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**BettorsChat** · 05-08-2010, 12:25 PM

gl Stardust

**StarDust Bum** · 05-08-2010, 12:55 PM

Do you dare bet Saturday’s NBA home teams?

The Utah Jazz and Atlanta Hawks are down 0-2 and neither is given much of a chance to come back in their respective series. That doesn’t mean they won’t give complete effort having slept in the own beds and will feel the energy of the home crowd once they hit the floor. But does either team really have enough, can they play a complete game with the minimum amount of failures and get back into the series to make it interesting at the very least. For the sports bettor, this is what to look for if you want to play these teams.

In primetime on ABC at 8:00 Eastern, Utah is looking forward to adding one more weapon to their depleted arsenal, with Andrei Kirilenko “AK47”, expected to play after missing most of two months with a strained left calf.

Kirilenko is unlikely to be a major factor, but if he can limit Kobe Bryant defensively, while invigorating the offense, that becomes a positive for the Jazz.

Utah is 35-9 and 29-13-2 ATS in home games this season and needs to make an adjustment that is contrary to how they play. Coach Jerry Sloan’s motion offense has again led to Utah being one of the top shooting teams in the NBA at 49 percent, but after awhile, you can’t keep going into the paint against the taller Lakers and have shots stamped “return to sender” continually.

Utah has had 20 blocked field goal attempts already in this series and might be better served to drive and kick out to shooters or use drive-and-stab dribble to create 10-foot shots instead of facing rejections or altered shots.

The Jazz are not going to beat Los Angeles by playing swarming defense, they have to out-shoot them. In Utah’s last 10 wins over the Lakers at home, they have had the higher shooting percentage nine times. In fact, the team that shoots the ball better is 14-1-1 ATS in Salt Lake City since Nov. 3, 2004.

The Jazz are 4.5-point favorites at Bookmaker.com with total of 202.5. Utah is 18-6 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less and 15-6 OVER in double revenge situations. The Lakers are seemingly much better than Utah and appear to get bored when building any substantial lead but are 18-7 ATS after consecutive contests forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers.

It’s hard to believe NBA analyst and former coach Hubie Brown is 76 years old, as he still can make watching an NBA game a pleasure, breaking down the teams and players for the more sophisticated fan, yet make salient understandable points for the casual observer. Brown also has the gift of criticizing a player in a manner that isn’t demeaning but fair, but later finding a positive about that same player later in a telecast, just like a coach.

Brown has had plenty of ammo to work with watching the Atlanta. The Hawks were a no-show in Game 1, losing to Orlando by eye-popping 43 points. As presumed, Atlanta showed much more resolve in the next contest and was tied at 83 with the Magic after three quarters.

However, NBA basketball is about performing when it matters most, the fourth quarter. Atlanta is like a lot of NBA teams, they lacked that killer instinct to take care of opponent in the last 12 minutes and they were outscored 28-15 by Orlando in the final stanza.

For this 5:00 Eastern matchup on ESPN, Atlanta is 8-3-1 ATS off a double digit defeat and has to make up their minds they want to play all 48 minutes. This team had impressive wins in the regular season over good clubs and has to bring that same fire for all four quarters. The other component necessary to victory is Mike Bibby playing like a point guard of distinction.

Atlanta has just 28 assists in two games vs. Orlando and Bibby has a grand total of four. Coach Mike Woodson’s team to often lapses into dribbling without purpose, running down the shot clock and taking forced shot attempts. As John Hollinger of ESPN points out, Bibby’s postseason play has been the weakest of the remaining point guards still in the tournament and the Hawks are not talented enough to hide his poor play like the Lakers can do with Derek Fisher or someone else that comes off the bench in Los Angeles. Bibby’s team needs him, it’s time for his to deliver.

The Hawks are catching 2.5-points as home dogs and they will have to do better than 1-8 ATS off a SU loss if they want to continue this series beyond four games. Going up against the hottest team in the playoffs will test their fortitude, since Orlando is on 12-game winning streak and is awe-inspiring 11-1 ATS.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-08-2010, 12:56 PM

Marc Lawrence's NBA Second Round Playoff Info

With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s one to Round Two where a series upset or two is always in the realm of possibility.

Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout 2nd round playoff action. All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise. Enjoy.

Three down, but not out
Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not go down easily in Round Two.

Unlike most other rounds, teams playing off three consecutive losses that are not favored (pick or dog) prove to be resilient this round, going 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS.

Better yet, if they showed some spark of like in the last game – scoring 82 or more points – these teams tend to take a punch almost as well as Jake LaMotta, going 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in this role.

Thou shall not lay points to a No. 1 seed
One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: never lay points against No.1 seeds.

That’s because inferior teams are just 15-25-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996. Worse, if the No. 1 seed is off a SU and ATS loss, lower seeded favorites are just 3-10 ATS.

And if the lower seeded favorite beat the top seed and covered the spread by nine or more points, they dip to 1-10 ATS.

Role reversals
You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs do.
That’s confirmed by the fact that Round Two dogs off a straight-up loss as a favorite are 29-20 ATS.

When changing roles off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, these puppies bark to the tune of 11-4 ATS, including 10-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of les than .680 on the season.

Running on empty
Teams that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up the next game in this round.

That’s evident by a sparkling 20-10-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.

Put these favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 15-3 ATS, including 14-1 when laying four or more points.

There you have it. Four reliable betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 2nd round of this year’s NBA playoffs. Use your head and play accordingly.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-08-2010, 12:57 PM

MLB Series Betting- Tampa Bay at Oakland

Going to go against the grain, while the Yankees and Red Sox will hog a lot of the headlines this weekend in Major League Baseball, the fact is neither is in first place. The real action this Mother’s Day weekend is in the Bay Area where two American League teams are playing and each starts their three game series atop their division.

The last team to start the season 21-7 like Tampa Bay was the 2005 Chicago White Sox, who went on to win the World Series. The last AL team to have an ERA under three (the Rays are at 2.84) this far into a new campaign was the White Sox five years ago and they won the World Series.

You get the picture; Tampa Bay is off to sensational start, thanks to great pitching and an everyday lineup that is averaging 6.0 runs per contest, the best in the bigs.

“Right now, we’re going to ride this as long as we can,” manager Joe Maddon said. “Obviously, the starting pitching has been fabulous. … I believe we can play to this standard for a long time.”

The Rays arrive in Oakland with a four game winning streak after sweeping Seattle and are just the fourth team in the last 49 years to start 12-1 or better on the road. Tampa Bay isn’t just beating other clubs in their own park, they are pulverizing them, winning by 4.7 RPG. They will start David Price (3-1, 2.34 ERA) in the opener, the top pick in the 2007 draft. The left-hander is living up to his considerable potential has given up three runs or fewer in each of his five starts.

Oakland has something not many would have expected in the first full weekend of May, a winning record. The A’s won their series over Texas this week and is tied for first in the AL West.

Oakland will trot out their talented lefty Gio Gonzalez (3-1, 3.45), who has cut down on his walks which has kept him out of bad innings. At 24, for the first time in his career, he is mixing his low-90’s fastball with big breaking curve, showcasing his swing-and-miss stuff on a regular basis. Gonzalez has more strikeouts (27) than hits allowed (23) and has not conceded a home run in his last four starts.

The red-hot Rays are a -155 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com Friday night with total Un7.5 and are 79-23 as a favorite of -150 or more and are 12-2 OVER against teams with a winning record. The teams last met in Florida on Apr. 28, with the A’s falling 10-3. Oakland is just 3-7 as home underdog and is 15-4 UNDER revenging a road loss of six runs or more over the last three seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Oakland
The Athletics are well aware how good Tampa Bay is having dropped a pair to them in 2010. They respect what they have accomplished but are not intimidated by the former Devil Rays. “They've got a good lineup -- a lot of runners and also some good power," said Oakland catcher Landon Powell. "But I like our team, too. You go out there any day [and] any team can win, so we're going to try and do our best and see what happens."

The A’s might have one edge in the final two games of the series being played under natural sunlight; they are 8-3 in the day time. Skipper Bob Geren gives the ball to Ben Sheets (1-3, 7.12) whose returning from injury. After a number of adequate starts, Sheets has been ripped for 19 hits and 17 runs in last two outings, serving up batting practice pitches that opposing hitters have taken yard five times. Oakland has won just once in six starts by Sheets but is 8-3 on Saturday’s.

The second best pitching prospect in the Rays organization behind Price is the Game 2 start Wade Davis (3-1, 2.79). The right-hander has 93-94 MPH fastball, with what scouts call a “plus hard curve”. Even with his obvious skills, Davis best attribute is his unflappable nature and supreme composure. Tampa has won Davis’ prior four starts and is sparkling 7-0 vs. RH hurlers.

Game 2 Edge: Tampa Bay

If A’s can earn a split coming series finale, they have history on their side. Tampa Bay has won five on last nine meetings in Oakland, but has a long dismal history of failure in Oak-Town with 12-34 record coming into the series.

James Shields (4-0, 3.15) is the elder statesmen of the staff at 28 and will try to keep his club on the winning track. The right-hander has reputation working both sides of the plate with his hard stuff and a spinner curveball. Shields’ has arguably the best change-up in the AL and will throw it on any count. He is 4-1 with a 3.59 ERA in nine career starts against Oakland.

The white-clad Athletics counter with Dallas Braden (3-2, 4.14) who has five quality starts in six games, with the one bad coming against the Rays and Shields (6 runs and 8 hits in 4 innings). Braden has short over the top delivery and likes to cut his fastball to keep it away from RH batters. When he uses his curve, prefers big sweeper to lefties and downward motion to hitters on the other side of the box. Braden has a 2-1 record with a 2.67 ERA in four home starts this season and has brilliant strikeout-to-walk ratio of 19-3 at the Oakland Coliseum. Look for manager Maddon to load up with RH swingers since Braden is permitting .229 BA to lefties and .274 to righties.

Game 3 Edge: Tampa Bay

It might be intriguing to bet the A’s in this series, but it wouldn’t make sense. Tampa Bay is the best team in baseball because they score runs and don’t allow many. They have allowed more than eight base hits twice in their last 11 contests.

Oakland only bats .252 as team and they are ninth in runs scored at 4.3 in the junior circuit. If they can grab a lead in the late innings the A’s would have a chance, since they are the only team in baseball without a blown save (6-0), however the Rays are patient as the dish drawing over four walks a game.

Now does not appear to be the time to bet against Tampa Bay.

Sportsbook.com series odds: Tampa Bay -190, Oakland +150

**StarDust Bum** · 05-08-2010, 12:58 PM

Fox Saturday Baseball

If it’s Saturday, then Fox must have some national broadcasts of Major League Baseball between showings of American Idol. They’re offering up just two games that will give some early divisional bragging rights to the winners. Let’s look at these contests.

Yankees (20-8, +887) at Red Sox (15-14, -457) – 3:10 p.m. EDT

Is it possible that the Red Sox are finally finding their groove?

Leading up to its series opener with the Yankees, Boston is rolling along after a four-game sweep at home of the Angels. The Sox’s offense teed off on Los Angeles’ pitching to the tune of 36 runs. To give you an idea of how impressive that is, the BoSox scored 38 combined in their eight games before facing the Halos. And David Ortiz went just 2-for-7 in the series with one homer. That brings him up to a robust .171 batting average with four home runs and seven runs batted in for the season.

Clay Buchholz (3-2, 2.97) is coming into this game as one of the Red Sox’s best pitching options right now. He has won his last two starts by giving up five earned runs in 13.2 innings of work. There is room for improvement with Buchholz as just six strikeouts to five walks in those contests (He had 10 K’s to 1 BB on April 27 at Toronto).

What can be said about the Yankees that hasn’t already been said? They are in the Top 5 in team hitting (.276), runs scored (151) and four-baggers (34). New York also has a pitching staff that is fifth in team earned run average (3.45), sixth fewest walks surrendered (88) and fourth in WHIP (1.22). And gamblers have enjoyed taking the Yanks on the run line (-1 ½ runs) as they’ve covered that spread in all 19 wins this season.

The Yanks will send C.C. Sabathia (4-1, 2.74) out to the mound on Saturday afternoon. He’s been a workhorse for New York so far, lasting at least 7.2 innings in his last three starts. And the opposition is having a devil of a time hitting him, evidenced by a .212 average.

New York has to feel confident about taking this series after winning two of three at Fenway Park to open the 2010 campaign. The ‘over’ cashed in two of those tilts as well. Boston fans shouldn’t fret as they’ve won seven of last year’s nine meetings at home with the Bronx Bombers.

The BoSox have gone 5-2 at home this year against southpaws, including a recent 3-0 run.

The ‘over’ is 15-11-1 for the Yankees this season, 9-5-1 on the road.

Boston has watched the ‘over’ go 14-13-1 in 2010, 10-7 when played at Fenway.

Braves (12-17, -776) at Phillies (18-11, +319) – 3:10 p.m. EDT

Just when you thought that the Braves were back in business, reality slaps them across the face.

Atlanta appeared to have bounced back from a nine-game losing skid by sweeping the Astros at home to start off the month. But they fell apart right after that, dropping two of three in our nation’s capital to the Nationals. The Braves are now a startling 4-12 away from Turner Field this season.

Bobby Cox will turn to Kris Medlin (1-1, 2.55) to stop the bleeding. It’s hard to tell if Medlin has the goods to turn things around since he hasn’t pitched more than three innings in any appearances this season. He hasn’t started a game for the Braves since mid-July of 2009, the last of his four starts last year. Atlanta went 1-3 in that small set of starts from Medlin.

Things are going just fine for the Phillies right now. They’ve won five of their last six games, covering the run line in four of those tests. And if that weren’t enough, their security staff tased a 17-year-old numbnut, to the delight of everyone at Citizens Bank Park (and my endless laughter).

Joe Blanton (0-1, 5.40) will be making his second start of the season after spending the first month of the season on the disabled list with a strained left oblique. In his first outing of the year, Blanton allowed four earned runs on 10 hits in 6.2 innings of work en route to a 6-3 loss at home to the Cardinals. Not a terrible performance considering St. Louis is one of the National League’s better clubs.

Atlanta has gone 11-20 as a road pup in day games over the last two seasons, losing both spots in 2010. The ‘over’ is 18-13 in that stretch, which includes 5-0 run.

Philly does well at home in daytime affairs, evidenced by a 34-23 mark dating back to the start of the 2009 campaign. The ‘over’ is 32-24-1 in those contests and 4-1 in the Phils’ last five.

**Jimmy The Greek** · 05-08-2010, 08:45 PM

GoodLuck , Good Start On Basketball

**dss_pansat** · 05-08-2010, 11:58 PM

You are best in basketball today 4-0

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The Bum's Saturday's Best Bets MLB-NBA-NHL !

The Bum's Saturday's Best Bets MLB-NBA-NHL !

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