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**libertypl** · 05-04-2010, 06:11 PM

BOL tonite SDB.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-04-2010, 06:58 PM

Playoff Results - Second Round

Second Round Results

Favorites have gone 6-2
Home teams have gone 5-2
The 'over' is 6-1-1 after eight games
Favorites that have won are 2-4 on the puck-line

First Round|

Home Visitor Time/Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Thu Apr 29, 2010
Sharks (-145) Red Wings 4-3 FAVORITE OVER 5.5

Fri Apr 30, 2010
Penguins (-270) Canadiens 6-3 FAVORITE OVER 5.5

Sat May 1, 2010
Bruins (-155) Flyers 5-4 (OT) FAVORITE OVER 5
Blackhawks Canucks (+145) 5-1 UNDERDOG OVER 5.5

Sun May 2, 2010
Penguins Canadiens (+240) 3-1 UNDERDOG UNDER 5.5
Sharks (-135) Red Wings 4-3 FAVORITE OVER 5.5

Mon May 3, 2010
Bruins (-145) Flyers 3-2 FAVORITE PUSH 5
Blackhawks (-165) Canucks 4-2 FAVORITE OVER 5.5

Tue May 4, 2010
Canadiens Penguins 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Red Wings Sharks 7:30 p.m. EDT - -

Wed May 5, 2010
Flyers Bruins 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Canucks Blackhawks 9:30 p.m. EDT - -

Thu May 6, 2010
Canadiens Penguins 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Red Wings Sharks 7:30 p.m. EDT - -

Fri May 7, 2010
Flyers Bruins 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Canucks Blackhawks 9:30 p.m. EDT - -

Sat May 8, 2010
Penguins Canadiens 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Sharks Red Wings 10:00 p.m. EDT -

Sun May 9, 2010
Blackhawks Canucks 8:00 p.m. EDT - -

**StarDust Bum** · 05-04-2010, 07:00 PM

Magic-Hawks Outlook

**No. 1 Orlando Magic vs. No. 3 Atlanta Hawks**

Series Price: Orlando (-725) Atlanta (+525)

Series Format: Orlando 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Tuesday (5/4)
Game 2 - Thursday (5/6)
Game 3 - Saturday (5/8)
Game 4 - Monday (5/10)
Game 5 - Wednesday (5/12)
Game 6 - Friday (5/14)
Game 7 - Sunday (5/16)

Head to Head Comparisons
Team SU ATS Home Away O/U PPG DPPG
63-23 49-35 36-7 27-16 35-49 102.4 94.8
57-32 52-37 37-8 20-24 50-38 101.1 96.5

2009-10 Head to Head Meetings
Nov. 26, 2009 Orlando (+3.5) 93 at Atlanta 76 UNDER 199
Jan. 9, 20110 Orlando (-3.5) 113 vs. Atlanta 86 UNDER 196.5
Jan. 30, 2010 Orlando (-5.5) 104 vs. Atlanta 81 UNDER 195.5
Mar. 24, 2010 Atlanta (-1) 86 vs. Orlando 84 UNDER 196

Skinny: Orlando has been relaxing for more than a week after sweeping Charlotte, while Atlanta has already faced a pair of elimination games in just scraping past an injury-riddled Milwaukee squad. What does this mean? Well, it means the Magic are poised to make quick work of the Hawks, or perhaps – just perhaps – the close call with the Bucks has ‘turned a light on’ for Mike Woodson’s extremely talented, albeit inconsistent and undisciplined, club.

Stan Van Gundy’s squad dominated Atlanta in the first three head-to-head meetings of the regular season. Dwight Howard enjoys a height advantage over the Hawks’ undersized Al Horford, who is a natural power forward that plays center. Howard has been able to get Horford in foul trouble, forcing Woodson to turn to Zaza Pachulia. Jason Collins, a veteran center who hasn’t played many minutes this year, is probably best suited to guard Howard so don’t be surprised to see him getting more minutes in this series.

Howard didn’t play much more than 20 minutes in a 12-point, seven-rebound effort in a 113-81 win over the Hawks. However, in the three other regular-season meetings, the former high school star in the Atlanta area had the following numbers: 22 points and 17 rebounds, 19 points and 24 boards and 31 and 19. Meanwhile, Horford averaged just 8.0 points and 7.3 boards against the Magic. The two-time national champion at the University of Florida averaged 14.2 PPG and 9.9 RPG during the regular season.

If Woodson elects to double Howard, this could result in open looks from beyond the arc for one of the NBA’s best 3-point shooting teams. Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick, Vince Carter, Jason Williams and Mickael Pietrus can all shoot effectively from 3-point land.

Atlanta has all sorts of offensive weapons, but this is a team that’s often reluctant to make the extra pass (see Games 3-5 of the Milwaukee series). Another weakness is the defense, or lack thereof, from guards Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby. Crawford garnered Sixth Man of the Year honors and deservedly so, scoring 18 PPG off the Hawks’ bench. He had a game-high 22 points and six assists in Sunday’s Game 7 clincher, a 95-74 home win over the Bucks.

Joe Johnson had his moments, both good and bad, in the Milwaukee series. He fouled out for the first time this season in the Game 5 home loss. Then in Game 7, Johnson was 4-of-14 from the floor and scored just eight points. Without question, Johnson will have to have a huge series for Atlanta to be competitive. In addition, Johnson will have to impress others if he has any hopes of earning a ‘max contract’ when he becomes a free agent this offseason. (Remmber, JJ turned down a four-year, $60 million contract extension last summer.)

Gambling Notes: Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Orlando as a 7 ½-point favorite with a total of 192 ½ for Game 1. As of Monday afternoon, most betting shops had moved the Magic up to an 8 ½-point ‘chalk’ with the total at 192. Bettors can take the Hawks on the money line in the series opener for a monster plus-400 return (risk $100 to win $400).

Orlando has won six of its last seven head-to-head meetings against Atlanta, while the ‘under’ has cashed in each of the last five encounters.

The Hawks have gone 8-15 SU and 13-10 ATS as road underdogs this year. Game 1 represents their healthiest situation as underdogs since catching 8 ½ and nine points in spread covers against the Lakers and Celtics, respectively, back in November. They beat Boston outright 97-96 on Nov. 13 and lost a 118-110 decision to Phil Jackson’s squad.

Outlook: This depends on what Atlanta team shows up. If the Hawks share the basketball and play defense like they did in Games 6 and 7 against the Bucks, then they can make this interesting and push it to six and maybe even seven games. But we have no reason to believe that Atlanta can put together that sort of sustained effort. The Magic will most likely take care of business in five games.

Future Bets: You can still take the Magic to win it all for a plus-350 payout at BoDog.com (risk $100 to win $350). The Hawks now have 40/1 odds to win their first NBA title at BoDog. The series price is too expensive (minus-725) to go with Orlando against Atlanta (risk $725 just to win $100), so I recommend passing.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Orlando reserve guard Mickael Pietrus sprained his ankle during Sunday’s practice and is listed as “questionable” for Game 1. Pietrus averages 8.6 points per game and had 13 points in the Game 4 clincher at Charlotte.

--The Magic put the Bobcats to sleep by capturing a 99-90 win as a four-point road favorite on April 26. Vince Carter scored a team-high 21 points to lead five Orlando players in double figures. Howard fouled out and was limited to 23 minutes, prompting his comments about officials on his blog page that earned him a $35,000 fine from the league office. Howard had six points, six assists and 13 boards in the clincher at Charlotte.

--Horford set the tone for the Hawks in their Game 7 win over Milwaukee. He finished with 15 points, 15 rebounds, four assists and three blocked shots.

--Josh Smith spent most of his time in Games 3 and 4 at Milwaukee crying to the refs during just about every dead-ball situation. However, he played like a seasoned veteran and a dominant defender in the two elimination games. His shot-blocking presence defensively will be key against the Magic, not to mention his playmaking offensively. Smith is the one Atlanta player who can cause matchup problems for Orlando at both ends of the floor.

--This is the first time the Magic and Hawks have met in the playoffs.

--Atlanta has never advanced past the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Hawks nearly made the East finals in 1988, but Larry Bird’s 20-point fourth quarter offset Dominique Wilkins’ 47-point effort in Boston’s 118-116 Game 7 win at the Boston Garden.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-04-2010, 07:02 PM

Jazz at Lakers, Game 2

Los Angeles (62-27 straight up, 36-50-2 against the spread) will try to take a 2-0 series lead over Utah in tonight’s Game 2 at Staples Center for the Western Conference semifinals. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Lakers as six-point favorites with a total of 200 ½. As of early this morning, most betting shops still had the Lakers at six with the total reduced to 199 or 199 ½.

Bettors can back Utah (57-32 SU, 54-32-3 ATS) to win outright for a plus-250 return (risk $100 to win $250).

Although Phil Jackson’s team won Game 1 by a 104-99 count Sunday, it failed to hook up its backers as a seven-point home favorite. The 203 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 198 ½-point total.

Kobe Bryant scored a game-high 31 points, while Pau Gasol exploded for 25 points, 12 rebounds and five blocked shots. Deron Williams led the Jazz with 24 points and eight assists, while Carlos Boozer finished with 18 points and 12 boards.

L.A. gave up a double-digit lead and found itself trailing at crunch time. However, Bryant scored 11 of his 31 in the last four minutes of the final stanza to carry the Lakers into the win column.

Jerry Sloan’s squad worked a double-digit deficit down to a small number early in the fourth quarter, and then it took the lead to give the Hollywood crowd some tense moments at crunch time. But Kobe proved to be too much, getting a 3-point play the hard way with less than two minutes left thanks to a phantom call and a no-whistle when Bryant bulldozed his way through rookie Wesley Matthews (who seemed to take a clean charge) at the elbow.

Utah’s Andrei Kirilenko practiced with the team yesterday and told the media it was ’50-50’ whether or not he’d play in Game 2. Kirilenko has been out of the lineup in 22 of his team’s last 24 games due to a calf injury. He averages 11.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.2 blocked shots per game. Kirilenko hasn’t played in the postseason yet.

The ‘over’ has cashed in four consecutive Utah games and six of its last seven. For the season, the Jazz have watched the ‘over’ go 49-38-2 overall, 25-19-1 in its road assignments.

The Lakers, who have limped to an 18-25-2 spread record at home this season, have seen the ‘under’ go 49-39-1 overall, 25-19-1 in their home outings.

The ‘under’ has prevailed in seven of the last eight head-to-head meetings between these teams.

TNT will have television coverage at 10:35 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--LVSC opened Phoenix as a four-point ‘chalk’ for Wednesday’s Game 2 of its Western Conference semifinals series against San Antonio. As of late this morning, most spots had the Suns adjusted to 2 1/2-point favorites with a total of 205 ½.

--Steve Nash scored 33 points and dished out 11 assists to lead Phoenix to a 111-102 Game 1 win over the Spurs last night. Jason Richardson continued his stellar postseason play by scoring 27 points, while Amare Stoudemire went for 23 points and 13 rebounds.

--Gregg Popovich’s team trailed by 10 at intermission, only to rally back into the lead late in the third quarter. The Suns bounced back to build a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter, only to see the Spurs rally to within one on Manu Ginobli’s runner with 4:26 left. Nevertheless, Phoenix pulled away to get ahead of the number and cash tickets.

--Suns center Robin Lopez, who hasn’t played since May 26 due to a bulging disc in his back, did not play in Game 1 but does expect to eventually be available in this series.

--Check out the Celtics, who drilled Cleveland last night 104-86 as 6 1/2-point road underdogs in Game 2. With the series tied at 1-1, Game 3 will be Friday in Boston on ESPN. Most books are listing the C's as 1 1/2-point favorites with a total of 191.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-04-2010, 07:03 PM

Bigger is Better with Bettors

The first round of the playoffs, regardless of the sport, is always a busy time at Bodog’s online sportsbook. Whether we’re talking about the NFL, MLB, NHL or NBA odds, the same rule holds true: When there are lots of teams and lots of games, the betting is big.

When the second round starts, some bettors fall completely by the wayside. Their favorite team is done playing, they stop watching, and they stop wagering.

Granted, that’s not the entire story, because while some bettors drop out of the picture after the first round, many enter it. These bettors might’ve ignored the first round because the games weren’t as competitive, or perhaps they just like the added intensity that comes when it gets down to fewer teams.

At Bodog, we usually see a 6-7% increase in per-game NBA betting handle for spreads, totals and moneylines and about a 5% increase on props for each successive round of the playoffs. This trend typically holds up throughout the playoffs. Thus, by the championship series we are looking at a 23% increase in handle from the first series.

This of course is dependent on a variety of factors, including the team playing in the series and the TV schedule.

We’re extremely optimistic about the betting interest for the second round of the 2010 NBA playoffs. With stars like LeBron James and Kobe Byrant involved, plus the great rivalry (albeit fairly one-sided) between the Spurs and Suns, there are plenty of storylines. (By the way, Phoenix went off as -125 favorites to exorcise the demons and beat San Antonio. Home-court advantage could loom large in this one.) The Orlando-Atlanta matchup probably won’t capture a ton of casual bettors’ interests, but three out of four isn’t bad.

I should also mention a prop we’ve posted that might be of interest to fans of the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks: “Which team will LeBron James play for in his first game of the 2010-2011 season?”

What, you didn’t hear he was a free agent?

The Cavs are currently the 1/3 favorites to keep the King, followed by the Knicks at 3/1 and the New Jersey Nets at 10/1.

As far as futures are concerned, the Cavs are also the favorites to win it all this season. Cleveland’s getting 13/10 odds to win the 2010 NBA championship, followed by the Lakers at 11/4 and the Magic at 7/2. The long shots of the bunch? That would be the Atlanta Hawks at 40/1.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-04-2010, 07:07 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

Diamondbacks at Astros – The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since May 20, 2009 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Astros are 0-8 since October 04, 2009 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $870 when playing against.

Rangers at Athletics – The Rangers are 6-0 since June 25, 2009 when Scott Feldman starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $650

Brewers at Dodgers – The Brewers are 4-0 since September 03, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $640. The Brewers are 0-6 since July 20, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Dodgers are 0-5 since June 01, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $820 when playing against. The Dodgers are 0-5 since July 24, 2009 when Clayton Kershaw starts as a home favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $930 when playing against.

Blue Jays at Indians – The Blue Jays are 0-5 since August 12, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts on the road after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $500 when playing against. The Indians are 1-16 since September 05, 2009 as a dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $1470 when playing against.

Rays at Mariners – The Rays are 7-0 since July 10, 2009 as a 140+ favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $700. The Mariners are 0-5 since August 23, 2009 after an extra inning loss for a net profit of $630 when playing against.

Giants at Marlins – The Giants are 8-0 since June 12, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $800. The Marlins are 0-4 since July 16, 2009 at home after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Braves at Nationals – The Braves are 0-8 since April 14, 2009 after a win in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $1030 when playing against.

Rockies at Padres – The Rockies are 7-0 since May 18, 2009 as a dog when their starter went less than four innings in his last start for a net profit of $955.

Cardinals at Phillies – The Cardinals are 0-6 since April 14, 2009 on the road after a win in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $690 when playing against. The Phillies are 7-0 since May 15, 2009 after a loss in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings for a net profit of $775.

Cubs at Pirates – The Pirates are 0-10 since May 04, 2009 as a dog after a 5+ run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.

Angels at Red Sox – The Angels are 8-0 since June 23, 2009 after a 5+ run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $825. The Red Sox are 6-0 since September 09, 2009 after a 5+ run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600. The Red Sox are 0-5 since September 25, 2009 when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $645 when playing against.

Mets at Reds – The Reds are 9-0 since August 31, 2009 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $900.

Tigers at Twins – The Tigers are 0-7 since April 07, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Twins are 8-0 since July 18, 2009 after a win in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $835

Royals at White Sox – The Royals are 0-7 since August 29, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The White Sox are 0-4 since May 24, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $685 when playing against.

Orioles at Yankees – The Orioles are 0-8 since September 19, 2009 as a 170+ dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-7 since August 09, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Yankees are 9-0 since August 11, 2009 as a 200+ favorite when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $900

**StarDust Bum** · 05-04-2010, 07:08 PM

Tuesday's Tip Sheet

One month of the pro baseball season is in the books and Tampa Bay is sitting in the top spot. Tonight, the Rays begin a three-game set against Seattle. Along with this series starting, the National League also has some new sets beginning too.
Atlanta (11-14, -526) at Washington (13-12, +778)

Are the Braves back? After dropping nine straight games, Atlanta has rebounded with a three-game sweep over Houston this past weekend. The offense busted out of the slump with 21 runs and the pitching staff was brilliant too, surrendering just four runs in the victories. Kenshin Kawakami (0-4, 5.48 ERA) hopes to keep the momentum going on Tuesday when the team visits Washington. The Japanese product will also be looking for his first win of the season but he needs his lineup to help him. In his four starts, the Braves have put up a total of five runs. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in his appearances.

Washington has definitely opened up some eyes, especially with a winning record in May. The Nationals are tied for third place in the National League East despite losing two of three against the Marlins over the weekend. The pitching staff gave up 16 runs in the two losses, which hasn’t been a common theme for the Nats recently. Prior to those ugly performances, the staff allowed four runs or less in nine straight and the ‘under’ went 8-1 in those contests.

Livan Hernandez (3-1, 0.87 ERA) will try to bust Washington out of its mini-slump against Atlanta and he’s got a great shot to do so. The hefty hurler has only given up three earned runs in four starts, plus he’s gone at least seven innings in all four as well. The lone loss was a 2-0 setback to Colorado. The ‘under’ has gone 4-0 in his appearances this season.

The Braves went 10-8 against the Nationals last year and the ‘under’ posted a 10-7-1 mark in the 18 meetings.

Chicago Cubs (13-13, -370) at Pittsburgh (10-15, -147)

The Cubs have been up and down this season and a lot of their success has come from their bats and right now the hits are happening. After dropping three straight, Chicago finished up the weekend strong with three consecutive victories over Arizona behind an offense that put up 11, 7 and 10 runs. The only downside to taking three of four over the Diamondbacks was the pitching which surrendered 28 runs in the four-game set.

Chicago leans to Ryan Dempster (2-1, 2,78 ERA) tonight and he’s been unlucky this year with a pair of no decisions, and his only loss came by one run in his last start on Apr. 28 to Washington (2-3). The Cubs went 5-1 against the Pirates last season when Dempster was on the hill and three of the wins were at PNC Park.

Pittsburgh returns home from a 10-game road trip that watched the team go 3-7 and six of the losses came by three runs ore more. The offense struggled during this span, mustering up three runs or less in eight of the games. The Pirates hope lefthander Paul Maholm (1-2, 4.83 ERA) can stop the bleeding and he’ll be facing a Cubs lineup that has gone 4-3 against lefties this season. It should also be noted that Maholm has given up 23 earned runs in his last four appearances against the Cubs, and surprisingly Pitt has gone 2-2 in those games. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1.

The Pirates won five of their first six games at home but were trounced in their next three contests to Milwaukee (36-1). The ‘over’ has gone 4-3 in the nine games. Even though Pittsburgh’s offense is ranked third-worst (.234, 86 runs) in the majors, the team ERA (6.79) has helped keep the scoreboard operator very busy.

San Francisco (14-10, +297) at Florida (13-12, -74)

San Francisco heads to the East Coast for a quick six-game trip, which begins tonight in Florida. The Giants will lead with their ace, Tim Lincecum (4-0, 1.27 ERA), for the opener and “The Freak” has been lights out this season. He should be 5-0 but the bullpen blew a three-run lead in the team’s 7-6 extra inning loss to Philadelphia in his most recent start last Wednesday. What’s more impressive is that he’s gone 2-0 in his two road starts and he’s surrendered no earned runs in either game. Lincecum has only faced the Marlins once in his career and he pitched the Giants to a 3-2 win last season as a road favorite.

The Marlins snapped a three-game losing streak over the weekend with a pair of blowout wins over the Nationals (7-1, 9-3). The 16 runs came after the offense was held in check to six runs during the three straight setbacks. Anibel Sanchez (1-2, 4.32 ERA) doesn’t have numbers comparable to Lincecum but his last two starts (13 innings, 3 earned runs) were solid albeit against limited lineups in the Astros and Padres.

San Francisco’s offense started the season as a juggernaut, posting 68 runs in the first 11 games, which helped the ‘over’ go 7-4. Since that early explosion, the Giants have put up 40 runs in the last 13 contests and to no surprise, the ‘under’ has gone 12-1 during this span.

The Giants won four of seven against the Marlins last year, and total players should make a note that the ‘under’ went 5-1-1 in the regular season series.

Tampa Bay (18-7, +720) at Seattle (11-14, -429)

The Rays take to the road for nine straight encounters against the AL West, which starts tonight at Safeco Field against Seattle. Even though Tampa Bay went 2-2 over the weekend at home against Kansas City and its offense was held to five runs in the last three games, the club still has the best record and offense (147 runs) in the majors and a lot of the success has been away from home. Joe Maddon’s team has gone 9-1 on the road this year but keep in mind that the victories came against the Orioles (7-18), Red Sox (11-14) and White Sox (10-15).

Tampa Bay will send James Shields (3-0, 3.38 ERA) to the hill and the team has gone 4-1 in his starts this year, which includes three straight wins that was helped with run support of 26. Shields has faced the Mariners six times in his career and the Rays have gone 3-3 in those starts and five of the encounters were in Seattle. The ‘under’ has gone 5-1 during this span.

Seattle will counter with lefthander Justin Vargas (2-1, 3.60 ERA) and he’s pitched well in his last three outings (2-0, 5 earned runs), which has watched the team go 2-1 over that span. Vargas will need to have a good outing for Seattle since the team is mired in a 2-7 skid and the offense is averaging 3.7 runs per game during this drought, which includes a three-game sweep to the Rangers (0-2, 3-6, 1-3) over the weekend at home.

The Mariners won five of the eight battles against the Rays last season and the ‘over’ went 5-3 in the regular season series. Tampa owns a 4-3 ledger against southpaws this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-04-2010, 07:10 PM

Struggling Starters

The White Sox started 1-4 in the first five starts for Jake Peavy and his numbers were mostly awful. Peavy rebounded with a brilliant start Monday night against Kansas City however and he should be a viable pitcher for Chicago in most situations even though he is now away from the pitching friendly confines of Petco Park. There are several others veteran pitchers that have been big money losers in the first month of the season but that should not make them an automatic go-against pitcher in the coming weeks. On the contrary there can be great value on pitchers that get off to slow starts and then return to form with undervalued pricing. Here are a few examples of pitchers that may be worth a look in the coming weeks even through the early season numbers are poor.

Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals

The Royals are 0-5 in Meche starts this season and his 9.89 ERA certainly is troubling. While Meche has never been a dominant starter, he delivered consistently solid results from 2005 to 2008 including an ERA below 4.00 in each of his first two years in Kansas City. He never seemed fully healthy last year and the results were indicative of that, eventually being shut down in late August. It will probably be take some time for Meche to get on track so the slow start is not unexpected. His last two starts have actually featured a slight improvement even though the final lines have been disappointing. Meche was strong through four innings in his last two starts before running into trouble in the fifth inning and his endurance should improve in the coming weeks. With the terrible statistics Meche is likely to be heavy underdog in most match-ups and the Royals have been hitting well enough to justify backing this team in certain situations. Teammate Zack Greinke could also be on this list as the Royals are 1-5 in his first six starts but the 2009 Cy Young winner will still be given line respect and there will likely be little value on Greinke even though some wins are likely to come his way.

Tom Gorzelanny, Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are 1-4 in Gorzelanny starts in 2010 but the former Pittsburgh left-hander has pitched well. His 30-31 career record looks fairly impressive considering most of his starts came for bad Pittsburgh teams and he has not allowed more than two earned runs in any start this season. The Cubs finally gave Gorzelanny some support in his win over Arizona last weekend after scoring just seven runs in the first four games that he started. Gorzelanny has 27 strikeouts and just ten walks this season and while the Cubs are often overvalued, the early season losses should keep the prices in check. Gorzelanny has only allowed one home run all season and that came in a windy game at Wrigley so he could really emerge as a quality starter in this rotation while being a cheaper option when backing the Cubs compared with Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, or Randy Wells. Chicago’s offense appears to be back on track and this is a team that should still be considered a playoff threat.

Oliver Perez, New York Mets

Perez is generally as inconsistent as it gets but so far this year has pitched effectively despite the Mets being 1-4 in his starts. Perez has a poor reputation so he will often be an underdog but so far this year he has a solid 4.05 ERA and his walks have not been overly damaging. Perez has allowed just one home run in nearly 27 innings of work and his two road starts were his best outings of the season. After awful results in 2009, Perez appears to be on track for a season similar to 2007 and 2008 when he was a reliable option in the New York rotation. The Mets feature a great bullpen which should help seal up wins more often down the line. New York relievers have taken just five losses on the year, three of those decisions happened to be in games that Perez started. Opponents are hitting just .214 against the New York bullpen so Perez is likely to get better results down the road if he can continue to keep his team in games as he has so far this year.

David Bush, Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee has endured a very inconsistent season on offense but the Brewers should eventually average out as an above average scoring team. That should mean an improved record from the 10-15 mark early in May. The Brewers have only been out-scored by ten runs despite being five games below .500 so this is a team that could move up in the coming weeks. Pitching has been a big problem for Milwaukee so far this season but Dave Bush should not be lumped into that area of blame. Through his career Bush has mainly posted very respectable albeit average numbers. His 2009 numbers finished poorly as he never got back on track last season after missing nearly two months due to injury. Bush was an excellent pitcher early in 2009, featuring a quality start in seven of his first eight outings however so the potential is there. The Brewers are 1-4 in his starts this season and one outing was a poor one, but the other four starts

**StarDust Bum** · 05-04-2010, 08:04 PM

Orlando vs. Atlanta Series Betting Preview

The Magic and Hawks took opposite paths to this series matchup, Orlando using only four games, while Atlanta was pushed to full seven. However, this is what the Hawks wanted, they are out to prove they are an elite club deserving of being in the final four of NBA tournament, while this is another stop on the way for the team from central Florida, wanting to repeat as conference champions. What is set to occur, read on. Series price from Bookmaker.com.

(2) Orlando vs (3) Atlanta

If the Orlando Magic is a little tight to start Eastern Conference semi-final series with Atlanta don’t be shocked. Not tight like in nervous, more in the muscles being strained, as they haven’t played a NBA game since Mar. 26 in being the only NBA team to sweep opponent.

Though Orlando needed only four contests to send the Bobcats packing, a similar performance could send them home before Memorial Day. Dwight "Foul-On-U" Howard played roughly 54 percent of the time against Charlotte and it had nothing to do with being tired or the Magic being far ahead. Howard was continually in foul trouble and was WAY to easily frustrated by the antics of Bobcats big men and let his ego matter more than the team.

Though Atlanta coach Mike Woodson will not be mentioned in the same sentence with Larry Brown as astute NBA coaching legends, he will learn from what the Charlotte was able to do and work to have Howard take himself out of the game instead of being dominate force.

Vince Carter shot 35.7 percent in first playoff series with Orlando, that won’t cut it against Atlanta. Carter was too tentative and fell back into comfort zone of hoisting jumps shots. (Though he’s not that accomplished at making them) He has to be willing to put the ball on the deck, drive to the rim, get fouled and make free throws to create more wide open chances for jumpers.

If those two players perform up to capabilities, Orlando could have another short series, since Jameer Nelson, Matt Barnes and Mickael Pietrus were burying three’s like “Fito” with his bone in the backyard. In many ways Nelson is the key performer among this trio, as he can force Atlanta to sit Mike Bibby, since he is not a good defender any longer and make the Hawks use Jamal Crawford as more two-way player.

Orlando won three of four meetings with Southeast Division partner, with average margin of victory 22.1 points per game. The Magic come into this series 40-19 ATS having won 12 or more of their last 15 games.

Coach Woodson wants to believe his club learned something about itself and it will carry over into this next series. Realistically, except for fourth quarter collapse in Game 5, the Hawks have played very good defense for three games and started sharing the ball in the last six quarters.

Atlanta players don’t have to run isolations time after time to score, they get much better offensive flow by passing, cutting and finding open shooters. Though Milwaukee lacked the height to compete with the Hawks inside, the increased offensive movement made them a much better offensive rebounding team which will be a requirement in this series, especially if it leads to fouls on Howard.

On defense, Atlanta was able to pressure the Bucks guards with greater persistence and they will have to have that same gumption with all the Orlando shooters.

To start the series, the better strategy for the Hawks is to man-up the Magic and keep in contact with their sharp-shooters and hope Al Horford can force Howard out to around 10 feet and keep him away from the rim. What hurts Atlanta is when they allow dribble penetration, setting up Howard for easy dunks because of help defense and three-point marksmen are left alone to hit the bulls-eye.

Joe Johnson and Crawford have to be the offensive catalysts as scorers and facilitators. Horford, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams are much better players when they receive passes in their comfort zone.

"We're confident," Hawks center Horford said. "I think we've figured out if we play hard defensively we always give ourselves a chance to win games. And we just have to come out and match their intensity. They have a lot of good shooters, they have Dwight inside. It's going to be a challenge... but we're excited." Atlanta is 5-18 ATS on the road in all playoff games.

Atlanta will have no better chance to grab the upper hand feeding off the momentum of series win and Orlando being rusty for first contest. The Hawks players, at least outwardly believe they can win two series for the first time in franchise history since moving to Atlanta in 1968. That means playing at a level they are not accustomed to and doing whatever it takes. From talent perspective, they could pull the upset, but Orlando is a bad matchup for them with their style (4-8 SU & ATS) and ultimately prevails.

Pick- Orlando (-800) in six over Atlanta (+600)

**StarDust Bum** · 05-04-2010, 08:05 PM

Utah could come up short again in L.A.

A snapshot is all that it takes to see one of the Utah Jazz problems against the Lakers. 7‘0 Andrew Bynum, 7’0 Pau Gasol and 6’10 Lamar Odom compared to 6’9 Carlos Boozer, 6’8 Paul Milsap and now occasionally used due to injury 7’0 Kosta Koufas. That is a big conundrum for Jerry Sloan and no amount of coaching is going to make his team taller or Los Angeles shorter.

This is where the real issue is for Utah. Most NBA teams look to create mismatches and exploit opponent’s defensive weaknesses. The Jazz offense is about five players executing off of screens and cuts and finding good looks at the bucket.

Against most of the teams in the NBA, this offense is perfect (as well as frustrating) because they don’t want to fight thru screens, chase players defensively (especially for 20+ seconds) and Utah can run a weakside layup drill similar to what they did against Denver in the first round.

Because of the Lakers size, they don’t drift away from the basket often and clog up the precise cuts the Jazz players make. In other words, Utah runs play to perfection and C.J. Miles receives perfect pass cutting to the rim having lost his defender and there is Gasol waiting for him, leaving Miles with few good options.

This is where Mehmet Okur would be a positive, since at 6’11 he could make enough outside shots to draw Gasol away from the lane not leaving two giants in the paint.

The Jazz might be 20-6 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season, but their job is to win and with the Lakers ability to put 6’7 Ron Artest on 6’3 Deron Williams, that further complicates what Utah wants to do.

Because of injury, coach Sloan has had to be creative with his bench and started the fourth quarter of Game 1 with Ronnie Price, Kyle Korver, Miles, Millsap and Koufos and actually outscored Los Angeles in that stretch 12-1.

Utah is 18-4 ATS off a road loss and could get a boost if Andrei Kirilenko returns Tuesday (Now listed as Out). He can make Kobe Bryant work harder because of his defensive skills and is a clever passer.

The Jazz are 5.5-point underdogs at Bookmaker.com largely because Phil Jackson can’t find any points off the bench. From Odom, to Jordan Farmar to Shannon Brown, the answer has been almost zilch. This helps keep the total down to 199 and Utah is 11-3 ATS in a road games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season.

This is the second contest on TNT this evening and the undersized Jazz are 15-5 OVER as visitors after playing a game as an underdog over the last two seasons.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-04-2010, 08:06 PM

MLB Systems that circle the bases

It’s the first full week of May baseball action and on this Tuesday a number of high quality baseball systems standout. A number of underdogs are really up against solid situations that in the past have been very profitable by playing against them. Will this happen again, read on and make your own decisions. All money lines from Bookmaker.com.

Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees 7:05E

The Orioles swept Boston over the weekend, but reality came calling in the form of Yankee pinstripes, ending Baltimore’s brief euphoria. The O’s are 10th in the American League in batting at .246 and they will face A.J. Burnett (3-0, 2.43 ERA) as +220 money line underdogs. Here we find road underdogs of +150 or more, batting .260 or less against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) , with a starting hurler that gives up 0.5 or less home runs a start are unbecoming 18-84 since 1997.

N.Y. Mets at Cincinnati 7:10E

The Mets have lost three in a row after their eight game winning streak was snapped and are +130 road dogs in the Queen City. Other than last night, the starting pitchers have been roughed up forcing a top notch New York bullpen (2.60 ERA) to start piling up the innings. Surprisingly, underdogs with ML of +100 to +150, with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season, having worked three straight games throwing four or more innings, are 30-9.

L.A. Angels at Boston 7:10E

The Angels of Anaheim are having serious pitching problems. Among their 15 losses on the year, nine have been by four runs or more, including last night’s 17-8 pasting to the Red Sox, their fourth consecutive road loss. The Halos are +175 dogs and non-favorites being outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season after allowing 15 runs or more are alarming 7-39.

Detroit at Minnesota 8:10E

Joe Mauer might be out of the line-up, yet Minnesota keeps punching the ball around the yard and is second in the AL in batting average (.279) and third in runs scored at 5.4 per contest. In game two of their series with division rival Detroit, the Twins are -135 favorites and home chalk of -125 to -175, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games in May, are sharp 43-10 since 2006.

Colorado at San Diego 10:05E

The Rockies got a much needed win last night in San Diego. Colorado’s pitching staff has been ravaged by injuries. Though the bullpen has a fine 2.48 ERA, they are three of six in save opportunities.

Colorado acquired Greg Smith to be a left-handed starter and thus far his results are atrocious with 7.33 ERA. The Rockies have lost Smith’s last three outings since he has performed even worse with 9.53 ERA and bloated WHIP of 2.471.

Colorado might be catching +135 on the ML, however road underdogs of +100 to +150 with a bad bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities, using a nasty starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.250 or higher over his last three starts are 7-33, 17.5 percent the previous five seasons.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-04-2010, 08:07 PM

Canadiens and Red Wings back on home ice

Montreal and Detroit return home after first two games of their second round series and each is feeling very different. The Canadiens continue to defy hockey logic (let alone conventional thinking), bumping Pittsburgh 3-1 in Game 2. The Red Wings looked unbeatable in winning Game 7 at Phoenix and have dug a hole close to the size of Lake Ontario being down 0-2 to San Jose. Both look forward to taking care of business on their own frozen pond.

Pittsburgh at Montreal 7:00E VERSUS

It’s not supposed to be like this. Montreal is the eight-seed in the Eastern Conference, has not been favored once in the playoffs, yet is tied with the defending Stanley Cup champions at 1-1 after knocking off the league’s best regular season club Washington.

If a person is a big Canadiens backer, already four times they have cashed money line plays of +245 or higher. Talk about building a bankroll quickly.

Coming into the postseason, Montreal was presumed to be too small and not nearly talented enough to compete with the hierarchy of hockey. One aspect nobody counted on was what pumped under the sweaters of Habs players. “That’s what we wanted to do, a series like this, we wanted to get one (in Pittsburgh),” Montreal’s Scott Gomez said. “It’s far from over. But we came for one.”

Montreal is 7-3 after holding last opponent to two or fewer goals as goaltender Jaroslav Halak rebounded from crummy game one performance to stop 38 of 39 Pittsburgh shots.

Pittsburgh is 27-8 off a home loss and knows how to deal with adversity. “It’s nothing to get frustrated about,” Penguins forward Bill Guerin said. “We don’t have to go and reinvent the wheel. They’re a solid defensive team. They’re well coached, they know what they’re doing and you don’t want to get down to teams like that.”

Bookmaker.com has the Canadiens as +150 money line home underdogs and they have cashed five of last seven at +150 or less. Pittsburgh is 22-8 as road chalk and is 9-0 after losing on home ice by two or more goals. The Pens have taken four of last six at the Bell Centre.

San Jose at Detroit 7:30E TSN

This is turning into a very strange journey for the Detroit Red Wings. Detroit played their first Game 7 on the road in the opening round in 19 years and trails 0-2 in a series for the first time since 2003 when they were wiped out by Anaheim.

Did the Phoenix series take more out of the Wings than expected? Detroit is still a good club, but did monster second half rally leave the tank nearly empty and this is the result? Or are the officials ringing up too many penalties on the Red Wings where coach Mike Babcock feels his squad is being persecuted?

“The reality is that you can’t have momentum if only half your players can get on the ice because they are sitting in the penalty box all night long,” Babcock said. Detroit is 7-13 revenging one goal defeat this season.

And what’s the deal with San Jose? The Sharks are normally about to be eaten whole right now and instead have bit off five consecutive wins. Is it possible San Jose might FINALLY be on magical ride and be able to point to that one moment when faced with the most dreadful of situations, they overcome it?

Since Dan Boyle tried to clear the puck that went into his own goal for losing margin in Game 3 in Colorado, San Jose has been a different team. “It’s just an easygoing feeling in the room right now with a lot of confidence,” Ryan Clowe said. “We feel like we’re going to get it done and we did.” With two 4-3 wins in the series, San Jose is 8-0 in road games after three or more consecutive Over’s.

Nonetheless, both teams have been thru these doors before and are well-acquainted with the results. Detroit is a 37-9 at home after one or more contests past the oddsmakers total and are -165 ML favorites. They return home where they are 9-1 UNDER after a pair of visiting adventures. The Sharks are 3-7 after consecutive single goal wins and are 1-4 as playoff dogs. San Jose will strive for 3-0 series lead and is 6-1 UNDER as non-favorites of +150 or less.

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