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**hokie99** · 04-30-2010, 12:05 PM

GL SDB! Which way you going with that Cubbies total? 14.5??

**StarDust Bum** · 04-30-2010, 03:45 PM

Sorry i missed your question there Hokie...but i had to get some work done around here........the wind must be blowing out today at wigley for the total to be that high......the total on the game was up at the time ....but based on the pitchers at the time and had i know what the line was on the total there would have been a slight lean on the over......14.5 is there for a reason......maybe lots of HR's today........good luck whichever way you went......

**StarDust Bum** · 04-30-2010, 03:46 PM

Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 4/30-5/2

Baseball wraps up its first month of the season this weekend and if anything sticks out thus far it’s that teams can get hot and cold in a hurry. Several teams have had prolonged winning or losing streaks already. In fact, at this moment as we head into another weekend of action, there are five teams that boast varying streaks of at least five games. The hottest team is the New York Mets, the coldest club is the Atlanta Braves. Both will be part of a full slate of games on tap for the next three days.

In the American League this weekend, the two East frontrunners will play home series’ looking to extend their surges. Tampa Bay has won five straight games and 14 of its L16 to post the league’s best first month record. The Rays continue a four-game set with the Royals after winning the opener 11-1 on Thursday. They are scoring 6.5 runs per game thus far, easily tops in the majors by over a half run per contest. The Royals are headed in the opposite direction, losers of their last three games and occupying the basement of the Central Division once again. In New York, the Yankees return home for the first time in awhile. They have played only six of their 21 games in the Bronx thus far and put a 5-1 home record on the line versus the White Sox, who have struggled in New York, winning just one of the last seven games there. The Yankees, though a commendable 14-7 thus far, already trail the Rays by 2-1/2 games in the East. Elsewhere in the junior circuit, two teams playing well of late, the Angels and Tigers, will meet in the Motor City.

In the Senior Circuit, no team is hotter than the Mets, who’ve won seven games in a row and have bypassed the Phillies for first in the East. That lead is only a ½ game however, and with the two teams hooking up for three games, the margin could widen or change hands this weekend. New York has not been on the road much this season, and sports just a 2-4 record away from home. The Phillies return home after a 9-game road swing. Speaking of the East division, what in the world has happened to the Atlanta Braves? After opening the season with an 8-5 mark, they have since lost their last nine games in a row, including a 0-7 road trip. Atlanta returns home to face Houston, and it’s as if oddsmakers have forgotten entirely about the losing skid, as the Braves are -200 favorites in Friday’s series opener. The Astros are one of a number of teams that have shown an imbalanced schedule towards home games, with 21 in Houston and six away. Out West, there are some intriguing N.L. series’ as well, with the red-hot Padres continuing a 4-game set with Milwaukee, and the Dodgers hosting Pittsburgh. L.A.’s bats have gone cold since Manny Ramirez went out as they’ve been shut out in three of their last five games.

Now, here’s a look at some of the Top Power Trends you’ll want to consider as you handicap each of this weekend’s 15 series’.

ARIZONA at CHICAGO CUBS

ARIZONA is 15-4 UNDER (+10.5 Units) in road games against NL Central opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 4.4, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 1*)

NY METS at PHILADELPHIA

NY METS are 14-31 (-19.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NY METS 4.0, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)

WASHINGTON at FLORIDA

FLORIDA is 19-6 OVER (+12.7 Units) in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 5.6, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 2*)

HOUSTON at ATLANTA

ATLANTA is 30-40 (-25.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 4.4, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)

CINCINNATI at ST LOUIS

ST LOUIS is 32-9 (+17.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 5.7, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 2*)

MILWAUKEE at SAN DIEGO

SAN DIEGO is 13-3 (+11.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 5.4, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 3*)

PITTSBURGH at LA DODGERS

LA DODGERS are 1-7 (-8.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. The average score was LA DODGERS 5.3, OPPONENT 6.9 - (Rating = 0*)

COLORADO at SAN FRANCISCO

COLORADO is 13-29 (-17.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 4.3, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 1*)

CHI WHITE SOX at NY YANKEES

CHI WHITE SOX are 40-23 (+18.6 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 4.6, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)

MINNESOTA at CLEVELAND

CLEVELAND is 16-32 (-15.6 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.3, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)

OAKLAND at TORONTO

OAKLAND is 24-42 (-17.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 4.2, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 0*)

BOSTON at BALTIMORE

BALTIMORE is 8-24 (-15.5 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.3, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)

LA ANGELS at DETROIT

LA ANGELS are 24-9 (+16.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.2, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)

KANSAS CITY at TAMPA BAY

TAMPA BAY is 14-2 (+11.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 7.4, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 2*)

TEXAS at SEATTLE

TEXAS is 11-3 (+9.9 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 6.7, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-30-2010, 03:47 PM

MLB Series Betting- N.Y. Mets at Philadelphia

The New York Mets are doing EVERYTHING right. New York has flown to the top of East Division standings on the strength of seven straight wins. The Mets pitching staff has been imperious, allowing 13 runs in this stretch, which includes hanging all zeros on two occasions. After a slow start, New York’s offense is averaging five runs per game and manager Jerry Manuel hasn’t made a miscue, as his team completed 9-1 homestand, its best since September of 1988.

The Mets (13-9, +3.6 units) take their act on the road to a Philadelphia, who has ruled the NL East for the last few years. The Phillies ( 12-9, -0.8) are back home after 4-5 road trip and has misfiring offense that has averaged 3.3 runs per contest the last two weeks. “We’ll take the positives away and go home,” right fielder Jayson Werth said. “We’ve got a lot of baseball left to play so we’ve got to keep doing what we’re doing.”

The Mets are third in baseball in runs permitted at 3.3 per contest and start Jon Niese (0-1, 3.68 ERA) who has received limited run support (total of 10) in his four starts. Niese has loose body with easy motion, but leaves too many pitches in the hitting zone, accounting for 30 hits in 22 innings. Against good pitching clubs, Philly has feasted (5.3 RPG) with 68-36 record vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs a game over the last three seasons.

The Phils counter with Kyle Kendrick (0-0, 7.71) in the series opener whose most notable trait this season is inconsistency. "The first month of the season hasn't been very good [for me]," said Kendrick. "I've been pretty erratic. ... I've had some good spots and some bad ones. I'll just have to keep working on it." Kendrick and the Phillies are 20-3 OVER after a win, with New York 16-42 in road games vs. clubs who strand 7.5 or more runners on base a contest.

Philadelphia is a -145 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com with total Ov10.5. This is expected to be Kendrick’s last start with Joe Blanton possibly activated from disabled list this weekend from injury. Kendrick is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA in five starts against the Mets.

Game 1 Edge: New York
Also coming off the DL is closer Brad Lidge, who has been an adventure since 2008 when he converted all 48 saves. Last year he led the big leagues with 11 blown saves and has contributed to his team’s 55.6 percent save percentage in 2010. New York is 9-1 against bullpens that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities this season, but first they have to hit well enough against Roy Halladay (4-1, 1.80) to get that far.

Halladay proved he isn’t “Iron Man”, conceding 10 hits and five runs in seven innings at San Francisco Monday, suffering his first loss of the season. This will be Halladay’s first taste of this NL East rivalry. The Phillies have lost eight of last 10 Saturday’s encounters.

The Metropolitans will start one of the hottest pitchers in the National League in Mike Pelfrey (4-0, 0.69). The tall right-hander has not allowed a run in 24 innings thanks to darting fastball and new cutter, which he has spotted precisely. Pelfrey is a 4-2 record and 4.82 ERA in nine starts against Philadelphia; however has 7.17 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. Though he only gives up a home run once every 13.6 innings, Chase Utley has tagged four times. New York is 2-6 as visitors with Pelfrey the starter.

This is part of FOX’s Saturday afternoon MLB coverage.
Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia

Ryan Howard broke the longest homerless drought of his career - a span of 65 at-bats - this past Wednesday and will take his rips against Johan Santana (3-1, 2.08). The lefthander’s fastball isn’t as what it was when he was in Minnesota (down about three MPH according to radar guns), nonetheless Santana has become more resourceful in blending other pitches and hitting different spots to keep hitters off-balance, while still maintaining his out-pitch, the dastardly changeup. To date, lefty batters are at the Mendoza line (.200) and right-hand hitters are at .232 against his pitches.

Ageless Jamie Moyer (2-2, 5.25) could be a father to some of his teammates at 47 years old. Though most guys his age that played the game are pitching coaches somewhere, Moyer continue to defy the odds, with left-handers swingers batting .214 against him. Look for New York to load up with players in the right side of the batter’s box, as they see Moyer’s soft tosses much better and are hitting .306 against him.

This will be the ESPN Sunday Night contest.

Game 3 Edge: New York

Professional bettor, sometimes writer and fulltime smart-aleck Red Wydley provided this week’s series pick.

“The Mets aren’t as good as they’re playing and the Phillies are better than they’ve played. The first game sets the tone, since any reasonable bettor is not going to bet against Halladay or Santana unless they are hoping for a long shot like Homeboykris at the Derby (50-1).

New York lost 12 of 18 to Philadelphia last year and has the momentum to turn the tables. The sample is small but the Phillies are 1-3 against lefties to begin the season, batting .221 and if Niese keeps the ball in the park, the Mets can win the first game. Kendrick had yet another chance to be more than a reliever and blew it with more lousy command (9 W’s and K’s) and dishing out more hits than the Jonas brothers.

I’ll bet the Mets winning streak reaches eight and they win the series and maintain first place lead, for now.”

Sportsbook.com series odds: New York +130, Philadelphia -160

**StarDust Bum** · 04-30-2010, 03:48 PM

NHL Playoff Betting Preview – Eastern Conference Semis

The wreckage the lower seeds did in the East changed the entire playoff picture. Most believed Pittsburgh would have a challenging time repeating as Eastern Conference champions for a third straight year, but with the top three seeds now on vacation the Penguins are unquestionably the team to beat now. Pittsburgh is a -165 favorite to rule the East, with their dubious opponent Montreal at +700. Three weeks ago it would be hilarious to believe Boston (+375) or Philadelphia (+400) would have an inkling of opportunity to be in the Eastern finals, yet one of them will. All lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

(4)Pittsburgh vs (8) Montreal

On occasion in sports, an individual will do something so unusual, their name will be associated it. In baseball, Mario Mendoza was a slick fielding shortstop in the 1970-80’s, but was a terrible hitter during his career and his name became used as the Mendoza Line, for batters hitting above or below .200.

If goalie Jaroslav Halak can continue to play like he did against Washington and Montreal could upset Pittsburgh, a hot goal-tender might forever me known as having the “Halak Effect”. Montreal became the first team to knock off a No.1 seed in the first round since the NHL playoffs went to present format in 1994 and though dominated frequently in puck possession and shots, they played well enough and made sure the Capitals felt the mental pressure and let Halak do the rest.

An understated aspect of what the Canadiens accomplished was they were quicker to the puck and willing to block shots with the body and clogged passing lanes to mess up Washington’s timing. Though the Caps had a ton of shots, quality was certainly lacking.

Pittsburgh has the benefit of watching more tape on Montreal and has the confidence of being in The Finals the last two years, which will make them tougher to rattle. This is where the Habs have to continue to forecheck expertly and Mike Cammalleri, Brian Gionta and Tomas Plekanec have to score. Montreal will begin the series extremely confident and is 18-10 in road games after two or more Under’s.

Sidney Crosby continues to be dumbfounding and he leads by example, which is why Pittsburgh is unflappable. Lose first game at home to Ottawa, win the next three. Lose Game 5 to clinch series and trail in next contest on the road 3-0, score four straight goals and wrap up series, nothing to it.

With Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Stall, Pittsburgh has a relentless attack that offers no quarter for opposition. The trio had 25 points in six games (10 goals and 15 assists) and each is a creative operator, which leaves Montreal with situations they cannot prepare for. A rested Penguins squad is all but unbeatable with 13-0 record playing five or fewer games in two week window.

Metminder Marc-Andre Fleury will let in the occasional soft goal, but is sturdy when needed most and savvy veteran Sergei Gonchar is dependable blue-liner along with other lesser known teammates on this star-studded squad. They will try to take advantage of the Canadiens frailties in the second round that shows 3-16 record.

Pittsburgh will attempt to crack the Halak code and grab leads to unsettle Montreal. The Penguins do play looser than necessary and Montreal will have to take advantage of each opportunity and try and bottle up the Pitt power play similar to what they did to Washington. The Canadiens will battle valiantly, but come up short like they did in losing three of four this season.

Pick- Pittsburgh (-435) in six over Montreal (+365)

(6) Boston vs (7) Philadelphia

The Bruins secured a playoff berth on the second to last day of the season and now have home ice advantage in the Eastern semi-finals vs. Philadelphia club that needed to win last regular season contest just to be invited to the postseason. Go figure, it must be the Stanley Cup playoffs.

This series is expected to be very physical and reminiscent of the 1970’s when the Big Bad Bruins battled the Broad Street Bullies.

Philadelphia had New Jersey’s number all season and got into the Devils’ heads and exploited even their smallest weakness. The Flyers will have fewer dependable scoring options without Jeff Carter and Simon Gagne, both out for the series because of foot injuries, which leaves youngsters Claude Giroux James van Riemsdyk and Ville Leino to pick up the scoring slack. The Flyers still have offensive firepower with Michael Richards (eight points) and Daniel Briere, both very sharp at present.

The strength of the Philly is the blue-liners with the always reliable Chris Pronger and Matt Carle matched together along with Kimmo Timonen and Braydon Coburn, giving the Flyers the best group of defensemen still left in the East. Goalie Brian Boucher turned back the clock and has remarkable .940 save percentage and 1.59 GAA; however it is safe to assume if Philadelphia takes the six-plus penalties per contest they had against the Devils, there will be hell to pay after conceding only four goals. The Flyers enter round two on 7-2 run.

Boston doesn’t have a lot of offensive weapons, which is why coach Claude Julien took his chances and turned the Bruins into physical, tough-minded defensive team, leaning on goaltending as the last line of defense.

Though the Bruins didn’t lead until the later stages of the games they won over Buffalo, they manhandled the Sabres and wore them down. Zdeno Chara was tougher than day old pork chop and has taught the cub Bruins how to take the body and clear the puck out of their zone when pressured.
Rookie netminder Tuukka Rask held up well in permitting 14 goals in his first six playoff games but will have to deal with the always annoying (if he’s not on your team) Daniel Carcillo, who is known for creating mayhem.

Boston outscored Buffalo by one goal in their series and won the special teams battle 6-0 for the difference. The Bruins power play could be further enhanced with the return of their best center Marc Savard, who probably earns most of his playing time in man-advantage situations and rebuilds his strength taking intermittent shifts. Boston starts series with 38-16 mark having won three of four.

Miroslav Satan had a reputation as soft player, which is how Boston was able to sign him at midseason with all their injuries; however he had two game-winning goals and three assists in last series. David Krejci has been one of the Bruins best players the last six weeks, yet he will need help against the bigger Flyers and Marco Sturm has to do more than just take his shift, he has to produce points.

For fans that love hitting, this series is a true delight. These teams divided four games, with Boston taking the last two. Home ice means zilch when these two collide, with the visitor 14-5 in last 19 matchups. I’ll use the slightest of leans with Philadelphia being more skilled offensively and as good defensively. Leave open to change my mind after seeing how goalies perform in series opener and take adjusted series odds if necessary.

Pick- Philadelphia (+130) in seven over Boston (-150)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-30-2010, 03:49 PM

Friday night is moving day in NBA Playoffs

One of two things happens to start the weekend in professional basketball, either a series will conclude and the winning squad can start thinking about their next series and opponent or the competing teams will return to familiar locale for a Game 7 on Sunday. This makes for real drama as a trio of series underdogs look to wrap-up or extend a series.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 7:00E ESPN

Though the hip-hop generation of NBA players likely doesn’t include many U2 fans, a song comes to mind watching Atlanta and Milwaukee the last three games, “Desire”.

The Bucks performance in pulling the 91-87 upset as nine-point favorites was unremarkable, given the fact they shot 40.3 percent for the game, were outscored at the center position 25-4 and saw various players disappear for long stretches even when they were on the floor.

Yet, if one game defines a team and its coach, it was Game 5 for Milwaukee with their desire. Scott Skiles grinded away as a college and NBA player and his less-talented contingent played like he did his whole career. This Bucks team is 14-4 ATS in home games after playing as a road underdog this season and goes for the first surprise of the playoffs.

Atlanta showed what they were made of as Josh Smith, Al Horford, Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford all decided individually they were going to be “the man” and went about their business trying to take their defenders one on one with passing the ball be damned. Once again the Hawks proved they are not mature TEAM and that they lack heart. Peering ahead it is little wonder this team is 1-10 ATS revenging a home loss this season.

Sportsbook.com still has the more talent-laden Atlanta squad as two-point favorites, however it would take a large dosage of courage to back a team that is 1-10 SU and ATS on the playoff road the last three seasons. Milwaukee was the best spread team in the NBA this campaign and it is continuing in the playoffs. They are 20-6 ATS having covered the spread in three or more consecutive contests.

L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City 9:30E ESPN

The people of the United States are known for their short attention spans and ever increasing shorter memories. In this celebrity-status world, it’s easy to jump on the latest fad and forget about what is tried and true.
The basketball world has become infatuated with latest new kids on the block, the Oklahoma City Thunder. They are young, talented, and fearless and their youth doesn’t allow them to be discouraged for long.

The eminent demise of the Los Angeles Lakers has been discussed from coast to coast on talk radio and every chatroom and blog one could stumble upon. The world had lost track of just how good the Lakers can be last playing a complete basketball game on Mar. 12 in Phoenix, 21 games ago or a lifetime in today’s hectic world.

But the Lakers came prepared, executed their game plan Tuesday evening, integrating all the parts of the triangle offense to perfection and showed why gold and purple still matters. L.A. is 26-15 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four.

Oklahoma City gladly returns home, even faced with elimination and is a one-point favorite with total of 194.5. The Thunder is thunderous 15-5 ATS off a road loss and uncanny 27-8 ATS after failing to cover the number. OKC is 13-3 UNDER at the Ford Center after wearing the visiting blue togs. The Lakers will seek to deliver the knockout blow, but are 1-9 ATS off a cover. Kobe and company are 22-8 UNDER with two days’ rest.

Denver at Utah 10:30E ESPN2

At least for a day, no negative tweets, talk or posturing out of Denver as they held off first match point against Utah at home Wednesday 116-102.
Focal point Carmelo Anthony must have made his case strong enough that he needed help as five other Nuggets scored in double figures and more importantly, the team collectively took a defensive stance, holding the Jazz to series low 45.2 percent.

“Everybody stepped up tonight and did their part,” Anthony said after the game. “With Nene going down early, ‘Frenchie’ came in and stepped up, ‘Bird’ played the way he is supposed to be playing. Everybody played their role tonight. That’s how we won.”

Denver’s more fluid offense is easily measured; they are 47-8 SU when they have 20 or more assists and 9-24 SU when fall below that figure. The Nuggets cannot afford anything less than the same work ethic and compulsion to team work if they expect to continue series and add to 7-3 ATS mark in the first round of postseason.

Utah is 8-2 ATS off a double digit defeat and did not match Denver’s intensity from last contest. “They were a lot more alive, they went after the ball a little harder than we did,” Utah coach Jerry Sloan said. “The players off the bench gave them a big lift. Their bench people killed us.”

Utah is up to a six-point home favorite, with the total at 215.5 and might face Denver club without Nene, whose been diagnosed with a sprained knee. The Jazz are 17-4 ATS off a road loss and will continue to keep the offense flowing thru Deron Williams, who became the first player in NBA history to record five straight 20-point/10-assist double-doubles to begin a series.

“Stuff was too easy (for the Nuggets),” Williams said. “We have to get back to playing our basketball.”

The odds are not in Denver’s favor with recent 1-8-1 ATS away slide, but if they want to force a deciding Game 7 at the Pepsi Center on Sunday, they will have to find a way.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-30-2010, 06:45 PM

Friday's Tip Sheet

**Hawks at Bucks**

--Milwaukee (49-38 straight up, 55-30-2 against the spread) has won three consecutive games to take a 3-2 series lead and move within one game of advancing to the second round for the first time since 2001, when ‘Big Dog’ Robinson, Sam Cassell and Ray Allen led the Bucks to the Eastern Conference finals before losing to Philadelphia. The Bucks captured a 91-87 come-from-behind win at Atlanta in Wednesday’s Game 5 at Philips Arena. They won outright as nine-point road underdogs.

--Atlanta (55-32 SU, 50-35-2 ATS) appears to be a team in turmoil right now. With Scott Skiles clearly outcoaching Mike Woodson with a team down a pair of starters, speculation about Woodson’s future with the franchise is running rampant through the city of Atlanta. Joe Johnson, who will be an unrestricted free agent and turned down a four-year $60 million extension before the season, seems to have one foot out the door. His post-game comments after a Game 4 loss at Milwaukee seemed to be directed at Josh Smith, who is signed through 2012-2013. After Game 5, Johnson called the loss “embarrassing.”

--Rookie guard Brandon Jennings continued to play like a seasoned veteran in Game 5, scoring a team-high 25 points. Luke Ridnour provided a huge lift off the bench, hitting 5-of-7 shots from the floor on his way to a 15-point effort in just 17 minutes of playing time. The Oregon product also had four steals. Veteran power forward Kurt Thomas has been doing the little things the last three games. He took the charge that fouled Joe Johnson out when Atlanta was still clinging to a one-point lead late in the fourth quarter. Carlos Delfino had a monster performance in Game 4 that he couldn’t duplicate back at Philps. However, he more than made up for just a seven-point effort by inserting the dagger with a clutch 3-pointer that gave his squad a four-point lead with just over a minute remaining.

--Most books are listing the Hawks as two-point favorites with the total in the 189-190 range. The Bucks are plus-110 on the money line at most spots (risk $100 to win $110).

--The Bucks owns a 30-13 SU record and a 26-16-1 ATS mark at home in the Bradley Center this year. They have been home underdogs seven times, compiling a 2-5 SU record and a 4-3 ATS ledger.

--Atlanta had missed the playoffs for nine consecutive seasons until making the postseason in 2008. This is the Hawks’ third straight year in the playoffs, but they are an atrocious 1-10 both SU and ATS in 11 road games over that span.

--The Hawks have gone 19-24 SU and 23-20 ATS in their 43 road outings.

--The ‘over’ is 24-18-1 in Milwaukee’s home games.

--The ‘over’ is 50-36-1 overall for the Hawks, 24-18-1 in their road assignments.

--Although the ‘under’ easily cashed in Game 5, the ‘over’ is on an 11-2 run in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams.

--ESPN will provide television coverage at 7:05 p.m. Eastern.

**Lakers at Thunder**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Oklahoma City (52-35 SU, 51-36 ATS) as a three-point favorite with a total of 195. As of Thursday night, most spots had the Thunder installed as a 1 ½-point ‘chalk’ with the total slightly reduced to 194 ½.

--Los Angeles (60-27 SU, 35-49-3 ATS) responded to road losses in Game 3 and 4 by dealing out woodshed treatment back at Staples Arena for Game 5 on Tuesday night. The Lakers jumped on the Thunder early and never let up, cruising to a 111-83 victory as six-point home favorites. The ‘over’ hit thanks to James Harden’s 3-pointer for OKC with eight seconds left that took the total off a push.

--Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum stepped up big in the Game 5 win. Gasol had 25 points and 11 rebounds, while Bynum finished with 21 points and 11 boards.

--Scott Brooks’ club is 29-14 SU and 24-19 ATS at home. The Thunder won Games 3 and 4 at home by the following scores: 101-96 and 110-89.

--The Lakers have gone 23-20 SU and 17-25-1 in their road games this season. They have been road underdogs 13 times, posting a 3-10 SU record and a 4-9 ATS mark.

--The ‘over’ is 46-38-3 overall for the Thunder, 21-20-2 in its home games.

--The ‘under’ has been a money maker for the Lakers this year, cashing at a 48-38-1 overall clip. They have seen the ‘under’ go 23-20 in their road assignments.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 9:35 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Nuggets at Jazz**

--LVSC opened Utah (56-31 SU, 52-32-3 ATS) as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 215 ½. As of Thursday night, most book had the Jazz favored by 4 ½ or five with the total up to 217 ½. Gamblers can take the Nuggets to win outright for a plus-175 payout (risk $100 to win $175).

--Denver (55-32 SU, 37-44-6 ATS) had lost three in a row until pulling away from Utah in the final stanza of Wednesday’s Game 5 back at the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets staved off elimination by collecting a 116-102 win as 7 ½-point home favorites. Carmelo Anthony scored 26 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, while J.R. Smith dropped in 17 points off the bench.

--Utah has been dynamite at home – as usual – this year, going 34-9 SU and 28-13-2 ATS. The Jazz won Games 3 (105-93) and 4 (117-106) back in Salt Lake City in rather easy fashion.

--The win for the Nuggets in Game 5 was bittersweet. For starters, head coach George Karl wasn’t there as he continues to battle cancer. Furthermore, Nene went down with a knee injury that’ll keep him out for at least Game 6 and probably the rest of the year. However, Thursday’s internet reports of a torn ACL proved to be untrue.

--Denver is 19-24 SU and 15-23-5 ATS in its road outings. The Nuggets have limped to a 1-8-1 ATS record in their last 10 road games.

--The ‘over’ is 47-38-2 overall for the Jazz, 23-19-1 in its home games.

--The ‘over’ is 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head encounters between these Western Conference adversaries.

--ESPN2 will have the telecast at 10:05 p.m. ET.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Who was being the bigger drama queen, Kobe not taking his first shot until several minutes into the second quarter of Game 4 at OKC or LeBron with his left-handed free throw to exaggerate his right elbow injury at the end of Game 5 vs. Chicago? I vote Kobe, but not by much.

--Atlanta sports radio host Steak Shapiro of 790 The Zone tweeted this Thursday night: Hawks by seven Friday night.

--What on earth was going through Dirk Nowitzki’s mind when he inexplicably committed his third foul early in the second quarter of Dallas’s game Thursday at San Antonio? Then just a few minutes later, Nowitzki was just as much of a knucklehead in drawing his fourth foul. Talk about a temporary loss of sanity…

**StarDust Bum** · 04-30-2010, 06:46 PM

Friday's Game of the Day

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Not Your Typical 1 vs. 8 Match-up

Oklahoma City won Game's 3 and 4 at home to knot the series up at two games apiece. The Lakers returned to Los Angeles on Tuesday and rocked the Thunder by 24 points (111-87) to put them within a game of closing out the series. Oklahoma City is 29-14 at home this season (24-19 ATS). Los Angeles is 23-20 on the road (18-24-1 ATS).

Head-to-Head

The Thunder prevented a regular season sweep by winning the final meeting on Mar. 26 against the Lakers, 91-75. That win seemed to give them a sense of confidence against Los Angeles. OKC now needs a win to force a Game 7 on Sunday.

In Tuesday’s Game 5, Oklahoma City recorded just seven fastbreak points after recording 72 in the first four games. The Thunder made it to the line 24 times (making 18) in Game 5 after 80 free throw attempts in Game's 3 and 4 alone.

The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five encounters. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings in Oklahoma City.

We’ve seen home-court advantage play a huge role in this series. Will OKC continue their dominance at home? Or will Los Angeles steal one and close out the series on the road?

Win or Go Home

The Lakers made some key adjustments in Game 5 by swapping Bryant off of Kevin Durant and putting him on Russell Westbrook. It threw off Westbrook and drained less of Bryant’s energy on defense.

Westbrook averaged 21.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists while making more than 55 percent of his shots in the first four games. In game 5 however, Bryant harassed Westbrook into a 4-for-13 shooting while forcing eight turnovers

"That's Kobe," Westbrook said. "That's who he is. That's why he's probably the best player in the league."

NBA coach of the year Scott Brooks has been masterful by coming up with adjustments in this series. He’s done a good job of coming up with schemes to stop Kobe, holding him to 21.8 PPG this series (-5.2 PPG off regular season average. They’ve also held the Lakers to just 95.6 PPG, keeping them under 100 points in four of five games of this series.

The Thunder has done a great job against Bryant at home, holding him to 15 of 39 shooting (38%) and 36 points.

Sometimes wins can’t be assessed with stats. In all the games this series, the home crowd has certainly made a bigger difference than stats can analyze. The electricity at Ford Center overwhelmed the Lakers in Game's 3 and 4. And the buzz around Staples Center in Game 5 seemed to lift the Lakers to a blowout victory.

Los Angeles Lakers

Ask Los Angeles’ coach Phil Jackson what the key to winning game five against the Thunder and he’ll give you a rather simple answer.

Said Jackson: "It was just raw energy. That's all there it was to it."

They stormed out to an early lead and sustained it thanks to dominance in the paint (Gasol and Bynum combined for 46 points) and Kobe Bryant's suffocating defense on Russell Westbrook (Westbrook was 4-of-13 from the floor), and an efficient contribution from Lamar Odom and Ron Artest. This isn't a make-or-break game for the Lakers. Should they need it, the seventh and deciding game would take place Sunday at Staples Center. And history appears to be on the Lakers' side; the Lakers are 17-0 after winning Game 5 at home. Still, the Lakers would surely like to end this series sooner rather than later.

"We don't want to try to stretch this out," Lakers forward Pau Gasol said, "and give them another chance."

But the biggest difference in Game 5 was the amount of rest in between games. The Lakers looked old and slow in Game 4 but with a couple of days off, they bounced back to get a blowout victory in game 5. Once again, they get a couple of days off to prepare for game 6.

"I think it helped all of us, not just from a physical standpoint, but more so even just from a strategic standpoint of really gaining an understanding of the things that happened the first three or four games and what we could do going into the fifth game that could work well for us as a group," Derek Fisher said. "Having that extra day to think about offensively, some things we could do better, defensively, whether we want to adjust matchups the way we did, I think all of those things work to our advantage having the extra day.

"We know they're going to come back strong, make their own adjustments and come back with their best game in front of their fans,” Kobe Bryant added, “so we've got to improve even more."

Key Statistical Information – Away/Home Comparisons

Points per Game
Los Angeles: +0.3 PPG
Oklahoma City: +5.9 PPG

Field Goal Percentage
Los Angeles: +0.5%
Oklahoma City: +3.0%

Rebounding
Los Angeles: +1.1 RPG
Oklahoma City: +3.7 RPG

Trends

Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.

Oklahoma City is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 2 days rest.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-30-2010, 06:47 PM

Diamond Trends - Friday

Athletics at Blue Jays – The Athletics are 7-2 since May 07, 2009 when Trevor Cahill starts after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $595.

Astros at Braves – The Astros are 0-8 since April 10, 2009 on the road when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $820 when playing against. The Astros are 0-6 since May 30, 2009 on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $650 when playing against. The League is 10-0 since October 07, 2009 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1075

Reds at Cardinals – The Reds are 6-1 since April 22, 2009 when Johnny Cueto starts as a dog vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $680

Diamondbacks at Cubs – The Diamondbacks are 0-10 since April 28, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Cubs are 10-0 since August 23, 2009 vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1190. The Cubs are 0-5 since April 23, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $795 when playing against.

Pirates at Dodgers – The Pirates are 0-12 since July 10, 2009 as a road dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $1200 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-6 since July 01, 2009 as a dog after scoring 3 runs or less and winning for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Dodgers are 10-0 since June 05, 2009 as a favorite vs a team that has won at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000. The Dodgers are 9-0 since July 18, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900.

Rockies at Giants – The Rockies are 0-7 since April 18, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Giants are 5-0 since July 28, 2009 when Barry Zito starts at home after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $540.

Twins at Indians – The Twins are 6-0 since April 25, 2009 when Kevin Slowey starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $645. The Indians are 5-0 since September 25, 2009 when Fausto Carmona starts vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $595.

Rangers at Mariners – The Mariners are 6-0 since June 03, 2009 as a home favorite after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $600. The Mariners are 6-0 since June 07, 2009 as a favorite after a win in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings for a net profit of $600.

Nationals at Marlins – The Nationals are 0-9 since April 17, 2009 as a dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Nationals are 4-0 since June 18, 2009 as a 170+ dog after a one run win for a net profit of $865.

Red Sox at Orioles – The League is 9-0 since September 22, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900. The Red Sox are 6-0 since July 24, 2009 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600. The Orioles are 0-9 since June 29, 2009 as a home 140+ dog when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $900 when playing against.

Brewers at Padres – The Brewers are 5-0 since July 29, 2009 after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $610. The Padres are 6-0 since May 20, 2009 at home after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $660.

Mets at Phillies – The Mets are 0-11 since May 17, 2009 on the road when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $1180 when playing against. The Mets are 0-8 since July 03, 2009 on the road after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Phillies are 0-4 since April 15, 2010 as a favorite after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $630 when playing against.

Royals at Rays – The Royals are 0-7 since September 24, 2009 as a dog after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Rays are 7-0 since June 14, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700.

Angels at Tigers – The Angels are 7-0 since August 31, 2009 as a favorite after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $700. The Tigers are 6-0 since June 07, 2009 at home after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $600.

White Sox at Yankees – The Yankees are 7-0 since June 16, 2009 after shutting out their opponent for a net profit of $700. The Yankees are 11-0 since August 09, 2009 when Andy Pettitte starts as a favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $1100.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-30-2010, 06:48 PM

Friday's Tip Sheet

The Friday night baseball card provides bettors with several surprise teams looking to make more money. Two of the teams with the best records in the National League are the Mets (13-9) and Padres (13-8), while the Dodgers, Braves, Brewers, and Cubs all sit below .500. There aren't many surprises in the American League as the top teams are the Rays, Yankees, Twins, and Angels, while the Red Sox sit at 11-11. We'll start in Philadelphia as the Phillies return home to host the red-hot Mets.

Mets at Phillies - 7:05 PM EST

New York is starting to hit its stride with seven straight home victories, as the Mets and Phillies meet up for the first time this season. The Mets are coming off series wins over the Braves, Cubs, and Dodgers, while winning nine of ten. The Phillies avoided a sweep with a come-from-behind win at San Francisco on Wednesday.

This isn't exactly an ace showdown on the mound, as Jonathon Niese and Kyle Kendrick toe the rubber. Niese has turned in two solid performances in a pair of no-decisions against the Cubs and Braves. The lefty allowed two runs (one earned) and 13 hits despite pitching just 10.1 innings, as the Mets won both of his previous two starts. Niese has not faced the Phillies in his career, while making only his fourth road start since 2008.

Kendrick has put together just one quality outing in four trips to the mound this season, replacing the injured Joe Blanton. Kendrick has given up 16 earned runs in two starts against the Nationals and one outing at Arizona, boosting his ERA to 7.71. The Phillies have provided the righty with plenty of run support, tallying seven runs/game for Kendrick. Philadelphia beat New York last September as Kendrick scattered seven hits and two earned runs in 7.1 innings in a 5-4 victory.

The Phillies captured 12 of 18 meetings last season from the beat-up Mets, including a 7-2 mark at Citizens Bank Park. New York has finished 'under' the total in nine of the last 14 games, as the Mets are playing only their seventh road game of the season.

Angels at Tigers - 7:10 PM EST

Detroit and Los Angeles meet up for the second time in ten days after the two clubs split a four-game set in Anaheim. The Angels grabbed the first two games before the Tigers rallied for the final two victories, each coming by a run apiece. The Halos open up a ten-game, three-city road trip that goes from Detroit to Boston and wrapping up in Seattle.

Joel Pineiro pitched a gem the last time he saw the Tigers, scattering nine hits in seven scoreless innings as the Angels shut out Detroit, 2-0 on April 19. Pineiro struggled for the first time in an Angels uniform as the Yankees tagged the righty for six runs and 11 hits in a 7-1 New York victory last Saturday. Dating back to last season as a member of the Cardinals, Pineiro's teams are 9-3 when he starts on the road.

The Tigers send out Rick Porcello to the hill, looking for his first win since April 9. Porcello will be looking forward to returning home after a pair of disastrous road losses at the Rangers and Angels. The righty was knocked around by the Halos in a 6-5 setback, allowing six earned runs and eight hits in 4.1 innings. Porcello picked up a no-decision in a 9-6 win over the Angels last June at home, as he gave up four earned runs and five hits in five innings.

The Tigers are 0-5 the last five series openers, while the Angels are 5-2 in series starters this season. Similarly to the Mets, the Halos are heading on the road for just their seventh away contest of the season.

Rangers at Mariners - 10:10 PM EST

Cliff Lee makes his much-anticipated Seattle debut on Friday at Safeco Field after missing the first month of the season with a strained abdominal muscle. Lee and the Mariners return home following a 2-4 road trip as Seattle grabbed the final two games at Kansas City. The Rangers head to the Pacific Northwest after a 4-3 homestand against the Tigers and White Sox.

The last time the Rangers saw Lee was on Opening Day last season in Arlington. Coming off a Cy Young Award in 2008, the ex-Indian was lit up by the Rangers in a 9-1 defeat, allowing seven earned runs and ten hits in five innings of work. Lee finished 7-4 over the last three months of 2009 as a member of the Phillies, including a 4-0 postseason mark. In seven career starts at Safeco Field, the Indians went 6-1 in Lee's outings, including a 12-3 victory last July in his final start in a Cleveland uniform.

Colby Lewis gets the ball for Texas, looking for his fourth victory of the season. Lewis has recorded ten strikeouts each in victories over the Indians and Tigers, while the righty allowed one earned run in seven innings of a 6-2 win over the Mariners on April 9. The righty has turned into a workhorse by tossing at least 100 pitches in each of his first four starts, while leading this Rangers staff in victories.

Texas captured two of three against Seattle at home earlier this month, with the lone Mariners' victory coming with a three-run rally in the ninth. Seattle is 5-2 the last seven meetings with Texas at Safeco Field, with the 'under' going 4-2-1 in this span.

Rockies at Giants - 10:15 PM EST

San Francisco continues its nine-game homestand, going for a third straight series victory after topping St. Louis and Philadelphia. The Giants host the Rockies for the first time this season, looking to bounce back from Wednesday's late meltdown to the Phillies in extra-innings.

Tim Lincecum was pitching a gem, tossing 8.1 innings of flawless baseball while leaving Wednesday's game with a 4-1 lead. Jayson Werth's three-run double barely squeezed inside the right-field line to tie the game and force extras. The Phillies eventually won, 7-6 in 11 innings to avoid the sweep. Now, the Giants send out their second-most reliable pitcher of the season against the Rockies.

Barry Zito owns a sterling 3-0 mark with an ERA of 1.32, following years of struggles in the month of April. Since 2007, Zito was 0-9 in April prior to his sudden improvement in the first month of the season. The former Cy Young Award winner has given up just four earned runs in four outings, capped off by a ten-strikeout performance in a 2-0 blanking of the Cardinals his last time out. Zito beat the Rockies in three of four of outings last season, with all three victories coming at AT&T Park.

The Rockies send out Aaron Cook to the hill, looking to capitalize off a complete-game victory over the Marlins. Cook had allowed 12 earned runs in his first four starts before beating Florida, but his road ERA has ballooned to 9.72. Cook's previous five starts against the Giants have come at Coors Field, as the righty last pitched by the Bay in April 2008. The veteran has lasted past the seventh inning in five of the last seven starts against the Giants, as the Rockies are 4-3 in this stretch.

The home team finished 13-5 last season in this series, while the Giants went 10-8. Despite Colorado going to the postseason in 2009, San Francisco stayed alive in the playoff race with five wins over the Rockies in the last six meetings at home.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-30-2010, 06:50 PM

Penguins-Canadiens Outlook

No. 4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. No. 8 Montreal Canadiens

Series Price: Pittsburgh -500, Montreal +425

Series Format: Pittsburgh, 2-2-1-1-1

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU PUCK LINE HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER
48-26-14 56-33 21-18-5 22-17-6 37-47-5
51-29-8 32-56 26-13-5 25-16-3 43-44-1

2009-10 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
02/06/10 Pittsburgh 3 @ Montreal 5 (+130) OVER 5.5
12/10/09 Pittsburgh 3 (-150) @ Montreal 2 UNDER 5.5
11/25/09 Montreal 1 @ Pittsburgh 3 (-230) UNDER 5.5
10/28/09 Montreal 1 @ Pittsburgh 6 (-200) OVER 5.5

Skinny: The Penguins may have had a lackadaisical regular season, but they find themselves back in the second round in the playoffs. Pittsburgh did have a much tougher go of it against the Senators, needing six games to put away the fifth seeds.

Of course, how can anyone stop a team with the talented bunch of forwards Pittsburgh has at its disposal. Sidney Crosby was the league’s top goal scorer, lighting the lamp 51 times this season. And he came through with five goals and nine assists against Ottawa in the last round. Evgeni Malkin was a bit off during the regular season (28 goals, 49 assists) for what we’re used to seeing out of him. But Malkin has roared back in the playoffs (4 goals, 4 assists), while Jordan Stall (1 goal, 2 assists) has been a little slow to get into the fold.

Marc-Andre Fleury did posted a respectable 2.75 goals against average against the Senators. But a .890 save percentage has to make even the most ardent fan a little nervous.

Montreal is now officially playing with house money after making the Capitals look stupid in a seven game upset in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinal. The Canadiens may have looked like an offensive juggernaut in the series with 20 goals being scored in the playoffs, but they made their hay on special teams.

The Habs stuffed Washington on 32 of its 33 power play chances in the last round. Only the Bruins can boast a better penalty kill in the playoffs. Montreal’s greatest penalty killer is also the man that has been getting all the attention on television, goaltender Jaroslav Halak.

Halak allowed the vaunted Washington offense to put the puck past him just three times on 134 shots in the final three games of the series. Not bad for a guy that was yanked after giving up three goals in 29 minutes in Game 3.

When you have a goalie playing like Halak has been, it gives your undersized offense the chance to make things happen. Mike Cammalleri was on fire in the first round, scoring five goals and five assists against the Caps. Meanwhile, Tomas Plekanec posted four goals and three helpers himself.

Pittsburgh did hold a definitive 3-1 record in the four head-to-head meetings. Yet none of those games were held after coming back from the Winter Olympics. The Penguins did win their home tests against Montreal in big enough fashion to cover the puck line. But we cannot forget that Les Habitants won three of the four games they played in Washington’s Verizon Center in the last round.

Gambling Notes: While I’m not an oddsmaker, it’s safe to say Montreal will be posted as an underdog in most of the games in this series. Now we can’t say that they’ll have the same success that they did against the Caps. What I can tell you is that the Habs will keep it close most of the time, evidenced by a 48-16 record on the puck line as underdogs.

Pittsburgh has gone 9-4 in 13 games as a favorite against Northeast Division foes this season. Against the puck line, however, they are just 3-10 in those tests.

Outlook: Is it possible that Halak can plan on his head for the second straight series? Sure. Is it possible for Fleury to misplay the puck in a close game situation? Damn right.

Montreal just doesn’t have the defensive acumen to hold down the Penguins’ top forwards in this series on a consistent basis. Pittsburgh will dominate this series in five games.

**poskid** · 04-30-2010, 08:51 PM

Love your NBA sides for the night. The only one I couldnt get a real play on was Utah though I would have leaned that way. BOL SDB!!!

PK

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