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**Udog** · 05-01-2010, 01:04 AM

Daily Sports Roundup: May 1

Today in the Daily Sports Roundup: The Celts and Cavs meet on the hardwood, the Sprint Cup Series hits Richmond, and the Kentucky Derby runs for the roses.

Tipping off on the hardwood . . .

The second round of the NBA playoffs gets going on Saturday with Boston at Cleveland in Game 1 of their best-of-seven series. The Cavaliers advanced past the Bulls in the first round of the playoffs with a 96-94 home win on Tuesday night. LeBron James picked up 19 points and 10 rebounds for Cleveland in that contest, but a strained right elbow could end up hindering the superstar forward on Saturday afternoon. The Celtics knocked off the Heat in five games in the first round of the playoffs, finishing that series with a 96-86 home win on Tuesday night. Ray Allen led all Boston scorers by pouring in 24 points in that Game 5 win.

Meeting up on the diamond . . .
The American League schedule for Saturday has the White Sox at the Yankees, Oakland at Toronto, Texas at Seattle, Kansas City at Tampa Bay, Minnesota at Cleveland, Boston at Baltimore, and the Angels at Detroit. Scott Kazmir (2-1, 7.20 ERA) is slated to take on Jeremy Bonderman (1-1, 6.97 ERA) in that last matchup. Lefthander Kazmir picked up the victory in his last trip to the mound against the Yankees despite a shaky outing - four earned runs over 5 1-3 innings of work. Righthander Bonderman took a no-decision against the Rangers in his most recent start, surrendering four earned runs over his 5 2-3 innings of work.

Over in the National League on Saturday it'll be Arizona at the Cubs, Cincinnati at St. Louis, Houston at Atlanta, Colorado at San Francisco, Washington at Florida, Milwaukee at San Diego, Pittsburgh at the Dodgers, and the Mets at Philadelphia. The Mets' Mike Pelfrey (4-0, 0.69 ERA) will be sent out against the Phillies' Roy Halladay (4-1, 1.80 ERA) in that last game. Righthander Pelfrey tossed five scoreless innings against the Braves last time out, and he hasn't given up a run since April 9. Righthander Halladay is coming off his first loss of the season, giving up five runs over seven innings versus the Giants on Monday.

Taking a trip around the rink . . .

The NHL gets its final two second-round series underway on Saturday, with Philadelphia at Boston in an Eastern Conference semifinal, and Vancouver at Chicago in a Western Conference semifinal. The Flyers blanked the Devils 3-0 in their last game last Thursday to close out their first-round set, picking up the series win as the underdog. The Bruins also pulled off an upset in the first round, bouncing the Sabres with a 4-3 win on Monday. The Canucks managed to get past the Kings in their Western quarterfinal, while the Hawks dispatched the Predators. Chicago knocked Vancouver out of the Stanley Cup playoffs last year.

Roaring around the track . . .

The drivers of the Sprint Cup Series have a race under the lights on Saturday as they take to the track in the Crown Royal presents the Heath Calhoun 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Jimmie Johnson is listed as the 5/1 favorite to take the checkered flag at Richmond on Saturday, with Denny Hamlin (who won the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond back in September) following him on that odds list at 6/1. Kyle Busch is the defending champion at the event, and he sits at 8/1 odds to visit Victory Lane on Saturday night. Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin round out the top tier of contenders for the race; they're both listed at 9/1.

Rounding out the Roundup . . .

Finally, the 2010 Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday at Churchill Downs, with Lookin at Lucky set as the 7/2 favorite despite drawing the rail position. Sidney's Candy, next on that odds list at 6/1, will start on the outside at post 20. Awesome Act (post 16) is third on the chart at 9/1 odds, with Icebox (post 2) at 10/1, and Devil May Care (post 11) at 12/1. Super Saver (post 4) is set at 14/1 odds for Saturday, with each of American Lion (post 7), Mission Impazible (post 14), and Dublin (post 17) at 16/1. Noble's Promise (post 3) rounds out the top picks at 18/1. The biggest longshot for the Derby is Backtalk (post 18), listed at 50/1 odds.

**Udog** · 05-01-2010, 01:06 AM

Bettor's best friend: Saturday's wagering tips

Lines off the board

The total in the Diamondbacks-Cubs game is OTB because the wind speed and direction at Wrigley Field is unknown. With the wind blowing out, the totals in the first two games were set at 13 and 14.5 and both went over.

Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves – Wandy Rodriguez (back) was scratched from his Friday start and could pitch Saturday but that remains uncertain.

Lines to keep an eye on

The Cardinals surfaced as a -185 home favorite over Cincinnati but that number can now be found as low as -170 at some shops.

King Felix and his Mariners opened as -240 favorites but have since dropped to -220 home chalk against the Rangers. Seattle has won the last five games versus Texas that Hernandez has started.

The total in the Red Sox-Orioles game has dropped a half run from its opener and now stands at 9.5.

Going into Friday’s game, the Brewers and Padres had played to four straight overs but the total for Saturday has dropped from an opener of 7.5 down to 7.

Weather report

Scattered thunderstorms in the Detroit area will bring a 40 percent chance of rain during the Tigers-Angels matchup. Wind will blow in from left field at 14 mph.

There is a 50 percent chance of rain during the Twins-Indians game on Saturday with wind expected to blow out to center at 13 mph.

A small chance of thunderstorms could hinder play at the Quail Hollow Championship in Charlotte on Saturday. Only the groups teeing off late would be affected as the 30 percent chance of rain will not come into play until about 3 p.m. local time.

Who’s hot

The last four games between the Cavs and Celtics have gone over the posted total.

Philadelphia collected 4.17 units on the moneyline during the Devils series.

Tampa Bay had won five straight heading into Friday and is 8-2 in its last 10 games.

Who’s not

Vancouver has dropped five of the last seven outings versus the Blackhawks.

Going into Friday’s action, the Braves had lost nine consecutive games.

The Dodgers are on a five-game skid and have a 2-8 record since April 19.

Key stat

52 – Number of times out of 136 the Kentucky Derby favorite has won the race. In the last decade, the favorite has won four times. Lookin At Lucky is the odds-on favorite Saturday at 3-1 and will start from the rail position.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

It was determined Cavaliers forward LeBron James has a bone bruise and strain in his ailing right elbow after an MRI exam. James was limited in practice on Thursday and only shot left-handed but reports indicated he looked fine shooting with his normal hand Friday. James reinjured his elbow in Monday night's series-clinching win over the Chicago Bulls, shooting a late free throw with his left hand to avoid the pain in his right arm. He will suit up on Saturday but bettors should be cognizant that his shooting could be affected.

Game of the Day

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers (-7.5, 191.5)

Notable quotable

"The sabermetricians are welcome to have their opinions about our business. However, I choose to ignore their opinions."

-- Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. on criticism of the Ryan Howard contract extension. Howard is not living up to expectations this season.

Tips and notes

- Despite being ill with food poisoning and needing two and half bags of fluids through an IV the night before the Quail Hollow tournament, Phil Mickelson came out and fired a 2-under round Thursday. He backed that up with a 4-under par performance on Friday and is two strokes off the lead. But bettors looking to back Lefty should be wary as he could begin to tire out. Mickelson even said after the first round, "I may have run out of a little bit of energy there toward the end.”

- Nick Blackburn had to leave the Twins on Friday due to a family emergency so the team called up Jeff Manship to make a spot start Saturday. Manship started five games for Minnesota last season and gave up 20 earned runs in 31.2 innings of work (1-1, 5.68 ERA). Minor league callups usually don’t fare well in these situations and the Indians are getting a good price against him at -110.

- Javier Vasquez has been downright awful in his second foray with the Yankees. Former pitcher Curt Schilling said if anyone expects Vasquez to better this time around “they are fooling themselves.” Schilling pointed out that the NL is much easier of a league to pitch in than the AL (no DH) so the great year Vasquez had with the Braves will not be duplicated. The Yankees and Vasquez are -160 favorites Saturday against Chicago’s best pitcher – John Danks (3-0, 1.55 ERA).

**Udog** · 05-01-2010, 01:07 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 1

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BOSTON (54 - 33) at CLEVELAND (65 - 22) - 5/1/2010, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 37-48 ATS (-15.8 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 16-27 ATS (-13.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
CLEVELAND is 98-82 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 84-67 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 14-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 10-9 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
10 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 05-01-2010, 01:08 AM

NBA
Short Sheet

Saturday, 5/1/2010

Eastern Conference 2nd Round - Best of 7 - Game 1
BOSTON at CLEVELAND, 3:00 PM ET TNT
BOSTON: 13-29 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5
CLEVELAND: 9-1 ATS in the second round of the playoffs

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 05-01-2010, 01:10 AM

NBA

Saturday, May 1

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
BOSTON vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games on the road
Boston is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Boston
Cleveland is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Boston

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**Udog** · 05-01-2010, 01:14 AM

NBA

Saturday, May 1

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NBA Round 2 preview and picks
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Eastern Conference

Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (-450 to win series)

Let’s get one thing straight about LeBron James: There is nothing wrong with his right elbow.

At least that’s the opinion of the Boston Celtics, who are preparing to deal with a full-bore version of James when the teams square off in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series Saturday afternoon.

If James is milking the elbow ailment – and tests earlier this week showed no damage – for effect, he will have to go some to match Boston’s own drama queen, Paul Pierce.

To this day Phil Jackson talks about the 2008 Finals when Pierce seemingly had every bone in his body broken, then returned a few minutes later and hit two 3-pointers on the way to a Boston victory.

Of far more importance to the Celtics than James’s elbow is how to contain everyone else in a Cleveland uniform. The Cavs are a markedly better team than the one that lost in seven games to Boston in the 2008 Eastern Conference semifinals. They are better at the point, better inside and have just enough talent to make the Celtics uncomfortable when they double - and triple -team James.

Nothing much can be gleaned from the teams’ play in the first round. Boston turned aside the Heat in five games, the series extended that long only by Dwayne Wade’s career game in Miami in Game 4. The Cavs had one hiccup in their matchup with the Bulls, but Chicago’s spirited play probably only sharpened Cleveland for the Boston battle.

Cleveland seems to have inherent advantages – an in-his-prime James against a long-in-the-tooth Pierce at small forward and Shaq/Ilgauskas over Kendrick Perkins at center are among the mismatches.

But the Celtics feel that while Kevin Garnett is still not the KG of 2008, his wounded knee is getting better by the centimeter and he can make life miserable at times for Antawn Jamison. And the Celtics like the point guard battle, gladly sacrificing a little offense and loving what a motivated Rajon Rondo can do defensively to Mo Williams while distributing the ball.

As for the numbers, betjamaica.com has installed the Cavs as a hefty -450 to win the series, with the Celtics offered at +350. Cleveland is 1-to-2 to win the East and 7/5 to win the NBA title, while Boston backers can get 17/2 and 15/1 odds.

There are no secrets with the Cavaliers. They will run off turnovers but are comfy in a halfcourt set in which every possession runs through James. When the shot clock runs down James becomes a bowling ball, driving the lane, forcing contact and defying officials to call charges that might sit the game’s most electric player on the bench and invite phone calls from the league’s front office (Note here: If you don’t think superstar calls exist in the NBA, you have no business watching or wagering).

Boston’s season has been compared to watching how sausages are made. Garnett’s slow progress in returning from knee problems, Pierce’s aging, Rasheed Wallace’s lack of effort and assorted other stops and starts made the Celts a work in progress. After a 25-3 start Boston was a .500 team for the rest of the regular season. The fact is, no one knows really what to expect from these guys.

Prediction: Cleveland in five games

Check back soon for the remaining Eastern Conference semifinal preview and pick.

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**Udog** · 05-01-2010, 01:16 AM

NBA

Saturday, May 1

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Game of the day: Celtics at Cavaliers
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Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers (-7.5, 191.5)

Rivalry renewed

This is the second round series that everyone wanted to see becuase there’s no love lost between the Celtics and Cavaliers.

“We know that in order for each team to reach their goal - to win a championship - they’ve got to go through one of us,” said Celtics center Kendrick Perkins. “So a lot of noise talking when we play, a lot of guys don’t like each other.’’

To drive that point home, nine technical fouls were handed out in their four regular season matchups this year. Obviously the intensity level is going to be even higher in this series.

They last met in the playoffs two years ago. The Celtics were the heavily favored team that time around, but needed seven games to oust the Cavs. They went on to win the NBA title.

The home team won every game in that series, and the Cavs went 6-1 ATS.

Since then, they’ve split eight regular season meetings, with the outright winner also cashing ATS in seven of those eight games. The Cavs hold a slim 5-3 ATS edge over that span.

Elbow room

Lebron James’ ailing elbow is the biggest storyline entering this series.

He suffered an elbow strain and bone bruise in the Cavs series-clinching win over the Bulls on Tuesday.

The minor injury won’t keep James out of the lineup in Game 1, but could hamper his shooting ability.

James practiced on Thursday, but wasn’t involved in any full contact drills. He took most of his shots with his left hand so it’s obvious that he’s not close to full strength right now.

"If I am limited during the game, then I'll be smart about it," James said. "That's what I was able to do in Game 5 against the Bulls. I was very limited in shooting long-range shots, so I started going to the hole in the fourth quarter."

The Celtics aren’t buying it.

Head coach Doc Rivers told ESPN.com, "I'll tell you what, if he goes three or four games and shoots left-handed only, then I'll believe he's hurt. Other than that, we'll be ready for the LeBron we've seen all playoffs."

Happy dogs

The Boston Celtics don’t mind being underdogs this time around.

They’re listed as nearly 4-1 dogs to win this series at most sportsbooks.

It’s a situation Paul Pierce feels most comfortable in.

He had this to say to the Boston Globe on Thursday, “I feel like that’s how it’s been for me individually. My whole career, I definitely thrive in being in that situation, just like I think a lot of people in here thrive being in that situation.”

Pierce added, “We’ll see how it turns out. It’s no pressure on us."

The Celtics are an even 10-10-2 ATS in 22 games in the underdog role this season. They won outright as 5-point dogs in Cleveland on the opening night of the regular season, but weren’t so fortunate on their next trip, dropping a 104-93 decision at Quicken Loans Arena in mid-March.

The X-factor

The play of Shaquille O’Neal might be the key to Cavs success in this series.

He had an up and down opening round against the Bulls, but stepped up when it counted, in Tuesday’s series-clinching win. Shaq scored 14 points to go along with eight rebounds, three assists and a block in 26 minutes of action.

O’Neal obviously felt good after that well-rounded performance, "I just wanted to be more aggressive and take my time and really go up strong. Hands are feeling good. Thumbs are pretty good."

Head coach Mike Brown added, "He was a big-time presence for us, not only offensively but defensively, too. I thought his ability to not necessarily score all the time, even though he was 7-for-9 from the floor, but to get us in the bonus.”

If he’s going to continue to log a lot of minutes, the Cavs are going to need production from him at both ends of the floor against the Celtics.

Line moves

The early money was on the Cavs, bumping them from 7 to 7.5-point favorites.

But most consensus reports now indicate that the Celtics are getting plenty of love from the betting public. That money could force the line back to 7 prior to tipoff on Saturday.

The total has held steady since opening at 191.5 at most offshore books.

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**Udog** · 05-01-2010, 01:18 AM

NBA

Saturday, May 1

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Pick 'n' roll: Saturday's best NBA bet
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Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers (-7, 191)

Hopefully LeBron James’ mother won’t need to be restrained again in a playoff game between the Celtics and Cavs, but it will undoubtedly be an emotional series.

During the regular season, these teams met four times (split 2-2 SU and ATS) and there were nine technical fouls called.

“Composure is the biggest thing,’’ Ray Allen said. “We have to understand what being tough really is and try to outlast them so we’ve got to keep our composure and we’ve got to have great resiliency.’’

“You’ve got to expect some tempers to probably flare, a physical series, just two heavyweights going at it for one thing and that’s to advance and go to the next round,” Paul Pierce added.

All four games during the regular season went over the posted total and only one was set lower than the 191 offered for Saturday.

With emotions running high there should be an abundance of fouls called which will in turn slow the game down from a clock standpoint. And in most cases, more time equates to more points.

Pick: Over

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**Udog** · 05-01-2010, 01:28 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 1

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VANCOUVER (53-29-0-6, 112 pts.) at CHICAGO (56-24-0-8, 120 pts.) - 5/1/2010, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 53-25 ATS (+19.6 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 79-59 ATS (+1.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 27-13 ATS (+9.4 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
VANCOUVER is 111-84 ATS (+199.0 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 127-136 ATS (+301.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 9-9-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.4 Units)

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PHILADELPHIA (45-36-0-6, 96 pts.) at BOSTON (43-32-0-13, 99 pts.) - 5/1/2010, 12:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-14 ATS (-10.7 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-22 ATS (-13.8 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
BOSTON is 19-10 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a division game this season.
BOSTON is 43-45 ATS (+43.0 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 9-14 ATS (-13.2 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 7-5 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 7-5-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.9 Units)

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**Udog** · 05-01-2010, 01:31 AM

NHL
Short Sheet

Saturday, 5/1/2010

Western Conference Playoffs - Second Round - Best of 7 - Game 1
VANCOUVER at CHICAGO, 8:05 PM ET VERSUS
VANCOUVER: 4-9 SU after BB wins by 2+ goals
CHICAGO: 21-7 SU off a division win by 2+ goals

Eastern Conference Playoffs - Second Round - Best of 7 - Game 1
PHILADELPHIA at BOSTON, 12:35 PM ET NBC
PHILADELPHIA: 0-5 SU after allowing 1 goal or less in BB games
BOSTON: 12-0 SU at home off a home division win

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**dss_pansat** · 05-01-2010, 01:38 AM

There is another NBA game on Saturday
San Antonio vs Phoenix

**Udog** · 05-01-2010, 01:41 AM

NHL

Saturday, May 1

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Ice picks: Today's best NHL bets
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Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins (-150, 5)

An unlikely second round matchup sees the sixth-seeded Bruins playing the seventh-seeded Flyers, but the big story is all about who will and who won’t be suiting up.

The Bruins welcome back Marc Savard, their best playmaker and leading scorer for three straight years before a concussion slowed him at the end of season.

The Flyers, on the other hand, saw their second line evaporate after forwards Jeff Carter and Simon Gagne went down with injuries. Philadelphia will have to give more ice time to less skilled players, which means the Flyers will be looking to hit the Bruins early and often.

"It was a key factor in the Jersey series that we were hard on all their skilled guys," Flyer forward Dan Carcillo told the Philadelphia Inquirer. "This is going to be no different. . . . It's probably not going to be the prettiest hockey, but it should be fun to watch."

Well said.

Pick: Under

Vancouver Canucks at Chicago Blackhawks (-145, 5.5)

Oddsmakers couldn’t set totals low enough for the Canucks when Roberto Luongo first arrived in Vancouver. The Canucks had little fire power and Luongo was playing like the best goalie in the world.

That was then and this is now. The Canucks’ attack is among the most potent in the league. Led by Swedish stars Mikael Samuelsson and Daniel and Henrik Sedin, coach Alain Vigneault has the scoring depth to compete with Chicago’s young guns.

But will Vigneault get the advantage in nets? The Blackhawks scored 23 goals in their six-game playoff series against the Canucks last year and they put six past Luongo in the last meeting of the regular season.

Vancouver has faith in its netminder but the club also wants to give him lots of goal support. The Vancouver Province reports that the Canucks think Chicago goalie Anti Niemi has a tendency to go down early, much like Kings goalie Jonathan Quick, whom the Canucks lit up for 17 goals in their last three games.

Pick: Over

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**Udog** · 05-01-2010, 01:44 AM

Originally posted by dss_pansat View Post

There is another NBA game on Saturday
San Antonio vs Phoenix

Thanks, dss!

I've posted everything that's up for tomorrow's NBA. I'll update all the stuff as soon as our sources do. It should all be up and ready for posting by around 10:00am Central time.

**Udog** · 05-01-2010, 01:47 AM

MLB

Saturday, May 1

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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs (-105, OTB)

Why an ace pitcher like Dan Haren continues to be undervalued by oddsmakers is perplexing.

He hasn’t been completely lights out this season, but coming off an impressive 8.0-inning, 10-strikeout win at Colorado one would expect him to be more than a slight favorite at Wrigley?

The Snakes lead the NL in runs scored and have plated at least five baserunners in all but one of Haren’s four starts this season.

Arizona is also tops in the majors with 33 home runs and in the first two games of this series the team has 18 total runs.

Opposing Haren on Saturday will be the Cubs No. 4 starter, Carlos Silva. The overpaid Silva has been surprisingly effective this year (2-0, 1.73 ERA) but all good things must come to an end.

You’re not going to find a better price than this with an ace facing a former reliever.

Pick: Diamondbacks

Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays (-130, 9)

The A’s lineup should have an edge Saturday when facing one of its old teammates.

Dana Eveland will be on the bump for Toronto after spending the last two seasons in Oakland. Eveland was cruising after three starts this season but then got rocked by the BoSox for seven earned in 3.0 innings Monday.

"He's a guy that, I guess a few years back had a good year in Oakland, and then kind of got off the track a little bit," Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston said.

In 2008, Eveland started out with a 3-1 record and a 2.48 ERA. He finished that season 9-9 with an ERA around 4.50. Last year he finished the season in the minors.

Eveland’s 2-0 “hot” start this season may be showing signs of cooling after his last outing. And against a lineup and coaching staff that knows his repertoire all too well, the A’s should be able to touch him up enough for the win.

Pick: Athletics

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Announcement

Saturday Trends and Indexes 5/1 (NBA, NHL, MLB, Misc.)

Saturday Trends and Indexes 5/1 (NBA, NHL, MLB, Misc.)

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