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Lookin At Lucky shines in final Derby work

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  • Lookin At Lucky shines in final Derby work

    LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Perhaps the only thing worse than rain on Derby Day is rain the week of the race, when the majority of the contenders stabled at Churchill Downs get in their final works.

    Four consecutive days of rain altered training schedules and forced Derby hopefuls to gallop and work over a racetrack that may not have been to their liking and may bear little resemblance to the one they'll compete over on Derby Day.

    When training hours began, as usual, at 5:45 a.m. Monday, a light drizzle added to the abundant moisture that had accumulated on the racetrack since early Friday. The muddy conditions, however, weren't a concern to the trainers of the five potential Derby starters expected to work; all reported for duty as scheduled when the course reopened following the renovation break.

    WORK OF THE DAY

    Lookin At Lucky (five furlongs in 1:00.38): This was a no-brainer. Lookin At Lucky solidified his status as Derby favorite with another nearly perfect-looking breeze for trainer Bob Baffert.

    Unlike in Lookin At Lucky's previous drill five days earlier, when he broke off about five lengths behind his sacrificial workmate Broken Tango, exercise rider Dana Barnes had him nearly 10 lengths behind his target when leaving the five-furlong pole. Despite appearing to cruise along, Lookin At Lucky completed his first three-eighths in a crisp 35.79 seconds while readily overtaking his mate approaching the stretch. Switching leads right on cue, he widened the gap between the pair, completing his final quarter in 24.59 with Barnes as still as a statue the entire length of the stretch. She then reached down and grabbed a hold of her mount shortly past the wire to prevent too strong a gallop-out just five days out from the race. Lookin At Lucky pulled up six furlongs in a very respectable 1:14.96.

    It is hard to find any fault with him in the last week, and it is also comforting to know he should have little problem handling a wet track if faced with one in the Derby.

    Line of David (six furlongs in 1:14.98): Line of David was the first of the Derby workers to go Monday, and his abundant speed was immediately on display. He ripped off early quarter and three-furlong splits of 23.56 and 35.60. Unlike Lookin At Lucky, who continued on strongly down the lane after posting just slightly slower fractions, Line of David had nothing left in the tank despite being put to pressure approaching the quarter pole and throughout the final furlong, which he really struggled to negotiate despite the steady urging. He then shut down after passing the wire, to the extent I turned my watch off during the gallop-out.

    This was a perplexing performance, since Line of David has made a very good physical impression here this week, but his lack of experience over wet racetracks may have been the cause. But that excuse aside, this was not what you'd like to see from a Derby horse this close to the race.

    American Lion (five furlongs in 1:02.69): As was the case with Line of David, expectations were high this morning, considering the way American Lion has trained here in the last week. And while this work wasn't terrible, some observers may have wanted to see a bit more.

    Breaking off at the five-furlong pole under jockey David Flores, American Lion began at a leisurely pace, completing his opening three-eighths in a shade under 38, slow enough to expect him to have really quickened down the stretch. Instead, American Lion finished up at the same pace, getting his final quarter in 24.78, albeit with Flores offering little encouragement through the lane.

    Noble's Promise (four furlongs in 48.80, according to track clockers): I got to see only the final quarter-mile of this work because of all the other activity taking place. I liked what I saw, especially the way he easily pulled away from workmate Fist of Rage in the final furlong after getting mild encouragement from jockey Willie Martinez near the sixteenth pole.

    He also galloped out the strongest of this morning's quintet of Derby workers, getting an extra furlong in 13.46 to pull up five-eighths in 1:02.26.
    This was an important test Noble's Promise had to pass to convince trainer Ken McPeek he was over the minor infirmities that have left his Derby status in doubt the last several weeks. From the looks of things, he passed the test with flying colors.

    Interactif (four furlongs in 47.53): Trainer Todd Pletcher continued to lean strongly against running Interactif in the Derby, a notion that was probably confirmed after a fast but somewhat visually unimpressive work.

    He was put to some severe pressure leaving the turn, yet still struggled before gradually pulling away from his workmate nearing the wire.
    I was eager to see something from Endorsement following three consecutive mornings of little or, as was the case Sunday, no activity during training hours. Sure enough, he did hit the track before dawn to jog and then gallop one mile, during which his action looked a bit on the choppy side.

    Sidney's Candy returned to the track for the first time since working Saturday and looked extremely sharp. He left the impression he wanted to do much more than just jog once around alongside the pony.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    At the Gate - Wednesday

    The last few days were packed with Derby drama, with the announcement that Eskenderya has some untimely swelling in his left front leg and will miss the big dance on Saturday.

    It is the second year in a row we lost the likely Derby favorite to an injury. Last year we saw I Want Revenge scratched the morning of the race with some heat in his left front ankle.

    Trainer Todd Pletcher comes into this year’s Derby with a 0 for 24 mark and a rather large monkey squarely on his back.

    He not only lost the likely favorite, but Rule, who was third in the Florida Derby (G1) in his last start, will also skip the Derby and head to Baltimore for the Preakness Stakes in two weeks.

    Pletcher is still sitting with a strong hand on Saturday, with Mission Impazable, Super Saver, Discreetly Mine, and now the filly Devil May Care, who will bypass Friday’s Kentucky Oaks (G1) and take on the boys in the Derby.

    The filly is coming off a very impressive win in the Bonnie Miss Stakes (G2) on March 20 at Gulfstream Park.

    Before you dismiss the filly, let me remind you there are going to be just four runners in the Derby field that have cracked the triple digit Beyer Speed Figure scale, and she is one of them, earning a 100 Beyer for her Bonnie Miss win.

    The others are Sidney’s Candy (100 in his Santa Anita Derby win), Endorsement (101 in his Sunland Derby (G3) victory), and Jackson Bend (100 in the In reality last fall at Calder).

    Toss in the fact she is bred to run all day, and don’t forget Pletcher won the Belmont Stakes (G1) with Rags to Riches, so let’s not be so quick to dismiss her chances.

    Entries for the Derby are drawn on Wednesday, and I will have Friday’s Oaks Report up by Wednesday night, and the Derby Report up by Thursday evening.

    To purchase my full card report for Churchill Downs that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.

    Here is today's opening race from Churchill Downs to get our day off to a good start:

    CD Race 1 Md $40,000 (12:45 ET)
    #3 Truth Will Tell 7/2
    #5 Jozi's Turn 5/2
    #2 Grand Dooley 4/1
    #4 My Fast Friend 5/1

    Analysis: #3 Truth Will Tell drops back in for a tag for her third career start for the Wilkes barn that brings them along slower than most. The filly was off a beat slow in both of her starts, last out coming from a bum post at Keeneland over the poly. She showed some late interest in her debut at Gulfstream Park after breaking tardily, checking in fourth. Third time out looks like the charm and she is in light with the bug Lenclud.

    #5 Jozi's Turn is coming off a solid second last out at Delta against maiden special weight company. The fourth place finisher in the race was Island Bluff, who came back to beat $15K maiden claimers in her next outing on April 18 at Lone Star. The filly picks up the red hot Borel, who rides here for his brother.

    Wagering
    WIN: #3 to win at 5/2 or better.
    EX: 3,5 / 2,3,5
    TRI: no play

    Today's Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:

    CD Race 9 Alw $52,500N2X (4:59 ET)
    #4 Awesome Grannie 5/1
    #3 Consequence 3/1
    #2 Sweetest Song 4/1
    #7 Sweet Theresa 8/1

    Analysis: #4 Awesome Grannie has tried this condition three times, last out weakening to finish fifth at Gulfstream Park where she was beaten two lengths for the top spot. That was a pretty strong group she ran into that day. The winner Speak Easy Gal came back to win the Orchid (G3), and the runner up Salve Germania is a Grade 2 winner.

    #3 Consequence tracked the early pace, had the lead heading for home and could not hold off the winner late, beaten just a neck for the top spot. The filly figures to move forward in her second start off a 5 1/2 month break. She has quite the pedigree, out of the Grade 1 winner Educated Risk ($1.1 million). She is a legit player in here although I am hoping our top pick offers more value for the top spot.

    Wagering
    WIN: #4 to win at 3/1 or better.
    EX: 3,4 / 2,3,4,7
    TRI: 3,4 / 2,3,4,7 / 2,3,4,5,7

    Live Longshots:
    These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

    Churchill Downs
    R5: #6 Triple Nine Fine 8/1
    R7: #3 Forum 8/1
    R9: #7 Sweet Theresa 8/1
    R10: #13 Saviano 12/1

    Good luck today!
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      Pletcher filly to run with boys in Ky Derby

      LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) -Todd Pletcher lost the likely Kentucky Derby favorite when he pulled Eskendereya out of the race with a leg injury on Sunday. He may have found a sentimental favorite instead in filly Devil May Care.

      Owner John Greathouse will enter the 3-year-old filly in the Run for the Roses, one of four shots the Eclipse Award-winning trainer has at ending his 0-for-24 Derby hex.

      ``I'd dearly love our filly to be the one to break this deal for him,'' Greathouse said. ``He's done a lot for me. We've had seven horses with him and three are Grade 1 winners.''

      Including Devil May Care, who won the Frizette at Belmont last fall and is coming off a solid victory in the Bonnie Miss at Gulfstream Park on March 20.

      Greathouse had the filly - who is named after a James' Bond novel - pointed toward the Kentucky Oaks before Eskendereya was injured.

      The injury did more than simply open up the field - Lookin At Lucky is now the expected favorite - it also meant jockey Johnny Velazquez was available. Velazquez has piloted Devil May Care in all three of her career victories.

      ``I think it was ultimately the deciding factor, not only that Johnny's available but why he's available,'' Pletcher said.

      Greathouse was considering entering her in both the Oaks and the Derby and waiting until the post draw to make a decision. Yet he tipped his hands about his intentions on Monday morning when Devil May Care came out for her gallop wearing a Derby saddlecloth.

      ``You noticed that, huh?'' Greathouse said with a laugh.

      Pletcher nominated the filly for the Triple Crown in January, saying he felt there was more than a passing similarity between Devil May Care and Eskendereya.

      Those comparisons appeared to be ill-conceived in February when she struggled to a distant fifth in the Silverbulletday Stakes at the Fair Grounds under jockey Javier Castellano.

      Greathouse joked that he was ``suicidal'' afterward, but Devil May Care bounced back a month later in the Bonnie Miss, where Velazquez guided her to a relatively easy 2 3/4-length win.

      Suddenly, the Derby was in sight. And make no mistake, Greathouse doesn't consider his rising star a field filler. He's here to win.

      ``When you get an exceptional animal, you've got to give them a chance to do exceptional things,'' Greathouse said.

      Three fillies have won the Derby, the last being Winning Colors in 1988. Winning Colors was trained by Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, Pletcher's mentor.

      Lukas, like Pletcher, struggled in the Derby early in his career. He was 0-for-12 heading into the 1988 race before Winning Colors edged Forty Niner by a neck, the first of his four Derby triumphs.

      Pletcher has already proven he can lead a filly to a Triple Crown win, guiding Rags to Riches to a narrow victory over Curlin in the 2007 Belmont. He was already planning on running Devil May Care in the Belmont before the opportunity to run in the Derby opened.

      ``She's an exceptional filly, we've always felt that way,'' Pletcher said. ``Obviously, with the big horse coming out yesterday the field is very wide open, and I think she deserves a chance.''
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        Baffert's in the Derby hunt once again

        LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The first time trainer Bob Baffert ran a horse in the Kentucky Derby, in 1996, Cavonnier lost by a nose, leaving Baffert in what he will readily admit was a year-long funk.

        "That was the most brutal beat of my career," he recalled Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs.

        At the time Baffert had been regularly training Thoroughbreds for less than a decade. And while he had already won a Breeders' Cup race with Thirty Slews, the Triple Crown stage was foreign to him.

        "I was devastated," he said. "I didn't know if I could get back."

        He need not have fretted. Over the next six years, Baffert became a Derby regular. He won the race three times, tying him for fourth all-time with fellow Hall of Famers "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons and Max Hirsch. In each instance, Baffert took the Derby winner - Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and War Emblem - to the verge of a Triple Crown by adding the Preakness, too.

        In an era of Derby fields usually numbering 20 horses or thereabouts, Baffert has fashioned one of the most impressive records of any trainer in Derby history. Of his 18 starters, he also has finished second twice, including last year with Pioneerof the Nile, and third twice. He comes loaded. And this year, circumstances both within and outside his control have combined to make Baffert, yet again, one of the focal points of the Derby.

        Baffert will send out Lookin At Lucky and Conveyance on Saturday in Derby 136. Both have earned their way on merit. Lookin At Lucky was last year's champion 2-year-old male - when he won the Norfolk Stakes, Del Mar Futurity, and CashCall Futurity - and this year owns a win in the Rebel Stakes, and a troubled third in the Santa Anita Derby. Conveyance won the first four starts of his career before finishing second last time out in the Sunland Derby.

        The stock of both rose significantly when Eskendereya, the acknowledged favorite, was withdrawn over the weekend, leaving Lookin At Lucky as the new favorite. Now, Baffert stands to benefit by Eskendereya's misfortune. Last year, Baffert teamed with owner Ahmed Zayat with Pioneerof the Nile. Zayat also owns Eskendereya, who is trained by Todd Pletcher.

        Should either Conveyance or Lookin At Lucky win this year, Baffert will vault into a tie for second all-time among trainers for Derby wins. Also owning four Derby wins are D. Wayne Lukas - who has Dublin in this Derby - and "Derby Dick" Thompson, who won four times between 1921 and 1933. Ben Jones leads all Derby trainers with six wins, earned between 1938 and 1952.

        "I don't care who wins. I just want to win," Baffert said.

        Conveyance had his final drill for the Derby on Tuesday morning, when he traveled five furlongs in 59.58 seconds, according to Daily Racing Form. He was one of just two Derby horses to work, the other being Awesome Act, who went a half-mile in 48.44 seconds under his Derby jockey, Julien Leparoux.

        The works were conducted on a chilly morning in a steady rain on a track rated muddy. It rained at Churchill Downs for the fifth straight day, and while a break in the weather was forecast for midweek, according to Weather.com, the temperatures and humidity were expected to rise by the weekend. The Derby Day forecast is for a high of 80 degrees, with a 40 percent chance of rain, including scattered thunderstorms.

        Conveyance fairly skipped over the surface on Tuesday with exercise rider Dana Barnes aboard.

        "Conveyance is a speed horse," Baffert said. "He should be on the lead. It's always exciting when you've got horses who you think have got a chance. He went well. Now all we have to do is sit back and enjoy all the festivities."

        Conveyance began his career in Southern California on synthetic surfaces, but has made his last two starts on dirt. He won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn before the Sunland Derby.

        "He's so much better on dirt," Baffert said. "He reminds me a lot of Holy Bull" - Conveyance's maternal grandsire. "He wants to get out there and run. He's got a lot of natural speed."

        Conveyance was originally purchased for $240,000 by the Thoroughbred Legends partnership at the Keeneland yearling sale in September 2008, but then was privately purchased after his first two wins by bloodstock agent Omar Trevino on behalf of Sheikh Rashid al-Maktoum's Zabeel Racing International.

        Lookin At Lucky was bought by Baffert on behalf of owners Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman for $475,000 one year ago this month at a 2-year-old in training sale at Keeneland.

        "He worked well before the sale," Baffert said. "Did it effortlessly, the way he hit the ground, the way he moved over it. When I went to look at him, I could tell he was a little immature.

        "When he was in the back of the ring, he got all pumped up. He looked really good. He had a presence about him. I thought he'd go for between $250,000 and $500,000."

        What if the bidding had kept going past that budget?

        "He wouldn't have stopped," Pegram said. "We needed him to help pay for the bad ones."

        Baffert joked that "we've had a few gutterballs." But he has thrown plenty of strikes. Pegram owned Real Quiet - who in 1998 gave Baffert his second Derby win - and Pegram, Watson, and Weitman owned Midnight Lute, who twice won the Breeders' Cup Sprint.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          Derby favorites draw tricky posts

          LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The top two choices in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday have 'em surrounded. Lookin At Lucky, the favorite, drew the rail, and Sidney's Candy, the second choice, drew the outside post in a field of 20 when post positions were drawn on Wednesday for Derby 136 at Churchill Downs.

          Devil May Care, the filly who will challenge 19 males, wound up in the middle, in post 11.

          The posts for the top two choices are not considered ideal. No horse has won from the rail since Ferdinand in 1986, and no horse beginning from the rail has finished in the money since Risen Star was third in 1988.
          "He's got to break well," said Bob Baffert, who trains Lookin At Lucky and Conveyance, who drew post 12. "Plan A is to break well. Plan B is we're screwed."

          Big Brown won from post 20 just two years ago, but he was clearly superior to his rivals. Though 20-horse fields have been the norm in recent years, they were rare in the early years of the Derby. The only other horse to win from post 20 was Clyde Van Dusen in 1929, when there was a walk-up start.

          Post 11 also had its drawbacks. Because the Derby field is double-loaded, posts 1 and 11 go in the gate first for the 1 1/4-mile race, then 2 and 12, on down to 10 and 20.

          "Eleven is a great position from which to start the race. The only thing I don't like is that she'll have to be in the gate a long time," said Todd Pletcher, who trains Devil May Care and three other horses in this Derby.

          Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper, made Lookin At Lucky the 4-1 favorite, with Sidney's Candy 5-1 and Awesome Act the third choice at 8-1. He has Devil May Care next at 10-1, followed by Ice Box at 12-1.

          Mike Battaglia, the linemaker at Churchill Downs, has Lookin At Lucky at 3-1, and Sidney's Candy at 5-1. Battaglia made Awesome Act, Devil May Care, and Ice Box co-third choices at 10-1.

          Devil May Care is adding blinkers for the Derby, while Lookin At Lucky is having his removed.

          Posts were determined in a traditional blind draw, rather than the two-step draft format of recent years. Under the abandoned format, Lookin At Lucky would have had the first choice of posts.
          A maximum of 20 horses can run in the Derby. A total of 22 horses were entered. By rule, the Derby field is determined by graded stakes earnings in oversubscribed fields. So two horses - Pleasant Prince and Setsuko - were excluded.

          The field was in flux right up to the hours before entries were due. Endorsement, the Sunland Derby winner, went out for a workout Wednesday morning with her trainer, Shannon Ritter, aboard and was timed in 47.23 seconds for a half-mile. But he was limping by the time he got back to the barn, and radiographs revealed he had a fracture in his right front ankle.

          "It's a lateral condylar fracture, non-displaced," said Dr. Beau Landry, the attending veterinarian. "He's going to be scheduled for surgery."

          "I feel sorry for Shannon," said Elliott Walden, the general manager of WinStar Farm, which owns Endorsement. "She's done a great job with the horse. Hopefully he'll be back."

          The defection of Endorsement was the second this week for WinStar's Derby prospects. WinStar, owned by Bill Casner and Kenny Troutt, withdrew Rule earlier in the week because he was not training satisfactorily. WinStar still will be presented by Super Saver, who drew post 4, and American Lion, who got post 7.

          Endorsement's injury allowed Make Music for Me to get into the Derby. Had Endorsement come out of his workout well, Make Music for Me would have joined Pleasant Prince and Setsuko as being excluded from the field because of insufficient graded stakes earnings. Make Music for Me was entered in the American Turf on Friday as a back-up, but now will be scratched from that race.

          Make Music for Me will be ridden by Joel Rosario, who had taken a tentative call on Dean's Kitten, with the understanding he would opt for Make Music for Me if Make Music for Me got in. Robby Albarado, who was scheduled to ride Endorsement, took the vacated spot on Dean's Kitten.

          Pleasant Prince is owned by Ken Ramsey, who also owns Dean's Kitten. Had Ramsey so desired, he could have failed to enter Dean's Kitten, allowing Pleasant Prince to move up another notch and get into the field. Instead, Ramsey said Pleasant Prince would await the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes on May 15.

          Setsuko looked terrific when galloping on Wednesday morning, and his trainer, Richard Mandella, made several calls Wednesday morning - "Got any news for me?" he said - seeking updates on whether his horse would get in. But not enough dominoes fell. Setsuko is scheduled to run in the American Turf on Friday, and then will be pointed to the Belmont Stakes, the final leg of the Triple Crown, on June 5, Mandella said.

          "Doesn't he look good?" Mandella said. "But what are you going to do? Rules are rules."

          With 20 runners, the Derby's purse will be $2,185,200, with $1,425,200 going to the winner.

          The Derby will be the 11th race on a 13-race card that begins at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Post time for the Derby is scheduled for 6:24 p.m. The Derby will be shown live on NBC in a three-hour telecast beginning at 4 p.m.

          The weather was delightful at Churchill Downs on Wednesday, with a high temperature of 68 degrees under clear skies. But the forecast for Saturday has worsened as the week has progressed. According to the National Weather Service, there is a 60 percent chance of rain on Saturday, including scattered thunderstorms, with 1 1/2 inches of rain expected to fall Friday night into Saturday morning. The high temperature Saturday is forecast to be 75 degrees.

          - additional reporting by David Grening

          Kentucky Derby Lin4up

          Post - Horse - Jockey - Odds

          1 Lookin At Lucky -Garrett Gomez - 3-1
          2 Ice Box - Jose Lezcano - 10-1
          3 Noble's Promise -Willie Martinez = 12-1
          4 Super Saver - Calvin Borel - 15-1
          5 Line of David - Rafael Bejarano -30-1
          6 Stately Victor - Alan Garcia - 30-1
          7 American Lion - David Flores - 30-1
          8 Dean's Kitten - Robby Albarado - 50-1
          9 Make Music For Me -Joel Rosario - 50-1
          10 Paddy O'Prado - Kent Desormeaux - 20-1
          11 Devil May Care - John Velazquez - 10-1
          12 Conveyance - Martin Garcia - 12-1
          13 Jackson Bend - Mike Smith - 15-1
          14 Mission Impazible - Rajiv Maragh - 20-1
          15 Discreetly Mine - Javier Castellano - 30-1
          16 Awesome Act - Julien Leparoux - 10-1
          17 Dublin - Terry Thompson - 12-1
          18 Backtalk - Miguel Mena - 50-1
          19 Homeboykris -Ramon Dominguez - 50-1
          20 Sidney's Candy - Joe Talamo - 5-1
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #6
            At the Gate - Thursday

            Lookin At Lucky just ain’t lucky.

            The 2009 Juvenile champion drew the 13 post in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), and the outside post may have been the difference, as he came up a neck short of Vale of York.

            On Wednesday, the Bob Baffert trainee had more bad luck, drawing the one post in the field of 20 for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs.

            The last horse to win the Derby from the inside post was Ferdinand in 1986.

            The colt was installed as the 3/1 morning line favorite by track handicapper Mike Battaglia.

            The likely second choice in the race did not fare well in the draw either. Sidney’s Candy drew the far outside 20 post.

            The colt went gate to wire in his last two starts, the San Felipe (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1), and is expected to be in the first flight.

            The outside draw assures that jockey Joe Talamo will need to get his colt going early to avoid getting hung out wide heading into the first turn of the race.

            Sidney’s Candy is listed as the second choice at 5/1 on the morning line.

            After the top pair, it is anyone’s guess who will take betting action. Ice Box, Devil May Care, and Awesome Act are co-third choices at 10/1 on the morning line.

            I will have my full Derby Report up by Thursday evening.

            We got off to a good start for Derby Week, with four winners on top on the ten race card on Wednesday, producing a +105% +ROI for the day.

            We knocked down a few nice exactas, paying $24.80, $52.40, $69.60, and $142.00.

            My top pick in races seven through nine along with my second choice in the nightcap combined for a $2 Pick 4 that paid $6,011.60.

            That’s not a bad way to start the week.

            To purchase my full card report for Churchill Downs that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.

            Here is today's opening race from Churchill Downs to get our day off to a good start:

            CD Race 1 Clm $30,000N3L (12:45 ET)
            #1 Falling Knife
            #6 Luv Gov
            #5 Double Pittsburgh
            #2 Chef Eric

            Analysis: #1 Falling Knife tracked the early pace and faded to finish a well beaten seventh last out against Alw-2 company in his first go off nearly a year on the sidelines. The gelding crossed the wire second and was put up via DQ two back against Alw-1 foes in his lone start over the main track here. He drops into a softer spot here for the Amoss barn that brings this guy back pretty quick, which looks like a good sign.

            #6 Luv Gov won at this level last out at Oaklawn Park, his first win since breaking his maiden last May here. The colt earned the top last out speed fig in that outing but did not beat a very tough group.

            Wagering
            WIN: #1 to win at 2/1 or better.
            EX: 1,6 / 1,5,6
            TRI: no play

            Today's Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:

            CD Race 7 Edgewood (3:54 ET)
            #2 Negligee 9/5
            #9 Dynazapper 3/1
            #8 Midway Holiday 4/1
            #1 Potosina 7/2

            Analysis: #2 Negligee tries turf for the first time today. This gal was my pick in last year's Alcibades (G1) at 13/1 where she won, then was my top pick in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), but she weakened to finish sixth while bearing out in the stretch. She made her three year old debut in a tough spot in the Ashland (G1) off a five month layoff, fading to finish seventh. She should take to the turf, her mare won once on the turf and has dropped one turf winner. The blinkers come off today. The Terranova barn is 26% winners with horses making their second start off a 45-180 day layoff.

            #9 Dynazapper looked like she would be tough to beat last out at Keeneland, was sent off as the chalk, and came with a wide run but could only get third. Her lone go on turf was a decent fifth in the Herecomesthebride (G3) where she was beaten just 1 1/4 lengths for the top spot. She makes her third start of her currently form cycle while returning to grass.

            Wagering
            WIN: #2 to win at 8/5 or better.
            EX: 2,9 / 1,2,8,9
            TRI: 2,9 / 1,2,8,9 / 1,2,7,8,9

            Live Longshots:
            These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

            Churchill Downs
            R3: #9 Elusive Temper 10/1
            R3: #8 Sweet Tune 8/1
            R4: #4 Onelittleindianboy 12/1
            R5: #11 Summerlucky 10/1
            R5: #3 Executive Chief 10/1
            R9: #6 Au Moon 8/1
            R9: #1 Whirling Thunder 8/1
            R10: #12 Speedboat Sally 12/1
            R10: #5 Remember the Keg 20/1

            Good luck today!
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #7
              DRF: Blind Luck made favorite for Oaks

              LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Much of the speculation about the Kentucky Oaks has focused on who isn't running rather than who is. So when Devil May Care was missing from the draw Tuesday morning, assessment of the race shape could finally begin in earnest.

              At least this much is known about the Oaks: In the absence of Devil May Care, who runs instead Saturday in the Kentucky Derby, Blind Luck will be a heavy favorite in a full field of 14 3-year-old fillies. Churchill linemaker Mike Battaglia has pegged Blind Luck as the 6-5 program choice in the Oaks, a Grade 1, 1 1/8-mile race that will be run Friday for the 136th time at Churchill Downs.

              Rafael Bejarano, who has ridden Blind Luck in her last four starts, will be aboard from post 5 for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, already a two-time Oaks winner with Lite Light (1991) and Pike Place Dancer (1996).

              After Blind Luck, however, the pecking order of favoritism seems far less simple to define. Battaglia has listed three fillies next at 8-1: Crisp, Tidal Pool, and Amen Hallelujah.

              Crisp, who upset Blind Luck in the Santa Anita Oaks in early March, will be looking to spring an even bigger surprise Friday.

              "Blind Luck had a really tough trip when we got lucky enough to beat her at Santa Anita," said John Sadler, the trainer of Crisp. "Our filly is big and strong, and the extra distance isn't going to bother us at all. But Blind Luck is definitely the horse to beat."

              Rick Dutrow, trainer of Amen Hallelujah, said he is glad Devil May Care will go in the Derby, considering Amen Hallelujah was a well-beaten second behind her in the Bonnie Miss Stakes last month at Gulfstream Park.

              "It looks like we're very live now," said Dutrow. "It looks like our filly really likes this track. I'm very happy with the position we're in."

              Tidal Pool, second to Blind Luck in the April 2 Fantasy Stakes in the most recent start for both fillies, is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, whose last of four Oaks wins came 20 years ago with Seaside Attraction.

              Other contenders in the Oaks include Evening Jewel and It's Tea Time, the one-two finishers in the Ashland Stakes earlier this month; Quiet Temper, winner of the Fair Grounds Oaks; and Ailalea, the lone remaining entrant for the Pletcher stable.

              Rounding out the lineup are Jody Slew, Age of Humor, Beautician, Bella Diamante, Champagne d'Oro, and Joanie's Catch.

              Fifteen fillies were entered, with Seeking the Title being the lone exclusion. If all 14 start, the purse will be $584,300, with $329,662 to the winner.

              The last two out-of-town arrivals for the Oaks got here Tuesday, with Joanie's Catch coming by van following a 19-hour trip from south Florida and Evening Jewel coming on an early-morning charter flight from Southern California.

              The Oaks is carded as the 11th of 12 Friday races on a program that begins at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. The race will be televised live on the Bravo cable network on a one-hour show that begins at 5 p.m. Eastern, with the Oaks set for 5:45.

              The weather forecast for Friday calls for partly cloudy skies and a high temperature of 78. As usual, an ontrack crowd of more than 100,000 is expected.

              The Oaks will lead off a pair of two-day wagers: a daily double linked with the Derby and a pick three with the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic and the Derby.
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • #8
                Kentucky Derby Odds

                2010 Kentucky Derby Field
                Post Position Horse Jockey Trainer * Morning Line Odds
                1 Lookin At Lucky Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert 3/1
                2 Ice Box Jose Lezcano Nick Zito 10/1
                3 Noble's Promise Willie Martinez Kenny McPeek 12/1
                4 Super Saver Calvin Borel Todd Pletcher 15/1
                5 Line of David Rafael Bejarano John Sadler 30/1
                6 Statley Victor Alan Garcia Mike Maker 30/1
                7 American Lion David Flores Eoin Harty 30/1
                8 Dean's Kitten Robby Albarado Michael Maker 50/1
                9 Make Music for Me Joel Rosario Alexis Barba 50/1
                10 Paddy O'Prado Kent Desormeaux Dale Romans 20/1
                11 Devil May Care John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 10/1
                12 Conveyance Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 12/1
                13 Jackson Bend Mike Smith Nick Zito 15/1
                14 Mission Impazible Rajiv Maragh Todd Pletcher 20/1
                15 Discreetly Mine Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 30/1
                16 Awesome Act Julien Leparoux Jeremy Noseda 10/1
                17 Dublin Terry Thompson D. Wayne Lukas 12/1
                18 Backtalk Miguel Mena Tom Amoss 50/1
                19 Homeboykris Ramon Dominguez Richard Dutrow, Jr. 50/1
                20 Sidney's Candy Joe Talamo John Sadler 5/1



                *Morning Line Odds provided by oddsmaker Mike Battaglia of Churchill Downs
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • #9
                  At the Gate - Friday

                  With all the excitement surrounding Oaks Day and Saturday’s Derby Day at Churchill Downs, let’s not forget it is opening day at Belmont Park on Friday.

                  The 59-day meeting gets underway this afternoon with the $100,000 Westchester, which drew a field of nine older runners including last year’s winner Bribon.

                  The race is one of 25 graded stakes during the meeting, which is highlighted by the $1 million Belmont Stakes (G1) on June 5, the third and final jewel of the Triple Crown.

                  The first Grade 1 of the meet is the 118th running of the $500,000 Metropolitan Handicap on Monday, May 31, which is Memorial Day.

                  Saturday’s card features the $100,000 Fort Marcy (G3) and the $100,000 Beaugay (G3) for fillies and mares, both at 1 1/16th miles on the turf. On Sunday, the New York Stallion Series takes place with the $100,000 Park Avenue for three-year-old fillies and the $100,000 Times Square division for three year-old males.

                  The racing action on Oaks Day at Churchill Downs kicks off at 10:30am ET with an outstanding 12 race card that includes six stakes races.

                  The $500,000 Kentucky Oaks (G1) is the marquee event, although last year’s Oaks winner is in action earlier on the card.

                  Rachel Alexandra is looking to rebound off her defeat to Zardana in the New Orleans Ladies when they meet up again in the $400,000 La Troienne (G2) going 1 1/16 miles on the main track.

                  Trainer Steve Asmussen admitted he did not have the filly totally cranked up for her start at Fair Grounds, which was off a six month layoff.

                  She should move forward off that effort and turn the tables on Zardana, and is the 3/5 morning line favorite in the field of six.

                  She needs to run a strong race, or any chances of seeing a showdown between her and Zenyatta goes right out the window.

                  Friday’s weather in Louisville is going to be outstanding, but there is an 80% chance of strong thunderstorms starting Saturday morning and continuing throughout the day.

                  It appears the rain will start around 4am and there is a 70% chance of thunderstorms right up until post time for the Kentucky Derby, which is at 6:24 ET.

                  Of course, it would not be the first time the weathermen were wrong, so let’s hope for the best, particularly for the four races carded for the turf on Saturday, which are all excellent betting races.

                  To purchase my full card report for Churchill Downs and Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.

                  Here is today's opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:

                  BEL Race 1 OClm $25,000N2X (1:00 ET)
                  #8 Johannesburg Smile 3/1
                  #7 Itsagoodtendollars 5/2
                  #6 Summer Share 5/1
                  #5 Tommasi 6/1

                  Analysis: #8 Johannesburg Smile battled for the early lead and could not hang with the top pair late in a third place finish, beaten a length for the top spot. The runner up in the race was Star of New York, who came back to beat NY bred optional claimers in his next outing on April 7. The colt has worked steadily and quickly since his last outing and he looks like he may appreciate the cut back to one turn.

                  #7 Itsagoodtendollars returns off a two month break and lands in the Breen barn. The colt caught a muddy track last out in his first start at this condition, rallying up the inside to finish fourth. The winner Mighty Morris ran second and then won a NY stake in his next two starts while the runner up Most Happy Fella beat state bred Alw-2 optional claimers on March 19 and then ran sixth and last in the Wood (G1). Edgar takes the call coming off a couple of hot weeks at the Big A and this barn can have them ready to go off the short break.

                  Wagering
                  WIN: #8 to win at 2/1 or better.
                  EX: 7,8 / 5,6,7,8
                  TRI: 7,8 / 5,6,7,8 / 4,5,6,7,8

                  Today's Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:

                  CD Race 9 Alysheba G3 (3:54 ET)
                  #3 Macho Again 5/1
                  #6 Bullsbay 6/1
                  #7 Arson Squad 3/1
                  #1 Chocolate Candy 5/1

                  Analysis: #3 Macho Again is making his first start since October for the Stewart barn that is 12% winners with horses coming back off a 90+ break. The five year old was beaten just a head in the Woodward as he almost ran down Rachel Alexandra, and his form went south in his two starts after that hard effort. He failed to fire in this race last year, but did return to win the Stephen Foster (G1) here, and has won three of six overall here in his career. He looks like he is working sharply and looks primed for a good effort in his return here.

                  #6 Bullsbay is also making his first start since the Clark (G2) last November. He won this race last year, one of three wins over the oval in five trips. The Motion barn is 18% winners with horses coming back off a +90 day layoff. He should be tight enough off works at Fair Hill for a sharp barn.

                  Wagering
                  WIN: #3 to win at 3/1 or better.
                  EX: 3,6 / 1,3,6,7
                  TRI: 3,6 / 1,3,6,7 / 1,2,3,6,7

                  Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

                  BEL Race 8 Westchester G3 (4:45 ET)
                  #6 Bribon 9/5
                  #5 Honest Man 5/1
                  #8 Convocation 7/2
                  #4 Ironman Jon 5/1

                  Analysis: #6 Bribon was beaten just a neck last out when shipped to Barbados while well clear of the rest of the field. The gelding popped a couple of bullet works and is back on his favorite surface. He won this race last year and followed that up by winning the Met Mile (G1) in his following outing. The seven year old will be tough to beat here as the likely short priced favorite.

                  #5 Honest Man is making his first start off a year layoff with Tony D. taking over the training duties form the retired Larry Jones. The six year old has run well off the bench and the barn is 28% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff.

                  Wagering
                  WIN: #6 to win at 8/5 or better.
                  EX: 5,6 / 4,5,6,8
                  TRI: 5,6 / 4,5,6,8 / 1,4,5,6,8

                  Live Longshots:
                  These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

                  Belmont Park
                  R2: #5 Runaway Bride 8/1
                  R3: #6 Bail Out the Banks 8/1
                  R4: #9 Sumwhrovtherainbw 8/1
                  R5: #4 Blow Up 10/1
                  R6: #5 Wadi Suki 10/1
                  R6: #2 Oedipus O’Neal 15/1
                  R7: #11 Little Alex 8/1
                  R7: #8 Themainintheglass 12/1

                  Good luck today!
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Rain in the forecast for Kentucky Derby

                    LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) -The favorite was pulled at the start of the week. Heavy thunderstorms in the forecast could turn the dirt strip at Churchill Downs into something resembling peanut butter.

                    A year after Mine That Bird won at 50-1 odds by hugging the rail in the slop, the Kentucky Derby is setting up for another wild finish Saturday. A full field of 20 3-year-olds is poised to run 1 1/4 miles for a $1.4 million prize.

                    Lookin At Lucky is the 3-1 morning-line choice, with Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert seeking his fourth victory. He inherited the role of favorite after trainer Todd Pletcher withdrew Eskendereya because of a swollen leg. Eskendereya was touted as the latest super horse after winning his last two starts by a combined 18 1/4 lengths.

                    ``You got to be prepared for disappointment,'' said Baffert, whose front-running Pioneerof the Nile was overtaken in the stretch last year by Mine That Bird. ``Especially in this race because you never know what's going to happen.''

                    Pletcher, who is 0 for 24 in the Derby, will still saddle four horses but none is as highly regarded. The second choice is Sidney's Candy at 5-1, followed by three others at 10-1 - Awesome Act, Ice Box and Pletcher's Devil May Care.

                    Devil May Care is trying to become the fourth filly to win America's most famous race. She was entered after regular rider John Velazquez became available when Eskendereya withdrew.

                    The forecast calls for highs in the mid-70s and a 100 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms that could produce 1 inch of rain in the morning. Then there could be showers totaling a quarter of an inch through post time of 6:28 p.m. EDT.

                    The wettest Derby day was May 11, 1918, when 2.31 inches of rain fell, according to National Weather Service records.

                    Depending on how gloomy it gets, the 136th Derby could be the first run under the lights that were installed last winter. Churchill Downs says it has the option of flipping the switch to brighten things up.

                    Most of the field has no experience racing in the muck, including Lookin At Lucky, who has run only once on dirt but won. The colt, along with Sidney's Candy, Conveyance and American Lion are from California, where they run on synthetic surfaces.

                    ``A lot of those horses are going to have mud splashed in their face,'' Baffert said. ``It hits their belly and face. They throw their head up, they lose interest and they get scared.''

                    The last horse before Mine That Bird to win in the mud was Smarty Jones, who splashed to victory in 2004. His son, Backtalk, is in the field Saturday and he's 2 for 2 on a wet track.

                    Other Derby horses with success in wet conditions are Super Saver, Devil May Care and Discreetly Mine - all trained by Pletcher. His fourth horse is Mission Impazible. Super Saver is ridden by Calvin Borel, who has won two of the last three derbies. Kent Desormeaux, a three-time winner, is aboard Paddy O'Prado.

                    ``Normally I'd be sweating the weather forecast, but seeing the way they trained on a sloppy track, I wouldn't mind if it rained,'' Pletcher said.

                    Lookin At Lucky comes from off the pace and will have to work his way through the field from the No. 1 post under Garrett Gomez. Baffert's other horse, Conveyance, could avoid having mud splashed in his face because of his early speed.

                    A crowd of 153,563 turned out for last year's Derby, though the forecast could deter some fans, especially in the infield, where there is little shelter.

                    Either way, when the starting gate opens, the atmosphere is always electric.

                    ``You feel like you're a gladiator going to the Roman Colosseum,'' two-time Derby winning trainer Nick Zito said. He will send out Ice Box and Jackson Bend.

                    Weight loss maven Jenny Craig will be on hand to cheer Sidney's Candy, named for her late husband. Los Angeles Dodgers manager Joe Torre co-owns long shot Homeboykris.

                    A bunch of regular Joes own 12-1 shot Noble's Promise, bought for $10,000 by a group that calls itself Chasing Dreams Racing. Stately Victor is owned by Louisville attorney Tom Conway and son Jack, Kentucky's attorney general and a U.S. Senate candidate.

                    The race could be decided early. With Lookin At Lucky stuck down on the rail and Sidney's Candy in the far outside 20th post, the cavalry charge to the first turn could eliminate a lot of horses.

                    ``The first quarter-mile, that's where it all happens,'' Baffert said. ``If you can make it through the first turn unscathed, you have a chance.''

                    A victory would tie him with four-time winner D. Wayne Lukas, who saddles long-shot Dublin.

                    ``The surprises in the Derby are always huge,'' Lukas said.
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      American Lion ready to roar in the Derby

                      LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) -A few lucky omens have Eoin Harty feeling positive about American Lion's chances Saturday in the Kentucky Derby.

                      ``I found a four-leaf clover a few days ago and I've drawn post number seven,'' the Irish-born trainer said. ``I was number seven in Dubai.''

                      Breaking from that lucky number, Well Armed won last year's Dubai World Cup. Harty hopes the same post produces similar magic in the Derby.

                      American Lion solidified a spot in this Derby with a strong front-running victory on April 3 in the Illinois Derby, the colt's first attempt on dirt after five races on synthetic surfaces.

                      ``I thought it was a really good run,'' Harty said. ``The weather conditions up there were less than ideal. It was constantly blowing like 30 miles an hour down the stretch. I wanted to put him on the lead anyway because it seemed like the race was devoid of speed.''

                      Harty feels the colt has improved since then.

                      ``His weight is better that it's been,'' Harty said. ``His coat is better. His attitude is good. He's out of a Storm Cat mare and he has a tendency to get a little worked up. I've been schooling him every day since I've been here and every day he goes over there he's better and better. All the signs are good.''

                      Unfortunately, American Lion has the same front-running style as several horses in the field. There could be a lot of jockeying among the speed horses for early position.

                      ``If he makes it around the first turn unscathed, he's got a legitimate shot,'' Harty said.

                      American Lion is 30-1 with David Flores set to ride.

                      ---

                      PADDY PREPS: Paddy O'Prado has quietly shined as he prepares for the Kentucky Derby.

                      The colt trained by Dale Romans hasn't generated much buzz beyond Churchill Downs. It's a different story among rival trainers who point to him as a horse thriving in the days leading up to Saturday's race. Hall of Famer Nick Zito mentioned Paddy O'Prado as catching his eye.

                      ``Don't put any more pressure on us than we already have, please,'' Romans said.

                      Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia certainly didn't, listing Paddy O'Prado at 20-1 on the morning line from post No. 10. Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux, a three-time Derby winner, will be aboard.

                      Paddy O'Prado turned in a snappy workout in the slop last week, zipping five furlongs in 58.40 seconds. He has followed that with a series of strong gallops.

                      The fact he has taken to the dirt is a promising development, considering his limited experience. He debuted at Churchill Downs last July, finishing seventh in the slop.

                      His next four races were on the turf, including a win in the Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Most recently, Paddy O'Prado ran second to Stately Victor in the Blue Grass Stakes over the synthetic track at Keeneland.

                      ``He proved that he belongs that day,'' Romans said.

                      Can Paddy O'Prado handle the dirt in the Derby?

                      ``You can tell if a horse won't run on a particular surface a lot of times before you put them on it,'' Romans said. ``It's much harder to tell if they will run well on one, until you see it on race day.''

                      ---

                      TUNING UP: Make Music for Me, the last horse to gain a slot in the 20-horse Derby field, paid a visit to the starting gate for schooling Thursday morning before a 1 1/2-mile gallop.

                      Making the Derby for the first time fulfills a lifelong dream for trainer Alexis Barba.

                      ``I think you just go through the motions of working every day and when one pops up, you go, 'Oh, wow, this is pretty neat,``' she said.

                      The late defections of Endorsement and Interactif on Wednesday opened the door for Make Music for Me to join the field only minutes before the entry deadline.

                      Barba had hedged her bets in case a Derby spot never materialized. Make Music for Me was also entered in the American Turf on Friday at Churchill Downs, but will scratch that race to tackle the Derby as a 50-1 outsider.

                      Even at those odds, the Derby is a priceless experience.

                      ``It's a hard feeling to express,'' Barba said. ``Of course, you want to win it, but do you get to do it? You've got to be the lucky one to get there, because it's all about luck after this.''

                      Make Music for Me will need a lot of luck as he sports one of the thinnest resumes in the field. He is only 1 for 8, the lone win coming in a minor grass stakes at Santa Anita in March.

                      Barba, who trains a modest nine-horse stable in Southern California, would become the first woman to saddle a Kentucky Derby winner. Although she has never had a horse in the race, Barba has a cherished Derby connection. She was an exercise rider and assistant trainer for the late Eddie Gregson when Gato Del Sol won in 1982.

                      ``I wasn't here with Gato but I had occasions to ride him,'' Barba said. ``It was very exciting when he won. It was a dream come true. I would have been satisfied with that one in a lifetime. To be in this position is a journey, an unexpected journey.''

                      ---

                      LOOKING BACK: It's been 16 years since Hall of Famer Nick Zito won the Derby for a second time with Go for Gin. He will try to end the drought this year with the duo of Florida Derby winner Ice Box at 10-1 odds and Jackson Bend listed at 15-1.

                      Over the years, Zito has come to appreciate how many obstacles there are in the race.

                      ``It's very, very tough because everything has to go just perfect, every single thing,'' he said. ``You've got to have great weeks, you can't have nothing wrong. The workout has got to be perfect, the horse has got to be perfect and the trip has got to be perfect.''

                      Most importantly, you have to have something under the saddle.

                      ``You've got to have the horse,'' Zito said. ``And he has to have done something.''

                      Of the two, Ice Box holds a decisive edge on that score. He rallied from 19 1/2 lengths off the pace in the Florida Derby, his third win in seven starts.

                      Jackson Bend, by contrast, is winless this year, finishing second in three races.
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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