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**StarDust Bum** · 04-22-2010, 06:58 PM

Thursday Tips

Three playoff series shift venues for Game 3's on Thursday as a pair of home teams look to dig out of 2-0 holes. The Bulls have dropped a pair of games to the Cavs by double-digits while the Thunder fell short of an upset at Los Angeles on Tuesday. Portland stole home-court advantage against Phoenix with a victory in the series opener, but the Suns evened the series with a blowout in Game 2.

Cavs at Bulls - 7:00 PM EST

Cleveland has rolled along through the first two games even though Chicago has put a scare into LeBron James and the Cavs. The Bulls have hung around at times during the first two losses, but are reminding the Cavs that they aren't going away. Chicago needs to pick up a victory in Game 3 or it will be likely packing its bags for the off-season.

The Cavs failed to cover as 10 ½-point favorites in Game 2 with a 112-102 triumph at Quicken Loans Arena. James led the way with 40 points while the Cavs shot a blistering 56% from the floor. The Bulls received a team-high 25 points from an unlikely source, Cleveland-basher Joakim Noah. The ex-Florida Gator also pulled down 13 rebounds, but it wasn't enough to even the series. The 'over' hit for just the third time in the last seven meetings, easily cashing tickets with a 60-point final quarter.

The Bulls have been listed as a home underdog only five times since Christmas, going 2-3 ATS, including a cover as ten-point 'dogs against the Cavs on March 19. Chicago managed to cash without the services of Noah, Derrick Rose, and Luol Deng, all who were out due to injury. The 'under' has been drilled in 12 of the last 17 games, including seven of the last nine at the United Center.

The next stat will have to be taken with a grain of salt, but the Cavs are 3-9 ATS the last 12 games, while going 2-4 ATS the previous six as a road favorite. Granted, four of those games were played without James, as the Cavs rested their star after locking up home-court advantage in the playoffs. Cleveland is 4-8 ATS when laying 4 ½ points or less, including a 1-4 ATS ledger the last five.

Cleveland is listed as 3 ½-point road favorites at most spots, while the total is set at 193.

Lakers at Thunder - 9:35 PM EST

The Lakers expended every last ounce of energy to hold off the feisty Thunder in Game 2 by a 95-92 count. Both teams didn't shoot well in either game from the floor, but Kobe Bryant blew up for 39 points in the Game 2 victory to give the Champs a 2-0 series advantage.

The venue moves to the Ford Center for the first-ever playoff game in Oklahoma City. The Thunder was a profitable 19-15 ATS as a home favorite this season, but just 7-7 ATS against playoff opponents. OKC owns a solid 13-5 SU/ATS mark at home off a loss, while going 25-8 ATS overall off a defeat this season.

The Lakers are a dreadful 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS as a road underdog of less than 3 ½ points, while the 'under' has been cashed in nine of 12 games as a road 'dog of below 6 ½ points. Los Angeles split a pair of games at the Ford Center, including an overtime victory in early November, 101-98. The Thunder managed a cover as seven-point 'dogs despite allowing 52% shooting from the floor. OKC avenged that loss with a 91-75 trouncing of the Lakers at the Ford Center on March 26, limiting L.A. to 39% shooting.

The Thunder is listed as a 3 ½-point favorite in many spots with the total set at 191.

Suns at Blazers - 10:00 PM EST

Phoenix put away Portland early in a decisive 119-90 thrashing of the Blazers in Tuesday's Game 2. The Suns have evened the series at a game apiece, while holding Portland to a dismal 38% shooting from the field. Phoenix now heads up the coast to the Rose Garden where Alvin Gentry's team has struggled to win lately with three straight losses at Portland.

The Blazers are 12-5 SU at home off a loss, including a 6-2 SU mark at home off a road defeat. Brandon Roy remains out with a knee injury, but swingman Nicolas Batum re-injured his right shoulder after colliding with Suns' guard Steve Nash in the second half of the Game 2 loss. Batum missed the first half of the season with a torn labrum in his right shoulder, creating more of a depth issue for Portland if he can't go in Game 3.

The Suns haven't had much success in Oregon, including a 105-102 loss at the Rose Garden on December 17 as 1 ½-point underdogs. Phoenix gave away a 15-point lead in the second half while getting outscored, 35-21 in the final quarter. Each of the last three meetings in Portland has all eclipsed the 'over.'

Phoenix is just 7-10 SU and 9-8 ATS as a road underdog off a win, as the Suns will try to get more bench production in Game 3 after Nash, Grant Hill, Amare Stoudemire, and Jason Richardson combined for 80 of the team's 119 points.

The Blazers are listed as one-point favorites with the total set at 204 ½.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-22-2010, 06:59 PM

Phoenix at Portland, Game 3

The Numbers

Portland opened as a 1.5-point favorite over Phoenix for Game Three with the total set at 205. That over/under is higher than both games played in Phoenix which is rather surprising as the under has been more frequent in Suns road games and Blazers home games.

The Skinny

Portland is feeling pretty good about things after leaving Phoenix with a series split and heading home for the next two games. Obviously the Suns are not feeling as good but they should have some confidence following a huge 29-point win on Tuesday.

The Blazers have won three of the five meetings this season including the lone game played at the Rose Garden. Portland came back from a 15-point deficit in that game as it outscored the Suns 35-21 in the final period and held on for the three-point win.

Game One losers have gone on to win best-of-seven series only 21 percent of the time which did not bode well for the Suns which extended its playoff run to a dismal 1-7 going back to 2007. It gets a lot better for the home-court-advantage teams when they win Game Two for a split however as those teams have gone on to win the series 63 percent of the time.

With or Without Roy

Not many people were giving Portland much of a chance following the loss of Brandon Roy, who is sitting out with a torn meniscus in his knee. With the series extended at least to five games, there is actually a chance Roy could see some action in the later games because the surgery went so well.

This would be huge for the Blazers and if they can get a split at home, it would give home court back to Phoenix but it would buy them some more time. During the regular season, Roy missed 17 games in January and February and the Blazers went 7-10 in those games. Surprisingly, Portland is 2-1 in games against the Suns with Roy riding the pine.

Andre Miller has filled in great and he lit the Suns up for 31 points and eight assists in Game One. However, the Suns gave Grant Hill the lead defensive assignment on Miller instead of Jason Richardson. Not only did Miller find the going tougher, Richardson seemed energized at the other end.

Tempo Wins

The pace of the game has determined who has won so far. In Game One, Portland controlled the tempo and even though there were more shots attempted by both teams, it went to the Blazers advantage. In that first game, the Suns had just four fast break points but they had seven by the middle of the first quarter in Game Two on their way to 17 fast break points overall.

The key for the Blazers is to shorten the game and that means playing their normal style of basketball. On the season, they attempted the fifth fewest shots in the league at 78.7 per game which is right around their average through the first two games here. It will be the defensive end however that makes the difference.

Phoenix has put up an average of 88.5 shots per game in this series and on the season, the Blazers are allowing only 77.5 attempts, the second fewest in the NBA. It is safe to say that they will have a much better chance of knocking off Phoenix if it can come anywhere near that average.

Trends

The home team is 6-2-1 ATS the last nine meetings while the favorite is 19-7-2 ATS the last 28 meetings.

Phoenix has done very well against the better teams in the league, going 14-4 ATS against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .700.

The Blazers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game.

The ‘Under’ is 5-1-1 in the Suns last seven games following a double-digit win while the ‘Under’ is 6-0 in the Blazers last six games following a double-digit loss.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-22-2010, 07:02 PM

On the Brink

Every game in the Stanley Cup Playoffs are do or die. But Thursday’s slate of action has two tests where teams are literally playing for their playoff lives. The Senators and Devils are both down three-games-to-one and facing elimination on Thursday night 7:05 p.m. EDT.

Ottawa finds itself facing the precipice after a 7-4 setback as a $1.10 home underdog in Game 4 on April 20 to the Penguins. Things weren’t going well for the Sens from the start as netminder Brian Elliot got lit up for four goals on 19 shots in 26 minutes of work. Pascal Leclaire didn’t fare much better between the pipes in giving up three goals on 23 shots.

We could pinpoint the fact that the Senators are still relatively young (average age around 28-years old), but the special teams is their culprit. Ottawa was able to stop 84.3 percent of the power plays they faced during the regular season. In four playoff games, the Sens have allowed Pittsburgh to scored five power play goals on 19 chances.

The betting shops aren’t giving the Sens much of a chance to push this back to Scotiabank Place. Pittsburgh has been installed as a heavy $2.90 home favorite (risk $290 to win $100) with a total of 5 ½. A plus side for Ottawa fans is they can get plus-262 back on their team to force Game 6.

There isn’t much reason for optimism for Ottawa to make the miraculous comeback. They’ve forced a Game 7 after going down 3-1 just once in franchise history (2003 East Final vs. New Jersey). What gamblers need to keep in mind is the Sens are 4-6 in their last 10 elimination games, covering the puck line in six of those contests. The ‘under’ is 7-3 as well.

New Jersey will also be holding on for dear life on Thursday night at home against the Flyers. “Fight” might not be the best word to describe the Devils’ chances at the present.

The Devils find themselves dangerously close to their third straight first round exit after falling 4-1 to Philadelphia as $1.10 road faves in Game 4. Martin Brodeur had a bad night, stopping just 24 of 28 shots on goal.

Brodeur hasn’t been his usual self against the Flyers in this series, posting a shoddy .886 save percentage. Of course, you can’t blame him for the lack of offensive firepower New Jersey has displayed. The Devils were scoring 2.60 goals per game during the regular season. In four postseason games, they have averaged 2.22 GPG.

Zach Parise led the Devs with 38 goals during the regular season, but visited the red lamp district once in the playoffs. Ilya Kovalchuk has found the back of the net twice against Philly…that’s two more than Jamie Langenbrunner in the playoffs. Langenbrunner has been quite disappointing considering that he had 19 goals in the regular season.

Most betting outlets believe that New Jersey will live to fight another day by installing them as a $1.66 home favorite (risk $166 to win $100) with a total of five.

The Devils have been a stellar wager when posted as home favorites after a loss as road faves this season, going 5-1 in this situation. Of course, that flies squarely in the fact that NJ is 3-5 SU and on the puck line in its last eight elimination games.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-22-2010, 07:03 PM

Playoff Results - First Round

First Round Results

Favorites have gone 19-12
Home teams have gone 16-15
The 'over' is 12-10-9 through 31 games
Favorites that have won are 10-9 on the puck-line

Home Visitor Time/Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Wed Apr 14, 2010
Penguins Senators (+180) 5-4 UNDERDOG OVER 5.5
Devils Flyers (+145) 2-1 UNDERDOG UNDER 5
Coyotes (+100) Red Wings 3-2 UNDERDOG PUSH 5
Sharks Avalanche (+200 2-1 UNDERDOG UNDER 5.5

Thu Apr 15, 2010
Capitals Canadiens (+240) 3-2 UNDERDOG UNDER 6
Sabres (-155) Bruins 2-1 FAVORITE UNDER 5
Canucks (-185) Kings 3-2 (OT) FAVORITE UNDER 5.5

Fri Apr 16, 2010
Penguins (-300) Senators 2-1 FAVORITE UNDER 5.5
Devils (-180) Flyers 5-3 FAVORITE OVER 5
Blackhawks Predators (+210) 4-1 UNDERDOG PUSH 5
Coyotes Red Wings (-135) 7-4 FAVORITE OVER 5
Sharks (-270) Avalanche 6-5 (OT) FAVORITE OVER 5.5

Sat Apr 17, 2010
Sabres Bruins (+135) 5-3 UNDERDOG OVER 5
Capitals (-360) Canadiens 6-5 (OT) FAVORITE OVER 6
Canucks Kings (+160) 3-2 (OT) UNDERDOG PUSH

Sun Apr 18, 2010
Red Wings Coyotes (+170) 4-2 UNDERDOG OVER 5
Flyers (-110) Devils 3-2 (OT) FAVORITE PUSH
Senators Penguins (-130) 4-2 FAVORITE OVER 5.5
Blackhawks (-280) Predators 2-0 FAVORITE UNDER 5
Avalanche (+125) Sharks 1-0 (OT) UNDERDOG UNDER 5.5

Mon Apr 19, 2010
Canadiens Capitals (-175) 5-1 FAVORITE UNDER 5
Bruins (-135) Sabres 5-1 FAVORITE PUSH 6
Kings (-105) Canucks 5-3 UNDERDOG OVER 5

Tue Apr 20, 2010
Red Wings (-230) Coyotes 3-0 FAVORITE UNDER 5
Senators Penguins (-130) 7-4 FAVORITE OVER 5.5
Flyers (-110) Devils 4-1 FAVORITE PUSH 5
Predators (+125) Blackhawks 4-1 UNDERDOG PUSH 5
Avalanche Sharks (-175) 2-1 FAVORITE UNDER 5

Wed Apr 21, 2010
Canadiens Capitals (-185) 6-3 FAVORITE OVER 6
Bruins (-125) Sabres 3-2 (2OT) FAVORITE PUSH 5
Kings Canucks (-120) 6-4 FAVORITE OVER 6

Thu Apr 22, 2010
Penguins Senators 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Devils Flyers 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Predators Blackhawks 8:30 p.m. EDT - -
Sharks Avalanche 10:30 p.m. EDT - -

Fri Apr 23, 2010
Capitals Canadiens 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Sabres Bruins 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Canucks Kings 10:00 p.m. EDT - -
Coyotes Red Wings 10:00 p.m. EDT - -

Sat Apr 24, 2010
Blackhawks Predators 3:00 p.m. EDT - -
Senators Penguins 7:00 p.m. EDT - -
Avalanche Sharks TBD - -

Sun Apr 25, 2010
Red Wings Coyotes 2:00 p.m. EDT - -
Flyers Devils TBD - -
Kings Canucks TBD

**StarDust Bum** · 04-22-2010, 07:05 PM

Playoff Results - First Round

First Round Results

Home teams are 13-3
Favorites are 13-3 straight up
Favorites are 10-6 against the spread
The 'over/under' tally is 5-7-4

Home Visitor Time/Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Saturday Apr 17, 2010
Cleveland (-11) Chicago 96-83 FAVORITE UNDER 193.5
Atlanta (-8.5) Milwaukee 102-92 FAVORITE OVER 186.5
Boston (-4.5) Miami 85-76 FAVORITE UNDER 184.5
Denver (-6) Utah 126-113 FAVORITE OVER 209

Sunday Apr 18, 2010
L.A. Lakers (-7.5) Oklahoma City 87-79 FAVORITE UNDER 19
Orlando (-10) Charlotte 98-89 UNDERDOG PUSH 187
Dallas (-4.5) San Antonio 100-94 FAVORITE PUSH 194
Phoenix Portland (+9) 105-100 UNDERDOG PUSH 205

Monday Apr 19, 2010
Cleveland (-10.5) Chicago 112-102 FAVORITE OVER 191.5
Denver Utah (+6.5) 114-111 UNDERDOG OVER 213

Tuesday Apr 20, 2010
Atlanta (-7.5) Milwaukee 96-86 FAVORITE UNDER 188
Boston (-1) Miami 106-77 FAVORITE PUSH 183
Phoenix (-9) Portland 119-90 FAVORITE OVER 204
L.A. Lakers (-6) Oklahoma City 95-92 UNDERDOG UNDER 193

Wednesday Apr 21, 2010
Orlando (-9) Charlotte 92-77 FAVORITE UNDER 186
Dallas San Antonio (+3.5) 102-88 UNDERDOG UNDER 194.5

Thursday Apr 22, 2010
Chicago Cleveland 7:00 p.m.
Oklahoma City L.A. Lakers 9:30 p.m.
Portland Phoenix 10:00 p.m.

Friday Apr 23, 2010
Miami Boston 7:00 p.m.
San Antonio Dallas 9:30 p.m.
Utah Denver 10:30 p.m.

Saturday Apr 24, 2010
Charlotte Orlando 2:00 p.m.
Portland Phoenix 4:30 p.m.
Milwaukee Atlanta 7:00 p.m.
Oklahoma City L.A. Lakers 9:30 p.m.

Sunday Apr 25, 2010
Miami Boston 1:00 p.m.
Chicago Cleveland 3:30 p.m.
San Antonio Dallas 7:00 p.m.
Utah Denver 9:30 p.m.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-22-2010, 07:07 PM

Diamond Trends - Thursday

Tigers at Angels – The Angels are 9-0 since August 01, 2006 when Joe Saunders starts at home within 20 cents of pickem after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $935.

Marlins at Astros – The Marlins are 8-0 since May 30, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800. The Astros are 7-0 since June 11, 2009 as a dog after a one run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $925.

Yankees at Athletics – The Yankees are 12-0 since July 18, 2009 when CC Sabathia starts vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $1200. The Yankees are 10-0 since May 15, 2009 after scoring 3 runs or less and winning as a favorite for a net profit of $1000. The Athletics are 11-1 since September 02, 2007 when Dallas Braden starts as a dog after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $1415. The League is 0-10 since September 05, 2009 as a home 140+ dog when they are off two losses in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.

Phillies at Braves – The Phillies are 0-5 since May 07, 2009 when Jamie Moyer starts as a dog vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $500 when playing against. The Braves are 6-0 since June 30, 2009 when Derek Lowe starts as a favorite after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $600.

Cubs at Mets – The League is 0-12 since October 01, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $1200 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-6 since May 05, 2009 as a dog after a win and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Mets are 0-7 since April 29, 2009 when Johan Santana starts as a favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1025 when playing against. The Mets are 0-8 since June 02, 2009 as a favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $915 when playing against.

Rockies at Nationals – The Rockies are 7-0 since July 06, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start for a net profit of $700. The Rockies are 8-0 since May 06, 2009 when Ubaldo Jimenez starts as a 140+ favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $800.

Brewers at Pirates – The Brewers are 6-0 since September 12, 2009. after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $780. The League is 0-10 since September 05, 2009 as a home 140+ dog when they are off two losses in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.. The Pirates are 0-8 since June 20, 2009 vs a team that has won at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Rangers at Red Sox – The Rangers are 0-10 since August 11, 2009 as a dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Rangers are 0-8 since September 15, 2009 after a loss in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $910 when playing against.

Dodgers at Reds – The Dodgers are 6-0 since July 05, 2009 on the road after playing as a favorite and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $655. The Reds are 0-6 since August 03, 2009 at home after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $625 when playing against.

Indians at Twins – The Twins are 12-0 since June 25, 2009 when Scott Baker starts as a favorite after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $1200. The Indians are 0-10 since September 09, 2009 as a dog when they are off two losses in which they never led for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The League is 0-10 since April 16, 2010 as a dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.

Rays at White Sox – The Rays are 0-6 since April 23, 2009 on the road within 20 cents of pickem after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $615 when playing against. The White Sox are 8-0 since April 11, 2009 at home within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $815.

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The Bum's Thursday's Best Bets MLB-NHL-NBA !

The Bum's Thursday's Best Bets MLB-NHL-NBA !

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