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**StarDust Bum** · 04-24-2010, 11:57 AM

Fox Saturday Baseball

This week’s edition of Fox Saturday Baseball is the domain of the American League with both tilts emanating out of the Junior Circuit. Seattle heads to the Windy City for a showdown with the White Sox. Meanwhile, the Yankees continue their series with the Halos out in the OC.

Mariners at White Sox – 4:00 p.m. EDT

Most betting shops have posted the White Sox as $1.14 home favorites (risk $114 to win $100) with a total of nine. Gamblers can take the M’s for a nice plus-133 return (risk $100 to win $133).

Seattle (9-8, +130) was supposed to be the team to challenge the Angels for AL West supremacy. Well, the M’s are starting to look like that team the experts had expected. The Mariners are coming into this series having won seven of their last nine games. Even bettor for the gambling public is that they covered the run line in eight of those nine tests as well.

The Mariners are going to send Doug Fister (2-1, 1.42) out to the mound to start the second game of this three-game set. Fister (rough name to have when growing up) has shined in his last two starts, giving up just one earned run in 15 innings of work. Plus, he struck out seven while issuing one walk in those tilts at home against the Orioles and Athletics. Fister’s lone setback came on the road, where he lasted only four innings in a 6-2 decision in Oakland on April 8.

Fister has actually failed to show up when away from Safeco Field in his brief career. In five career road starts, he is 0-3 with an earned run average of 4.72. Compare that to a 5-2 mark and 2.87 ERA in eight home starts.

Chicago (5-9, -539) is looking for anything to make itself feel better right now after the debacle they just faced with the Rays in town. The White Sox won the series opener against Tampa Bay, but lost the final two games by a combined score of 22-2. And you know somewhere in U.S. Cellular Field, Ozzie Guillen has elevated himself to DEFCON 2. Of course, a 7-6 series opening win over the Mariners could make Guillen relax a little bit.

The White Sox will be look to Freddy Garcia (0-2, 8.10) to turn around their fortunes. In his last start of the season, Garcia was rocked for seven earned runs in three innings of work on the road against the Blue Jays in a 7-3 loss on April 15. We shouldn’t be shocked by this outcome since his teams are 2-4 in his last six road tests. It doesn’t get better at home for Garcia, evidenced by a 2-5 record in his last seven home dates.

The Pale Hose have seen the ‘under’ go 5-3-1 at home this year. However, those last two games against the Rays both saw the ‘over’ cash tickets.

Seattle hasn’t shown too much on totals away from home with a 3-3-1 mark in seven road tilts.

The M’s have not done well on the road against AL Central clubs over the last two seasons, evidenced by an 18-32 record. That includes a 2-5 mark in their last seven games in this situation.

The head-to-head series of a year ago was owned by the Mariners, but barely as they went 5-4. Chicago has gone 5-1 in its last six home fixtures against Seattle. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in those contests.

Yankees at Angels – 4:00 p.m. EDT

Good times can’t keep going for everyone. Just ask the Yankees for proof of that right now. New York (11-5, +445) had a six-game win streak snapped by a 4-2 defeat against the A’s as a $1.75 road favorite on Thursday. As bad as that was, the fact that they’ve won all three of road series so far is pretty impressive. That loss did, however, set up the first two-game slide for the Yanks as they fell on Friday night to the Halos, 6-4.

New York will give the starting duties to Andy Pettitte (2-0, 1.35) on Saturday afternoon. Not a bad choice for the Yanks have won all three of his starts this season. In his last start, Pettitte went eight strong innings, giving up two earned runs en route to a 5-2 win over the Ranger at home on April 18.

Los Angeles (9-9, -137) are getting closer to breaking even, but not quite there yet. The Angels enter the series with the defending champs having lost two straight to Detroit. Bettors have taken note to play the ‘under’ recently with the Halos, as it has cashed in six of their last nine contests.

Joel Pineiro (2-1, 1.77) will be tasked with starting Game 2 against the Yanks. This isn’t a bad spot for the Angels to be tossing their No. 4 starter into the fray. Pineiro has won his last two starts with one of them coming at New York on April 14 (7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7K, 0BB).

The sportsbooks have installed the Yankees as $1.08 road favorites with a total of 9 ½. You can take the Halos to win for a plus-102 return.

Los Angeles does have the advantage of winning four of its last six regular season battles with the Bronx Bombers at home.

The ‘over’ is 6-3 in New York’s road games this season. However, the ‘under’ has cashed in the Yankees’ past two road tests and six times in their last eight games.

The Angels are 8-2 in their last 10 games as home pups to AL East foes, with the ‘over’ going 6-3-1. Tighten that up to facing left-handers and they’re 3-1, with two of those three wins coming against the Yanks.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-24-2010, 01:23 PM

Saturday's Western Tips

Suns at Trail Blazers**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened this game as a pick ‘em with a total of 203. As of late Friday, most betting shops were listing the Suns as 1 ½-point favorites with a total of 202.

--Phoenix (56-29 straight up, 50-34-1 against the spread) has won back-to-back games to regain homecourt advantage after losing Game 1 to the Trail Blazers. In Game 3 at Portland, the Suns dealt out woodshed treatment in the form of a 108-89 shellacking that was never in doubt. They covered the number as 1 ½-point road underdogs, while the 197 combined points resulted in the series’ first ‘under.’

--Jason Richardson erupted for a game-high 42 points to spark Phoenix to victory in Game 3. The Michigan St. product also pulled down eight rebounds. Amare Stoudemire had 20 points, while Steve Nash finished with 14 points and 10 assists.

--Andre Miller was the catalyst in Portland’s Game 1 win at Phoenix as an 8 ½-point underdog. Miller dropped 31 points on the Suns that night, but he settled for just 11 points in Game 3. LaMarcus Aldridge had a team-high 17 points in Thursday’s losing effort.

--Portland’s star player, guard Brandon Roy, remains ‘out’ although he holds out hope of maybe returning to the court late next week. Of course, Greg Oden is also still ‘out’ for the rest of the year. Now Nicolas Batum is expected to miss Game 4 with a shoulder injury. Batum averaged 15.0 points per game in Games 1 and 2 at Phoenix.

--Portland has a 26-16 SU record and a 19-22-1 ATS mark at home in the Rose Garden. The Trail Blazers have seen the ‘under’ go 23-19 in their home outings.

--When playing on one day of rest like Game 4, Phoenix owns an incredibly lucrative 32-14 spread record.

--The ‘over’ is 12-1-2 in 15 Phoenix games that had a total of 209 ½ or less this season.

--If the total stays at 202, that will be the lowest total in a Phoenix game all year.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 4:35 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

**Lakers at Thunder**

--LVSC opened Oklahoma City (51-34 SU, 50-35 ATS) as a 1 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 194 ½. As of late Friday, most spots had the Thunder as a two-point favorite with a total of 193 ½.

--Los Angeles (59-26 SU, 34-48-3ATS) really needs to step up and get a ‘W’ in Game 4 at OKC. Although the Lakers still own a 2-1 advantage in this best-of-seven series, they really haven’t played a quality game yet. Phil Jackson’s club barely escaped Game 2 with a victory back at Staples Center and didn’t completely pull away from the Thunder in Game 1 until the final minute.

--Oklahoma City won its first postseason home game since the franchise moved to the city Thursday night in Game 3. Trailing 2-0 in the series, Scott Brooks’ team answered the call in the city first taste of the playoffs, rallying from an early deficit to win by a 101-96 count as a 3 ½-point home ‘chalk.’

--OKC’s Kevin Durant was the catalyst in Game 3, clearly playing his best game of the series to date. Durant scored 29 points, pulled down 19 rebounds, dished out four assists and played outstanding at the defensive end of the court. Russell Westbrook produced 27 points, eight boards and four assists.

--In the losing effort, Kobe Bryant had a team-high 24 points for the Lakers, although he was an abysmal 10-of-29 from the field. Derek Fisher and Pau Gasol added 17 points apiece.

--The ‘under’ has cashed at a 7-3 clip in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these squads.

--The ‘under’ is 48-36-1 overall for the Lakers, 23-19 in their road assignments.

--The Thunder have watched the ‘over’ go 44-38-3 overall, 20-20-2 its home games.

--ESPN will have television coverage at 9:35 p.m. Eastern.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-24-2010, 01:23 PM

Saturday's East Tips

The Eastern Conference playoffs continue on Saturday as a pair of home teams look to climb out of 0-2 holes. Milwaukee has lost each of the first two games to Atlanta by double-digits, heading back to the Bradley Center for a night tip. During the day, the Bobcats host their first-ever playoff game when they battle the Magic.

Magic at Bobcats - 2:00 PM EST

Orlando has pretty much cruised along through its first two victories against Charlotte as the Magic looks to go up 3-0 when the series moves to North Carolina. Stan Van Gundy's team has limited the Bobcats to 83 ppg in the two wins, while drilling 23 three-pointers.

Charlotte fell behind by double-digits at halftime of each loss, as the Bobcats' offense simply couldn't keep up with Orlando's perimeter game. Following the ‘push’ on the total in Game 1, the second game easily finished ‘under’ the total of 186 with the Magic winning, 92-77. Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace combined for 42 points, but there was little contribution elsewhere from Larry Brown’s squad.

The Magic now hits the road where they have had plenty of success recently, winning nine of the last 12 away from Amway Arena (8-4 ATS). Orlando owns a sterling 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS mark on the road off a home win. The Magic has been one of the top ‘under’ clubs this season, while going ‘under’ the total in 11 of 15 games as road favorites off a home victory.

The Bobcats were one of the great home/away dichotomies in the NBA, compiling a 31-10 mark at home and 13-30 ledger on the road. Charlotte owns many solid wins on their home resume this season, including victories over the Lakers, Cavs (twice), Hawks (twice), Nuggets, Spurs, Thunder, and Suns. One of the playoff teams that the Bobcats couldn’t slay at home was the Magic, as Orlando went 2-0 SU/ATS at Time Warner Arena. The Magic has claimed each of the last four meetings in Charlotte dating back to 2008.

Charlotte responded well coming home off a loss, owning a 15-5 SU and 11-9 ATS mark. The Bobcats have been a terrific ‘under’ play as an underdog recently, doing so in 10 of the last 12 ‘dog opportunities.

The Magic is listed as a two-point road favorite in most spots, with the total set at 184 ½.

Hawks at Bucks – 7:00 PM EST

Atlanta is rolling right now, downing Milwaukee by double-digits in each of the first two wins of this series. The backdrop is now the Bradley Center, with the Bucks hosting their first playoff game since 2006 against the Pistons.

The Hawks held off the Bucks in the series opener, 102-92, as Atlanta jumped out to a 22-point halftime lead before Milwaukee made it interesting in the end. All five Hawks’ starters finished with double-figures, while rookie Brandon Jennings led all scorers with 34 points in his playoff debut.

Mike Woodson’s team had to work harder to close out the Bucks in Game 2 as Atlanta downed Milwaukee, 96-86. The Bucks struggled from downtown by shooting 4-24 (16.7%) from three-point range, while Jennings couldn’t duplicate his Game 1 effort with just nine points. Joe Johnson led all scorers with 27 as three Hawks tallied at least 20 points.

Playing without center Andrew Bogut has been a problem for the Bucks, as veteran Kurt Thomas is averaging 2.0 ppg through the first two losses. Al Horford has ripped up the paint for the Hawks by putting up a pair of double-doubles in the two victories.

The Hawks did have problems on the road in the regular season going 19-22 away from Philips Arena. Atlanta went 9-7 ATS but just 6-10 SU on the road off a home win, while the Bucks were a strong 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS at home following a road setback.

The two clubs split a pair of meetings at the Bradley Center as the Bucks held off the Hawks, 98-95 as six-point favorites on March 22. Atlanta avenged that defeat with a 104-96 triumph in mid-April, but the Hawks were firmly in control of that game as the Bucks were without Bogut.

The Bucks are currently listed as a one-point favorite, with the total set at 187.

Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood

-- After the Bulls and Thunder won on Thursday night to climb back into their respective series, the Bobcats and Bucks may be a worth a look on Saturday. Dating back to the 2008 playoffs, home teams down 0-2 in the first round are now 8-4 ATS, following Miami's buzzer-beating loss to Boston on Friday.

-- It’s amazing how the tide turns in a series as the Suns have rolled the Blazers twice to grab a 2-1 series lead. Portland held off Phoenix in the series opener, as the Blazers continue to play without leading scorer Brandon Roy. The Suns ambushed the Blazers in Game 2 before taking nearly a 30-point lead into the half of Thursday’s road blowout at Portland. The Suns were listed at 40 ½ regular season wins, but obliterated that total with 54 victories and have been one of the hottest clubs in the league since the Amare Stoudemire trade rumors went to sleep.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-24-2010, 06:53 PM

Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 4/23-4/25

LA DODGERS at WASHINGTON

LA DODGERS are 14-2 OVER (+12.0 Units) vs. NL teams allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 7.0, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 3*)

ATLANTA at NY METS

ATLANTA is 32-50 (-19.9 Units) against the money line in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 4.2, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)

SAN DIEGO at CINCINNATI

SAN DIEGO is 5-20 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.8, OPPONENT 6.6 - (Rating = 1*)

PITTSBURGH at HOUSTON

PITTSBURGH is 45-74 (-31.0 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.2, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*)

CHICAGO CUBS at MILWAUKEE

CHICAGO CUBS are 24-53 (-26.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .350 or better since 1997. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 4.4, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)

FLORIDA at COLORADO

COLORADO is 10-25 (-15.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 3.6, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)

PHILADELPHIA at ARIZONA

PHILADELPHIA is 31-15 (+13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.5, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)

ST LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO

SAN FRANCISCO is 53-34 (+20.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.2, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)

TORONTO at TAMPA BAY

TAMPA BAY is 9-1 (+9.0 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.9, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 2*)

BALTIMORE at BOSTON

BALTIMORE is 16-40 (-21.4 Units) against the money line vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.9, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)

DETROIT at TEXAS

TEXAS is 24-9 UNDER (+13.6 Units) in home games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 4.3, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)

MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY

KANSAS CITY is 14-40 (-25.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better since 1997. The average score was KANSAS CITY 4.2, OPPONENT 6.8 - (Rating = 1*)

SEATTLE at CHI WHITE SOX

WAKAMATSU is 27-15 (+13.0 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game as the manager of SEATTLE. The average score was SEATTLE 4.5, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)

CLEVELAND at OAKLAND

OAKLAND is 38-27 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 5.0, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)

NY YANKEES at LA ANGELS

LA ANGELS are 43-21 (+21.2 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.3, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 2*)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-24-2010, 06:54 PM

NHL Home Dogs Must Win or Else

For lowered seeded Colorado and Ottawa the task is simple – Win or enjoy your vacation. The Senators have already survived one elimination contest going to the third overtime to keep the NHL grim reaper away, as Matt Carkner scored at 7:06 to give Ottawa a 4-3 upset win as whopping +255 money line underdogs.

“There’s a lot of belief and trust in this room,” said the Senators’ Matt Cullen who created the screen for game winner. “We maintain a positive attitude and good feeling in here that we’re still in it.” Ottawa is back on home ice where they have lost twice already to Pittsburgh and is 3-9 in home games after allowing three goals or more in three straight tilts.

Pittsburgh for the second consecutive year let a wonderful opportunity slip thru their gloves, losing a Game 5 home contest with 3-1 lead.

“A lot happened (in the overtimes) with penalties and chances and posts, but that’s just the way it works out,” Sidney Crosby said. “Unfortunately, we didn’t get it done here, but we’ve got to find a way to regroup and be ready to go to Ottawa.” Pittsburgh is 26-8 off a home loss over the last two seasons.

Bookmaker.com has Ottawa as +150 home underdogs with Ov5.5 total and they are 12-18 in their own rink having lost two of three. The Senators are 8-2 OVER in all games this month.

This is Pittsburgh second chance to end this series and the last thing they want is a Game 7 off two losses and the Pens are 13-7 in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored four or more goals.

Colorado will try to live another day playing at the Pepsi Center, taking on San Jose who is starting to play like the top seed of the Western Conference. The Avalanche has two goals in the last three contests and things could be heading downhill.

San Jose's game plan for this series was to commence hitting the smaller and less experienced Colorado crew, with the hope of wearing them down physically. The Sharks have controlled the puck for long periods of time in winning three of the last four contests and in the 5-0 shutout in Game 5, they finally penetrated goalie Craig Anderson's armor.

Avalanche coach Joe Sacco doesn't want to believe that the Sharks have worn down his young team, which is missing several injured forwards, including Milan Hejduk and Peter Mueller.

"This is playoff hockey," he said. "We shouldn't be tired this time of the year. We should be re-energized. The level of play picks up in the playoffs, and at this time of the year you need to find a way to battle through it." Maybe the coach is right, nonetheless his squad is 10-20 home games after two or more consecutive losses.

Colorado is +160 underdog with the total hovering at Un5.5. The Avs are 8-3 revenging a zero on the scoreboard and San Jose has a long history of failure in Game 6 setting with 1-11 mark.

The Sharks will still be dangerous and are 17-4 after permitting two goals or less three games in a row and are 12-5 OVER off a home win by two goals or more this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-24-2010, 06:56 PM

NBA home teams have to turn up pressure

Charlotte and Milwaukee are in 0-2 holes and will be looking for energy from the home patrons attempting to hold serve in what is a must win scenario. Oklahoma City got the first of two they needed in Game 3 and also have to come up with a another victory, fully understanding what a daunting task it would be to go to L.A. having to win down 3-1 in the series. The roundball adventure continues for home clubs needing to come up big.

Orlando at Charlotte 2:00E TNT

Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson have accounted for 51.2 percent of the Bobcats offense, which suggests that others have to tickle the twine since Charlotte’s has two “L’s” to begin the series.

Charlotte is not a good outside shooting team, depending more on slashing and driving to the rim and collecting fouls for free throw attempts. Their loss Wednesday night was perfect illustration off what has gone wrong.

The Bobcats could not solve Orlando’s defensive schemes and committed 19 turnovers and had 17 fewer attempts from the charity stripe than the Magic (35-18).

"Our defense is keeping us in it, and our offense is keeping us out of the game," said center Tyson Chandler. "We can't come off what we do and just look for our jump shots. We're not a jump-shot team and not a 1-on-1 team.” Charlotte is 9-18 ATS after not covering two of their last three against the spread this season.

The Bobcats have to rev up the offense and are 15-5 ATS after scoring 80 points or less and 16-5 ATS after totaling 35 points or less in the first half.

They are two-point underdogs to Orlando, with total of 184.5 and the Magic are 16-4 ATS off two exact home contests. Coach Stan Van Gundy will seek similar balance as the last contest with five double digit scorers and the top four averaging 10-12 shots each.

Orlando has won five of last six in downtown Charlotte, covering four times and the UNDER is 5-1.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 7:30E ESPN

The Bucks have had ample time to correct their inadequacies, last playing Tuesday night. Milwaukee has been within contact in both games with Atlanta, but the general sense was the Hawks have not been really threatened in the series.

Milwaukee has to improve dramatically in transition defense if they expect to come out a winner in Game 3.

“As athletic as they are, it’s not like anybody’s dunking in a crowd on us. They’re wide open. The balls are going up, and they’re finishing them,” coach Scott Skiles explaining the 11 dunks and 19 layups his team allowed in the first two games. “All we’re comparing ourselves to is ourselves. We normally don’t give that stuff up. We need to not give that easy stuff up.”

The Bucks were the best cover team in the NBA this season at 51-28-3 ATS, but have dropped the first two in postseason. They are 14-4 ATS at the Bradley Center after two games as a road underdog.

The Bucks fans will be cascading boo’s down to Atlanta’s Josh Smith, who evidently has had too much time off and wants a part-time Travel Channel gig.

Smith was asked about what he would with his free time in Milwaukee and if he would ever vacation there. “Would you go? Would you go? Would you go up there?” Smith responded. “Everybody knows there ain’t nothing to do in Milwaukee, man. Everybody knows that.” Hello boo-birds.

Atlanta is a one-point underdog at Bookmaker.com and will be presented with a challenge, since Milwaukee is 19-6 and 14-10-1 ATS at home in 2010, however two of the spread losses have come from the Hawks. The Bucks are 13-4 ATS after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers and the Birds are 4-16 ATS as visitors in all playoff matchups.

L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City 9:30E ESPN

The Lakers had been dismissing talk of uninspired play for over a month, saying when the playoffs arrived they would be like a warship ready for battle, with all hands on deck. In their first true challenge of the playoffs (a No. 1 seed winning at home over a No. 8 doesn’t count), Los Angeles lacked the mental and physical capacity to succeed on the road, losing in the fourth quarter to Oklahoma City.

The Thunder outworked and showed greater desire in winning the crucial final 12 minutes 27-21, after holding one-point lead in the final stanza.

Oklahoma City is now 6-1 ATS against teams with a winning road record of late and can even this series if the Phil Jackson’s lethargic club settles for long jumps shots (31 three-point attempts) and doesn’t work the ball better into the paint. When Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison were paired together, they bottled up the Lakers big men in the lane and they offered little resistance in demanding the ball.

Though smaller in stature, OKC’s big guys were superior in boxing out the taller L.A. bunch and destroyed them on the glass with effort and hustle 53-39.

Kobe Bryant and his teammates continue to be play without discipline and have the patience of a three year old. Kevin Durant had more free throws than the Lake Show (13-12) and Bryant returned to selfish ways of seeking his shot, which could be a function of the rest of the Lakers players not actively working to take quality shots. It’s no wonder they are 13-24 ATS in second half of the season this season.

The Thunder are two-point favorites and are 13-3 ATS when the favored by 4.5 or less, with L.A. 2-8 ATS in reverse role of 4.5 or fewer points underdog. With the total at 194, the purple clad Lakers are 12-4 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season, losing by 1.9 points a game.

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