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**StarDust Bum** · 05-10-2010, 11:55 AM

Monday Night Baseball Betting Preview

On the same night the New York Yankees say hello to an old friend, the Detroit Tigers bid farewell to one of their organization’s true legends. Johnny Damon faces the Yankees on Monday night for the first time since being signed by the Tigers, who will honor Ernie Harwell as they return to Comerica Park for the first time since the Hall of Fame broadcaster passed away last week.

Harwell spent 42 of his 55 years in broadcasting with the Tigers (17-14, +2.5 units) before retiring in 2002, and the man often referred to as the “voice of summer” died at 92 on Tuesday, eight months after revealing he’d been diagnosed with inoperable cancer.

Detroit honored Harwell with a ceremony shortly after he announced he was ill, and before the opener of this four-game set with the Yankees (21-9, +8.9), it’ll say goodbye. A flag with Harwell’s initials will be raised as part of the festivities.

“In my opinion, you haven’t been a big league ballplayer until Ernie Harwell talks about you,” said third baseman Brandon Inge, the lone current Tiger who will participate in the flag-raising. “That man was as genuine as they come. He means more to the Detroit Tigers, the state of Michigan and the city of Detroit than a lot of people.”

This is the first meeting between the Yankees and Tigers in 2010 - New York won five of six last season - but the clubs certainly aren’t lacking for familiarity. Just a month after the Yankees won their 27th World Series title, they acquired All-Star center fielder Curtis Granderson from Detroit in a three-team deal that sent top prospect Austin Jackson to the Tigers.

That move left little room in the outfield for Damon, who hit .285 with 77 homers from 2006-2009 with the Yankees and the two-time All-Star is now splitting time between left field and designated hitter in Detroit.

“Personally, I had four great years (in New York) and you can never take away the championship,” Damon, who’s hitting .294, told MLB’s official website. “They went a different way, and so did I. Both places are happy with how things are going.”

While Granderson’s return to Detroit is on hold due to a groin injury, the Tigers are certainly happy with his successor in center. Jackson has 22 hits in his last 46 at-bats and leads the AL in average (.371), a point ahead of teammate Miguel Cabrera and they are 32-14 at home in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.

New York also signed Marcus Thames in the offseason after the outfielder played in Detroit from 2004-09. He’s batting .394 with a homer and four RBIs in 13 games with his new club who is 71-38 against other teams with winning records.

Jackson had two hits and scored twice Sunday, but Max Scherzer - who came over from Arizona in the Granderson trade - was roughed up again in a 7-4 loss at Cleveland.

The Yankees had won six straight heading into Sunday’s finale at Boston but suffered a rare lopsided loss. A.J. Burnett allowed nine runs in 4 1/3 innings as New York fell 9-3, leaving them 21-31 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in road games having won three of four since 2008.

That poor outing spoiled Alex Rodriguez’s 586th career homer, which tied him with Frank Robinson for seventh place. “It’s good,” said Rodriguez, who’s hitting .375 (9 for 24) in May. “I’ve said always that when I retire I’ll look back on those things.”

Rodriguez doesn’t have a hit in three career at-bats against Dontrelle Willis (1-1, 3.99 ERA, 1.502 WHIP), who is showing signs of progress after making just 14 starts the past two seasons. Willis pitched six shutout innings against the Twins to earn his first win April 29 and retired 12 straight Tuesday at Minnesota after allowing six of the first 10 batters to reach. He didn’t receive a decision, giving up three runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 4-3 loss.

Willis hasn’t faced the Yankees since 2006 with Florida and is 12-25 (-20.5 Units) against the ML vs. teams whose hitters strike out six or less times a contest in his career. (Team's Record)

The left-hander will be opposed by Sergio Mitre (0-0, 2.79, 0.928), who’s making a spot start while Andy Pettitte recovers from left elbow inflammation. Mitre was 3-3 with a 7.16 in nine starts last season, and he’s expected to be limited to 70 pitches in his first career appearance against Detroit.

Sportsbook.com has New York as -130 ML favorites with total Ov10 and they are 115-52 as a favorite of -110 or higher and 8-0 OVER after three consecutive games versus a division rival this year. The Tigers are 30-15 at Comerica Park when the money line is +125 to -125 and is 24-11 OVER at same location vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better.
This series opener of this four game series is on ESPN at 7:05 Eastern for Monday Night Baseball.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-10-2010, 11:56 AM

Boston and Pittsburgh look to win and move on

The Bruins and Penguins have their first shot of moving to East Finals when they play Monday night. Boston theoretically has the easier task, playing on home ice at TD Garden, however they are not as large a favorite as Pittsburgh is on the road north of the border. Will both emerge victorious and get ready to meet each other or will they be forced to play another game?

Philadelphia at Boston 7:00E TSN

The Bruins can’t feel too bad losing to the Flyers in Game 4. Philadelphia had to win to avoid the embarrassment of being swept on their own frozen pond and Boston pushed them to overtime before falling.

Normally reliable defenseman Zdeno Chara turned the puck over at center ice, leading to the winner for Philly.

"We had our chances," said Boston coach Claude Julien. "There were chances in overtime for both sides. It's just the way it goes. Sometimes its one little mistake, one little miscue, and it's in the net."

The B’s are back home and are 41-16 having won three of their last four. This is a confident club, knowing what it takes from this point.

“Just play the same way: Play to win," said right wing Mark Recchi, who had two more goals Friday night. "We came in here (Philadelphia) and played two pretty good games. They battled hard and got a big win. But we're going home. We've got home-ice (advantage) in this series and we've kept it.”

The Bruins have to revert back to defensive-style, which has allowed them to be 36-13 when they permit two or less goals. Offensively it is about finding the right opportunities and the importance of center Patrice Bergeron is greatly enhanced with of fellow C David Krejci out for the rest of the playoffs with broken wrist.

Boston is a -145 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com with total Ov5 and they are unbeaten at home in the postseason (5-0) and 7-0 as Bean-Town favorites. The Bruins are 14-4 UNDER in dark home jerseys when playing with two days’ rest.

Philly survived their first elimination game and is 9-2 away after a one goal victory on home ice. Nevertheless, the Flyers are 3-9 after a game where nine or more total goals were scored this season.

Pittsburgh at Montreal 7:00E VERSUS

The Canadiens have kept Sidney Crosby locked up, as he has failed to score in this series and has been held without a point in three of five conflicts. This has shifted the focus over to Evgeni Malkin, last year’s regular-season scoring champ and playoff MVP.

Malkin has been a factor in each contest against Montreal, but he was dominating when his team needed him most with series tied 2-2. Malkin controlled the puck for long stretches of time in the Canadiens zone. He led Pittsburgh with six shot attempts in Game 5 and though he didn’t score, he set up a power-play goal by Kris Letang, and later controlled the rubber in the offensive zone before Sergei Gonchar tallied what would be the winner in tight 2-1 tussle.

"It's great to watch. It's great to have him on your team," said veteran forward Bill Guerin, who returned to the lineup after an undisclosed injury kept him out of Games 3 and 4. "When he takes it to that level, it's really, really hard for other guys to stop him. Even two guys, he's going to make it difficult on you. If he's not taking it to the net himself, he's going to find somebody. If he gets in that zone of playing, it's really difficult for the other team."

The Pens have won five of last six as visitors and are -175 ML pick to close out series. Pittsburgh is 5-1 as visiting favorite of -151 to -200 and are 27-14 UNDER in road games after allowing one or fewer goals in previous contest.

Montreal doesn’t sound like a team getting ready to play golf and have the summer off. “We're not going to go away. You know that," Habs forward Mike Cammalleri said. "Now we just have to win one game at home and we're right back where we want to be."

The Canadiens might be 6-14 as playoff underdog, but all six wins have come this postseason and if they can contain Pittsburgh again and limit them to two goals, they are 26-14 when the opponent registers that scoring total.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-10-2010, 05:57 PM

Inside the Paint - Monday

The Magic and Lakers squared off in last year’s NBA Finals, with Los Angeles capturing the championship in six games. Both clubs were expected to contend again this postseason and the two teams haven’t strayed off the path. Tonight, Orlando and Los Angeles have the opportunity to reach the conference finals by earning road victories at Atlanta and Utah respectively. Can the Hawks and Jazz show some pride and salvage wins on their homecourt?
This year’s postseason has featured three teams that have faced 0-3 deficits and Miami was the only team to force a Game 5, which happened in the first round against Boston. The Heat’s victory was quickly forgotten after the Celtics took care of business in the very next game. While the Heat stayed alive, Charlotte and San Antonio were both swept in Game 4’s on their homecourt to Orlando and Phoenix respectively.

We looked at similar situations in the last five playoffs and things haven't gone well for teams trailing. Going back to 2005, there have been 15 best-of-seven series that watched a team build a commanding 3-0 lead. In the fourth installment, the team trailing has gone 4-11 straight up, which means the broom gets busted out often. When you add the 1-2 results this season, the number is up to 5-13 or 28%. Including the Heat, the other four teams that showed some guts in the last six playoffs are below:

2009 – Dallas 119 Denver 117 (Mavs were blown out in Game 5)
2008 – Phoenix 105 San Antonio 86 (Suns lost Game 5)
2007 – Chicago 102 Detroit 87 (Bulls actually won Game 6 too)
2005 – Phoenix 111 San Antonio 106 (Suns lost Game 5)

Let’s take a quick look at the two games tonight, which will be featured on TNT.

**Orlando at Atlanta**

Oddsmakers opened Orlando as a five-point road favorite for Game 4 and the number was quickly bet up to six and is sitting at 6 ½ at a few offshore outfits. After watching the Magic win and cover the first three games of this series by double digits, you could make a case that the line is too low, especially when you look at Orlando’s body of work in the postseason so far. Stan Van Gundy and his troops have been a covering machine this postseason, going 7-0 SU and ATS behind a defense that hasn’t allowed over 100 points in any of the seven games.

On Saturday evening, the Magic took the heart out of Atlanta with an easy 20-point (105-75) win. Orlando jumped out to a 52-33 lead at the break and never looked back as the home locals deservingly booed the Hawks off the court.

Can Atlanta’s head coach Mike Woodson put some fire into his club or is this series over? VegasInsider.com handicapper Brian Edwards doesn’t believe so. “You can put a fork in this team and I’m not just talking about for this series. GM Rick Sund had to be mortified by the lack of effort and intensity in Game 3. Josh Smith’s body language was completely unacceptable and I’m not talking about when Atlanta fell down by double digits. I’m talking about from the first minute of the game. Joe Johnson has been atrocious throughout the playoffs and that was most evident in Saturday’s blowout loss. Johnson was 0-for-5 in the first quarter, 1-for-9 at halftime and 3-for-15 for the game. And then afterward, he said he “could care less if the fans show up.” No wonder this team’s chemistry has been horrible the last couple of weeks and the leadership has been non-existent,” said Edwards.

Johnson has been mentioned as a franchise player who could earn a maximum deal in the offseason but you wonder is some teams will be reluctant to pay a player who averaged just 12.3 points on 29 percent shooting against the Magic in this series.

Including this best-of-seven battle, the Magic have now won nine of the past 11 encounters (9-2 ATS) against the Hawks over the last two seasons. And the one victory this year for Atlanta came on a buzzer beater dunk by Josh Smith at home.

During this same stretch, the ‘under’ has gone 8-3 and the total has ranged anywhere from 191 to 198. The total for Game 4 is hovering between 193 and 194 points.

If necessary, Game 5 will be on Wednesday from Orlando.

**L.A. Lakers at Utah**

The Lakers owned a 2-0 lead over Oklahoma City in the first round but that effort was dismissed when the Thunder locked up the series with two wins at home. Fortunately, Los Angeles won the next two games and advanced to the conference semifinals against Utah.

Similar to the opening round, Los Angeles took the first two games at home against the Jazz. Rather than sitting back, Kobe Bryant and the Lakers picked up the heat and earned an impressive 111-110 win over the Jazz in Game 3 on Saturday.

The setback for Utah was another disappointing outcome for Jerry Sloan’s team since they had plenty of opportunities to win but the shots just didn’t fall. While the Jazz missed, the Lakers made, including a huge 3-pointer by Derek Fisher that gave the club a 109-108 lead late in the game. Fisher, Bryant and Ron Artest had their best shooting performance of the series in Game 3 by combining for 13 bombs from 3-point land.

In case you’re wondering, 1989 was the last time Utah was swept, as Golden State did the honors 3-0 in the opening round behind Chris Mullin and Mitch Richmond. However, keep in mind that the Jazz has never been swept in a best-of-seven series.

Los Angeles has gone 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS versus Utah this season, which includes a 2-1 mark at Salt Lake City.

Beating the Jazz in the playoffs has become the norm for the Lakers, since they did so last year with a 4-1 victory and 4-2 during the 2008 postseason. Perhaps 4-0 makes sense this year, right?

Prior to the first three games of this series, the ‘under’ had gone 7-0 in the previous head-to-head encounters between the Jazz and Lakers. The pendulum has swung to the ‘over’ in this second round affair, with all three battles cashing tickets. Oddsmakers have bumped it up to 207 from 203, which could be a little inflated for what could be another tight contest.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-10-2010, 06:00 PM

Playoff Results - Second Round

Second Round Results

Home teams are 8-6
Favorites are 9-5 straight up
Favorites are 7-7 against the spread
The 'over/under' tally is 9-5

Home Visitor Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Saturday May 1, 2010
Cleveland (-7.5) Boston 101-93 FAVORITE OVER 191.5

Sunday May 2, 2010
L.A. Lakers (-7) Utah 104-99 UNDERDOG OVER 198

Monday May 3, 2010
Cleveland Boston (+6, +250) 104-86 UNDERDOG UNDER 192.5
Phoenix (-4.5) San Antonio 111-102 FAVORITE OVER 205

Tuesday May 4, 2010
Orlando (-9) Atlanta 114-71 FAVORITE UNDER 192.5
L.A. Lakers (-6) Utah 111-103 FAVORITE OVER 199

Wednesday May 5, 2010
Phoenix (-3) San Antonio 110-102 FAVORITE OVER 206
Thursday May 6, 2010

Orlando (-9.5) Atlanta 112-98 FAVORITE OVER 193
Friday May 7, 2010
Boston Cleveland (+1, +100) 124-95 UNDERDOG OVER 193.5
San Antonio Phoenix (+7, +300) 110-96 UNDERDOG UNDER 206.5

Saturday May 8, 2010
Atlanta Orlando (-2) 105-75 FAVORITE UNDER 194
Utah L.A. Lakers (+4, +165) 111-110 UNDERDOG OVER 202.5

Sunday May 9, 2010
Boston (+1.5, +110) Cleveland 97-87 UNDERDOG UNDER 195
San Antonio Phoenix (+4, +170) 107-101 UNDERDOG OVER 208

Monday May 10, 2010
Atlanta Orlando
Utah L.A. Lakers

Tuesday May 11, 2010
Cleveland Boston

Wednesday May 12, 2010
Orlando Atlanta
L.A. Lakers Utah

Thursday May 13, 2010
Boston Cleveland

**StarDust Bum** · 05-10-2010, 06:02 PM

Cashin' Underdogs

MLB UNDERDOGS - WHO'S MAKING MONEY?
In our 20-plus years of handicapping, we have always had the philosophy in baseball that underdogs are the way to go. Most of my plays throughout the season are small favorites and underdogs.

Occasionally we use a "higher" favorite, however we’re in the belief that in the long run those plays can get you in trouble. You need to win such a high percentage of those types of games that just a few losses can really hurt. That's why we stay away from large favorites for the most part.

We would much rather try and target an "undervalued" dog and know that at plus-150 we only need to win over 40 percent of those plays to make a profit. It’s a much more comfortable situation with that scenario as opposed to laying minus-150 and hoping to hit 60 percent or more of those selections to come out on top.

We like to keep track throughout the season of how teams do as an underdog. This list changes daily but this is how it looks as of Friday, May 7.

Right now, just over half of the MLB teams this year have made a profit so far when tabbed as an underdog.

Here they are...

ROI = Return on Investment.
That is a simple calculation where I take the total money won by a team this year as an underdog (based on $100 per game) and divide it by the total amount of money wagered on a team as an underdog (at $100 per game).

For example, Washington has been an underdog 26 times (thus $2600 wagered on them this year as a dog) and they are currently +$900 as a dog (profit) thus their ROI would be 34.6% which is great. Or $900 (profit as a dog) divided by $2600 (total wagered) = .346 or 34.6%.

Tampa Bay Rays - 7 games as a dog - 5-2 record - +$415 profit - ROI = 59%

Philadelphia Phillies - 7 games as a dog - 5-2 record - +$400 profit - ROI = 57%

New York Yankees - 3 games as a dog - 2-1 record - +$150 profit - ROI = 50%

Washington Nationals - 26 games as a dog - 14-12 record - +$900 profit - ROI = 34%

Milwaukee Brewers - 11 games as a dog - 6-5 record - +$315 profit - ROI = 28%

Minnesota Twins - 11 games as a dog - 6-5 record - +$180 profit - ROI = 16%

Kansas City Royals - 25 games as a dog - 11-14 record - +$380 profit - ROI = 15%

Texas Rangers - 12 games as a dog - 6-6 record - +$160 profit - ROI = 13%

San Diego Padres - 19 games as a dog - 10-9 record - +$260 profit - ROI = 13%

New York Mets - 16 games as a dog - 8-8 record - +$190 profit - ROI = 11%

Pittsburgh Pirates - 26 games as a dog - 11-15 record - +$260 profit - ROI = 10%

St. Louis Cardinals - 4 games as a dog - 2-2 record - +$40 profit - ROI = 10%

Toronto Blue Jays - 16 games as a dog - 7-9 record - +$130 profit - ROI = 8%

Cincinnati Reds - 17 games as a dog - 8-9 record - +$130 profit - ROI = 7%

Detroit Tigers - 15 games as a dog - 7-8 record - +$90 profit - ROI = 6%

San Francisco Giants - 9 games as a dog - 4-5 record - +$25 profit - ROI = 2%

We realize it's still early in the season and these numbers can change quickly, however it's something that you should keep an eye on throughout the season. It can give us an idea of who some of the solid underdog teams might be as the season wears on.

We like to look for a solid underdog team, with a solid underdog pitcher slated to start. If that team is then playing an overrated team or more importantly pitcher, it can be worth a long look as a potential play.

These are just a few of several different factors that come into play during my decision making process. These underdog charts simply provide me with a good starting point.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-10-2010, 06:03 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday

Rays at Angels – The Angels are 8-0 since April 10, 2009 as a home dog after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $910. The Angels are 6-0 since April 10, 2009 as a home dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $675

Braves at Brewers – The Braves are 7-0 since May 06, 2009 as a road 140+ favorite when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $700

Marlins at Cubs – The Cubs are 0-4 since September 30, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a loss in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $705 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-5 since July 20, 2009 when Ted Lilly starts vs. a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $715 when playing against.

Dodgers at Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are 8-1 since October 02, 2009 when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $990. The Dodgers are 0-4 since September 13, 2009 when Chad Billingsley starts as a road favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $535 when playing against.

Nationals at Mets – The Mets are 8-0 since April 27, 2009 when John Maine starts at home vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $840. The Mets are 6-0 since April 17, 2009 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.

Reds at Pirates – The Reds are 5-0 since May 01, 2009 when Bronson Arroyo starts on the road in the first game of a series for a net profit of $625. The Reds are 4-0 since April 14, 2009 on the road after a win in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $640. The Pirates are 0-8 since August 05, 2009 within 20 cents of pick ‘em vs. a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Pirates are 4-0 since July 20, 2009 when Ross Ohlendorf starts in the first game of a series for a net profit of $545.

Blue Jays at Red Sox – The Blue Jays are 5-0 since September 28, 2009 on the road after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $695.

Phillies at Rockies – The Rockies are 8-0 since May 29, 2009 at home after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $835. The Rockies are 0-5 since April 06, 2010 when Greg Smith starts vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $540 when playing against.

Yankees at Tigers – The Yankees are 0-5 since August 17, 2009 on the road after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $695 when playing against. The Tigers are 6-0 since August 01, 2009 within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $635

**StarDust Bum** · 05-10-2010, 06:06 PM

Playoff Results - Second Round

Second Round Results

Favorites have gone 11-8
Home teams have gone 11-8
The 'over' is 11-6-2 after 19 games
Favorites that have won are 4-7 on the puck-line

First Round|

Home Visitor Time/Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Thu Apr 29, 2010
Sharks (-145) Red Wings 4-3 FAVORITE OVER 5.5

Fri Apr 30, 2010
Penguins (-270) Canadiens 6-3 FAVORITE OVER 5.5

Sat May 1, 2010
Bruins (-155) Flyers 5-4 (OT) FAVORITE OVER 5
Blackhawks Canucks (+145) 5-1 UNDERDOG OVER 5.5

Sun May 2, 2010
Penguins Canadiens (+240) 3-1 UNDERDOG UNDER 5.5
Sharks (-135) Red Wings 4-3 FAVORITE OVER 5.5

Mon May 3, 2010
Bruins (-145) Flyers 3-2 FAVORITE PUSH 5
Blackhawks (-165) Canucks 4-2 FAVORITE OVER 5.5

Tue May 4, 2010
Canadiens Penguins (-165) 2-0 FAVORITE UNDER 5.5
Red Wings Sharks (+140) 4-3 (OT) UNDERDOG OVER 5.5

Wed May 5, 2010
Flyers Bruins (+140) 4-1 UNDERDOG PUSH 5
Canucks Blackhawks (+115) 5-2 UNDERDOG OVER 6

Thu May 6, 2010
Canadiens (+140) Penguins 3-2 UNDERDOG UNDER 5.5
Red Wings (-130) Sharks 7-1 FAVORITE OVER 5.5

Fri May 7, 2010
Flyers (-145) Bruins 5-4 (OT) FAVORITE OVER 5
Canucks Blackhawks (+110) 7-4 UNDERDOG OVER 6

Sat May 8, 2010
Penguins (-270) Canadiens 2-1 FAVORITE UNDER 5.5
Sharks (-145) Red Wings 2-1 FAVORITE UNDER 5.5

Sun May 9, 2010
Blackhawks Canucks (+170) 4-1 UNDERDOG UNDER 6

Mon May 10, 2010
Canadiens Penguins 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Bruins Flyers 7:00 p.m. EDT - -

Tue May 11, 2010
Canucks Blackhawks 9:30 p.m. EDT - -

Wed May 12, 2010
Penguins Canadiens TBD - -
Flyers Bruins TBD

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The Bum's Monday's Best Bets MLB-NBA-NHL !

The Bum's Monday's Best Bets MLB-NBA-NHL !

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