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**BettorsChat** · 05-02-2010, 11:30 AM

gl Stardust

**StarDust Bum** · 05-02-2010, 11:50 AM

Atlanta looks to save face in Game 7

After a series in which the Hawks have been bombarded with criticism for their less than sterling play, they can do what expected of them; move on to meet Orlando with a win on Sunday against Milwaukee. After mostly 14 quarters of lackluster performances (give or take two) Atlanta players decided the team was more important than their individual efforts.

The Hawks had played loads of isolation basketball, with each pass essentially going into a black hole and they totaled a mere 31 points in the first half of Game 6. But coach Mike Woodson expressed to his club that despite another desultory 24 minutes of basketball, they trailed by only three points, as the Bucks weren’t exactly filling the funnel either.

Atlanta started the second half by being more aggressive on defense, ran the ball at every opportunity and found out about the joys of passing the ball three or more times per possession and low and behold, teammates were open and shots started falling. This style of play turned a three point deficit into a 15-point lead by the end of the third quarter and they were never really threatened again.

“The bottom line today is we brought our hard hats and not our fishing caps,” Josh Smith said. “We established ourselves early. They gave us a fight, but we were just hungry tonight. I haven’t seen us play like this the whole series.”

Atlanta returns home for the series finale where they are 36-8 and 27-17 ATS. This situation certainly favors them and Birds are 11-2 ATS in home games after a combined score of 175 points or less.

For Milwaukee it has to be tremendous sense of disappointment, letting an opportunity literally clang away from them. The Bucks were 3-17 shooting in the deciding third quarter as the normally reliable guard combination of John Salmons and Brandon Jennings scored 20 points and shot 21.4 percent. Bucks coach Scott Skiles said his team looked "panicky" at times, especially on offense.

"It's the first time we've been in this type of game and we didn't react nearly as well as we would've liked to have reacted, that's for sure," Skiles said. "Now we've got to find a way to go down there and get another one." The Bucks will have to really provide a superb effort and they are 12-4 ATS revenging a home loss this season.

Sportsbook.com has Atlanta as nine-point favorites with total of 185 and they are 13-3 ATS at Phillips Arena after two or more consecutive Under’s and 9-1 OVER after a game outrebounding opponent by 15 or more.

As ESPN’s Mike Tirico expressed to partner Hubie Brown, “In a game of pickup basketball, the first six players taken would be five Atlanta players and Jennings”.

However it is a Game 7 and if Milwaukee can come out firing and make shots to keep the pressure on Atlanta’s shoulders, the Hawks aren’t known for succeeding under adversity. The Deer’s are 23-13 ATS as a road underdog this year and 8-1 UNDER in roadies revenging a loss of 10 points or more.

ABC has the last of the round one games at 1:00 Eastern.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-02-2010, 11:51 AM

Lakers and Jazz Series Betting Preview

The NBA playoff scheduling often times borders on the ridiculous as Los Angeles and Utah won Game 6 matchups in their respective series and start the next round less than 48 hours later, while Phoenix and San Antonio completed their first round series the day prior and don’t play until a day later. However it’s not like the Lakers and Jazz aren’t familiar with one another with four regular season contests and meeting in the playoffs the last two years. For individual games, the home team is 18-8-1 ATS when these two get together. Series price courtesy of Sportsbook.com.

(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (5) Utah

The Lakers were shown to have various weaknesses by Oklahoma City who was less than a second away from pushing Los Angeles to a seventh game, but Pau Gasol was in the right place at the right time and the defending NBA champions moved forward. Can offensive-minded Utah finish what the Thunder couldn’t?

Phil Jackson’s squad played four games to find out they needed to play like a team. This meant getting everyone involved in the offense and for Kobe Bryant to be patient with his teammates even when they were doing the team a disservice.

Russell Westbrook drove the Lakers crazy and Deron Williams can to the same, just in a different manner. Williams does not have Westbrook’s quickness, making it somewhat easier for Lakers big guys to rotate quicker on penetration. Look for coach Jackson to throw the kitchen sink at Williams, with Derek Fisher, Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar and Kobe Bryant all taking turns to see what works in controlling him. If all else fails even Ron Artest could be looking in Deron’s eyes.

Gasol has the length to bother Carlos Boozer, who scored 12 points or less in three of their four matchups. This would be a huge negative for the Jazz who needs another big time scorer to keep pace with Williams.
Lamar Odom and Ron Artest have to bring more to the dance against Utah. Odom is your ultimate space cadet, playing only when he’s in the mood. Artest could be a bigger factor offensively since he doesn’t have a player of Kevin Durant’s scoring ability to worry about and though CJ Miles can have outbursts, he’s not in Durant’s area code.

Utah lost three of four to the Lakers this season and has been ousted from the postseason by L.A. the last two years. Since March 14 of last season, the Jazz have 2-8 SU and ATS record against the Lakers, with the average loss being by 14.2 per game. What can Utah do to turn the tide?

Williams needs to have similar numbers as what he had against Denver (25.8 points and 11.3 assists). This won’t be easy since the Lakers are much better defensively. That means rookie Wesley Matthews has to become an X-factor. He has to total 15 or more points per game, forcing the Lakers to use Bryant to guard him.

Paul Millsap was outstanding off the bench (17.3 PPG) against the Nuggets and similar contributions will be required. Utah forward Andrei Kirilenko could be available for Game 2 in this Western semifinal, however most reports have the first contest in Salt Lake City as more realistic estimate.

The Jazz could cover a good number of spreads in this series if Los Angeles is disinterested, but have to get over the mental part of defeating the Lakers in attempting to win games. Utah is 2-8 ATS playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5, but the Lake Show is just as miserable at home with recent 4-10-1 ATS mark at the Staples Center.

If the Lakers learned one thing from playing Oklahoma City, it was they could play possession by possession in slower paced contests and still survive. Utah’s style is more to their liking and they already have the confidence to knock them off and will do so.

Pick- L.A. Lakers (-400) in five over Utah (+300)

**StarDust Bum** · 05-02-2010, 11:52 AM

Sunday Night Baseball Betting Preview

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies each received a spectacular performance from a starting pitcher to split the first two games of their weekend series. New York hopes it has the right guy on the mound to try to continue that trend. The Mets will start Johan Santana on Sunday night when they try to bounce back in the finale of the three-game set at Citizens Bank Park.

Billed as an early showdown of NL East contenders, this series has featured two blowouts. New York (14-10, +2.8 units) won its eighth straight Friday with a 9-1 victory behind seven strong innings from Jonathon Niese before Roy Halladay ended the Mets’ run with a three-hitter in a 10-0 victory for the Phillies (13-10, -1.1) on Saturday.

Both games featured poor outings from the losing starters. Philadelphia’s Kyle Kendrick lasted five innings and yielded four runs Friday, and New York’s Mike Pelfrey allowed six runs over four innings Saturday.

The Mets appear to have the advantage Sunday with Santana (3-1, 2.08 ERA, 1.121 WHIP) facing Jamie Moyer (2-2, 5.25, 1.417) and Sportsbook.com has them as -131 money line favorites with total of nine.

Santana has yielded one run over his last 21 1/3 innings, and has won his last two outings. He yielded four hits over six innings Tuesday in a 4-0 home win over the Dodgers. “Everybody feels very motivated, and it’s good to see,” Santana said. He is 69-25 after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings. (Team's Record)

The left-hander was 4-0 with a 3.04 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies with the Mets before losing to Philadelphia in his last outing July 5, allowing two runs over seven innings in a 2-0 loss. He’s pitched at least seven innings in seven of those eight starts.

Santana has done a good job keeping the Phillies’ Chase Utley and Jayson Werth in check. Utley is 5 for 26, and Werth 6 for 24 with seven strikeouts.

Those two hitters helped key a 13-hit attack Saturday as Philadelphia ended a three-game home skid. Utley had a season-high three hits and scored three runs while Werth had two hits with three runs and two RBIs and has reached base safely in all 23 games.

That was more than enough for Halladay, who slowed down a Mets lineup that produced 26 runs over the previous three games. Philadelphia is 47-24 vs. NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last three seasons.

The 47-year-old Moyer has pitched six innings in each of his first four starts in 2010, allowing four runs Tuesday in a 6-2 loss at San Francisco. The left-hander is 0-4 with a 7.07 ERA in his last five home starts, and went 1-1 with a 6.91 ERA in five outings against New York last season. Digger Phelps son-in-law is 59-33 after giving up two or more home runs in his previous last outing since 1997. (Team's Record)

Mets third baseman David Wright is 20 for 47 with three homers in his career against Moyer. Wright is 8 for 17 during a modest five-game hitting streak.

His counterpart for the Phillies, Placido Polanco, is mired in a 3-for-34 slump and hitless in nine at-bats in this series. Polanco, however, has enjoyed success against Santana, going 10 for 26 in his career.

This is the ESPN Sunday night telecast and the Mets are 7-0 against hurler with WHIP higher than 1.300 and 21-8 UNDER after allowing eight runs or more. The Phillies can win the series and reclaim to first place with a victory and are 10-1 as home underdog of +150 or less, including 5-0 UNDER is the very same role.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-02-2010, 11:55 AM

Sunday's Playoff Tips

The Canadiens and Red Wings both survived seven game affairs in the first round. Both teams found themselves in early holes that put them in an 0-1 hole in the Conference Semifinals. Can these two members of the Original Six draw even? Let’s take a look.

Canadiens at Penguins – 2:05 p.m. EDT, NBC

Montreal got to this round on the play of Jaroslav Halak and his ownership of the top-seeded Capitals. So a gambler could understand that a fellow that just stopped 131 of 134 shots on goal in the final three games of his previous series.

Halak did indeed have the taste knocked out of his mouth on Friday night by the Penguins as they cruised to 6-3 win as $2.70 home favorites. In fact, Montreal’s top netminder only last 45 minutes in Game 1, giving up five goals on the 20 shots that were fired his way.

Pittsburgh did its damage to the Habs on something they figured they could hold down a little bit, the power play. The Pens converted on all four of their advantages in the game, while killing three of Montreal’s four power plays. And the Canadiens were only able to get off five power play shots.

Most betting outlets aren’t expecting to see this series be evened out on Sunday afternoon by installing the Penguins as $2.80 home faves (risk $280 to win $100) with a total of 5 ½. Bettors looking for a big payday can take Montreal for the outright upset for a plus-254 return (risk $100 to win $254).

If this year’s past efforts for the Habs are any indication, then their chances of tying the series are slim. In its last four games as a road underdog after losing by at least three goals, Montreal is just 1-3. The lone win happened on April 23 in a 2-1 decision in Washington. They have covered the puck line (+1 ½ goals) in two straight in this situation.

So you’re thinking the Penguins are a lock in Game 2, right? Wrong. Pittsburgh is 0-4 this season as a home “chalk” on one day of rest following a three-goal victory.

The ‘over’ has gone 6-1 in Pittsburgh’s last seven games as a home “chalk.”

Red Wings at Sharks – 8:05 p.m. EDT, Versus

Detroit proved that experience can be a valuable tool when playing in the ultimate elimination game. And after the Red Wings ripped Phoenix for a 6-1 road win in Game 7, the momentum was on their side to start the Western Conference Semifinal.

Reality was the hard pimp slap that struck the Wings’ collective faces as San Jose scored three goals in just over a minute. Oh sure, Detroit made it close but the Sharks gained the early edge with a 4-3 win as $1.45 home favorites.

San Jose did give rookie goalie Jimmy Howard something that he wasn’t used to seeing in the fact that they actually have an offense. Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi both tallied goals, while Joe Pavelski lit the lamp twice. Pavelski had 25 goals in 67 regular season matchups. But he’s on another planet in the playoffs with seven goals and four assists in seven games.

Evgeni Nabokov still looks shaky between the pipes. He allowed three goals on 23 shots during Game 1. But the Sharks do have solace in knowing they held Detroit scoreless on its five power plays. The Red Wings are now 3-for-22 with the advantage in their last four postseason tilts.

I’m not sure if it was because they just played in two nights before Game 1, but the Red Wings didn’t have their usual physical intensity. San Jose outhit (38-21) and stole the puck (14-6) more than the Wings did in the opening game of the series.

Detroit did have a nice surprise from an old friend as Johan Franzen picked up his second goal of the playoffs on Thursday night. He hadn’t scored a goal since Game 3 of the first round.

The sportsbooks have posted the Sharks as $1.40 home favorites (risk $140 to win $100) with a total of 5 ½. The Red Wings can be taken for a decent return at plus-129 (risk $100 to win $129).

The Wings are in rare territory here for our betting purposes. They’ve went into a game as road pups after losing in that role in their last game. They are 2-2 for the season, but have lost two of their last three. Detroit is 3-1 on the puck line in this situation.

San Jose is 12-9 this season as a home “chalk” in games immediately following a win in a similar role. In their last 11 matches like this, the Sharks are 7-4. The ‘over’ is 7-3-1 in those 11 battles as well.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-02-2010, 09:59 PM

Baseball sucked today....But had a sweep in the NBA and big Hockey winner dog with Montreal.......
Hope for a better day in the bases tomorrow........

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