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**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2010, 04:32 PM

Are Atlanta Hawks already bad bet?

The source of the question you are about to read might seem a little strange, but it turns out to be exactly correct in breaking down Atlanta and Orlando series. “Is the anticipation of some future pleasure better than the actual experience?”

Winnie the Pooh posed that question before eating honey and the Hawks of Atlanta are wondering the same thing in saying “…we’re looking forward to seeing what we can do in the playoffs against Orlando”. After being trounced by 43 points (Atlanta missed a push against the spread by a mere 34 digits) the first thought that comes to mind is “really?”

Atlanta was actually competitive for the first 12 minutes, trailing only 25-23 and they went into somnolence. The Birds scored a grand total of 21 points in the middle two quarters and gave new meaning to the NBA Playoff slogan “Amazing is ……?

Coach Mike Woodson could go to Home Depot, buy all the paint his credit card would allow and it still wouldn’t cover up this stink bomb.

After a one game reprieve against a Milwaukee club that in all fairness isn’t in Atlanta’s world talent-wise, the Hawks reverted back to being the Hawks on the playoff road. Now 2-11 ATS (aver. loss 19.9 PPG) on postseason excursions, Atlanta showed exactly why they don’t belong with NBA elite.

After passing the ball around for a few first quarter assists and buckets, Woodson proved he really has no control of this team as Joe “iso” Johnson and Jamal “shot craver” Crawford were a combined 5 for 22 from the field, which is truly “amazing”.

The Hawks are 4-18 ATS away from home versus good teams outscoring opponents by three or more points a game after the mid-point of the season the last three years and might have to use Dictionary.com to look up the word – team.

Josh Smith was the only player that had a descent stat sheet with 7-14 shooting and three steals, but he took silly fouls and continues to play “street ball” on an NBA court. In his defense, just think what Atlanta would have shot (they were 34.6 percent) for game if Smith had not made half his shots?

Dwight Howard only played just over 28 minutes, but this time it wasn’t because of foul trouble, it was because it was a total demolition by Orlando. Howard had 21 points, 12 boards and five blocks and the only word that came to mind watching Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia trying to stop “Superman” was “helpless”. In fact, the Atlanta big men really wanted so little to do with Howard he couldn’t find enough of their players to commit his usual three or four reckless fouls.

Oddsmakers like those at Bookmaker.com can’t overreact to 43-point cave-ins and the Hawks are 9.5-point underdogs, with total of 189.5. Maybe a hug and drinking from their favorite sippy-cup will make Atlanta feel all better and even after being throttled; they are 8-1 ATS after scoring 85 or fewer points.

Coach Stan Van Gundy probably wouldn’t mind a competitive contest, since it appears the next round could be coming soon and his team is 29-12 ATS after playing a home game this season. Orlando is 30-14 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more and the unimposing Hawks are 20-7 UNDER revenging a road loss of 10 points or more.

Stayed tuned to ESPN at 8:00 Eastern to witness the next massacre or if Atlanta can really play with heart, for a change.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2010, 04:35 PM

Blue Jays hot and so is system they are facing

The Toronto Blue Jays were thought to be lock to be in the basement of the American League East, instead they are 16-13 (+5.6 units) and in third place, ahead of the Boston Red Sox at this juncture.

The Chicago White Sox started the season with what many baseball experts thought was the best four starting pitchers in the junior circuit. Thus far only one of them has pitched up to capabilities and instead of being Central Division contender, the White Sox are 12-16 (-6) and a full seven games behind front-running Minnesota.

Toronto’s confounding start is because of arms, not necessarily bats in 2010. The Blue Jays are tied with Tampa Bay for the most quality starts at 18 in the AL and collectively the entire staff has been mowing down opposing batters with league-leading 230 strikeouts.

Tonight’s starter Dana Eveland (2-1, 4.77 ERA, 1.588 WHIP) is not a pitcher who blows batter’s away (13 K’s in 28.1 innings), however he doesn’t make the big mistake and has only given up one home run every 14 innings roughly this year.

Toronto’s team batting average in 12th at .238, however they are fifth in run scored thanks to leading the AL with 43 home runs, led by Vernon Wells at eight.

Every Chicago starter has an ERA over five except for John Danks (3-0, 1.85, 1.000), who has been the one pillar of strength on the South Side.

The left-hander has had to be sharp, with the Pale Hose ninth in runs score in the AL at 4.2 and last in hitting with pitiful .229 average. The Sox are below the Mendoza Line with runners in scoring position (.199), which is last in the majors.

“He has continued to throw the ball well since spring training,” manager Ozzie Guillen told the White Sox’s official website. “He’s on the right track and hopefully every time we go out there we can put some runs up for him.”

Bookmaker.com views the pitching matchup as quite a disparity with Chicago a -190 money line favorite. This series opener also falls into quite a winning system.
Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who have team batting average of .260 or less, against a good AL starting pitcher with ERA of 4.20 or less, with their hurler giving up one or fewer home runs every two starts.

Chicago already comes into this game feeling good after crushing Kansas City 9-2 last night and is 21-6 at home after scoring nine runs or more. Since 1997, today’s system is 86-19, 81.9 percent and has been particularly potent the last three years at remarkable 21-2. Over the years this system also lends itself to run line potential, with the favorite winning by 2.2 runs per contest in the 105 games played.

It is true the Blue Jays have won four in a row, but they are going to lose eventually and tonight looks like it might that time.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2010, 04:38 PM

Run Line or Money Line – Yankees case study

The New York Yankees name and brand is known everywhere. Go any place in the world either walking or driving and you are bound to see a Yankees hat or t-shirt. When it comes to betting, the same is true, everyone knows the Bronx Bombers and their storied history and whether you love them or loathe them, everybody has an opinion on the Yankees and those setting the numbers on them are well aware of this fact.

Needless to say, it does not make a lot sense to bet against New York, as for well over a decade they have been the best team in baseball year in year out.

The Yankees success has led to frequently inflated money lines by oddsmakers, as they know the wagering public may root for an underdog from time to time, but when it comes down to placing money on wagers, favorites will get the call the vast majority of the time.

With New York having the best talent money can buy or trade for, the Yankees are often a -200 or more ML favorites and each loss suffered in this realm means at least two other victories are required to break even or show a profit.

It is often suggested by handicappers or others in wagering forums to reduce the risk of betting the Yankees from time to time, instead bet them as large favorites on the run line (-1.5). Here you are predicting New York wins by two or more runs and if they don’t, your risk is basically cut in half.

The question becomes is this the right strategy?

Broke down last year’s championship regular season on New York and focused first on them being a -155 or higher money line favorite.

Of their 162 games, the Bombers were placed in this role 82 times or just over half their contests played, which is rather hefty baggage.

For those not familiar, a -200 favorite is a 66.6 percent choice to win, basically 2-1 and manager Joe Girardi’s club was 58-24, 70.7 win percentage when a -155 or higher betting pick.

As you might imagine, a number of the 24 defeats were extremely pricey (five at -285 or higher) and it really cut into potential profits. For their 58 wins in this circumstance, Derek Jeter and teammates showed a meager ML profit of +7.2 units winning seven out of 10 games as decided favorites.

Instead of picking and choosing run lines, let’s convert all 82 contests as good to oversized chalk into run lines.

The first bit of news is somewhat depressing, as 10 of the 58 wins were one run victories, giving us 10 more losses for wagering purposes and lowering our winning percentage to 58.5 percent, wagering on the run line.

However, many of our regular wins came with increased profits on the run line. Of our 48 W’s that covered the spread (-1.5), 26 of them were in the range of -155 to -190 and instead of having a +100 profit on triumphs, the profits were +105 or greater. Those 26 wins provided rewards of +30.55 units.

Now for the math lesson on ML vs. RL.

Our 58-24 ML record added up this way.

58 units – 50.2 units = +7.8 units

But take our poorer spread record (48-34) and do the math.

New York had 26 wins that generated +30.55 to go along with the other 22 wins that added up +22 more units.

Our original 24 defeats moved over to run line bets lost -26.3 units and the new 10 extra losses against the spread cost an additional -10.5 units. Nonetheless look at the difference.

30.55 + 22 = 52.55 (-) 26.3 + 10.5 = -36.8
52.55 - 36.8 = +15.7 units

The +15.7 units of profit on the RL nearly double’s the amount made of betting the Yankees on the money line in same exact situations. What looks more enticing to you?

Another story frequently spoken in sports betting circles is taking the Yankees as -150 or smaller favorites because of the “value” you are getting on them as compared to higher prices. While this might be true to a point, it’s certainly not a fact.

Last year A-Rod and the fellas were -105 to -150 favorites 56 times, just over a third of the schedule, thus making the argument of “rare” opportunity sound ridiculous. In those games, Steinbrenner’s crew was 33-23 for +3.3 units of profit.

However, upon digging further, if the sage bettor bet the Pinstripes on the run line in price range of -130 to -150 they would have came away with +5.2 units in spite of 9-8 record or better than playing New York as “valued” favorite 56 times.

The Yankees are the most exaggerated team when it comes to paying the price, nevertheless public teams like Boston, Philadelphia, the Cubs or the Dodgers when they are playing well could well show more profits betting them daily on the run line vs. the money line as good-sized favorites.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2010, 07:49 PM

Hawks at Magic, Game 2

The Magic pulled out every trick in the book to rough up the Hawks in the series opener of the Eastern Conference semifinals, 114-71 on Tuesday night. Orlando looks to capture a 2-0 series lead at Amway Arena on Thursday, while Atlanta not only looks for a split, but also for some pride after suffering its second-worst playoff loss ever.

The Hawks didn't look too bad after trailing the first quarter of Game 1 by just two points, 25-23. The wheels fell off the wagon soon after as Mike Woodson's team scored just 21 points in the next two quarters combined. Atlanta actually tied the game at 27 following a Marvin Williams jumper, but the Hawks managed only six points in the final ten minutes of the second quarter. The Magic put together a 26-6 run to grab a 20-point halftime lead and never looked back.

Dwight Howard struggled in the Charlotte series due to foul trouble, but the Defensive Player of the Year rebounded nicely in Game 1 with a 21-point, 12-rebound performance to go along with five blocks. For as horrible as the Hawks shot from the floor (34.6%), the Magic were boosted by efficient nights from Vince Carter (7-16 FG, 20 points) and Jameer Nelson (8-12 FG, 19 points).

Al Horford dominated the paint in the Milwaukee series, thanks to Andrew Bogut missing all seven games due to a right arm injury. Things are different now facing the intimidating Howard in the middle, as my colleague Brian Edwards points out, "Horford is a natural power forward who is undersized against just about all centers, but he overcomes that with his muscle, athleticism and work ethic. The problem with defending Howard, however, is that he can match (if not exceed) Horford in all of those departments and then has the size advantage."

Edwards feels if Horford can't slow down Howard, the Hawks don't have many other options, "Zaza Pachulia is also overmatched against Howard, so this forces Woodson to send double-teams against a lethal three-point shooting team. In other words, the Hawks have to pick their poison and hope for the best (Howard foul trouble or poor perimeter shooting by the Magic)."

The Hawks have now gone seven straight games against the Magic scoring 87 points or less, which has translated into six 'unders,' dating back to April 2009. Following Orlando's easy cover as nine-point favorites, the Magic is 7-1 ATS the last eight in this series. Over Orlando's last four home victories against Atlanta, the margin of wins is 43, 18, 32, and 34, an average of 29.2 ppg.

Atlanta is 1-5 ATS and 2-4 SU the last six on the road off a road loss, while going 5-8 ATS on the highway off a defeat this season. Orlando is a solid 8-3-1 ATS and 11-1 SU at home off a win since a ten-point home loss to Dallas on February 19.

Home teams that won the series opener through the first two rounds are 3-5 ATS in Game 2's this postseason, as Atlanta, Orlando, and Boston all covered as home 'chalk' in the second game following a victory in Game 1.

Edwards doesn't see the Hawks turning the corner in Game 2, "Orlando has now blown out Atlanta in four of the five head-to-head meetings. Four of those victories have been by 17 points or more, so you have to wonder where the Hawks' psyche is going into Game 2. Then again, maybe the Magic get too overconfident? But I doubt it."

The Magic is listed as a nine-point favorite once again on Thursday, but Edwards doesn't feel that's enough points, "I'm surprised the oddsmakers haven't made Orlando a double-digit favorite for Game 2. Until we see the Hawks play more unselfishly, there's no reason to think they're going to cover in Orlando. It could be another story back in Atlanta, but I think gamblers have to look to the Magic or pass on the side in Game 2."

The total is set at 189 ½ as ESPN has national coverage of the game tipping off at 8:05 PM EST.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

-- Cleveland's rally fell short in the Game 2 loss to Boston as the series shifts to Beantown on Friday. Rajon Rondo is proving that he is an elite point guard in this league, and not just the point guard of the Celtics surrounded by stars. Rondo's 19 assists in Monday's victory tied a Boston playoff record, while six Celtics scored in double-figures. The Cavs are laying one point at most spots in Game 3 on Friday night, as the Celtics are listed as a home underdog in the playoffs for the first time since Game 2 of the NBA Finals against the Lakers in 2008 (C's won, 108-102).

-- The defending champs have taken the first two games against the Jazz, extending L.A.'s winning streak to 16 games at Staples Center over Utah. Luckily for the Jazz, the series heads back to Salt Lake City on Saturday. The Lakers have now taken a 2-0 series advantage over the Jazz in each of the last three postseasons. However, Utah has found a way to capture Game 3 over the last two seasons, thanks to a pair of single-digit victories at Energy Solutions Arena. The Jazz opened as a four-point favorite, while owning a 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS as home 'chalk' this season off a loss.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2010, 07:50 PM

Thursday's Diamond Tips

Thursday’s in baseball are reserved for series finales as they get ready for their upcoming weekend battles. Tampa Bay is finishing up its three-game set in the Pacific Northwest with the Mariners. Before that game, we’ll look at a pair of contests in the Senior Circuit.

San Francisco (15-10, +412) at Florida (13-13, -166) – 7:10 p.m. EDT

The Giants are on the verge of overtaking San Diego for the lead in the National League West after winning seven of their last 10 contests. Matt Cain (1-1, 2.84) gets the start for the final game of this series. Cain has actually been spot on this season with his low earned run average and almost has a 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s just not getting any help from his offense as San Francisco’s bats have scored two or fewer runs in two of his starts.

Florida might only be .500 in the standings, but they’re playing like a team trending down. The Marlins have dropped six of their last nine contests. And while the Fish have been swinging the bats well as of late (22 runs in last three games), their defense is lacking. Florida has been lit up for more than six runs in three of its last five tests and all three of them were losses. Ricky Nolasco (2-1, 4.01) has performed well so far in five starts. But he’s looking to avenge his last outing on April 30 where Nolasco gave up five earned runs in four innings to the Nationals.

San Francisco’s bats have been on target recently, scoring at least five runs in six of its last seven contests. But the Giants’ pitching has been going so well that the ‘under’ has gone 5-2 in that time. Plus, the ‘under’ is 12-2 in their last 14 fixtures.

The road team has won two straight when these clubs have met up. And totals players shouldn’t worry too much about that high scoring series opener as the ‘under’ is 5-2-1 dating back to last year.

Chicago Cubs (13-13, -339) at Pittsburgh (10-15, +110) – 7:05 p.m. EDT

Perhaps we spoke to soon about the Cubs’ bats waking up. After seeing Chicago post no fewer than seven runs in its last three games, they were downed 3-2 in the series opener to the Pirates on Tuesday night as $1.50 road favorites. Ryan Dempster was kept in for one inning too long in Game 1, giving up the game-winning home run to Ryan Church in the bottom of the seventh.

Lou Piniella will try not to make the same mistake on Thursday night with Randy Wells (3-0, 3.45) getting the start. Although it is unlikely Wells can’t be out there long enough. He’s been quite reliable this season and has struck out 14 batters without a walk in his last two starts. The only downside to Wells is he has allowed seven earned runs in those appearances.

Pittsburgh is feeling good about snapping a three-game slide with that win on Tuesday. The Pirates will be looking to close out the series with Brian Burres (1-1, 6.00) on the mound. If there is any room for optimism for Bucs it is in the fact that Burres actually lasted 5.1 innings in his last outing on April 29, a 2-0 win at Los Angeles in his second start of the season.

The Cubbies have gone 5-2 in their last seven games as road favorites against left-handers dating back to the end of June 2009. But those two setbacks came in their last three games in this role.

Tampa Bay (18-7, +838) at Seattle (11-15, -512) – 10:10 p.m. EDT

The Rays improved their MLB-best road record to 10-1 after a 5-2 victory over Seattle as $1.45 road faves. This was the first time that Tampa Bay actually scored at least five runs since its home series opener with the Royals (11-1) back on April 29. Before we can say they are on top of the world, the Rays’ offense isn’t back just yet. Tampa Bay is hitting .260 for the season. On Tuesday evening, they hit .210 as a team.

Jeff Neimann (1-0, 2.76) will take the ball for Tampa Bay for the last game of this series. He’s been a solid performer for Joe Maddon’s club this season, but he has two straight no decisions. Neimann’s only decision of the year was a winning one as he gave up two earned runs on five hits in seven innings as the Rays won 8-2 on April 19 in Boston.

Seattle will counter with Aussie hurler Ryan Rowland-Smith (0-1, 5.28) to finish off the series on a high note. The Mariners have won two of Rowland-Smith’s last three starts, but hasn’t picked up a decision in any of those games. His ERA is taking a hit though, giving up eight earned runs in his last two starts.

Tampa Bay has been posted as a $1.35 home favorite with a total of eight.

The M’s have gone 14-16 over the last two years as home pups to AL East foes. In the last eight games in this role, Seattle is 3-5. The ‘under’ has gone 5-2 in their last seven tilts under this situation.

The Rays have seen the ‘under’ hit in four straight contests. That’s a far cry from the 11-5 run the ‘over’ was making just before the low-scoring stretch hit.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2010, 07:54 PM

Sharks strive to avoid improbable letdown

DETROIT (AP) -The Detroit Red Wings have accomplished a lot over the last two decades, winning four Stanley Cups in six trips to the finals during the longest active postseason streak in sports.

The Red Wings, though, have never done what they're trying to do now.

If fact, just two teams in NHL history have won a series after trailing 3-0 as Detroit does against the San Jose Sharks.

``We're looking at it as what a great feeling it would be if we could be the team to do that again,'' Red Wings captain Nicklas Lidstrom said Wednesday. ``In doing that, you can only look at the next game and not the four games.''

Detroit will host the top-seeded Sharks in Game 4 on Thursday night in their Western Conference semifinal, hoping to give itself a chance to join a select group.

The Toronto Maple Leafs, in the 1942 finals against Detroit, and the New York Islanders, in the 1975 quarterfinals against Pittsburgh, are the only teams in NHL history to win a series after trailing 0-3.

``That's how hard it is to do,'' Red Wings coach Mike Babcock said. ``And yet, I figure every 33 years or so you've got to be due. It must be our turn.''

The Sharks look like they're finally taking their turn in the playoffs, moving within a game of making it to the conference finals for first time since 2004 when the franchise made its longest run. They've won each of the first three games of the series by a score of 4-3, including Tuesday's overtime victory after trailing by two goals with 13 minutes left in regulation. Their winning streak stands at six games.

San Jose goaltender Evgeni Nabokov acknowledged being surprised to have Detroit on the brink of elimination already.

``But it's not like we won three games by mistake,'' he said. He also said the Red Wings, the two-time defending Western Conference champions, were ``the worst team'' to have down 3-0.

``If there is going to be a team, they could be the team the team that could come back,'' Nabokov said.

San Jose center Manny Malhotra said he and his teammates are like the Red Wings, focusing only on the next game.

``Our mindset is, we don't have four games left,'' Malhotra said. ``We know they're a desperate, experienced and talented team, and we're going to be determined to match their intensity and sense of urgency.''

The Sharks have taken control of the second-round series in large part because Nabokov has been more effective than rookie Jimmy Howard. They have also dominated late, rallying from a deficit in the final period of the past two games.

Now, they want to slam the door on Detroit's bid to advance to the conference finals for a fourth straight year.

``We have to compete like it's the start of the series,'' Sharks defenseman Rob Blake said. ``This will be their best game. They have a great tradition and they'll play to it.''

If Detroit can figure out a way to win Game 4, it might take some comfort in knowing Montreal rallied from a 3-1 deficit to eliminate Washington this postseason and the Capitals came back to beat the New York Rangers after losing three of the first four games last year in the playoffs.

``History can be made, right? It's happened before,'' said forward Kris Draper, who has helped Detroit win four Stanley Cups since 1997. ``Has it happened a lot? No. Have teams done it? Yes.

``We've done a lot of things in the postseason to be proud of. To look at the big picture, it's tough and everything is against us. But we have such a great group in here that we want to keep going.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2010, 07:55 PM

Playoff Results - Second Round

Second Round Results

Favorites have gone 7-5
Home teams have gone 6-6
The 'over' is 8-2-2 after 12 games
Favorites that have won are 3-4 on the puck-line
First Round|

Home Visitor Time/Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Thu Apr 29, 2010
Sharks (-145) Red Wings 4-3 FAVORITE OVER 5.5

Fri Apr 30, 2010
Penguins (-270) Canadiens 6-3 FAVORITE OVER 5.5

Sat May 1, 2010
Bruins (-155) Flyers 5-4 (OT) FAVORITE OVER 5
Blackhawks Canucks (+145) 5-1 UNDERDOG OVER 5.5

Sun May 2, 2010
Penguins Canadiens (+240) 3-1 UNDERDOG UNDER 5.5
Sharks (-135) Red Wings 4-3 FAVORITE OVER 5.5

Mon May 3, 2010
Bruins (-145) Flyers 3-2 FAVORITE PUSH 5
Blackhawks (-165) Canucks 4-2 FAVORITE OVER 5.5

Tue May 4, 2010
Canadiens Penguins (-165) 2-0 FAVORITE UNDER 5.5
Red Wings Sharks (+140) 4-3 (OT) UNDERDOG OVER 5.5

Wed May 5, 2010
Flyers Bruins (+140) 4-1 UNDERDOG PUSH 5
Canucks Blackhawks (+115) 5-2 UNDERDOG OVER 6

Thu May 6, 2010
Canadiens Penguins 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Red Wings Sharks 7:30 p.m. EDT - -

Fri May 7, 2010
Flyers Bruins 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Canucks Blackhawks 9:30 p.m. EDT - -

Sat May 8, 2010
Penguins Canadiens 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Sharks Red Wings 10:00 p.m. EDT - -

Sun May 9, 2010
Blackhawks Canucks 8:00 p.m. EDT - -

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2010, 07:57 PM

Playoff Results - Second Round

Second Round Results

Home teams are 6-1
Favorites are 6-1 straight up
Favorites are 5-2 against the spread
The 'over/under' tally is 5-2

Home Visitor Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Saturday May 1, 2010
Cleveland (-7.5) Boston 101-93 FAVORITE OVER 191.5

Sunday May 2, 2010
L.A. Lakers (-7) Utah 104-99 UNDERDOG OVER 198

Monday May 3, 2010
Cleveland Boston (+6, +250) 104-86 UNDERDOG UNDER 192.5
Phoenix (-4.5) San Antonio 111-102 FAVORITE OVER 205

Tuesday May 4, 2010
Orlando (-9) Atlanta 114-71 FAVORITE UNDER 192.5
L.A. Lakers (-6) Utah 111-103 FAVORITE OVER 199

Wednesday May 5, 2010
Phoenix (-3) San Antonio 110-102 FAVORITE OVER 206

Thursday May 6, 2010
Orlando Atlanta

Friday May 7, 2010
Boston Cleveland
San Antonio Phoenix

Saturday May 8, 2010
Atlanta Orlando
Utah L.A. Lakers

Sunday May 9, 2010
Boston Cleveland
San Antonio Phoenix

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The Bum's Thursday's Best Bets MLB-NBA-NHL !

The Bum's Thursday's Best Bets MLB-NBA-NHL !

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