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**BettorsChat** · 05-11-2010, 05:50 PM

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**StarDust Bum** · 05-11-2010, 06:22 PM

Celtics at Cavs - Game 5

The second round of the NBA playoffs has been uneventful with three series being runaways. Only one series has kept basketball fans' attention with the Celtics and Cavaliers tied at two games apiece following Boston's equalizer on Sunday at home. The series now shifts back to Cleveland as each team tries to find enough consistency to make it out of this round and to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Before we look ahead to Tuesday's contest at Quicken Loans Arena, let's look back at how home teams perform with the series tied at 2-2 over the last few postseasons. Since 2005-06, home clubs (all favorites) are 20-5 SU and 14-11 ATS in Game 5 of a playoff series even at two games apiece. If we close it down to starting in the 2008 postseason, home teams are a sparkling 14-1 SU and 10-5 ATS.

Since last season, home 'chalk' is 8-1 SU and 7-2 SU in this spot, including a 2-1 SU/ATS this postseason. Below are the results over the last two postseasons in this situation.

2008-09 Game 5's tied at 2-2
Home Team Away Team SU/ATS Result
Boston 106 Chicago 104 W/L
Orlando 91 Philadelphia 78 W/W
Atlanta 106 Miami 91 W/W
Boston 92 Orlando 88 W/W
L.A. Lakers 118 Houston 78 W/W
L.A. Lakers 103 Denver 94 W/W

2009-10 Game 5's tied at 2-2
Home Team Away Team SU/ATS Result
L.A. Lakers 111 Oklahoma City 87 W/W

Atlanta 87 Milwaukee 91 L/L
Phoenix 107 Portland 88 W/W

The Cavs are 3-1 SU/ATS since the 2006 playoffs in Game 5's with the series knotted up at 2-2, but only one of those games has come at home. Cleveland covered three times as a road underdog, including twice at Detroit, but the ATS loss came in an overtime home win against the Wizards in 2006.

Boston is a perfect 5-0 SU the last five postseasons, but just 2-3 ATS with the series tied at two apiece. The one difference this time around is the Celtics will be playing on the road in this situation for the first time.

Celtics at Cavaliers - 8:05 PM EST

The Celtics/Cavs series has been all about two players, LeBron James and Rajon Rondo. James is averaging 29.7 ppg in this series, while putting up 36.5 ppg in Cleveland's two victories in Game 1 and 3. Rondo has turned into a king for the C's by averaging 21.8 ppg and 13 assists/game in this series, including a triple-double in the Game 4 triumph.

Past James and Rondo, the keys are the supporting roles for each squad, starting with the Big Three of Boston. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen have each struggled from downtown, combining to shoot 10-41 (Pierce 4-18, Allen 6-23), while Kevin Garnett has been extremely consistent by averaging 17 ppg in the playoffs and 18.2 ppg against the Cavs. Antawn Jamison has stepped up after being limited to seven points in the series opener by averaging 16.6 ppg the last three games. Mo Williams has clearly been schooled by Rondo, but the Cavs' point guard has tallied 32 points on 12-22 shooting in the two victories. In the two defeats, Williams is 4-18 from the floor for just 17 points.

Boston has outplayed Cleveland for 2 ½ games of this series, but only has two wins to show for it, as Doc Rivers' team needs to grab at least one more in Cleveland to claim this series. The outside shooting has dictated each team's results in the series as Boston has shot poorly from beyond the arc. For the exception of a 9-19 performance from downtown in the Game 2 win, the Celtics have combined to shoot 9-47 in the other three games from beyond the arc. Cleveland has struggled from deep in the losses, nailing only 4 of 21 treys in each of the two defeats.

The Cavs need to shoot well, and when they do, they have been successful. Cleveland shot lights out in the Game 3 blowout by knocking down 59.5% of its shots from the floor, while shooting a solid 48% in the series opener. The numbers were identical in the losses, hitting just 40% of their shots in the Game 2 and Game 4 setbacks.

Cleveland is 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS this season at home off a loss, while going 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS at the "Q" following a road defeat. Boston is a profitable 8-5 SU/ATS on the highway off a home victory, including a 5-2 mark to the 'over' as a road underdog in this situation.

From a totals standpoint, the Celtics are 6-0 to the 'over' the last six games off an 'under,' while the Cavs have hit the 'over' in five of the previous seven following a game in which they scored less than 100 points. Boston started the season by struggling against teams off a loss, but the C's have improved greatly in this spot by winning and covering four of the last five on the road versus clubs off a defeat. The 'over' has profited nicely in this spot as well, as since the All-Star Break the Celtics are 14-4 to the 'over' against teams off a loss, including a 10-1 'over' run the last 11 games.

The Cavs are listed as 7 ½-point favorites at most spots, while the total is set at 193 ½. The game will be televised nationally on TNT.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

-- It's amazing that only one series in the first round finished in a sweep when the Magic knocked the Bobcats out in four games. The second round saw three sweeps after Los Angeles finished off its series against Utah. Phoenix advanced on by exorcising its playoff demons with the elimination of San Antonio in four games, while Orlando easily dismissed Atlanta.

-- I'll echo what many have seen and said following Steve Nash's gutsy performance in the series clincher against the Spurs. The two-time MVP played with one eye open for the final quarter and hit several big shots to boost Phoenix to the Western Conference Finals. If fans think Nash is over the hill, check out these numbers: 50% shooting from the floor, 42% from three-point range, and 93% from the line, including averaging a double-double. Steve Kerr doesn't look too bad for dumping Shawn Marion and Shaquille O'Neal, while not trading Amare Stoudemire at the deadline.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-11-2010, 06:24 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

Rays at Angels – The Rays are 6-0 since May 13, 2009 when Jeff Niemann starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $680

Braves at Brewers- The Braves are 11-0 since July 02, 2009 as a favorite after a 5+ run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1100. The Brewers are 0-7 since June 10, 2009 when David Bush starts at home for a net profit of $770 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-6 since June 20, 2009 when David Bush starts as a dog after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Astros at Cardinals – The Astros are 0-7 since August 29, 2009 on the road when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $715 when playing against.

Marlins at Cubs – The Marlins are 9-0 since April 17, 2009 when Ricky Nolasco starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $1090.

Dodgers at Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are 10-0 since April 27, 2009 when Dan Haren starts as a 140+ favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $1000.

Padres at Giants – The Padres are 6-0 since September 06, 2009 as a road dog when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $880. The Giants are 8-0 since May 01, 2009 at home after a win in which they had more than ten team-left-on-base for a net profit of $800. The Giants are 7-0 since August 18, 2009 as a 140+ favorite and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $700. The Giants are 6-0 since April 22, 2009 when Barry Zito starts vs a team that won their starters last three starts for a net profit of $805.

Nationals at Mets – The Nationals are 4-0 since June 18, 2009 as a road dog after scoring 3 runs or less and winning and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $750. The Nationals are 4-0 since April 29, 2009 when Scott Olsen starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $600. The Mets are 7-0 since April 18, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $700.

Mariners at Orioles – The Mariners are 0-6 since August 06, 2009 on the road after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $610 when playing against. The Orioles are 6-0 since May 04, 2009 after a loss in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $765. The Orioles are 0-8 since August 27, 2009 when David Hernandez starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $840 when playing against.

Reds at Pirates – The Pirates are 0-9 since June 20, 2009 vs a team that has won at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-7 since July 28, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-7 since July 28, 2009 when Charlie Morton starts as a dog after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Athletics at Rangers – The Athletics are 6-0 since June 11, 2009 when Trevor Cahill starts vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $670. The Athletics are 0-8 since May 18, 2009 as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Rangers are 7-0 since September 21, 2009 as a favorite and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $700.

Blue Jays at Red Sox – The Red Sox are 1-6 since September 28, 2009 when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $660 when playing against.

Phillies at Rockies – The Phillies are 5-0 since April 11, 2010 when Roy Halladay starts as a favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $500

Indians at Royals – The Indians are 0-9 since September 01, 2009 on the road and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Indians are 0-7 since May 02, 2009 on the road after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $715 when playing against. The Royals are 0-6 since July 02, 2009 at home after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Royals are 0-6 since May 29, 2009 when Brian Bannister starts in the first game of a series for a net profit of $625 when playing against.

Yankees at Tigers – The Yankees are 7-0 since June 26, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $700. The Tigers are 0-7 since July 22, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Tigers are 7-0 since May 05, 2009 when Rick Porcello starts at home after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $725

White Sox at Twins – The Twins are 9-0 since May 01, 2009 as a favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900

**StarDust Bum** · 05-11-2010, 06:25 PM

Tuesday at the Ballpark

Cliff Lee helped the Phillies make it back to the World Series last season. But he couldn’t be shipped out of town fast enough for Philadelphia to acquire Roy Halladay. Both stud hurlers will be taking the mound on Tuesday night. Let’s examine their games.

Mariners (12-19, -868) at Orioles (8-23, -1,073) – 7:05 p.m. EDT

There was a time before this season started that the Mariners were tabbed as favorites to win the American League West. And almost mid-way through May Seattle sits in last place, 5 ½-games behind Ron Washington’s Rangers. They are entering this game on a positive after defeating the Angels 8-1 as a $1.10 home pup last Sunday. The win snapped an eight-game losing skid.

Cliff Lee (0-1, 2.40) will no doubt be hoping that that surge of offense comes to help him out on Tuesday night. He might have a better shot of watching pigs fly since the M’s are next to last in Major League Baseball in runs scored (102), 28th in team batting (.229) and the fewest home runs (12). You can kind of understand why Lee has only had three runs scored for him in his two starts.

Even though Lee has failed to get run support, he did let his last start on May 5 at home against the Rays get away. He allowed six hits and two earned runs in his first seven innings of work against Tampa Bay. But Lee imploded (by his standards, anyway) for three runs on four hits in the eighth en route to an 8-3 setback.

The one thing that Lee and the Mariners have going is that they’re facing off with Baltimore at Camden Yards. The Orioles have been agonizingly bad this year. Outside of a three-game sweep at home of the Red Sox (a blind squirrel even finds a nut), the O’s have only won one other series, last week at Minnesota. And Baltimore needed some snow to fall in May for that to happen.

I shouldn’t be too hard on the Orioles. They are hitting better as a team that Seattle (.244) and have scored more runs than their opposition on Tuesday evening (107). Plus, Ty Wiggington has almost as many four-baggers (10) as Seattle has in this still young season.

Another thing we can cut Baltimore some slack on is its schedule. Out of the 10 series the Orioles have had this season, only one was against a team with a losing record. That series happened to be against the M’s at Safeco Field and they were owned.

David Hernandez (0-4, 5.74) gets the nod for the O’s in this contest, but that might not be such a good thing. Hernandez hasn’t lasted more than 6.1 innings in any of his starts this season. And he just got rocked for six earned runs on six hits in 3.2 innings of work on the road against the Yanks on May 5. It also doesn’t help that Hernandez is 2-5 with a 4.88 earned run average in 11 career starts at Camden Yards.

The Orioles have gone 13-20 over the last two seasons at home against teams from the AL West and 3-8 in the last 11 contests. The ‘under’ is 7-4 in those past 11 games in this spot.

Seattle is 4-9 on the road this season with the totals going 6-6-1. Although, the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run.

Baltimore is 4-8 at home this season, with the totals posting a 5-5-2 mark.

The ‘under’ is 8-3-1 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings between these clubs.

Phillies (19-12, +269) at Rockies (15-16, -331) – 8:40 p.m. EDT

Philadelphia hasn’t had too much to worry about after going 7-3 during its 10-game homestand. That run has helped the Phils keep a two-game cushion over Washington in the National League East. The Phillies’ bats have been lively during this streak as they’ve averaged at least four runs in six of their 10 home tilts. Yet the ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in those spots. How does that happen? Good pitching, that’s how.

Nobody has pitched better on the Phillies’ staff than Roy Halladay (6-1, 1.45) in 2010. The former ace of the Blue Jays has taken the NL by storm. Halladay has lasted at least seven innings in each of his seven starts, going the distance in three of them. And he is 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA in his four starts away from Citizens Bank Park.

This will be Halladay’s first start at Coors Field, which would probably be a good reason to take a flyer on fading him in the high altitude. Then you find out that he grew up in the mean suburbs Denver, so that angle doesn’t really fly with him.

Colorado is happy to get back home this week after finishing off a nine-game road trip with a 4-5 mark. Of course, that doesn’t say much consider that the Rox are just 7-5 in their cozy confines on Blake Street.

Aaron Cook (1-3, 6.03) will get the nod in the second game of this series. If his last two starts are any indication, then the Rockies can expect Cook to give up five earned runs in at least five innings of work. That could help make the ‘over’ a solid wager in this contest since it has hit in three of Colorado’s last four home tests.

Philly fans should take heart in the fact that their club has won six of its last seven contests in Denver. The ‘over’ has cashed tickets in all seven battles.

As good as things might seem with Halladay on the mound, bettors should be wary. The Phillies have gone just 10-10 as road favorites against NL West foes, losing four straight in this role.

Colorado has gone 4-2 in its last six home dates against clubs out of the NL East.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-11-2010, 06:26 PM

Rondo vs. the King in Game 5, quite possible

The spelling might be slightly different, but Rajon Rondo has been very much like Ronco’s famous “Veg-O-Matic”. Rondo has sliced and diced the Cleveland defense and cut up the Cavaliers guards like helpless tomatoes or onions. Even with an up-and-down Game 3 performance, he’s averaging 21.8 points, 13 assists and 8.3 rebounds per contest and is the biggest reason Boston and Cleveland is now best two of three.

NBA playoff basketball is about making adjustments from game to game. Cleveland was more aggressive from the start in Game 3, as LeBron James and his teammates bottled up Boston from the opening tap and free-wheeled around the TD Garden going wherever they wanted in winning 124-95 as one-point underdogs.

Coach Doc Rivers didn’t like his offense or defense in that contest and made two modifications for Sunday’s game. He wanted every defender to create more on-ball pressure, thus limiting Cleveland’s ability to drive or pass wherever they desired to go and got more hands up on shots and limited the Cavs to 40.3 percent shooting after draining 59.5 percent two days prior.

Though not publicly stated since series opener, Rivers evidently gave Rondo the green light to take the ball and go rim-running whether he had teammates or not. Rivers had said after Game 1 he wanted other Celtics players to run with Rondo in transition. They did for the most part in second contest in Cleveland, but went back to old ways in being drubbed in next tilt.

Rondo appeared to have free reign Sunday afternoon and carved up the Cavaliers defense for 29 points, 13 assists and a Bill Russell-like 18 rebounds. Boston won by 10 as 1.5-point home dogs and is 5-1 ATS after winning as a home underdog.

LeBron James has surveyed the situation and is tired of watching his guards get cleaved up by Rondo. “I think it starts with Rondo. He's kind of the engine that really gets them going," James said. "He does everything for them. His performance was unbelievable.
"Rondo was definitely the difference maker."

James has increasing taken pride in his ability to stop opposing players and was spotted by more than one courtside observer in Boston letting coach Mike Brown know he wants to get into defensive stance against Rondo.

"I would love to,'' James said after the game. “It's something we maybe should explore because Rondo is definitely dominating this series at the point guard position. For me, I don't have a problem taking Rondo or guarding Rondo throughout the course of the game. If the coaching staff or the guys want me to do it, I will."

This is not unprecedented for the Cavs as King James guarded Derrick Rose in last series and limited what the Bulls guard could do taking turns with teammates.

Cleveland is 13-4 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite and is a 7.5-point pick at Bookmaker.com with total of 194.5. This strategy might come out of necessity for coach Brown whose team is 16-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Since the guards are not handling the lightning quick Boston guard and are once again ineffective as scorers, just like in Orlando series in last season’s playoffs, Brown might be forced to employ this method.

The green-clad C’s are 11-4-1 ATS in postseason underdog role and know the better defense they play, that leaves more chances for the former Kentucky guard to run free in the open court.

This TNT 8:00 Eastern matchup has alternated Over’s and Under’s in the first four meetings, however the OVER is still 6-2 in previous eight matchups.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-11-2010, 06:27 PM

Vancouver favored to even series

Motivation can come many different ways for the athlete. Usually it has to do with respect or the lack of it in many cases. Maybe that is what it took for Vancouver goalie Roberto Luongo to get back on track, along with slowing down the game, contrary to the Canucks typical style.

Luongo was called the “second best goalie” in their series with Chicago by his own coach Alain Vigneault. With a strategy change and what seemed to be a more focused netminder, Vancouver staved off elimination with a convincing 4-1 road win in Chicago to force a Game 6.

Luongo stopped 29 of 30 Blackhawks shot attempts and his team slowed the pace of the game down, which proved to be more to their liking and frustrated Chicago who wanted to end the series. "Sometimes when all the chips are on the line, you tend to be a little more careful," said Luongo. "You don't want to make a huge mistake that costs you the game. Whatever it was, it worked for us tonight."

The Canucks return home where they are 11-1 in home games having lost two of their last three this season and might have learned a valuable lesson.

“The two games in Vancouver obviously our emotions in some situations got the best of us,” coach Vigneault noted. “We needed to be more disciplined and we were.”

Vancouver would be smart to play with same urgency and build early lead like they did in last outing, but this time get their fans behind them.

“The biggest thing was Vancouver having a little more urgency off the start tonight,” Chicago’s Jonathan Toews said after the game. “We gave them the opportunity to get up 3-0. Against any team in a do-or-die game, they’re not going to let you come back and waltz through the offensive zone. They played smart and protected their lead well.”

Vancouver is 14-2 in home games after playing a road affair and is a -135 money line favorite with total of 6 at Bookmaker.com. However, the Canucks have found virtually no success on home ice as seen with 1-9 record in the second round of the playoffs, which includes a pair of defeats in this series. They are 8-0 OVER at GM Place in this round of the postseason, but probably needs another lower scoring contest to force a seventh game.

Chicago will try to create more action around the net and is 28-13 playing their fourth game in a week. This contest will be on VERSUS and the CBC at 9:30 Eastern, with the Blackhawks 10-3 UNDER as visitors off a home loss by two goals or more.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-11-2010, 06:28 PM

MLB Systems that circle the bases

On this Tuesday in baseball, some series start and others continue, but opportunity is always present for the sports bettor. We unleash five MLB systems from five different contests, three on the sides and two totals for you to consider today. Take a few minutes to read over and see what catches your eye as potential wagering options. All sides and totals from Bookmaker.com.

Seattle at Baltimore 7:05E

The Mariners ended their disastrous 1-8 homestand with a win on Sunday and travel cross-country to the East Coast to begin an eight-game road excursion. After scoring 12 total runs and being shut-out three times, Seattle had rare outburst in 8-1 victory over division partner Los Angeles of Anaheim. The M’s are next to last in the American League in batting average and road teams with a batting average below .255, off a win by six or more runs are 41-15 UNDER in next outing.

Toronto at Boston 7:10E

The Blue Jays have been among baseball’s best surprises in 2010; however they haven’t been hard to figure for Boston. Toronto has lost all four games to the Red Sox in this new campaign, as Brandon Morrow was pathetic after his club had given him a 4-2 lead in the second inning last evening. Morrow allowed six runs in just 1 2/3 innings, walking six batters and permitting three hits. This placed quite a burden on the bullpen and Toronto lost 7-6.

Dana Eveland will try and break the spell Boston has had on Toronto, however despite 3-1 record and 3.82 ERA, Eveland has more walks than strikeouts in his 35+ innings (17 vs.16). Bookmaker.com has the Blue Jays as +150 money line underdogs and teams with with a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per outing, after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings, are 10-56 the last five seasons.

Houston at St. Louis 8:15E

The Astros have set up camp at the bottom of the NL Central and are giving indications they might not be leaving any time soon. Houston is the only team in the National League that has yet to score 100 runs on the season (85 total runs = 2.7 RPG). And Houston certainly does have a problem with a power outage, sending only 13 baseballs over the fence with the league’s mean average at 30 dingers.

Newly acquired Bret Myers (1-2, 3.67 ERA) has been more than adequate and would have better record with improved run support. However the ‘Stros are +210 road underdogs and clubs averaging less a home run per contest with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better are merely 15-66 since 2006.

Chicago at Minnesota 8:10E

For years, the Metrodome was a “house of horrors” for the White Sox having lost 15 of last 18 at the indoor facility. Chicago is hoping a move outdoors will be a benefit for them and will have Freddy Garcia (5.38 ERA) on the mound after a game in which he did not give up a home run or walk a batter.

Minnesota is a -168 ML favorite and leads the AL Central and is second to Tampa Bay in ERA at 3.51. AL favorites of -150 or higher, allowing 4.7 or less runs a game against opponents starting pitcher, who did not walk a hitter in last outing are 87-26.

Los Angeles at Arizona 9:40E

The state of Arizona is under siege nationally for its new immigration law and the Diamondbacks bullpen is feeling similar pressure, not getting anyone out. Arizona’s pen has eye-popping ERA of 7.09, 4-8 record and five blown saves in 12 tries.

Tonight they turn to their ace Dan Haren (4-1, 1.224 WHIP) to end four-game losing streak and hope he give his usual seven or more strong innings to save the beleaguered bullpen. With the total a spot on nine, home teams with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the year, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games and with a posted total by oddsmakers of 9 or 9.5, are 33-8 UNDER.

**Tnbreakers** · 05-11-2010, 07:17 PM

Bol Bum!

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The Bum's Tuesday's Best Bets MLB-NBA-NHL !

The Bum's Tuesday's Best Bets MLB-NBA-NHL !

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