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**StarDust Bum** · 04-23-2010, 04:23 PM

Friday, April 23Game Score Status Pick Amount

Montreal - 7:00 PM ET Montreal +297 500 *****
Washington - Over 6 500 *****

Boston - 7:00 PM ET Buffalo -146 500
Buffalo - Over 5 500

Los Angeles - 10:00 PM ET Los Angeles +165 500 *****
Vancouver - Over 5.5 500 *****

Detroit - 10:00 PM ET Phoenix +110 500 *****
Phoenix - Over 5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 04-23-2010, 04:30 PM

Boston and Washington in closers role

The Philadelphia Flyers looked like Brad Lidge from 2008 last night is ending New Jersey’s season and moving on to next round. Boston and Washington are in the same position up 3-1 in their respective first round series and will attempt to do to the same thing, finish off opponent and move to Eastern semi-finals of the Stanley Cup.

Washington on full alert

After spending several overnight hours on an airport tarmac because of weather and customs delays, Washington Capitals coach Bruce Boudreau found a bit of a silver lining. “Better fog than ash,” he quipped.

True, the Capitals aren’t among the thousands whose lives have been disrupted because of flight cancellations following the eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull volcano, but an unexpected travel adventure did put a kink in Thursday’s preparation for Game 5 of Washington’s first-round series against the Montreal Canadiens.

Given that his players stayed up virtually all night trying to get home from Wednesday’s Game 4, Boudreau had little choice but to cancel practice. “It was a pretty long night, but we made it through it,” said right wing Eric Fehr, one of only three players hanging around the practice facility at midday. “It’s going to be good getting a little bit of sleep today.”

The Capitals, with a 3-1 lead after their 6-3 Game 4 win, can wrap up the series Friday. Washington is 11-0 at home after scoring six goals or more in their previous game and now they have even more incentive to do so.
“We don’t want to get on the plane again and go back to Montreal,” defenseman Joe Corvo said.

Flying home after their victory, the Capitals ran into fog that kept them from landing at Dulles International Airport or Reagan National Airport, so they touched down at Baltimore-Washington International Airport a little after 1 a.m. But there were no custom agents on duty at BWI, so the team sat on the plane for nearly 3 hours. Some calls were made, agents were found, and the team finally cleared customs.“I didn’t get to bed until 5 a.m., so it’s a little foggy today,” said Corvo, who was so tired he didn’t realize he was making a pun.

The Capitals are the first to say that they’ll need to be re-energized for Game 5. They came from 3-1 down to oust the New York Rangers in the first round last year, so they know the Canadiens are capable of doing the same.

“I don’t think the job is anywhere near done yet,” Boudreau said. “And, quite frankly, if players think that way, we’re in trouble. … When you start looking forward to the next series, and the next series, then all of a sudden you realize you’re not in that next series.” Washington is 41-15 off a victory on ice.

Still, it’s worth noting the other three Eastern Conference series also started 3-1. The Capitals don’t want to be the last team to wrap up business in the first round. “It’s something in our best interest to finish tomorrow,” Corvo said, “and definitely put our best effort in the series. The closing game is never the easiest one.”

At least the Canadiens don’t intend it to be.

“Now we really have nothing to lose,” Montreal left wing Michael Cammalleri said. “Now it’s, like, let’s go play a sense of looseness in our game. I don’t mean that as far as technically or as far as giving them opportunities or playing an open game, because they’re so dynamic that you can’t do that. I mean as far as maybe some composure with the puck on our part and maybe a little more calm in our presence.” The Canadiens are 8-4 off a loss by three or more goals.

Except for the 5-1 win in Game 3, the series hasn’t been easy for the Capitals. They lost Game 1 and were in a 4-1 hole in Game 2. Their top-ranked power play is 1 for 19—in fact, they’ve scored more goals (two) with a man down than with a man advantage. They’ve switched goalies, sitting veteran Jose Theodore for youngster Semyon Varlamov.

The Capitals were dominated in the second period by the Canadiens on Wednesday and were fortunate to survive with the score tied at 2. Alexander Semin, who had 40 goals in the regular season, has no goals and just one assist in the series.

Add all those things up, and it’s easy to understand why Fehr sounded as if the Capitals are on the verge of being swept. “We didn’t necessarily deserve both wins” in Montreal, Fehr said. “I don’t think we’re happy with the way we’ve played 40-minute games, 30-minute games. We haven’t put a full game together. We are up in the series, but we’ve gotten lucky.”

But the Canadiens haven’t taken advantage. “You can’t sit and think about what could have been,” Cammalleri said, “or where we could be or anything like that. You’ve got to just be aware of where we are—and where we are is still alive.” Montreal however is 1-11 as a playoff underdog.

Sportsbook.com has Washington as gargantuan -340 money line favorites with total of Ov6 and they have won eight of last 11 as postseason chalk. The Caps are 12-4 OVER after scoring five goals or more in consecutive contests. Montreal is searching for any answers and is 17-11 in triple revenge and 7-0 UNDER off consecutive home losses by two goals or more. VERSUS and TSN have Game 5 starting at 7:00 Eastern.

Sabres offense needs punch

Coach Lindy Ruff spoke softly on the day after one of the most difficult losses in Buffalo Sabres history. He was ruffled still, maybe, but optimistic nonetheless. “The game was right there. We have to finish,” Ruff said Thursday while the Sabres practiced at HSBC Arena. “Our key players are going to have to make a difference, and they haven’t yet. We know with our goaltender we can crawl back.”

The Sabres suffered a crushing defeat Wednesday night in Boston, losing 3-2 in double overtime to the Bruins on a power-play goal by former Sabres star Miroslav Satan to fall behind 3-1 in the seven-game series. What made the loss so tough was that Boston got the decisive power play in the second extra period when the Sabres were caught with too many men on the ice.

Buffalo enters Game 5 at home on Friday night on the brink of elimination despite having trailed for less than 20 minutes in the first four games. The Sabres were 31-6-4 in the regular season when scoring first and are 1-3 in this series, and they were 30-0-0 when entering the third period with a lead during the season and are 1-2 against Boston after squandering a 2-0 lead in their latest setback.

“It’s a little bit frustrating. In two of the four games we’ve been up by two goals,” Sabres captain Craig Rivet said. “We’ve been a real, real solid team all season long playing with the lead, playing with confidence. We’ve hit a bit of adversity right now, something we’re going to try to battle through.

“We just feel that if we continue to play like we did last game we’re going to give ourselves a chance to win the next game. We’re dealing with it. We can’t turn back time and hope for something different. We have to go out and change it, and it’s going to start with the next game.” Buffalo is 27-12 after two road encounters.

Injured left wing Thomas Vanek, the Sabres’ leading scorer, skated for about 45 minutes on Thursday and said his left foot was feeling better. Still, Vanek was favoring the leg when he walked into the locker room after the workout. He said he would skate again on Friday, talk to Ruff, and make a decision about whether to play in Game 5.

“It’s frustrating,” Vanek said. “Obviously, you’d like to be out there and help. But we’re a good enough team, even if I’m not out there. I don’t think that makes the difference.” What could make the difference is lack of rest with the Sabres 1-5 recently with a day between games.

The Sabres do miss Vanek and have not scored a power-play goal in 14 tries. He has a real knack with the man advantage and Vanek has led the NHL with 20 power-play goals in 2008-09.

“If he’s 75 percent and the pace of that game is the way it is, it might be a very bad place to be,” said Ruff, who has had to limit the ice time of center Tim Connolly because he’s still not fully recovered from a late-season foot injury. “I would love dearly to put him in. We’ll see. That’ll be a big discussion.” Buffalo needs more scoring and is 12-2 on home ice after scoring two goals or less in back to back outings.

Rivet was a member of the Montreal Canadiens when they rallied from a 3-1 deficit to beat Boston in the 2004 Stanley Cup playoffs, and the Bruins were anticipating perhaps their stiffest test in what has been a grueling first-round series.

“Those are the toughest games to win, the elimination games,” Bruins winger Blake Wheeler said. “It’s going to be a huge challenge for us, even more so than the last four games have been. It’s going to take even a little bit more than the last few games to pull it out.”

“We know they’re going to come out and play fighting for their lives,” added Boston’s Milan Lucic. “I mean, we were in their position last year and the year before, so we expect their best. We need to take our game to another notch.” Boston will look to feed off the momentum they’ve built and is 37-15 having won three of their last four games.

The Bruins scored the second-fewest goals in the NHL this year—and the fewest of any playoff team—and didn’t clinch a spot in the playoffs until the final week of the regular season. That they’re sitting in the catbird seat after three straight wins is in great part due to the standout play of goalie Tuukka Rask. Rask has allowed eight goals on 131 shots for a save percentage of .939, third-best in the playoffs and a tad better than Buffalo’s Ryan Miller (10 goals allowed on 137 shots for .927).

“Offensively, we’re going to have to be a little bit better. Special teams will have to be better,” Ruff said. “Hockey has a strange way of operating. Your next game has to be your best game.”

The Sabres are -155 money line choice with total Un5.5. Buffalo has taken 14 of last 20 at home vs. Boston and is 12-4 revenging a road loss. The Bruins 5-11 as a road underdog of +150 or less, but have managed 6-2 mark in last eight road assignments.

This Game 5 has 7:05E start on CBC and NESN and Boston is 14-5 UNDER on the road with three game unbeaten streak.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-23-2010, 04:31 PM

MLB Series Betting- Minnesota at Kansas City

The Minnesota Twins were picked to win the Central Division of the American League and they have gotten off to the kind of start that has propelled them right to the top with 11-5 record. The Twins just completed their first-ever homestand at Target Field with 6-3 record and head back on the road where they have begun the year 5-2.

Kansas City was not picked to win the division and is not considered to be a contender. Thus far the Royals have also played to form with 6-9 record. Don’t blame the offense; Kansas City is fourth in the AL in runs scored at 4.7. The culprit has been the relief pitching which has been atrocious with 6.95 ERA and five blown saves in less than three weeks.

These teams met last week in the Twin Cities with Minnesota winning the series and the Twins will look to go 5-0 in series to start 2010, as they embark on nine game road trip.

Minnesota has been spectacular as series starter with a 38-16 record playing on Friday’s over the last three seasons. They will give the ball to Carl Pavano (2-1, 4.96 ERA, 1.347 WHIP) who was roughed up for seven runs and 11 hits in 3 1/3 innings in last week’s 10-5 loss to the Royals, however he is 7-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last two seasons, thanks to run support of eight runs an outing. (Team's Record)

Kansas City is a +123 ML underdog with total Ov9.5 at Sportsbook.com and will start Gil Meche (0-1). The right-hander has been completely ineffective as seen with 11.58 ERA and WHIP of 2.358.

“Two games in a row where I can’t get away from the big inning, both happening early in the ballgame,” Meche said. “You’ve got to make better pitches. … If you don’t do that, you’re going to pay for it.” The Royals are the complete opposite of their opponent with 7-21 mark on Friday’s.

Game 1 Edge: Minnesota

The Kansas City offense has clicked much better with the much-traveled and injured Scott Podsednik being in the lineup. Podsednik is batting robust .449 and has also taken eight walks in his 13 starts. He’s also been a base-running thief, stealing seven of eight in 2010.

"I don't think there's a coincidence at all," manager Trey Hillman said of Podsednik being out of the lineup in two losses to Toronto this week. "You take that speed [out] of the lineup and you take that kind of on-base percentage, the threat of stealing a base, it's important, just because of the pace that he's kept up to this point.”

The Royals begin the series 2-4 at Kauffman Stadium and are horrendous 16-37 at home since last year and hand the horsehide to Luke Hochevar (2-0, 2.89, 1.393). The 26-year old righty was not at his best against the Twins last Sunday, with five walks along with six hits in his six innings, but he pitched his way out of several jams and got the win.

The old baseball pitching edict of “throw strikes” is a big reason why the Twins have started so well. Coming into the weekend the pitching staff has yielded a Major League-low 37 bases on balls, which helps prevents big innings.

Minnesota has won their last 18 of 23 against teams with losing records and will start Nick Blackburn (1-1, 6.05, 1.499). The deliberate right-hander is off two shaky starts (10 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings) and has to do a better job locating pitches, being tagged for six home runs in fewer than 20 innings this season. Blackburn and the Twinkies are 7-19 in his roads starts.

Game 2 Edge: Kansas City
There was a great deal of concern about Minnesota bullpen once closer Joe Nathan went down. To this point those concerns are unwarranted with 2.62 ERA, six for six in save chances and better than 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. If Kevin Slowey (2-1, 2.45, 1.255) can pitch like his last outing, the pen will be well-rested. Slowey has an easy arm motion and excellent feel for how to pitch and threw eight innings of one run; five-hit ball with 9 K’s and no walks.

In the series finale, Kansas City counters with Brian Bannister (0-1, 4.59, 1.302) who commands a 90-ish fastball that has late movement and curveball that has big sweeping motion. He pitched fairly well in first two starts in allowing three runs over 12+ innings but bullpen turned those potential wins into no-decision defeats. Bannister was smacked around at Toronto, which he blamed on poor mental preparation.

Game 3 Edge: Minnesota

For this week’s series selection, we bring in Rocky Atkinson of Rocketman Sports.com.

“I feel like Minnesota will win this series against Kansas City this weekend. Minnesota is 26-13 overall vs Kansas City the past 3 years including a very nice 14-4 at Kansas City. The key to this series is going to be the bullpens. Minnesota bullpen has a 2.62 ERA overall this year and a 1.45 ERA on the road this season. The Kansas City bullpen on the other hand, has been ripped this year with a 6.95 ERA overall and an 8.41 ERA at home on the season. Minnesota is third in runs scored and the Royals are dead last in the American League in runs allowed.”

Sportsbook.com series odds: Minnesota -155, Kansas City +125

**StarDust Bum** · 04-23-2010, 04:32 PM

Give me your old and feeble Friday night

The Boston Celtics looked like a bunch of old geezers the latter part of the schedule, but have found playoff basketball the perfect tonic for what ailed them. San Antonio is elderly at certain positions and too small to match up with Dallas, yet they return home 1-1. The Utah team bus can officially use their handicap sticker for parking with all their injuries, yet they could go up in the series over Denver with a win tonight.

Boston at Miami 7:00E ESPN

The Heat were a popular wager twice in Boston and they came up short both times as the Celtics went back to what they do best, play defense and take good shots. Playoff basketball can do that for team, the daily grind of the regular season is replaced by focusing on the strengths and weakness of just one foe, creating a singular mindset.

Boston is 13-1 and 10-4 ATS against Miami in just over three seasons of playing the Heat. This provides a certain comfort level not easily achieved, even performing on the postseason road.

“We’re figuring their backs are against the wall and they’re thinking that if they don’t get Game 3 then this is pretty much over,” Kevin Garnett said. “I know that’s what I would be thinking so we’re going to have to be ready for that.” Garnett’s team is 19-7 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more.

Miami is 7-23 ATS at home after playing consecutive road games yet is not showing panic outwardly. “Minor adjustments, of course, but energy, effort, mental, things like that. Those are the things we’ve been so good at so far this year,” Heat forward Udonis Haslem said. “We’ve got to get back to that.”

Sportsbook.com has Boston catching four points, with total of 182 and they are 22-11 ATS as visitors when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last two seasons. The C’s are 10-2 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more this year. The Heat will attempt to get off the canvas and are 28-13 ATS after allowing 105 points or more, coupled with 9-0 OVER mark off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points.

Dallas at San Antonio 9:30E ESPN

Tim Duncan, he of the aching knees, having lost a step of quickness and having hops like teammate Matt Bonner (ouch), yet is masquerading as the player he was 10 years ago, averaging 26 points and 12.5 rebounds against Dallas.

The Duncan drop-step is back and the lack of quicks has been replaced with smarter positioning to release shots faster before opponent can gather itself.

“For two or three weeks there toward the end of the season, I was starting to wear down a little bit,” Duncan stated. Off the 102-88 thumping, the Spurs are 10-3-1 ATS after breaking the century mark in points.

The Mavericks have looked a little too dependent on offense from Dirk Nowitzki thus far in the series, benefitting from his near perfect 36-point performance in Game 1 and sagging noticeably when he was 9-24 from the field, totaling up 24 points Wednesday night.

Dallas is 14-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite and needs production in the paint from their centers. In the opener Erick Dampier and Brandon Heywood totaled 15 points, in Game 2, a meaningless two points.

The Spurs are 3.5-point pick at the AT&T Center where they have covered seven of previous nine. Dallas is spirited 26-15 ATS on the road and 13-3 UNDER revenging a home loss.

Denver at Utah 10:30E ESPN2

If the shoulders of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer look a little bigger, it’s for good reason; they are forced to carry the load for Utah. Williams had 33 points and 14 assists in 114-111 upset in Denver and Boozer added 20 points and 15 rebounds as the injury-riddled Jazz tied the series.

“D-Will and Booze, they had their way,” said Nuggets point guard Chauncey Billups noted after the contest.

The action moves to Salt Lake City were the Jazz are 32-9 and 26-13-2 ATS, winning by 9.5 points per game. That places the onus on Denver and they are 29-12 ATS after consecutive tilts as a home favorite over the last two seasons.

“We missed some easy shots, some lay-ups and we kind of felt it at the end. But we know what we have to do. We’ll get one over there. It’s playoff basketball.” Johan Petro said.

Denver will have turn up defensive intensity, since it has been on low wattage, with Utah shooting 54.7 and 52.9 percent in initial two contests of the first round. It will be up to interim coach Adrian Dantley to convince his players to work as harder on the other end of the floor and they are 13-3 ATS after allowing 105 points or more three straight games.

The Jazz are a 2.5-point pick before what should be a roaring crowd and Utah is 8-1 ATS after two straight as an underdog this season. With the way this series is being played the listed total of 215.5 seems like forgone conclusion, however the Nuggets are is 8-0 UNDER away from home after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight skirmishes and coach Jerry Sloan’s club is 15-4 UNDER in home whites after scoring 110 points or more.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-23-2010, 04:33 PM

Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 4/23-4/25

Major League Baseball touts a full set of 15 series’ again this weekend, and a few divisional matchups along with some hot teams returning home will highlight the schedule. There figures to be a lot of intriguing betting opportunities over the next few days and I’m here to go over some of those. Of course, I will also reveal this weekend’s list of Top ******* Power Trends to keep an eye on. Head over to the GAME MATCHUPS page for more key betting info.

In the American League this weekend, Tampa Bay will return home after a historic road trip in which it went 9-1 at three different stops. The Rays’ offense exploded for five or more runs in all but two games on the 10-game trip. For the next three days they will play host to Toronto, who is headed in the opposite direction. The Jays, after winning five of their first six games, are just 4-6 since, and trail division leading Tampa by 3-games in the East standings. Elsewhere, the Mariners, fresh off a 7-2 homestand, start a 6-game road swing in the Windy City, taking on the Sox. Chicago is in the midst of a 1-6 stretch in which it totaled just 17 runs. Seattle has closed to within ½-game of the West lead behind Oakland. Speaking of hot teams, two of them will meet in Los Angeles this weekend, with the Angels hosting the Yankees. The Halos have taken 11 of the L15 meetings between these teams in Anaheim and come in on a run of 5-2 in their L7. However, the Yankees have won nine of their L11 games and have yielded just 16 runs in their last seven.

In the Senior Circuit, the Cardinals, tied for the league’s best mark at 10-5, continue their West Coast road trip with a stop in San Francisco. The Giants have gone cold by losing their last four games but will send Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, and Matt Cain to the hill in this 3-game set. In Milwaukee, the rivalry between the Cubs and Brewers will continue this weekend, with the hosts trying to extend an incredible stretch of hitting. Milwaukee has won four straight games, generating 47 runs on 57 hits in the process to climb to the top of the MLB ranks in runs scored per game at 6.5. At the same time, the Cubs are scoring just 3.0 RPG and batting .224 on the road, part of a 3-7 mark away from Wrigleyville. Chicago is 10-6 in Milwaukee over the last few seasons and did take two of three from the Crew in Chicago last week. Finally, in Cincinnati, the league’s hottest team in terms of winning streak, the Padres, put their 6-game stretch on the line at Cincinnati. San Diego hasn’t been on the road though since April 11th and has gone just 2-4 while hitting .218 away from home in 2010.

It should be a good weekend to test some handicapping theories on hot teams and home/road dichotomies. Here are some of the Top ******* Power Trends you’ll want to consider when analyzing each series:

LA DODGERS at WASHINGTON

LA DODGERS are 14-2 OVER (+12.0 Units) vs. NL teams allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 7.0, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 3*)

ATLANTA at NY METS

ATLANTA is 32-50 (-19.9 Units) against the money line in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 4.2, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)

SAN DIEGO at CINCINNATI

SAN DIEGO is 5-20 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.8, OPPONENT 6.6 - (Rating = 1*)

PITTSBURGH at HOUSTON

PITTSBURGH is 45-74 (-31.0 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.2, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*)

CHICAGO CUBS at MILWAUKEE

CHICAGO CUBS are 24-53 (-26.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .350 or better since 1997. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 4.4, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)

FLORIDA at COLORADO

COLORADO is 10-25 (-15.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 3.6, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)

PHILADELPHIA at ARIZONA

PHILADELPHIA is 31-15 (+13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.5, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)

ST LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO

SAN FRANCISCO is 53-34 (+20.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.2, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)

TORONTO at TAMPA BAY

TAMPA BAY is 9-1 (+9.0 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.9, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 2*)

BALTIMORE at BOSTON

BALTIMORE is 16-40 (-21.4 Units) against the money line vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.9, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)

DETROIT at TEXAS

TEXAS is 24-9 UNDER (+13.6 Units) in home games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 4.3, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)

MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY

KANSAS CITY is 14-40 (-25.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better since 1997. The average score was KANSAS CITY 4.2, OPPONENT 6.8 - (Rating = 1*)

SEATTLE at CHI WHITE SOX

WAKAMATSU is 27-15 (+13.0 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game as the manager of SEATTLE. The average score was SEATTLE 4.5, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)

CLEVELAND at OAKLAND

OAKLAND is 38-27 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 5.0, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)

NY YANKEES at LA ANGELS

LA ANGELS are 43-21 (+21.2 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.3, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 2*)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-23-2010, 04:35 PM

Inside the Paint - Friday

Only four underdogs have captured straight up road wins in this year’s playoffs so far and two of them are slated for Friday, when Dallas visits San Antonio and Utah hosts Denver. Those two Western Conference quarterfinals are all square at 1-1 after two games, which was the status of three best-of-seven series in the West.
The East has been the complete opposite of the West in the postseason so far and to no real surprise, considering conference was top-heavy all season long. However, the one playoff series that was deemed as a possible upset by the experts has been anything but. The matchup we’re talking about is the first-round battle between Boston and Miami. The Celtics have opened up a commanding 2-0 lead and if the Heat continues to play like they have, the broom could be broken out in South Beach this weekend.

Let’s look at each battle closer.

Wrong Favorite?

The Heat are coming off an embarrassing 29-point (77-106) loss in Game 2 at Boston, who was playing without Kevin Garnett (suspension), yet the oddsmakers have still made Miami a short favorite for Game 3 on Friday. From what’s transpired in the first two games, the third installment in this series has all the makings of a big old bear trap for Celtic backers.

If Miami was going to advance, most expected All-Star Dwyane Wade (27.5 PPG, 11 assists) to carry the team as he’s done on a regular basis. What’s surprising is that nobody expected the Heat’s supporting cast to play so bad in the first two losses. Center Jermaine O’Neal has gone a miserable 4-of-24 (16.6%) in the series while forward Michael Beasley (19 points) hasn’t come close to his expectations and the second overall pick in the 2008 NBA draft.

Should we expect a different effort at home from Miami? Or perhaps we should come to realize that the Heat’s 18-4 hot streak to the close the season is blown out of proportion. During that span since early March, only five of those wins came against playoffs teams and three were against the Bobcats, Bucks and Bulls (2), who are all facing early postseason holes as well.

Those following and backing Boston all season know that Doc Rivers and company have played better on the road (26-15 SU, 20-20 ATS) than at TD Garden. Still, the Celtics are catching points and they’ve gone 8-8 ATS in the role (road ‘dogs) this season.

Miami has gone 24-17 SU and 18-22 ATS at home this season. As favorites in South Beach, the Heat has posted a 14-18 ATS record. And unless you forgot, they’re laying points in Game 3. Miami did go 2-1 both SU and ATS at home in its first round battle against Atlanta in last year’s playoffs, which included a Game 3 blowout (107-78) at the Triple-A. However, they were swept by the Bulls three years ago in the postseason. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 over this span.

Sometimes in gambling, the line says everything and that could be the case here. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Miami pull a game closer, but it’s certainly hard to bet against Boston, who has won seven straight and 12 of the last 13 head-to-head meetings.

ESPN offers national coverage at 8:05 p.m. EDT.

Texas Tussle

The Spurs snapped a four-game losing streak to the Mavericks on Tuesday by capturing a 102-88 road win in Game 2 of their opening round series. San Antonio’s victory evened up the series and it now looks to take series lead on Friday. Tim Duncan led the charge with 25 points and 17 boards, as the Spurs led from the start and never looked back as plus-160 underdogs (Bet $100 to win $160) on the money-line.

Now with the series knotted at 1-1, San Antonio has become a short favorite (-120) in the best-of-seven series. The Spurs have posted a 29-12 SU and 24-17 ATS record at home this year, but that could be trumped with a 27-14 SU and 26-15 ATS mark by the Mavericks.

Even though Greg Popovich and company won Tuesday, Dallas still owns a 4-2 advantage over San Antonio this year. And it’s hard to ignore the results from last year’s playoff battle between the two, when the Mavs knocked out the Spurs in five games, which was also tied 1-1 after the first two games. In that series, Dallas captured two of its four victories at San Antonio.

San Antonio has been listed as a three-point favorite for tonight’s tilt and gamblers should be aware that the point-spread hasn’t mattered in the previous 16 encounters between the pair. If you like the Spurs, then lay the points and if you fancy the Mavs, then grab the money-line (+140).

Total players have watched the ‘under’ go 5-1 in the six meetings this season, but the numbers have been tight in the playoffs. Depending where you got the line in Game 1 (194) some folks could’ve gotten a push, win or loss in the Mavs’ 100-94 victory. In Tuesday’s affair, the combined 190 points slipped ‘under’ the 194 ½ point closing number and that was stuffed with a 36-point fourth quarter. The ‘over/under’ for Game 3 is hovering at 193 ½ points.

Tip-off for tonight’s tilt is set at 9:30 p.m. EDT, with ESPN covering the action.

Salt Lake Shootout

Utah evened up its first round series with Denver on Monday with a 114-11 road victory in Game 2 as a six-point underdog. The Jazz received a monster effort from point guard Deron Williams (33 points, 14 assists) plus the bench production from Paul Millsap (18 points) and Kyle Korver (13 points) was huge. The Nuggets came out flat in the first half (51 points) and the team could never muster up enough consistent shooting from 3-point land (4-of-18).

The series heads back to Salt Lake City, where Utah has produced a sizzling 32-9 SU and 27-13 ATS mark during the regular season. Oddsmakers have listed the Jazz as two-point home favorites and the number makes sense, when you look at Denver’s inconsistent road ledger (19-22 SU, 15-22 ATS) this season.

Despite the win, Denver has still won four of the six battles this season, which includes a 105-95 victory at Energy Solutions Arena on Jan. 2 this year. What’s even more impressive about that win is the Nuggets played without the duties of Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups.

While predicting a side in this contest could be argued both ways, the total has been one-sided in the six encounters this season. The ‘over’ has gone 5-1, plus the one ‘under’ ticket happened in the Nuggets’ aforementioned win above. And that total (201.5) missed by a couple points.

The total for Game 1 was listed at 208 and that number was adjusted to 213 for the second installment. For this battle, it’s jumped up four more points to 217. Did the books tweak this too much? The easiest way to put up points in basketball is from the free throw line, and that factored huge in Game 2. The Jazz (36/47) and Nuggets (37/44) went to the stripe 91 times and they converted an eye opening 73.

Since the two teams haven’t played since Monday, the rest vs. rust factor comes to play. It should be noted that both Denver (8-0 SU, 7-0 ATS) and Utah (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) have been incredible on three days of rest or more this year. The Nuggets have averaged 117 PPG during this span, which has helped the ‘over’ go 6-2.

ESPN 2 will provide coverage of tonight’s game at 10:35 p.m. EDT.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-23-2010, 04:36 PM

Playoff Results - First Round

First Round Results

Home teams are 15-4
Favorites are 14-5 straight up
Favorites are 11-8 against the spread
The 'over/under' tally is 7-8-4

Home Visitor Time/Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Saturday Apr 17, 2010
Cleveland (-11) Chicago 96-83 FAVORITE UNDER 193.5
Atlanta (-8.5) Milwaukee 102-92 FAVORITE OVER 186.5
Boston (-4.5) Miami 85-76 FAVORITE UNDER 184.5
Denver (-6) Utah 126-113 FAVORITE OVER 209

Sunday Apr 18, 2010
L.A. Lakers (-7.5) Oklahoma City 87-79 FAVORITE UNDER 19
Orlando (-10) Charlotte 98-89 UNDERDOG PUSH 187
Dallas (-4.5) San Antonio 100-94 FAVORITE PUSH 194
Phoenix Portland (+9) 105-100 UNDERDOG PUSH 205

Monday Apr 19, 2010
Cleveland (-10.5) Chicago 112-102 UNDERDOG OVER 191.5
Denver Utah (+6.5) 114-111 UNDERDOG OVER 213

Tuesday Apr 20, 2010
Atlanta (-7.5) Milwaukee 96-86 FAVORITE UNDER 188
Boston (-1) Miami 106-77 FAVORITE PUSH 183
Phoenix (-9) Portland 119-90 FAVORITE OVER 204
L.A. Lakers (-6) Oklahoma City 95-92 UNDERDOG UNDER 193

Wednesday Apr 21, 2010
Orlando (-9) Charlotte 92-77 FAVORITE UNDER 186
Dallas San Antonio (+3.5) 102-88 UNDERDOG UNDER 194.5

Thursday Apr 22, 2010
Chicago (+4.5) Cleveland 108-106 UNDERDOG OVER 193.5
Oklahoma City (-3.5) L.A. Lakers 101-96 FAVORITE OVER 193
Portland Phoenix (+1) 108-99 UNDERDOG UNDER 204

Friday Apr 23, 2010
Miami Boston 7:00 p.m.
San Antonio Dallas 9:30 p.m.
Utah Denver 10:30 p.m.

Saturday Apr 24, 2010
Charlotte Orlando 2:00 p.m.
Portland Phoenix 4:30 p.m.
Milwaukee Atlanta 7:00 p.m.
Oklahoma City L.A. Lakers 9:30 p.m.

Sunday Apr 25, 2010
Miami Boston 1:00 p.m.
Chicago Cleveland 3:30 p.m.
San Antonio Dallas 7:00 p.m.
Utah Denver 9:30 p.m.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-23-2010, 04:38 PM

Playoff Results - First Round

First Round Results

Favorites have gone 21-14
Home teams have gone 17-18
The 'over' is 13-13-9 through 35 games
Favorites that have won are 12-9 on the puck-line

Home Visitor Time/Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Wed Apr 14, 2010
Penguins Senators (+180) 5-4 UNDERDOG OVER 5.5
Devils Flyers (+145) 2-1 UNDERDOG UNDER 5
Coyotes (+100) Red Wings 3-2 UNDERDOG PUSH 5
Sharks Avalanche (+200 2-1 UNDERDOG UNDER 5.5

Thu Apr 15, 2010
Capitals Canadiens (+240) 3-2 UNDERDOG UNDER 6
Sabres (-155) Bruins 2-1 FAVORITE UNDER 5
Canucks (-185) Kings 3-2 (OT) FAVORITE UNDER 5.5

Fri Apr 16, 2010
Penguins (-300) Senators 2-1 FAVORITE UNDER 5.5
Devils (-180) Flyers 5-3 FAVORITE OVER 5
Blackhawks Predators (+210) 4-1 UNDERDOG PUSH 5
Coyotes Red Wings (-135) 7-4 FAVORITE OVER 5
Sharks (-270) Avalanche 6-5 (OT) FAVORITE OVER 5.5

Sat Apr 17, 2010
Sabres Bruins (+135) 5-3 UNDERDOG OVER 5
Capitals (-360) Canadiens 6-5 (OT) FAVORITE OVER 6
Canucks Kings (+160) 3-2 (OT) UNDERDOG PUSH

Sun Apr 18, 2010
Red Wings Coyotes (+170) 4-2 UNDERDOG OVER 5
Flyers (-110) Devils 3-2 (OT) FAVORITE PUSH
Senators Penguins (-130) 4-2 FAVORITE OVER 5.5
Blackhawks (-280) Predators 2-0 FAVORITE UNDER 5
Avalanche (+125) Sharks 1-0 (OT) UNDERDOG UNDER 5.5

Mon Apr 19, 2010
Canadiens Capitals (-175) 5-1 FAVORITE UNDER 5
Bruins (-135) Sabres 5-1 FAVORITE PUSH 6
Kings (-105) Canucks 5-3 UNDERDOG OVER 5

Tue Apr 20, 2010
Red Wings (-230) Coyotes 3-0 FAVORITE UNDER 5
Senators Penguins (-130) 7-4 FAVORITE OVER 5.5
Flyers (-110) Devils 4-1 FAVORITE PUSH 5
Predators (+125) Blackhawks 4-1 UNDERDOG PUSH 5
Avalanche Sharks (-175) 2-1 FAVORITE UNDER 5

Wed Apr 21, 2010
Canadiens Capitals (-185) 6-3 FAVORITE OVER 6
Bruins (-125) Sabres 3-2 (2OT) FAVORITE PUSH 5
Kings Canucks (-120) 6-4 FAVORITE OVER 6

Thu Apr 22, 2010
Penguins Senators (+260) 4-3 (3OT) UNDERDOG OVER 5.5
Devils Flyers (+160) 3-0 UNDERDOG UNDER 5
Predators Blackhawks (-155) 3-0 FAVORITE UNDER 5
Sharks (-250) Avalanche 5-0 FAVORITE UNDER 5.5

Fri Apr 23, 2010
Capitals Canadiens 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Sabres Bruins 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Canucks Kings 10:00 p.m. EDT - -
Coyotes Red Wings 10:00 p.m. EDT - -

Sat Apr 24, 2010
Blackhawks Predators 3:00 p.m. EDT - -
Senators Penguins 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Avalanche Sharks TBD - -

Sun Apr 25, 2010
Red Wings Coyotes 2:00 p.m. EDT - -
Kings Canucks TBD - -

**StarDust Bum** · 04-23-2010, 04:39 PM

Friday at the Diamond

I know that a lot of people will still be focusing on the second day of the NFL Draft, but Friday offers some nice matchups on the diamond. Let’s get a look at pair of the better contests to open up weekend series.

Blue Jays at Rays – 7:10 p.m. EDT

Toronto (9-6, +429) may have won its three-game series against the Royals, but they closed out the set with a 4-3 loss as a $1.15 home favorite on Wednesday afternoon. The setback keeps the Blue Jays three-games behind the Yanks in the American League East.

Cito Gaston will give Brett Cecil (0-0, 0.00) the starting nod for the series opener. Cecil was with the big team most of last year, compiling a 6-5 record and a 5.30 earned run average. He was just called up from AAA Las Vegas, where he’s gone 2-0 with an ERA of 2.45 and 11 strikeouts.

If there is anything that gamblers have taken to heart with the Jays is they’ve seen the ‘under’ hit in five straight games.

The Rays has come alive after rocky start to the year, winning eight of their last nine games. Tampa Bay (11-4, +528) has become true road warriors this season, posting a stellar 8-1 mark away from Tropicana Field.

Tampa Bay will entrust the starting duties for this contest to Matt Garza (3-0, 0.75 ERA). The Rays’ No. 2 starter put on a clinic last Sunday by hurling eight shutout innings in Boston en route to a 7-1 victory as $1.25 road pups.

The majority of betting outlets have listed the Rays as heavy $2.35 home faves (risk $235 to win $100) with a total of 8 ½. Toronto will garner you a great plus-195 return (risk $100 to win $195).

The ‘over’ has gone 8-7 for the Rays this season. Yet the totals for them at home are just 3-3, but the ‘over’ has cashed in their last three tilts in St. Pete.

Toronto has seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 in its six road tilts this year. In their past five road contests against AL East foes, the ‘under’ is 4-1.

Tampa Bay won last season’s overall series against the Jays with a 14-4 mark. The ‘under’ was the right totals play, evidenced by a 12-6 record.

Something else to chew on is that the Blue Jays are 1-4 over the last two seasons when listed between $1.80 and $2.00 road underdogs against AL East foes.

Yankees at Angels – 10:05 p.m. EDT

Most sportsbooks have posted the Yankees as $1.40 road favorites with a total of 9 ½. Bettors can back the Angels for a plus-120 return.

If you’ve been betting New York (11-3, +752) this season on the run line, you’ve been a happy camper. That’s because the Yanks have covered won by at least two runs in all 11 of their victories this season.

A.J. Burnett (2-0, 2.37) will take to the mound with hopes of keeping the Bronx Bombers at their high level of play. Burnett is coming off of a quality outing at home against the Rangers, where he struck out seven and allowed no earned runs on seven innings of work.

Burnett has gone 2-2 with a 4.43 ERA in six career starts against the Halos. But he was 1-0 with an ERA of 4.26 in two starts against them last year. Bobby Abreu has had the most consistent success against New York’s starter for Friday; going 20-for-64 with a homer and 11 runs batted in for his career. Torrii Hunter has just two hits in 23 at bats against Burnett, but both of those knocks were home runs.

Los Angeles (8-8, -136) comes into this contest with Ervin Santana (1-2, 4.35) getting the starting nod. He owns a 5-3 record and an ERA of 5.50 in nine starts against the Yankees. In his last two home starts against New York, Santana is 0-1 with a 6.69 ERA.

Even though the Yanks beat LA in the American League Championship Series, they struggled in the regular season. During the campaign, the Angels were 4-2 in six contests at Angels Stadium of Anaheim.

Random Knowledge

--Ricky Nolasco (1-0, 3.74) has done well for the Marlins this year. And he’ll be taking the mound for Florida against the Rockies as a $1.30 road “chalk” at 9:10 p.m. EDT. Nolasco has gone 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in four appearances against Colorado.

--Jaime Garcia (1-0, 0.69) might be enjoying some early success in his young career for the Cards, but they’re still $1.50 road pups against San Francisco. That might have somethin got do with the fact they’re going up against Tim Lincecum. All the Giants’ staff ace has done is go 4-0 with a 1.61 ERA in four starts against the Cardinals.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-23-2010, 04:40 PM

Diamond Trends - Friday

Yankees at Angels – The Yankees are 8-0 since June 14, 2009 when A.J. Burnett starts after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $825. The Angels are 0-6 since September 01, 2009 when Ervin Santana starts vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $735 when playing against.

Pirates at Astros – The Pirates are 0-9 since May 08, 2009 on the road when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Astros are 10-0 since August 06, 2004 when Roy Oswalt starts at home vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000.

Indians at Athletics – The Indians are 0-7 since August 14, 2009 as a road 140+ dog and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Cubs at Brewers – The Cubs are 0-7 since September 03, 2008 when Ryan Dempster starts as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches at home for a net profit of $1080 when playing against. The Cubs are 9-0 since August 23, 2009 vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1090. The Brewers are 0-6 since August 25, 2009 after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $625 when playing against.

Phillies at Diamondbacks – The Phillies are 0-6 since June 26, 2009 when Cole Hamels starts as a road favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $835 when playing against. The League is 0-9 since August 14, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a loss in which they did not walk the opponent for a net profit of $900 when playing against.

Cardinals at Giants – The League is 0-13 since October 01, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $1300 when playing against. The Giants are 8-0 since May 23, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base as a dog for a net profit of $800.

Braves at Mets – The Braves are 9-0 since September 10, 2009 when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $975. The Mets are 6-0 since April 27, 2009 when John Maine starts at home vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $620.

Dodgers at Nationals – The Nationals are 0-11 since April 13, 2009 after a loss in which they had at least five more team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $1105 when playing against.

Tigers at Rangers – The League is 7-0 since September 18, 2009 at home after a win in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $760. The Rangers are 6-0 since June 30, 2009 as an favorite vs a team that has a better record for a net profit of $600.

Blue Jays at Rays – The League is 0-11 since September 02, 2009 as a road 170+ dog after a loss in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $1100 when playing against. The Rays are 7-0 since June 06, 2009 after a win in which they had more than ten team-left-on-base for a net profit of $780.

Padres at Reds – The Reds are 6-0 since September 01, 2009 as a favorite after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $600. The Reds are 0-6 since April 24, 2009 after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $610 when playing against.

Orioles at Red Sox – The Orioles are 0-10 since September 23, 2009 on the road when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.. The Red Sox are 11-0 since July 18, 2006 when Jon Lester starts as a 200+ favorite vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $1100.

Marlins at Rockies – The League is 0-9 since July 19, 2009 as a home dog after a win in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base as a favorite for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Rockies are 7-0 since August 13, 2009 at home after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $700

Twins at Royals – The Twins are 7-0 since June 18, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $700. The Royals are 0-8 since May 14, 2009 when Gil Meche starts at home vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $825 when playing against.

Mariners at White Sox – The White Sox are 10-0 since April 12, 2008 when Gavin Floyd starts at home after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $1020. The White Sox are 0-7 since August 10, 2009 when Gavin Floyd starts vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $810 when playing against.

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