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**StarDust Bum** · 04-29-2010, 01:15 PM

Profiting from base hits

While going thru Bill James 2010 “Gold Mine” book, came across statistical information that only baseball nuts would enjoy.

Part of James wisdom is taking something simple and applying it in common sense manner. For example if you score more runs than your opponent you will win 100 percent of the time. Pretty straight forward.

The article went on to talk above the value of base hits. No discussion of home runs, doubles, walks or even on-base percentage, just hitting the ball where the fielder cannot catch it.

Last season if you take away the all games that each team had the same number of hits in a ballgame; the final record was 1,766-433, a winning percentage of .803 for the club with more base hits in a single contest.

The light bulb switch went on in my dome and I started to wonder how this plays out for wagering purposes.

Pulled out all 30 teams’ home games (no reason to road contests since it’s the same) and looked to see what kind of profits are to be found in this fact-finding mission.

The most obvious aspect uncovered is there is a lot of money to be made by correctly determining the team that will have the higher amount of hits.
In the National League, teams with most base knocks are 105-34, 75.5 percent this season (thru 4-27). This generates a profit of +70.05 units. It goes without saying nobody is going to wager on every baseball game every day, still not many systems of any kind are going to yield these sorts of profits looking at each contest. How this ends up being such a money-maker is of the 105 wins, 37 were underdogs, help building the bankroll.

In the American League, the news is even better despite fewer games because of two less teams. Here we have an overall record of 89-25, 78.0 percent, yielding a handsome profit +70.25. Once again a healthy number of underdogs were part of the equation, as 36 of 89 winners were not favored.

In the interest of disclosure, this sample is just from April and no real way to know if these profits would hold up over a whole season, but based on “Gold Mine’s” findings, no reason to believe they shouldn’t.

Our next step is identifying how one could determine what teams will out-hit their opponents. Let’s start with taking swings at the dish.

Major League clubs that are near or above the median levels of batting average and have three or more games with nine or more hits have to be considered a play on team. When teams have this many base hits consistently, that probably means three players in the line-up are stroking it and as is the case of most hitting streaks, they can go along for about a week seeing the ball really well.

Conversely, when teams are totaling six or fewer hits for a few outings, this might be the time to play against them since they are likely swinging at pitcher’s pitches and being less selective, getting themselves out if you will.

Another factor is once a series of events has occurred, there is likely to be a reaction to them. Much of this is following detail. On April 17, the San Francisco Giants destroyed the Dodgers 9-0. Over the next seven games they total 11 runs and had a stretch of four games in the middle section where they had seven or fewer hits four times. In the last contest of the seven, they were shutout 2-0 by Brad Penny and the Cardinals, but showed signs of breaking out of slump with nine hits.

No question conventional wisdom would have suggested San Francisco would have a difficult time with Roy Halladay in town in next outing, however in the bigger picture, Jonathan Sanchez of the Giants had permitted 11 hits in 19.3 innings and Philadelphia had been outhit in all three games in Arizona. If you saw this entire view, the Giants at +135 home underdog becomes far more attractive and they won 5-1.

Another example of finding value with teams swinging the lumber was Baltimore on Tuesday night. The Orioles have the worst team in the Major’s and their most recent streak had reached five straight losses playing in Boston.

Baltimore started to show signs of coming out of this deep slumber with back to back nine hit games, though they only totaled four runs. After those two games they had 17 players hit their way on base, but lost 7-6 this past Saturday. That was three strong days hitting the baseball and they finally broke into the win column as +140 underdogs with 7-6 triumph, ripping 14 more hits.

It certainly would take a strong cup of courage, but here the O’s stood at 3-16, playing at home where they had not won a game (0-6) this season and were +155 underdogs to the Yankees.

However, weigh these elements. Baltimore was swing hot bats, they wanted to win at home against a tormenting team and despite their starter Kevin Millwood having 0-3 record, he had a 3.38 ERA going in the contest as his teammates had scored eight runs in his four starts in 2010. The Birds were outhit 9-7 by New York, but their increased patience at the dish produced six walks and the O’s were a very rewarding 5-4 winner as large ML pooch.

The other area to consider is the pitchers. This is a more complicated discussion because of the variables.

Hurlers that allow fewer hits than innings pitched and have modest walk totals are good wagers, especially with above average strikeout to walk ratios.

Starting pitchers that keep the hits down and have a history of being successful on the road are a terrific value as underdogs or small favorites. Pitching matchups also lend themselves to winning.

Any sports bettor loves an ace vs. a No. 5 starter, unfortunately that comes at a cost, namely a high money line. If the team’s No. 1 guy is backed by his club smacking the horsehide when he’s on the mound, the run line becomes more attractive option.

Better value can often be found when the No. 2 or 3 starter is facing a worst starting pitcher on the other team and as long as the presumed favorite is in good form and the better pitcher is not slumping, this too can be a smart wager.

There are many other scenarios, but one last important aspect to think about is the bullpen. Everything can be in order, yet a lousy bullpen with gruesome ERA and a vast number of blown saves can turn winners into losers quickly, be cognizant of this material.

To wrap this up, hitting the ball around the yard can lead to more winners than you thought possible. Stay current with the numbers and you can build your bankroll more rapidly.

One final bit of information from James book. When a team outhits the other by nine or more coming into this season, they are 197-0 all time.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-29-2010, 01:15 PM

Terrific Totals System in Houston

After a 0-8 start to 2010, the Astros finally got off the launching pad and won eight of their next 10 to have a respectable record for April. Unfortunately the next opponent after the hot stretch was Cincinnati, their kryptonite when they start to play like Superman.

The Reds were off a .500 homestand but just the thought of those Houston uniforms gave the Astros a feeling of superiority. Cincinnati has won the first two games of this series taking their record to 11-1 against the Stros, with six wins in seven tries at Minute Maid Park.

Tonight’s situation doesn’t set up nearly as well for the Reds, facing their greatest nemesis. Houston’s offense is laughable, ranked last in runs scored at 3.3 per game and on-base percentage of .285, but that hardly matters with Roy Oswalt (2-2, 2.42 ERA) pitching. The right-hander is 23-1 lifetime against Cincinnati with a 2.58 ERA. When dressed in the home whites, Oswalt is perfect 12-0 in 16 starts with even lower earned run average of 2.26.

Oswalt will be opposed by Bronson Arroyo (0-2, 7.43), who is like a Moen faucet, he runs hot and cold. Presently he is in the near frozen category, but his manager has seen this before.

“We’ve covered this before,” Dusty Baker said. “He’ll go through a few starts where he struggles, then he’ll reel off seven or eight in a row. I hope this is the end of the bad streak.”

Arroyo is 4-0 in last four starts against Houston, with razor-sharp 1.69 ERA and two complete games.

Houston is a -170 money line favorite at Bookmaker.com; however the important number is the total which is 7.5 for this super situation.

Play Under on home teams when the total is 7 to 8.5, with a repugnant offensive scoring less than 4.1 runs per game, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, facing a NL pitcher with ERA of 5.70 or higher.

Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average first climbed above 8,000 (1997), this totals system is 38-13. For additional reinforcement, Arroyo is 13-2 UNDER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game and Houston is 27-12 UNDER the first month of the season the last two years.

Take a long look at this highly profitable baseball system.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-29-2010, 01:16 PM

Tigers and Twins in afternoon action

The Detroit Tigers wouldn’t mind stringing some wins together. Especially against the Minnesota Twins. Coming off a big offensive effort against the AL Central leaders, the Tigers try for a second straight victory to take their home series with the Twins on Thursday.

After being held to five hits in a 2-0 loss to Minnesota (14-7, +5.7 units) in Tuesday’s opener, Detroit rallied to even the set with an 11-6 win Wednesday.

The Tigers (12-10, +1.5) have alternated wins and losses over their last six games since winning two in a row April 21-22. Magglio Ordonez had three hits with three RBIs, while Brandon Inge homered and also drove in three runs as the Tigers overcame a 6-1 deficit thanks to a six-run sixth inning Wednesday.

“We’ve had a few comebacks, and that’s been pretty important for us,” Tigers manager Jim Leyland said. “But we can’t keep expecting to do this.” Nonetheless Detroit it 18-4 in home games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last three seasons.

Thankfully for Leyland’s club, they were able to tag Minnesota’s Scott Baker for five runs in four innings Wednesday. The Tigers hope to get the best of Twins’ scheduled starter Carl Pavano in this contest.

Pavano (3-1, 4.24 ERA, 1.114 WHIP) allowed two runs, four hits and didn’t walk a batter over seven innings of an 8/3 win at Kansas City on Friday. It was a far better outing than his previous effort when he gave up seven runs in 3 1/3 innings of a 10-5 home loss to the Royals on April 18. What has helped the right-hander is avoiding trouble which he has done thanks to 17 strikeouts and just one walk.

The former Florida Marlin, among other teams, is 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA in six career starts against the Tigers, but allowed seven runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 7-2 loss in his last trip to Detroit and is 25-14 after a game where he did not walk a batter. (Team's Record)

A .328 lifetime hitter against the Twins and one hit shy of 2,000 for his career, Ordonez is 6 for 14 with two doubles against Pavano. Johnny Damon has also hit Pavano well, going 5 for 12. Damon is batting .400 (22 for 55) during a 15-game hitting streak.

The Tigers hope Dontrelle Willis (0-1, 5.00, 1.722) can give them a strong effort when he takes the mound Thursday. Willis, who missed his last scheduled start Saturday at Texas because of the flu, allowed two runs and walked three in an inning of relief in an 8-4 loss to the Rangers on Sunday.

In his last start on April 19, Willis allowed two runs in six innings of a 2-0 loss at Los Angeles. The left-hander has one win in 19 appearances since joining the Tigers in 2008. Willis gave up four runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 14-10, 13-inning loss at Minnesota in his only start against the Twins on May 13. In his career Willis is 11-24 (-20.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out six or less times a contest. (Team's Record)

Jim Thome hit his fourth home run and Jason Kubel had three hits Wednesday for the Twins, who’ll try to bounce back after losing two of three. “This is a tough one, because when it was 6-1, it looked like we had the game under control,” said Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, who was ejected for arguing a call.

Though Thome is 11 for 32 with five homers and 11 RBIs in his last 11 games against the Tigers, star Justin Morneau is expected to be out of the Twins’ lineup for a second straight game with a stiff back.

Bookmaker.com has the Twins as -140 ML favorites with total Ov9.5; however they are just 21-42 on the road against left-handed starters and 22-8 OVER revenging a loss where they allowed 10 or more runs since 2008. The Tigers are not well-versed in the underdog role with 37-70 mark in the numbers range of +100 to +150 and is 22-10 OVER when bullpen ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games.

This matinee is concluding game of the series and has a 1:05 Eastern start.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-29-2010, 01:20 PM

Diamond Trends - Thursday

Reds at Astros – The Astros are 5-0 since June 01, 2009 when Roy Oswalt starts as a home favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $500

Athletics at Blue Jays – The Athletics are 5-0 since July 31, 2009 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $595. The Blue Jays are 0-7 since July 17, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $805 when playing against.

Braves at Cardinals – The Braves are 0-6 since June 16, 2009 when Jair Jurrjens starts after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $890 when playing against.

Diamondbacks at Cubs – The League is 0-9 since October 02, 2009 as a road 140+ dog after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 0-8 since May 27, 2009 as a 140+ dog after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Cubs are 7-0 since May 07, 2009 when Ted Lilly starts as a 140+ favorite after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $700. The Cubs are 0-6 since August 31, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $930 when playing against.

Pirates at Dodgers – The Pirates are 0-11 since July 04, 2009 on the road when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1100 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-7 since May 26, 2009 on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Dodgers are 11-0 since June 29, 2009 as a home favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1100. The Dodgers are 0-4 since July 24, 2009 when Clayton Kershaw starts as a home favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $710 when playing against.

Yankees at Orioles – The League is 0-7 since October 01, 2009 as a 170+ dog when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-6 since April 18, 2009 as a 170+ dog after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Brewers at Padres – The League is 6-0 since August 14, 2009 as a road dog after an extra inning loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $910.

White Sox at Rangers – The White Sox are 0-6 since May 05, 2009 when Gavin Floyd starts as a road dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Rangers are 0-5 since June 18, 2009 at home after a one run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $685 when playing against. The Rangers are 5-0 since May 23, 2009 when Scott Feldman starts as a favorite when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $500

Royals at Rays – The Royals are 11-0 since August 13, 2009 on the road when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $1470. The Rays are 11-0 since May 03, 2009 as a home favorite when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $1100.

Twins at Tigers – The Tigers are 0-6 since July 11, 2009 at home after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $750 when playing against.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-29-2010, 01:20 PM

Thursday Afternoon Tips

Getaway day in baseball involves four matinee battles with several teams ready to leave town. Three series wrap up while the Cubs and Diamondbacks open up a new set at Wrigley Field. The struggling Braves look to end their road woes in St. Louis against the Cardinals. We'll start in the Motor City as the Twins and Tigers conclude their AL Central showdown at Comerica Park.

Twins at Tigers - 1:05 PM EST

Two of the aces from the 2003 World Championship Marlins squad oppose each other on the hill as Detroit and Minnesota hook up. Tiger slayer Carl Pavano looks to beat Detroit for the sixth time in seven tries, while Dontrelle Willis tries to break through the win column for the first time this season.

Pavano was acquired by the Twins last season to help silence the Tigers' offense en route to the AL Central title. The veteran righty tossed five quality starts against Detroit in 2009, leading to a 5-1 edge in the series, including three wins as a member of the Indians. Pavano has delivered three quality outings this season, as well as a 3-1 mark and ERA of 4.24, while walking just one.

Willis is trying to reclaim the magic of his 2005 campaign in which the lanky lefty won 22 games and finished second in the NL Cy Young Award voting. Since 2006, D-Train has won just 23 games, including one as a member of the Tigers. Willis has put together a pair of quality starts on the road this month, but the southpaw has walked more batters (10) than struck out (9). In his only meeting against the Twins, Willis allowed four earned runs and eight hits in 4.2 innings of a 14-10 loss last May.

Minnesota has been dynamite away from Target Field this season, winning eight of the last ten on the highway, including Tuesday's 2-0 shutout. Detroit has gone 'over' the total in four of the last five at home, while going 4-1-1 to the 'over' in the last six overall.

Braves at Cardinals - 1:40 EST

Atlanta can't get out of its own way following an impressive start, as the Braves try to end their road trip on a winning note in St. Louis. The Cardinals send out one of their two aces to the hill to finish off the series as Adam Wainwright looks to bounce back from his first loss of the season.

Wainwright owns a sterling 1.69 ERA to go along with four quality starts and 3-1 mark. The Cardinals' righty was receiving tremendous run support through his first three wins (5.3 runs/game), but the Redbirds were blanked, 2-0 by Barry Zito and the Giants in Wainwright's last time out. The Cards are 14-4 the last 18 starts made by Wainwright when St. Louis lost his previous outing.

Jair Jurrjens hasn't won a game through four starts this season, even though Atlanta is 2-2 in his outings. Jurrjens is coming off consecutive quality outings against the Rockies and Mets, but failed to register a win each time. The Braves' righty has struggled during day starts, compiling an 0-2 mark with an ERA of 7.00. The 'under' has been a profitable play for Jurrjens as a road underdog, hitting the 'under' in eight of the last ten in this spot.

Both these pitchers have turned in fantastic performances against their opponent, as the Cards are 4-0 in Wainwright's four career starts versus the Braves. Atlanta is just 1-2 in Jurrjens' three starts against St. Louis, but the righty turned in a six-hit effort in eight scoreless innings of a 1-0 win at Busch Stadium last September.

White Sox at Rangers - 2:05 PM EST

A pair of below .500 teams finish up a three-game set in Arlington as the White Sox look to improve on a 2-6 road mark. Chicago sends out struggling righty Gavin Floyd to the mound to oppose another stumbling starter in Texas right-hander Scott Feldman.

Floyd has allowed 16 earned runs in his last three starts (13.1 IP), including 11 earned runs in two road outings. The worst part is Floyd has been lit up by two of the worst offenses in the American League (Cleveland and Seattle), as Texas ranks a notch above those teams. Floyd has made only two career starts against the Rangers, with both coming in Arlington. The righty was racked his last time in Texas, giving up six earned runs in 2.2 innings of a 7-2 loss in July 2008.

Feldman was the ace of the Rangers' staff last season, but has failed to find that form recently. The right-hander delivered a pair of gems at home against the Mariners and Blue Jays, but was chased early in each of the last two starts versus the Yankees and Tigers. Feldman allowed 12 runs (eight earned) in just six innings of the last two outings, both Rangers losses.

Following four consecutive 'overs,' the White Sox have finished 'under' in each of the last two games, while the Rangers are 8-2 the last ten home meetings in this series.

Diamondbacks at Cubs - 2:20 PM EST

Chicago looks to bounce back after dropping two of three to Washington, as the Cubs open up a four-game set at Wrigley Field against the D-Backs. Arizona is coming off a wild 12-11 victory in ten innings at Colorado on Wednesday, taking two of three from the Rockies. The Cubs send out Ted Lilly for his home debut of the season, trying to capitalize off a victory at Milwaukee on Saturday.

Lilly scattered three hits in six scoreless innings against the Brewers after missing the first three weeks of the season recovering from arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder. The Cubs were 11-2 in Lilly's 13 starts as a home favorite last season, while going 'under' the total in 16 of the last 18 at Wrigley as home 'chalk.' Lilly has faced the D-Backs just once at home as a member of the Cubs, shutting down Arizona in a three-hit, seven-inning effort as Chicago cruised to a 10-3 victory back in May 2008.

Ian Kennedy has failed to win a game in four starts with the D-Backs, as Arizona has lost each of his last three outings. The ex-Yankee is coming off his most productive start in Arizona, holding the powerful Phillies offense to four hits and two earned runs in eight innings of work, but Philadelphia pulled out a 3-2 win. After giving up nine earned runs in his first 9.1 innings to start the season, Kennedy has yielded just two earned runs over the last 13 innings.

The 'over' has cashed in six of the last eight for the D-Backs, while the 'under' has gone 8-2-2 in the previous 12 games for the Cubs.

**tech fan** · 04-29-2010, 05:36 PM

Gl buddy

**StarDust Bum** · 04-29-2010, 07:13 PM

NHL Playoff Betting Preview – Western Conference Semis

All four series favorites captured their first round conflicts and moved on to the next round. This sets up a pair of excellent matchups and each is expected to be a long series. Oddsmakers really have these teams bunched to emerge as finalist in the Stanley Cup from the West. Off their still unsteady play, San Jose is no longer the favorite in the Western Conference, as they and Detroit are both +250 to play for Stanley Cup. Chicago is the new choice at +200 with Vancouver all not the far behind at +300. All lines courtesy of Sportsbook.com.

(1) San Jose vs (5) Detroit

San Jose might be the series favorite, but that is only because they would have four home games if the series went the limit.

These are two teams that know each other well, as coach Todd McLellan was on the Detroit staff until taking the San Jose job two years ago. McLellan installed the puck-possession style that has made the Red Wings so difficult to beat for more than decade.

If the Sharks really expect to make the West Finals, their top line cannot continue to be faulty like they have been for several years in the spring. Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton once again added almost nothing and linemate Danny Heatley was not or is not 100 percent. Joe Pavelski’s line saved the Sharks from upset (22 points in series), however Detroit is world’s better than Colorado, especially at playoff time.

Veteran netminder Evgeni Nabokov was beaten twice by his own teammates, yet still conceded just 1.76 goals allowed with .926 save percentage. San Jose needs fast start and is 31-14 playing against a team with a winning record this season.

The NHL didn’t do the Red Wings any favors, having them start this next series less than 48 hours after finishing off Phoenix in Game 7. Thou Detroit had a couple of off games on home ice, they out-scored the Coyotes 17-6 winning the last three contests in the desert and they will have psychological edge over San Jose, based on performance after the regular season concludes.

While clichés are frowned upon into today’s world, they still work. Detroit’s best players have knack for playing their best when needed (something San Jose’s don’t), with Henrik Zetterberg’s 11 points being the finest example.

Netminder Jimmy Howard had plenty of uncomfortable moments against Phoenix, but when he made snap glove save on the first shot from the Coyotes in Game 7, it was apparent he was locked in. San Jose has a great deal more talented snipers that can bury the puck in the net and Howard will need Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski and other defensemen to keep the pressure off him. Since the Olympic break, the Wings are 20-8.

Detroit took three of four during the regular season and has won six of last eight at HP Pavilion in San Jose dating back to playoffs on May 2, 2007. This is where pedigree counts and the Red Wings have it.

Pick- Detroit (-105) in six over San Jose (-125)

(3)Vancouver vs (2) Chicago

A pair of Western Conference division champions will clash in this round. This is a rematch from one season ago and both teams believe anything less than visit to the Cup finals would be a major disappointment.

Thus far the two teams have been a mirror image of one another. Each started the playoffs sluggishly losing two of three and went on to win the last three contests and bring momentum into this round.

Vancouver can live up to their dreams as long as the Sedin brothers stay at their best. Just a few seasons ago Daniel and Henrik were considers postseason pushovers, no more, as they scored five goals and added 13 assists between them. They were involved in every meaningful goal against Los Angeles and will have to continue to dominate if they want to extract revenge on Chicago.

Roberto Loungo has a Gold Medal in 2010 to help him forget when he was open door, allowing the Blackhawks to score seven times in single contest last May. Loungo had a similar flashback in Game 3 against the Kings, as they lit the lamp five times; however he appears to have regained his composure and wants prove he’s the better goalie in this series. Vancouver starts round two 20-6 after two or more Over’s.

Chicago fate in this series might not rest with the Canucks; it might be right in the mirror. Too often the obviously more talent Blackhawks were unwilling to do the dirty work against Nashville and dug a hole for themselves. This could happen more easily with larger repercussions as Vancouver is upgrade ability-wise. When it counted, Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa came thru and they will be counted on again for Chicago to press on.

Rookie Antti Niemi was solid between the pipes with 2.15 GAA, which included keeping the Preds out of the net twice in the series. He’ll need the help of defensemen Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook to keep the Sedin’s busy away from the goal. The Hawks are 40-18 when they register three goals.

These teams split four battles, each winning once on the road. The first two games went Under and the last two went Over the total.

Vancouver’s greatest weakness is the blue line. They couldn’t harness good Kings power play unit (seventh in the regular season), permitting 10 goals. Though Chicago’s man advantage crew isn’t as strong as L.A.’s, this could become deciding factor in tight series.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-29-2010, 07:14 PM

Dallas and Portland in Survival Mode

The Mavericks and Trailblazers enter their respective contests Thursday with a singular thought, force a Game 7. Dallas passed their first test, routing San Antonio at home, now they will have to elevate their game to stave off elimination as the No. 2 seed in the West. Portland suffered their third “Whose your daddy” pasting by Phoenix Monday night and will try and extend series by eclipsing the Suns by playing at slower pace.

Coaching could be the key

Forget the players from Dallas and San Antonio for a second and think about the two coaches. No coach is going to win unless he has the players, however when the talent is fairly equally distributed, the ability to make adjustments is tantamount.

Rick Carlisle is a good NBA coached, seemingly well-liked and has never won a thing. Greg Popovich is abrasive, a smart-aleck at times and has won four NBA championships.

While this might not be Avery Johnson vs. Pat Riley in the 2006 NBA Finals in terms of mismatches it certainly in the neighborhood. More like Ted Danson as Sam Malone (great in Cheers) against his John “Becker” character (good, not great).

Carlisle and his staff deserve props for making adjustments and better utilizing the talent owner Mark Cuban traded for. Brendan Haywood was inserted into the starting lineup Tuesday evening and the offense frequently went thru him and having played with Caron Butler in Washington, the two clicked as Butler scored a career playoff-high of 35 points in 103-81 blowout.

“That was fun,” Mavs star Dirk Nowitzki said and his team is 26-16-1 ATS in road games this season.

Coach Popovich was displeased with what he saw from his squad and said so, “Mostly it was the case of they came with the mental and physical toughness, and our starting group wasn’t very good in either category”

San Antonio is 16-5 ATS at home after a loss by 20 points and Popovich must first get his team back in the proper frame of mind and do a better job in going from the defensive to offensive end, moving the ball up the floor quicker before the bigger Dallas team can be more physical and stunt their flow.

The Spurs are 3.5-point favorites with total of 191 at Bookmaker.com and they are on 9-2-1 ATS rollout and are 22-9 UNDER after four or more consecutive Under’s, which has been the case lately in this series. Dallas will attempt to counter being 4-0-1 ATS after double digit victory and the Mavs are 17-5 UNDER in road games having lost two of their last three.

Maybe the Spurs just had better players, but since Tim Duncan arrived in San Antonio, he and Popovich are 5-0 in seven-game series after building 3-1 lead. This isn’t Carlisle fault, but Dallas has never rallied down 3-1 in a series.

It’s about wins not point differential

Fifty years ago this fall, the New York Yankees outscored the Pittsburgh Pirates by 28 runs in the World Series and lost in seven games. Portland coach Nate McMillian might be wise to remind his team that history can be repeated, just on the hardwood instead of grass.

The Trailblazers has been blitzed three times by 29, 19 and 19 points, the latter two could have been much worse. Their triumphs have been by five and nine points respectively. “This series is crazy," Portland's LaMarcus Aldridge said. "We win; they win by 30."

Portland will try to force a seventh game playing at the Rose Garden and they are 13-3 ATS having lost three of their last four contests. "We'll be fine," point guard Andre Miller said after Monday's spanking. "We just have to think about one game. It's time to go home and take care of business."

The Phoenix demolition was capped by its reserves, which outscored the Blazers bench 55-23, led by Channing Frye and Jared Dudley. The duo had been mostly ineffective in this series, but they tallied 39 points between them (Frye-20, Dudley-19) in leading the onslaught.

“When they get going like that, we’re a really good team,” the Suns’ Steve Nash said. “I think it’s great for their confidence because we have a lot of confidence in them.” Phoenix raised their record to 28-13 ATS against defensive teams that allow 46 percent or higher shooting percentage.

The Suns are catching one point and are 7-3-1 ATS as Pick or road underdog since Jan. 31. This 3 vs. 6 matchup has seen the number fall below the total three times in a row and Portland is 8-0 ATS after three or more consecutive Under’s this year.

With the total at 202, Phoenix is 8-2-1 UNDER after a 10 or more point conquest and the Trailblazers are 7-0-1 UNDER after losing by double digits.

TNT has both battles with the first game at 8:00 Eastern.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-29-2010, 07:15 PM

Suns at Blazers, Game 6

The Numbers

Portland opened as a one-point favorite over Phoenix for Game Six with the total set at 201.5. With the last three games in this series staying under the total, it is no surprise this is the lowest posted number so far in the series.

The Skinny

A week ago, Portland was feeling pretty good about itself. It had stolen a game in Phoenix and headed home with the series split at one game apiece and took over the home court advantage. Now just seven days later, the Blazers are on the brink of elimination making this a must win situation.

The teams have each taken four games in the season series with Phoenix taking three of five at home and Portland taking two of three at home. The road team has won three of the eight meetings so home court has not exactly been a major advantage and the 16 home losses this season for Portland are the most of any playoff team from the Western Conference.

The Suns finished the regular season with 35 conference wins, tied for the most with the Lakers out west.

Statistical Breakdown

Phoenix is averaging 109.9 ppg on the season and if it comes close to that, there is a good chance for a win. When the Suns score fewer than 100 points, they are 2-11 on the season (2-10-1 ATS). They get better when totaling between 100 and 105 points, going 8-11 (8-11 ATS as well). But when scoring 106 or more points, they are 47-8 (41-14 ATS) so putting up a ton of points is the way to win.

Portland has gone over the century mark 38 times and has won 29 of those games (28-10 ATS) including three games against the Suns. Conversely, the Blazers are 23-26 in the 39 games they have failed to tally at least 100 points (18-19-2 ATS).

When it comes to defense, it is important for both teams. The Blazers have allowed 100 or more points 28 times and are just 7-21 in those games (8-20 ATS). It is rare for Phoenix to allow teams to miss the century mark but in the 24 games it has done so, it is 22-2 (20-3-1 ATS).

Tempo Wins

This is a point that was brought up in the breakdown for last week and it still holds true as the pace of the game has determined who has won so far.

In Game One, Portland controlled the tempo and even though there were more shots attempted by both teams, it went to the Blazers advantage. In that first game, the Suns had just four fast break points but they had seven by the middle of the first quarter in Game Two on their way to 17 fast break points overall.

In the pivotal Game Three, Phoenix had only 11 fast break points but it made up for it with incredible long range shooting, hitting 13-28 behind the arc (46.4 percent).

In Game Four, the Suns were held to just four fast break points and could not hit anything from the outside, shooting just 26.1 percent from three-point land. Thus, they scored a season low 87 points.

On Monday, the tempo went the Suns way yet again as they held a 17-6 fast break point advantage and it was their bench that was the difference as it really exposed the thin Blazers roster.

History Lesson

With the home court back on their side, the Suns have a big edge in being able to close the series.

Game One losers have gone on to win best-of-seven series only 21 percent of the time. It gets a lot better for the home-court-advantage teams when they win Game Two for a split however, which Phoenix did, as those teams have gone on to win the series 63 percent of the time.

Now with a 3-2 series lead, the Blazers backs are against the wall. The team that wins Game Five in a series that is tied ends up taking the series 83 percent of the time.

Trends

The home team is 8-3-1 ATS the last 12 meetings while the favorite is 17-7-2 ATS the last 26 meetings.

Phoenix is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

Portland is 8-20 ATS in home games after a double-digit loss over the last three seasons.

The ‘Under’ is 7-1-1 in the Suns last nine games following a double-digit win while the ‘Under’ is 8-0 in the Blazers last eight games following a double-digit loss.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-29-2010, 07:16 PM

Thursday's Tips

Gamblers have a pair of games on tap for tonight in the NBA Playoffs, both of which feature clubs facing elimination. Dallas avoided vacation by trouncing San Antonio in Tuesday’s Game 5, but the Mavs have to get a road win to force a Game 7 back at home.

Portland will be looking to stave off elimination for the first time in its Game 6 at home against Phoenix. The Suns cruised to an easy home win in Game 5 of this best-of-seven set.

**Mavericks at Spurs**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened San Antonio (53-34 straight up, 46-39-2 against the spread) as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 190 ½. As of late this morning, most books had the Spurs as 3 ½-point ‘chalk’ with the total slightly adjusted to 191. Bettors can back the Mavs to win outright for a plus-145 return (risk $100 to win $145).

--Dallas (57-30 SU, 39-46-2 ATS) cruised to an easy victory in Tuesday’s Game 5 at home. Caron Butler exploded for a game-high 35 points and 11 rebounds to lead the Mavs to a 103-81 triumph as five-point favorites. Parlays with Dallas and the ‘under’ paid handsomely when the 184 combined points stayed below the 190 ½-point tally. Dirk Nowitzki added 15 points and nine rebounds, while Jason Kidd produced 10 points, seven boards and seven assists with just one turnover.

--In the losing Game 5 effort, Tony Parker had a team-high 18 points and six assists off the bench. Tim Duncan had just 11 points after a four-point effort in Game 4. The Wake Forest product, who has led the franchise to four championships, averaged 25.6 points per game in the first three games of this series. Manu Ginobli finished with just seven points in Game 5.

--San Antonio has a 31-12 SU record and a 25-16-2 ATS mark in its home games this season. Meanwhile, the Mavs are 27-16 SU and 26-16-1 ATS in their road assignments.

--The ‘under’ is 43-43- overall for the Mavs, 22-21 in their road contests. The ‘under’ is 47-37-3 overall for the Spurs, although they have watched the ‘over’ profit at a 23-19-1 clip in their home outings.

--The ‘under’ has gone 4-0-1 in this series to date. Going back even further, the ‘under’ is 7-1-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these squads.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

**Suns at Trail Blazers**

--This first-round series heads back to the Rose Garden in Portland with the Trail Blazers facing elimination. LVSC opened Nate McMillan’s team as a 1 ½-point favorite with a total of 203 ½. As of late this morning, most spots had the Blazers installed as one-point ‘chalk’ with the total reduced to 202.

--Phoenix (57-30 SU, 51-31-1 ATS) gave out woodshed treatment in Game 5 at home, crushing the Blazers by a 107-88 count as a 7 ½-point favorite. Terry Porter got great production from his bench, particularly Channing Frye and Jared Dudley. Frye had a team-high 20 points and eight rebounds, while Dudley had 19 points thanks to five treys. Steve Nash added 14 points and 10 assists.

--After missing the first three games of the series, Portland star guard Brandon Roy came off the bench and was a major contributor in his club’s 96-87 victory as a two-point home underdog in Game 4. Roy had just 10 points in 26 minutes of playing time but his mere presence seemed to lift his club’s morale. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 31 points and pulled down 11 rebounds for the winners.

--In the Game 5 loss at Phoenix, Roy was a non-factor in just 18 minutes of action. He had only five points on 2-of-7 shooting from the field. Andre Miller had 21 points, four boards and four assists in defeat, while Aldridge and Jerryd Bayless scored 17 points apiece.

--Portland owns a 27-16 SU record but just a 20-22-1 ATS mark in its home games this season. As for Phoenix, it has compiled a 23-20 SU ledger to go with its 24-19-1 ATS mark on the road.

--The ‘over’ hit in the first two games of this series, but the ‘under’ has been a winner the last three times out. With that said, we should note that Phoenix games with totals of less than 209 ½ have seen the ‘over’ go 12-3-2.

--The ‘over’ is 45-42 overall for the Trail Blazers, but the ‘under’ is 24-19 in their home games.

--The ‘under’ is 46-38-3 overall for the Suns, 24-17-2 in their road games.

--TNT will have the telecast at 10:35 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Atlanta led Milwaukee 82-73 with 3:55 left in the fourth quarter of last night’s Game 5 at Philips Arena. At that point, most were wondering if the Hawks would cover the number as nine-point home favorites. Moments later, as some dude named Ersan Ilyasova was seemingly beating Josh Smith to every rebound, the Bucks were polishing off a 14-0 run that sparked them to a stunning and improbable 91-87 win. And now they’re shockingly on the verge of advancing to the second round for the first time since 2001. If Milwaukee can finish Atlanta at the Bradley Center on Friday night, it will hook up its backers with a plus-400 payout for series bets.

--After Dominique Wilkins and Larry Bird slugged it out in an epic Game 7 won by the Celtics in the 1988 Eastern Conference semifinals, the Hawks went out and made several offseason splashes to give ‘Nique some help. They were able to add Moses Malone and Reggie Theus, prompting expectations to go through the roof for the 1989 campaign. Yet in the first round, Mike Fratello’s team found itself struggling to get past (none other than…) the Milwaukee Bucks, who had won Game 2 at the old Omni. Back then, the first round was just the best out of five, so the Hawks were in trouble when they lost Game 3 at Milwaukee. However, they responded to win Game 4 and force the series decider back to the ATL. Nevertheless, the Bucks got it done on the road and beat the Hawks in Game 5 to advance to the second round. Twenty-one years later, Milwaukee could be poised to pull a similar upset. In 1989, it was the beginning of the end for Fratello in Atlanta. This time around, it could be the end for head coach Mike Woodson, who has recently been linked to the 76ers job in multiple reports, and perennial All-Star Joe Johnson, who will be an unrestricted free agent and could be playing for the Knicks or Bulls next year.

--If this Milwaukee-Atlanta series has taught me anything, it’s that Johnson is beyond tired of Josh Smith, who has as much raw talent as any player in the league. After the Game 4 loss at Milwaukee, quotes from JJ seemed to be aimed at Smith, who spent most of that loss crying to the officials during every dead ball. I think it’s 70-30 that Johnson is gone via free agency and probably more like 80-20 if the Bucks win Friday’s elimination game. But if he does have a desire to stay in Atlanta, I’m convinced he’ll only do so if he can force GM Rick Sund’s hand to trade Smith, who would be able to attract plenty of value at the other end of a trade. Remember, Smith’s contract has him with the Hawks through the 2012/2013 campaign.

--Sund offered Johnson a four-year, $60 million extension before this season started. Johnson passed.

--Denver staved off elimination last night and cashed tickets in a 116-102 win over Utah as a seven-point home favorite. The Game 5 victory pulled the Nuggets to within 3-2 in the series. Now they have to win in Salt Lake City to force a Game 7 back at Pepsi Center. The 218 combined points slipped 'over' the 216 1/2-point total.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-29-2010, 07:17 PM

Tempo key to Game 6 between Suns-Blazers

PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) -A blast-right-by-them style has served the Suns well against the Trail Blazers.

And tempo will likely be a deciding factor on Thursday night when Phoenix visits Portland with a 3-2 advantage and a chance to advance to the next round of the playoffs.

When the Blazers have had success, they have been able to slow the Suns down and go to a half-court defense.

``We've got to get out and open the floor up. It's the same thing that we've been talking about from day one,'' Suns coach Alvin Gentry said about his team's obvious strategy. ``We have to be the one that imposes our will.''

The player who seems to have found the most success imposing his will has been Amare Stoudemire, who has averaged 20.2 points over the course of the series with gritty - and what Portland fans would call nasty - play.

Stoudemire's response?

``It's just the playoffs,'' he said. ``Both teams are being physical.''

Matchup problems with Stoudemire have befuddled the Blazers as much as his toughness. The more the team focuses on him, the more it opens up someone else. In Game 3, which the Suns won 108-89 at the Rose Garden, Jason Richardson was the beneficiary and had 42 points, including eight 3-pointers. Richardson is averaging 22.6 points in the series.

While the Blazers have home court for Thursday's game, Portland coach Nate McMillan is counting on the intangibles to force a Game 7. Namely, the Blazers have faced their share of obstacles this season and far exceeded expectations.

``It's a huge challenge to win the series,'' McMillan said. ``But not an impossible challenge.''

Case in point, the Blazers have already stretched the series much further than most expected. Portland had two major strikes against it: they were facing one of the league's hottest second-half teams, and they were doing it without their captain.

All-star guard Brandon Roy missed the final two games of the regular season with a torn meniscus in his right knee. Although he claimed he could play on it, he had arthroscopic surgery two days before the opening game against the Suns and was ruled out of the series.

Roy unexpectedly returned eight days after the procedure, and it was generally agreed that the emotional boost he provided - and the surprise to the Suns - helped carry the Blazers to a 96-87 victory in Game 4.

It wasn't enough to stop the Suns from getting back on pace in Monday night's game, a 107-88 Game 5 victory in Phoenix.

In those last two games, Roy has come off the bench. He says he'll start on Thursday.

``If he's on the court, we're going to try to attack him, yeah. At eight days after you have a meniscus tear and you get that repaired, I don't think you could possibly be 100 percent,'' Gentry said.

Roy, a three-time All-Star, told reporters that he's not sure where he's at, but there's no pain and no swelling.

``I'm just going to try and play as hard as I can,'' he said.

Even with Roy, who averaged 21.5 points per game in the regular season, the odds are still stacked against Portland.

The Blazers have never won a playoff series when they've been down 3-2. In the history of the NBA, when a series is tied at 2-2, the winner of Game 5 goes on to win it 83.4 percent of the time.

In the series so far, the three Suns wins came by margins of 29, 19 and 19. The Blazers' wins were by five and nine points.

To make it worse, the oft-injured Blazers are banged up: In addition to the uncertainty over Roy's knee, starting forward Nicolas Batum's surgically repaired shoulder is sore and center Marcus Camby has a bum left ankle and a dislocated left pinkie.

But they were dutifully stressing that the law of averages doesn't matter. What does matter is the outcome.

``This team has responded to so many things this season,'' McMillan said. ``We know we're capable; we've done it all season.''

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