the Celtics win tonight, it’s very possible that they will play Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals at Orlando instead of the decisive battle from Ohio.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-12-2010, 11:42 PM

Celtics looks to close

The Numbers
Boston is a one-point favorite with the total set at 196. Boston was favored in its first home game in Game Three but rolled into the underdog in Game 4. Thursday’s total is the highest seen so far this series.

Celtics Edge

With the upset win in Cleveland, Boston put itself in the driver’s seat. Of the Game 5 winners in the history of the playoffs that took a 3-2 advantage, 83 percent of those teams have gone on to win the series.

The Celtics have done their part in keeping up with this. Boston is 31-1 in playoff series when leading three games to two and on the other side, since the franchise's inception, the Cavaliers have been on the short end of a 3-2 lead in a playoff series four times and all four series ended with the Cavaliers being ousted.

The problem for Boston is that the one series loss took place last season. The Celtics were in a similar situation as they were up 3-2 against Orlando and they had the luxury of knowing a potential Game 7 would be at home. They lost Game 6 in Orlando and then were walloped in Game 7 by 19 points.

Last Game at the Q?

In one of the biggest games of the season, LeBron James put up arguably one of his smallest efforts. If the Cavaliers cannot win on the road and extend the series one more game, did LeBron play his last ever home game in Cleveland?

Champions step up when needed and James did not do that when his team needed him the most. He did not score a field goal until midway through the third quarter and looked very disinterested at times. He did nothing on defense and he has forced his team to win again on the road to avoid their season ending sooner than expected.

“I spoil a lot of people with my play,” James said after the game. “When you have a bad game here or there, you've had three bad games in a seven-year career, then it's easy to point that out.” He was referring to the countless boos that he was hit with when the game ended and that could surely sway his decision of whether to stay or go come July 1.

We should expect to see a bounceback effort in Game 6 but we thought the same in Game 5 and that obviously did not happen.

Boston Peaking

The Celtics ended the regular season on a 3-7 run and momentum was clearly not in their corner. However they have picked it up at the right time as they easily took care of Miami and they have had the upper hand against the Cavaliers.

It comes down to teamwork. Boston has been sharing the ball and making the extra pass when needed. If one player has a bad game, someone else steps up for the Celtics. That is not the case for Cleveland. James has had two bad games in a row but there is no one who is capable of making up for it.

“That’s the beauty of our team,’’ said Paul Pierce. “It makes us so dangerous. When you look at Cleveland, you know you’ve got to stop LeBron. With us, we’ve got four or five guys who can lead us in scoring. You never know where it’s going to come from and that’s what makes us so dangerous — different guys stepping up different nights.”

The Celtics are starting to once again look like the 2008 Championship team and that is bad news for the remaining teams still alive in the playoffs.

Cleveland head coach Mike Brown is unsure how to motivate his team and that is a pretty big problem at this stage of the season.

Home Court Shmome Court

The Cavaliers are coming off their worst ever home playoff loss and it came at the worst time. Cleveland suffered its first home Game Five loss in franchise history when a series is tied 2-2. Prior to that, it had been 3-0.

That 32-point loss followed an 18-point home loss and putting that into perspective, those losses by a combined 50 points were more than double of the total that they were outscored by in the six regular season losses combined (23). Obviously, the Celtics have figured it out.

The Cavaliers went into Boston following that 18-point setback and won by 29 points. The road team has now lost three of the last four games in this series and all three by double-digits so the home floor, usually coveted by most teams this time of year, has not proven to be a factor.

If the Cavaliers continue the road-team dominance, don’t be surprised.

Trends

-- Boston is 3-11 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more this season.

-- Cleveland is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games following a loss.

-- Cleveland is 14-4 to the ‘OVER’ in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last three seasons.

-- Boston is 17-4 to the ‘UNDER’ after a win by 30 or more since 1996.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-13-2010, 05:14 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
05/11/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
05/10/10 1-2-1 33.33% -600 Detail
05/09/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
05/08/10 4-0-0 100.00% +2000 Detail
05/07/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
05/06/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
05/05/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
05/04/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
05/03/10 0-4-0 0.00% -2200 Detail
05/02/10 4-0-0 100.00% +2000 Detail
05/01/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
Totals 20-15-1 57.14% +1750

Thursday, May 13Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cleveland - 8:00 PM ET Boston -1.5 500 *****
Boston - Under 194 500 *****

Good Luck !

**StarDust Bum** · 05-13-2010, 11:04 PM

BOSTON AND UNDER>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

**joejoe14** · 05-13-2010, 11:06 PM

Nice play on Boston and the under Bum!

**bryce** · 05-13-2010, 11:10 PM

YEP---nice calls!

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