Thursday Trends and Indexes 5/13 (NBA, MLB, Misc.)

[Udog]

NBA
Write-Up


Thursday, May 13

Celtics outscored Cleveland 70-44 in second half of epic Game 5 tank job by Cavaliers; Boston shot 55% for game, with Allen making 6-9 on arc. Celtic starting Gs shot 15-25 from floor, while James was 3-14 and none of his teammates picked up slack. Boston led at half in four of five series games. Interesting that Shaq had 21 points in worst game of year for Cleveland. Not overstating it to say that this game is biggest in the history of Cleveland franchise, not just for this year, but for the future, as far as whether Lebron stays and all that.

[Udog]

MLB
Write-Up


Thursday, May 13

Hot pitchers
-- Carpenter is 3-0, 2.12 in his last five starts.
-- JSanchez has a 2.56 RA in his last five starts. Latos has a 1.29 RA in his last couple starts.
-- JJohnson is 2-0, 2.50 in his last five starts.
-- Chacin is 2-0, 0.00 in his first two starts (14.1 IP).

-- Verlander is 2-1, 2.29 in his last three starts. Sabathia is 2-0, 3.10 in his last three outings.
-- Wilson is 3-0, 1.26 in his last four starts.
-- Greinke has 2.17 RA in his last four starts; somehow, he hasn't won any of his seven starts this season.

Cold pitchers
-- Norris is 0-3, 11.19 in his last three starts.
-- JSantana is 0-1, 11.12 in his last two starts.
-- Lannan is 0-1, 6.88 in his last three starts.

-- Millwood is 0-4, 4.02 in seven starts, but has 3.10 RA in last three. FHernandex is 0-3, 8.64 in his last three starts.
-- Sheets is 0-2, 13.50 in three road starts.
-- Huff is 0-3, 9.47 in his last four starts.

Totals
-- Five of six Norris starts stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven San Diego road games stayed under the total.
-- All seven JJohnson starts went over the total.
-- Three of last four games at Coors Field went over the total.

-- Eight of last ten Baltimore games stayed under the total.
-- Four of five Sabathia road starts went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Oakland road games went over the total. All six Wilson starts stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Cleveland games went over the total. Greinke's last four starts all stayed under.

Hot teams
-- Astros won their last three games. Cardinals won seven of their last ten home games.
-- Washington won five of its last seven games.
-- Marlins lost six of their last eight home games. Mets lost four of last five away games.
-- Padres won 18 of their last 24 games.

-- Bronx won 10 of its last 14 games. Detroit is 11-4 at home.
-- Oakland won five of last seven games. Rangers won eight of their last eleven home games.
-- Indians won last three games, scoring 19 runs.

Cold teams
-- Rockies are 6-8 in their last fourteen games.
-- Giants lost four of their last five games.

-- Orioles lost six of their last nine games. Mariners lost 10 of their last 14 road games.
-- Royals lost their last seven games, allowing 46 runs.

[Udog]

MLB


Thursday, May 13

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Trend Report
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12:35 PM
SEATTLE vs. BALTIMORE
Seattle is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:05 PM
NY YANKEES vs. DETROIT
NY Yankees are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing Detroit
NY Yankees are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games
Detroit is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Detroit is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing NY Yankees

1:40 PM
HOUSTON vs. ST. LOUIS
Houston is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston

2:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. TEXAS
Oakland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas
Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

2:10 PM
CLEVELAND vs. KANSAS CITY
Cleveland is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Kansas City
Cleveland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

3:45 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games at home
San Francisco is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Diego

7:10 PM
NY METS vs. FLORIDA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing on the road against Florida
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets's last 8 games when playing Florida
Florida is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida's last 8 games when playing NY Mets

8:40 PM
WASHINGTON vs. COLORADO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Washington is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Colorado is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,
Colorado is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Washington


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[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet


Thursday, 5/13/2010

HOUSTON at ST LOUIS, 1:40 PM ET
NORRIS: Houston 36-19 Under in day games
CARPENTER: St. Louis 0-7 SU at home revenging BB losses as a home favorite

SAN DIEGO at SAN FRANCISCO, 3:45 PM ET
LATOS: San Diego 9-3 Under as a road underdog
SANCHEZ: San Francisco 13-3 SU at home off BB games with 0 home runs

NY METS at FLORIDA, 7:10 PM ET
SANTANA: Mets 16-45 SU away in night games
JOHNSON: 15-5 TSR with a line of +125 to -125

WASHINGTON at COLORADO, 8:40 PM ET
LANNAN: Washington 32-71 SU after the bullpen allowed 0 runs
CHACIN: Colorado 40-10 SU as a favorite of -150 or higher

SEATTLE at BALTIMORE, 12:35 PM ET
HERNANDEZ: Seattle 5-14 SU off a loss
MILLWOOD: 9-2 TSR as a home underdog

NY YANKEES at DETROIT, 1:05 PM ET
SABATHIA: Yankees 25-6 SU off 6+ road games
VERLANDER: 14-4 Over on Thursdays

OAKLAND at TEXAS, 2:05 PM ET
SHEETS: Oakland 16-4 Under revenging a road loss by 6+ runs
WILSON: Texas 28-12 SU in May

CLEVELAND at KANSAS CITY, 2:10 PM ET
HUFF: Cleveland 14-5 Over away in May
GREINKE: 1-8 TSR at home with a total of 7.5 runs or less

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

Thursday's six-pack

-- Not sure how much longer Nationals can keep Steven Strasburg out of the major leagues; he's been dominant in two starts at AAA.

-- 18 of 32 NFL teams raised their ticket prices for 2010; only Detroit and Jacksonville lowered theirs.

-- Quick look back at '06 NBA Draft: Rajon Rondo was 21st pick in the first round by Boston. 20th pick? Knicks took Renaldo Balkman. Ugh.

-- In their last two games, Pirates have five hits, no runs. Against the Reds, not exactly Maddux-Smoltz-Glavine.

-- Arizona just finished an 0-6 homestand; maybe firing Bob Melvin last year wasn't such a good idea afterall.

-- If the NFL puts a Super Bowl in New Jersey, then Chicago, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Buffalo should all get one, too. Dumb.


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Thursday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind........

13) Over the last three baseball Sundays, home teams are 35-10.

12) Four college basketball conferences have formed a consortium for its basketball officials, under the leadership of recently-retired referee Curtis Shaw, which is bad news for mascots everywhere, especially Rice mascot Sammy the Owl. Big 12/C-USA/OVC and Southland are participating.

11) Buffalo Bison, AAA farm club of the Mets, have 3B named Hessman who is active leader in minor league home runs- he had 319 last time we looked. He's played in 77 big league games with Tigers/Braves, hitting 13 home runs. Guy like him should write a book someday.

10) Cal Bears are getting their stadium refurbished; they'll play their 2011 football schedule in AT&T Park, where San Francisco Giants call home.

9) In New Hampshire, only people 18 and under have to wear seatbelts; they're big on civil liberties in the Granite State.

8) There is substantial evidence that David Wright hasn't been the same since he got beaned last summer; teams are brushing him off plate early in counts, then getting him out away. His numbers on the road are better so far this year, but he's still not hitting well at Citi Field.

7) Once they get two strikes on them, major league hitters reach base only 28% of the time.

6) There are several major league teams that do extensive scouting reports on umpires. Texas-Oakland-Toronto are among those teams.

5) I would have paid significant money to watch Jerry Sloan the player guard Kobe Bryant. Bryant would've scored his points, but he would've picked his butt up off the floor more than once, and after a series against Sloan, he would have had to visit a dentist, chiropractor, plastic surgeon. Players today give Bryant way too much respect.

4) Good lord-- former astronaut Buzz Aldrin is guest host of WWE Raw next Monday night. Vince McMahon is a freakin' genius.

3) Jimmer Fredette and Taylor Battle are both from this area; very good college basketball players, both pulled their names out of the NBA Draft and will finish their college careers. Excellent decision by both players.

2) 1968: Catfish Hunter threw a perfect game for the A's, at home with a crowd of 6,298 on hand. 2010: Dallas Braden threw a perfect game for the A's, with crowd of 12,228 on hand. Maybe Oakland isn't a baseball town.

1) Odd to note that Tampa Rays swung/missed only five times in Dallas Braden's perfect game Sunday. It was Braden's first career complete game.

[Udog]

Len's Top 5

Happy Thursday everyone, here's my Top 5 for May 13, 2010 from Len Berman.

1. Quick Hits

There are 12 horses entered in Saturday's Preakness States. Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver will break from the #8 post.
The king is dead. In hockey, Montreal upset the defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins in a 7th game, 5-2. Philadelphia forced a 7th game against Boston.
Brian Cushing gets to keep his NFL defensive rookie of the year award. AP held a re-vote after Cushing failed a drug test, but he won anyway.
Tiger Woods says he has an inflamed neck joint. Treatment consists of medication, massage, and rest. Yup wise guy readers, I beat you to the punch. He needs his joint massaged.
Espionage! The Phillies are caught with binoculars in the bullpen in Denver. Were they stealing signs?
Police in Texas arrested a 16 year old high school basketball player, who was really 22. The "kid" led them to the playoffs and had won the newcomer of the year award.

2. Boo Hoo

Wow, they booed LeBron James the other night in Cleveland. That would never happen in New York. Oh wait, they booed Mickey Mantle for several years at Yankee Stadium? Never mind.

3. Bottoms Up

Now we're talking. They want things to get crazy at the Preakness this Saturday. Their advertising slogan is "Get Your Preak on." The Preakness banned BYOB in the infield last year, and attendance plummeted. So at this year's race, come to the infield, pay an extra $20 and guzzle all the beer you can drink. I guess they never heard of "Ten Cent Beer Night in Cleveland" in 1974. All was going well until the drunk fans stormed the field and the game was forfeited. Who wins a forfeit in horse racing?

4. Concession Speak

Elsewhere in concession stand news, the word out of Minnesota is that baseball fans at Target Field may wind up drinking twice as much beer as they did last year at the Metrodome. So that's the ticket. Outdoor fans like to get wasted, indoor patrons enjoy sobriety. Sure hope they bring enough kegs for that New York Super Bowl in 2014.

5. The Name Game

The other day I talked about an old bloopers LP, where one of the sportscasting bloopers involved a horse named "Harass," who was scratched before the race. The announcer intoned, "Don't forget to scratch Harass." So in an effort to bring the Top 5 down into the gutter, Bob W. submitted on Facebook at "Len Berman's Top 5," "Hoof Hearted." He even provides the video.
I choose to take the high road. One of my favorite horse names was "Bodacious Tatas." The odds were always stacked against her.

Happy Birthday: Unique to say the least, but a helluva rebounder. Former NBA star Dennis Rodman. 49.
Bonus Birthday: Stevie Wonder. 60.

Today in Sports: Reggie, Reggie. Reggie Jackson becomes the first major leaguer to strike out 2,000 times. 1983.
Bonus Event: In one of the biggest boxing matches in world history, Frank Stallone beats Geraldo Rivera live on the Howard Stern radio show. Yours truly called the play-by-play. One of my proudest moments. 1992.

[Udog]

NBA


Thursday, May 13

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Tips and Trends
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Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics [ESPN | 8:00 PM ET]

Cavaliers: Cleveland is facing pressure like they haven't seen before. People across the country, and even the owner of the team are questioning the Cavaliers and their effort. F LeBron James struggled mightily in Game 5 offensively, and it seemed as if he was disinterested on the court. How else can you explain a 32 point home playoff loss in a pivotal Game 5? Coach Brown really needs to rally his troops, as they are now facing elimination while playing on the road. James could be playing his final game as a Cavalier, and the press is running with this story. C Shaquille O'Neal will look to dominate again, as he was the lone Cavaliers player to play well in Game 5. O'Neal is averaging 11.6 PPG in the playoffs this year, and will attempt to stabilize his team in a must win situation. Cleveland is 67-25 SU this season, the best record in the NBA this year. The Cavaliers are 28-17 SU and 24-20-1 ATS in road games this season. Cleveland is 9-7 ATS as the listed underdog this season, including 6-4 ATS as a road underdog of 3 PTS or fewer. Cleveland is 4-8 ATS after allowing 105 PTS or more in their previous game.

Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS last 11 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Under is 8-2 last 10 games as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 95 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Celtics (-1, O/U 196): Boston is 1 win away from pulling off an improbable upset of the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Celtics were believed to be too old and up against the team with the best record in the NBA and the favorite to win the Championship. Boston has used their experience and the emergence of PG Rajon Rondo to be up 3-2 in their playoff series. The Celtics won Game 5 in blowout fashion 120-88. It was a shocking road win, as Boston scored 70 PTS in the 2nd half. All 5 starters scored in double figures in Game 5, including a game high 25 PTS from G Ray Allen. F Glen Davis also contributed 15 PTS for the Celtics off the bench. Overall, Boston shot 55% from the field and 53% from the 3 point line in Game 5. Allen is leading the team in scoring this year during the playoffs, averaging 18.3 PPG. Allen has made 31 three pointers in 10 playoff games so far. Boston is 57-35 SU and 40-50-2 ATS overall this season. The Celtics are 28-18 SU and 16-29-1 ATS in home games this season. Boston is 3-7 ATS after an upset win as the listed underdog this season.

Celtics are 5-1 ATS last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 93


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[Udog]

MLB


Thursday, May 13

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Tips and Trends
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New York Mets at Florida Marlins [7:10 PM ET]

Mets: New York has been very streaky this season, both good and bad. The Mets are 4-6 in their past 10 games, and they are 18-16 overall this season. New York is 3rd in the National League East, trailing the Nationals and the Phillies. The Mets lost a tough game in the 9th inning to the Nationals, so they will look to bounce back tonight. Unfortunately, the Mets are only 4-8 on the road this year. Offensively the Mets have perked up, as they've scored 5 runs or more in 5 of their past 8 games entering tonight. P Johan Santana will get the ball tonight, as he attempts to get to 4-2 on the year. Santana has an ERA of 4.54 and a WHIP of 1.25 so far this season. The Mets are 4-1 in Santana's last 5 starts. The Mets are 4-1 in Santana's last 5 road starts against a team with a losing record.

Mets are 7-21 last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 7-3 last 10 vs. National League East.

Key Injuries - 2B Luis Castillo (heel) is questionable.
CF Carlos Beltran (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Marlins (-120, O/U 7): Florida is far more talented than their 16-18 record would indicate. The Marlins are currently at the bottom of the competitive NL East standings. Florida is 7-9 in home games this season, and they will need to improve their offense if they are to get back over .500 both at home and for the season. The Marlins have been held to 4 runs or fewer in their last 8 games. P Josh Johnson will take the mound today as the ace of this Marlins pitching staff. Johnson is 3-1 this year with 3.35 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season. Each start Johnson has made this season has led to the game going over this year, a perfect 7-0. The Marlins are 14-3 in Johnson's last 17 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Marlins are 22-8 in Johnson's last 30 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

Marlins are 2-6 last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 9-3 last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage less than .400%.

Key Injuries - CF Cameron Maybin (wrist) is questionable.
C John Baker (rest) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)


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