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**StarDust Bum** · 05-05-2010, 12:34 AM

Wednesday Matinees

The Wednesday afternoon baseball card provides bettors with five games to wager on, including three division battles. The Mets and Reds close out a three-game set in Cincinnati, while the Twins and Tigers continue to battle atop the AL Central at Comerica Park. We'll begin in northern Ohio as the surprising Jays look to capture another series against the Indians.

Blue Jays at Indians - 12:05 PM EST

Toronto has become the best power team in all of baseball by leading the league with 41 homers. Many people believed the loss of Roy Halladay would destroy this Blue Jays team, but Toronto's offense has picked things up as it goes for a matinee win at Cleveland.

Fausto Carmona (3-1, 4.05 ERA) is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing six earned runs in six innings of a 9-3 home setback to the Twins. The inconsistent Carmona actually put up solid numbers prior to the meltdown to Minnesota by compiling four quality starts in his four outings. Cleveland is a perfect 3-0 in Carmona's three career starts against Toronto, including a complete-game, five-hitter at home in May 2008.

The Jays send out former reliever Brandon Morrow (2-2, 5.46 ERA), who has steadily improved over his last few starts. The ex-Mariners righty gave up 12 earned runs in his first two outings, but Morrow has allowed just five earned runs in his last three starts, including wins over the Royals and A's. Morrow has struck out 25 batters his previous three outings, as the Indians' offense has compiled the third-most strikeouts in the American League.

The Tribe has scored three runs or less in six of the last eight games, all losses. In the two games in which Cleveland has put up more than three runs, the Indians beat the Twins and Angels. Cleveland is a dreadful 2-14 scoring three runs or fewer, while going 8-1 when plating at least four runs.

Mets at Reds - 12:35 PM EST

New York and Cincinnati finish off a three-game series at the Great American Ballpark with two pitchers going in opposite directions taking the hill. Jonathon Niese (1-2, 3.10 ERA) is coming off three impressive starts, while Johnny Cueto (1-1, 5.33 ERA) has delivered just one quality outing this season.

Niese turned in the best performance of his career against the Phillies his last time out, limiting the NL Champs to four hits and one earned run in seven innings of work as the Mets cruised to a 9-1 win. The southpaw has turned into a strong 'under' play this season by finishing 'under' the total in four of five starts.

Cueto has been unable to duplicate the hot start of 2009, in which the Reds' righty began 4-1. The 24-year old finally won his first game of 2010 by tossing five innings of a 3-2 road victory at St. Louis. Cueto has not lasted past the sixth inning in any of his first five starts, while not faring well against the Mets in his career, compiling an 0-3 lifetime mark.

The Mets are 6-3 in day games this season, while going 'under' the total six times. On the flip side, the Reds are just 3-6 during matinees, but have been a consistent 'under' team with a 5-1-3 mark to the 'under.'

Orioles at Yankees - 1:05 PM EST

The Bombers look for their sixth win in seven games as they conclude their series with Baltimore. The O's have had a healthy dose of division rivals recently with the last 11 contests coming against the Yankees and Red Sox. Baltimore has played better following a 2-16 start by going 5-3 the last eight games.

Andy Pettitte (3-0, 2.12 ERA) has quietly dominated opponents this season, as the Yanks have won all five starts made by the veteran lefty. New York is 8-1 the last nine at home when Pettitte starts with the lone loss coming to these Orioles last September as $3.00 'chalk.' Pettitte is coming off his first non-quality outing of the season (6 IP, 4 ER) as the Yanks came back to beat the White Sox, 6-4.

The O's send out righty David Hernandez (0-3, 4.55 ERA), who looks for his first victory since August 11, 2008 against Oakland. Baltimore picked up a pair of victories over Boston in which Hernandez started, but the 24-year old received a no-decision each time. Hernandez faced the Yanks twice last season, picking up a pair of no-decisions as Baltimore lost each contest.

The Yanks are 8-2 the last ten at home against the Orioles, while Baltimore has finished 'under' the total in 10 of 14 games on the highway.

Tigers at Twins - 1:10 PM EST

The top two teams in the AL Central won't see each other again until the end of June at Target Field following Wednesday's matchup. The Twins grabbed the opener in convincing fashion, 10-4, snapping Detroit's five-game winning streak. A pair of pitchers who have had their ups and downs take the mound as Kevin Slowey opposes Rick Porcello.

Slowey (3-2, 2.77 ERA) has lasted past the sixth inning just once in five starts this season, while coming off his third victory over the Indians last Friday. Minnesota is 4-1 in Slowey's five career starts against Detroit, despite the righty getting lit up by the Tigers at home last July in an 11-9 loss (3 IP, 6 ER). Slowey's day numbers this season (0-2, 6.10 ERA) have been dreadful compared to his night stats (3-0, 2.45 ERA).

Porcello (2-2, 8.03 ERA) has struggled over the last three starts, allowing 17 earned runs and 26 hits in 13.2 innings, while Detroit is 1-2 in this stretch. The right-hander hasn't seen much success against the Twins in his young career, as the Tigers are 1-4 in Porcello's five lifetime starts in this series. Three of those losses did come at the Metrodome, so pitching at Target Field may benefit Porcello.

The Tigers are 5-0-1 to the 'over' the last six away games, while going 7-1 in series finales this season. The Twins, who continue to play without MVP Joe Mauer, are just 3-5 in the final game of a series in 2010, including home losses as huge favorites against the Indians and Royals.

**BettorsChat** · 05-05-2010, 03:01 AM

gl Stardust

**tech fan** · 05-05-2010, 08:21 AM

Gl buddy

**StarDust Bum** · 05-05-2010, 06:07 PM

MLB Evening Games:

Atlanta - 7:05 PM ET Washington +149 500 *****
Washington - Under 8 500

Chi. Cubs - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +142 500
Pittsburgh - Under 9 500

St. Louis - 7:05 PM ET St. Louis -118 500
Philadelphia - Under 10 500

LA Angels - 7:10 PM ET LA Angels +152 500 *****
Boston - Under 9.5 500

San Francisco - 7:10 PM ET San Francisco -119 500
Florida - Under 8.5 500

Arizona - 8:05 PM ET Houston -104 500
Houston - Over 9 500

Kansas City - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City +135 500 *****
Chi. White Sox - Over 9 500

Colorado - 10:05 PM ET Colorado +136 500 *****
San Diego - Over 7 500

Tampa Bay - 10:10 PM ET Seattle -108 500
Seattle - Over 6.5 500

Milwaukee - 10:10 PM ET Milwaukee +153 500 *****
LA Dodgers - Over 9 500

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
05/04/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
05/03/10 0-4-0 0.00% -2200 Detail
05/02/10 4-0-0 100.00% +2000 Detail
05/01/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
Totals 7-7-0 50.00% -350

Wednesday, May 5Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Antonio - 9:00 PM ET San Antonio +2.5 500
Phoenix - Over 205 500

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
05/04/10 2-2-0 50.00% +180 Detail
05/03/10 3-0-1 100.00% +1500 Detail
05/02/10 3-1-0 75.00% +1720 Detail
05/01/10 2-2-0 50.00% +170 Detail
Totals 10-5-1 66.67% +3570

Wednesday, May 5Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:00 PM ET Boston +135 500 *****
Philadelphia - Under 5 500 *****

Chicago - 9:30 PM ET Vancouver -125 500 *****
Vancouver - Under 6 500 *****

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Good Luck Gang !

**StarDust Bum** · 05-05-2010, 06:46 PM

San Antonio must win tempo to even series

This series without question is the clash wills and desire to play different games. Phoenix won and covered the series opener 111-102 as 4.5-point favorites because they were able to control the pace of the game for longer periods of time than San Antonio. The Spurs made a couple of incredible runs by playing their preferred style, but ultimately it wasn’t enough and they were defeated.

Steve Nash just abused George Hill in the first half, making the second year guard look like a second year player being schooled. Nash used change of pace dribbles, went between his legs on strong cross-over moves and left Hill dumbfounded with one-step three-pointers and one-handed floaters.

This forced Gregg Popovich to use Tony Parker on Nash, which worked for the most part in slowing Nash down as scorer, but he was still able to find the open man for 10 assists to compliment his 33 points.

“He ran it down our throat," Spurs coach Popovich said.

Defining the Spurs weakness is relatively simple. When San Antonio plays against teams that push the pace, taking a large volume of shots and are winning club, they struggle.

Forget about the Golden State’s, Sacramento’s and Indiana’s of the world that take a vast number of attempts because their players are more interested in stats than winning, look for quality.

This season the Spurs are 3-9 and 2-10 ATS versus Phoenix, Denver and Utah, all teams that accelerate pace.

Why do they struggle, start with Tim Duncan. The future Hall of Famer has turned that odometer over several times in his 13 years in the league and played a record low 31.3 minutes per game this season. Duncan can no longer run up down the floor effortlessly with his stiff and sore knees and his lateral quickness is virtually gone.

The Spurs do not have defensive stoppers like Bruce Bowen and usable big men like they had in the past. Nazr Mohammed and Rasho Nesterovic could clog the lane and block shots from recent championship teams.

This is bore out with San Antonio being 1-9 ATS in road games when both teams score 98 or more points this season. They were only 4-4 SU and ATS against average teams like Memphis and Houston who preferred to play at faster clip.

This Spurs team has to ride the brake, maximizing points per possession while squeezing the life out of opponent like they did against Dallas.
That means running the offense thru Duncan and Manu Ginobili with Tony Parker and Richard Jefferson making themselves available.

Popovich’s team is a 2.5-point underdog with total of 205.5 at Sportsbook.com. The black-clad Spurs are 11-24 ATS revenging a road loss and have to gain control early and force more contested three-point attempts by Phoenix. This club does not have ability to get in shooting match behind the arc (4-19 in Game 1) and is better suited to play under control with Duncan and teammates running at their own pace instead of chasing opponents.

This TNT telecast starts at 9:00 Eastern and San Antonio is 16-5 UNDER as a road underdog of three points or less.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-05-2010, 06:47 PM

NL Division leaders do battle again

The Philadelphia Phillies announced earlier this week that Kyle Kendrick will stay in the rotation despite struggling mightily in four of his five starts. Facing the St. Louis Cardinals might give him a good chance to make that decision look like a wise one. Kendrick looks to shake off his early issues and improve to 4-0 against the Cardinals on Wednesday night at Citizens Bank Park as the two NL division leaders continue their four-game series.

Kendrick (0-1, 7.61 ERA, 1.648 WHIP) has one outstanding start to his credit, pitching eight shutout innings at Atlanta on April 20, but his other four have been rather forgettable. The right-hander has an 11.49 ERA in those games, yielding six homers in 15 2/3 innings.

He gave up four runs on three homers over five innings Friday in a 9-1 loss to the New York Mets, but on Sunday, manager Charlie Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee said they don’t plan to remove Kendrick from the rotation.

“You’ve got somebody down in (Triple-A) Lehigh who’s pitching better right now?” Dubee told the Phillies’ official website. “Right now, we think Kyle will get straightened out. And I don’t know we have a whole lot of other candidates. We need Kyle to step up. We need him to be more efficient.” Off last night’s victory, Kendrick and the Phils are 20-4 OVER after a win.

Keeping him in to face the Cardinals (18-9, +6.1 units) might prove to be a good move. Kendrick is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts versus St. Louis - none since June 2008 - and he’s 9-2 lifetime against the NL Central leaders.

Matt Holliday, Ryan Ludwick and Albert Pujols are a combined 3 for 22 against Kendrick, though Holliday and Ludwick have taken him deep.

It was an extra-inning homer that ended Tuesday’s pitcher’s duel and allowed Philadelphia (15-11, +0.2) to even the series at one. After a fan ran on the Citizens Bank Park field for a second straight game and St. Louis tied the score at 1-all in the ninth, Carlos Ruiz’s leadoff blast in the bottom of the 10th gave the Phillies a 2-1 win.

“It’s one of those games that’s tough to lose,” manager Tony La Russa told the Cardinals’ official website, “but I have no complaints about our effort and a lot of our execution, too, we were really good.” St. Louis is 11-2 in road games revenging a one run loss.

Philadelphia was held to four hits over eight innings against Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright, who delivered the rotation’s 13th consecutive quality start and extended the starting staff’s streak without allowing a homer to 21 games spanning 143 2/3 innings. St. Louis hasn’t had 14 straight quality starts since May 20-June 6, 1973, when the staff was led by Bob Gibson.

Brad Penny (3-1, 1.56, 1.183) may not be joining Gibson in the Hall of Fame, but the right-hander has certainly done his part to make the Cardinals’ rotation the best in baseball. After allowing three earned runs in his first four starts, though, Penny struggled with his control Friday against Cincinnati. He walked five and allowed eight hits and three runs over six innings in a 3-2 loss to the Reds.

“I’ve got to make better pitches,” said Penny, whose 4-0 with a 2.13 ERA in his last five starts against the Phillies. “I wasn’t keeping the ball down.” He is 43-18 UNDER in road contests vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game in his career. (Team's Record)

Pujols has hit safely in nine straight games after doubling Tuesday, but he’s not the only St. Louis hitter with a streak going. Rookie third baseman David Freese, the NL player of the week, is 16 for 32 with three homers and 14 RBIs during his eight-game streak.

Sportsbook.com has St. Louis as -115 money line favorites with total at Ov10 for this ESPN telecast that has 7:00 Eastern start time. The Redbirds have won seven of last eight as favorites and are 7-1 off a loss in 2010.
The Phillies appreciate solid pitching and are 70-39 after permitting two runs or less over the last three seasons and are 8-1 at home against right-hand starters. Philadelphia will try to continue to have the upper hand over the Cardinals, seeking eighth win in last 10 tries.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-05-2010, 06:48 PM

Philadelphia and Vancouver anxious to be home

The Flyers and Canucks gladly return home. Philadelphia has tennis in mind tonight trying to hold serve in their rink and get back into series. Vancouver earned the always desired split on the road in the first two contests, however it was the manner in which it happened that left them unfulfilled. Two home teams with the same thought process, protect home ice.

Boston at Philadelphia 7:00E VERSUS

It’s often funny how life works, especially if you are goalie Brian Boucher of Philadelphia. Boucher has been around the NHL for a number of years and was in goal in his first go-round with the Flyers a decade ago when they trailed Pittsburgh 0-2 in playoff series. Thanks in part to some of his heroics, Philadelphia rallied and overcame the deficit for just the second time in their history. Boucher will be called on again 10 years later to perform the same miracle.

“We were pretty down going to Pittsburgh, feeling pretty bad about ourselves,” Boucher said. “We had not played well the first two games. We’re at home here. That’s one of the advantages. To be honest, we could probably play a bit better.”

The Flyers will look to achieve flying start on home ice and get back into this Eastern semi-final and have five of last six at Wachovia Center, including four in a row.

Philly hasn’t played poorly, just lacking that something extra that wins games.

“It’s not that we’ve played bad, but just play with more desperation than we’ve shown the last two games,” forward Danny Briere said. “We need a little bit more of the way we played in the first round against Jersey, kind of take their will away. I think we can do a better job of that.”

Sportsbook.com has the Flyers as -155 money line favorites with total at Ov5; however they are just 5-13 revenging consecutive losses to same foe in favorite’s role. Philly is 13-3 UNDER off a one goal defeat.

Boston comes in brimming with confidence with the offense clicking, having score 12 goals in last three contests, the most since they totaled 14 in three games way back on Dec. 5-12. The Bruins are 40-16 having won three of four and are 14-5 UNDER as visitors with three or more straight wins.

Chicago at Vancouver 9:30E VERSUS

The Canucks waylaid Chicago 5-1 in the opening contest of the series and grabbed a 2-0 lead in Game 2 in the Windy City, but left their killer instinct in the locker room and let the Blackhawks off the hook.

Vancouver had only 15 shots in the final 55 minutes (zero in two critical third period power play chances), as Chicago scored the last four goals of the contest and evened the series.

Never has a road split felt so hollow. The Canucks have ghosts in their closets and need to get past these events in order to win the series. Last season they lost an eerily similar game to Chicago in the fourth game of the playoffs and never recovered, losing in six.

We’re not even thinking like that right now,” Canucks forward Ryan Kesler said. “Game 4 last year is out of our mind. You guys are acting like it’s over. It’s not over by any means. We lost a game. So what? We could have been up 2-0. So what?”

Though Kesler comes off a little testy, he has to feel good about being back at the GM Place where Vancouver is 32-12 this campaign.

The Canucks top center Henrik Sedin was asked what his team learned from Monday’s fallout. “We played on the outside too much,” Sedin said. “We didn’t create enough offensively.” His club is 13-4 off a road loss by two goals or more this season.

Chicago’s advantage coming into the series was bigger, stronger forwards against Vancouver’s ordinary defense and with Ben Eager and Adam Burish back in the lineup (missed Game 1 with lingering ailments) the Hawks were more aggressive in offensive end and won the physical battle.

“They put their meat in the lineup and they did the job,” defenseman Shane O’Brien of Vancouver said. “Their guys are going hard to the net, snowing (Luongo), bumping him, slashing him. We’ve got to play a lot meaner, a whole lot grittier.

“It’s playoff time. I was upset with the way we kind of didn’t respond physically and emotionally. There has been a lot of talk about the fine line of not scrumming up, this and that. But at the end of the day, we’re playing for the Stanley Cup here. You’ve got to push back. Show them that you want it.”

Vancouver is -150 ML pick and is 11-2 after conceding two or more goals in third period. With total at Ov6, the Canucks are 6-0 OVER at home in the second round of the playoffs.

Chicago will attempt to use the momentum they created and are 16-3 after lighting the lamp four or more times at the United Center.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-05-2010, 06:49 PM

Spotting over and under valued starting pitchers

Most sports handicapping strategy focuses on a key fundamental, getting value for your wager. You don’t want to overpay for certain teams or pitchers and you’d like to take advantage of under-priced opportunities whenever possible. It is probably more important in baseball than any other sport, if for no reason than because oddsmakers’ prices are built on money lines, meaning no pointspreads to play the great equalizer. With that in mind, I’ve prepared a brief article on getting the most for your starting pitchers. This is determined from a combination of WHIP and the average money line bettors pay for each starter. As you’ll see from the chart at the bottom of the article, some pitchers have been badly overrated in the early going, while others have been of great value.

Before getting into the actual results, I’ll explain the foundation for the study. Last week it occurred to me in handicapping one particular baseball evening’s games that some pitchers are priced upon nothing more than reputation. Roy Halladay & C.C. Sabathia are deservedly pitching as -200 or more favorites each time out. These pitchers’ stats in the early going merit these types of prices. However, there are other starters who pitch for lesser teams than the defending World Series combatants that could realistically command similar figures but don’t simply because of the teams they are on. It is of course quite the opposite on the underdog lines. That said, in general I figured there should be a certain price that a bettor should expect to pay for a certain level pitcher. I thought what better way to find this out by comparing key stats of pitchers to the money lines associated with them.

The Downloadable Chart shows all of the pitchers that started a game in the first full month of the baseball (through 5/3/10). For each pitcher, you’ll find their team’s record in their starts, the average money line they have pitched too, their WHIP & other key stats, plus the key number, their EXPECTED WHIP based upon their Average Money Line. This is the number I use specifically to determine whether or not a pitcher is being over- or under-valued.

In case anyone would like to use the median's as a guideline for further judging pitchers, the average WHIP at this point in the season for a starting pitcher is 1.477, and the average money line is -103.

Naturally there are extenuating circumstances in some cases as to why a pitcher’s WHIP stats might not correlate with their Average Money Line. I will touch upon that some as I go through the results. After all, not every pitcher is backed by the Rays’ or Yankees’ hitting lineup, and not every pitcher has a bullpen behind him that can competently close out games for him after he departs. However, all other things considered, there should be an expectation of what you should or shouldn’t pay to back a pitcher with certain statistical benchmarks. Now to the results.

At the top of the list of under-valued pitchers who have started more than one game this season, you will find Livan Hernandez of the Washington Nationals. He has enjoyed a phenomenal start to the 2010 campaign, boasting a WHIP of 0.871 after four starts. On average, he has been a money line dog of about +165 in each of his starts and the Nationals have won three of them. Brett Cecil of Toronto, and Doug Fister of Seattle are two relatively unknown pitchers that have mowed down hitters in the early going. Each of those guys has yet to command the respect from oddsmakers either, making them “diamonds in the rough”. A pitcher who has seen the hardest of “hard luck” has been Jeremy Guthrie of Baltimore. His WHIP was a very respectable 1.248 in his first six starts but his team had scored just 2.3 RPG in losing all six games. If Guthrie starts getting support, watch out. The same goes for Zack Greinke, who gets more respect than Guthrie by oddsmakers and has produced with a 0.983 WHIP. Again, unfortunately, his team hasn’t supported his efforts.

Some more names to keep an eye on are veterans Kyle Davies (KC), Barry Zito (SF), and Kevin Millwood (Tex). All three have pitched very well in the first month, but their reputations don’t command heavy Money Lines. A few younger pitchers are also starting to garner some attention with their big stats, namely Ricky Romero (Tor), Ian Kennedy (Ari), and Jamie Garcia (StL). Despite boasting great numbers to date, oddsmakers are slow to react in many cases, and these pitchers should still be of solid value in the upcoming weeks.

You might be surprised to see that some of the most respected pitchers enjoying fabulous starts to the season are not commanding real high prices. At the head of that list is defending N.L. Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, who despite his 0.821 WHIP and 43 strikeouts in 35+ innings, has only been an average money line favorite of about -156, a low number by normal standards. Phil Hughes of the Yankees (-171 ML favorite, 0.880 WHIP), and Ubaldo Jimenez (-162 ML favorite, 1.016 WHIP) are other dominant pitchers who are actually still being undervalued by those setting the prices.

The bottom of the chart reads like a list of “who not to bet on” for the immediate future. Apparently oddsmakers aren’t catching on to the fact that these pitchers are struggling, in some cases, horrendously. Look at some of the big names at the bottom, Jason Marquis (Was), Javier Vazquez (NYY), Clayton Kershaw (LAD), Carlos Zambrano (CHC), heck even Cole Hamels (Phi), and Josh Beckett (Bos) appear on that end of the chart.

Many of the pitchers at the bottom of the list are grouped by their struggling teams as you’ll find several Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Boston Red Sox in that area, as oddsmakers have yet to fully adjust to these teams’ slow starts.

Hopefully you haven’t found yourself backing pitchers like Charlie Morton of the Pittsburgh Pirates too often in the first month. His WHIP (2.173) and run support (1.40 RPG) has been dreadful in the early going, and you haven’t had much of a chance in any of his starts from the opening pitch.

Download this Pitcher Stats Chart to spot the pitchers that might be either due for a turnaround or those that are being overpriced and likely won’t turn it around.

Here are a few strategies I’ll be employing in the coming weeks to capitalize on this study:

1) Look for pitchers with a great strikeout to innings pitched ratio who aren’t being priced as heavy favorites regularly. This type of command can often win games without a whole lot of additional support.

2) Look for pitchers whose good or bad WHIP isn’t necessarily being reflected accurately in their teams won-lost record in their starts. These starters are being affected by luck in many cases, and luck has a tendency of changing, sometimes quickly.

3) Look for pitchers who are getting either a tremendously high amount of run support or very little. If this and their WHIP stats are not reflective of their won-lost record, change may be coming.

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